This document summarizes a study reviewing flood frequency analysis for the Pilbara region of Western Australia. It outlines the study area, which includes 60 stream gauging stations across 10 river basins. The methodology involves dividing the stations into 3 regions based on catchment area, then further dividing each region into statistically homogeneous sub-regions containing around 20 stations or less. Frequency analysis will then be performed on each sub-region to develop design flood equations for estimating peak discharges.
ICLR Friday Forum: Modelling of Future Flood Risk Across Canada (May 31, 2019)glennmcgillivray
On May 31, 2019, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar lead by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic of Western University titled 'Modelling of Future Flood Risk Across Canada Under Climate Change.'
Climate change has induced changes in key climate variables and the hydrological cycle across Canada. With continuous emission of greenhouse gases, this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century and beyond. In this study, a macro-scaled hydrodynamic model is used to simulate 25 km resolution daily streamflow across Canada for historical (1961-2005) and future (2061-2100) timelines.
Future projections from 21 GCMs following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used for the analysis. Changes in the frequency and magnitude of historical 100-year and 250-year return period flood events and month of occurrence of peak flow are analyzed. Results obtained from uncertainty analysis for both return period flood events found that flood frequency will increase in most of the northern Canada, southern Ontario, southern British Columbia, northern Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. However, northern British Columbia, northern Ontario, Manitoba and northeastern Quebec will be facing decrease in flood frequency. Results indicate that 40%-60% of Canada’s 100 most populated cities including many prominent cities such as Toronto and Montreal are high at risk of increased riverine flooding under climate change.
Slobodan P. Simonovic is Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Western Ontario and Director of Engineering Studies at ICLR. Prof. Simonovic is globally recognized for his unique interdisciplinary research in Systems Analysis and has over 500 professional publications and three major textbooks. Prof. Simonovic was inducted to the Canadian Academy of Engineering in June of 2013.
ICLR Friday Forum: Modelling of Future Flood Risk Across Canada (May 31, 2019)glennmcgillivray
On May 31, 2019, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar lead by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic of Western University titled 'Modelling of Future Flood Risk Across Canada Under Climate Change.'
Climate change has induced changes in key climate variables and the hydrological cycle across Canada. With continuous emission of greenhouse gases, this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century and beyond. In this study, a macro-scaled hydrodynamic model is used to simulate 25 km resolution daily streamflow across Canada for historical (1961-2005) and future (2061-2100) timelines.
Future projections from 21 GCMs following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used for the analysis. Changes in the frequency and magnitude of historical 100-year and 250-year return period flood events and month of occurrence of peak flow are analyzed. Results obtained from uncertainty analysis for both return period flood events found that flood frequency will increase in most of the northern Canada, southern Ontario, southern British Columbia, northern Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. However, northern British Columbia, northern Ontario, Manitoba and northeastern Quebec will be facing decrease in flood frequency. Results indicate that 40%-60% of Canada’s 100 most populated cities including many prominent cities such as Toronto and Montreal are high at risk of increased riverine flooding under climate change.
Slobodan P. Simonovic is Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Western Ontario and Director of Engineering Studies at ICLR. Prof. Simonovic is globally recognized for his unique interdisciplinary research in Systems Analysis and has over 500 professional publications and three major textbooks. Prof. Simonovic was inducted to the Canadian Academy of Engineering in June of 2013.
DSD-INT 2020 Real Time Hydrologic, Hydraulic and Water Quality Forecasting in...Deltares
Presentation by Tony McAlister, WaterTech, at the Delft3D User Days - Australian Time zone: Inland to Estuary, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2020. Tuesday, 10 November 2020.
This presentation was given as part of the EPA-funded Catchment Science and Management Course focusing on Integrated Catchment Management, held in June 2015. This course was delivered by RPS Consultants. If you have any queries or comments, or wish to use the material in this presentation, please contact catchments@epa.ie
It is increasingly being recognised internationally that integrated catchment management (ICM) is a useful organising framework for tackling the ongoing challenge of balancing sustainable use and development of our natural resource, against achieving environmental goals. The basic principles of ICM (Williams, 2012) are to:
• Take a holistic and integrated approach to the management of land, biodiversity, water and community resources at the water catchment scale;
• Involve communities in planning and managing their landscapes; and
• Find a balance between resource use and resource conservation
ICM is now well established in Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. In Europe the ICM approach has been proposed as being required to achieve effective water and catchment management, and is the approach being promoted by DEFRA for the UK, where it is called the “Catchment Based Approach” (CaBA). The principles and methodologies behind ICM sit well within the context of the Water Framework Directive with its aims and objectives for good water quality, sustainable development and public participation in water resource management. In Ireland it is proposed that the ICM approach will underlie the work and philosophy in developing and implementing future River Basin Management Plans.
On March 11, 2016, ICLR held a Friday Forum workshop entitled 'Mapping extreme rainfall statistics for Canada', led by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic of Western University.
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, affecting rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve information used in the design, maintenance and operation of water infrastructure in Canada. Presented in this lecture are analyses of precipitation data from 567 Environment Canada hydro-meteorological stations using the IDF_CC tool. Results for the year 2100 based on Canadian climate model and an ensemble of 22 GCMs have been generated. A spatial interpolation method was used to produce Canadian precipitation maps for events of various return periods. Results based on the Canadian climate model indicate a reduction in extreme precipitation in central regions of Canada and increases in other regions. Relative to the ensemble approach, the Canadian climate model results (a) suggest more spatial variability in change of IDFs, and (b) the ensemble approach generated generally lower values than the Canadian climate model.
Dr. Simonovic has extensive research, teaching and consulting experience in water resources systems engineering. He teaches courses in water resources and civil engineering systems. He actively works for national and international professional organizations. Dr. Simonovic’s primary research interest focuses on the application of systems approach to management of complex water and environmental systems. Most of his work is related to the integration of risk, reliability, and uncertainty in hydrology and water resources management. He has received a number of awards for excellence in teaching, research and outreach. He has published over 450 professional publications and three major textbooks. He was inducted to the Canadian Academy of Engineering in June of 2013.
Landfill Compliance Monitoring: Achieving Long Term EfficiencyHydroTerra Pty Ltd
Richard Campbell presentation from the 2017 Institute of Public Works Engineering Australasia (IPWEA) leadership workshop. Richard covers the changing face of landfill environmental compliance reporitng through automated monitoring technology.
Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves and RegionalisationAM Publications
Storm sewers make up a large percentage of drainage system in an urban setup. The design of these
components are based on rainfall intensities of a specific design period for that location. These can be derived from
intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationship. These IDF relationships are derived from historical rainfall, using
an extreme value distribution for maximum rainfall intensity. In the present study the IDF curves and parameter
regionalisation were studied for various kinds of basins. These equation parameters can be then used to understand
the spatial variation of rainfall intensity in the study area. The parameter contour maps subsequently generated using
various interpolation method are then used for plotting IDF curves for any ungauged station in the basin.
DSD-INT 2019 Lake Kivu - 3D hydrodynamic modelling of a deep and strongly str...Deltares
Presentation by Wouter Kranenburg, Deltares, at the Delft3D - User Days (Day 2: Hydrodynamics), during Delft Software Days - Edition 2019. Tuesday, 12 November 2019, Delft.
Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis By L-Moments Approach For Madina Region,...IJERDJOURNAL
ABSTRACT:- In arid regions, extreme rainfall event frequency predictions are still a challenging problem, because of the rain gauge stations scarcity and the record length limitation, which are usually short to insure reliable quantile estimates. Regional frequency analysis is one of the popular approaches used to compensate the data limitation. In this paper, regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfall is investigated for Madinah province in the Western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The observed maximum daily rainfall records of 20 rainfall stations are selected from 1968 to 2015. The rainfall data is evaluated using four tests, namely, Discordance test (Di), Homogeneity test (H), Goodness of fit test (Zdist) and L-moment ratios diagram (LMRD). The Di of L-moments shows that all the sites belong to one group (Di <3.0).><1). Finally, the Zdist is used to evaluate five probability distribution functions (PDFs) including generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), generalized Pareto (GPA), and Pearson Type III (PE3). Zdist and LMRD both showed that PE3 distribution is the best among the other PDFs. The regional parameters of the candidate PDF are computed using L-moments approach and accordingly the regional dimensionless growth curve is developed. The results enhance the accuracy of extreme rainfall prediction at-sites and also they can be used for ungauged catchment in the region.
Revision of the Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for the City of ...theijes
This work involves the revision of the Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Curves for the city of Kumasi. Annual Maximum Rainfall depths of various durations over twenty-two years were obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Services. The data set was then subjected to frequency analysis to determine the distribution of which best characterize the data set. The annual maximum series were found to be drawn from the Gumbel distribution whose parameters were computed by fitting the statistics to the data. The Chi-square test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test prove the appropriateness of the fitting. Since the data available was only 22 years, IDF values for return periods higher than 22 years were obtained using frequency factors. The IDF estimates resulting from this work have been compared with the existing IDF curves prepared by J.B Danquah. The results show that for shorter durations (12 min and 24 min), the new IDF Curves give higher intensities for the same return period; the percentage increase ranges between 2% and 25%, whiles for longer durations (42min, 1 hr, 2hr, 3hr, 6hr, 12hr and 24 hr), the new IDF Curves give lower intensities for the same return period with the percentage decrease ranging between 3% and 49% when compared with the existing J.B Danquah IDF Curves. This might be as a result of low precipitation trends for shorter durations and high precipitation trends for longer durations in 1970s and before. These therefore call for the revision and updating of the existing IDF Curves for all the major cities and towns in Ghana to take into account the effect of climate change
DSD-INT 2020 Real Time Hydrologic, Hydraulic and Water Quality Forecasting in...Deltares
Presentation by Tony McAlister, WaterTech, at the Delft3D User Days - Australian Time zone: Inland to Estuary, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2020. Tuesday, 10 November 2020.
This presentation was given as part of the EPA-funded Catchment Science and Management Course focusing on Integrated Catchment Management, held in June 2015. This course was delivered by RPS Consultants. If you have any queries or comments, or wish to use the material in this presentation, please contact catchments@epa.ie
It is increasingly being recognised internationally that integrated catchment management (ICM) is a useful organising framework for tackling the ongoing challenge of balancing sustainable use and development of our natural resource, against achieving environmental goals. The basic principles of ICM (Williams, 2012) are to:
• Take a holistic and integrated approach to the management of land, biodiversity, water and community resources at the water catchment scale;
• Involve communities in planning and managing their landscapes; and
• Find a balance between resource use and resource conservation
ICM is now well established in Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. In Europe the ICM approach has been proposed as being required to achieve effective water and catchment management, and is the approach being promoted by DEFRA for the UK, where it is called the “Catchment Based Approach” (CaBA). The principles and methodologies behind ICM sit well within the context of the Water Framework Directive with its aims and objectives for good water quality, sustainable development and public participation in water resource management. In Ireland it is proposed that the ICM approach will underlie the work and philosophy in developing and implementing future River Basin Management Plans.
On March 11, 2016, ICLR held a Friday Forum workshop entitled 'Mapping extreme rainfall statistics for Canada', led by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic of Western University.
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, affecting rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve information used in the design, maintenance and operation of water infrastructure in Canada. Presented in this lecture are analyses of precipitation data from 567 Environment Canada hydro-meteorological stations using the IDF_CC tool. Results for the year 2100 based on Canadian climate model and an ensemble of 22 GCMs have been generated. A spatial interpolation method was used to produce Canadian precipitation maps for events of various return periods. Results based on the Canadian climate model indicate a reduction in extreme precipitation in central regions of Canada and increases in other regions. Relative to the ensemble approach, the Canadian climate model results (a) suggest more spatial variability in change of IDFs, and (b) the ensemble approach generated generally lower values than the Canadian climate model.
Dr. Simonovic has extensive research, teaching and consulting experience in water resources systems engineering. He teaches courses in water resources and civil engineering systems. He actively works for national and international professional organizations. Dr. Simonovic’s primary research interest focuses on the application of systems approach to management of complex water and environmental systems. Most of his work is related to the integration of risk, reliability, and uncertainty in hydrology and water resources management. He has received a number of awards for excellence in teaching, research and outreach. He has published over 450 professional publications and three major textbooks. He was inducted to the Canadian Academy of Engineering in June of 2013.
Landfill Compliance Monitoring: Achieving Long Term EfficiencyHydroTerra Pty Ltd
Richard Campbell presentation from the 2017 Institute of Public Works Engineering Australasia (IPWEA) leadership workshop. Richard covers the changing face of landfill environmental compliance reporitng through automated monitoring technology.
Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves and RegionalisationAM Publications
Storm sewers make up a large percentage of drainage system in an urban setup. The design of these
components are based on rainfall intensities of a specific design period for that location. These can be derived from
intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationship. These IDF relationships are derived from historical rainfall, using
an extreme value distribution for maximum rainfall intensity. In the present study the IDF curves and parameter
regionalisation were studied for various kinds of basins. These equation parameters can be then used to understand
the spatial variation of rainfall intensity in the study area. The parameter contour maps subsequently generated using
various interpolation method are then used for plotting IDF curves for any ungauged station in the basin.
DSD-INT 2019 Lake Kivu - 3D hydrodynamic modelling of a deep and strongly str...Deltares
Presentation by Wouter Kranenburg, Deltares, at the Delft3D - User Days (Day 2: Hydrodynamics), during Delft Software Days - Edition 2019. Tuesday, 12 November 2019, Delft.
Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis By L-Moments Approach For Madina Region,...IJERDJOURNAL
ABSTRACT:- In arid regions, extreme rainfall event frequency predictions are still a challenging problem, because of the rain gauge stations scarcity and the record length limitation, which are usually short to insure reliable quantile estimates. Regional frequency analysis is one of the popular approaches used to compensate the data limitation. In this paper, regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfall is investigated for Madinah province in the Western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The observed maximum daily rainfall records of 20 rainfall stations are selected from 1968 to 2015. The rainfall data is evaluated using four tests, namely, Discordance test (Di), Homogeneity test (H), Goodness of fit test (Zdist) and L-moment ratios diagram (LMRD). The Di of L-moments shows that all the sites belong to one group (Di <3.0).><1). Finally, the Zdist is used to evaluate five probability distribution functions (PDFs) including generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), generalized Pareto (GPA), and Pearson Type III (PE3). Zdist and LMRD both showed that PE3 distribution is the best among the other PDFs. The regional parameters of the candidate PDF are computed using L-moments approach and accordingly the regional dimensionless growth curve is developed. The results enhance the accuracy of extreme rainfall prediction at-sites and also they can be used for ungauged catchment in the region.
Revision of the Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for the City of ...theijes
This work involves the revision of the Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Curves for the city of Kumasi. Annual Maximum Rainfall depths of various durations over twenty-two years were obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Services. The data set was then subjected to frequency analysis to determine the distribution of which best characterize the data set. The annual maximum series were found to be drawn from the Gumbel distribution whose parameters were computed by fitting the statistics to the data. The Chi-square test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test prove the appropriateness of the fitting. Since the data available was only 22 years, IDF values for return periods higher than 22 years were obtained using frequency factors. The IDF estimates resulting from this work have been compared with the existing IDF curves prepared by J.B Danquah. The results show that for shorter durations (12 min and 24 min), the new IDF Curves give higher intensities for the same return period; the percentage increase ranges between 2% and 25%, whiles for longer durations (42min, 1 hr, 2hr, 3hr, 6hr, 12hr and 24 hr), the new IDF Curves give lower intensities for the same return period with the percentage decrease ranging between 3% and 49% when compared with the existing J.B Danquah IDF Curves. This might be as a result of low precipitation trends for shorter durations and high precipitation trends for longer durations in 1970s and before. These therefore call for the revision and updating of the existing IDF Curves for all the major cities and towns in Ghana to take into account the effect of climate change
Looking to the past to understand the future
To understand fully the future direction of the oil and gas sector here in WA, it is important to consider and recognise the recent history and current challenges being experienced. This history and current challenges formed the first section of the presentation highlighting the scale of expansion of the industry here over the past decade, where we have moved from around 20mtpa LNG to a anticipated output level of some 50mtpa in WA alone, which, when combined with the additional capacity being constructed in QLD and NT will make Australia the world’s largest exporter of LNG by the end of this decade.
Jennifer Lawrence - Practical Solutions for Urban Heat Island and Stormwater ...bio4climate
Jennifer Lawrence, Sustainability Planner for the City of Cambridge, speaks on the City’s ongoing Vulnerability Assessment on climate change, and some possible measures the City can take to improve its climate resilience.
Presented at the Urban and Suburban Carbon Farming to Reverse Global Warming conference at Harvard University on May 3, 2015, organized by Biodiversity for a Livable Climate.
www.bio4climate.org
Catchment Data & Evidence Forum 28/09/18 - Lightning TalksCaBASupport
The CaBA Catchment Data & Evidence Forum brought together around 60 data and evidence professionals from the CaBA community to share knowledge, identify opportunities and discuss future development of the data and evidence sharing landscape, in the light of the government's 25 year plan for the environment.
This slide pack contains all of the 5 minute 'lightning talks' given by attendees.
DSD-Kampala 2023 Analytic Tools for Cooperative Water Resources Assessments i...Deltares
Presentation by Dr Michael Kizza, Deputy Executive Director, Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), at the Symposium Models and decision-making in the wake of climate uncertainties, during the Deltares Software Days - Kampala 2023 (DSD-Kampala 2023). Wednesday, 4 October 2023, Kampala, Uganda.
This presentation was given as part of the EPA-funded Catchment Science and Management Course focusing on Integrated Catchment Management, held in June 2015. This course was delivered by RPS Consultants. If you have any queries or comments, or wish to use the material in this presentation, please contact catchments@epa.ie
It is increasingly being recognised internationally that integrated catchment management (ICM) is a useful organising framework for tackling the ongoing challenge of balancing sustainable use and development of our natural resource, against achieving environmental goals. The basic principles of ICM (Williams, 2012) are to:
• Take a holistic and integrated approach to the management of land, biodiversity, water and community resources at the water catchment scale;
• Involve communities in planning and managing their landscapes; and
• Find a balance between resource use and resource conservation
ICM is now well established in Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. In Europe the ICM approach has been proposed as being required to achieve effective water and catchment management, and is the approach being promoted by DEFRA for the UK, where it is called the “Catchment Based Approach” (CaBA). The principles and methodologies behind ICM sit well within the context of the Water Framework Directive with its aims and objectives for good water quality, sustainable development and public participation in water resource management. In Ireland it is proposed that the ICM approach will underlie the work and philosophy in developing and implementing future River Basin Management Plans.
DSD-INT 2016 Regional groundwater flow systems in the Kenya Rift Valley - Mur...Deltares
Presentation by Patrick Murunga Wakhungu (University of Twente) at the iMOD International User Day, during Delft Software Days 2016. Tuesday 1 November 2016, Delft.
2012 02 The State of the Severn Report Dr. Rhoda Ballinger, Cardiff UniversitySevernEstuary
The State of the Severn Report
Rhoda Ballinger has a degree in Geography, a Postgraduate Certificate in Education and a PhD from the University College of Wales, Aberystwyth. Over the last decade, particularly as a member of the Marine and Coastal Environment Research Group, she has engaged in a quest for model institutional and policy frameworks to deliver Integrated Coastal Management (ICM). Currently, her interest in non-statutory and participatory processes for ICM is reflected in her postgraduate students' research topics. Keen to develop more than an academic perspective on coastal management, Rhoda has been heavily and actively involved in the development and day-to-day running of a number of international, national and local coastal and estuary management projects, including the Severn Estuary Partnership.
This presentation will build on the launch of the State of the Severn Estuary Report at last year’s Forum event. The presentation will highlight the current development of indicator sets and specific report cards detailing the ‘State of the Severn in specific themed areas. The presentation will focus mainly on the approach taken and the initial findings.
Objectives:
Develop a replicable integrated model (methodology) for evaluating the extent and development potential of renewable (non-renewable) groundwater resources in arid lands, with the Eastern Desert of Egypt as a pilot site.
The model will be replicable for similar arid areas; North of Sudan, Tibesty, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia.
Building national capacities.
This presentation was given on 26.11.15 at the Catchment Management Network Meeting in Tullamore.
The day included presentations on the approach to characterisation for the 2nd Cycle of the Water Framework Directive and how this would involve both the EPA and Local Authorities, along with other public bodies.
A key focus was the new Local Authority Water and Communities Office and its role in the 2nd cycle.
Presentations on integrating planning and the WFD, the UK 'Love Your River Telford' project and 'The Living Loobagh' from Limerick were also included.
Pydro & HydrOffice: Open Tools for Ocean MappersGiuseppe Masetti
Workshop given by Damian Manda (NOAA Office of Coast Survey) and Giuseppe Masetti (UNH Center for Coastal and Ocean Mapping/NOAA-UNH Joint Hydrographic Center) on March 18, 2019 at the US Hydro Conference in Biloxi, MS, USA.
Standards-based workflows for flood analysis with authoritative and non-autho...Julian Rosser
Standards-based workflows for flood analysis with authoritative and non-authoritative data. 96th OGC Technical Committee meeting.
Open Geospatial Consortium Technical Committee flooding workflow. September 2015
Decreasing groundwater quality at Cisadane riverbanks: Groundwater-surface wa...Dasapta Erwin Irawan
The decreasing of groundwater quality has been the major issue in Tangerang area. One of the key process is the interaction between groundwater and Cisadane river water, which flows over volcanic deposits of Bojongmanik Fm, Genteng Fm, Tuf Banten, and Alluvial Fan. The objective of this study is to unravel such interactions based on the potentiometric mapping in the riverbank. We observed 60 stop sites along the riverbank for groundwater and river water level observations, and chemical measurements: TDS, EC, temp, pH, TSS, Fe2+, Cu+, COD, BOD, and E. coli. Three river water gauge were also analyzed to see the fluctuations.
Three hydrodynamic models are found based on unconfined groundwater flow analysis: 1) Effluent model at Segment I (Kranggan-Batuceper) with δh/δl of 0.2- 0.25; 2) Perched model at Segment II (Batuceper-Kalibaru) with δh/δl of 0.2-0.25; 3) Influent model at Segment III (Kalibaru-Tanjungburung) with δh/δl of 0.15- 0.20.
Water quality parameters of TSS, Fe2+, Cu+, COD, BOD, and E. coli, show higher values towards downstream. Most of the values are also higher than permitted limit. High TSS values of 73.38 mg/l probably comes from sand mining activities at Kranggan area in addition to natural erosion. Average Fe2+ of 0.61 mg/l and Cu+ of 0.13 mg/l probably originates partially from small electroplating industries at Kranggan. Average BOD of 8.42 mg/l, COD of 25.75 mg/l, and E. coli of 6275/100 ml come from domestic activities along river banks.
Pollution pattern which is higher towards downstream needs special awareness. Small industries must be introduced to cheap waste reduction method, while sand mines must have settlement ponds. Organic pollution due to domestic actions, requires sociological approaches. Aside to that, aeration process, ultra filtration, and reverse osmosis can be applied to reduce organic content, although most of them are still expensive.
Speaker: Dr Jinzhu Xia, Head Consultant, Marine, Granherne, Australia
Date: Tuesday, 6 March 2012
Hosted by: WA Oil & Gas Facilities Group a co-venture between Engineers Australia and the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
The EPCM of writing tenders: How engineers can successfully build compelling ...Engineers Australia
Date: Tuesday, 7 February 2012
Presenters: David Lunn BEng, MBA and Nigel Dennis BEng, MBA, GAICD Joint owners and directors of Bid Write Pty Ltd
Hosted by: WA Oil & Gas Facilities Group a co-venture between Engineers Australia and the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
ICWES15 - Engineering Career for Women: An Examination of Orissan Women's Les...
Pilbara rfa ea presentation v3.2 1
1. Pilbara Region Flood Frequency
Free Powerpoint Templates
Analysis Review
By Jim Davies and Edwin Yip
JDA
Date:
Free Powerpoint Templates 12 November 2012
Page 1
2. Outline of the Presentation
Free Powerpoint Templates
• Introduction
• Study Area and Flow Data
• Methodology and Results
• Conclusions
Page 2
3. Outline of the Presentation
Free Powerpoint Templates
• Introduction
• Study Area and Flow Data
• Methodology and Results
• Conclusions
Page 3
4. Outline of the Presentation
Free Powerpoint Templates
• Introduction
– Background
– Previous Studies
– Scope of this Study
– Source of Information
Page 4
5. Introduction
Free Powerpoint Templates
Background
•Regional method is for ungauged catchment flood
estimation
•Frequency analysis is estimation of how often a
specified event will occur
•Extreme environmental event such as floods, have
severe consequences for society
Page 5
6. Introduction
Free Powerpoint Templates
Background (Cont.)
•Couple of advance statistical techniques were
developed since the last two decades after the
publication of ARR1987,
–L-moments were introduced in 1990’s.
•The aim of this study is to review the ARR1987
Index-flood Method of Pilbara utilizing:-
–advance statistical techniques, and
–flow measurement records up to 2012
Page 6
7. Introduction
Free Powerpoint Templates
Previous Studies
Estimation of design peak discharge for ungauged catchments:
• 1972 US Bulletin 17 – LPIII
• 1975 UK Flood Studies Report – GEV
• 1987 Australia AR&R – LPIII
• 1997 “Regional Frequency Analysis” – Complete Procedure
by Hosking & Wallis - L moments
- Screening of Data
- Regions
- Choice of Distribution
- Estimation of Frequency
Page 7
8. Introduction
Free Powerpoint Templates
Regions defined in ARR1987
25 years out of date now
Pilbara Region
Gascoyne Region
(firm recommendations
of design discharges
were not made in
ARR1987)
Pilbara Region + Gascoyne Region
= Drainage Division 7
Page 8
9. Introduction
Free Powerpoint Templates
Pilbara Index-flood Method (ARR1987)
•was developed utilizing 13 stream gauging
stations in Pilbara Region
•Methodology
– Annual Exceedance Series
– Log-Normal distribution (assumed the
generalised skew coefficient was zero)
– Method of Product-Moments
– All 13 catchments to form one Pilbara region
Page 9
11. Introduction
Free Powerpoint Templates
Pilbara Index-flood Method (ARR1987)
(Cont.)
•Index-flood:
– Design Discharge of 5-year ARI [m3/s]
Q5 = 6.73 x 10-4 A0.72 P1.51
•Parameters in Design Discharge Equation:
– Catchment factor: Catchment Area (A) [km2]
– Climatic factor: Average Annual Rainfall Depth
over the Catchment Area (P) [mm]
Page 11
12. Introduction
Free Powerpoint Templates
L-Moments (Hosking & Wallis, 1997)
• Sample moment statistics especially skewness
and Kurtosis not reliable (biased) as algebraically
bounded.
• “L-moments” are linear combinations of order
statistics – less subject to bias.
Page 12
13. Introduction
Free Powerpoint Templates
Software
•R-Project
–with L-moments Packages “lmom” and “lmomRFA”
•The R-Project and L-moment Packages are freely
available
–Website: http://www.r-project.org/
•J. R. M. Hosking is the developer and maintainer of
the L-moment Packages
Page 13
14. Introduction
Free Powerpoint Templates
EA AR&R Revision Projects: Project 5
“Regional Flood Methods”
Stage 2 Report
PS/S2/015
June 2012
By University Of Western Sydney
To test generic techniques for all Australia
(WA Contributors: JR, NC, LP, MP, JG)
Page 14
15. Introduction
Free Powerpoint Templates
Project 5 Stage 2 Report June 2012,
General:
• RFFA methods preferred to PRM
• QRT and PRT perform similarly
• PRT preferred due to smoothness
• ROI outperforms fixed regions
• RFFA requires only area and design rainfall intensity data
(easy and simple)
• Arid and semi-arid regions have insufficient data for RFFA;
recommends simplified RFFA (4 regions)
• Trends will be analyzed in Stage III (expected to be
adjustment of ARI’s
Page 15
16. Introduction
Free Powerpoint Templates
Project 5 Stage 2 Report June 2012
Western Australia Specific
–146 catchments (gauging stations)
•Kimberley: 14 stations
•Pilbara: 12 stations
•South West: 120 stations
–Area Range 0.1 to 7,405 km2
Page 16
17. Introduction
Free Powerpoint Templates
Project 5 Stage 2 Report June 2012
• Pilbara Region 0.1 to 1,000 km2
• Fixed region (all 12 stations)
• QRT Q2, Q5, Q10, Q20, Q50, Q100
– Function of Catchment Area and Rainfall Intensity
• PRT M, S, G
– Function of Catchment Area, Rainfall Intensity, forest
area, and stream density
Page 17
18. Introduction
Free Powerpoint Templates
Project 5 Stage 2 Report June 2012
Flow records from 12 gauging
stations in Drainage Division 7
were selected and analyzed in
“ARR Revision Projects -
Project 5 Regional Flood
Methods Stage II”
Source: Rahman, A., Haddad, K., Zaman, M., Ishak, E., Kuczera, G. and Weinmann, P. E. (2012).
Regional flood methods for Australia, ARR Revision Project 5 Stage 2 Report, Engineers Australia,
Report No. P5/S2/015 Page 18
19. Introduction
Free Powerpoint Templates
Scope of this Study
•To develop design equations for Index-flood (Q5)
to estimate design peak discharges for ungauged
catchments
–utilizing the updated stream flow measurement records
•To review the frequency factors of ARR1987 Index-
flood method to Pilbara
–utilizing the updated stream flow measurement records
–utilizing advance statistical techniques
Page 19
20. Introduction
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Scope of this Study (Cont.)
•To compare the design discharges between this
study and other studies
–ARR1987
–“Design Flood Estimation in Western Australia” by David
Flavell (2012) (Flavell 2012)
–“ARR Revision Projects - Project 5 Regional Flood Methods
Stage II” by Ataur Rahman and others (2012) (ARR P5 S2)
Page 20
21. Introduction
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Source of Information
•Department of Water
– Daily maximum flow measurement records
– Location of stream gauging stations
•Bureau of Meteorology
– Average Annual Rainfall Depth
•ARR1987
– Design Rainfall Intensity
Page 21
22. Outline of the Presentation
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• Introduction
• Study Area and Flow Data
• Methodology and Results
• Conclusions
Page 22
23. Study Area and Flow Data
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Page 23
24. Study Area and Flow Data
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Study Area
•Whole Drainage Division 7 (i.e. Division of Indian
Ocean) including 10 River Basins as listed follow:-
– Greenough River (701),
– Murchison River (702),
– Wooramel River (703) ,
– Gascoyne River (704),
– Lyndon-Minilya Rivers (705),
– Ashburton River (706),
– Onslow Coast (707),
– Fortescue River (708),
– Port Hedland Coast (709), and
– De Grey River (710)
Page 24
25. Study Area and Flow Data
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709 - Port Hedland Coast
707 - Onslow Coast
710 - De Grey River
705 - Lyndon-Minilya
Rivers
708 - Fortescue River
706 - Ashburton River
704 - Gascoyne River
703 - Wooramel River
702 - Murchison River
- Selected Stations (60)
701 - Greenough River
Page 25
26. Study Area and Flow Data
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World Maximum Flood
Maximum Floods in Pilbara Region
Yule River (1975)
Ashburton River
(1997)
Sherlock River (1971)
Fortescue River (2004)
Nullagine River (2002)
Robe River (2009)
Sherlock River (1984) Portland River (1984)
Source: Flavell, D. 2012, “Design flood estimation in Western Australia”, Australian Journal of
Water Resources, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 1-20, http://dx.doi.org/10.7158/W11-865.2012.16.1 .
Page 26
27. Study Area and Flow Data
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Catchment Gauging
Rank River
Area (km2) Station No.
1 (largest) 86,777 Murchison River 702001
2 74,432 Gascoyne River 704139
3 71,387 Ashburton River 706003
4 71,212 Gascoyne River 704193
5 69,278 Gascoyne River 704194
6 50,007 De Grey River 710003
7 43,098 Ashburton River 706209
8 34,775 Gascoyne River 704195
9 29,752 Fortescue River 708006
10 19,613 Lyons River 704196
Page 27
28. Study Area and Flow Data
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Catchment Gauging
Rank River
Area (km2) Station No.
51 198 Sthn Fortescue River 708004
52 174 Robe River 707001
53 128 Tanberry Creek 709006
54 78 Sherlock River 709009
55 77 Five Mile Creek 710002
56 50 Harding River 709002
57 49 Harding River 709007
58 41 Kanjenjie Creek Trib. 708009
59 34 Buller River 701006
Nokanena Brook
60 (smallest) 0.13 701601
Catch
Page 28
29. Study Area and Flow Data
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Design Rainfall Intensity 35
from ARR1987 [mm/hr]
(1hour duration, 2-years ARI)
30
27.5
25
22.5
20 18 16
20
Page 29
30. Study Area and Flow Data
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DoW Hydrographic Work – Rating Curve
•“Water Depth” vs “Flow Discharge” derivation
using discharge measurement and HEC-RAS
modelling
•See paper in AHA Conference 2010 Perth by:-
–Michael Harris and Leith Bowyer
–Ross Doherty
Page 30
31. Study Area and Flow Data
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Ashburton River
Page 31
32. Study Area and Flow Data
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Ashburton River
Page 32
33. Study Area and Flow Data
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Maitland River
Page 33
34. Study Area and Flow Data
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Maitland River
Page 34
35. Outline of the Presentation
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• Introduction
• Study Area and Flow Data
• Methodology and Results
• Conclusions
Page 35
36. Methodology and Results
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Methodology - For Extreme Discharges
1)Extract the AM series of stations in study area from flow
measurement data of DoW
– The quality of the measurement records were reviewed, poor
quality records were discarded
– The data in AM series was reviewed to ensure no two sequent
data is due to same storm event
– Only the stations with AM series containing at least 10 years of
data are selected in this study
(60 out of 90 stream gauging stations were selected in this
study)
Page 36
37. Methodology and Results
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Methodology - For Extreme Discharges (Cont.)
2)Divided 3 hydrological regions according to
catchment areas, the 3 regions are (after Hosking and Wallis
(1997)):-
–Small Area Region (19 gauging stations) – “S”:
• catchment area ≤ 1,000 km2
–Medium Area Region (25 gauging stations) – “M”:
• 1,000 km2 < catchment area ≤ 10,000 km2
–Large Area Region (16 gauging stations) – “L”:
• catchment area > 10,000 km2
Page 37
38. Methodology and Results
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Hosking and Wallis (1997), page 180
“Nonetheless, we emphatically reject the possibility of
performing regional frequency analysis with the entire
set of sites being treated as a single region. The main
reason is that the theory and practice of hydrology
imply that the frequency distribution is likely to depend
on the drainage area of the basin. Regional frequency
analysis should therefore be applied only to regions
whose basins cover a fairly small range of drainage
area.”
Page 38
39. Methodology and Results
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Hosking and Wallis (1997), page 180
“A further point is that in regional frequency analysis
there is little to be gained by using regions containing
more than about 20 sites. A reasonable starting point
for regional frequency analysis would therefore be a
subdivision of the set of sites, according to their
drainage areas, into groups of not much more than 20.”
Page 39
40. Methodology and Results
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Methodology - For Extreme Discharges (Cont.)
3)Sub-divide regions “S”, “M”, and “L” according to their statistical
homogeneity,
– Gauging stations with H-statistic < 2.0 were considered that they
could belong to same sub-region
– The number of stations in each sub-regions should not be much
more than 20
– discordance test based on L-moment ratios was performed to
ensure no existence of discordancy dataset in sub-regions
(sub-regions S1 to S3; M1 to M3; L1 to L3; were formed)
Page 40
41. Methodology and Results
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Methodology - For Extreme Discharges (Cont.)
4)Best-fitted frequency distribution for each sub-regions
– The best-fitted frequency distribution was considered to be the
one with the smallest absolute value of Z-statistic
– Candidate frequency distributions are:-
• Generalized Logistic,
• Generalized Extreme Value,
• Generalized Normal,
• Pearson Type III, and
• Generalized Pareto
Page 41
42. Methodology and Results
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Best-fitted
Selected
Sub-Region H-Statistic Distribution
Gauging
Name (< 2.0) (Z-Statistic)
Stations
(close to 0)
706207*, 709002,
709006, 709007, Pearson Type III
S-1 1.326
709009, 709010, (0.108)
710004
701003, 701004, Generalized
S-2 701005, 701006, 1.733 Logistic
701601, 704002
(-0.350)
704001, 704003, Generalized
S-3 704004, 707001, 1.682 Pareto
708009, 708227
(1.384)
* see later plot
Page 42
44. Methodology and Results
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Best-fitted
Selected
Sub-Region H-Statistic Distribution
Gauging
Name (< 2.0) (Z-Statistic)
Stations
(close to 0)
701002, 701011,
Pearson Type III
L-1 701012, 702001, 0.548
703002 (0.024)
704139, 704193, Generalized
704195, 704196,
L-2 706003, 706209, 0.855 Pareto
710003 (-0.260)
708002, 708003, Pearson Type III
L-3 708015, 708223 1.195
(0.998)
Page 44
45. Methodology and Results
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Methodology - For Extreme Discharges (Cont.)
5)Estimate parameters of each selected
station for their best-fitted frequency
distribution
6)Estimate the extreme discharges (QY, Y =
2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, 100-year ARI) of every
stations in each sub-regions
Page 45
47. Methodology and Results
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Methodology - For Frequency Factors
7)Define the peak discharge in 5-year ARI (i.e. Q5)
as the “index-flood”, in regions “S”, “M”, and “L”
8)Make the peak discharges dimensionless by
dividing them by Q5, (i.e. QY / Q5)
9)Calculate different Frequency Factors for different
ARIs in each region,
– “Frequency Factor” is the mean of [QY / Q5] over all
stations and in regions S, M, and L
Page 47
48. Methodology and Results
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Medium Area Region
Small Area Region
Large Area Region
Page 48
49. Methodology and Results
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Methodology - For Design Discharge Equation (Q5)
10)Catchment factors and climate factors for each
selected station:-
–Catchment Area (A) [km2]
–Average Annual Rainfall Depth (P) over the catchment
area between year 1946 to year 2005 [mm/year]
–Design Rainfall Intensity (IDuration, ARI) over catchment
area [mm/hr] of ARI 2- and 50-year (1hr, 12hrs, 72hrs)
Page 49
50. Methodology and Results
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Methodology - For Design Discharge Equation (Q5)
(Cont.)
11)Develop design discharge equation for Design Discharges of
5-year ARI (Q5) in regions S, M & L using catchment factors
and climate factors,
– Stepwise Variable Selection and Multiple Variables Linear
Least Square Regression were performed
– The reasonability and simplicity of the design discharge
equation are considered
– The number of climate and catchment factors kept to a
minimum, they should also be easy to obtain by end-users.
Page 50
51. Methodology and Results
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Results (Cont.)
For Small Size Region
(i.e. catchment area ≤ 1,000 km2)
Design Discharge Equation:
Q5 = 8.26*10-9 A0.703 I1hr,2yrs5.798
Frequency Factors:
ARI 2 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs 50 yrs 100 yrs
FF 0.34 1.00 1.64 2.43 3.84 5.37
Page 51
60. Outline of the Presentation
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• Introduction
• Study Area and Flow Data
• Methodology and Results
• Conclusions
Page 60
61. Conclusions
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Conclusions
•Design discharges from JDA 2012 can be
applied to whole Drainage Division 7
– ARR1987 and Flavell 2012 cannot generate satisfactory
design discharges in Gascoyne Region
– Doubt about equations from ARR P5 S2 can be applied in
river basin 702, 703, 705, and 710
• No stations were selected at those river basins in the
equations development
Page 61
62. Conclusions
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Conclusions (Cont.)
•Design discharges from JDA 2012 can
be applied to a wide range of
catchment area
– ARR P5 S2 cannot generate satisfactory
design discharges in large catchment
area
• Stations with maximum catchment area of
1,000 km2 were selected
• The catchment areas in Pilbara are large in
particular in downstream areas, say as large as
80,000 km2
Page 62
63. Conclusions
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Conclusions (Cont.)
•The design equations of JDA 2012 is simple and
easy to apply,
– only catchment area and design rainfall intensity are
required in the design discharge equations
– The parameters are easy to obtain
Page 63
64. Conclusions
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Conclusions (Cont.)
•ARR 1987 often over estimated the data (except
river basins 709, 710)
Page 64
65. Study Area and Flow Data
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709 - Port Hedland Coast
707 - Onslow Coast
710 - De Grey River
705 - Lyndon-Minilya
Rivers
708 - Fortescue River
706 - Ashburton River
704 - Gascoyne River
703 - Wooramel River
702 - Murchison River
- Selected Stations (60)
701 - Greenough River
Page 65
66. Conclusions
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Conclusions (Cont.)
•Flavell (2012) may mis-represent due to changes
to measured DoW Flow Data
Page 66
67. Conclusions
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Conclusions (Cont.)
•Method will need recalibrate for revised IFD,
published at H&WR Symposium November 2012
Page 67