Professor Hugh Montgomery
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The document discusses the impacts of climate change on health and resilience. It raises three key questions: how environmental factors exacerbate diseases, how globalization of risks will affect resilience structures, and the implications of increased displacement. It notes climate change is causing issues like higher temperatures, more extreme weather, water scarcity and rising seas that threaten infrastructure and increase diseases. Maintaining health systems under these climate pressures combined with existing economic issues will be difficult. Urgent prevention is needed given the challenges of curing or palliating climate-related health impacts.
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Professor Hugh Montgomery
- 1. Climate Change andand UK Health System Resilience
- 2. THREE QUESTIONS • How are the impacts of both non-communicable and infectious diseases exacerbated by environmental factors? • How will the globalisation of environmental and health risks affect future resilience structures? • What are the likely implications of increased numbers of displaced persons & refugees?
- 3. THREE QUESTIONS • How are the impacts of both non-communicable and infectious diseases exacerbated by environmental factors? • How will the globalisation of environmental and health risks affect future resilience structures? • What are the likely implications of increased numbers of displaced persons & refugees?
- 5. MORE PEOPLE
- 6. FISH 154 billion kg annually 18.8kg per capita Fish use Food use (kg/capita) CROPS 2.25 trillion kg/year CATTLE 46.6 kg per person use (billion kg)
- 8. • 1 kg of wheat needs 1350 litres of water. • 1 kg of rice needs 3000 litres of water. • 15,000 litres of water / kg meat. MORE WATER • CHINA: Hai river supplemented by aquifer 40 trillion litres/y (40 billion kg grain feeding 120m people) • Iran: overpump 5 billion tonnes water/year (1/3 annual grain harvest) • North Gujarat: water table falling 6m/year • Colorado River Basin lost 65 cubic kilometers (15.6 cubic miles) of water from 2004 to 2013
- 9. Since 1970, we have lost: • 55% of worlds animals 83% of Latin American animals LESS LIFE WWF/ IoZ/ ZSL May 2014 LIVING PLANET INDEX Abundance of 555 terrestrial species, 323 freshwater species, and 267 marine species around the world • 76% of freshwater species • 39% or all marine life
- 10. MORE…CO2
- 11. Earth is gaining energy: 1.6 W/m2 20x human energy use. HEAT 5/sec (285 per minute = 400,000 a day = 146 million/ year)
- 12. WEATHER
- 13. HEALTH IMPACTS Respiratory disease Loss of crops Ground level ozone increase Pollen allergenicity and burden Cardiovascular disease Mental Health Impacts StarvationDrought Reduced Physical Work Capacity Ecosystem Collapse Fires Heatwaves Vector-borne diseases Bacterial diseases High Rainfall Events Poverty Algal blooms Sea level rise Mass Migration WARDiarrhoea Chemical poisoning Reduced Physical Work Capacity Flooding Loss of Habitation
- 14. “..a 4 degrees C future is incompatible with an organised global community, is likely to be beyond “adaptation,”… and has a high probability of not being stable (i.e., 4 degrees C would be an interim Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 13 January 2011 stable (i.e., 4 degrees C would be an interim temperature on the way to a much higher equilibrium level).”
- 15. • Navy Adm. Samuel J. Locklear III, who leads the U.S. Pacific Command: global warming is "the most likely thing ... [to] cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the otherenvironment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about."
- 16. • Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen: “Climate change’s potential impacts are sobering and far-reaching… “Scarcity of water, food and space could create“Scarcity of water, food and space could create not only a humanitarian crisis, but create conditions that could lead to failed states, instability and, potentially, radicalization.”
- 17. THREE QUESTIONS • How are the impacts of both non-communicable and infectious diseases exacerbated by environmental factors? • How will the globalisation of environmental and health risks affect future resilience structures? • What are the likely implications of increased numbers of displaced persons & refugees?
- 18. IS ADAPTATION POSSIBLE? HEATWAVES Summer temperatures >40oC • Heat ‘hotels’: – How Predict? Alert? Service? Fund? • How get people there? – Roads already ‘regularly’ beyond softening temp of 50oC – UK rail is stressed to only 27oC
- 19. MAINTAIN OUR HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE AT TIME OF • Economic pressures (existing) • New economic pressures (climate) • Climate-driven increases in demand• Climate-driven increases in demand – Resp – CVS – Bacterial – Mental – Migrants
- 20. URGENT PREVENTION IS NEEDEDURGENT PREVENTION IS NEEDED WHEN CURE IS IMPOSSIBLE ANDWHEN CURE IS IMPOSSIBLE AND PALLIATION HARD.PALLIATION HARD.PALLIATION HARD.PALLIATION HARD.