The document discusses using the VEDA TIMES-Starter modeling platform to support Costa Rica's efforts under the Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) to develop pathways for achieving its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets. The project would build Costa Rica-specific energy system models, analyze baseline and policy scenarios, and provide training to build local expertise in using models for policy analysis and target setting. The VEDA TIMES-Starter is presented as tool that could facilitate this work by drawing on existing modeling best practices and data sources.

1. DecisionWare Group LLC
Policy Analysis for
Energy, Economy and Environment
VEDA TIMES-Starter Proposal
Costa Rica NDC Pathway
Assessment using TIMES-
Starter_CR &
PMR Technical Workshop
Presented by
Gary Goldstein
ETSAP 70th Semi-Annual Workshop
CIEMAT, Madrid, Spain
November 17-18, 2017

2. VEDA TIMES-Starter
•ANSWER TIMES-Starter platform a demonstrated
success at IEA for China & for World Bank support
to the Costa Rica NDC pathway undertaking
•VEDA TIMES-Starter will
o Build on the approach & knowledge gained from the
ANSWER TIMES-Starter
o Use the USEPA US9r(T) model as a primary data source
o Employ an item mapping & VLOOKUP approach to aligning
Starter Energy Balance and technology characterization
repositories to easily tap other (open) data sources (e.g.,
JRC EU/UCL UK/other models)
o Augment the ANSWER TIMES-Starter Guidelines & training
material
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VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR
NDC Pathways Undertakings

3. WB-CR PMR Project Objectives
Support the efforts of the Costa Rica
Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR)
{Un1der the auspices of the World Bank the PMR is a forum for
collective innovation and action and a fund to support capacity
building to scale up climate change mitigation -
https://www.thepmr.org/}
• Identify the policies and measures politically, technically, and
economically feasible for Costa Rica
• Develop a country-specific energy systems model with input
parameters validated and the resulting Baseline scenario approved
by local experts and key stakeholders
• Develop a Planned policy scenario to assess existing and proposed
mitigation policies and actions
• Develop Enhanced policy scenarios for Costa Rica to achieve its NDC
targets made up of plausible mitigation policies and actions
• Build the local capacity so that experts can use the TIMES-CR model
to advise policy on an ongoing basis
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VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR
NDC Pathways Undertakings

4. Major Project Activities
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Activity 3. Simulate the
Baseline, Planned policy and
Enhanced policy scenarios
Activity 4. Analyze results
and produce report and
presentation
Activity 2. Develop
modeling framework,
database and tools
Activity 1. Develop
detailed modeling work
plan and country data
Activity 5. Provide hands-on training and take part in consultations
3rd Mission: Enhanced
Policies & NDC
pathway, & in-depth
TIMES-CR training
2nd Mission: Baseline &
Planned Policy scenario
review, & hands-on
TIMES-CR training
TIMES-Costa Rica Model
1st Mission: Data
development &
initial training
Obtain Energy
Balance, load curve
& other relevant
national data
Transform the
TIMES-Starter
model
Define
policies &
measures
Resolve data issues
& plug gaps
Assess model results
Refine model
assumptions & behavior
Proposed
NDC
pathway
Refinements to NDC
pathway
Here in <2
months!
PMR Technical
Workshop
VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR
NDC Pathways Undertakings

5. TIMES-Starter Model Management
Platform
•Data is assembled
in “Smart” Excel
workbooks
•Managed by
ANSWER (or
VEDA-FE)
•Submitted to
TIMES (GAMS)
•Post-processed by
VEDA-BE
•Analyzed via the
Analytics graphing
workbook
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TIMES-Starter
• Has a comprehensive set of existing & new technologies to draw on (USDOE)
• Employs best modeling practices to depict the underlying energy system properly
• Is easily customizable for particular national situations
• Has a comprehensive model management tools that oversee all aspects of working
with TIMES VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR
NDC Pathways Undertakings

6. PMR Technical Workshop
Paving the Way for NDC Implementation:
Analyzing Policy Options and Modeling Carbon Pricing
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• Under the Paris Agreement countries
commit to evaluating how their NDCs
perform over time and to what extent
and how the NDCs can be
strengthened in order to help close
the current global mitigation gap.
• Against this backdrop, the Partnership
for Market Readiness’ (PMR) Policy
Analysis Work Program aims to support
countries in refining the analytical
underpinning of countries’ NDC target
setting and implementation
roadmaps, through building technical
capacity, developing and sharing
relevant analytical approaches and
tools, and supporting the modeling
and analysis of policy instruments
recognizing the crucial role of carbon
pricing in achieving effective
implementation of NDCs.
VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR
NDC Pathways Undertakings

7. Analytics Multi-case Comparison
Graphing & Metrics Workbook
2012$M %Difference GW %Difference
Base - v11 109,937 Base - v11 1.28
Renewable Electricity Share 109,874 -0.1% Renewable Electricity Share 1.21 94.7%
Limit Electricity Consumption 111,223 1.2% Limit Electricity Consumption 0.96 75.1%
Limit Electricity Generation 110,073 0.1% Limit Electricity Generation 1.07 83.9%
PJ %Difference 2012$M %Difference
Base - v11 5,245 Base - v11 3,190
Renewable Electricity Share 5,226 -0.4% Renewable Electricity Share 2,907 -8.9%
Limit Electricity Consumption 5,322 1.5% Limit Electricity Consumption 2,472 -22.5%
Limit Electricity Generation 5,163 -1.6% Limit Electricity Generation 2,817 -11.7%
PJ %Difference 2012$M %Difference
Base - v11 21 Base - v11 50,163
Renewable Electricity Share 21 0.0% Renewable Electricity Share 49,997 -0.3%
Limit Electricity Consumption 21 0.0% Limit Electricity Consumption 52,462 4.6%
Limit Electricity Generation 21 0.0% Limit Electricity Generation 50,098 -0.1%
PJ %Difference kt %Difference
Base - v11 2,489 Base - v11 293,340
Renewable Electricity Share 2,485 -0.2% Renewable Electricity Share 278,965 -4.9%
Limit Electricity Consumption 2,673 7.4% Limit Electricity Consumption 288,736 -1.6%
Limit Electricity Generation 2,484 -0.2% Limit Electricity Generation 284,537 -3.0%
CO2 Emissions
Scenario
Fuel Expenditures
Scenario
Electrity Generation
Scenario
Final Energy Consumption
Scenario
Scenario
Primary Energy
Scenario
Electricity Investment
Scenario
System Cost
Scenario
Power Plant Builds
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Results tables are exported & dynamically updated from VBE to the Analytics workbook where
presentation & report quality tables & graphs are prepared automatically
VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR
NDC Pathways Undertakings

8. VedaViz Analyst – CO2 by Sector
based on Demand&EERE
Similar to the DECC Global Calculator, the VedaViz Policy Portal allows TIMES model results to be
dynamically presented via the web – here:
• Low GDP growth reduces CO2 emission by about 15% while High GDP growth increase it by over 30%
• EE&RE Targets bring the High GDP growth emissions down near that of the Reference, while cutting
about 1/3rd of the Medium GDP Growth level
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VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR
NDC Pathways Undertakings

9. ETSAP Support for the PMR Effort
If PMR representative expresses (serious) interest in building up capacity to
use TIMES for preparation, updating & ratcheting up of NDC roadmaps how
might ETSAP take advantage of the opportunity to more widely disseminate
& promote the ETSAP Tools for this high-profile global initiative?
o Section of website dedicated to use of ETSAP Tools for NDC pathway support
o ETSAP Partners mentoring PMR experts
• “Twinning” by hosting a PMR expert
• How funded & how much funding (per PMR) would be needed?
o TIMES-Starter platform
• Employ the TIMES-Starter as a standard starting point for the national models
• If PMR wants to get going early in 2017 approach Ken about using ANSWER TIMES-
Starter (so support for only those users into 2018) or fast-track VEDA platform (based
on USEPA US9r/AT-Starter, rather than waiting for US9rT)?
• Fund the VEDA TIMES-Starter R&D proposal
• Provide a migration path from ANSWER-TIMES model to VEDA (& retrain experts)
o Reducing the cost of the ETSAP Tools for the PMR participants
• GAMS TIMES Application/Runtime with CBC solver starting modeling package
[countries can add CPLEX later once proven & embodied in their planning process, if
necessary]
• Tentative consideration being given by GAMS/Noblesoft/KanORS for creating a PMR
project license
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VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR
NDC Pathways Undertakings