The document discusses various techniques in data mining including predictive, descriptive and classification methods. It provides examples of opportunities in data mining through vast amounts of data being collected in fields like astronomy, biology, physics and business. Challenges discussed include dealing with incomplete records and interpreting results from models to avoid overfitting. Both supervised and unsupervised learning techniques are covered.

1. Data Mining Predictive Descriptive classification regression time series analysis prediction clustering association rules summarization sequence discovery AI Machine learning Neural networks Deductive detabases

2. Detecting regularities in data (bird flue cases) Detecting rare occurrences, rare events Finding “causal” relationships Discovering useful information in large data sets

3. Opportunities Collecting vast amounts of data has become possible. Ex1: Astromomy: petabytes of information are collected Laboratory for Cosmological Data Mining (LCDM) 1 petabyte (PB) = 2 50 bytes = 1,125,899,906,842,624 bytes. 1 petabyte = 1,024 terabytes 1 terabyte (TB) = 1,024 gigabytes => The armchair astronomer

4. Ex2: Biology: huge sequences of nucleotides have been collected. (The human genome contains more than 3.2 billion base pairs and more than 30 000 genes). http://www.genomesonline.org Very little of that has been interpreted yet.

5. Ex: Physics, Geography, weather data, … Business, … Data in many forms numerical discrete continuous categorical raw data cleaned data complete records Incomplete records (missing data) formatted data unformatted data

6. Tasks Fit data to model Descriptive Predictive Finding the “best” model ??? Beware of model overfitting! Interpreting results Evaluating models (ex: lift charts) => Usually a lot of going back and forth between model(s) and data

7. Another complementary tack: Interactive visual data exploration Remarkable properties of the human visual system. (ex: analysis of a pseudo random number generator) Various visual representation schemes Simultaneous viewing (fast) sequential viewing Animating data (dynamic queries) Other possibilities: converting data to sounds, etc.

8. Two broad approaches to Learning Supervised learning ex: want to discover a model to help classify stars, based on emission spectra. In the “training set” the correct classification of the stars is known. The resulting model is used to predict the class of a new star (not in the training set) Unsupervised learning ex: want to group a set of stars into a small number sufficiently homogenous sub-groups of stars

9. Many techniques Fast evolving field Statistical Descriptive stats, graphics, .. Regression analysis Principal components analysis Time series analysis Cluster analysis (use of a distance measure) Naïve Bayse classifiers Artificial intelligence Rule induction (Machine Learning) Various inference techniques (various logics, deductive databases,…)

10. Pattern matching (speech recognition) Neural networks (many approaches) Genetic algorithms Baysian networks (probably the best approach to model complex causal structures) Information retrieval Many specialized models (vector model,…) Concepts of Precision and Recall Many ad hoc techniques Co-occurrence analysis MK generality analysis Association analysis

11. One famous technique Ross Quinlan’s ID3 algorithm

12. The weather data N TRUE high mild rain 14 P FALSE normal hot overcast 13 P TRUE high mild overcast 12 P TRUE normal mild sunny 11 P FALSE normal mild rain 10 P FALSE normal cool sunny 9 N FALSE high mild sunny 8 P TRUE normal cool overcast 7 N TRUE normal cool rain 6 P FALSE normal cool rain 5 P FALSE high mild rain 4 P FALSE high hot overcast 3 N TRUE high hot sunny 2 N FALSE high hot sunny 1 Class Windy Humidity Temperature Outlook Object

14. From decision trees to rules Reading rules from a tree Unambiguous Rule order not counting Alternative rules for the same conclusion are ORed But too complex rules

15. Rules can be much more compact than trees Ex: if x=1 and y = 1 then class=a if z=1and w=1 then class=a Otherwise class=b

16. From rules to decision trees Rule disjunction result in too complex trees. Ex: write as a tree If a and b then x If c and d then x ( Fig. 3.2 ) (replicated sub-tree problem) Ex : tree and rules of equivalent complexity Ex: tree much more complex than rules

17. To learn from examples, the examples must be rich enough Ex: sister-of relation ( fig 2-1 ) Denormalization ( fig 2-3 ) Importance of data preparation

18. Attributes An attribute may be irrelevant in a given context (ex: number of wheels for a ship in a database of transportation vehicles => Create value “irrelevant”

19. Software tools Many commercial software CART ( http://www.salford-systems.com/landing.php ) SPSS modules WEKA (free) ( http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/~ml/weka/ ) For a larger list: http:// www.kdnuggets.com/software/suites.html Many field specific software In the context of GRID computing Demonstrating WEKA

20. Ad hoc methods Co-occurrence analysis MK generality analysis

21. Term Co-occurrence Analysis The following approach measures the strength of association between a term i and a term j of the set of documents by: e(i,j) 2 = (C ij ) 2 /(C i * C j ) Where: Ci : is the number of documents indexed by term i Cj : is the number of documents indexed by term j Cij : is the number of documents indexed both by terms i and j

23. Interactive Data Visualization Fish eye views Hyperbolic trees Linear Visual data sequences Dynamic queries

25. Tree Maps Financial Data http://www.smartmoney.com/marketmap/

26. Conclusion Current state of the art (Graphic Models – Markov networks) Still an art Ethical issues

27. Baysian Networks Objective: determine probability estimates that a given sample belongs to a class Probability(x  Class | attribute values) Baysian network: One node for each attribute Nodes connected in an acyclic graph Conditional independance

29. Learning a baysian network from data Function for evaluating a given network based on the data Function for searching through the space of possible networks K1 and TAN algorithms

30. Baysian Networks   Graphical Models = Markov models undirected edges