This document summarizes the findings of a study on the energy sector's contribution to climate action in Latin America. It finds that while Latin America's emissions are currently small at around 9% of the global total, they have grown 57% in the last 40 years and are rising fast. The study uses an energy modeling tool called TIMES-ALyC to evaluate the potential impacts of countries' Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) on emissions and the energy system in Latin America out to 2050. It finds that the INDCs would reduce emissions more significantly than the earlier NAMA pledges, with emissions falling 24-32%

1. Sébastien POSTIC, Sandrine SELOSSE, Nadia MAÏZI
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University
Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées MINES ParisTech
Energy sector contribution to climate
action
-
The case of Latin America
October 22nd, 2015 ETSAP Workshop, Sophia-Antipolis

2. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France2/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
Latin America: small yet growing emissions
450 Millions
hab.
GDP 2012:
5,000 G$
6%
8%
9% gobal GHG
emissions
+57% in 40
years
CC cost :
1.5% to 5%
of GDP
(Sources : CIA World Factbook, GIEC, CEPAL)

3. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France3/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
Latin America: small yet growing emissions
450 Millions
hab.
GDP 2012:
5,000 G$
6%
8%
9% gobal GHG
emissions
+57% in 40
years
CC cost :
1.5% to 5%
of GDP
(Sources : CIA World Factbook, GIEC, CEPAL)

4. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France4/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
Energy sector is transforming fast
Global average:
14%
5% of world’s
consumption
2009 : 30
millions w/o
electricity
2001-2010:
+32% TPES
(Sources : AIE, European Commission, CIER, GIEC)
UE: 80%
X 2 in 40 years
Final consumption
2012:
460Mtoe
Average hydro
share:
60%
Energy share in
regional emisisons:
20%

5. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France5/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
Prospective tool: TIMES-ALyC (1)

6. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France6/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
- Cumulative potentials 2010-2050
- Including (right) or not (left) oil/solar/biomass
Porspective tool: TIMES-ALyC (2)
T-ALyC’s primary energy potentials (EJ)

7. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France7/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
National climate pledges: NAMAs
-38 % GHG in 2020
compared to BAU
-20 % GHG in 2020
compared to 2007
BAU
Biofuel support, energy
efficiency, waste
reduction, wind
energy, national
parks...
77 % renewable electricity in 2020
20 % biofuels in 2020
Afforestation minimum 44 MtCO2eq
82 % oil in primary energy
80 % hydroelectricity
90 % de renewable electricity
0 % net deforestation by 2021
33 % renewables in final energy
15 % renewable electricity
30 % Waste-to-Energy
Non-exhaustive review based on National
Communications to the UNFCCC

8. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France8/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
National climate pledges: INDCs
-43 % GHG in 2020
below 2005 levels
Reductions below BAU
Non AFOLU: -30%/-45% CO2 intens.
AFOLU: 1.5 MtCO2eq removal
Non-exhaustive review based on National
INDC submissions to the UNFCCC
Reductions below BAU
Unilateral: -15% GHG
Conditional: -30% GHG
Forestry: store 13-19 PGCO2/yr
Energy: -25%/-40% CO2 intensity
Agric.:-33%/-40% N2O,CH4 intens.
Reductions below BAU
Unilateral: -20% GHG
Conditional: -30% GHG
Reductions below BAU
Unilateral: -20% GHG
Conditional: -30% GHG
Reductions below BAU
Energy: -25%/-45.8% GHG
Forestry: reforestation of 1,300,000 ha

9. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France9/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
National committments: scenarios
-38 % GHG in 2020
compared to BAU
-20 % in 2020
compared to 2007
BAU
77 % Renewable electricity in 2020
20 % biofuels in 2020
Minimal afforestation 44 MtCO2eq
82 % oil in primary energy
80% hydroelectricity
90 % electricity from RNW sources
0 % net deforestation in 2021
33 % Renewables in final energy
15 % renewable electricity
30 % Waste-to-Energy
333 MtCO2eq
570 MtCO2eq
310 MtCO2eq
1,200 MtCO2eq
158 MtCO2eq
268 MtCO2eq
304 MtCO2eq
235 MtCO2eq
270 MtCO2eq
283 MtCO2eq
293 MtCO2eq
276 MtCO2eq
1,200 MtCO2eq
84 MtCO2eq
214 MtCO2eq
270 MtCO2eq
277 MtCO2eq
469 MtCO2eq
276 MtCO2eq
1,200 MtCO2eq
124 MtCO2eq

10. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France10/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
National committments: scenarios
-38 % GHG in 2020
compared to BAU
-20 % in 2020
compared to 2007
BAU
77 % Renewable electricity in 2020
20 % biofuels in 2020
Minimal afforestation 44 MtCO2eq
82 % oil in primary energy
80% hydroelectricity
90 % electricity from RNW sources
0 % net deforestation in 2021
33 % Renewables in final energy
15 % renewable electricity
30 % Waste-to-Energy
NAMAs Uni_Nat Cond_Nat Cond_TALyC
333 MtCO2eq
570 MtCO2eq
310 MtCO2eq
1,200 MtCO2eq
158 MtCO2eq
268 MtCO2eq
304 MtCO2eq
235 MtCO2eq
270 MtCO2eq
283 MtCO2eq
293 MtCO2eq
276 MtCO2eq
1,200 MtCO2eq
84 MtCO2eq
214 MtCO2eq
270 MtCO2eq
277 MtCO2eq
469 MtCO2eq
276 MtCO2eq
1,200 MtCO2eq
124 MtCO2eq

11. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France11/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
INDCs vs. NAMAs: overall impacts
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010 2012 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Emissions(GtCO2eq)
BAU
NAMAs
Uni_Nat
Cond_Nat
Cond_TALyC
• NAMAs emissions are 21% below BAU in 2030
• INDCs emissions range from 24% to 32% below BAU
• Stringent past-2030 bound in INDCs.

12. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France12/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
Impact on ELC – a virtuous BAU
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Electricityproduction(TWh/yr)
Waste-to-energy
Wind
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
2030 2050

13. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France13/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
Impact on ELC – a virtuous BAU
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Electricityproduction(TWh/yr)
Waste-to-energy
Wind
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
2030 2050

14. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France14/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
Impacts on ELC: Electrification, decarbonization
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
NAMAs Uni_Nat Cond_Nat Cond_TALyC
Variationinelectricityproduction(TWh/yr)
Waste-to-energy
Wind
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
BSE BWC ARG CHL COL/CYC AND/BPU/
SUG/VEN
Variationinelectricityproduction(TWh/yr)

15. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France15/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
Impacts on ELC: Electrification, decarbonization
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
NAMAs Uni_Nat Cond_Nat Cond_TALyC
Variationinelectricityproduction(TWh/yr)
Waste-to-energy
Wind
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal

16. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France16/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
BAU Primary energy: room for improvement
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Primaryenergyproduction(Mtoe/yr)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
2030 2050

17. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France17/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
BAU Primary energy: room for improvement
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Primaryenergyproduction(Mtoe/yr)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
2030 2050

18. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France18/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
Impact on TPES: BSE drives decarbonization
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
NAMAs Uni_Nat Cond_Nat Cond_TALyC
Variationinprimaryenergyconsumption(Mtoe/yr)
(N.B.:includesexternaltradeonly)
Elc
Wind
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal

19. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France19/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
Non-energy reductions
BAU Cond_TALyC
2030 sectorial emissions under two climate scenarios

20. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France20/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
Concluding remarks
• A quite specific climate-energy context
– Clean electricity => the challenge is not EU’s one...
– Non-energy GHGs => adapt the modeling framework
• Improvement of INDCs over NAMAs
– But what’s next after 2030?
– Ambitious strategy is achievable
• Relevance of energy exports
– Interest of coupling TIAM and TALyC
• Climate change adaptation
– A local, renewable energy mix
– How to hedge against CC effects? => stoch. TIMES
– Overcapacity versus regional integration....

21. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France21/16
O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i
Thank you for your attention!
Contact:
sebastien.postic@mines-paristech.fr