Presented by Nancy Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Mario Herrero, Shirley Tarawali, Susan MacMillan, and Delia Grace at the Farm Animal Integrated Research 2012 Conference, Washington DC, March 4–6, 2012

1. The production and consumption of
livestock products in developingfuture:
Production systems for the countries:
balancing trade-offs between food production,
efficiency, livelihoodsworld'senvironment
Issues facing the and the poor
Nancy Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Mario Herrero,
Shirley Tarawali, Susan MacMillan, Delia GraceP.K. Thornton
M. Herrero and
Farm Animal Integrated Research 2012 Conference
WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation
Washington DC, March 4–6, 2012st
21 September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi

2. Overview
Global poverty and undernutrition
Consumption and production of
livestock products:
– trends
– drivers
– future projections
Challenges ahead
Opportunities for the poor

3. Main messages
 The rising demand for livestock products in
developing countries presents significant
opportunities and threats
 Choices about how to manage the global
livestock sector have to be context specific.
 Institutional innovation as important as
technological innovation in charting the best
ways forward.

4. Poverty and
undernutrition

5. Changes in global poverty
indicators
 % of population living on less than $1.25/day
– 1990 - 41.7%
– 2005 - 25.2%
 Millions of people living on less than $1.25/day
– 1990 - 1,818
– 2005 - 1,374
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/

6. Percent of population living on
less than US$1.25/day - 1990
Dark red: >80
Red: 60-80
Orange: 40-60
Light orange: 20-40
Yellow: <20
Grey: no data
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/

7. Percent of population living on
less than US$1.25/day - 2000
Dark red: >80
Red: 60-80
Orange: 40-60
Light orange: 20-40
Yellow: <20
Grey: no data
7
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/

8. Percent of population living on
less than US$1.25/day - 2010
Dark red: >80
Red: 60-80
Orange: 40-60
Light orange: 20-40
Yellow: <20
Grey: no data
8
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/

9. FAO: SOFA2011

10. FAO: SOFA20011 10

11. Consumption and production
of livestock products in
developing countries
ILRI Spearheading a
New Way Forward

12. Consumption and production
of livestock products in
developing countries
Trends
ILRI Spearheading a
New Way Forward

13. FAO: SOFA2009

14. In 1980, 65% of production was in developed countries.
In 2007, 61% was in developing countries
FAO: SOFA 2009

15. Agricultural production by system
Cereals Milk
4% 7%
14%
13%
45%
59% 17%
35%
2% 4%
Beef Lamb
agro-pastoral
9% mixed extensive
28% 28% mixed intensive
15%
50% other
5% developed countries
19%
18%
7% 21%
Herrero et al. 2009

16. Growing trade in livestock commodities
FAO: SOFA 2009

17. Consumption and production
of livestock products in
developing countries
Drivers
ILRI Spearheading a
New Way Forward

18. Population growth by
region: 1750 - 2050

19. FAO: SOFA 2009

20. Urbanization
Source: Economist

21. Consumption and production
of livestock products in
developing countries
Future projections
ILRI Spearheading a
New Way Forward

22. Projected global consumption in 2050
Annual per capita Total
consumption consumption
Year Meat Milk Meat Milk
(kg) (kg) (Mt) (Mt)
Developing 2002 28 44 137 222
2050 44 78 326 585
Developed 2002 78 202 102 265
2050 94 216 126 295
Source: Rosegrant et al 2009

23. Projected global consumption in 2050
Annual per capita Total
consumption consumption
Year Meat Milk Meat Milk
(kg) (kg) (Mt) (Mt)
Developing 2002 28 44 137 222
2050 44 78 326 585
Developed 2002 78 202 102 265
2050 94 216 126 295
Source: Rosegrant et al 2009

24. Projected global consumption in 2050
Annual per capita Total
consumption consumption
Year Meat Milk Meat Milk
(kg) (kg) (Mt) (Mt)
Developing 2002 28 44 137 222
2050 44 78 326 585
Developed 2002 78 202 102 265
2050 94 216 126 295
Source: Rosegrant et al 2009

25. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of
additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet
food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009)
Grains
1048 million tonnes
more to 2050
Livestock Human
430 million MT consumption
(Monogastrics mostly) 458 million MT
biofuels
160 million MT

26. Annual changes in Cereal Production
2000 - 2030
6
5
4
%
3
2
1
0
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Herrero et al 2009

27. Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030
8
7
6
5
%
4
3
2
1
0
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030
9
8
7
6
5
%
4
3
2
1
0
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

28. Challenges
ahead
28

29. Challenges
ahead
Disease
29

30. Livestock and human disease
 Animal source foods are the
biggest contributor to food-borne
disease
 Diseases transmitted from
livestock & by livestock products
kill more people each year than
HIV or malaria
 One new human disease emerges
every 2 months - 20% of these
from livestock (Jones et al., 2008) 15 key zoonotic diseases
reported on HealthMap (2006-
2011) (Grace et al., 2011)

31. Livestock and animal disease
 Animal disease can be the key constraint (ECF,
tryps, Newcastle disease)
– Remove it and animal populations double
 Increasingly animal disease impacts are outside
the livestock sector
 Early-stage intensification associated with
increased disease
– Most of current growth in animal production is in
early stage

32. Challenges
ahead
Environment
32

33. Use and impact of livestock production
on land, water, biodiversity
 Livestock production
generates many
negative externalities
 Significant
opportunities to
increase efficiency in
many systems—more
production with fewer
animals

34. Global greenhouse gas efficiency per
kilogram of animal protein produced
Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)

35. Effect of climate change on
livestock production
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
Courtesy of A. Jarvis

36. Challenges
ahead
Social issues
36

37. Emerging concerns in developing countries
Overconsumption
Animal welfare
Gender and
equity, especially in
the face of rapid
change
Conflict and transition
to non-agricultural
livelihoods 37

38. Opportunities
for the poor

39.  Livestock demand will
be met by a variety of
sectors and systems
 Currently a significant
role for smallholders
(30% of milk, 15-18% of
poultry)
 Highest potential in local
and regional markets in
developing countries

40. Strengthening livestock value chains
Inputs & Consumers
Production Processing Marketing
Services
 Enabling public policy and
institutions
 Access to input and output
markets
 Uptake of new improved
technology
 Public and private partnerships
 Attention to gender and equity

41. CGIAR Research Program 3.7:
More meat, milk and fish by and for the poor
SHEEP & GOATS
AQUACULTURE
PIGS
DAIRY
9 Target Value Chains

42. Managing risk and providing
environmental services in rangelands
 Largest land use system
 High levels of poverty
and food insecurity
 Managing risk through
livestock insurance
 Exploring feasibility of
environmental service
schemes around wildlife
conservation and/or
carbon sequestration
Potential for carbon
sequestration in rangelands
(Conant and Paustian 2002)

43. Some conclusions
 The rising demand for livestock foods in poor
countries presents
– Opportunities
• Pathway out of poverty and malnutrition
• Less vulnerability in drylands
• Sustainable mixed systems
– Threats
• Environmental degradation at local and global
scales
• Greater risk of disease and poor health
• Greater risk of conflict and inequity

44.  Key issues for decision makers
– appreciation of the vast divide in livestock
production between rich and poor countries
– intimate understanding of the specific local context
for specific livestock value chains
– reliable evidence-based assessments of the hard
trade-offs involved in adopting any given approach
to livestock development
 Institutional innovations as important as
technological/biological innovations in
charting the best ways forward
– Organization within the sector
– Managing trade offs at multiple scales