This document discusses different perspectives on the concept of power in international relations. It begins by defining power as a state's ability to influence or control other states. It then outlines two main traditions for analyzing power: the national power approach, which equates power with material resources, and the relational power approach, which sees power as the ability to influence another's behavior. The document also discusses various theorists' perspectives on power, including Joseph Nye's concepts of hard, soft, and smart power, and rules for analyzing power put forth by William Wohlforth.
Relations among states take place in the absence of a world government. For realists, this means that the international system is anarchical. International relations are best understood by focusing on the distribution of power among states. Despite their formal legal equality, the uneven distribution of power means that the arena of international relations is a form of ‘power politics’. Power is hard to measure; its distribution among states changes over time and there is no consensus among states about how it should be distributed. International relations is therefore a realm of necessity (states must seek power to survive in a competitive environment) and continuity over time. When realists contemplate change in the international system, they focus on changes in the balance of power among states, and tend to discount the possibility of fundamental change in the dynamics of the system itself.
The following key thinkers all subscribe to these basic assumptions in their explorations of the following questions:
(1) What are the main sources of stability and instability in the international system?
(2) What is the actual and preferred balance of power among states?
(3) How should the great powers behave toward one another and toward weaker states?
(4) What are the sources and dynamics of contemporary changes in the balance of power?
Despite some shared assumptions about the nature of international relations, realists are not all of one voice in answering these questions, and it would be wrong to believe that shared assumptions lead to similar conclusions among them. In fact, there is sharp disagreement over the relative merits of particular balances of power (unipolarity, bipolarity and multipolarity). There is also much debate over the causal relationship between states and the international pressures upon them, and the relative importance of different kinds of power in contemporary international relations.
Relations among states take place in the absence of a world government. For realists, this means that the international system is anarchical. International relations are best understood by focusing on the distribution of power among states. Despite their formal legal equality, the uneven distribution of power means that the arena of international relations is a form of ‘power politics’. Power is hard to measure; its distribution among states changes over time and there is no consensus among states about how it should be distributed. International relations is therefore a realm of necessity (states must seek power to survive in a competitive environment) and continuity over time. When realists contemplate change in the international system, they focus on changes in the balance of power among states, and tend to discount the possibility of fundamental change in the dynamics of the system itself.
The following key thinkers all subscribe to these basic assumptions in their explorations of the following questions:
(1) What are the main sources of stability and instability in the international system?
(2) What is the actual and preferred balance of power among states?
(3) How should the great powers behave toward one another and toward weaker states?
(4) What are the sources and dynamics of contemporary changes in the balance of power?
Despite some shared assumptions about the nature of international relations, realists are not all of one voice in answering these questions, and it would be wrong to believe that shared assumptions lead to similar conclusions among them. In fact, there is sharp disagreement over the relative merits of particular balances of power (unipolarity, bipolarity and multipolarity). There is also much debate over the causal relationship between states and the international pressures upon them, and the relative importance of different kinds of power in contemporary international relations.
The presentation is on neoliberalism in international relations. The emergence of neoliberalism and convergence and difference of neoliberalism and structural realism as well as barriers to international cooperation is presented.
This Presentation is about the introduction of International Relation, the subject matter of IR, It's historical and institutional evolution and nature of IR.
This presentation is made by Samin VossoughiRad. American University for Humanities- Tbilisi campus
The security Dilemma is the them of the presentation and it has been explained exactly why states goes to war
The presentation is on neoliberalism in international relations. The emergence of neoliberalism and convergence and difference of neoliberalism and structural realism as well as barriers to international cooperation is presented.
This Presentation is about the introduction of International Relation, the subject matter of IR, It's historical and institutional evolution and nature of IR.
This presentation is made by Samin VossoughiRad. American University for Humanities- Tbilisi campus
The security Dilemma is the them of the presentation and it has been explained exactly why states goes to war
Soft power: A conceptual appraisal of the power of attractionFidel525104
This lecture covers discussion surrounding the concept of power, the place of soft power within broader discussions about power, and how soft power is operationalized.
Discuss at least three elements of power and specific strategies to .pdfarcotstarsports
Discuss at least three elements of power and specific strategies to maintain power and prevent
disorder in international systems. What are the most pressing challenges in maintaining a status
as a great power?
Solution
POWERis generally understood as the ability to get others individuals, groups, or nations to
behave in ways that they would ordinarily try to avoid. Power capabilities are usually determined
by economic strength, military strength, and political effectiveness.
ELEMENTS OF POWER :Elements of power include a country’s geographic area and location,
its population, and its natural resources. Other elements of power are intelligence capabilities, the
quality of national leadership, the level of educational and technological achievement, the
openness of the political system, the character of the people, transportation and communication
capabilities, ideology, and the appeal of a country’s culture ,generally referred to as soft power.
Economic power is often seen as the foundation of military and political power. It is measured
in terms of the gross national product (GNP) or the gross domestic product (GDP). The GNP
measures the total market value of all goods and services produced by resources supplied by the
residents and businesses of a particular country, regardless of where those residents and
businesses are located. The GDP measures the total market value of all goods and services
produced within a country. Military power is often the most visible and impressive manifestation
of national power
An important component of power is leadership. Leadership is the ability to persuade others to
behave in certain ways, to shape their interests, and to influence their thinking. Leadership
implies a capability to get others to cooperate to achieve particular objectives.
SPECIFIC STRATEGIES TO MAINTAIN POWER AND PREVENT DISORDER IN
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMS:
Democratic enlargement is a prominent strategy in this effort. Potential challengers are
restrained when they internalize the values, beliefs, and norms articulated by the dominant
power. The United States, for example, has emphasized spreading democracy. But the
dissemination of values and beliefs by great powers does not guarantee indefinite control, a
reality that Britain had to face as India and other colonies demanded for themselves the rights
enjoyed by people in Britain, including the right to self-government.
Another strategy used to prevent rising powers from creating disorder in the international
system is offshore balancing. Following Napoleon’s final defeat in 1815, European powers
created the Concert of Europe to maintain stability by preserving a relatively equal distribution
of power among them. The main goal was to prevent one country from gaining so much power
that it would dominate the others. Balancing which basically means opposing the stronger or
more threatening side in a conflict can be achieved through efforts by individual states to
strengthen themselves preserve th.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/crash/etc/cron.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8LxORztUWY
Use your lecture notes as the basis for your South Korean Culture Analysis (4-5 pages)
· You are encouraged to use multiple critical theories, critiques, and connections when analyzing different parts and aspects of the exportation of the South Korean Culture
Must have 5+ sources from the STU online library, use 3rd person active voice, MLA format, 12 pt, double spaced, clear discussion/arguments, smooth transitions, sources cited within the essay, a works cited page (which does not count towards your written pages), and student must analyze various (more than 3) parts in order to complete your analysis and conclusion for your discussions/arguments.
– 87 –
ThE ROLE OF sOFT POWER
IN DEFINING ThE IMaGE OF ThE REPUbLIC OF KOREa 1
Lucie Šarmanová
Abstract: This article discusses the concept of soft power as applied to the case of the
Republic of Korea. South Korea, defined as a middle power, strives to make itself visible
in the international milieu by focusing on soft power and multilateral cooperation
with other countries. One of the tools for such policies is the Korean wave (or hallyu)
which refers to the increased export of Korean cultural products (mainly popular mu-
sic, dramas and films) to the rest of Asia and to the world. Through hallyu, an image
of a modern and cool Korea is built which attracts foreign tourists and students, and
helps the branding of the nation as well as Korean products. The author introduces the
various strategies, channels, institutions and impacts of Korean recent nation-branding
policies and their soft power implications.
Keywords: soft power, middle power, Hallyu, Republic of Korea
Introduction
Soft power is one of the commonly used terms in international relations these days.
In the case of the Republic of Korea, with the compliance with of one of the coun-
try’s slogans “Dynamic Korea”, awareness of Korean culture is no longer a regional
phenomenon, having spread to different countries. It is also gaining visibility in
Europe thanks to its unique character, as well as being an area of interest among
professors and academics across the world. Therefore, it is ever more important to
discuss it and with the growing influence of Korean economics in the world and also
understand the strategies, that are generated in the cultural field, and their goals.
The goal of this paper is to find out the role of soft power in shaping the image
of the country in the international milieu. Therefore, it is necessary to first introduce
the topic of soft power, discuss its characteristics and related terms, such as public
diplomacy, branding, or smart power. The following part introduces specifics of
the Korean way to globalize its popular culture and the position of the country in
the international community. South Korea is defined as a middle power; therefore,
middle powers concept ...
Pinning down Power in Ukraine Crisis: West versus RussiaBright Mhango
In February 2014, the people of Ukraine managed to topple their government by way of prolonged protest which was in part a call for the Eastern European nation to move closer to Europe and away from Russia.
The deposed Russian-backed President of Ukraine Victor Yanukovych sparked the wrath of the Ukrainians by refusing to sign a ‘trade agreement’ that would have brought Ukraine closer to the EU. Instead he preferred closer ties with Russia which is sort of creating its own ‘EU’ called the Customs Union.
This paper posits that Ukraine has been a battleground for power both between the West and Russia (external power) and that of the state versus the citizens (Internal).
The paper will try to lay bare the various power struggles that were and are at play in the Ukrainian crisis and conclude that with the West looking like having won, the power play has only begun as Russia will not allow a nation so close to it and vital to its prestige get aligned with the West, its arch-enemy.
Before the Ukraine case can be tackled, it is essential to discuss the notion of power as it occurs in the discipline of International Relations. It will also feature a summary of two prescribed course readings on Power.
Why is war so central to the academic study of International Politics?FRANCISCO RUIZ
The human being, as a social animal has always been in the middle of a behaviorist crossroad. Cooperation and conflict have always been the two main options humans have had when socializing with other individuals. In the V century B.C., Thucydides had already studied conflict among individuals in its most extended and destructive form writing about the Peloponnesian war between Sparta and Athens. In the modern age, from Thomas Hobbes to Hans Morgenthau, we can see that war and its causes have been and continue to be one of the most important issues for the social sciences academia (Baldwin: 1979, p. 161). But, why war? Destruction, violence or competition seem to captivate the human being the same way fire does. Fire is the singularity of a chemical reaction that is only produced under certain exceptional conditions in nature. It needs fuel, a means to propagate and detonating. Fire has certain similarities with war. It is exceptional1, but because of its magnitude and power to transform the environment, its capacity attract the humans being’s attention is practically inevitable and even more so today, with the dramatic increase of the destructive ability of weapons.
Cerdas Media; jangan mau terhanyut oleh hoaxrumahbianglala
Materi ini saya berikan dalam beberapa seminar tentang media litteracy. Hoax sangat berbahaya sehingga setiap orang perlu waspada dan bijaksana menghadapinya.
Ingin menyampaikan ide pada publik? Ingin membentuk personal branding? Bahkan, ingin mencatatkan diri dalam sejarah?
Ayo menulis buku.
Saya siap membimbing Anda sampai jadi buku.
This article is about news;
what is news,
what is news value,
how journalist get information,
how to write news, etc.
In Bahasa Indonesia
by Teguh Wahyu Utomo
It is not my original idea, and just a modification. But I wanna share for people who speak in Bahasa Indonesia. Sekadar tes otak untuk mengetahui dominasi kiri atau dominasi kanan. By, Teguh Wahyu Utomo.
[Note: This is a partial preview. To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
Leading companies such as Nike, Toyota, and Siemens are prioritizing sustainable innovation in their business models, setting an example for others to follow. In this Sustainability training presentation, you will learn key concepts, principles, and practices of sustainability applicable across industries. This training aims to create awareness and educate employees, senior executives, consultants, and other key stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and supply chain partners, on the importance and implementation of sustainability.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Develop a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles and concepts that form the foundation of sustainability within corporate environments.
2. Explore the sustainability implementation model, focusing on effective measures and reporting strategies to track and communicate sustainability efforts.
3. Identify and define best practices and critical success factors essential for achieving sustainability goals within organizations.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction and Key Concepts of Sustainability
2. Principles and Practices of Sustainability
3. Measures and Reporting in Sustainability
4. Sustainability Implementation & Best Practices
To download the complete presentation, visit: https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
As a business owner in Delaware, staying on top of your tax obligations is paramount, especially with the annual deadline for Delaware Franchise Tax looming on March 1. One such obligation is the annual Delaware Franchise Tax, which serves as a crucial requirement for maintaining your company’s legal standing within the state. While the prospect of handling tax matters may seem daunting, rest assured that the process can be straightforward with the right guidance. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll walk you through the steps of filing your Delaware Franchise Tax and provide insights to help you navigate the process effectively.
Attending a job Interview for B1 and B2 Englsih learnersErika906060
It is a sample of an interview for a business english class for pre-intermediate and intermediate english students with emphasis on the speking ability.
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Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfKaiNexus
Enterprise excellence and inclusive excellence are closely linked, and real-world challenges have shown that both are essential to the success of any organization. To achieve enterprise excellence, organizations must focus on improving their operations and processes while creating an inclusive environment that engages everyone. In this interactive session, the facilitator will highlight commonly established business practices and how they limit our ability to engage everyone every day. More importantly, though, participants will likely gain increased awareness of what we can do differently to maximize enterprise excellence through deliberate inclusion.
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What are the main advantages of using HR recruiter services.pdfHumanResourceDimensi1
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Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxCynthia Clay
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"𝑩𝑬𝑮𝑼𝑵 𝑾𝑰𝑻𝑯 𝑻𝑱 𝑰𝑺 𝑯𝑨𝑳𝑭 𝑫𝑶𝑵𝑬"
𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 (𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬) is a professional event agency that includes experts in the event-organizing market in Vietnam, Korea, and ASEAN countries. We provide unlimited types of events from Music concerts, Fan meetings, and Culture festivals to Corporate events, Internal company events, Golf tournaments, MICE events, and Exhibitions.
𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 provides unlimited package services including such as Event organizing, Event planning, Event production, Manpower, PR marketing, Design 2D/3D, VIP protocols, Interpreter agency, etc.
Sports events - Golf competitions/billiards competitions/company sports events: dynamic and challenging
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2. Definition of Power
Power is an of the essentailly contested
concepts in tne study of international relations
(Evans, Newnham, The Penguin Dictionary of
International Relations)
―The concept of Power is one of the most
troublesome in the field of international politics‖
(Robert Gilpin)
Power, like a host of other important concepts in
IR, is an essentially contested concept – it
means quite different things to different people
(Brian C. Schmidt)
At its simplest, power in interstate relations may
be defined as a state’s ability to control, or at
least influence, other states or the outcome of
events. (Key Concepts of IR)
3. dimensions of Power
The internal dimension corresponds to the
dictionary definition of power as a capacity
for action. A state is powerful to the extent
that it is insulated from outside influence or
coercion in the formulation and
implementation of policy. A common
synonym for the internal dimension of
power is autonomy.
4. The external dimension corresponds to the
dictionary definition of power as a capacity
to control the behaviour of others; to
enforce compliance. Such influence need
not be actively exercised; it need only be
acknowledged by others, implicitly or
explicitly, to be effective. It also need not
be exercised with conscious intent; the
behaviour of others can be influenced
simply as a by-product of powerful acts.
dimensions of Power
5. distinction of Power
Structural power confers the power to
decide how things shall be done, the
power to shape frameworks within which
states relate to one another, relate to
people, or relate to corporate enterprises.
6. Relative power is more, or less, if one
party is also determining the surrounding
structure of the relationship. Four separate
but related structures of power in
international relations:
• the knowledge structure refers to the power to influence
the ideas of others;
• the financial structure refers to the power to restrict or
facilitate their access to credit;
• the security structure shapes their prospects for security;
• the production structure affects their chances of a better
life as producers and as consumers.
distinction of Power
7. The first is that the concept of power is primitive in the specific
sense that its meaning cannot be elucidated by reference to
other notions whose meaning is less controversial than is
own. (―Truth‖ is another such primitive concept)…
The second reason is that the concept of power is essentially
contested… in other words, it cannot be disconnected from
what we commonly call the ―value assumptions‖ of the person
making the judgment.
Third, the contestedness of power – the fact that what counts
as power and being powerful is controversial matters. For, as
Stefano Guzzini argues, it has performative role in our
discourse and, more particularly, our political discourse: how
we conceive of power makes a difference to how we think and
act in general and more particularly in political context.
Definition of Power
―i want to begin by suggesting three reasons for
both the trouble and controversy. (Steven Lukes)
8. David Baldwin describes the two
dominant traditions of power analysis in
International Relations: in terms of
elements of national power approach
which depicts power as resources and the
relational power approach, which depicts
power as an actual or potential
relationship.
Tradition of Power
9. National power approach
Proponents of the elements-of-national power
approach equate power with possession of
specific resources.
All of the important resources that a state
possesses are typically combined in some
fashion to determine its overall aggregate
power. The resources that are most often used
as an indicator of national power include the
level of military expenditure, gross domestic
product, size of the armed forces, size of the
territory and population.
10. Relational power approach
This approach was championed by behavioral – oriented
political scientists during the 1950s and 1960s.
According to Robert Dahl, who was an influential
advocate of the relational conception of power, ―A has
power over B to the extent that he can get B to do
something that B would not otherwise do‖.
Fundamental to the relational conception of power is the
ability to demonstrate a change in outcomes.
Power as a set of material resources id deemed to be
less important than the actual ability of Actor A to change
the behavior of actor B.
11. Rather than power being a ―one size fits all‖
category, the relational approach disaggregates
power into a number of component parts in
order to demonstrate how it is exercised in
specific issue –areas. The dimension of power
typically include its scope (the objectives of an
attempt to gain influence over which issue), its
domain (the target of the influence attempt(, its
weight (the quantity of resources) and its costs
(opportunity costs if forgoing a relation).
13. Carr argued that power is indivisible, yet he
claimed that for purposes of discussion it could
be divided into three categories: military power,
economic power, and power over opinion.
Yet because of the ever-present possibility of
war breaking out, Carr argued that military
power was the most important form of power in
international politics…‖The supreme importance
of instrument lies in the fact that the ultima ratio
of power in international politics is war‖
15. ―International Politics, like all politics is a struggle
for power‖
―Whatever the ultimate aims of international
politics, power is always the immediate aim‖
When we speak of power we mean man’s
control over the minds and actions of other
men… this is a psychological relation between
those who exercise it and those who over whom
it is exercised.‖
16. Elements of Power
Tangibles include; Population, Territory,
Natural Resources and Industrial
Capacity, Agricultural capacity and Military
Strength and Mobility
Intangibles include; Leadership and
Personality, Bureaucratic Organization
Efficiency, Type of Government, Social
Cohesiveness, Reputation, Foreign
Support and DEPENDENCY
17. Like other classical realists, Morgenthau
equated power with the possession of both
material and non-material resources.
Morgenthau distinguished between two
types of elements that contributed to the
power of a nation: those that are stable
and those subject to a constant change.
18. The stable elements which are largely of a
quantitative nature, included geography, natural
resources (food and raw materials), industrial
capacity, military preparedness and population.
Morgenthau identified four qualitative, non-
material factors that have a bearing on a
national power: national character, national
morale, the quality of government and the
quality of a nation’s diplomacy.
19. Morgenthau signaled out the quality of
diplomacy as the most important factor
contributing to the power of a nation.
According to Morgenthau, ―the conduct of
a nation’s foreign affairs by its diplomats is
for national power in peace what military
strategy and tactics by its military leaders
are for national power in war‖
21. Hard and Soft Power
Power is the ability to influence the behavior of others to
get a desired outcome. Historically, power has been
measured by such criteria as population size and
territory, natural resources, economic strength, military
force, and social stability.
Hard power enables countries to wield carrots and
sticks to get what they want. The Pentagon’s budget for
FY2008 is more than $750 billion and growing, many
times more than the nearest competitor. The United
States has the world’s largest economy, and more than a
third of the top 500 global companies are American.
There is no other global power, and yet American hard
power does not always translate into influence.
22. Trends such as these have made power less tangible and
coercion less effective. Machiavelli said it was safer to be
feared than to be loved. Today, in the global information age,
it is better to be both.
Soft power is the ability to attract people to our side without
coercion. Legitimacy is central to soft power. If a people or
nation believes American objectives to be legitimate, we are
more likely to persuade them to follow our lead without using
threats and bribes.
Legitimacy can also reduce opposition—and the costs—of
using hard power when the situation demands. Appealing to
others’ values, interests and preferences can, in certain
circumstances, replace the dependence on carrots and sticks.
Cooperation is always a matter of degree, and it is profoundly
influenced by attraction.
Militaries are well suited to defeating states, but they are often
poor instruments to fight ideas. Today, victory depends on
attracting foreign populations to our side and helping them to
build capable, democratic states. Soft power is essential to
winning the peace. It is easier to attract people to democracy
than to coerce them to be democratic.
23. Smart Power
Smart power is neither hard nor soft—it is the skillful
combination of both. Smart power means developing
an integrated strategy, resource base, and tool kit to
achieve American objectives, drawing on both hard and
soft power. It is an approach that underscores the
necessity of a strong military, but also invests heavily in
alliances, partnerships, and institutions at all levels to
expand American influence and establish the legitimacy
of American action. Providing for the global good is
central to this effort because it helps America reconcile
its overwhelming power with the rest of the world’s
interests and values.
24. The United States has in its past wielded hard
and soft power in concert, with each contributing
a necessary component to a larger aim. We
used hard power to deter the Soviet Union
during the Cold War and soft power to rebuild
Japan and Europe with the Marshall Plan and to
establish institutions and norms that have
become the core of the international system.
Today’s context presents a unique set of
challenges, however, and requires a new way of
thinking about American power.
26. Power lies at the States have a two kind of power: latent
power and military power. These two forms of power are
closely related but not synonymous, because they are derived
from different kind of assets.
Latent power refers to the socio-economic ingredients that go
into building military power; it is largely based on a state’s
wealth and the overall size of its population. Great powers
need money, technology, a and personnel to build military
forces and to fight wars, and a state’s latent power refers to
the raw potential it can draw on when competing with rival
states.
In international politics, however, a state’s effective power is
ultimately a function of its military forces and how they
compare with the military forces of rival states…Therefore, the
balance of power is largely synonymous with the balance of
military power. I define power largely in military terms… (The
Tragedy of Great Power Politics)
28. Power is not a simple and stable
phenomenon. Indeed, it is very much a
political chameleon, constantly changing
even while it remains the same (John T.
Rourk)
Power Dynamics
Absolute and relative power
Objective and subjective power
Situational power
29. WILLIAM C. WOHLFORTH
The Rules of Power Analysis
Rule No. 1: Be Clear About Definitions of
Power
Rule No. 2: Watch the Goalposts
Rule No. 3: Do Not Rely on a Single
Indicator
Rule No. 4: Consider Latent Power
30. Rule No. 1: Be Clear About Definitions of Power
What have shifted are peoples' views of the real
utility of these resources and capabilities. Current
discussions of the limits of US power are really
focused on the limited usefulness of large amounts
of military and economic capabilities. Political
scientists generally use the term "power" to refer to
a relationship of influence. As Robert Dahl put it,
power is "ability to get B to do something it would
not otherwise have done" or, of course, to prevent B
from doing something it otherwise would have
done).
In international relations, the same term of "power"
is often equated with resources: measurable
elements that states possess and use to influence
others. In popular commentary-, these two
meanings of power are often conflated, with
unfortunate results.
31. To begin with, the challenge of converting power-as resources
into power-as-influence is not a uniquely US problem. All
great powers confront these challenges. If the cause of the
new gloominess concerning US power had to he reduced to
one word, it would be "Iraq." In 2003, fresh from apparent
military- victories in Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States
appeared to be a colossus. Yet in 2007, its inability to
suppress the Iraqi counterinsurgency- and civil war seems to
have revealed feet of clay. All the hard data on US military
superiority—its over one-half of global defense spending,
.some 70 percent of global military R&D, and dominance in
information-intensive warfare—now appear in a new light. The
world's most vaunted military machine is not even able to
tame disorganized Sunni and Shi'a militias in Mesopotamia.
But the example of Iraq exhibits a balance of power dynamic
between states and non-state insurgents, not one between
several different states. There is no reason to believe that
China, Russia, India, or the European Union would perform
any better if faced with the challenges that the US military
confronts in Iraq. Some scholars argue that Iraq demonstrates
new information about the state versus non-state balance.
32. Once an insurgency takes root, governments
rarely prevail. When they do—as in die case of
Britain in South Africa at the turn of the last
century and more recently, Russia in
Chechnya—it is usually the result of deploying
very large military forces willing to use ferocious
violence on a mass scale against innocent
civilians. With a comparatively small force in a
large and populous country, the United States'
inability to foster stability in Iraq is tragic, but not
surprising.
33. Rule No. 2: Watch the Goalposts
The larger problem with conflating power-
as-resources with power-as-influences
that it leads to a constant shifting of the
goalposts. The better die United States
becomes at acquiring resources, the
greater the array of global problems it is
expected to be able to resolve, and the
greater the apparent gap between its
material capabilities and die ends it can
achieve.
34. Rule No. 3: Do Not Rely on a Single
Indicator
Current projections of China's economic rise may well be
overstated. Iraq aside, what is most responsible for the
virtual shift to multipolarity is not a word but an acronym:
PPP. PPP stands for the "purchasing power parity"
estimate of countries' exchange rates—the size of their
economies in dollar terms. Although the prices oi many
manufactured products tend to be equalized by
international trade, the price of labor is not, and therefore
labor-intensive products and services tend to be
relatively cheap in poor counties. PPP corrects for this
discontinuity by using prices for a locally selected basket
of goods to adjust the exchange rate for converting local
currency into dollars. As University of Pennsylvania
professor Avery Goldstein notes, "the World Bank's
decision in 1994 to shift to a PPP estimate for China's
economy was crucial in propelling perceptions of that
country's imminent rise to great power status."
35. But forecasts about China's rise should not he based on
predictions on its living standards. They should discuss
China's presence as a great power in international
politics— its ability- to use money to purchase goods and
influence matters abroad. PPP clearly exaggerates this sort
of power. No one knows how much to discount the PPP
numbers for the purposes of making comparisons of
national power. What is certain, economist .Albert Keidel
notes, is that one should not "use projections of national
accounting growth rates from a PPP base. This common
practice seriously inflates estimates of Chinas future
economic size—exaggerating the speed with which China's
economy will overtake that of the United States in total
size." Projections must take into account the fact that
growth will cause prices to converge with international
norms, and thus the PPP to converge with the market
exchange rate. Using such a methodology, Keidel
estimates that it will take until 2050 for China's total
economic size to equal the United States. National power is
a complex phenomenon.
36. Rule No. 4: Consider Latent Power
US military forces are stretched thin, its budget and trade deficits
arc high, and the country continues to finance its profligate ways
by borrowing from abroad—notably from the Chinese
government. These developments have prompted many analysts
to warn that the United States suffers from "imperial overstretch."
And if US power is overstretched now, the argument goes,
unipolarity can hardly be sustainable for long. The problem with
this argument is that it fails to distinguish between actual and
latent power. One must he careful to take Into account both the
level of resources that can he mobilized and the degree to which
a government actually tries to mobilize them. And how much a
government asks of its public is partly a function of the severity of
the challenges that it faces. Indeed, one can never know for sure
what a state is capable of until it has been seriously challenged.
"self-inflicted overstretch"— in which a state lacks the sufficient
resources to meet its current foreign policy commitments in the
short term, but has untapped latent power ;and readily available
policy choices that it can use to draw on this power. This is
arguably the situation that the United States is in today.
37. Gregory Treverton, Seth G.
Jones (RAND)
“Measuring power: how to
predict future balances”,
Harvard International Review,
Summer, 2005
38. Power is an elusive concept. As the political scientist
Hans Morgenthau wrote, "The concept of political
power poses one of the most difficult and
controversial problems of political science."
Understanding the nature of power has long been
central to the study of international relations and to
the work of the US Intelligence Community. The task
is now all the more important and elusive, because
the United States enjoys an unprecedented amount
of economic, military, and technological might in
comparison to other states. Yet it must exercise its
power in a world not only of state-related constraints
on that power, but also of transnational forces and
non-state actors that act as competitors, qualifiers,
constrainers, and, sometimes, enhancers of that
power.
39. State power can be conceived at three
levels:
the level of resources or capabilities,
also known as power-in-being,
the level of power conversion through
national processes, and the
level of power in outcomes, by which we
refer to a state's tendency to prevail in
particular circumstances.
40. The starting point for thinking about--and developing
metrics for--national power is to view states as
"capability containers." Yet those capabilities--
demographic, economic, technological, and others--
become manifest only through a process of
conversion. States need to convert material resources,
or economic prowess, into more usable instruments
such as combat proficiency. In the end, however, what
policymakers care most about is not power as
capability, or even power converted from national
ethos, polities, and social cohesion. They care about
power in outcomes. That third level of power is by far
the most elusive, for it is contingent and relative. It
depends on how the power manifests itself, and
against whom the power is exercised.
41. the first level of state power
The main categories used to identify the first level of
state power, the level of capability, are gross
domestic product (GDP), population, defense
spending, and a less precise factor capturing
innovation in technology. Using these estimates,
power is summed as a percent of total global power,
and fourteen states hold at least a one percent
share. The United States is at the top of the power
structure, though it is hardly an isolated and
unilateral power. While the United States currently
holds nearly a fifth of total global power, it is closely
followed by the European Union, considered as a
unified actor, and China, which each hold about 14
percent. India, moreover, holds about 9 percent,
while Brazil, South Korea, and Russia each hold
about 2 percent.
42. These numbers, though only estimates, suggest
possible alliances that could match the power of
the United States acting alone or with its
traditional allies. Such a power assessment also
examines the most likely locations for future
conflict, based on six criteria. Projections
indicate that Asia is by far the most dangerous
region, with six of the eight most conflict-prone
bilateral balances involving China. The
assessment also indicates that by 2015, the
level of US power will be closely threatened by
China and India, while the European Union and
all non-US members of the Group of Eight will
experience a slow decline in power.
43. Converting Resources into Power
Carnegie scholar Ashley Tellis and his
colleagues at RAND have recently offered a re-
examination of the concept of "national power."
They began by assuming that a meticulous
detailing of visible military assets is required to
understand the true basis of national power. It
also requires a scrutiny of such variables as the
aptitude for innovation, the nature of social
institutions, and the quality of the knowledge
base. For Tellis and his colleagues, all of these
factors influence a country's capacity to produce
the one element that is still fundamental to
international politics--effective military power.
44. Their core argument is that national power is divided
into three linked realms: natural resources, national
performance, and military capabilities. The first
realm encompasses the level of resources either
available to, or produced by, a country. The second
realm, national performance, is derived from the
external pressures facing a country and the
efficiency of its governing institutions and its society
at large. The third realm, military capabilities, is
understood in terms of operational proficiency or
effectiveness. Military capability is produced as a
result of both the strategic resources available to a
military organization and its ability to convert those
resources into effective, coercive power. These
three realms taken together describe national
power.
45. The Tellis approach is still one of material capabilities,
though it gets to what might be called power-in-being. It is
about usable power, but does not involve power outcomes.
Rather than regard states as simple "containers of
capability," this approach considers ideas, organization,
and politics. Its ultimate objective is to understand the
process by which national resources are converted into
military capabilities--especially those that will improve
combat proficiency. In fact, Tellis' approach can be applied
to any country, and his team has empirically applied the
analysis to China. But since data can easily overwhelm the
exercise, it is imperative at a macro level to focus on the
three or four most critical factors. Therefore, the interplay of
power resources, transformative capabilities, and outcomes
have dominated the discussion.
46. Though many of the issues explored by Tellis and his colleagues are
critical, there is still a need to think about broadening the scope of
indicators. In general, four additional areas are important for power
conversion. The first area encompasses economic issues, including
access to capital. Researchers have generally focused on domestic
economic resources and capabilities. Changes in the global economy,
however, have created an impetus to find new indicators that measure the
ability of states to utilize global resources for domestic activities. For
example, it will become increasingly important to determine the impact of
outsourcing domestic jobs to companies in foreign countries. A second
area involves the institutions and political structures specific to a
given state. Important indicators include the level of corruption and the size
of what is called the "selectorate"--in other words, the size of the group to
which a leader is actually accountable. This indicator matters especially
because it affects the ability of states to allocate and distribute resources. A
third, and related, area incorporates values, trust, social capital, and
other aspects of civil society. That is, how do people cooperate and
interact in political and economic relationships? The final area is social
structure, a measure that includes societal stratification and ethnic and
class divisions.
47. Strategic Resources
What variables will help us to identify the great powers in
the international system in 2020? I
mportant variables include population, human capital,
economic power, technological prowess, and military
capabilities. However, the single most important form of
power in 2020 will continue to be military power.
Though military power is best indicated by defense
budgets, other measurements might include specific
military expenditures such as ground, air, and naval
force spending. While these indicators are easily
quantifiable, however, they do not always correlate well
with military effectiveness. In fact, history demonstrates
that smaller armies have defeated larger opponents
because of better training, doctrine, and strategy.
48. Today, economic power is the ultimate foundation of
military power, and the best indicator of economic power
is GDP. Like defense budgets, however, GDP provides
only a limited picture of power. It says little about the
composition of the economy, such as whether it is
spearheaded by leading sectors, or dominated by old
and declining ones. Therefore, it is often equally
important to consider variables such as human capital
and technology. The best "off the shelf" measure of
human capital is the average year of educational
attainment. When measuring technology, the best
indicator is per capita expenditure on research and
development.
49. Ultimately, however, none of these indicators
provides a complete picture of power in 2020.
Articulating an ideal indicator is difficult and,
perhaps, impossible. But it is likely to have
something to do with "quality": the ability of
states to convert these components into outputs
and make use of them. What truly determines
power in the end is a state's ability, through unity
and purpose, to mobilize and pursue national
ambitions.
50. Instruments of Power
Why do we evaluate and forecast levels of power? Power
assessment is crucial to understanding future national security
threats and developing useful instruments to address them. It is
argued, for example, that future threats to the United States will be
caused by a combination of economic, military, environmental, and
other variables. An abbreviated list of these threats includes
terrorism, pollution, transnational organized crime, demographic
changes, and even new health threats such as Severe Acute
Respiratory Syndrome.
Therefore, a menu of "old" and "new" power instruments will be
needed to combat these threats. In fact, several "old" power
instruments need to change--one of which is the military. In the past,
the military focused on conventional and nuclear warfare. In the
future, it will need to focus on countering asymmetric forces.
Economic instruments are equally in need of change; smarter
government instruments would not stifle markets and innovation, but
would provide social protection to populations.
51. More interesting, perhaps, are the implications for diplomacy as a
traditional instrument of power. Diplomacy in the United States has
traditionally been about selling the American way of life to foreign
governments and populations. A better approach might be to
promote local groups, institutions, and policies that are compatible
with US goals. For example, the US government might initiate a
policy of providing assistance to groups abroad that support ideals
and policies compatible with US interests, even when these groups
do not explicitly support, and perhaps even oppose, the United
States.
This strategy may help to legitimize the United States abroad and
help it better achieve policy change through diplomacy and
cooperative efforts. Moreover, it might be beneficial for the United
States to adopt a policy of "strategic restraint." Exercising restraint in
the United States' use of hard power abroad will decrease
counterbalancing and increase regional cooperation.
52. Improving Our Ability to Forecast
Power
Several variables and indicators provide
information about the current state of
power distribution, especially the softer
forms. Such variables--which include
cultural attractiveness, political outcomes
and rulings, knowledge generation and
use, and governance effectiveness--might
be incorporated in predicting distributions
of power.
53. The first of these variables, cultural attractiveness, includes the
"consumption" of US culture, the prevalence of English, the spread
of US-style institutions, and the allure of US universities. It would be
interesting to conduct an opinion poll that asked respondents
questions such as: If you could live anywhere in the world, other
than your own country, where would you live and why? Would your
choice be most influenced by economic, political, or cultural factors?
Equally interesting would be an indicator of knowledge generation
and use. This includes a variety of research and development
expenditures (total amounts, basic research levels, military research
levels), the extent of education at the college level and beyond, the
quality of education, and knowledge infrastructure, such as
computers, telephones, and the prevalence of networked users. A
third variable is the set of political outcomes, such as UN votes and
World Trade Organization dispute rulings, that determine which
states win and which lose, while additional indicators may include
the influence of non-state actors, governance effectiveness, and
measures of globalization.
54. It might be useful to build on these variables and indicators in
several ways. First, they could be incorporated into the set of factors
from which aggregate power indices are computed. In fact, the
system of flexible weighting that already exists should make this
incorporation easy. In addition, it might be useful to create an
absolute power index in contrast to the current index of relative
power. Although states are characterized by their percentage of
system power, many states and non-state actors have been
increasing their absolute power in ways that affect overall system
behavior. For instance, when non-state actors such as terrorist
groups achieve significant absolute power, including the ability to do
harm, that fact may be more important than their relative power,
which is likely to be modest. On the other hand, the relative power of
the United States, while enormous in absolute terms, has limits--
limits that have become visible in Iraq. Indicators or thresholds for
absolute power would be helpful.
55. Second, it may be useful to simplify and
improve the user interface for addressing
power. It might be helpful, for instance, to
add a basic report capability focused on
the indices of power and the component
elements of it. It might also be worth
considering a specialized form to simplify
the controlling of weighting and index
construction.
56. Forecasts, however, will only be as good as the underlying
model. There are at least three areas where the foundations
of any power model can be enhanced. First, it would be useful
to turn attention to the production function in the economic
model. The quality of economic growth forecasts is
fundamental to most of what the model does. It would be
helpful to better represent that production function in a way
that builds more extensively on current theories of
endogenous growth. Another critical change involves the
development of the education sub-model. Returns to
education, both in terms of quality and prevalence, may have
important implications for models of future power structures.
Third, an area that needs significant work is the
representation of debt and its impact on countries. Significant
power shifts could occur in the international system as a result
of exchange rate changes and financial crises.
57. relying only on the base case. The most intuitive set of scenarios would
build on different assumptions of economic growth rates. For example, the
RAND Corporation has applied a technique called "fault lines" to China. The
analysis asked what major "fault lines," or adversities, might seriously affect
China's ability to sustain rapid economic growth. It identified such factors as
unemployment, poverty, social unrest, corruption, epidemic diseases, as
well as water resources and pollution. It then asked how these adversities
might occur, and by how much they would affect China's growth.
Wild cards--exogenous shocks to the system--are also important to
consider. Future shocks might include energy system shocks, financial
shocks, collapses of key regimes, or lethal terrorist attacks. One way RAND
has looked at shocks is "breaking" continuities--searching for factors where
predictions of continuity seem dubious, even if predicting exactly how, let
alone when, that continuity might break is elusive. Breaking is especially
likely when two measures of continuity are uneasy partners. For
example, several years ago, work on the Asian Futures model included
exogenous shocks in Korea and China. In Korea, the heavily armed
confrontation is sustained even as North Korea declines economically but
does not collapse. Similarly, in the China-Taiwan conflict, the stand-off goes
up and down in temperature while China does not accept de facto
Taiwanese autonomy, and Taiwan does not declare de jure independence.
58. In sum, there are a number of steps that must be
taken if we are to better understand power and
forecast international distributions of power.
These include strengthening indices of relative
and absolute power, enhancing the foundations
of the power model, and developing future
scenarios. If taken, these steps can provide
policy makers with a more useful set of variables
to measure power, and ultimately improve their
ability to understand the future security
environment.
59. Power resources of the Major U. S.
contenders, 1990
Source of Power United States Soviet Union Europe Japan China
Tangible
Basic resources strong strong strong medium strong
Military strong strong medium weak medium
Economic strong medium strong strong medum
Science/
Technology
strong medium strong strong weak
Intangible
National
Cohesion
strong medium weak Strong strong
Universalistic
Culture
strong medium strong medium medium
International
Institutions
strong medium strong strong medium
60. Sources of
power
United States Japan China Russia European
Union
India
tangible
Basic
resources
strong medium strong strong strong Strong to
medium
Military strong weak medium strong medium medium
Economic strong strong strong and
medium
medium and
strong
strong medium to strong
Science/
Technology
strong strong medium medium strong
Intangible
National
Cohesion
strong strong strong medium weak weak and
medium
Universalistic
Culture
strong medium medium medium strong medium
International
Institutions
strong strong medium medium strong medium
Power resources of the Major U. S.
contenders, 2008 – moja procena
61. Sources of
power
United States Japan China Russia European
Union
India
tangible
Basic
resources
Military
Economic
Science/
Technology
Intangible
National
Cohesion
Universalistic
Culture
International
Institutions
Power resources of the Major U. S.
contenders in the future?
62. Ballance of Power
Indicates the relative distribution of power
among states into equal or unequal
shares.
Traditionally, it refers to a state of affairs in
which no one state predominates over
others.
Prescriptively, it refers to a policy of
promoting a power equilibrium on the
assumption that unbalanced power is
dangerous.
63.
64. Ballance of Power
Prudent states that are at a disadvantage
in the balance of power will (or at least
should) form an alliance against a
potentially hegemonic state or take other
measures to enhance their ability to
restrain a possible aggressor.
One state may opt for a self-conscious
balancing role, changing sides as
necessary to preserve the equilibrium.
65. Certain conditions of BoP
a multiplicity of sovereign states
unconstrained by any legitimate central
authority;
continuous but controlled competition over
scarce resources or conflicting values;
an unequal distribution of status, wealth,
and power potential among the political
actors that make up the system.
66. equilibrium
a kind of compromise among states that find its order
preferable to absolute chaos, even though it is a system
that favours the stronger and more prosperous states at
the expense of sovereign equality for all of them
Great powers play the leading roles in balance of power
systems because of their preponderant military force and
their control of key technologies.
hegemonic state will often try to justify its position either
by providing certain public goods for other states (such
as a beneficial economic order or international security),
or because it embraces values that are common to a set
of states. Great powers reap a disproportionate share of
the benefits of the system, but they also bear a greater
responsibility as its regulators
67.
68. key distinctions
Unipolarity; one state or superpower
dominates the international system.
Bipolarity; two states or blocs of states are
roughly equal in power.
Multipolarity refers to a situation in which
there are at least three great powers.
71. Other distinction
Subjective and an objective balance of power.
One of the great difficulties of evaluating the
balance of power in the 21st century is that
power resources are unevenly distributed
among the great powers and there is no simple
correspondence between possession of a
resource and the ability to control outcomes as a
consequence. For example, whilst the United
States is overwhelmingly dominant in terms of
military power, economic power is much more
evenly distributed between the United States,
Western Europe, and Japan
72.
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