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Green schemes 2012_npe_eo_y lecture perth v9
This document summarizes the costs and benefits of Australia's green electricity schemes, including various renewable energy sources and generation technologies. It discusses the schemes' goals of achieving resource sustainability, reducing carbon emissions, and increasing energy independence. It also provides data on the fuel sustainability, carbon intensity, construction costs, dispatch capability, and ability to change output of different generation sources like coal, natural gas, hydro, wind, and solar.
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Green schemes 2012_npe_eo_y lecture perth v9
- 1. Australia’s Green Electricity Schemes Costs and Benefits Perth 13 February 2013 Dr Robert Barr Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 2012 National Professional Electrical Engineer of the Year - National Lecture Tour © Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 2012 1 Perfect Storm of Rising Electricity Costs • Conventional Generation • AEMO Market Charges • Metering • Network Charges – N-1 type regulatory requirements – Somerville Report (2004) – P.M. says “gold plating” • Green Electricity Schemes – Carbon Tax Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 2 1
- 2. Solar Photovoltaic Electric PowerConsulting Pty Ltd 3 Wind Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 4 2
- 3. Hydro Electric Power ConsultingPty Ltd 5 Valley Power, Latrobe Valley, Victoria Australia 300MW Open Cycle Natural Gas 6 x 50MW Peaking Plant – Snowy Hydro Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 6 3
- 4. Eraring Power Station 4x 660 MW Black Coal Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 7 Yallourn Power Station 1,490 MW Brown Coal – 4 units Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 8 4
- 5. Tallawarra Power Station 435 MW Combined Cycle Natural Gas Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 9 Muja Power Station 2 x 200 MW + 2 x 227 MW Coal Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 10 5
- 6. Electric Power ConsultingPty Ltd 11 Electricity Green Schemes • National Schemes – Large Renewable Energy Target (LRET) • includes large wind, solar & hydro – Small Scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) • including solar water heaters, heat pumps, solar panel systems, small-scale wind systems, small hydro – Carbon Tax Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 12 6
- 7. Electricity Green Schemes • NSW Schemes – Energy Saving Scheme (ESS) • incentives to save energy – Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scheme (GHGR) • CO2 abatement scheme – targets with penalties – Solar feed-in tariff (was gross – now net) • Other States – Solar feed-in tariffs – Others? Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 13 Energy Environmental Objectives • Resource Sustainability – How many years can we keep up our current use of resources before they run out? • Reduced Carbon Emissions – How many tonnes of CO2 emissions/year can be saved? • National Energy Independence – Can we sustain our energy needs without undue dependence on overseas supplies? Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 14 7
- 8. Australian Fuel Sustainability Proven Reserves (approximate) Fuel At current At Australian production rates usage rates Brown Coal 1,000 years 1,000 years Black Coal 100 years 240 years Natural Gas 72 years 112 years Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 15 Carbon Intensity Tonnes of Fuel CO2 /MWh Brown Coal 1.4 Black Coal 0.9 Natural Gas Open Cycle Gas 0.65 Turbine Natural Gas Combined Cycle 0.4 Gas Turbine Hydro 0 Wind 0 Solar PV 0 Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 16 8
- 9. Construction Cost $ Capital Tonnes of Fuel Construction CO2 /MWh Cost/MW Brown Coal 1.4 High Black Coal 0.9 High Natural Gas Open Cycle Gas 0.65 Low Turbine Natural Gas Combined Cycle 0.4 Medium Gas Turbine Extremely Hydro 0 high Wind 0 High Solar PV 0 Very high Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 17 Dispatch $ Capital Dispatch Tonnes of Fuel Construction Capable CO2 /MWh Cost/MW Brown Coal 1.4 High Yes Black Coal 0.9 High Yes Natural Gas Open Cycle Gas 0.65 Low Yes Turbine Natural Gas Combined Cycle 0.4 Medium Yes Gas Turbine Extremely Hydro 0 Yes high Wind 0 High No Solar PV 0 Very high No Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 18 9
- 10. Ability to RapidlyChange Output $ Capital Dispatch Ability to Rapidly Tonnes of Fuel Construction Capable Change Output CO2 /MWh Cost/MW Brown Coal 1.4 High Yes No Black Coal 0.9 High Yes No Natural Gas Open Cycle Gas 0.65 Low Yes Yes Turbine Natural Gas Combined Cycle 0.4 Medium Yes Moderate Gas Turbine Extremely Hydro 0 Yes Yes high Wind 0 High No Nil Solar PV 0 Very high No Nil Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 19 Wind • Every 100MW of wind generation requires about 90 MW of conventional generation for backup • All wind generation needs a “dancing partner” • Wind is only financially viable with LRET • Will most likely be the main method of reaching the 20% renewable target for 2020 Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 20 10
- 11. Solar Photovoltaic • Lends itself to distributed use at the domestic level • At 60 c/kWh and other green scheme subsidies it becomes attractive to customers • Is causing network stress Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 21 Embedded Generation Issues • Benefits Negatives ◦ Voltage rise – Reduce network losses ◦ Cold load pick up – Delay augmentations? ◦ Dual power flow analysis – Voltage support? ◦ Some network – Green kWhs? augmentations required 11
- 12. Modeled Conventional Dispatch ElectricPower Consulting Pty Ltd 23 Modeled Small Wind Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 24 12
- 13. Modeled Large ScaleWind 13% Wind Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 25 SA Wind Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 26 13
- 14. Modeled Large ScaleWind Constant Load – Dancing Partner 70% of 0.65 Tonnes CO2/MWH OCG= 0.45 Tonnes CO2/MWH Compare with 0.4 Tonnes CO2/MWH for CCG 30% Wind Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 27 CO2 Emissions + > Wind OCG CCG Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 28 14
- 15. AEMO Data Carbon Tax Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 29 Conclusions • Renewables are only viable with government legislated green schemes • Wind and solar PV generation require large scale conventional “backup” power generation – dancing partners • Economics will drive much of the “back up” generation to be open cycle gas: – Capital cost – Higher CO2 producing plant Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 30 15
- 16. Conclusions • The current policy settings are increasing the use of natural gas – reducing Australia’s sustainability in terms of energy reserves • Greenhouse gas savings are coming mainly from: – the switch from coal to natural gas – Less energy use due to high energy prices and price elasticity • Wind and solar PV in their present form are making little or no direct contribution to CO2 savings • New energy storage breakthroughs are required to make renewables viable Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 31 Important Issues • Increased focus needed on: – end use energy efficiency – Using less electricity – electricity network losses • Research – energy storage • Change of emphasis from: – “feel good” green schemes to policies that have some solid engineering logic • Electricity Network costs – getting away from feast and famine capital investments – improved performance of regulators – taking a longer term view Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 32 16
- 17. Questions? Electric Power ConsultingPty Ltd 33 17