This document discusses trends affecting global food security and proposes an agenda to achieve sustainable food security. It notes that population growth, high food prices, land and water constraints, and climate change are putting stress on global food systems. It gives special attention to Africa, where hunger is increasing and agricultural investment is needed. The proposed agenda includes improving smallholder productivity, linking smallholders to markets, keeping trade open, promoting safety nets, integrating climate change adaptation, and reforming global food governance. Actions must be prioritized and country-led to be effective.

1. Achieving Sustainable Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda Shenggen FanDirector General International Food Policy Research Institute Multistakeholder Dialogue on Implementing Sustainable Development New York, February 1, 2010

2. Key messages Global food security is under stress Africa needs special attention Agenda for achieving sustainable food security

3. Food security under stress Population growth and demographic changes High and volatile prices Land and water constraints Climate change etc. Food security stress Agenda Africa

4. Hunger increased in the last decade Number of undernourished (1969-71 to 2009) Source: FAO 2009.

6. Prevalence of underweight in children

7. Under-five mortality rateSource: von Grebmer et al. 2009.

8. Rapidly growing population and demographic change World population reaches 9 bil. by 2050 All growth to come from urban areas Most growth to come from developing countries Rising working age population in Africa Source: FAO 2009. Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food

9. Land constraints are high Land degradation, 1981-2003 Source: Bai et al. 2007 (LADA, FAO/ISRIC).

10. Water stress is also high Severe water stress will affect about half of the world's population by 2030 (OECD 2008) Source: IWMI 2004.

11. NCAR A2a Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009. Climate change will put additional pressure on food production systems Climate change impact on production: Rainfed maize, 2050 Global production = -16%

12. Trade policies affecting food prices Food security now more dependent on non-food policies e.g. trade, energy, finance Source: Headey, Malaiyandi, and Fan 2009.

13. Africa needs special attention Poverty prevalence ca. 2005 ($1.25/day) 2009 Global Hunger Index Source: Stan Wood et al. 2009. Pixel size: 25km2 Source: von Grebmer et al. 2009. Food security stress Agenda Africa

14. Progress towards 10% budget allocation of the Maputo Declaration in Africa Source: ReSAKSS 2009.

15. Agricultural growth rates required to achieve MDG1 Source: Fan et al. 2009.

16. Annual agriculture financing gaps to meet the poverty MDG – African countries Source: Johnson 2009.

17. Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) Africa-wide network Supports implementation of CAADP and other regional initiatives by: promoting evidence-based decision-making improving awareness of the role of agriculture for development filling knowledge gaps promoting dialogue facilitating CAADP benchmarking and review processes http://www.resakss.org

18. 1. Improve smallholder productivity Improve access to inputs (e.g. seeds, fertilizer) Improve access to services (e.g. extension) Increase investment in rural infrastructure (e.g. rural feeder roads, water, irrigation) Promote agricultural research and innovation Food security stress Agenda Africa

20. Support beneficial institutional arrangements e.g.

21. Producer marketing cooperatives

22. Contract farming schemes

23. Warehouse receipts

24. Scale up pro-poor ICTs e.g.

25. Agricultural market information

27. 4. Promote productive safety nets Goals: Secure and smooth food consumption Enable saving and investment Build and diversify assets Types of interventions e.g.: Conditional cash/food transfers Maternal and child health/nutrition programs Public works Insurance for the poor Programs depend on needs, capacities, and resources Source: Adato and Hoddinott 2008.

29. Cropping and grazing pattern

30. Irrigation/watering technology

31. Water allocation policy

32. Infrastructure investment

33. Land use change

34. Agriculture and water price policies

35. Investment, subsidy, tax policies

36. Trade policies

37. Regional trade policies

38. Global climate policies

39. Global trading patternsClimate change Farm level Extreme weather events Basin level National level Demographic change Regional level Conflict and crises Global level GLOBAL CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES SPACIAL SCALES Source: IFPRI, Ringler 2007.

40. 6. Reform global food governance system Reform options: Maintain current institutions: Make marginal improvements Form innovative government networks: Strengthen government-to-government systems for decision making Expand current system: Explicitly engage the new players in the global food system—the private sector and civil society Source: von Braun and Islam 2009.

41. In sum Improve smallholder productivity Link smallholders to markets Keep trade open Promote productive safety nets Integrate climate change into strategies at all levels Reform global food governance system

42. Further prioritization of actions needed Source: Fan, Mogues, and Benin 2009.

43. The most effective and sustainable actions must be country-led and country-owned