Theories of business cycle/Trade cycle
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This document outlines several theories of business cycles or trade cycles including climatic, psychological, innovation, monetary, over-investment, over-production, and Keynesian theories. It provides a brief overview of each theory, noting key aspects like how sunspots, optimism/pessimism of businessmen, money supply changes, innovations, interest rates, overproduction, and changes in aggregate demand and investment can influence economic expansions and contractions over time. The document also discusses some criticisms of each theory, such as unrealistic assumptions or other factors not considered.
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Business cycle: Meaning, types and phases
The document discusses the business cycle, which refers to the regular fluctuations in economic activity between periods of expansion and contraction. It describes the different types of business cycles including minor, major, very long period, and Kuznets cycles. The phases of the business cycle are also outlined, including expansion, peak, recession, and trough. Finally, the document analyzes various internal and external causes that can trigger business cycles such as consumer spending, investment, government policy, technology, and human psychology.
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Business cycles show periodic fluctuations in economic activity, measured by indicators like production, employment, and income. There are four phases of a business cycle: expansion, peak, contraction/recession, and trough. Expansions involve growth while contractions involve declines. Business cycles are caused by factors like changes in investment levels, consumer and business expectations, and technological innovations. Theories like Keynes' emphasize how fluctuations in investment can drive cycles, while real business cycle theory sees cycles arising from supply-side shocks. Cycles affect the economy through impacts on areas like growth, inflation, and unemployment. Policy tools can help control the amplitude of cycles.
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The document discusses the business cycle and its key stages and features. It defines the business cycle as the fluctuations in economic activity around its long-term trend, involving periods of growth and periods of decline. The main stages are identified as boom, recession, slump, and recovery. Other key points covered include the periodicity and self-reinforcing nature of business cycles as well as different theories that attempt to explain the causes of the cycle such as monetary, fiscal policy, innovation, and overproduction theories.
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Trade cycle
The trade cycle refers to the ups and downs in the level of economic activity which extends over a period of several years. If we examine the past statistical record of the business conditions, we will find that business has never run smoothly forever. There are many fluctuations in the period. Sometimes prosperity is followed by adversely. In Economics this tendency of the business activities, to fluctuate from prosperity to adversely is called business cycle.
Prof. Keynes says: " A trade cycle is composed of periods of bad trade characterized by falling prices and high unemployment percentages while a period of a good trade is characterized by rising prices and high employment, percentages."
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Rebecca Scott, Co-Founder and CEO at STREAT, presented at our seminar entitled ‘Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societal gains’ on Thursday 9 October 2014 in Melbourne.
Held in partnership with National Australia Bank as part of our Sustainability Leadership Series, the seminar brought together experts from various fields, discussing the challenges and opportunities associated with this innovative way to invest capital for social and/or environmental benefits as well as financial returns.
For more information about this seminar and the UNAA Sustainability Leadership Series please visit www.unaavictoria.org.au/education-advocacy/masterclasses/Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societa...
Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societa...United Nations Association of Australia (Vic)
Will Richardson, Chief Investment Officer at Impact Investment Group, presented at our seminar entitled ‘Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societal gains’ on Thursday 9 October 2014 in Melbourne.
Held in partnership with National Australia Bank as part of our Sustainability Leadership Series, the seminar brought together experts from various fields, discussing the challenges and opportunities associated with this innovative way to invest capital for social and/or environmental benefits as well as financial returns.
For more information about this seminar and the UNAA Sustainability Leadership Series please visit www.unaavictoria.org.au/education-advocacy/masterclasses/Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societa...
Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societa...United Nations Association of Australia (Vic)
John McLeod, former Principal and Executive Director of Goldman Sachs JBWere, author and independent consultant and researcher for the Philanthropic Services team at JBWere, facilitated our seminar entitled ‘Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societal gains’ on Thursday 9 October 2014 in Melbourne.
Held in partnership with National Australia Bank as part of our Sustainability Leadership Series, the seminar brought together experts from various fields, discussing the challenges and opportunities associated with this innovative way to invest capital for social and/or environmental benefits as well as financial returns.
For more information about this seminar and the UNAA Sustainability Leadership Series please visit www.unaavictoria.org.au/education-advocacy/masterclasses/Grand unified theory
The document discusses the history and development of theories attempting to unify the fundamental forces. It describes how electromagnetism was unified and the development of the electroweak theory. Efforts were made to include the strong nuclear force through grand unified theories, but requiring extremely high energies. String theory is now the leading approach to achieve a theory of everything by unifying gravity with other forces. Further experiments are still needed to fully test theories and achieve unification.
Creating Mongolia's First Social Impact Investment Fund
In GIFT's 28th YLP, 30 executives from 11 countries spent two weeks in Hong Kong and Mongolia, and crafted an initial blueprint for the first ever impact investment fund to be set up in Mongolia. Of the 30 participants, six came from Mongolia, holding senior level positions in organisations such as Oyu Tolgoi LLC, the Ministry of Finance, XacBank, Monet Capital and Inter Group. Other companies represented included Orix, NEC, DuPont, Bosch, DBS Bank, and BASF. The diversity in participant cultures, backgrounds, and work experience added dynamism and fresh perspectives in achieving project goals. The programme was conducted in close partnership with TenGer Financial Group, a regional family of companies leading the way in providing fair access to broad and inclusive financial services in Mongolia.
business cycle and fluctuation presentation
The document discusses the business cycle and unemployment. It describes the phases of the business cycle as trough, expansion, peak, contraction, recession and depression. It also discusses the different types of unemployment such as frictional, seasonal, structural and cyclical unemployment. Finally, it examines the costs of unemployment and how unemployment is measured.
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The theory of multiplier and acceleration principle chapter 3
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Demographic Transition Seminar: Professor Colette Browning, Monash University
Demographic Transition Seminar: Professor Colette Browning, Monash University
Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societa...
Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societa...
Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societ...
Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societ...
Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societa...
Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societa...
Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societa...
Impact Investing Seminar: Revolutionising capital markets for greater societa...
Creating Mongolia's First Social Impact Investment Fund
Creating Mongolia's First Social Impact Investment Fund
Similar to Theories of business cycle/Trade cycle
Chapter 1 Presentation.ppt
This document provides an overview of entrepreneurship and key related concepts. It discusses how entrepreneurs contribute to the economy by turning demand into supply, providing venture capital, jobs, and promoting societal changes. Entrepreneurship involves recognizing opportunities, testing them in the market, and gathering resources to start a business. The entrepreneurial start-up process has five components - the entrepreneur, opportunity, resources, organization, and management. Historical perspectives on entrepreneurship from the 1960s to 1990s are also presented.
marginal efficiency of capital
Marginal efficiency of capital (MEC) refers to the expected rate of profitability of new investment. MEC is calculated based on the amount of expected profit and the cost of the capital asset. It indicates the internal rate of return of an extra unit of capital. Investment decisions are influenced by comparing the MEC to interest rates - investments will be made when MEC is higher than interest rates. Companies use MEC to evaluate investments by comparing the discounted present value of expected income to the price of the capital asset. The document then discusses factors that affect MEC and provides a case study of how Nike used MEC to evaluate an investment decision.
Business cycle
The business cycle refers to the economy-wide fluctuations in production and economic activity over months or years that typically involve periods of growth (booms) and periods of decline or stagnation (recessions). Business cycles are usually measured by looking at the growth rate of GDP. There are various theories that attempt to explain the causes of business cycles, such as psychological theories related to optimism and pessimism, monetary policies related to money supply, and Keynesian theories related to investment levels. The stages of a business cycle are typically characterized as boom, depression/contraction, recession, and recovery/expansion.
Business cycle(1)
Business cycles refer to fluctuations in economic activity over months or years that occur around a long-term growth trend. They involve periods of rapid economic growth (booms) alternating with periods of stagnation or decline (recessions). Business cycles are measured by changes in real GDP growth. They progress through stages including boom, contraction/depression, recession, and recovery/expansion, and can last from 1-3 years for minor cycles up to 50-60 years for very long cycles. Various theories attempt to explain the causes of business cycles, such as psychological, innovation, underconsumption, overinvestment, monetary, and Keynesian theories related to investment efficiency.
Business cycles
This document discusses the business cycle and its phases of expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. It explains that the business cycle refers to the natural rise and fall of economic growth over time. The four phases and characteristics of each phase are defined. Causes of the business cycle are explored including changes in demand, investment, monetary and fiscal policy, as well as external factors like wars and natural disasters. Keynes' theory of the business cycle and how fluctuations in the marginal efficiency of capital can cause the cycle is also summarized. The roles of government and central banks in managing the business cycle through fiscal and monetary policy are outlined.
TRADE CYCLE
Trade cycles refer to the rise and fall in the level of economic activity over time. They typically involve four phases: depression, recovery, boom, and recession. Trade cycles are caused by factors such as changes in climate, technology, government policy, and business optimism/pessimism. The rise and fall can be amplified by monetary factors like changes in the money supply or demand for money. Governments try to control business cycles through expansionary fiscal and monetary policies during recessions to stimulate aggregate demand, and price/wage controls to stabilize the economy.
8business cycles-110505123053-phpapp01
This document discusses business cycles and theories of business cycles. It defines business cycles as alternating periods of economic prosperity and depression, characterized by fluctuations in production, prices, employment, and other economic indicators. Several theories of business cycles are presented, including monetary, psychological, overproduction, underconsumption, innovation, and accelerator theories. The multiplier-accelerator model is described as a way fluctuations can be generated through the interaction of investment, consumption, and aggregate demand. Methods to control business cycles discussed include monetary policy, fiscal policy, and automatic stabilizers.
Business cycle
The document discusses the business cycle and how it affects the overall economy. It explains that the business cycle consists of four phases - expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. During expansion, the economy grows as GDP increases, unemployment decreases, businesses hire more people and make profits. At the peak, growth stops and the economy enters a contraction phase, where businesses cut back and lay people off, unemployment rises, and GDP declines. The cycle bottoms out at the trough, then expansion begins again. Key factors like business investment, interest rates, consumer expectations, and external events influence the phases of the cycle. Understanding where the economy is in the cycle can help individuals and businesses make important financial decisions.
Business_Cycle (1).pptx
The document discusses the business cycle and how it affects the overall economy. It explains that the business cycle consists of periods of expansion and contraction that cause the economy and GDP to regularly grow and shrink. During expansions, the economy and GDP grow as unemployment decreases, wages rise, businesses profit and invest more. Eventually expansions peak and turn to contractions, where businesses cut back and lay people off, unemployment rises, and GDP declines. The economy bottoms out at the trough before beginning another expansion. Understanding where the economy is in the business cycle can help individuals and businesses plan accordingly.
Business_Cycle.ppt
The document discusses the business cycle and how it affects the overall economy. It explains that the business cycle consists of periods of expansion and contraction that cause the economy and GDP to regularly grow and shrink. During expansions, the economy and GDP grow as unemployment decreases, wages rise, businesses profit and invest more. Eventually expansions peak and turn to contractions, where businesses cut back and lay people off, unemployment rises, and GDP declines. The economy bottoms out at the trough before beginning another expansion. Understanding where the economy is in the business cycle can help individuals and businesses plan accordingly.
Business_Cycles.ppt
The document discusses the business cycle and how it affects the overall economy. It explains that the business cycle consists of periods of expansion and contraction that cause the economy and GDP to regularly grow and shrink. During expansions, the economy and GDP grow as unemployment decreases, wages rise, businesses profit and invest more. Eventually expansions peak and turn to contractions, where the opposite occurs - unemployment rises, wages fall, businesses cut back and lay people off. The economy fluctuates between these phases in a regular cycle. Understanding where the economy is in the cycle can help individuals and businesses plan financially.
Business_Cycles working fiscal measures .ppt
The document discusses the business cycle and how it affects the overall economy. It explains that the business cycle consists of periods of expansion and contraction that cause the economy and GDP to regularly grow and shrink. During expansions, the economy and GDP grow as unemployment decreases, wages rise, businesses profit and invest more. Eventually expansions peak and turn to contractions, where businesses cut back and lay off workers, unemployment rises, and GDP declines. The economy bottoms out at the trough before again entering an expansion phase, repeating the cycle. Understanding where the economy is in the business cycle can help individuals and businesses plan accordingly.
Business_Cycle.ppt
The document discusses the business cycle and how it affects the overall economy. It explains that the business cycle consists of periods of expansion and contraction that cause the economy and GDP to regularly grow and shrink. During expansions, the economy and GDP grow as unemployment decreases, wages rise, businesses profit and invest more. Eventually expansions peak and turn to contractions, where businesses cut back and lay people off, unemployment rises, and GDP declines. The economy bottoms out at the trough before again entering an expansion phase, repeating the cycle. Understanding where the economy is in the business cycle can help individuals and businesses plan accordingly.
The Investors View
How is strategy affected in times of superabundant capital? How are strategic decisions being taken when capital is not a scarce resource?
Vienna value investing meetup #2
The second presentation from Vienna Value Investing meetup, wee discussed value decomposition, how to estimate asset value and how to predict future earnings of a stock.
ITFT - Innovation
Innovation is the process of developing new ideas and putting them into practice in a way that adds value. It involves identifying opportunities, developing ideas, prototyping, marketing, and commercializing new products, services, or processes. Innovation is necessary for business survival and growth in today's rapidly changing global environment. Without continuous innovation, companies risk losing profits and market share to more innovative competitors. Innovation allows firms to increase revenues through new products and services, as well as manage costs by optimizing existing operations. It provides a constant flow of new ideas and solutions to address customer needs and problems faced by the business.
ROLE OF BUSINESS ECONOMIST
The document discusses the roles of business economists and how they assist with decision making. It defines economics and distinguishes it from managerial economics. Business economists help organizations make optimal decisions by analyzing external and internal factors, forecasting demand, and applying economic principles. They identify problems, potential solutions, and recommend the best alternative using quantitative techniques to maximize profits and achieve objectives.
ROLE OF BUSINESS ECONOMIST
The document discusses the roles of business economists and how they assist with decision making. It defines economics and distinguishes it from managerial economics. Business economists help organizations make optimal decisions by analyzing external and internal factors, forecasting demand, and applying economic principles. They identify problems, potential solutions, and recommend the best alternative using quantitative techniques to maximize profits and achieve objectives.
phases of economy
The document discusses the phases of the business cycle including expansion, peak, recession, trough, and recovery. It then summarizes several theories that attempt to explain the causes of business cycle fluctuations, including the pure monetary theory, monetary over-investment theory, Schumpeter's innovation theory, multiplier-accelerator interaction theory, and Hicksian theory. Each theory is outlined and briefly criticized for its assumptions and limitations in fully explaining real-world business cycles. The conclusion calls for finding solutions to control fluctuations in light of these theoretical explanations.
Trade cycle
The document defines a trade cycle as periods of good and bad trade characterized by rising/falling prices and low/high unemployment. It lists the key features of trade cycles like periodic waves in economic activity with different phases of prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery. Various theories of trade cycles are also discussed, including endogenous theories like innovations theory and psychological theory, and exogenous theories like weather theory. The four phases of business cycles - prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery - are explained in detail. Different methods to control business cycles are also mentioned, like monetary policy, fiscal policy, and automatic stabilizers.
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Theories of business cycle/Trade cycle
- 1. LEAD College of Management,Presentation by: Nelson Kuriakose
- 2. Theories of trade cycle/business cycle 1) Climatic or Sunspot theory 2) The psychological theory 3) Innovation theory 4) Monetary theory 5) Over-investment theory 6) Over-production theory 7) Keynes’ theory
- 3. Sunspot theory Offered by Mr . Jevan. Trade cycles are caused by sun spots. Sunspots appear on the face of the sun. Almost at regular intervals of 10.4 years.
- 4. SPOT APPEARS SUN EMITS LESS HEAT CROP YIELD WILL BE LOW INCOME OF FARMER FALLS LESS PURCHASING POWER
- 5. Drawback • Based on only agro based theory • Good or bad crop can only be one factor of depression or expansion but they cannot account for all the features • The trade cycle occur at regular intervals of 10.4 years, while length of the trade cycle is 7 to 8 years
- 6. The psychological theory Given by professor PIGOU Trade cycles are caused by the optimistic and pessimistic attitude of the businessman OPTIMISTIC Brisk businessman earn high profits and expands the investment and production Overestimate the future demand of goods and increase the production
- 7. Psychological theory (cont’d) PESSIMISTIC businessman puts less investment and less production Rate of employment and rate of profit decreases Supply exceeds the demand so price falls.
- 8. Drawbacks • Considers only psychological views of businessman • Ignore other factors
- 9. Monetary theory • Takes money supply into consideration • Deals with money expansion and contraction • Money contraction - demand falls, rate of interest increases- decreased borrowings • Money expansion – demand rises, rate of interest decreases- increased borrowings
- 10. Criticism • Trade cycle is not purely monetary phenomenon • It is world wide phenomenon
- 11. Innovation theory • Innovation can be of various types 1-new product 2-new market 3-niche market 4-new technology 5-new source of raw material
- 12. Innovation theory • Innovation leads to more production • Ultimately increase in aggregate demand • Further increase in income of business
- 13. Drawback of innovation theory The full employment assumption is unrealistic. Bank is not the only source of finance for every innovation in business. Many times the profits are ploughed back to finance innovations. Innovation cannot be the sole cause of business cycle.
- 14. Over investment theory • Natural rate of interest is determined at a point where savings(voluntary)= investment • if market ROI < natural ROI then, businessman demands more investment, capital, more prod., more income, more labour, more demand
- 15. Cont’d • If market ROI> natural ROI then reduction in capital demanded , less prod. , less labour , less income , less demand
- 16. Over prod. theory • If economic system is capitalism, all the entrepreneurs wants to produce goods which are profit making • Leads to high competition because of entry of new firms • Profit making possibility : high • Due to over production activity, initially everything increases
- 17. Cont’d Thereafter as a result firms starts withdrawing resulting in Less demand Less income Less production Less labour
- 18. Keynes theory 1)concept of marginal efficiency of capital(mec) MEC:- rate where price of capital=yield from capital Example: buying of a machinery- how much return will we get in the coming years 2)Says that depression & unemployment is there because there is decrease in the aggregative demand.
- 19. • Now aggregative demand can be increased: 1.investment 2.consumption and we know in short run consumption cant be increased….but so can investment So, by controlling the investment, depression & unemployment can be reduced in the short run. 3) Yield depends on the expectations (psychology):: yield is the only factor affecting MEC and yield is affected by the psychology of the entrepreneur….
- 21. Email: nelson@lead.ac.in LEAD College of Management, Palakkad