Costa Rica NDC Pathway Design: Assessment of Mitigation Policies Employing the TIMES-Starter Platform

1. DecisionWare Group LLC
Policy Analysis for
Energy, Economy and Environment
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Design:
Assessment of Mitigation Policies
Employing the TIMES-Starter
Platform
Gary Goldstein
Pat DeLaquil
ETSAP Semi-Annual Workshop
June 7, 2019

2. Costa Rica NDC Aspirations
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 2
 Costa Rica set a very aggressive Greenhouse Gas
(GHG) mitigation target in its INDC
A maximum of 9.374 Mt CO2e net emissions by
2030, complemented by
Proposed emissions per capita of
1.73 net tons by 2030,
1.19 net tons by 2050 and
-0.27 net tons by 2100
 Achieving these goals, especially given Costa
Rica’s relatively low carbon intensity, will
require aggressive actions and policies

3. Key Objectives of the Project
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 3
 Develop a country-specific energy systems model with
input parameters validated and the resulting Baseline
scenario approved by local experts and key
stakeholders;
 Identify the policies and measures politically,
technically, and economically feasible for Costa Rica;
 Assess a Planned set of proposed mitigation policies and
actions;
 Identify an Enhanced set of policies & measures to
enable Costa Rica to achieve its NDC target, and
 Build local capacity to take over stewardship and
ongoing use of the national energy planning platform.

4. Major Project Activities
Activity 3. Simulate the
Baseline, Planned policy and
Enhanced policy scenarios
Activity 4. Analyze results
and produce report and
presentation
Activity 2. Develop
modeling framework,
database and tools
Activity 1. Develop
detailed modeling work
plan and country data
Activity 5. Provide hands-on training and take part in consultations
Enhanced Policies &
NDC pathway and
hands-on TIMES-CR
training
Baseline & Planned
Policy scenario review
TIMES-Costa Rica Model
Data
development &
initial training
Obtain Energy
Balance, load curve
& other relevant
national data
Transform the
TIMES-Starter
model
Define
policies &
measures
Resolve data issues
& plug gaps
Assess model results
Refine model
assumptions & behavior
Proposed
NDC
pathway
Refinements to NDC
pathway
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 4
Project timeline
12 months

5. TRANSFORMING
TIMES-STARTER TO TIMES-NDC
DecisionWare Group LLC
Policy Analysis for
Energy, Economy and Environment

6. TIMES-Starter Model Management
Platform
• Data is
assembled in
“linked” Excel
workbooks
• Managed by
VEDA-FE
• Submitted to
TIMES
(GAMS)
• Post-
processed by
VEDA-BE
• Analyzed via
the Analytics
graphing
workbook
Existing
Technology
Stock
New
Technology
Options
Demand
Projection
Base Year
Energy Balance
& Load Curve
Reference
Scenario
Guidance
Results
Analysis
Workbook
Base Year
Calibration
Check
Policy
Scenarios
VEDA-FE
Model
Management
VEDA-BE
Results
Management
TIMES
(GAMS)

7. NDC Analysis - Model Tailoring
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 7
 TIMES-NDC country data preparation (via local Planning Team)
o Energy balance, current power sector configuration and electricity load
curve, demand drivers, and known policies & measures
 Transform the TIMES-Starter to TIMES-CostaRica
 Calibration of the base year
 Tailoring of the source data to the local conditions
o Default Technology characterization - USEPA/DTU/PIEM/Other sources
 Establishment of the Reference Scenario
o Physical & practical limits on renewables
o Tailoring the rate of EE uptake, fuel & device switching
o Recent and firm planted new power plant and transmission lines, as well as
refineries/LNG terminals or gas pipelines,
o Relevant policies (e.g., EE/RE targets and programs, emission caps)
 Design Policy Runs
o Identify the individual polices & measures to be considered
o Establish naming conventions and build an appropriate set of test scenarios
around a range of EE/RE levels [the VFE ~Par facilities can be quite useful
for the exploratory phase (for advanced users)
o Nukes/No Nukes, CCS potential

8. NDC Analysis – Scenario Analysis
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 8
 Carry-out Exploratory Scenario Assessment
o Align CaseManger and VBE/AXLS Scenarios
o Setup the AXLS(NDC-MM) sheet
o Conduct the exploratory model runs
o Identify the appropriate instances of EE/RE/other levels to used for the
core analysis runs
 Conduct the NDC Analysis
o Perform model runs
o Examine the model behavior
• AXLS Metrics/NDC MM
• Trend/Difference/CUM aspects of the standard Graphing sheets
• Other derived tables
o Run relevant policy variants (e.g., EE/RE targets and programs, emission
caps, nuke/no-nuke)
 Determining the NDC Pathway
o Identify the individual polices & measures that are most advantageous
• AXLS - MEI, MET, Metrics, NDC MM and Details sheets
• NDC_Investment - profile / requirements

9. NDC Analysis – Results Dissemination
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 9
 Determining the NDC Pathway
o Identify the individual polices & measures that are most advantageous
• AXLS - MEI, MET, Metrics, NDC MM and Details sheets
• NDC_Investment - profile / requirements
• Multi-case comparison trend/difference/cum
o Assess collective and cross-sector polices & measures that are most
advantageous
• Contribution towards achieving NDC aspirations
• Increased competitiveness (reduced fuel expenditure and targeted investments)
• The adoption of VRE / EE
• Energy security - affect on imports and balance of payments
• Perform sensitivity analysis on any key variants arising from local circumstances
(e.g., nuke/no-nuke, LNG/pipeline/etc.)
 Communicating the Message
o Prepare a strong Executive Summary highlighting the take-away messages
overall and for each sector
o Prepare briefing PPT and draft report (including all model assumptions)
o Review and vetting
o Finalizing model, PPT, report
o Dissemination

10. Analytics Multi-case Comparison
Graphing & Metrics Workbook
Results tables are exported & dynamically updated from VBE to the Analytics workbook,
where presentation & report quality tables & graphs are prepared automatically.
2012$M %Difference GW %Difference
Base - v11 109,937 Base - v11 1.28
Renewable Electricity Share 109,874 -0.1% Renewable Electricity Share 1.21 94.7%
Limit Electricity Consumption 111,223 1.2% Limit Electricity Consumption 0.96 75.1%
Limit Electricity Generation 110,073 0.1% Limit Electricity Generation 1.07 83.9%
PJ %Difference 2012$M %Difference
Base - v11 5,245 Base - v11 3,190
Renewable Electricity Share 5,226 -0.4% Renewable Electricity Share 2,907 -8.9%
Limit Electricity Consumption 5,322 1.5% Limit Electricity Consumption 2,472 -22.5%
Limit Electricity Generation 5,163 -1.6% Limit Electricity Generation 2,817 -11.7%
PJ %Difference 2012$M %Difference
Base - v11 21 Base - v11 50,163
Renewable Electricity Share 21 0.0% Renewable Electricity Share 49,997 -0.3%
Limit Electricity Consumption 21 0.0% Limit Electricity Consumption 52,462 4.6%
Limit Electricity Generation 21 0.0% Limit Electricity Generation 50,098 -0.1%
PJ %Difference kt %Difference
Base - v11 2,489 Base - v11 293,340
Renewable Electricity Share 2,485 -0.2% Renewable Electricity Share 278,965 -4.9%
Limit Electricity Consumption 2,673 7.4% Limit Electricity Consumption 288,736 -1.6%
Limit Electricity Generation 2,484 -0.2% Limit Electricity Generation 284,537 -3.0%
CO2 Emissions
Scenario
Fuel Expenditures
Scenario
Electrity Generation
Scenario
Final Energy Consumption
Scenario
Scenario
Primary Energy
Scenario
Electricity Investment
Scenario
System Cost
Scenario
Power Plant Builds

11. ANALYZING THE MITIGATION
OPTIONS
DecisionWare Group LLC
Policy Analysis for
Energy, Economy and Environment

12. Transport Sector Individual
Measures
Scenario Name Description
PMR Mitigation
Measure Number
LDV clunkers Force earlier retirement of about 20% of the existing LDVs 232
25% share of hybrid in LDV New stock By 2030 achieve 25% (50% by 2050) of New cars are hybrids or electric 241, 288, 289
25% share of electric in LDV New stock By 2030 achieve 25% (50% by 2050) of New cars are hybrids or electric 241, 288, 289
25% share of electric and hybrid in LDV
New stock
By 2030 achieve 25% (50% by 2050) of New cars are hybrids or electric 241, 288, 289
100% share of advanced techs in Public
Transport New stock
Improve share of Advanced Taxis, Buses and Mini-buses to 100% of new stock by
2050
286
Rail Freight Improve rail freight capacity to shift 25% of heavy truck demand to rail by 2050. 74-114
Intercity Rail
Intercity train connecting the four main cities shifts 57 mpkm from LDV to
passenger rail in 2030.
112
Integrated Public Transport System
15% shift to Bus, improvement of load factor by 8%, reduction of distances by 33%
and decrease of vehicle efficiency by 17%. Share of large busses 34%. Costs are
unchanged.
72, 73, 282
5% shift of passenger transport to Non-
motorized modes (cycling, walking)
Assumes 5% shift to NMT by 2030. 60% is shifted from bus demand, 40% is shifted
from LDV demand.
245, 246
Demand Controlling measures
10% of LDVs are affected. LDV demand reduces by 3% by 2020 and 4% by 2030.
80% of reduced demand is shifted to buses.
113, 284
50% share of AdvTechs in all transport
modes
Improve efficiency of all Road vehicles by allowing up to 50% penetration of
improved and advanced techs by 2050.
241, 286, 288
90% share of AdvTechs in all transport
modes
Allow 90% Advanced technologies and 50% fuel shift in Transport sector 231
5.4% shift from LDV to tram
To improve urban mass transit plans to shift 5.4% of LDV demand to urban trains
by 2030
* Enhanced *
Green driving
Measure affects 50% of vehicles. LDV and taxi efficiency is increased by 5%, bus,
mini-bus and LCV by 2%
* Enhanced *
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 12

13. Transport Sector Results
• Most individual measures reduce between 1 and 10 Mt in GHG emissions.
• Incentives for Electric vehicles generate more reductions than Hybrids.
• Measures that allow 50% or 90% advanced technologies reduce GHG emissions
by 19 to 27 Mt, respectively.
• Two-thirds of the Transport sector measures have attractive MEI’s.
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 13
Transport Sector GHG Emission Reductions and
Mitigation Effectiveness Indicator (MEI)

14. Sectoral Results
• Buildings sector efficiency measures are cost-effective and reduce power plant capacity
needs by 800 MW.
• Industry sector efficiency measures are most effective when they reduce fossil fuel
consumption through biofuels and electrification of end-use services, although
increasing power plant capacity needs by 700 MW.
• All Planned measures with biofuels reduce almost 104 Mt in GHG emission.
• An additional 41 Mt of reductions are needed to meet the NDC target.
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 14
GHG Emission Reductions by Energy Sector and
Mitigation Effectiveness Indicator (MEI)

15. ANALYZING POLICY GAPS
DecisionWare Group LLC
Policy Analysis for
Energy, Economy and Environment

16. Cumulative GHG Emissions by
Sector: 2015-2050 (kt CO2 eq.)
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 16
Source
Baseline - ICE
Exp Plan to 2027
Planned &
Enhanced
Measures
Planned & Enhanced
Measures with GHG
60%
Additional
Reductions
Needed
Agriculture 7,316 5,974 5,727 247
Commercial 5,540 5,621 4,508 1,113
Industry 63,980 45,875 33,268 12,608
Power 1,219 1,218 1,217 1
Residential 6,910 6,361 5,143 1,219
Transport 260,029 170,607 145,097 25,510
Total Energy
Sector
353,398 244,119 203,144 40,975
• Planned & Enhanced Measures make significant
reductions, mostly in Transport and Industry, but a 41
Mt gap in cumulative GHG emission reductions remains.
• To achieve the NDC target, additional reductions are
needed in the Transport and Industry sectors, which
account for almost 93% of the additional reductions.

17. Transport Energy use by Mode
• Enhanced measures primarily impact LDVs.
• For the NDC target, most cost-effective reductions can be found from LDVs,
Light commercial trucks and Medium & Heavy trucks.
• LDV emission reductions occur throughout the modeling period, as more hybrid
and electric vehicles are deployed.
• Reductions are available early for Light trucks, and later for Medium trucks.
• Reductions for Air transport occur later in the planning horizon.
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 17
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Planned & Enhanced Measures Planned & Enhanced Measures with GHG 60%
PJ
Difference from All Planned Power, Efficiency and Transport Measures
Taxi
Shipping
Rail Passenger
Off Road
Motorcycles
Mini-Bus
Medium Trucks
Light Duty Vehicles
Heavy Trucks Short haul
Heavy Trucks Long Haul
Commercial Trucks
Bus
Air

18. Public Transport Technology Changes
• Planned measures move Buses to biodiesel and larger sizes. But the NDC
scenario redirects the some biodiesel to Trucks, and uses more diesel buses of
both sizes.
• Planned measures move Minibuses into gasoline hybrid and electric vehicles. To
reach the NDC goal, all minibuses shift to electric vehicles.
• Planned measures move Taxis into electric vehicles and hybrids. To reach the
NDC goal, almost all taxis transition to electric vehicles, although hybrids remain.
• There are no Planned measures for Air transport, but technology improvements
should be expected.
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 18
Positive
Negative
Quality Technology Planned - Baseline Enhanced - Planned NDC - Enhanced NDC - Baseline
Improved 0 0 54,888 54,888
Other 0 0 -54,713 -54,713
Advanced 80,968 10,670 -31,479 60,159
Hybrids 5,260 0 3,102 8,362
Improved 13,472 -10,670 32,866 35,668
Other -116,893 0 -2,833 -119,726
Hybrids 73,063 0 -87,179 -14,116
Other -190,137 0 278 -189,859
Plug-in vehicles 117,074 0 98,650 215,724
Passenger rail Other 43,254 0 0 43,254
Hybrids 2,544 0 -902 1,641
Other -18,440 0 -161 -18,601
Plug-in vehicles 15,940 0 2,731 18,671
Change in Energy Use by Technology Type (PJ)
Taxi
Air
Bus
Minibuses

19. LDV Technology Changes
• Planned measures move LDVs into plug-in, bio-fuels and hybrid vehicles.
• Known Enhanced measures continue the trend to plug-in vehicles.
• To meet the NDC target, all vehicles move to electricity and plug-in vehicles with
increased biofuel use.
• LPG use increases with Planned measures but is eliminated with the Enhanced
and NDC measures
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 19
Quality Technology Planned - Baseline Enhanced - Planned NDC - Enhanced NDC - Baseline
Hybrids 8,942 1,596 -13,555 -3,017
Other -273,931 -60,944 -17,892 -352,767
Plug-in vehicles 171,124 59,348 66,681 297,152
Change in Energy Use by Technology Type (PJ)
Light Duty
Vehicles
Positive
Negative
Fuel Planned - Baseline Enhanced - Planned NDC - Enhanced NDC - Baseline
Aviation gasoline 0 0 0 0
BioDiesel 383 -10 11 384
BioGasoline 170 -8 86 247
BioJet-Kerosene 52 0 -3 50
Diesel -679 -27 -52 -758
Electricity 115 42 109 266
Gasoline -528 -7 -239 -775
Jet Fuel -52 0 -14 -67
LPG 89 -51 -40 -2
LDV Fuel Use Changes (PJ)

20. Freight Technology Changes
• Planned measures shift Light trucks to Improved, Advanced and Hybrid types, and
decreases gasoline, diesel and LPG consumption while increasing biodiesel use.
• Planned measures shift most demand to heavy long-haul trucks, and to reach the
NDC target, biodiesel use increases, along with continued shift to Improved long-
haul trucks and Advanced short-haul trucks.
• Planned measures favor Improved and Hybrid technologies for Shipping and
Improved technologies for Off-road, while to reach the NDC target, existing
technologies retire early and more hybrid technologies are added.
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 20
Quality Technology Planned - Baseline Enhanced - Planned NDC - Enhanced NDC - Baseline
Advanced 50,582 0 -13,405 37,178
Hybrids 46,343 -6,579 17,892 57,656
Improved 29,769 6,579 -10,732 25,616
Other -126,694 0 30,120 -96,575
Advanced 2,421 0 4,929 7,349
Hybrids 39,932 -29,907 73,372 83,397
Improved 54,918 0 44,650 99,568
Other -222,078 29,907 -88,614 -280,785
Rail Freight Other 124,807 0 0 124,807
Hybrids 3,418 0 -260 3,158
Improved 3,099 0 -2,560 538
Other -6,517 0 5,503 -1,014
Off-road Improved 13 -2 7 18
Change in Energy Use by Technology Type (PJ)
Light Trucks
Medium & Heavy
trucks
Ship
Positive
Negative

21. Transport Sector Measures
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 21
 Key Planned
 Targets for electric and plug-in vehicles for LDVs, Taxis, Minibuses
and Buses.
 Public transit measures and mode shifts from truck to rail.
 Enhanced
 Increase incentives for electric vehicles, especially for LDVs, Taxis,
Minibuses and Buses to allow more liquid biodiesel use for trucks of
all classes, Shipping and Off-road.
 Develop a domestic biofuel resource development program to avoid
the need for imports.

22. DETERMINING THE NDC ROADMAP
DecisionWare Group LLC
Policy Analysis for
Energy, Economy and Environment

23. Electricity Generation and
New Power Plants
• By 2050, 20% additional electricity
generation is needed from wind, biofuels
and run-of-river hydropower.
• Known Enhanced measures add 220 MW
of mostly wind.
• NDC Target needs new measures to add
1360 MW of renewables and increases
power sector investment needs by $3.5B
above the Planned policies.
Change in New Power Plant Capacity, 2015-2050 (MW)
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 23
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
All Planned Power, Efficiency and Transport
Measures
Planned & Enhanced Measures Planned & Enhanced Measures with
GHG 60%
GWh
Electric Generation (by Type)
Wind
Storage for Wind &
Solar
Solar
Oil-fired
Hydro regulated
Hydro - Run of River
Geothermal
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Planned & Enhanced Measures Planned & Enhanced Measures with GHG 60%
GWh
Difference from All Planned Power, Efficiency and Transport
Measures
Wind
Solar
Oil-fired
Hydro regulated
Hydro - Run of River
Geothermal
Biomass fired CHPs
Biofuel-fired
Technology
Planned -
Baseline
Enhanced -
Planned
NDC -
Enhanced
NDC -
Baseline
Biofuel-fired -165 -4 113 -55
Geothermal 307 -197 0 110
Hydro - Run of River -91 465 535 909
Hydro regulated 0 0 0 0
Oil-fired -152 -114 0 -266
Solar 740 -566 0 174
Wind -191 636 710 1155
Total 448 220 1358 2026

24. Change in Final Energy Consumption
• NDC target scenario requires more
use of bio-diesel, bio-gasoline and
electricity, displacing mainly
petroleum products.
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 24
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Planned & Enhanced Measures Planned & Enhanced Measures with GHG 60%
PJ
Difference from All Planned Power, Efficiency and Transport
Measures
Renewables
Other Oil Products
LPG
Kerosene
Jet Fuel
Gasoline
Fuelwood
Fuel Oil
Electricity
Diesel
Conservation
Coal
BioJet-Kerosene
BioGasoline
Biogases
BioDiesel
Aviation gasoline
Agricurltural waste and residues
Fuel
Planned -
Baseline
Enhanced -
Planned
NDC -
Enhanced
NDC -
Baseline
Agricultural residues 29.57 0.18 -4.86 24.89
Aviation gasoline 0.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.25
BioDiesel 390.36 -7.42 20.42 403.35
BioGasoline 169.71 -7.55 88.28 250.43
BioJet-Kerosene 53.10 0.00 -2.61 50.50
Biogases 27.00 -0.86 5.00 31.14
Coal 4.87 -0.41 -6.08 -1.62
Diesel -769.26 -21.65 -61.42 -852.33
Electricity 77.65 53.88 247.03 378.56
Fuel Oil -55.58 -0.15 -2.45 -58.18
Fuelwood 38.30 -2.90 -10.74 24.66
Gasoline -518.24 -17.31 -243.46 -779.00
Jet Fuel -56.67 0.00 -14.17 -70.84
Kerosene -6.60 0.00 -0.24 -6.84
LPG 38.52 -61.48 -145.35 -168.31
Other Oil Products -51.52 -3.24 -67.39 -122.15
Renewables 13.94 -0.72 0.96 14.18
Total -614.83 -69.66 -197.34 -881.83
Cumulative change in Final Energy Use,
2015 - 2050 (PJ)
• Known Enhanced measures
increase electricity use, and
reduce gasoline and LPG use,
primarily in Transport.

25. Industry Sub-sector
Energy Use Changes
• Known Enhanced measures delay and reduce mostly the Food & Tobacco
sub-sector.
• NDC target requires additional reductions primarily from the Food and
Tobacco and Other subsectors along with some increased use of biofuels in
the Wood Products subsector.
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 25

26. Industry Sector Fuel Use Changes
• Known Enhanced measures increase fuel switching from LPG to electricity.
• NDC Target requires additional measures reduce petroleum coke and LPG,
both of which are switched to electricity.
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 26

27. Chemicals Sub-Sector
• Planned measures shift all new device purchases from Standard technology
quality to Improved. (Industry currently has no Advanced options.)
• Motor drive that is using LPG shifts to electricity.
• Steam generation and process heat shift from fuel oil and LPG to electricity.
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 27
End-use Quality Technology Planned - Baseline Enhanced - Planned NDC - Enhanced NDC - Baseline
ICHELCOT-IM 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.06
ICHOILDSLOT-IM 0.03 0.03
ICHOILKEROT-IM -0.06 0.00 -0.03 -0.08
ICHELCOT-ST 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ICHOILKEROT-ST 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ICHELCMD-IM 9.65 0.00 4.88 14.53
ICHOILLPGMD-IM -11.94 -11.94
Standard ICHELCMD-ST 0.26 0.00 -2.58 -2.32
ICHELCPH-IM -3.16 0.04 5.19 2.07
ICHOILDSLPH-IM 0.00 0.00
ICHOILLPGPH-IM 2.33 -0.48 -2.30 -0.44
ICHELCPH-ST 0.02 -0.02 -0.19 -0.19
ICHOILLPGPH-ST -0.10 0.13 -0.80 -0.77
ICHELCST-IM 5.67 0.00 0.38 6.05
ICHOILDSLST-IM -1.32 0.00 0.01 -1.31
ICHOILFOIST-IM -3.56 0.32 0.46 -2.78
ICHOILLPGST-IM -0.93 0.00 0.00 -0.93
ICHELCST-ST 0.10 0.00 -0.35 -0.25
ICHOILDSLST-ST 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00
ICHOILFOIST-ST 0.02 -0.32 -0.46 -0.75
ICHOILLPGST-ST 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Standard
Improved
Machine drive
Improved
Facilities/other
Process heat
Standard
Improved
Standard
Improved
Steam
Change in Eneryg Use by Technology Type (PJ)
Positive
Negative

28. Industry Sector Measures
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 28
 Key Planned
 Targets for utilization of biomass residues in the Agro-
industry.
 Measure to reduce fossil fuel use in Other (cement) sub-
sector.
 Enhanced
 Measures to further decrease the use of LPG, Fuel Oil and
Petroleum coke.
 Increase incentives for use of solid and liquid biofuels,
especially for process heat and steam generation.
 Develop a domestic biofuel market to support stable long-
term pricing.

29. Industry Sub-Sector Key Mitigation
Measures: Food & Tobacco Example
 Planned measures use
 LPG for Facilities
 Biogas and Bagasse cogeneration for Machine Drive
 Fuelwood, Other organic resides and Coffee husk for Process heat
and Steam
 Diesel, fuel oil and LPG use are reduced
 To meet the NDC target, the model
 Shifts Facilities to electricity
 Increases biogas and bagasse cogeneration for Machine Drive
 Increases Process heat and Steam production with Bagasse, LPG
and electricity
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 29

30. TIMES-NDC Ongoing Role
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 30
 Building local planning capacity
o Essential during data collection, model setup stage, identification of known
policies and measures along with NDC aspirations
o Coordinative with the key Ministries and stakeholders (most notably power
company(s))
o Learning-by-doing observing the model development process
o Review the BAU and Reference scenario results exploiting the TIMES-NDC analysis
support facilities
o Understand the Scenario design & testing process
o Improve and update data as new sources come to light
o Perform sensitivity analysis and run new scenarios as the need arises
 Updating TIMES-NDC for future NDC submissions
o NDCs must be revisited, Baselines re-evaluated and more aggressive GHG reduction
targets set on a regular (5-year) basis
o Update the technology characteristics, fuel costs, and demand for energy services,
and perhaps the MileStoneYears
o Establish the current/new Emission Baseline, that takes into consideration actions
already taken/underway
o Design any new policies and/or measures that are to be examined, including the
future emission trajectory
o Repeat the process outlined in the NDC Analysis Steps on slide 7-9
o Perform other relevant policy assessments in support of government energy
sector planning

31. Thank You!
Contact Information
Gary.A.Goldstein@Gmail.com
Costa Rica NDC Pathway Analysis 31