The livestock sector is rapidly evolving, driven by increasing demand for animal products, which presents both opportunities and challenges related to food security, environmental impact, and social dynamics. An international assessment, initiated in 2006 and published in 2010, explores these changes, highlighting the significance of population growth, urbanization, and income levels on consumption patterns, while also addressing the negative consequences of livestock production including resource degradation and health risks. To effectively respond to the sector's diverse challenges, integrated policies and innovative strategies are essential, focused on sustainability and equitable growth opportunities for smallholders.

2. Overview of key issues, drivers,
consequences, responses and way forward
Fritz Schneider
Swiss College of Agriculture (SHL)
Presentation at IDAG Meeting,
4-5 May, 2010, IFAD, Rome

3. Issue
• The livestock sector is changing rapidly
• Sector is central to global food security, poverty
reduction and livelihood support
• A multitude of opportunities and challenges exist
• Sector is faced with diverse pressures and
demands (population, urbanization, climate
change, environmental, social and health
concerns...)
• Diverse, competing and contrasting objectives
and trade-offs

4. Livestock in a Changing Landscape (LCL)
• An international scientific assessment of the global livestock sector
• Started March 2006; published and launched March 2010
• Provides an in-depth assessment of:
– current global and regional status and trends examining the factors
shaping changes in the sector
– consequences of livestock production: environmental, social and health
– current stakeholder responses to changing demand and challenges and
potential policy and management responses
• With goal of:
– achieving comprehensive and integrated view of the global livestock
sector, its drivers, consequences and responses to issues of concern
• Integrated analysis: analyzing how changes in the sector relate to
changes in environmental, health and social contexts
• Multi-scale assessment: global to local levels

5. LCL focuses on:
• Drivers of change
– change in global agricultural and livestock systems
– trends in production, consumption and trade
– structural change in the sector
– geographical dimension of structural change
• Consequences • Volume I: Global
– environment perspective
– social • Volume 2: Regional
– health perspective and
experiences
• Responses to demands and challenges
– environmental issues
– social issues
– human nutrition issues
– emerging diseases

6. Per capita consumption of major food items:
developing countries

7. Trends in Consumption, Production and Trade in
Livestock and Livestock Products
• The share of all animal products in human diets continues to
increase in the developing world
• Income growth is a major driver of increasing consumption
• Urbanisation of populations also drives growth in consumption
• The population growth and population structure drives the
total livestock product consumption
• Global animal production is shifting from industrial to
developing regions

8. Per capita meat consumption (kg/year)
The share of all
animal products in
human diets
continues to increase
in the developing
world
Source: FAO data reported in Delgado et al., 1999.

9. Total meat consumption (million mt)
The share of all
animal products in
human diets
continues to increase
in the developing
world
Source: FAO data reported in Delgado et al., 1999.

10. Consumption levels 2008
Kg/caputa
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
g
ed
a
A
in
si
S
op
op
A
S
el
el
ev
ev
D
D
Milk Meat
Source FAOSTAT 2009

11. Income growth and demand for meat 2005
Income growth is
a major driver of
increasing
consumption
Source FAO, SOFA, 2009

12. Demand driver income growth, per capita GDP
growth rates at market prices
7
6
5
4
1990-2000
3
2000-30
2 2030-50
1
0
-1
SS Africa NENA LAC S Asia E Asia
Source: WB 2005

13. Urbanisation
6 000 000 000
5 000 000 000
Urbanisation of
urban populations
4 000 000 000 also drives
growth in
3 000 000 000 rural consumption
2 000 000 000
1 000 000 000
0
50
60
70
80
90
00
10
20
30
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
Source UN 2003

14. Population growth
8000
Population growth and
7000 population structure
6000 drives the total livestock
product consumption
5000
4000 Developing
Developed
3000
2000
1000
0
1970 2000 2030 2050
Source UN 2003

15. Trends : Regional meat production
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2015 2030 2050
Developing Developed
Source LLS 2006

16. Global meat production
1100
Poultry Pig Cattle Sheep and Goat
1000
900
800
700
Index: 1961=100
600
500
400
300
200
100
1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005

17. Production of livestock products by developing
region
Annual growth rates (1980-2007)
Meat Milk Eggs
10
9
8
A n n u a l g ro w th ra te (% )
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
East & Latin America South Asia Near East and Sub-Saharan Developing
Southeast Asia and the North Africa Africa countries
Caribbean

18. Global trade in livestock products
Product Global exports Annual growth
million metric tonnes rate
(%)
1980 2006 1980-2006
Meat 9.6 32.1 4.8
Bovine 4.3 9.2 3.0
Pig meat 2.6 10.4 5.5
Poultry meat 1.5 11.1 8.0
Ovine 0.8 1.1 1.2
Dairy products 42.8 90.2 2.9
Eggs 0.8 1.5 2.4

19. Net meat exports from developed
and developing countries
Developed Developing Least Developed Countries
4
3
2
Million tonnes
1
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-1
-2
-3

20. Net milk exports from developed and
developing countries
Developed Developing Least Developed Countries
40
30
20
Million tonnes
10
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-10
-20
-30

21. Drivers of change: Key messages
• The livestock sector is changing rapidly in
response to increasing demand
• In responding to demand, the sector has become
a major source of negative externalities
• Concurrently, the sector is increasingly faced
with new challenges such as climate change,
resource scarcity and related competition,
consumer awareness, etc.
• The unparalleled growth in the last decades has
implications at the environmental, social and
health level

22. Consequences: Environment
The livestock sector is ...
• major user of natural resources
– land: 1/3 of arable land; 80% of agricultural land
– water: 20% (~11 900 Km3) of all green water flows for feed
production
• major contributor to GHG emissions (18% of total global
anthropogenic emissions) and nutrient loss (N, P)
• major driver of natural resource degradation
– NR pollution
– biodiversity loss: trampling, over-grazing, deforestation, over-
fishing
– land degradation

23. Consequences: environment (2)
Impacts of production systems
• Intensive systems: characterized
by clustering of production, trend
towards landless highly
specialized farms
– disruption of nutrient cycle and
nutrient imbalances; ecosystem
pollution, nutrient depletion,
emissions to air
• Extensive systems: high
Estimated distribution of interaction with natural resources
industrialized produced pig – impacts on land and soil, water,
carbon sequestration, biodiversity
populations

24. Consequences: Human health impacts
Human nutrition Production system impacts
• Benefits: an important source Intensive systems
of protein, energy and • Antimicrobial resistance:
micronutrients esp. in protein antibiotics, heavy metals
deficient regions • Emergence and reemergence
• Risks: Excessive meat of zoonoses
consumption is not equated • Occupational risks: respiratory
with optimal health – risks problems
associated with over- Extensive systems
consumption include CVDs,
obesity, cancer, type 2 • Disease transmission between
animals, wildlife and people
diabetes

25. Consequences: Social Implications
• Social systems are being altered with both
positive and negative implications
• Some poor producers have benefited from rapid
livestock sector growth
• Many smallholders have been marginalized and
excluded from participating in growing markets
– market barriers, high transaction costs, etc.
• Relocation of production; from rural to urban and
peri-urban areas
– reduced employment and income opportunities in
rural areas

26. Consequences: Key messages
• The impact of the livestock sector is not
only large but diverse
• Impacts have been both positive and
negative
• Integrated, innovative and tailored
strategies and responses are required at
all levels to deal with the demands and
challenges

27. Responses
Despite the opportunities that the sector can benefit from, neglected problems
and new emerging needs and challenges continue to threaten the sector ...
• Environmental issues
– climate change
– resource degradation: land, air and water
– biodiversity erosion
• Social issues
– smallholder marginalization
• Human health and nutrition issues
– persistent undernutrition vs. emerging over
consumption
• Emerging and reemerging livestock diseases

28. Key barriers to effective response
Current responses have yielded some benefits but these have not kept
pace with mounting demands and emerging challenges
• Institutional response and policies have not kept pace with rapid
growth in production, consumption and trade, and associated
structural change
– Systemic market and policy failure as well as a lack of economic
incentives
– Inappropriate institutional and governance arrangements
– Underinvestment in development of sector, diffusion of technology,
human and institutional capacity, etc.
• Dichotomous nature of the livestock sector

29. Current Responses: Environmental issues
– regulatory frameworks (zoning regulations, emission
standards) targeting limited environmental mediums
(water, air and some extent biodiversity)
– livestock sector mostly excluded from climate change
agreements and policies
– technological advancements that have helped to
lessen the sector’s environmental impact and
resource demand have been largely driven by
efficiency considerations

30. Current Responses: Social issues
• Positive livestock sector development supported by
smallholder development however with few smallholders
benefiting from the drivers of change
– public and private schemes e.g. loans and credit schemes
– facilitation of collective actions e.g. cooperatives and contract
farming
• Exit from the sector of smallholders who are unable to
benefit from the changing landscape

31. Current Responses: Human and animal health
Human health and nutrition Emerging livestock diseases
• livestock sector development and • Measures to minimize risk of
product importation to meet emerging disease –
increasing demand vaccination, biosecurity,
• nutrition intervention and social restructuring of sector
safety net programs to address • Early warning and surveillance
nutrition-related diseases systems
• Regulatory frameworks and • Capacity building through
instruments – dietary guidelines, strengthening of human
standards, products labelling resource base
• Market-based responses: subsides,
taxation, etc.
• Communication and consumer
awareness

32. Responses: Key messages
Responses need to deliver better on the core development and sustainability
goals of the sector
• Put an end to “benign neglect” of the livestock sector.
• Recognize diversity and enable the livestock sector to deliver on multiple
objectives through integrated approaches:
– Development of institutional frameworks and policies
– Multi-sectoral horizontal collaboration
– Institutional mechanisms tailored to reflect diverse challenges and diversity within
sector
• Investment in, and diffusion of, technology will be key to managing future
challenges and demands
• Correct market distortions and policy failure

33. Regional perspectives and experiences:
Objectives
• Provides regional overviews and draw
experience from specific contexts.
• Describes how drivers and consequences of
livestock sector change play out in specific
geographical areas and shape the sector’s
transformations.
• Explores in greater detail some of the specific
environmental and social issues analyzed in
Volume 1.
• Focuses on the responses to change.

34. Regional perspectives and experiences
• Presents 7 regional case studies and a private sector
perspective (Nestlé)
India USA and Denmark
systems at
evolving post-livestock Development
onset of systems in
livestock revolution continuum
livestock rapid growth
systems
revolution
traditional livestock systems:
West and East Africa Brazil and China

35. Regional perspectives: Cross-
Cutting Observations
• The livestock revolution
– observed in most regions, at various scales and for some features
– not universal
– potential for both positive and negative social and environmental
consequences
– key role played by the private sector
• Competition for land
– Africa, Europe, China, Latin America
– contexts where livestock production is market oriented and
competes with other land users
– contexts where livestock uses marginal lands

36. Regional perspectives: Cross-Cutting
Observations (ii)
• Generally unsatisfactory responses ...
– often absent or ineffective
– lack of awareness among policy makers
– shortcomings in policy design and rampant lack of enforcement
– environment, social and public health
• ... but some success stories
– Costa Rica, Denmark, Horn of Africa, China

37. Regional perspectives: Cross-
Cutting Observations (iii)
• Policy lessons
– designing and implementing policies is a continuous trial and
error effort
– requires resources, strong analytical skills, continuity in the
policy making effort, and ultimately strong institutions
– awareness and willingness to bear the costs of action develop
slowly
– need to combine measures into balanced and enforceable policy
mixes
– need to phase and target adequately

38. Regional perspectives: Key messages
• The livestock landscape depicted in this volume is one of
complexity, where livestock interact with a variety of natural
resources, social issues, and development objectives.
• It is also one of superimposed patterns, where farming techniques
and management systems of different standards coexist, and where
local endogenous development processes are increasingly
influenced by the intrusion of international trade.
• Calls for tailored responses, progressive policy development
processes relying on multidisciplinary analysis, and the need to
carefully balance development objectives when guiding the
livestock sector.

39. The Way Forward 1
Build a Multi Donor Livestock Consortium which will
capitalize on the lessons learned from :
• LEAD
• Livestock‘s Long Shadow
• PPLPI
• Lifestock in a Changing Landscape
• SOFA 2009 (Lifestock in a Balance)
• Other recent research results and publications
• Private sector experience

40. The Way Forward 2
Consortium should become a global agenda setttting
exercise, supported by the piloting oa a series of
• poverty
• health
• environment
interventions

41. The Way Forward 3
The Consortium should bring together
• Key Public
• Private
• Research
• other tertiary
actors

42. The Way Forward 4
The Consortium should bring together
• Key Public
• Private
• Research
• other tertiary
actors

43. The Way Forward 5
First steps:
• FAO, WB, Switzerland, Netherlands are developing
and discussing a concept note for the Consortium
and the activities mentioned above.
Possible first actions:
• Side event at COAG meeting in June, lead by NL
• Possible broad based consultation as side event of
regional consultation on SOFA, planned for
September 2010 in China