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Ten in Ten
Ten Technology Trends that
Will Change the World in Ten Years
Dave Evans
Cisco’s Chief Futurist and Chief Technologist for Cisco
Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG)
CiscoLive
July 12, 2011
The Ten…
Trends and implications

1.      The Internet of Things
2.      The Zettaflood Is Coming
3.      Wisdom of the Cloud
4.      The Next Net
5.      The World Is Flat and So Is Your Technology
6.      The Power of Power
7.      It’s All About You
8.      The Next Dimension
9.      Another Family Tree
10.     You…Only Better
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011
1
Internet of Things:
First Evolution of the Internet
The Internet of Things Is Already Here
    World Population:      6.3 Billion   6.8 Billion   7.2 Billion   7.6 Billion
Connected Devices:         500 Million 12.5 Billion    25 Billion    50 Billion




                                   More
                                 connected
                                  devices
                                than people
   Connected Devices        0.08            1.84         3.47          6.58
          Per Person
                            2003            2010         2015          2020

Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011
New Internet Inhabitants
What do trees, cows, shoes, and your body have in common?




      This tree has 3,000                        Cow transmits
                                                                                     Connected shoe
      followers…do you?                         200 MB per year


                                           Asthma inhaler
                                          cross-referenced
                                         with environmental /
                                             weather data                     Proteus chip transmits
                                                                              data from your stomach
Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Sparked, 2010; Nike, 2010; David Van Sickle, 2011; Proteus, 2011
IPv6: Connectivity Without Meaningful Limits




      52,000 trillion trillion                 100 addresses for                4.8 trillion addresses
        addresses per                          every atom on the                for every star in the
           person                                earth’s surface                   known universe


IPv4 addresses:                                       4,294,967,296
IPv6 addresses: 340,282,366,920,938,463,463,374,607,431,768,211,456

  Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2006–2011; Steve Leibson, Computer History Museum; CNN
The Opportunity:
Turning Data into Wisdom
                             More
                           Important


                            Wisdom

                           Knowledge



                           Information


                              Data
                                           Less
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011
                                         Important
2
The Zettaflood Is Coming
By 2015, 1 Zettabyte of Data
Will Flow over the Internet

 One zettabyte = stack of books from
  Earth to Pluto 20 times (72 billion miles)
 Increase of 540,000 times from 2003;
  more than 90% from video
 If an 11 oz. cup of coffee equals
  1 gigabyte, then 1 zettabyte
  would have the same volume
  of the Great Wall of China




Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI), June 2011
3
Wisdom of the Cloud
More and More Data in the Cloud
                                                                                           Cloud
                                                                          Virtualization
                                                                    Web

                                       Client Server
                 Minicomputer
Mainframe




   1960                1970                 1980                1990         2000           2010
 By 2020, one-third of all data will live in or pass through the cloud
 Global cloud services revenue will jump 20% per year
 IT spending on innovation and cloud computing could top $1 trillion by 2014

                                                                    Creating new capabilities…
Sources: Lew Tucker, Cloud CTO, Cisco, 2011; EMC, 2010; IDC, 2010
Watson Will Improve Our Health
What if Watson were a cloud service?


      From Jeopardy winner…                   …to healthcare provider




   IBM’s Watson supercomputer defeats   Watson’s ability to answer questions
     humans in final Jeopardy match     makes it ideal for doctors to improve
                                                    patient care

Source: IBM, 2011
4
The Next Net
Recent Networking Advances
 February 2011: Ericsson and Sant’Anna demonstrate
  448 GB per second over fiber (20 HD movies / second)
 March 2011: Northwestern University researchers develop new
  switching device to usher in ultrafast quantum Internet
 April 2011: World record set by sending more than 100 terabits of
  information per second through a single optical fiber
 May 2011: Researchers set new record for rate of data transfer using
  a single laser at 26 terabits per second



                              All developments in 4-month period
Sources: American Physical Society, 2011; BBC, 2011
5
The World Is Flat…
So Is Your Technology
From Near Time to Real Time
Everyone becomes a reporter




                           +                +                 =
   Broadband                   Anywhere,
                                anytime         Internet TV
    wireless
                               production



                                                 In 10 years,
     anyone will broadcast anywhere to anybody on any device
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011
6
The Power of Power
Solar Is a Viable Solution

 Sandia produces solar cells
  with 100 times less material /
  same efficiency
 MIT technology allows
  windows to generate power
  without blocking view
 June 2011: inkjet printer produces
  solar cells with 90 percent decrease
  in waste at significantly lower costs

                                           Oregon State University researchers
                                          develop novel method to produce solar
                                                 cells using inkjet printer

Source: BBC News, June 2011
7
It’s All About You
Brain-Machine Interfaces:
The Ultimate Integration
February 2009: University of Toronto scientists invent machine
that determines what you’re thinking (80% accuracy)
June 2009: University of Southampton demonstrates brain-to-
brain communication over Internet                                            Brain-controlled prosthesis

October 2009: Toyota showcases mind-controlled wheelchair
with 95% accuracy
March 2010: University of Maryland decodes brain signals /
reconstructs into 3D hand movements
April 2010: Intel software analyzes fMRI scans to determine
what you’re thinking (90% accuracy)
July 2011: University of Western Ontario develops technology
to predict what a person is going to do before he or she does it
                                                                             Mind-controlled wheelchair



                                                 Artificial brain implants expected by 2030
Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Toyota; CNN; USA Today; KurzweilAI.net; wfs.org
8
The Next Dimension
Tomorrow: Anything on Demand
Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing)

 Additive manufacturing:
  “The process of joining materials
  to make objects from 3D model
  data, usually layer upon layer.”

                                      Printing file size approx. 1 MB




 Subtractive manufacturing
  includes methodologies such as
  traditional machining




Source: Stratasys, 2011
3D Printing a Gimmick? You Decide.




                                                        Dinosaur skull




              Toy car
                                                                          Model engine



                                                        Working bicycle
Sources: Stratasys, 2011; European Air Defense System
3D Printing: What About Us?

    Developed technique to print human                                 March 2011: Dr. Atala prints a
     cells using modified inkjet printer                               kidney mold on stage at TED




                                                                               (Proof of principle only)



Source: Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine, 2011; TED Conferences, LLC
9
Another Family Tree
Interacting with Technology: Artificial Entities
“It’s possible to make a conscious computer with superhuman
 intelligence before 2020.”
Ian Pearson
Head of Futurology
British Telecommunications
                                                                              Automatic emotions,
                                                                               gestures, and
                                                                               responses
                                                               Emily          Speech recognition
                                                                              Text-to-speech
                                                                              Knowledge of previous
                                Current
                              Technology
                                                                               encounters (memory)

   Virtual Valerie                                                            Every interaction will
                                                                               be a network call
           Progression of Conversational Interfaces
Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2006-2011; Carnegie Mellon, 2004; Image Metrics, 2010
10
You…Only Better
Fundamental Changes
Self-Evolution of the Species
                  March 2010                          July 2009
       Retina implant restores                        Spanish researchers discover
        vision to blind patients                      substance for photographic memory

                                                      October 2009
              February 2010
                                                      University of Washington
     Artificial retina (Argus III)
                                                      researchers develop non-invasive brain-
      developed by Lawrence
                                                      computer interface (BCI) that allows a
     Livermore National Labs
                                                      user to command humanoid robot

               October 2009                           August 2009
             Italian and Swedish                      Wicab develops device that lets
         scientists develop first                     blind “see" with their tongues
     artificial hand with feeling
                                                      December 2009
                                                      Organovo 3D bio-printer prototype may
                    June 2011
                                                      print human tissues and organs
Texas Heart Institute develops
 “spinning” heart (no pulse, no
                                                      April 2010
        clogs, no breakdowns)
                                                      Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston
                                                      trialing artificial pancreas in 11 patients
                   April 2010
 Scientists at Chicago’s Rush                         February 2010
University Medical Center find                        University of Michigan develops artificial foot
 possible cure for skin cancer                        to make it easier for amputees to walk


  Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Science Magazine, 2010
Ten Technology Trends That Will Change the World in Ten Years

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Ten Technology Trends That Will Change the World in Ten Years

  • 1. Ten in Ten Ten Technology Trends that Will Change the World in Ten Years Dave Evans Cisco’s Chief Futurist and Chief Technologist for Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) CiscoLive July 12, 2011
  • 2. The Ten… Trends and implications 1. The Internet of Things 2. The Zettaflood Is Coming 3. Wisdom of the Cloud 4. The Next Net 5. The World Is Flat and So Is Your Technology 6. The Power of Power 7. It’s All About You 8. The Next Dimension 9. Another Family Tree 10. You…Only Better Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011
  • 3. 1 Internet of Things: First Evolution of the Internet
  • 4. The Internet of Things Is Already Here World Population: 6.3 Billion 6.8 Billion 7.2 Billion 7.6 Billion Connected Devices: 500 Million 12.5 Billion 25 Billion 50 Billion More connected devices than people Connected Devices 0.08 1.84 3.47 6.58 Per Person 2003 2010 2015 2020 Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011
  • 5. New Internet Inhabitants What do trees, cows, shoes, and your body have in common? This tree has 3,000 Cow transmits Connected shoe followers…do you? 200 MB per year Asthma inhaler cross-referenced with environmental / weather data Proteus chip transmits data from your stomach Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Sparked, 2010; Nike, 2010; David Van Sickle, 2011; Proteus, 2011
  • 6. IPv6: Connectivity Without Meaningful Limits 52,000 trillion trillion 100 addresses for 4.8 trillion addresses addresses per every atom on the for every star in the person earth’s surface known universe IPv4 addresses: 4,294,967,296 IPv6 addresses: 340,282,366,920,938,463,463,374,607,431,768,211,456 Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2006–2011; Steve Leibson, Computer History Museum; CNN
  • 7. The Opportunity: Turning Data into Wisdom More Important Wisdom Knowledge Information Data Less Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011 Important
  • 9. By 2015, 1 Zettabyte of Data Will Flow over the Internet  One zettabyte = stack of books from Earth to Pluto 20 times (72 billion miles)  Increase of 540,000 times from 2003; more than 90% from video  If an 11 oz. cup of coffee equals 1 gigabyte, then 1 zettabyte would have the same volume of the Great Wall of China Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI), June 2011
  • 11. More and More Data in the Cloud Cloud Virtualization Web Client Server Minicomputer Mainframe 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010  By 2020, one-third of all data will live in or pass through the cloud  Global cloud services revenue will jump 20% per year  IT spending on innovation and cloud computing could top $1 trillion by 2014 Creating new capabilities… Sources: Lew Tucker, Cloud CTO, Cisco, 2011; EMC, 2010; IDC, 2010
  • 12. Watson Will Improve Our Health What if Watson were a cloud service? From Jeopardy winner… …to healthcare provider IBM’s Watson supercomputer defeats Watson’s ability to answer questions humans in final Jeopardy match makes it ideal for doctors to improve patient care Source: IBM, 2011
  • 14. Recent Networking Advances  February 2011: Ericsson and Sant’Anna demonstrate 448 GB per second over fiber (20 HD movies / second)  March 2011: Northwestern University researchers develop new switching device to usher in ultrafast quantum Internet  April 2011: World record set by sending more than 100 terabits of information per second through a single optical fiber  May 2011: Researchers set new record for rate of data transfer using a single laser at 26 terabits per second All developments in 4-month period Sources: American Physical Society, 2011; BBC, 2011
  • 15. 5 The World Is Flat… So Is Your Technology
  • 16. From Near Time to Real Time Everyone becomes a reporter + + = Broadband Anywhere, anytime Internet TV wireless production In 10 years, anyone will broadcast anywhere to anybody on any device Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011
  • 17. 6 The Power of Power
  • 18. Solar Is a Viable Solution  Sandia produces solar cells with 100 times less material / same efficiency  MIT technology allows windows to generate power without blocking view  June 2011: inkjet printer produces solar cells with 90 percent decrease in waste at significantly lower costs Oregon State University researchers develop novel method to produce solar cells using inkjet printer Source: BBC News, June 2011
  • 20. Brain-Machine Interfaces: The Ultimate Integration February 2009: University of Toronto scientists invent machine that determines what you’re thinking (80% accuracy) June 2009: University of Southampton demonstrates brain-to- brain communication over Internet Brain-controlled prosthesis October 2009: Toyota showcases mind-controlled wheelchair with 95% accuracy March 2010: University of Maryland decodes brain signals / reconstructs into 3D hand movements April 2010: Intel software analyzes fMRI scans to determine what you’re thinking (90% accuracy) July 2011: University of Western Ontario develops technology to predict what a person is going to do before he or she does it Mind-controlled wheelchair Artificial brain implants expected by 2030 Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Toyota; CNN; USA Today; KurzweilAI.net; wfs.org
  • 21. 8 The Next Dimension Tomorrow: Anything on Demand
  • 22. Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing)  Additive manufacturing: “The process of joining materials to make objects from 3D model data, usually layer upon layer.” Printing file size approx. 1 MB  Subtractive manufacturing includes methodologies such as traditional machining Source: Stratasys, 2011
  • 23. 3D Printing a Gimmick? You Decide. Dinosaur skull Toy car Model engine Working bicycle Sources: Stratasys, 2011; European Air Defense System
  • 24. 3D Printing: What About Us? Developed technique to print human March 2011: Dr. Atala prints a cells using modified inkjet printer kidney mold on stage at TED (Proof of principle only) Source: Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine, 2011; TED Conferences, LLC
  • 26. Interacting with Technology: Artificial Entities “It’s possible to make a conscious computer with superhuman intelligence before 2020.” Ian Pearson Head of Futurology British Telecommunications  Automatic emotions, gestures, and responses Emily  Speech recognition  Text-to-speech  Knowledge of previous Current Technology encounters (memory) Virtual Valerie  Every interaction will be a network call Progression of Conversational Interfaces Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2006-2011; Carnegie Mellon, 2004; Image Metrics, 2010
  • 28. Self-Evolution of the Species March 2010 July 2009 Retina implant restores Spanish researchers discover vision to blind patients substance for photographic memory October 2009 February 2010 University of Washington Artificial retina (Argus III) researchers develop non-invasive brain- developed by Lawrence computer interface (BCI) that allows a Livermore National Labs user to command humanoid robot October 2009 August 2009 Italian and Swedish Wicab develops device that lets scientists develop first blind “see" with their tongues artificial hand with feeling December 2009 Organovo 3D bio-printer prototype may June 2011 print human tissues and organs Texas Heart Institute develops “spinning” heart (no pulse, no April 2010 clogs, no breakdowns) Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston trialing artificial pancreas in 11 patients April 2010 Scientists at Chicago’s Rush February 2010 University Medical Center find University of Michigan develops artificial foot possible cure for skin cancer to make it easier for amputees to walk Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Science Magazine, 2010