The document discusses climate change science and the role of youth. It provides an overview of the causes and impacts of climate change, including increasing global temperatures, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather events. It also summarizes observed and projected climate trends in Nepal, such as increasing temperatures, more heavy rainfall events, and glacial retreat in the Himalayas. The role of youth in understanding and responding to climate change through adaptation efforts is emphasized.

1. Climate Change Science & Role of Youth Dhiraj Pradhananga The Small Earth Nepal

2. ?????? WHY our EARTH is small? What are the major pressures to the EARTH? Causes for climate change? Global, Regional, National, Local Climate Change? What are its impacts? What can we do? Adaptation to Climate Change? OUR Role ?

3. ????? Aim of the Presentation To enable us to understand the climate change science and its consequences Objectives of the Presentation Human Pressure on the Earth Review on Climate Change Science Review - climate change impacts Adaptation to climate change Observed & Projected climate change in Nepal GCM & RCM (Climate scenario & climate change scenario) All Nepal & Local – Climate Change

4. Major causes of pressure to the Earth??

6. 09/27/11 SEN-DP

8. Human Impacts

9. Human Activities and Environment During 100 yrs (1900 – 2000) Population 4*, Economic 20*, fossil fuels 30*, industry 50* Dynamic development provides explosive global environmental impact Disappearance of species 0.17% per year Desertification 6*10 6 Km 2 per year Deforestation 17*10 6 Km 2 per year Soil oxidation & erosion 26*10 9 Km 2 per year Increase in CO 2 since 1850 30%

10. Environmental Problems The pressure on the environment is high and can be observed worldwide Local disturbance to climate change Polluted ground/water to acidification Dispersion of chemical in nature to waste disposal Melting of ice-caps/glaciers to deforestation and desertification Road accident to natural disasters

11. Ecological Significance energy and material consumption for the last 4 decades is faster than population growth an irresistible economy seems to be on a collision course on within immovable ecosphere

12. The Living Planet Index measures trends in the Earth’s biological diversity 09/27/11 SEN-DP Between 1970 and 2003, the index fell by about 30%. This global trend suggests that we are degrading natural ecosystems at a rate unprecedented in human history. Biodiversity suffers when the planet's biocapacity cannot keep pace with human consumption and waste generation Since the late 1980s, we have been in overshoot–the Ecological Footprint has exceeded the Earth’s biocapacity–as of 2003 by about 25%.

13. Living Planet Report 2000 (30 years from 1970 to 1997) Earth’s natural ecosystems has declined by 33% Ecological pressure of humanity on the Earth has increased by 50% 09/27/11 SEN-DP Ecological pressure of an average consumer in the industrialized countries is FOUR times that of an average consumer in the lower income countries

14. Living in Capital not Interest Effectively, the Earth’s regenerative capacity can no longer keep up with demand – people are turning resources into waste faster than nature can turn waste back into resources. Humanity is no longer living off nature’s interest, but drawing down its capital. This growing pressure on ecosystems is causing habitat destruction or degradation and permanent loss of productivity, threatening both biodiversity and human well-being. 09/27/11 SEN-DP

15. The Global Aspects Taught by Gandhi “ If every inhabitant of this earth were to consume as much as the inhabitants of the wealthy countries, we would need a second Earth .” But the present data tells us we already need a third Earth if everyone consumed the same amount of fossil fuel.

16. Natural disasters

17. Loss of Biodiversity

18. Pollution: Air, Water and Land

19. Climate Change and Its Consequences The Greatest Challenge Basics of Climate Change What is it meant for us?

20. What is giving cause for concern? Weather has been more chaotic and extreme (hurricanes, droughts, floods) Glaciers are shrinking Animals moving to cooler places Global temperature has increased by 0.74 o C

22. Source: IPCC-AR4 Global Mean Temperature Accelerating Rate of warming (°C per decade) 1850 – 2005 => 0.045 1905 – 2005 => 0.074 1955 – 2005 => 0.128 1980 – 2005 => 0.177 Warmest 12 years: 2005, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995, 2000, 1999

23. Anthropogenic climate change (Global Warming) Climate change is already under way and will increasingly affect the basic elements of life for people around the world.

24. " Adverse effects of climate change" means changes in the physical environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health and welfare ” (Art 1. UNFCCC, 1992). Calorie availability in 2050 is likely to have declined relative to 2000 levels throughout the developing world, resulting in 24 million additional malnourished children , 21% more relative to a world without climate change (IFPRI, 2009).

25. Vulnerability of developing world to climate change Rely on climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries Low GDP, high levels of poverty Low levels of education Limited human, institutional, economic, technical and financial capacity Key sectors hardest hit by climate change Water resources Food production Human health Ecosystem and natural resources

26. Millions at risk

27. Climate Change Science What is the major cause of CHANGE?

28. Three factors affect how warm the planet is: Distance from the sun Albedo effect Chemical composition of the atmosphere

29. It is the chemical composition which has changed the most significantly in the last 200 years

30. Some of the main greenhouse gases Name Pre-ind conc ppmv 1998 con ppmv Atmosph lifetime yr Main anthropogenic source GWP Water 1 to 3 1 to 3 Few days CO 2 280 365 Variable Fossil fuels, cement, land use change 1 CH 4 0.7 1.75 12 Fossil fuels, rice paddy, waste dumps, livestock 23 N 2 0 0.27 0.31 114 Fertilizers, combustion 296 CHF 3 0 0.000014 260 Electronics, refrigerant 12000 SF 6 0 0.0000042 3200 Dielectric fluid 22200

31. Two important points Greenhouse effect is needed for life! If no GH effect, temp the earth would be -18 deg. C It is not only CO 2 which is responsible

32. CO2 concentration has changed over millennia & global temperature follows similar pattern Then if we look at some other evidence:

33. There are other natural causes of climate change Amount of energy coming from the sun Volcano's Ocean currents Meteor strikes (very rare!) Tectonic plate movement (very, very slow!)

34. Computer model evidence for climate change being human induced

36. Climate Change Definition Any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC) Change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural variability observed over comparable time periods (UNFCCC) A statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer) EARTHSCAN 2007

37. Source: IPCC-AR4

38. Global Warming Observed 11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) rank the 12 warmest years since 1850 0.74 0 C increase in the last century Higher the latitude and altitude, greater the warming Projection For next two decades, warming of 0.2 0 C per decade If conc. of GHG and aerosols kept constant at year 2000 levels, warming of 0.1 0 C per decade 21 st Century warming larger than 20 th century

39. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE BIODIVERSITY Extinction of some plant and animal species Loss of habitat Disruption of aquatic life AGRICULTURE Shift in food growing areas Changes in crop yields High irrigation demand Increased pest, crop diseases & weeds in warm areas WATER RESOURCES Change in water supply Decreases water quality Increased drought Increased flooding FORESTS Changes in forest composition and locations Disappearance of some forests Increased fires from drying Loss of wildlife habitat and species SEA LEVEL Rising sea levels Flooding of low lying islands and coastal cities WEATHER EXTREMES Prolonged heat waves and drought Increased flooding More intense hurricanes, typhoons, tornadoes & violent storms HUMAN POPULATION Increased deaths More environmental refugees Increased migration HUMAN HEALTH Increased death from heat and diseases Disruption of food & water supplies Spread of tropical disease to temperate areas Increased respiratory diseases Increased water pollution from coastal flooding

40. Some projected impacts IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rock avalanches from destabilized slopes, and to affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. Freshwater availability in central, south, east and southeast Asia is projected to decrease due to climate change

41. Some projected impacts IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Crop yield could decrease up to 30% in central and south Asia by the mid-21 st century However, yield could increase in colder environments Insect outbreaks could increase

42. Some projected impacts IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhea disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise Increased risk of heat-related mortality Reduced human mortality from decreased cold exposure

43. Examples of Ecological Consequences Higher winter temperatures and drought lead to pest outbreaks and forest die-off in western N. America In summer 2002, pinyon ( Pinus edulis ) began dying en masse from drought stress and an associated bark beetle outbreak ( Jemez Mts. near Los Alamos) (2004) Source: USGS

44. Climate Change Scenario: Nepal Observed and Projected Climate - what we expect Weather - what we get

45. ????? Climate scenario & climate change scenario Observed & Projected climate change in Nepal GCM & RCM All Nepal & Local – Climate Change

46. Climate Scenario Plausible representations of the future that are consistent with assumptions about future emissions of GHG and with our understanding of the effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of these gases on global climate.

47. Climate Change Scenario difference between “ climate scenario” & “ present climate”

48. Major Weather Systems (Source: Baidya, DHM) Northern limit of the Tropics. Southern lap of the Himalayas Mountainous country Topographically complex Affected by monsoon In summer and western disturbances in winter Summer Monsoon Western disturbances 26º 22' N - 30º 27' N Lat. 80º 4'E - 88º 12'E Long. 0 200 400 100 Kilometers India China Iran Pakistan Myanmar Thailand Afghanistan Laos Nepal Cambodia Bangladesh Oman Bhutan Sri Lanka Turkmenistan Malaysia 0 130 260 65 Kilometers

49. Climate Change: Nepal Temperature Precipitation Himalayan Glaciers

50. Temperature

51. Annual Mean Temperature Trend 2 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Year Temperature (°C) All Nepal Temperature is increasing steadily. 1.7°C increase between 1975 and 2005 Temperature Trend (Baidya, DHM) y = 0.039x + 19.335 R = 0.5973

52. Precipitation

53. Increase in frequency of heavy rainfall events (> 100 mm/day) (Source: DHM) Number of days with rain >= 100 mm 1977 1992, 35 1987, 106 1998 1975 1982 y = 0.5997x + 61.417 R 2 = 0.0984 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Days

54. Glaciers

55. X010 Glacier retreating at the rate of 10 meter per year (Source: GEN/DHM)

56. Imja Glacier Lake (DHM)

57. Tsho Rolpa Glacier Lake

58. How Fast They Are Shrinking? Faster than the other glaciers Faster than the previous estimate Dyurgerov [2002]; Fujita et al. [1997, JG; 1998; BGR; 2001, BGR]

59. Observed Climate Change Impact Cryosphore studies in Nepal Glaciers of Nepal Himalayas are retreating Glacier lakes are forming and expanding Higher chances of GLOF There are changes in monsoon and winter climate under global warming. Hydro-climate process of high Himalayas are largely different from those of lowland.

60. Climate Change and Himalayas Vulnerable Himalayan Glaciers Rapid Shrinkage & high climatic sensitivity of Himalayan Glaciers Himalayan Glaciers Not enough data, not integrated A Blank Spot in IPCC AR4 (2007) 3 billion people are associated shrinking more rapidly than elsewhere Need to reduce scientific uncertainty Most of the glaciers are retreating!

61. Observed Climate Change Rainfall Total rainfall and heavy rainfall events are increasing Maximum 24 hour rainfall is also increasing Temperature Days and nights are both becoming warmer. Warm spell duration (long hot days) is increasing Cool nights and cool days are becoming less frequent Most glaciers are retreating at faster rate Extreme hydro-climatic events are increasing

62. PROJECTIONS

64. Warmer Future Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India Temperature Change Projection For Late 21 st Century Climate Change Projection Late 21 st Century (Karmacharya, DHM)

65. PRECIS projection of mean temperature change over Nepal by the end of 21st century

66. Wetter Future Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India Change in Annual Rainfall Up to 30% increase Climate Change Projection- Late 21 st Century (Karmacharya, DHM)

67. PRECIS projection of rainfall change over Nepal by the end of 21st century

68. Wetter Summer Drier Winter Change in Seasonal Rainfall Climate Change Projection- Late 21 st Century (Karmacharya, DHM) Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India

69. (Source: Sharma, DHM)

70. WATER RESOURCES (Source: Sharma, DHM)

71. Khumbu, Rasuwa and Jumla LOCAL Observations from

72. Annual rainfall trend- Chaurikharka (WWF/SEN, 2008) Trend: 30 mm/ decade Annual rainfall trend Large (+ve) in Terai Small (+ve or –ve) in high altitude Chaurikharka

73. Extreme rainfall trend Large (+ve) in Terai Small (+ve or –ve) in high altitude 1 day extreme rainfall - Chaurikharka 5 day extreme rainfall - Chaurikharka Trend in extreme rainfall Vs Altitude (WWF/SEN, 2008)

74. Khumbu Area Warm days and nights are increasing Cool days and nights are decreasing (WWF/SEN, 2008) Khumbu Area Station name Elev (m) JIRI 2003 OKHALDHUNGA 1720 PHATEPUR 100

75. Study area (WWF/SEN, 2008) Area Rainfall Change Projection (%) All Nepal Average 15.5 At Study Grid 10.4 Average over 9 grid with study site at center 10.7

76. (WWF/SEN, 2008) Area Temp. Change Projection (C) All Nepal Average 4.2 At Study Grid 4.7 Average over 9 grid with study site at center 4.2 Study area

77. Temperature extremes are shifting to warmer regime (Practical Action/SEN, 2009) Summer days (25) trend at Jumla Warm nights' trend at Jumla

78. Significant decreasing trend in annual total rainfall (Practical Action/SEN, 2009) Trend of total rainfall on wet days at Jumla Trend of annual count of days when rainfall > 10 mm at Jumla

79. Increased risk of flash flood and drought in different seasons Consecutive dry day trend at Rasuwa Consecutive wet day trend at Rasuwa

80. Changing Climate in Jumla Annual rainfall is in decline Temperature extremes are shifting to warmer regime Likely to cause significant decrease in water availability, specially decrease in snowfall amount in winter This will seriously deplete the moister available for the winter crop. Thus, rapidly altering (warming) climatic condition might have negative impact on productivity of local crop varieties and might also damage habitat of important medicinal plants. The combined effect of increased temperature and decrease snowfall will also reduce the snow mass available for melting in dry period (pre-monsoon) when snowmelt is the major component of river flow and thus affect the livelihood condition on downstreams as well. (Practical Action/SEN, 2009)

81. Rasuwa (Jibjibe at border of Bhorle and Dhaibung, between two big landslides) Impact severity in ranking: Landslide, Hail storm and lighting, Drought, Flood, Snowfall Heavy rain during short period - increased Village is at very high risk due to landslides; transportation got hit most significantly; local labor got impacted due to the road destruction but getting more jobs as no transportation. Due to risk of landslide, all the settlement was in situation of replacement. Temperature increase significantly since 6-7 years; Mango is seen (growing well) and other plants from low land is now growing here, and is considered positive impact of climate change. Less snowfall and decreased water resource.

82. Bridges in Dipalgaun, Jumla

83. Houses in Jumla

84. Road Leads Landslide: Gabion Walls

85. Cropping Pattern Choice of Crops

86. SALT (Slopping Agriculture Land Technology)

87. Alternative Energy

88. Education and Poverty Alleviation Loan and Insurance

89. Quality Data

91. Table 1: Hazard types and adaptation matrix Mitigation and Adaptation S Settlements Hazards Hard Measure Soft Measure Remarks 1 Ghat Landslide Rock Fall Flood and GLOF 4 houses close to steep cliffs should be relocated (50 m away from the cliff) Forestation in the landslide area Bio-engineering/check dam, gabion wall and retaining wall construction Awareness Health Posts Regular Monitoring EWS Old bridge (Between New & old settlements) is at high risk 5 houses in high risk Solid waste at landslide area 2 Chhuthawa Flood/GLOF River training; Check dam construction Dykes construction Flood preparedness program EWS 3 Chhermadin Flood/GLOF Debris flow All houses should be relocated People to be convinced about the potential hazards and new safer area is to be provided for their resettlement 4 Phakding Debris flow GLOF/Flood Rock Fall Landslide Rock fall prone house and GLOF prone houses should be relocated Construction of High dykes(strengthen the existing small check dams) Awareness EWS Health Posts One house under the threat of rock fall More than 50% houses in High risk 5 Gumela Flood/GLOF Check dams and Gabion walls 6 Sano Gumela Landslide Bioengineering Forestation on excavation area Awareness 7 Thulo Gumela Comparatively safer area 8 Toktok Debris flow from Ghatte Khola Check dam/gabion wall Bridge should be lifted higher Power plant should be protected by high dams along the stream bank Awareness Old bridge and 70 KW Hydropower are at high risk 9 Benker Flood/GLOF Rock fall Landslide Bank erosion Plantation; Construction of fences to prevent rock fall; High walls at river bank Awareness Economic diversity /Earning diversity EWS 10 Chhumawa GLOF EWS Few houses are under the GLOF risk 11 Chhuserma Landslide Gabion walls, Forestation, Stop over grazing Awareness 12 Manjo Bank erosion from Manjo Khola Raise the height of bridge at Manjo Khola, Check dam at Manjo Khola Gabion wall along the bank of Manjo Khola Awareness

92. Adaptation in Nepal? Weather and Climate Services Advancement of meteorological studies and development Continuous advancement of operational forecasting and seasonal prediction including severe weather warning But , end users not aware. Need to build their capacity to USE Impact is more due to the people ’ s ignorance. Need to be aware The outputs of research/conferences on Climate change assessment, impact and adaptation need to be understood by people. They need to be educated about it and prepared for future adaptation actions

93. What Should be Done? the best strategy to cope with the adverse impacts - and opportunities - of CC tomorrow is to help developing countries adapt to climate variability today it is necessary to involve the community in the process there is a need of greater integration between approaches to CC adaptation and sustainable development Therefore , CC adaptation needs collaboration and participation efforts from local to national and international level Similarly , the threats and challenges of climate variability and change need to be embedded into community development planning and community based capacity building programs.

94. Our Respond? International Action: UNFCC and Kyoto Carbon trading: CDM, Footprint tax Local Commitment (USA, EU, East Asia, India, Bhutan, Australia) highest is north America Sustainable economic growth: Renewable energy; Adapting to change Personal Commitment and public action

95. The Triad Model of Social Change Motivate Capacity Opportunity

96. Discussion!!! The Small Earth Nepal 626 Bhakti Thapa Sadak Naya Baneshwor Tel: +977-1-4782738 Email: [email_address] URL: http://www.smallearth.org.np

97. Climate Change Impact in Nepal Message take HOME developing countries are, in particular, disproportionately vulnerable to climate change most affected by climate variability and extreme events are the poor and vulnerable estimated impact of weather-related disasters in developing countries 20-30 times larger than in industrialized countries (Jovel, 1989) Climate change will most likely exacerbate these problems (McCarthy, 2001)

98. “ I am no longer skeptical …climate change is the major challenge facing the world” Sir David Attenborough “ Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism” Sir David King The Atlas of Climate Change Mapping the world’s greatest challenge