1.
1
1
ANI DASGUPTA, GLOBAL DIRECTOR, WRI ROSS CENTER FOR SUSTAINABLE CITIES, WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE (WRI)
ENABLING SUSTAINABLE URBAN GROWTH
Deutsche Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) – German Development Institute – February 11, 2015
Implementing Effective, Efficient, Equitable Urban Solutions

2.
CITIES ARE THE FUTURE OF THE PLANET
Sources: (1) Population curves: LSE Cities and Oxford Economics based on United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, 2007 Revision and Oxford
Economics City 750 database. See Floater, G., Rode, P., Robert, A., Kennedy, C., Hoornweg, D., Slavcheva, R. and Godfrey, N., 2014 (forthcoming). Cities
and the New Climate Economy: the transformative role of global urban growth. New Climate Economy contributing paper. LSE Cities, London School of
Economics and Political Science.. (2) GDP split estimate from Grubler et al 2007 cited in GEA 2012.
Billion People
0
2
4
6
8
10
20502040203020202010200019901980197019601950
Global
population
urban
population
Rural
population
70%
50%
30%
54%
today
70%
in 2050
80%
of global GDP
In cities today
global urban population

3.
URBANIZATION IS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Sources: Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Population Division of the United Nations; Angus Maddison via
Timetrics; Global Insight; Census reports of England and Wales; Honda in Steckel & Floud,1997; Bairoch, 1975
1 Definition of urbanization varies by country; pre-1950 figures for the United Kingdom are estimated.
2 Historical per capita GDP series expressed in 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars, which reflect purchasing power parity.

4.
WHAT’S DIFFERENT NOW? UNPRECEDENTED SCALE
Source: World Urbanization Prospects report, United Nations Economics and Social Affairs, U.N.
Annex. Table 1.
• Next 25 years: more urbanization than all of History
• Adding 2.5 billion people to cities by 2050
– A 63.3% increase
– 1.3 million each week, for the next 35 years
• And our current urbanization modes are unsustainable

5.
5
5
Image: 2 gos/Flickr

6.
AN UNSUSTAINABLE URBANIZATION PATH
Source: Land use and emissions, UN-HABITAT. Infrastructure needs, Resilient Cities.
Air pollution and traffic fatalities, WHO. India investment: McKinsey Global Institute.
70%
of the CO2 emissions come
from cities already
75%
of the 2050
infrastructure has
yet to be built
Climate
Public
Finances
Quality of Life
Traffic fatalities
expected to
DOUBLE from
1.2M to 2.4M
by 2030
For example India needs to
invest $1.2 trillion over the next
20 years, almost 8 times
today’s level
8%
of GDP lost in
congestion in Rio
and São Paulo

7.
AND TODAY’S CHOICES ARE LOCKING US IN
• Choices about long-lived capital investments have long-lasting
implications for carbon emissions
• Serious lock in effects of land use, urban form and urban services
infrastructure
Source: World Bank
Short-Term Capital Stock
Long-Term Capital Stock
Infrastructure
Land Use and Urban Form
10-15 years
15-40 years
30-75+ years
100+
years

8.
THIS IS A YEAR OF GREAT GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES
• Mayors are taking action:
– Compact of Mayors launch
– Networks of cities
• Towards United Nations Sustainable
Development Goals with Cities goal
• Solutions are at a tipping point
Image: Charlie Ma/Flickr

9.
EMERGING CONSENSUS
“ Countries at all levels
of income can achieve
economic growth
while combating
climate change”
http://newclimateeconomy.net

10.
EMERGING CONSENSUS ECONOMY + ENVIRONMENT
RESOURCE
EFFICIENCY
INNOVATION
INFRASTRUCTURE
INVESTMENT
ENERGY
LAND
USE
CITIES
WIDER
ECONOMY
• Smarter transport systems, smarter utilities, smart grids
CONNECTED infrastructure
• Managed expansion, mixed-use urban form, good quality urban design
COMPACT urban growth
• Integrated land use and transport authorities, integrated planning, PPPs
COORDINATED governance

11.
Atlanta’s built-up area Barcelona’s built-up area
Population: 2.5 million
Urban area: 4,280 km2
Transport carbon emissions: 7.5
tonnes CO2 per person (public+
private transport)
Population: 2.8 million
Urban area: 162 km2
Transport carbon emissions: 0.7
tonnes CO2 per person (public+
private transport)
ATLANTA BARCELONA
DIFFERENT MODELS, VERY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES

12.
Source: The New Climate Economy, 2014
DECOUPLING GDP <> EMISSIONS

13.
Source: Axel Baeumler, Sustainable Low-Carbon City Development in China, The World Bank. June
2012.
DENSITY MATTERS TO BE LOW-CARBON
Cities density and emissions per capita
Shanghai

14.
Photo: Mexico City
SO, HOW DO WE GO FROM HERE…

15.
…TO THERE
Photo: Andreas/Flickr

16.
WRI ROSS CENTER FOR
SUSTAINABLE CITIES
200 staff
in 9 offices in 6 countries
55 Cities
of active engagement
36
major outcomes

17.
WRI ROSS CENTER FOR
SUSTAINABLE CITIES
• Supporting partners to create local
solutions by adapting, learning, course
correcting
• Using evidence and measurement to shift
policy
• Through systematic learning, building
consensus to shift local, national policies,
and the global agenda

18.
Deep local collaboration

19.
Image: Flickr/RodrigoSolon
MEXICO CITY, YEAR 2002
• One of the most polluted cities in the world
• Economic weight 40% of national GDP
• 22M daily trips
• Transport = 18% of emissions
• 4,000 deaths per year due to pollution

20.
VISION
• Air pollution reduction
• Congestion reduction
Photo; World Resources Institute/EMBARQ
Using a Bus Rapid Transit
system in Mexico City to
- respond to the city’s high
level of transport demand
- in a coordinated and
comprehensive way

21.
IMPACT, 2002-2014
Source: World Resources Institute
• 5
lines
opera,ng,
6th
under
construc,on;
7th
planned
• ~1
million
passengers
per
day
• 40%
,me
saved
• 20
%
reduc,on
in
traffic
crashes

22.
HOW DID WE GET THERE?
Photos by EMBARQ Mexico
Before After
• Created a local Center for Sustainable Transport, and signed an MoU with Mexico
City government, partnerships with local NGOs
• Creation of a multi-sector team of consultants, partners to address emerging issues in
real-time
• Long presence in the city, collaboration across agencies and sectors
• Convincing city officials, in coordination with Ministry of Environment
• Convincing concessionaries that BRT will be a high capacity financially viable solution
• Led the creation of Metrobús to plan, program, manage, and regulate the public
transport system

23.
BEYOND BUS RAPID TRANSIT
• Halo Effect: BRT implemented in Puebla, Chihuahua,
Guadalajara, Leon, following a national program, PROTRAM
• Shifting beyond the impact of BRT to broader integration with
walking, biking, and other transport systems
Photo: World Resources Institute/EMBARQ

24.
Using evidence to shift
paradigms

25.
THE HUMAN COST OF TRAFFIC CRASHES
1.2M
annual traffic
fatalities per year

26.
CONVENTIONAL APPROACHES
Stricter law enforcement
Helmets
Seatbelts
Less drinking
Better driver training

27.
CITIES KEY TO REDUCING TRAFFIC FATALITIES
Source: World Health Organization Global Status Report on Road Safety (pedestrians);
World Bank and World Resources Institute (WRI) estimates (urban areas)
50%of traffic deaths are
pedestrians
and vulnerable users,
including the poor
40-50%of fatal crashes happen
in urban areas

28.
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT CAN SAVE LIVES
Source: EMBARQ, World Resources Institute (WRI)
Same city, same road
Guadalajara, Mexico
2 general traffic lanes 1 BRT lane
3,194 people / hour 5,000 people / hour
726 crashes per year 6 crashes per year
+

29.
HOW WE SEE IT: URBAN DESIGN AND
INFRASTRUCTURE CAN SAVE LIVES
Source: World Resources Institute, Traffic Safety on Bus Priority Systems

30.
IMPACT
By design
• Poor design: 3% increase in
severe crashes for every 10
meters between signalized
intersections
With Sustainable Transport:
• BRTs can reduce number of
fatalities in urban areas by
50%
• 9,704 total lives saved by WRI
from current projects from
2010 to 2019
• 1.6 billion kilometers of
vehicle-journeys avoided every
year

31.
SCALE UP
• World Health Organization Global
Status Report on Road Safety
recognizes sustainable transport
assuring safer journeys
• National Policies
– Mexico City Mobility Law, pyramid
prioritizing pedestrians, cyclists…
– India National Road Safety Law under
consideration
– Turkey National Transportation Strategy
2023

32.
Wide-scale adoption of tools
to shift behaviors

33.
MEASUREMENT KEY TO REDUCE EMISSIONS
Source: World Energy Outlook
WITHOUT GPC
WITH GPC
Different types of
measurements
Account for only
a portion of
emissions
Unclear
if climate
targets will
be met
Incomplete data
limits investment
Unable to relate
to national climate
action
One
measurement
Consistently
account for all
emissions
Emissions
trajectory well
understood
Good data drives
investment
Can measure city’s
contribution to national
climate efforts
?
?
⅔
⅞
Φ
Σx
y
1
6
Missing some
emissions
Cannot set
targets
Less access to
finance
Doesn’t add up to
National plans
WITHOUT GPC
WITH GPC
Different types of
measurements
Account for only
a portion of
emissions
Unclear
if climate
targets will
be met
Incomplete data
limits investment
Unable to relate
to national climate
action
One
measurement
Consistently
account for all
emissions
Emissions
trajectory well
understood
Good data drives
investment
Can measure city’s
contribution to national
climate efforts
?
?
⅔
⅞
Φ
Σx
y
1
6
WITHOUT GPC
WITH GPC
Different types of
measurements
Account for only
a portion of
emissions
Unclear
if climate
targets will
be met
Incomplete data
limits investment
Unable to relate
to national climate
action
One
measurement
Consistently
account for all
emissions
Emissions
trajectory well
understood
Good data drives
investment
Can measure city’s
contribution to national
climate efforts
?
?
⅔
⅞
Φ
Σx
y
6
WITHOUT GPC
WITH GPC
Different types of
measurements
Account for only
a portion of
emissions
Unclear
if climate
targets will
be met
Incomplete data
limits investment
Unable to relate
to national climate
action
One
measurement
Consistently
account for all
emissions
Emissions
trajectory well
understood
Good data drives
investment
Can measure city’s
contribution to national
climate efforts
?
?
⅔
⅞
Φ
Σx
y
1
6
Without measure

34.
VISION
• The GPC offers the
first, global standard
to consistently
measure city-level
emissions.
• Built with strong
governance –
geography diversity,
multiple engaged
actors: Advisory Panel

35.
PILOT TESTED IN 35 CITIES
Tokyo
Kyoto
Iskandar Malaysia
Nonthaburi
Melbourne
Moreland
Adelaide
eThekwini
(Durban)
Kampala
Stockholm
Cornwall
London
Lahti
Wicklow
Morbach
Seraing
Saskatoon
Los Altos Hills
Belo Horizonte
Goiania
Rio de Janeiro
Northamptonshire
Arendal
Hennepin
GeorgetownLagos
Kaohsiung
La Paz
Buenos Aires
Mexico City
Palmerston
North
Phitsanulok
Lima
Wellington
Doha
Note:
City
of
Morbach,
Germany
pilot-­‐tested

36.
GLOBAL DEPLOYMENT
Global Launch
June 2012
Draft Version 1.0 for
Pilot Test
Jun 2011
C40-ICLEI MOU
Mar 2012
Draft Version 0.9 for
Public Comment
May-Dec 2013
Pilot Test by 35 cities
July 2014
Draft Version 2.0 for
Public Comment
Dec 2014

37.
IMPACT
• Endorsed by the
Compact of Mayors
• Rio used GPC to
establish 2005 base
year emissions and
track 2013 progress

38.
Comprehensive solutions
now, to prevent lock-in effect
in Bangalore

39.
BANGALORE, INDIA
Photo: World Resources Institute / EMBARQ
• Population doubled in 20 years,
from 5M to 10M
• Over 50% of households own a
motor vehicle (mostly 2-
wheelers), and its fast growing
• Auto-centric construction
approach and behaviors destroying
connectivity/accessibility

40.
TOWARDS A CONNECTED BANGALORE
Photo: Benoit Colin / World Resources Institute (WRI)
Bangalore Intra-city grid (BIG) bus network
• Rationalizing bus routes – cutting # in half & improving access
• Reduced travel time by 56%
• With the same size of bus fleet, increased efficiency for the
bus agency
215,000 people
experience better daily public transport

41.
TOWARDS A COORDINATED BANGALORE
Source: World Resources Institute (WRI)
0 1
0
3
0
60
m
Better metro accessibility
- Surveyed commuter and
resident travel pattern &
station areas
- Improved access,
safety, and guided
built form

42.
TOWARDS A COORDINATED BANGALORE
Source: World Resources Institute (WRI)
Scaled-up
metro station designs
- 1 initial design
- Scaling-up to 13
stations

43.
TOWARDS A COORDINATED BANGALORE
Source: World Resources Institute (WRI)
Over 1,500 gated
communities + 500
more being built
Lack of planning
oversight for fast
growing auto-
centric communities
10x higher
modal share for
cars than rest of
Bangalore

44.
TOWARDS A COMPACT BANGALORE
Source: Source: World Resources Institute (WRI) with Global Protocol for Community-Scale
Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories (GPC(
16% less emissions
with public transport VS. automobility scenario

45.
Lessons learned

46.
LESSONS LEARNED
• Deep engagement essential = learning +
tweaking + action + communications
• Perseverance, through change
management
• Involves institutional complexity
(political economy)…
• …and an existing set of challenging
conditions (incumbents, …)

47.
BUT CURRENT TRENDS ARE UNSUSTAINABLE
Source: NOAA
• Carbon budget running out: only 3 decades left
• Deaths and injuries from traffic crashes
predicted to double by 2030, from 1.2M to 2.4M
• Urban land area expected to triple (2000-2030)
• Water security under threat
• 2.5bn lack basic sanitation
• 780M lack safe drinking water

48.
NEED TO SCALE-UP IMPLEMENTATION OF
SOLUTIONS AT A FASTER PACE
There is a knowledge gap
• Addressing institutional complexity in different
contexts (e.g. India ≠ China)
• Urgent need for city performance metrics to improve
service delivery, governance, and build resilience
• Need for economic evidence in a diversity of
contexts
• Enhancing links between economics, job creation
and sustainable practices through new evidence
• Developing integrated and coordinated
approaches across transport, land, energy, other
urban sectors

49.
WORLD RESOURCES REPORT KEY QUESTION
How can we help city leaders deliver
thriving economies,
thriving citizens and a
thriving environment?

50.
WORLD RESOURCES REPORT AS A PLATFORM
• Engage target decision-makers, particularly those from
developing countries,
– as collaborators,
– co-authors, and
– Messengers
• Establish a knowledge sharing platform and become an
agenda setting resource for policy makers, funders
• Influence
– Global Agenda on cities
– Sustainable Development Goals process through metrics
– HABITAT-III

51.
WORLD RESOURCES REPORT
• Present a range of solutions to “bend the curve”
and manage urban challenges
– Case studies highlighting successes and failures
• Investigate underexplored solutions of the
“how” to achieve 3 objectives together
– Addressing city leaders concerns
– Addressing resource and environmental challenges
– Improve quality of life for people
• Highlight regional differences through deep
analysis in a few cities

52.
WORLD RESOURCES REPORT
• Recognizing that every city is different, customized
solutions are needed
• Two crucial ways to reverse current trends
ADAPT
SOLUTIONS
TO LOCAL CONTEXT &
NEEDS
SCALE
SOLUTIONS
FOR IMPACT

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Ani Dasgupta
Global Director, WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities
World Resources Institute (WRI)
adasgupta@wri.org
WRI.org/cities
TheCityFix.com
Learn more at
WRI.org/cities