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6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Tools for Assessment and Mapping
of Natural Hazard Risks
Michael Bründl and Linda Zaugg
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF
Davos, Switzerland
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Damage Events – Efficiency of Mitigation Measures
© Jäggli, Klosters
Flood Klosters 2005
Retention Basin realized after flood 2005
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Risk assessment
and evaluation of
the effectiveness
of mitigation
measures
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Risk assessment
and evaluation of
the effectiveness
of mitigation
measures
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Risk assessment
and evaluation of
the effectiveness
of mitigation
measures
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
EconoMe-Develop
• Benefit-Cost-Analysis (BCA) has become a recognized method
for determining the economic efficiency of investments and
mitigation measures for natural hazards.
• Swiss Federal Office for the Environment initiated the
development of EconoMe, an operational software for
prioritising mitigation measures with BCA.
• EconoMe-Develop is the research and development version of
EconoMe.
• Calculation factors and assumptions can be adapted to
specific risk situations making the tool suitable for assess-
ment of various natural hazards worldwide.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
EconoMe-Develop:
www.econome-develop.admin.ch
• The method, calculation factors, equations etc. are
available on the system.
• Available in German, English and French
User
Support
Choice for
language
Calculation factors,
equations, basics.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Import Export
• The workflow follows the risk concept for Natural Hazards.
• Interface for import and export of data via XML, e.g. import of
damage potential from GIS; export of risks to GIS.
EconoMe-Develop: Workflow
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
• definition of number
of scenarios
• definition of return
periods
• uncertainty of
calculation factors
• exposure situations
• number of intensity
classes
• mean, min und max of
damage susceptibility,
• and lethality values.
EconoMe-Develop: Step 3 Hazard Analysis
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
EconoMe-Develop: Step 6 and 7: Consequence analysis
• damage and risk to
each object
• evaluation of societal
and individual risk
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
EconoMe-Develop: Step 12: Benefit-Cost-Ratio
Calculation with uncertainty band
• Calculation of risk with
uncertainty band (min,
mean, max)
• Risk before measures and
with consideration of
measures are displayed
• Risk reduction of each
measure
• Benefit-Cost-Ratio of
measures
• BCR > 1,
economically viable
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
RAMMS::RISK
• RAMMS Software for modelling gravitational processes for
hazard mapping (http://ramms.slf.ch/ramms/)
– RAMMS::AVALANCHE
– RAMMS:DEBRIS FLOW
– RAMMS::ROCKFALL
• RAMMS::RISK was developed as additional module for
visualizing and interactive exploring natural hazard risk
• … is stand-alone and requires no GIS license
• … is not restricted to input from RAMMS
• … can handle point (e.g. buildings) and line objects (roads,
railways)
• RAMMS::RISK is work-in progress
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Input data for RAMMS::RISK
RAMMS Simulation
(ASCII-File)
Building data (CSV or SHP)
Damage susceptibility
Calculation and visualization of
societal and individual risk
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
RAMMS::RISK: Classification of object attributes and
results
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
RAMMS::RISK: Selective display of results
Show buildings,
where individual
risk >1 x 10-4
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Take home messages
• Risk assessment and evaluation of economic efficiency of
measures using BCA has become essential for decision-
making.
• EconoMe-Develop is a flexible tool for a risk-based
assessment of the effectiveness of mitigation measures.
• RAMMS::RISK allows for spatial visualization of natural hazard
risk and supports interactive risk exploring.
Contact: bruendl@slf.ch

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Tools for Assessment and Mapping of Natural Hazard Risks, Michael BRUENDL

  • 1. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Tools for Assessment and Mapping of Natural Hazard Risks Michael Bründl and Linda Zaugg WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF Davos, Switzerland
  • 2. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Damage Events – Efficiency of Mitigation Measures © Jäggli, Klosters Flood Klosters 2005 Retention Basin realized after flood 2005
  • 3. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risk assessment and evaluation of the effectiveness of mitigation measures
  • 4. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risk assessment and evaluation of the effectiveness of mitigation measures
  • 5. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risk assessment and evaluation of the effectiveness of mitigation measures
  • 6. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org EconoMe-Develop • Benefit-Cost-Analysis (BCA) has become a recognized method for determining the economic efficiency of investments and mitigation measures for natural hazards. • Swiss Federal Office for the Environment initiated the development of EconoMe, an operational software for prioritising mitigation measures with BCA. • EconoMe-Develop is the research and development version of EconoMe. • Calculation factors and assumptions can be adapted to specific risk situations making the tool suitable for assess- ment of various natural hazards worldwide.
  • 7. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org EconoMe-Develop: www.econome-develop.admin.ch • The method, calculation factors, equations etc. are available on the system. • Available in German, English and French User Support Choice for language Calculation factors, equations, basics.
  • 8. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Import Export • The workflow follows the risk concept for Natural Hazards. • Interface for import and export of data via XML, e.g. import of damage potential from GIS; export of risks to GIS. EconoMe-Develop: Workflow
  • 9. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org • definition of number of scenarios • definition of return periods • uncertainty of calculation factors • exposure situations • number of intensity classes • mean, min und max of damage susceptibility, • and lethality values. EconoMe-Develop: Step 3 Hazard Analysis
  • 10. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org EconoMe-Develop: Step 6 and 7: Consequence analysis • damage and risk to each object • evaluation of societal and individual risk
  • 11. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org EconoMe-Develop: Step 12: Benefit-Cost-Ratio Calculation with uncertainty band • Calculation of risk with uncertainty band (min, mean, max) • Risk before measures and with consideration of measures are displayed • Risk reduction of each measure • Benefit-Cost-Ratio of measures • BCR > 1, economically viable
  • 12. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org RAMMS::RISK • RAMMS Software for modelling gravitational processes for hazard mapping (http://ramms.slf.ch/ramms/) – RAMMS::AVALANCHE – RAMMS:DEBRIS FLOW – RAMMS::ROCKFALL • RAMMS::RISK was developed as additional module for visualizing and interactive exploring natural hazard risk • … is stand-alone and requires no GIS license • … is not restricted to input from RAMMS • … can handle point (e.g. buildings) and line objects (roads, railways) • RAMMS::RISK is work-in progress
  • 13. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Input data for RAMMS::RISK RAMMS Simulation (ASCII-File) Building data (CSV or SHP) Damage susceptibility Calculation and visualization of societal and individual risk
  • 14. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org RAMMS::RISK: Classification of object attributes and results
  • 15. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org RAMMS::RISK: Selective display of results Show buildings, where individual risk >1 x 10-4
  • 16. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Take home messages • Risk assessment and evaluation of economic efficiency of measures using BCA has become essential for decision- making. • EconoMe-Develop is a flexible tool for a risk-based assessment of the effectiveness of mitigation measures. • RAMMS::RISK allows for spatial visualization of natural hazard risk and supports interactive risk exploring. Contact: bruendl@slf.ch

Editor's Notes

  1. Good afternoon Ladies and Gentlemen, thank you for coming to my talk I also like to acknowledge the work of my co-author, who was heavily involved in the work I‘m going to present you today.
  2. During the last decade we observed several severe events in Alpine countries and worldwide, which caused billions of damage. The event with the highest damage during the last decade in Switzerland was the flood in August 2005 with damage of 2.9 billion Swiss Francs, which is about 2,7 billion Euro. After this event a flood protection programme was initialized and among other measures, this rentention basin was realized. Since 2008 each mitigation project, which requires subsidisation from the Federal Office for the environment has to be analysed with respect to its benefit-cost ratio.
  3. The basis for a benefit-cost-analysis is a risk-based assessment of the effectiveness of planned mitigation measures.  Explain risk analysis
  4. The calculated risks are compared with safety goals. If they are exceeded, measures have to be taken.
  5. The planned measures have to be evaluated regarding their effectiveness, which the ability to reduce the risk and costs of this measures. If measures reduce individual risk below a defined threshold and the BCR is above 1 and ecological and societal criteria are fulfilled, the project can be realized. In the following I‘d like to present two tools, which base on this concept.
  6. The Federal Office has developed the software tool EconoMe for this assessment. In addition, also the tool EconoMe-Develop was developed, which allows an adaptation of calculation parameters to a specific situation, which is not possible with the operational tool EconoMe, which is used as a decision-making tool for subsidisation. This makes the tool flexible enough, so that the tool can also be used for assessments worldwide.
  7. This slide shows the start page after the login. Several languages documentation User support
  8. Working steps, possibilities for import and export of hazard assessment Damage potential Exposure data Overlay of intensity maps and damage potential, i.e. consequence analysis This means that geographical data can be handled in a GIS and data can be exported and then imported for risk assessment in EconoMe-Develop. After the assessment, data can be exported from EconoMe-Develop and imported to a GIS for visualisation.
  9. The second tool i‘d like to present is RAMMS::RISK. So what is RAMMS? RAMMS stands for „rapid mass movements“ and denotes a software for modelling gravitational flows like snow avalanches, debris flows and rock falls. RAMMS::RISK was developed …
  10. So what are the ingredients, you need for an analysis with RAMMS::RISK RAMMS Simulation Data of damage potential, e.g. buildings, roads or railway Values for damage susceptibility
  11. Classification of damage potential or calculation results, e.g. here the total loss for this situation in three categories
  12. Here, selection of objects by certain criteria, e.g. Show me all buildings, for which the individual risk to persons is greater than 1 x 10-4