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Transport for Sustainable Cities




   Emmerson Richardson, Sinclair Knight Merz
        Peter Newman, Curtin University
                                               1
A Definition of Sustainable Transport

> A sustainable transport system:
  o   Allows the basic access needs of individuals and societies to
      be met safely in a manner consistent with human ecosystem
      health, and within and between generations
  o   Is affordable, operates efficiently, offers choice of transport
      mode, and supports a vibrant economy
  o   Limits emissions and waste within the planet’s ability to absorb
      them, minimises consumption of non-renewable resources,
      limits consumption of renewable resources to the sustainable
      yield level, reuses and recycles its components, and minimises
      the use of land and the production of noise




                                                                     2
Liveable/ Sustainable Cities
>   Great places for social, cultural
    and business exchange
>   Great public places – to walk
    around or stay a while
>   Diverse mixed uses – leisure,
    education, retail, employment and
    a mix of housing types
>   Preserve heritage and create new
    urban art
>   A human scale of urban design –
    active interesting streets
>   Easy to access and move around




                                        3
Transport for Sustainable Cities

> Complement and fit the urban
  form
> High capacity access without
  high numbers of cars
> A walkable city – safe, secure,
  comfortable and convenient
> A transit city – more than a city
  with transit




                                      4
What are the Drivers for Change?

> Climate change
> Road congestion
> Health and fitness
> Affordable living
> Road safety
> Peak oil



   Less dependence on and use of cars




                                        5
Transport and Climate Change

> Currently 14% of emissions for
  transport
> High growth in transport
  emissions in Australia:
   o 28.4% growth (1990 – 2004)
   o 60.5% estimated growth (1990-
     2020) under BAU

> UK + 26.4% (1990 – 2002)
> USA + 27.6% (1990 – 2004)




                                     6
Transport and Climate Change – International
               Comparisons


                                                                AUSTRALIA              UK            USA

                Population                                        20.1 million     60.3 million   296.4 million
                Total greenhouse gas
                                                                       565 mt/yr    656 mt/yr      7147 mt/yr
                emissions
                Total greenhouse gas                                   28.1 t/yr    10.9 t/yr       24.1 t/yr
                emissions per person                                    100%         39%             86%
                Greenhouse gas from                                    2.07 t/yr    1.04 t/yr       3.95 t/yr
                cars per person                                         100%          50%            191%



Analysis of data supplied under UN Framework on Climate Change, 2004




                                                                                                                7
Melbourne/ London Comparison




Source: Bus Association Victoria Transport Emissions Report



                                                              8
Impact of Road Building on Delay – America’s
   20 Biggest Cities




Source: Urban Transport Monitor (1999)


                                                  9
Impact of Public Transport on Travel
  Demand – America’s 50 Biggest Cities

                               Increase/Decrease Compared to Bus Only System Cities
                              Large Rail System    Small Rail System    Bus Only System
          Indicator
                                  ( 7 cities )       ( 16 cities )        ( 27 cities )
 Public Transport Ridership
                                  + 500%                + 50%                  0%
 (kms per person)
 Car Driver Travel
                                   - 20%                 - 10%                 0%
 (kms per person)
 Traffic Safety
 (Deaths per 100,000               - 35%                 - 15%                 0%
 persons)


Source: Rail Transit in America – A Comprehensive Evaluation of Benefits; Litman, T (2004)




                                                                                             10
Road Safety

> Worldwide, over one million people die each year from road
  crashes and many millions more are injured
> More Australian lives lost in road crashes than the more
  than 100,000 Australians killed in wars




                                                             11
Peak Oil
> Driving up prices and impacting on affordability
> Impact on house prices and the economy
> Could result in real shortages – rationing
        Australia Petroleum Trade Deficit (12 month running totals), June 2002 to March 2008




        Source: A Road Map for Alternative Fuels in Australia: Ending our Dependence on Oil.
        Report of Jamieson Group to NRMA Motoring Services, July 2008

                                                                                               12
Implementing a Sustainable Transport Plan

> High Capacity/ High Frequency Public Transport
> Mixed Use/ High Density Around Transit Nodes (TODs)
> Sustainable Mobility Management of Road Traffic
> Changing Vehicles and Fuels
> Radical Restructure of the Transport Budget




                                                        13
Public transport




                   14
A Paradigm Shift for Public Transport –
A Transit City Approach

> High speed rail on major corridors
> Light rail in inner areas and day activity corridors
> Deliver capacity to move 4 times passengers by 2030
> High frequency (less than 10 minutes) all day
> Integrated bus/ rail systems
> More people in walking distance of major routes
> Major investment required




                                                         15
Potential Travel Scenario – Perth


                          Year 2008      Year 2030      Change in
                                                        Trips/ Day
Population                   1.5M           2.2M
Total Trips/ Day            5.25M           7.7M        2,450,000
Car Driver Trips          3.05M (58%)   2.80M (36.4%)    (250,000)
Car Passenger Trips       1.05M (20%)   1.16M (15%)      110,000
Public Transport Trips    0.32M (6%)    1.28M (16.6%)    960,000
Walking & Cycling Trips   0.84M (16%)   2.47M (32%)     1,630,000




                                                                     16
PUBLIC TRANSPORT PASSENGER
                        KILOMETRES PER CAPITA VERSUS
                        CAR PASSENGER KILOMETRES PER
                                   CAPITA
                                                                                    Lifestyles and
                        30,000
                                                                                         city form
                                                                                      change with
Annual car passenger
kilometres per capita




                        25,000                      y = -4576Ln(x) + 40753
                        20,000
                                                              2
                                                          R = 0.4973                            it...
                        15,000

                        10,000

                         5,000

                           -
                                 0.0      2000.0     4000.0       6000.0   8000.0
                                 Annual per capita public transport passenger
                                             kilometres per capita
 People  living in TODs have 50% less
  car use and save 20% of their
  household income due to one less car.
 Value retained in down times and good
  in up times.
Annual Vehicle Km per Household, 2004
    Outer
  suburbs
 residents,
particularly
those away
  from rail
lines, drive
much more
 than inner
  suburbs                                         2.3 – 7.6
                                                  7.6 – 10.1
 residents.                                       10.1 – 12.6
                                                  12.6 – 15.0
                                                  15.0 – 18.4
                                                  18.4 – 24.5
                                                  24.5 – 39.0

                                                                20
27
28
TRAVEL SMART
           - Creating a more resilient
           transport culture....

• Developed from German Werner
Brog, applied first in Perth, then UK
now US.....
• Individualised marketing based on
direct intervention with
householders receiving educational
materials on alternatives to the car.
• Bikers and bus drivers become
eco-coaches...
35
Biofuels for
farmers....
Eg from OIL
MALLEE
Carbon
Accredited
Good for remote freight
       and ecotourism
 Only
     option for heavy vehicles; CNG
 buses have shown how to do it. Australian
 technology used to convert Mumbai and Chenai buses.
 Australia has 77% of its population on
  natural gas distribution system.
 Can convert biomass to natural gas.
 Leads into Hydrogen economy.
45
 4,400 tonnes ghg
 $86 million infrastructure
 savings($86,000 per block)
 $250 million in annualised transport
 savings over 50 years.
 Health savings...

                                         47
50

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Transport for Sustainable Cities by Emmerson Richardson and Peter Newman

  • 1. Transport for Sustainable Cities Emmerson Richardson, Sinclair Knight Merz Peter Newman, Curtin University 1
  • 2. A Definition of Sustainable Transport > A sustainable transport system: o Allows the basic access needs of individuals and societies to be met safely in a manner consistent with human ecosystem health, and within and between generations o Is affordable, operates efficiently, offers choice of transport mode, and supports a vibrant economy o Limits emissions and waste within the planet’s ability to absorb them, minimises consumption of non-renewable resources, limits consumption of renewable resources to the sustainable yield level, reuses and recycles its components, and minimises the use of land and the production of noise 2
  • 3. Liveable/ Sustainable Cities > Great places for social, cultural and business exchange > Great public places – to walk around or stay a while > Diverse mixed uses – leisure, education, retail, employment and a mix of housing types > Preserve heritage and create new urban art > A human scale of urban design – active interesting streets > Easy to access and move around 3
  • 4. Transport for Sustainable Cities > Complement and fit the urban form > High capacity access without high numbers of cars > A walkable city – safe, secure, comfortable and convenient > A transit city – more than a city with transit 4
  • 5. What are the Drivers for Change? > Climate change > Road congestion > Health and fitness > Affordable living > Road safety > Peak oil Less dependence on and use of cars 5
  • 6. Transport and Climate Change > Currently 14% of emissions for transport > High growth in transport emissions in Australia: o 28.4% growth (1990 – 2004) o 60.5% estimated growth (1990- 2020) under BAU > UK + 26.4% (1990 – 2002) > USA + 27.6% (1990 – 2004) 6
  • 7. Transport and Climate Change – International Comparisons AUSTRALIA UK USA Population 20.1 million 60.3 million 296.4 million Total greenhouse gas 565 mt/yr 656 mt/yr 7147 mt/yr emissions Total greenhouse gas 28.1 t/yr 10.9 t/yr 24.1 t/yr emissions per person 100% 39% 86% Greenhouse gas from 2.07 t/yr 1.04 t/yr 3.95 t/yr cars per person 100% 50% 191% Analysis of data supplied under UN Framework on Climate Change, 2004 7
  • 8. Melbourne/ London Comparison Source: Bus Association Victoria Transport Emissions Report 8
  • 9. Impact of Road Building on Delay – America’s 20 Biggest Cities Source: Urban Transport Monitor (1999) 9
  • 10. Impact of Public Transport on Travel Demand – America’s 50 Biggest Cities Increase/Decrease Compared to Bus Only System Cities Large Rail System Small Rail System Bus Only System Indicator ( 7 cities ) ( 16 cities ) ( 27 cities ) Public Transport Ridership + 500% + 50% 0% (kms per person) Car Driver Travel - 20% - 10% 0% (kms per person) Traffic Safety (Deaths per 100,000 - 35% - 15% 0% persons) Source: Rail Transit in America – A Comprehensive Evaluation of Benefits; Litman, T (2004) 10
  • 11. Road Safety > Worldwide, over one million people die each year from road crashes and many millions more are injured > More Australian lives lost in road crashes than the more than 100,000 Australians killed in wars 11
  • 12. Peak Oil > Driving up prices and impacting on affordability > Impact on house prices and the economy > Could result in real shortages – rationing Australia Petroleum Trade Deficit (12 month running totals), June 2002 to March 2008 Source: A Road Map for Alternative Fuels in Australia: Ending our Dependence on Oil. Report of Jamieson Group to NRMA Motoring Services, July 2008 12
  • 13. Implementing a Sustainable Transport Plan > High Capacity/ High Frequency Public Transport > Mixed Use/ High Density Around Transit Nodes (TODs) > Sustainable Mobility Management of Road Traffic > Changing Vehicles and Fuels > Radical Restructure of the Transport Budget 13
  • 15. A Paradigm Shift for Public Transport – A Transit City Approach > High speed rail on major corridors > Light rail in inner areas and day activity corridors > Deliver capacity to move 4 times passengers by 2030 > High frequency (less than 10 minutes) all day > Integrated bus/ rail systems > More people in walking distance of major routes > Major investment required 15
  • 16. Potential Travel Scenario – Perth Year 2008 Year 2030 Change in Trips/ Day Population 1.5M 2.2M Total Trips/ Day 5.25M 7.7M 2,450,000 Car Driver Trips 3.05M (58%) 2.80M (36.4%) (250,000) Car Passenger Trips 1.05M (20%) 1.16M (15%) 110,000 Public Transport Trips 0.32M (6%) 1.28M (16.6%) 960,000 Walking & Cycling Trips 0.84M (16%) 2.47M (32%) 1,630,000 16
  • 17. PUBLIC TRANSPORT PASSENGER KILOMETRES PER CAPITA VERSUS CAR PASSENGER KILOMETRES PER CAPITA Lifestyles and 30,000 city form change with Annual car passenger kilometres per capita 25,000 y = -4576Ln(x) + 40753 20,000 2 R = 0.4973 it... 15,000 10,000 5,000 - 0.0 2000.0 4000.0 6000.0 8000.0 Annual per capita public transport passenger kilometres per capita
  • 18.
  • 19.  People living in TODs have 50% less car use and save 20% of their household income due to one less car.  Value retained in down times and good in up times.
  • 20. Annual Vehicle Km per Household, 2004 Outer suburbs residents, particularly those away from rail lines, drive much more than inner suburbs 2.3 – 7.6 7.6 – 10.1 residents. 10.1 – 12.6 12.6 – 15.0 15.0 – 18.4 18.4 – 24.5 24.5 – 39.0 20
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  • 34. TRAVEL SMART - Creating a more resilient transport culture.... • Developed from German Werner Brog, applied first in Perth, then UK now US..... • Individualised marketing based on direct intervention with householders receiving educational materials on alternatives to the car. • Bikers and bus drivers become eco-coaches...
  • 35. 35
  • 36.
  • 37.
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  • 39. Biofuels for farmers.... Eg from OIL MALLEE Carbon Accredited
  • 40. Good for remote freight and ecotourism
  • 41.  Only option for heavy vehicles; CNG buses have shown how to do it. Australian technology used to convert Mumbai and Chenai buses.  Australia has 77% of its population on natural gas distribution system.  Can convert biomass to natural gas.  Leads into Hydrogen economy.
  • 42.
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  • 47.  4,400 tonnes ghg  $86 million infrastructure savings($86,000 per block)  $250 million in annualised transport savings over 50 years.  Health savings... 47
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