More Related Content Similar to Милан Циркович. Антропная тень Similar to Милан Циркович. Антропная тень (20) 1. Ⱥɧɬɪɨɩɧɚɹ ɬɟɧɶ: ɷɮɮɟɤɬɵ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ ɢ
ɪɢɫɤɢ ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɹ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɬɜɚ
«Risk Analysis», forthcoming
Milan M. Ćirković
Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade, Volgina 7, 11160 Belgrade-74, Serbia
E-mail: mcirkovic@aob.rs
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute, Faculty of Philosophy & James Martin 21st Century School,
Oxford University, Oxford, UK
E-mail: anders.sandberg@philosophy.ox.ac.uk
Nick Bostrom
Future of Humanity Institute Faculty of Philosophy & James Martin 21st Century School,
Oxford University, UK
E-mail: nick.bostrom@philosophy.ox.ac.uk
ɉɟɪɟɜɨɞ: Ⱦ.ɗ.Ȼɨɪɢɫɨɝɥɟɛɫɤɢɣ
dmitry.borisoglebsky@gmail.com
Ɋɟɞɚɤɰɢɹ: Ⱥ.ȼ.Ɍɭɪɱɢɧ
Ɉɪɢɝɢɧɚɥ:
http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/anthropicshadow.pdf
Ɇɵ ɨɩɢɫɵɜɚɟɦ ɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɟ ɩɪɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɹ ɨɬ ɩɪɢɧɹɬɢɹ ɜ ɪɚɫɱɟɬ
ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɝɨ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɹ (antropic bias ± ɷɬɨɬ ɬɟɪɦɢɧ ɩɪɨɢɫɯɨɞɢɬ ɨɬ ɬɟɪɦɢɧɚ «ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɵɣ
ɩɪɢɧɰɢɩ» ɢ ɨɩɢɫɵɜɚɟɬ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɭɸ ɨɲɢɛɤɭ, ɜɨɡɧɢɤɚɸɳɭɸ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɧɟɭɱɺɬɚ
ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɱɢɫɥɚ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ ± ɩɪɢɦ.ɩɟɪ.) ɩɪɢ
ɜɵɜɨɞɟ ɩɪɟɞɫɤɚɡɚɧɢɣ ɨɬɧɨɫɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɪɟɞɤɢɯ ɫɥɭɱɚɣɧɵɯ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ.
Ɉɰɟɧɤɢ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɪɢɫɤɨɜ, ɫɜɹɡɚɧɧɵɯ ɫ ɬɚɤɢɦɢ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɢɱɟɫɤɢɦɢ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹɦɢ ɤɚɤ
ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɧɵɟ/ɤɨɦɟɬɧɵɟ ɭɞɚɪɵ, ɫɭɩɟɪɜɭɥɤɚɧɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɢɡɜɟɪɠɟɧɢɹ ɢ ɜɡɪɵɜɵ
ɫɜɟɪɯɧɨɜɵɯ/ɝɚɦɦɚ-ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɢ, ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɵ ɧɚ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɢ ɱɚɫɬɨɬɵ, ɫ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɣ ɨɧɢ
ɩɪɨɢɫɯɨɞɹɬ. ȼ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢ ɧɟɞɨɨɰɟɧɢɜɚɸɬɫɹ ɱɚɫɬɨɬɵ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ
ɭɧɢɱɬɨɠɚɸɬ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ ɢɥɢ ɞɪɭɝɢɦ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɦ ɧɟɫɨɜɦɟɫɬɢɦɵ ɫ ɢɯ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɟɦ.
Ɇɵ ɨɩɢɫɵɜɚɟɦ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɹ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɝɨ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɹ ɩɪɢ ɨɰɟɧɤɟ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɪɢɫɤɨɜ
ɢ ɧɚɡɵɜɚɟɦ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɬɟɦɵ ɞɥɹ ɞɚɥɶɧɟɣɲɢɯ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɣ.
2. Ʉɥɸɱɟɜɵɟ ɫɥɨɜɚ: ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ, ɭɝɪɨɡɵ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɸ, ɩɪɢɪɨɞɧɵɟ
ɨɩɚɫɧɨɫɬɢ, ɚɫɬɪɨɛɢɨɥɨɝɢɹ, ɷɮɮɟɤɬɵ ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ, ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɵɣ ɩɪɢɧɰɢɩ, ɭɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɟ ɪɢɫɤɚɦɢ,
ɭɝɪɨɡɵ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ, ɮɚɡɨɜɵɣ ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞ ɜɚɤɭɭɦɚ.
1. ȼɜɟɞɟɧɢɟ: ɭɝɪɨɡɵ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɸ ɢ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɵ
ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ
ɑɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɫɬɨɢɬ ɩɟɪɟɞ ɪɹɞɨɦ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɭɝɪɨɡ, ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɧɵɯ ɤɚɤ ɜ ɛɥɢɡɤɨɦ, ɬɚɤ ɢ
ɞɚɥɺɤɨɦ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɦ. Ⱦɥɹ ɥɸɛɨɝɨ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɤɚ, ɡɚɢɧɬɟɪɟɫɨɜɚɧɧɨɝɨ ɜ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɦ ɧɚɲɟɝɨ
ɛɢɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɜɢɞɚ, ɷɬɢ ɭɝɪɨɡɵ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɬ ɬɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɢɧɬɟɪɟɫ; ɨɧɢ ɬɚɤɠɟ
ɧɚɩɪɹɦɭɸ ɫɜɹɡɚɧɵ ɫ ɩɪɢɧɢɦɚɟɦɵɦɢ ɫɟɣɱɚɫ ɩɪɢɤɥɚɞɧɵɦɢ ɢ ɫɬɪɚɬɟɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɦɢ ɪɟɲɟɧɢɹɦɢ.
Ɉɛɳɟɟ ɩɨɧɢɦɚɧɢɟ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɵɯ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ ɜɨɡɪɨɫɥɨ ɛɥɚɝɨɞɚɪɹ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɧɢɦ
ɨɬɤɪɵɬɢɹɦ ɜ ɝɟɨɯɢɦɢɢ, ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɤɚ, ɚɫɬɪɨɮɢɡɢɤɢ ɢ ɦɨɥɟɤɭɥɹɪɧɨɣ ɛɢɨɥɨɝɢɢ [1-6].
ɗɬɨ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɬ ɩɨɞɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɨ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ, ɧɚɡɵɜɚɟɦɵɯ ɭɝɪɨɡɚɦɢ
ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɸ (existential risks -ɍɋ), ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɩɪɢɜɟɫɬɢ ɥɢɛɨ ɤ ɭɧɢɱɬɨɠɟɧɢɸ
ɪɚɡɭɦɧɨɣ ɠɢɡɧɢ ɧɚ Ɂɟɦɥɟ, ɥɢɛɨ ɧɚɜɫɟɝɞɚ ɢ ɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɚɬ ɟɺ ɩɨɬɟɧɰɢɚɥ [7]. ȼ
ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɨɜ ɍɋ ɦɨɠɧɨ ɜɡɹɬɶ ɬɨɬɚɥɶɧɭɸ ɹɞɟɪɧɭɸ ɜɨɣɧɭ, ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɢ 10-ɤɦ (ɢɥɢ
ɛɨɥɶɲɟɝɨ) ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɚ ɢɥɢ ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɫ Ɂɟɦɥɺɣ, ɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɟ ɢɥɢ ɫɥɭɱɚɣɧɨɟ
ɡɥɨɭɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɟ ɛɢɨ- ɢɥɢ ɧɚɧɨ ɬɟɯɧɨɥɨɝɢɣ, ɢɥɢ ɧɟɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɟɧɧɨ ɪɚɫɬɭɳɟɟ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɟ
ɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɟ.
ɋɭɳɟɫɬɜɭɟɬ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɨ ɬɚɤɫɨɧɨɦɢɣ ɍɋ [7]. Ɍɚɤɫɨɧɨɦɢɹ, ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɧɚɹ ɧɚ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɧɵɯ
ɮɚɤɬɨɪɚɯ, ɧɚɦ ɩɨɞɯɨɞɢɬ ɛɨɥɶɲɟ ɜɫɟɝɨ. Ɇɵ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɚɟɦ: (1) ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɟ ɍɋ (ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɹ
ɫ ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɚɦɢ ɢ ɤɨɦɟɬɚɦɢ, ɫɭɩɟɪɜɭɥɤɚɧɢɡɦ, ɧɟɚɧɬɪɨɩɨɝɟɧɧɵɟ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ, ɜɡɪɵɜɵ
ɫɜɟɪɯɧɨɜɵɯ ɡɜɺɡɞ, ɝɚɦɦɚ-ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɢ, ɫɥɭɱɚɣɧɵɣ ɮɚɡɨɜɵɣ ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞ ɜɚɤɭɭɦɚ); (2)
ɚɧɬɪɨɩɨɝɟɧɧɵɟ ɍɋ (ɹɞɟɪɧɚɹ ɜɨɣɧɚ, ɛɢɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ, ɢɫɤɭɫɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɣ ɢɧɬɟɥɥɟɤɬ,
ɧɚɧɨɬɟɯɧɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɪɢɫɤɢ); (3) ɩɪɨɦɟɠɭɬɨɱɧɵɟ ɍɋ, ɜɵɡɵɜɚɟɦɵɟ ɜɡɚɢɦɨɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɟɦ
ɱɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɢ ɩɪɢɪɨɞɵ (ɧɨɜɵɟ ɛɨɥɟɡɧɢ, ɧɟɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɟɧɧɨ ɪɚɫɬɭɳɟɟ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɟ ɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɟ).
Ⱦɚɥɟɟ, ɦɵ ɜ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɦ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɦ ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɟ ɍɋ [8].
ɐɟɥɶɸ ɞɚɧɧɨɣ ɫɬɚɬɶɢ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɨɜ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ,
ɜɥɢɹɸɳɢɯ ɧɚ ɨɰɟɧɤɭ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɍɋ ɢ ɫɩɨɫɨɛɧɵɯ ɩɪɢɜɧɟɫɬɢ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɟ
ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟ ɜ ɚɧɚɥɢɡ ɪɢɫɤɨɜ1
. Ⱥɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɟ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɨɛɴɹɫɧɟɧɚ ɱɟɪɟɡ ɮɨɪɦɭ
ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟ ɜ ɜɵɛɨɪɤɟ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɨɜ, ɩɪɢ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɣ ɜɵɛɢɪɚɟɬɫɹ ɩɨɞɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɨ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɨɜ,
ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɨ ɫɜɹɡɚɧɧɵɯ ɫ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɦ, ɜɦɟɫɬɨ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɚ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ, ɩɨɥɧɨɫɬɶɸ
ɨɯɜɚɬɵɜɚɸɳɟɝɨ ɩɪɟɞɦɟɬɧɭɸ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɶ. Ɇɵ ɩɨɤɚɡɵɜɚɟɦ, ɱɬɨ ɷɮɮɟɤɬ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɣ
ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ ɞɟɥɚɟɬ ɧɟɧɚɞɺɠɧɵɦɢ ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɩɪɨɲɥɵɯ ɍɋ. Ɇɵ
ɭɬɜɟɪɠɞɚɟɦ, ɱɬɨ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɟ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɩɪɢɜɟɫɬɢ ɤ ɧɟɞɨɨɰɟɧɤɟ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɪɹɞɚ
ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ.
1
Ⱦɥɹ ɨɛɡɨɪɚ ɥɢɬɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɨɛ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɵɯ ɩɪɢɧɰɢɩɚɯ ɢ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɦ ɦɵɲɥɟɧɢɢ, ɫɦ. Barrow and Tipler; Balashov;
and Bostrom [56-58].
3. Ɇɵ ɪɚɫɩɢɫɵɜɚɟɦ ɩɪɨɫɬɭɸ «ɤɚɪɦɚɧɧɭɸ» ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɷɬɢɯ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɨɜ ɜɨ ɜɬɨɪɨɣ ɱɚɫɬɢ ɫɬɚɬɶɢ,
ɬɨɝɞɚ ɤɚɤ ɟɺ ɨɛɨɛɳɟɧɢɟ ɧɚɯɨɞɢɬɫɹ ɜ ɬɪɟɬɶɟɣ ɱɚɫɬɢ. Ⱥɪɝɭɦɟɧɬɚɰɢɹ ɪɚɡɜɢɜɚɟɬɫɹ ɜ ɱɟɬɜɺɪɬɨɣ
ɱɚɫɬɢ, ɚ ɜ ɩɹɬɨɣ ɦɵ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɦ ɚɤɬɭɚɥɶɧɨɫɬɶ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɝɨ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɹ ɞɥɹ ɪɹɞɚ ɍɋ. ȼ
ɩɨɫɥɟɞɧɟɣ, ɲɟɫɬɨɣ ɱɚɫɬɢ ɦɵ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɦ ɜɨɩɪɨɫɵ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɬɟɨɪɢɢ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɨɜ
ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ ɤ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɦ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɚɦ.
2. «Ʉɚɪɦɚɧɧɚɹ» ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɝɨ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɹ2
Ɉɫɧɨɜɨɣ ɧɚɲɟɝɨ ɩɨɞɯɨɞɚ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ Ȼɚɣɟɫɨɜɚ ɮɨɪɦɭɥɚ ɪɚɫɱɟɬɚ ɭɫɥɨɜɧɨɣ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ:
10. EBP i | ± ɭɫɥɨɜɧɨɣ
ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶɸ ɢɫɬɢɧɧɨɫɬɢ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡɵ iB ɩɪɢ ɫɜɢɞɟɬɟɥɶɫɬɜɟ
£
. ȼ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɫɜɢɞɟɬɟɥɶɫɬɜɚ ɦɵ
ɛɭɞɟɦ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɬɶ ɫɚɦ ɮɚɤɬ ɧɚɲɟɝɨ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɹ. Ɏɚɤɬ ɧɚɲɟɝɨ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɹ
ɬɪɟɛɭɟɬ ɞɥɹ ɫɟɛɹ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɨ ɛɢɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ, ɯɢɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢ ɮɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɟɞɩɨɫɵɥɨɤ. ȼ
ɱɚɫɬɧɨɫɬɢ, ɧɚɲɟ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɩɨɞɪɚɡɭɦɟɜɚɟɬ, ɱɬɨ ɰɟɩɨɱɤɚ ɡɟɦɧɨɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɧɟ ɛɵɥɚ
ɩɪɟɪɜɚɧɚ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɨɣ. ɋ ɷɬɢɦ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɟɦ ɫɜɹɡɚɧɵ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɧɟɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɺɧɧɨɫɬɢ,
ɱɚɫɬɶ ɢɡ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɦɵ ɞɨɥɠɧɵ ɨɛɫɭɞɢɬɶ ɞɚɥɟɟ. Ƚɢɩɨɬɟɡɵ B1, B2, , Bn ɨɛɨɡɧɚɱɚɸɬ
ɩɪɨɢɡɨɲɟɞɲɢɟ ɢɥɢ ɧɟ ɩɪɨɢɡɨɲɟɞɲɢɟ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɺɧɧɨɝɨ ɬɢɩɚ, ɫɥɭɱɢɜɲɢɟɫɹ ɡɚ
ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɺɧɧɵɣ ɩɪɨɦɟɠɭɬɨɤ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ; ɩɪɢɦɟɪɚɦɢ ɩɨɞɨɛɧɵɯ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡ ɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹ: ɉɪɨɢɡɨɲɥɨ
ɧɟ ɦɟɧɟɟ ɩɹɬɢ ɫɥɭɱɚɟɜ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ Ɂɟɦɥɢ ɫ ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɚɦɢ ɢɥɢ ɤɨɦɟɬɚɦɢ ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧɨɣ ɨɬ 10
ɞɨ 20 ɤɦ ɡɚ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɧɢɟ 8
10 ɥɟɬ», ɢɥɢ: Ɂɚ ɩɪɨɦɟɠɭɬɨɤ ɨɬ 7
102v ɞɨ 6
105v ɞɨ ɧɚɫɬɨɹɳɟɝɨ
ɦɨɦɟɧɬɚ ɢ ɧɟ ɛɥɢɠɟ ɱɟɦ 10 ɩɚɪɫɟɤ ɞɨ ɋɨɥɧɰɚ, ɧɟ ɩɪɨɢɫɯɨɞɢɥɨ ɧɢ ɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɜɡɪɵɜɚ
ɫɜɟɪɯɧɨɜɨɣ ɡɜɟɡɞɵ».
Ɋɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɢɦ ɩɪɨɫɬɟɣɲɢɣ ɩɪɢɦɟɪ: ɢɫɤɥɸɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɪɚɡɪɭɲɢɬɟɥɶɧɭɸ ɢ ɟɞɢɧɢɱɧɭɸ
ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɭɸ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɭ, ± ɩɨɞ ɷɬɢ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɹ ɩɨɞɯɨɞɢɬ ɢɡɜɟɪɠɟɧɢɟ ɫɭɩɟɪɜɭɥɤɚɧɚ Ɍɨɛɚ [9].
ɋɜɢɞɟɬɟɥɶɫɬɜɨ, ɤɨɬɨɪɨɟ ɦɵ ɯɨɬɢɦ ɭɱɟɫɬɶ ɫ ɩɨɦɨɳɶɸ Ȼɚɣɟɫɨɜɨɝɨ ɩɨɞɯɨɞɚ, ± ɷɬɨ ɮɚɤɬ
ɧɚɲɟɝɨ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɜ ɧɚɫɬɨɹɳɭɸ ɷɩɨɯɭ. ɇɚ Ɋɢɫ. 1 ɦɵ ɫɯɟɦɚɬɢɱɧɨ ɨɬɨɛɪɚɡɢɥɢ ɷɬɭ
ɫɢɬɭɚɰɢɸ: P ± ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɚɹ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɧɟɤɨɣ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ, Q ± ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ
ɜɵɠɢɜɚɧɢɹ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɩɨɫɥɟ ɷɬɨɣ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ. Ɇɵ ɞɨɥɠɧɵ ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɨɠɢɬɶ, ɱɬɨ ɷɬɢ ɞɜɟ
ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ: (1) ɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹ ɤɨɧɫɬɚɧɬɚɦɢ, (2) ɞɨɥɠɧɵɦ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɦ ɧɨɪɦɚɥɢɡɨɜɚɧɵ ɢ (3)
ɨɬɧɨɫɹɬɫɹ ɤ ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɺɧɧɨɦɭ ɢɧɬɟɪɜɚɥɭ ɜ ɩɪɨɲɥɨɦ. ɋɨɛɵɬɢɟ 2
¤
ɨɛɨɡɧɚɱɚɟɬ , ɱɬɨ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɚ
ɩɪɨɢɫɯɨɞɢɬ, ɚ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɟ 1
¤
± ɱɬɨ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɚ ɧɟ ɩɪɨɢɫɯɨɞɢɬ, ɩɨɞ E ɦɵ ɨɛɨɡɧɚɱɚɟɦ
ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɸ ɨ ɧɚɲɟɦ ɫɨɛɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɦ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɢ.
2
ɇɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɩɪɟɞɵɞɭɳɢɟ ɧɚɯɨɞɤɢ, ɨɬɧɨɫɹɳɢɟɫɹ ɤ ɷɬɨɣ ɱɚɫɬɢ, ɩɨɤɚɡɚɧɵ ɭ ɑɢɪɤɨɜɢɱɚ [59].
11. Ɋɢɫ. 1. ɋɯɟɦɚɬɢɱɧɨɟ ɢɡɨɛɪɚɠɟɧɢɟ ɧɚɲɟɣ ɤɚɪɦɚɧɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɟɞɢɧɢɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹ. P ± ɷɬɨ
ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɚɹ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ, Q ± ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɜɵɠɢɜɚɧɢɹ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɬɜɚ, E ± ɮɚɤɬ ɧɚɲɟɝɨ
ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɜ ɧɚɫɬɨɹɳɢɣ ɦɨɦɟɧɬ.
Ⱦɥɹ ɷɬɨɝɨ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɚ Ȼɚɣɟɫɨɜɚ ɮɨɪɦɭɥɚ ɩɪɢɧɢɦɚɟɬ ɜɢɞ:
23. Q
PQP
EBP
P
!!
1
|2
L . (5)
ɑɟɦ ɛɨɥɶɲɟ ɫɬɚɧɨɜɢɬɫɹ Ș (ɧɚɱɢɧɚɹ ɫ ɟɞɢɧɢɰɵ), ɬɟɦ ɧɚɲɢ ɭɦɨɡɚɤɥɸɱɟɧɢɹ ɨ ɩɪɨɲɥɨɦ
ɫɬɚɧɨɜɹɬɫɹ ɜɫɺ ɛɨɥɟɟ ɧɟɧɚɞɟɠɧɵɦɢ, ɢ ɦɵ ɧɟɞɨɨɰɟɧɢɜɚɟɦ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɛɭɞɭɳɢɯ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ.
ɇɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɜɨɡɶɦɺɦ Q=0.1 ɢ P=0.5 (ɢɥɢ ɩɪɨɢɡɨɣɞɺɬ, ɢɥɢ ɧɟ ɩɪɨɢɡɨɣɞɺɬ ɫ ɪɚɜɧɨɣ
ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶɸ), ɞɥɹ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ, ɫɪɚɜɧɢɦɵɯ ɩɨ ɪɚɡɦɟɪɭ ɫ ɢɡɜɟɪɠɟɧɢɟɦ Ɍɨɛɚ; ɬɚɤɠɟ ɩɪɢɦɟɦ,
ɱɬɨ ɜɨ ɜɪɟɦɹ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɷɬɢ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹ ɫɥɭɱɚɸɬɫɹ ɨɞɢɧ ɪɚɡ ɜ ɦɢɥɥɢɨɧ )10( 6
ɥɟɬ
)(
¦
yr ɫ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶɸ ɜɵɠɢɜɚɧɢɹ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɩɪɢ ɤɚɠɞɨɦ ɢɡ ɧɢɯ ɪɚɜɧɨɣ 0.1. ɋ ɷɬɢɦɢ
ɜɪɟɦɹ
24. ɭɫɥɨɜɢɹɦɢ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬ ɫɚɦɨɭɜɟɪɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ 5.5!L , ɱɬɨ ɨɡɧɚɱɚɟɬ ± ɪɟɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ
ɩɪɟɜɵɲɚɟɬ ɧɚɲɭ ɩɟɪɜɨɧɚɱɚɥɶɧɭɸ ɨɰɟɧɤɭ ɜ 5.5 ɪɚɡ. Ɂɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɚ
ɫɚɦɨɭɜɟɪɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ, ɜ ɜɢɞɟ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɢ ɬɹɠɟɫɬɢ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɣ (ɩɪɢ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɹ 1±Q),
ɩɨɤɚɡɚɧɵ ɧɚ Ɋɢɫ. 2.
Ɍɚɤɠɟ ɭɱɬɢɬɟ,
g!
p
L
0
lim
Q
. (6)
Ɋɢɫ. 2. Ʉɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬ ɫɚɦɨɭɜɟɪɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ ɜ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɢ ɨɬ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɹ 1±Q ɜ ɧɚɲɟɣ
ɤɚɪɦɚɧɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɟɞɢɧɢɱɧɨɝɨ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹ. Ʉ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɦ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹɦ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ P ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟɧɨ ɰɜɟɬɨɜɨɟ
ɤɨɞɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɟ (ɰɜɟɬɚ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɢɦɵ ɜ ɷɥɟɤɬɪɨɧɧɨɣ ɜɟɪɫɢɢ). Ɇɵ ɡɚɦɟɬɢɥɢ, ɱɬɨ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟ ɨɬ ɫɚɦɨɭɜɟɪɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ
ɜɵɲɟ ɜɫɟɝɨ ɞɥɹ ɦɚɥɨɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɵɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ.
Ʉɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬ ɫɚɦɨɭɜɟɪɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɬɚɧɨɜɢɬɫɹ ɨɱɟɧɶ ɛɨɥɶɲɢɦ ɞɥɹ ɱɪɟɡɜɵɱɚɣɧɨ
ɪɚɡɪɭɲɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ. ȼ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ, ɦɵ ɧɟ ɞɨɥɠɧɵ ɛɵɬɶ ɭɜɟɪɟɧɵ ɜ ɢɫɬɨɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ
ɨɰɟɧɤɚɯ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ, ɩɪɢɜɨɞɹɳɢɯ ɤ ɛɟɡɭɫɥɨɜɧɨɦɭ ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɸ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɬɜɚ
(Q=0). ɉɭɫɬɶ ɷɬɨɬ ɜɵɜɨɞ ɢ ɜɵɝɥɹɞɢɬ ɨɱɟɜɢɞɧɵɦ, ɲɢɪɨɤɨɝɨ ɩɪɢɡɧɚɧɢɹ ɨɧ ɧɟ ɩɨɥɭɱɢɥ.
ɇɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɲɢɪɨɤɨ ɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɚɹ ɚɪɝɭɦɟɧɬɚɰɢɹ ɏɚɬɚ ɢ Ɋɢɫɚ (Hut and Rees), ɪɚɛɨɬɚɸɳɢɯ ɫ
ɝɢɩɨɬɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɦ ɪɢɫɤɨɦ ɤɜɚɧɬɨɜɨɣ ɧɟɭɫɬɨɣɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɜɚɤɭɭɦɚ ɜ ɷɤɫɩɟɪɢɦɟɧɬɚɯ ɮɢɡɢɤɢ
ɜɵɫɨɤɢɯ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɣ, ɧɟ ɭɱɢɬɵɜɚɟɬ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɹ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɝɨ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɹ, ɢɡ-ɡɚ ɱɟɝɨ ɱɚɫɬɢɱɧɨ
ɜɜɨɞɢɬ ɜ ɡɚɛɥɭɠɞɟɧɢɟ [10].
ɗɬɢ ɪɚɫɫɭɠɞɟɧɢɹ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɢɦɵ ɤ ɢɫɤɥɸɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɪɟɞɤɢɦ, ɧɨ, ɬɟɦ ɧɟ ɦɟɧɟɟ,
ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɵɦ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹɦ, ɩɪɢɦɟɪɨɦ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹ ɫɬɪɚɧɧɵɟ ɚɫɬɪɨɧɨɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ
ɢɧɰɢɞɟɧɬɵ, ɫɩɨɫɨɛɧɵɟ ɫɨɪɜɚɬɶ Ɂɟɦɥɸ ɫ ɨɪɛɢɬɵ ɢ ɩɪɟɜɪɚɬɢɬɶ ɜ ɦɟɠɡɜɺɡɞɧɭɸ ɩɥɚɧɟɬɭ (ɫɦ.
Ʌɚɝɥɢɧ ɢ Ⱥɞɚɦɫ (Laughlin and Adams), ɨɰɟɧɢɜɚɸɳɢɯ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɩɨɞɨɛɧɨɝɨ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹ ɧɚ
ɨɫɬɚɜɲɟɟɫɹ ɜɪɟɦɹ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ [11]). ȼɵɜɨɞɵ ɨ ɱɪɟɡɜɵɱɚɣɧɨɣ
ɦɚɥɨɣ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɨɯɨɠɞɟɧɢɹ ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ ɧɟɩɨɞɚɥɺɤɭ ɨɬ ɞɪɭɝɨɣ ɡɜɺɡɞɧɨɣ
ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɹ
25. ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ, ɧɟɣɬɪɨɧɧɨɣ ɡɜɟɡɞɵ ɢɥɢ ɱɺɪɧɨɣ ɞɵɪɵ, ɚ ɡɧɚɱɢɬ ɢ ɱɪɟɡɜɵɱɚɣɧɨ ɦɚɥɵɯ ɪɢɫɤɨɜ
ɷɬɨɝɨ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹ, ɧɟ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɵ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɢɡ ɩɪɨɲɥɨɝɨ ɧɚɲɟɣ ɩɥɚɧɟɬɚɪɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ.
ɉɪɢɧɹɬɢɟ ɞɨɩɨɥɧɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɣ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ, ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɧɨɣ ɧɚ ɩɨɧɢɦɚɧɢɢ ɨɤɪɭɠɟɧɢɹ ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ
ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ ɜ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟ Ɇɥɟɱɧɨɝɨ ɉɭɬɢ ɢ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɚɯ ɦɚɫɫ ɡɜɺɡɞɧɵɯ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɨɜ,
ɩɨɡɜɨɥɹɟɬ ɧɚɦ ɡɚɤɥɸɱɢɬɶ, ɱɬɨ ɩɨ ɨɬɧɨɲɟɧɢɸ ɤ ɷɬɢɦ ɪɢɫɤɚɦ ɦɵ ɧɚɯɨɞɢɦɫɹ ɜ ɛɟɡɨɩɚɫɧɨɫɬɢ,
ɚ ɧɟ ɧɟɩɪɟɞɜɡɹɬɵ ɢ ɭɛɟɞɢɬɟɥɶɧɵ. ɋ ɞɪɭɝɨɣ ɫɬɨɪɨɧɵ, ɧɟ ɞɥɹ ɜɫɟɯ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɵɯ ɭɝɪɨɡ ɫɨɛɪɚɧɨ
ɞɨɫɬɚɬɨɱɧɨɟ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɞɨɩɨɥɧɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɣ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ.
3. Ɉɛɨɛɳɟɧɢɟ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ
Ʉɚɤ ɦɨɠɧɨ ɨɛɨɛɳɢɬɶ ɷɬɭ ɤɚɪɦɚɧɧɭɸ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɟɞɢɧɢɱɧɨɝɨ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹ ɞɥɹ ɫɟɪɢɢ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ?
Ɇɵ ɞɨɥɠɧɵ ɧɚɱɟɪɧɨ ɨɩɢɫɚɬɶ ɨɞɢɧ ɢɡ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɵɯ ɩɨɞɯɨɞɨɜ. Ⱦɨɩɭɫɬɢɦ, ɦɵ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɭɥɢɫɶ ɜ
ɫɢɬɭɚɰɢɟɣ ɢɡ Ɋɢɫ. 3.
Ɋɢɫ. 3. Ɋɹɞ ɩɨɬɟɧɰɢɚɥɶɧɨ ɥɟɬɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɛɟɞɫɬɜɢɣ ɢɡ ɩɪɨɲɥɨɝɨ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ ± ɨɛɨɛɳɟɧɢɟ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɧɧɨɣ ɜ Ɋɢɫ. 1.
ɫɢɬɭɚɰɢɢ.
Ɉɛɨɡɧɚɱɢɦ Į ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɭɸ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ, ɚ ȕ ± ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɬɨɝɨ, ɱɬɨ ɨɧɚ
ɩɪɢɜɟɞɺɬ ɤ ɨɤɨɧɱɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɦɭ ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɸ ɠɢɡɧɢ ɧɚ Ɂɟɦɥɟ (ɜ ɞɟɬɚɥɹɯ ɷɬɨ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɨ ɜ
ɩɹɬɨɣ ɱɚɫɬɢ ɫɬɚɬɶɢ), ɢ N ± ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɵɯ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ. ɉɭɫɬɶ O ɨɛɨɡɧɚɱɚɟɬ ɮɚɤɬ
ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɹ (ɬɨ ɟɫɬɶ ɱɬɨ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɚ ɧɟ ɩɪɢɜɟɥɚ ɤ ɨɤɨɧɱɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɦɭ
ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɸ) ɢ k ± ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɦɵɯ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ. ɉɨɤɚ N ɢ Į ɧɟɜɟɥɢɤɢ3
, ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ
ɬɨɝɨ, ɱɬɨ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɶ ɨɛɧɚɪɭɠɢɬ k ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ ɜ ɫɜɨɺɦ ɩɪɨɲɥɨɦ, ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɵɜɚɟɬɫɹ ɩɨ
ɮɨɪɦɭɥɟ:
28. kkNk
k
N
OkP FEEFE ¹
º
¸
©
ª
¨
!
11,|, . (7)
3
ɗɬɨ ɞɨɩɭɳɟɧɢɟ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɫɱɢɬɚɬɶɫɹ ɪɚɛɨɱɟɣ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡɨɣ, ɧɨ ɢɧɬɟɪɩɪɟɬɢɪɭɹ ɧɚɲɢ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ (ɢɡ ɩɹɬɨɣ ɱɚɫɬɢ
ɫɬɚɬɶɢ) ɩɪɢ ɪɚɫɫɱɺɬɟ ɧɚɫɬɨɹɳɢɯ ɭɝɪɨɡ, ɦɵ ɞɨɥɠɧɵ ɧɚɣɬɢ ɢɦ ɮɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɨɟ ɩɨɞɬɜɟɪɠɞɟɧɢɟ. Ɇɨɠɧɨ ɜɨɡɪɚɡɢɬɶ,
ɱɬɨ ɧɟɛɨɥɶɲɨɣ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɟ N ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɱɭɬɶ ɥɢ ɧɟ ɧɟɨɬɴɟɦɥɢɦɨɣ ɱɚɫɬɶɸ ɪɚɡɝɨɜɨɪɨɜ ɨ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɭɝɪɨɡɚɯ.
Ⱦɚɥɶɧɟɣɲɚɹ ɪɚɛɨɬɚ ɬɪɟɛɭɟɬɫɹ ɞɥɹ ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ, ɜɥɢɹɸɳɢɯ ɧɚ ɫɬɟɩɟɧɶ ɞɨɫɬɨɜɟɪɧɨɫɬɢ ɞɢɫɤɭɫɫɢɣ ɨ
ɜɪɟɦɟɧɵɯ «ɫɥɨɬɚɯ» ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɢɱɧɵɯ ɢɧɰɢɞɟɧɬɨɜ.
1 2 ... ɇɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɢ
Ȼɟɞɫɬɜɢɟ 1 Ȼɟɞɫɬɜɢɟ 2 Ȼɟɞɫɬɜɢɟ N
Ɉɤɨɧɱɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɟ
ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɟ
Ɉɤɨɧɱɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɟ
ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɟ
Ɉɤɨɧɱɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɟ
ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɟ
Į
ȕ
1-Į
1-ȕ Į
ȕ
1-Į
1-ȕĮ
ȕ
1-Į
1-ȕ
46. ! !
¹
º
¸
©
ª
¨
!!
N
k
N
k
kkNk
k
N
kOPOP
0 0
11,|,,| FEEFEFE , (10)
ȿɫɥɢ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɬɶ ɚɧɫɚɦɛɥɶ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɵɯ ɦɢɪɨɜ ɷɬɨ ɨɡɧɚɱɚɟɬ ɩɥɨɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ.
Ɇɵ ɦɨɠɟɦ ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɨɠɢɬɶ, ɱɬɨ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɭɸɬ ɪɹɞ ɡɟɦɥɟɩɨɞɨɛɧɵɯ ɩɥɚɧɟɬ ɫɨ ɫɥɟɞɭɸɳɢɦɢ
ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɚɦɢ: ɬɨɱɧɨ ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɺɧɧɵɣ ɜɨɡɪɚɫɬ, ɧɚɥɢɱɢɟ ɛɢɨɫɮɟɪɵ, ɧɨ ɩɨɞɜɟɪɠɟɧɧɵɯ
ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɦ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɦɢ ɢ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɦɢ ɭɝɪɨɡɚɦɢ [12]. ɇɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɩɪɢ N=4,
ɭɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɟ (10) ɜɵɱɢɫɥɹɟɬ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɜɵɠɢɜɚɧɢɹ, ɞɚɥɟɟ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɧɧɭɸ ɧɚ Ɋɢɫ. 4. ɉɪɢ k=0 ɭ
ɧɚɫ ɧɟɬ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ ɨɛ ɨɩɚɫɧɨɫɬɢ ɛɟɞɫɬɜɢɹ, ɬɚɤɢɦ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɦ, ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɟɣ
ɩɨɫɬɨɹɧɧɨ ɩɨ ɨɬɧɨɲɟɧɢɸ ɤ ɨɫɢ ȕ. Ⱦɥɹ ɛɨɥɶɲɢɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ k ɭɦɟɧɶɲɚɟɬɫɹ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɧɚɹ
ɦɟɪɚ ɜɵɫɨɤɢɯ ȕ, ɬɚɤ ɤɚɤ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ ɫɬɚɧɨɜɹɬɫɹ ɞɨɫɬɚɬɨɱɧɨ ɨɛɵɱɧɵɦɢ ɢ ɩɨɬɨɦɭ ɧɟ ɦɨɝɭɬ
ɛɵɬɶ ɫɥɢɲɤɨɦ ɬɹɠɺɥɵɦɢ. Ⱦɥɹ ɱɚɫɬɧɨɝɨ ɫɥɭɱɚɹ, N=4, k=2, ɧɚ Ɋɢɫ. 5. ɦɵ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɥɢ
ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɞɥɹ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ (Į, ȕ). ɉɨɯɨɠɟ ɜɵɝɥɹɞɹɬ ɫɥɭɱɚɢ ɢ ɫ ɛɨɥɶɲɢɦɢ
ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹɦɢ N.
P(ȼɵɠɢɜɚɧɢɟ|Į,ȕ)
47. Ɋɢɫ. 4. ȼɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ P(O|Į,ȕ) ɞɥɹ N=4 ɤɚɪɦɚɧɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɜ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɢ ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɨɣ
ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ Į ɢ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɹ ȕ. Ⱦɥɹ Į=ȕ=0 ɦɢɪ ɛɟɡɨɩɚɫɟɧ ɢ ɩɥɨɬɧɨɫɬɶ
ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɚ; ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ ɭɦɟɧɶɲɚɟɬɫɹ ɩɪɢ ɩɨɜɵɲɟɧɢɢ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɥɸɛɨɝɨ ɢɡ ɷɬɢɯ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɨɜ.
Ɋɢɫ. 5. ȼɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ P(Į, ȕ | O, k) ɩɪɢ N=4, k=2.
ɋɥɟɞɭɸɳɢɦ ɲɚɝɨɦ ɩɨ ɷɬɨɦɭ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɸ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɤɚ ɢɦɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ,
ɝɟɧɟɪɢɪɭɸɳɟɣ ɛɨɥɶɲɨɟ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɩɥɚɧɟɬ ɞɥɹ ɤɚɠɞɨɝɨ Į, ȕ ɢ ɡɚɩɭɫɤ N ɷɤɫɩɟɪɢɦɟɧɬɨɜ,
ɝɞɟ ɫ ɤɚɠɞɵɦ ɦɢɪɨɦ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɫɥɭɱɢɬɶɫɹ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɚ. ɉɨɞɨɛɧɨɟ ɢɦɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɟ
ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɛɵɥɨ ɩɪɨɜɟɞɟɧɨ ɢ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɛɭɞɭɬ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɧɵ ɜ ɫɥɟɞɭɸɳɟɣ
ɫɬɚɬɶɟ. ɍɠɟ ɩɨɧɹɬɧɨ, ɱɬɨ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɨɜ ɦɟɠɞɭ ɜɵɠɢɜɲɢɦɢ ɛɭɞɭɬ ɫɢɥɶɧɨ
ɩɪɟɞɜɡɹɬɵɦɢ. ɍɱɢɬɵɜɚɹ, ɱɬɨ ɧɚɦɢ ɭɠɟ ɧɚɤɨɩɥɟɧɵ ɡɧɚɧɢɹ ɷɦɩɢɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢ ɱɚɫɬɢɱɧɨ-
ɷɦɩɢɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɨɛ ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɺɧɧɵɯ ɤɥɚɫɫɚɯ ɭɝɪɨɡ ɢ ɨɝɪɨɦɧɭɸ ɩɪɢɤɥɚɞɧɭɸ
ɜɚɠɧɨɫɬɶ ɩɨɢɫɤɚ ɥɸɛɨɝɨ ɬɢɩɚ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɹ ɜ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɭɝɪɨɡ [13], ɤɚɤ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɦɵ ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɢɦ,
ɤɚɤɢɟ ɢɦɟɧɧɨ ɪɚɡɞɟɥɵ ɡɧɚɧɢɹ ɩɨɞɜɟɪɠɟɧɵ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɦɭ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɸ, ɩɨɬɪɟɛɭɟɬɫɹ ɩɪɨɜɟɫɬɢ
ɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɟ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɣ ɷɬɨɣ ɫɮɟɪɵ.
4. Ⱥɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɟ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟ: ɧɟɞɨɨɰɟɧɤɚ ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɭɝɪɨɡ
ɍɱɺɧɵɟ, ɚɧɚɥɢɡɢɪɭɸɳɢɟ ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɟ ɭɝɪɨɡɵ, ɬɪɚɞɢɰɢɨɧɧɨ ɤɨɧɫɬɪɭɢɪɭɸɬ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɢ
ɷɦɩɢɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ, ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɭɹ ɫɜɢɞɟɬɟɥɶɫɬɜɚ ɨ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹɯ ɩɪɨɲɥɨɝɨ:
ɝɟɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɫɜɢɞɟɬɟɥɶɫɬɜɚ ɨ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɹɯ ɫ ɜɧɟɡɟɦɧɵɦɢ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɚɦɢ, ɜɡɪɵɜɚɯ
ɫɜɟɪɯɧɨɜɵɯ ɢ ɝɚɦɦɚ-ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɨɜ, ɢɥɢ ɢɡɜɟɪɠɟɧɢɹɯ ɫɭɩɟɪɜɭɥɤɚɧɨɜ. ȼ Ȼɚɣɟɫɨɜɨɦ ɩɨɞɯɨɞɟ ɦɵ
ɦɨɠɟɦ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɬɶ ɷɬɢ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɨ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɢ ɪɢɫɤɨɜ ɜ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɢ
ɚɩɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ.
ɉɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɭɹ ɛɭɞɭɳɢɟ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹ, ɦɵ ɡɚɢɧɬɟɪɟɫɨɜɚɧɵ ɜ «ɪɟɚɥɶɧɵɯ» ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹɯ ɲɚɧɫɨɜ
ɧɚɫɬɭɩɥɟɧɢɹ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ (ɢɥɢ ɢɯ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɣ), ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ «ɩɪɟɞɥɨɠɟɧɵ ɉɪɢɪɨɞɨɣ» ɢ ɧɟ
48. ɨɛɹɡɚɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɫɜɹɡɚɧɵ ɫ ɢɯ ɚɩɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɧɵɦɢ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹɦɢ, ɡɚɮɢɤɫɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɦɢ ɢɥɢ
ɩɨɞɪɚɡɭɦɟɜɚɟɦɵɦɢ ɜ ɚɪɯɢɜɧɵɯ ɡɚɩɢɫɹɯ. Ɏɭɧɤɰɢɹ ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ
ɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɣ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɢɜɧɨɣ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ. Ɍɚɤ ɤɚɤ ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɨɟ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɧɟ
ɢɫɤɚɠɚɟɬɫɹ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɚɦɢ ɜɵɛɨɪɨɱɧɨɣ ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ, ɨɧɨ ɢɝɪɚɟɬ ɤɥɸɱɟɜɭɸ ɪɨɥɶ ɜ
ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɛɭɞɭɳɢɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ. ȼ Ɍɚɛɥɢɰɟ I ɩɨɤɚɡɚɧɚ ɜɡɚɢɦɨɫɜɹɡɶ ɦɟɠɞɭ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɹɦɢ
ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɨɝɨ ɢ ɚɩɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ ɞɥɹ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ.
Ɍɨɥɶɤɨ ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɨɟ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɢɫɬɢɧɧɨ ɨɩɢɫɵɜɚɟɬ ɩɪɢɪɨɞɭ ɢ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɨ
ɞɥɹ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɛɭɞɭɳɢɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ. ɉɨɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɶ ɭɦɨɡɚɤɥɸɱɟɧɢɣ ɢɡ ɩɪɨɲɥɨɝɨ
ɜ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɟ ɞɥɹ ɷɬɢɯ ɞɜɭɯ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɣ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɧɚ ɜ Ɋɢɫ. 6.
Ɍɢɩ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹ Ⱥɩɪɢɨɪɧɨɟ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɗɦɩɢɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɟ (ɚɩɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɧɨɟ)
ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ
ɋɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɟ Ɋɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ Ɉɤɨɥɨɡɟɦɧɵɯ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɨɜ ɢ
ɩɟɪɟɫɟɤɚɸɳɢɯ ɨɪɛɢɬɭ Ɂɟɦɥɢ ɤɨɦɟɬ
Ɋɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɨɜ ɨɬ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ,
ɢɦɩɚɤɬɢɬɨɜ, ɢ ɬ.ɩ.
ɋɭɩɟɪɜɭɥɤɚɧ Ɋɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɝɟɨɮɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ «ɝɨɪɹɱɢɯ
ɬɨɱɟɤ», ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞɹɳɢɯ ɫɜɟɪɯɢɡɜɟɪɠɟɧɢɹ
Ɋɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɤɚɥɶɞɟɪ, ɜɭɥɤɚɧɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ
ɩɵɥɢ, ɤɟɪɧɨɜ ɥɶɞɚ ɢ ɬ.ɩ.
ȼɡɪɵɜ ɫɜɟɪɯɧɨɜɨɣ
ɢɥɢ ɝɚɦɦɚ-ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤ
(ɫɦ. ɉɪɢɥɨɠɟɧɢɟ)
Ɋɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɢɫɯɨɞɧɵɯ ɱɚɫɬɢɰ ɢ ɢɯ
ɞɜɢɠɟɧɢɹ ɜ ɨɤɨɥɨɫɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɦ
ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟ
ɋɥɟɞɵ ɝɟɨɦɚɝɧɢɬɧɵɯ ɚɧɨɦɚɥɢɣ,
ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɡɜɺɡɞɧɵɯ ɨɫɬɚɬɤɨɜ
Ɍɚɛɥɢɰɚ I. ɉɪɢɦɟɪɵ ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɭɝɪɨɡ, ɦɨɝɭɳɢɯ ɩɪɢɜɟɫɬɢ ɤ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɟ, ɢ ɞɜɚ ɬɢɩɚ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɣ
ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ; ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɨɟ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɫɥɭɠɢɬɶ ɢɫɬɢɧɧɵɦ ɨɩɢɫɚɧɢɟɦ ɩɪɢɪɨɞɵ ɢ,
ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ, ɢɫɬɨɱɧɢɤɨɦ ɞɥɹ ɩɪɟɞɫɤɚɡɚɧɢɹ ɛɭɞɭɳɢɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ.
Ɋɢɫ. 6. ɇɚɛɪɨɫɨɤ ɨɛɳɟɩɪɢɧɹɬɨɣ ɩɪɨɰɟɞɭɪɵ ɞɥɹ ɩɪɟɞɫɤɚɡɚɧɢɹ ɛɭɞɭɳɢɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ, ɢɫɯɨɞɹ ɢɡ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ ɨ
ɩɪɨɲɥɨɦ. ɉɪɨɰɟɞɭɪɚ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɬɶɫɹ ɤɚɤ ɞɥɹ ɧɟɨɩɚɫɧɵɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ, ɬɚɤ ɢ ɭɝɪɨɡ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɹ, ɧɨ
ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɞɥɹ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɧɢɯ ɦɵ ɞɨɥɠɧɵ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɹɬɶ ɤɨɪɪɟɤɰɢɸ, ɜɵɞɟɥɟɧɧɭɸ ɲɬɪɢɯɨɜɚɧɧɨɣ ɥɢɧɢɟɣ. Ⱦɚɧɧɵɟ
ɜɵɞɟɥɟɧɧɵɟ ɲɚɝɢ ɨɛɵɱɧɨ ɧɟ ɜɵɩɨɥɧɹɸɬɫɹ ɩɪɢ ɫɬɚɧɞɚɪɬɧɨɦ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɪɢɫɤɨɜ; ɬɟɦ ɧɟ ɦɟɧɟɟ, ɨɧɢ ɧɟɨɛɯɨɞɢɦɵ
ɞɥɹ ɧɟɩɪɟɞɜɡɹɬɵɯ ɩɪɟɞɫɤɚɡɚɧɢɣ ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧ ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɍɋ.
Ʉɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ, ɩɪɟɜɵɲɚɸɳɢɟ ɧɟɤɢɣ ɩɨɪɨɝ ɬɹɠɟɫɬɢ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɣ, ɭɧɢɱɬɨɠɚɸɬ ɜɫɟɯ
ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ ɢ ɜɫɟ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɹ ɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɹ ɞɥɹ ɩɨɜɬɨɪɧɨɝɨ ɜɨɡɧɢɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɹ
ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ, ɢ ɬɚɤɢɦ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɦ, ɧɟɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɦɵ. ɇɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɬɢɩɵ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ ɦɨɝɭɬ
ɉɪɨɲɥɨɟ
Ⱥɪɯɢɜɧɵɟ ɡɚɩɢɫɢ
ɗɦɩɢɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɟ
(ɚɩɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɧɨɟ)
ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ
Ɍɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɟ
(ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɨɟ)
ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ
ɉɪɟɞɫɤɚɡɚɧɢɟ
Ȼɭɞɭɳɟɟ
ɉɨɜɥɢɹɥɨ ɧɚ
ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ
ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ?
ɂɫɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɢɡ-
ɡɚ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɝɨ
ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɹ
ɇɟɬ
Ⱦɚ
49. ɭɧɢɱɬɨɠɢɬɶ ɩɥɚɧɟɬɚɪɧɵɟ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɹ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ ɧɚ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɨɣ ɢɧɬɟɪɜɚɥ,
ɞɥɢɧɚ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɝɨ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɤɨɪɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɬɶ ɫ ɫɢɥɨɣ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ4
. ɗɬɨ ɨɡɧɚɱɚɟɬ, ɱɬɨ ɚɪɯɢɜɧɵɟ
ɡɚɩɢɫɢ ɫɨɞɟɪɠɚɬ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɱɚɫɬɶ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ, ɥɟɠɚɳɢɯ ɜɧɭɬɪɢ «ɝɪɚɧɢɰ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɣ
ɫɨɜɦɟɫɬɢɦɨɫɬɢ» (ɫɦ. Ɋɢɫ. 7) ɢ ɧɟ ɨɬɨɛɪɚɠɚɸɬ ɜɫɺ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɨ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ. ɑɚɫɬɶ
ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɚ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɨɜ ɜɨɜɧɟ ɷɬɢɯ ɝɪɚɧɢɰ, ɥɟɠɢɬ ɜ ɬɚɤ ɧɚɡɵɜɚɟɦɨɣ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɣ ɬɟɧɢ:
ɫɤɪɵɬɵɣ ɷɮɮɟɤɬ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ ɧɟ ɩɨɡɜɨɥɹɟɬ ɧɚɦ ɪɚɫɩɨɡɧɚɜɚɬɶ ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧɭ
ɛɥɢɡɤɢɯ ɧɚɦ ɷɤɫɬɪɟɦɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɭɝɪɨɡ (ɩɨ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɦ ɢ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɵɦ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɚɦ). ɗɬɚ ɬɟɧɶ
ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɢɫɬɨɱɧɢɤɨɦ ɨɲɢɛɤɢ, ɤɨɬɨɪɚɹ ɞɨɥɠɧɚ ɛɵɬɶ ɫɤɨɪɪɟɤɬɢɪɨɜɚɧɚ, ɤɨɝɞɚ ɦɵ ɫɬɪɟɦɢɦɫɹ
ɜɵɜɟɫɬɢ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɢɜɧɨɟ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɲɚɧɫɨɜ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɷɦɩɢɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ
ɩɪɨɲɥɵɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ.
Ɋɢɫ. 7. ɋɯɟɦɚ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɝɨ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɹ: ɦɵ ɧɟ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɥɢ ɜɫɸ ɩɥɨɫɤɨɫɬɶ ɝɪɚɮɢɤɚ ɜɪɟɦɹ-ɬɹɠɟɫɬɶ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɣ, ɚ
ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɪɟɝɢɨɧ, ɫɨɜɦɟɫɬɢɦɵɣ ɫ ɧɚɲɢɦ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɟɦ ɜ ɞɚɧɧɭɸ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬɧɭɸ ɷɩɨɯɭ (ɜɫɟ ɨɫɬɚɥɶɧɨɟ
ɧɚɯɨɞɢɬɫɹ ɜ «ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɣ ɬɟɧɢ» ± ɬɟɧɟɜɨɦ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɟ, ɫɦ. ɜ ɬɟɤɫɬɟ). ɇɵɧɟɲɧɹɹ ɷɩɨɯɚ ɨɬɦɟɱɟɧɚ t0, ɢ ɦɵ
ɨɬɫɱɢɬɵɜɚɟɦ ɜɪɟɦɹ ɫ ɦɨɦɟɧɬɚ ɮɨɪɦɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɧɚɲɟɣ ɩɥɚɧɟɬɵ.
Ⱥɧɬɪɨɩɧɚɹ ɬɟɧɶ ɫɤɥɚɞɵɜɚɟɬɫɹ ɫ «ɤɥɚɫɫɢɱɟɫɤɢɦ» ɷɮɮɟɤɬɨɦ ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ, ɩɪɢɦɟɧɢɦɵɦ ɤ
ɥɸɛɵɦ ɬɢɩɚɦ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ (ɢɫɱɟɡɧɨɜɟɧɢɟ ɫɥɟɞɨɜ ɫɬɚɪɵɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ ɢɡ-ɡɚ ɢɯ ɷɪɨɡɢɢ ɢɥɢ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ
ɜɢɞɨɜ ɭɜɟɥɢɱɟɧɢɹ ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɷɧɬɪɨɩɢɢ). Ⱦɚɠɟ ɩɨɫɥɟ ɤɨɪɪɟɤɰɢɢ ɤɥɚɫɫɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɨɜ
ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ ɩɭɬɺɦ ɤɨɧɫɬɪɭɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɷɦɩɢɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ (ɚɩɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɧɵɯ) ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɣ, ɞɥɹ
ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɢɹ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɶɧɨɣ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɢ ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ, ɧɟɨɛɯɨɞɢɦɚ ɞɨɩɨɥɧɢɬɟɥɶɧɚɹ
ɤɨɪɪɟɤɰɢɹ, ɢɫɩɪɚɜɥɹɸɳɚɹ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɟ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟ.
4
ɇɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɚɜɬɨɪɵ, ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨ ɧɚɩɨɥɨɜɢɧɭ ɜ ɲɭɬɤɭ, ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɨɠɢɥɢ, ɱɬɨ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɜɢɞɵ ɞɢɧɨɡɚɜɪɨɜ, ɩɟɪɟɞ
ɢɯ ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɟɦ 65 Myr ɧɚɡɚɞ [60, 61], ɦɨɝɥɢ ɨɛɥɚɞɚɬɶ ɢɧɬɟɥɥɟɤɬɨɦ. ɇɟ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɹ ɫɬɟɩɟɧɶ ɞɨɫɬɨɜɟɪɧɨɫɬɢ
ɷɬɢɯ ɭɦɨɡɪɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɢɣ, ɦɵ ɦɨɠɟɦ ɭɬɜɟɪɠɞɚɬɶ, ɱɬɨ ɜ ɩɨɞɨɛɧɨɣ ɜɨɨɛɪɚɠɚɟɦɨɣ ɫɢɬɭɚɰɢɢ, ɩɚɞɟɧɢɟ
ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɚ ɜ ɑɢɤɫɭɥɭɛ (ɟɫɥɢ ɷɬɨ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɛɵɥɨ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɨɣ ɦɚɫɫɨɜɨɝɨ ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɹ ɜ ɤɨɧɰɟ ɦɟɥɨɜɨɝɨ
ɩɟɪɢɨɞɚ) ɧɟ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɭɧɢɱɬɨɠɟɥɨ ɜɫɟɯ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ ɬɨɣ ɷɩɨɯɢ, ɧɨ ɟɳɺ ɫɞɟɥɚɥɨ ɩɥɚɧɟɬɭ ɧɟɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɣ ɞɥɹ
ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ ɧɚ (ɞɨɩɭɫɬɢɦ) 63 Myr. Ɉɱɟɜɢɞɧɨ, ɱɬɨ ɷɬɨ ɧɟ ɨɫɬɚɧɨɜɢɥɨ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɸ, ɧɚɱɢɧɚɹ ɨɬ
(ɞɨɩɭɫɬɢɦ) 1 Myr ɧɚɡɚɞ. ȼɨɩɪɨɫ ɜɨɫɫɬɚɧɨɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɩɨɫɥɟ ɦɚɫɫɨɜɨɝɨ ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɹ ɛɵɥ ɩɪɢɡɧɚɧ ɤɚɤ ɧɚɢɦɟɧɟɟ
ɩɨɧɹɬɵɣ ɜ ɩɚɥɟɨɧɬɨɥɨɝɢɢ ɢ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɨɣ ɛɢɨɥɨɝɢɢ; ɩɪɟɞɜɚɪɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɟ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ ɩɨɤɚɡɵɜɚɸɬ, ɱɬɨ
ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɚɹ ɲɤɚɥɚ ɜɨɫɫɬɚɧɨɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɜɟɥɢɤɚ ɢ ɨɰɟɧɢɜɚɟɬɫɹ ɜ ɞɟɫɹɬɤɚɯ Myr [62, 63].
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50. Ȼɟɡɭɫɥɨɜɧɨ, ɫɯɟɦɚ ɧɚ Ɋɢɫ. 7. ɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɭɩɪɨɳɟɧɚ. Ƚɪɚɧɢɰɚ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɣ ɫɨɜɦɟɫɬɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɧɟ
ɞɨɥɠɧɚ ɛɵɬɶ ɩɪɹɦɨɣ ɥɢɧɢɟɣ, ɧɨ ɦɵ ɫɨɯɪɚɧɢɥɢ ɨɛɨɛɳɺɧɧɭɸ ɞɢɚɝɨɧɚɥɶɧɭɸ ɝɪɚɧɢɰɭ ɧɚ
ɞɢɚɝɪɚɦɦɟ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ-ɬɹɠɟɫɬɢ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɣ. ɇɚ Ɋɢɫ.8. ɦɵ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɦ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɭɸ
ɢɥɥɸɫɬɪɚɰɢɸ ɷɬɨɝɨ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɚ ɜ ɷɦɩɢɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɨɛ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɢɦɩɚɤɬɧɵɯ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɨɜ
ɧɚ Ɂɟɦɥɟ. ȼ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɨ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɹɯ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ, ɦɵ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɭɟɦ ɛɚɡɭ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ
ɡɟɦɧɵɯ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ 2010 (Earth Impact Database) [14]. ɇɟɫɦɨɬɪɹ ɧɚ ɧɟɞɨɫɬɚɬɨɱɧɭɸ
ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɸ ɨ ɜɨɡɪɚɫɬɟ ɦɧɨɝɢɯ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɨɜ, ɜɢɞɧɨ ɫɯɨɞɫɬɜɨ ɩɨ ɬɪɟɧɞɭ ɫ Ɋɢɫ. 7. ɇɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ,
ɨɱɟɜɢɞɧɵɦ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɬɨ, ɱɬɨ ɦɵ ɧɟ ɫɦɨɠɟɦ ɨɛɧɚɪɭɠɢɬɶ ɫɥɟɞɵ 100 ɤɦ ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɚ ɢɥɢ
ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɡɚ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɧɢɣ ɦɢɥɥɢɨɧ ɥɟɬ (ɢɥɢ, ɧɟɫɨɦɧɟɧɧɨ, ɜ ɬɟɱɟɧɢɢ ɜɫɟɝɨ Ɏɚɧɟɪɨɡɨɣɫɤɨɝɨ
ɷɨɧɚ, ɫɦ. ɉɪɢɥɨɠɟɧɢɟ). Ɉɡɧɚɱɚɟɬ ɥɢ ɷɬɨ, ɱɬɨ ɩɨɞɨɛɧɵɟ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹ ɨɛɥɚɞɚɸɬ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶɸ,
ɫɬɪɟɦɹɳɟɣɫɹ ɤ ɧɭɥɸ? ɇɟɬ, ɷɬɨ ɨɡɧɚɱɚɟɬ ɬɨ, ɱɬɨ ɩɨɞɨɛɧɵɟ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹ ɧɚɯɨɞɹɬɫɹ ɜ ɡɚɩɪɟɬɧɨɣ
ɡɨɧɟ, ɷɦɩɢɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɢɡ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɣ ɧɟ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɦɵ. Ʌɸɛɨɟ ɩɪɹɦɨɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɟ
ɪɚɫɲɢɪɟɧɢɟ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɢ ɷɦɩɢɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ ɜ ɷɬɨɬ ɪɟɝɢɨɧ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɡɚɧɢɠɟɧɨ ɩɪɢ
ɫɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɢ ɫ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɢɜɧɵɦ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟɦ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɢɦɩɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ ɩɨ ɪɚɡɦɟɪɭ. Ⱦɪɭɝɢɦɢ
ɫɥɨɜɚɦɢ, ɝɢɝɚɧɬɫɤɢɟ ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɵ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɬɶ ɢ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɹɬɶ ɭɝɪɨɡɭ ɞɥɹ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɝɨ,
ɧɨ ɨɧɢ ɧɟ ɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɬ ɫɥɟɞɨɜ ɜ ɩɪɨɲɥɨɦ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ5
. ɋɢɦɦɟɬɪɢɹ ɩɪɨɲɥɨɝɨ-ɛɭɞɭɳɟɝɨ
ɫɥɨɦɚɧɚ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɵɦɢ ɬɟɧɹɦɢ.
Ɋɢɫ. 8. ɗɬɚ ɞɢɚɝɪɚɦɦɚ ɩɨɤɚɡɵɜɚɟɬ ɪɚɡɦɟɪ ɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɵɯ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɨɜ ɤɚɤ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɸ ɨɬ ɢɯ ɜɨɡɪɚɫɬɚ, ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɭɸɬɫɹ
ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɛɚɡɚ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɡɟɦɧɵɯ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ. Ɂɚɦɟɬɧɨ ɨɬɫɭɬɫɬɜɢɟ ɬɨɱɟɤ ɧɚ ɜɟɪɯɧɟɣ ɩɪɚɜɨɣ ɱɚɫɬɢ ɞɢɚɝɪɚɦɦɵ;
5
Ʉɨɧɟɱɧɨ, ɷɬɨ ɩɪɟɞɟɥɶɧɨ ɭɩɪɨɳɺɧɧɵɣ ɩɪɢɦɟɪ. ȼ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ, ɩɪɹɦɨɣ ɩɨɢɫɤ ɨɤɨɥɨɡɟɦɧɵɯ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɨɜ
ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɝɨɪɚɡɞɨ ɛɨɥɟɟ ɜɚɠɧɵɦ ɞɥɹ ɩɪɟɞɫɤɚɡɚɧɢɹ ɧɚɫɬɨɣɳɢɯ ɢ ɛɭɞɭɳɢɯ ɭɝɪɨɡ ɫɬɨɥɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ, ɱɟɦ ɩɨɞɫɱɺɬ ɢ
ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɨɜ ɢ ɩɪɨɱɢɯ ɝɟɨɮɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɫɥɟɞɨɜ [64-66]. Ɍɟɦ ɧɟ ɦɟɧɟɟ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɭɟɬ
ɧɟɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɚɹ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɶ ɨɫɬɚɜɲɢɯɫɹ ɧɟɡɚɦɟɱɟɧɧɵɦɢ ɛɨɥɶɲɢɯ ɬɺɦɧɵɯ ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɨɜ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɛɵɬɶ
ɨɛɧɚɪɭɠɟɧɵ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɱɟɪɟɡ ɢɯ ɩɪɨɲɥɵɟ ɫɥɟɞɵ, ɚ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɨ ɡɟɦɧɵɯ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɚɯ ɫɦɨɝɭɬ ɩɨɦɨɱɶ ɜ
ɜɵɛɨɪɟ ɤɨɧɤɭɪɢɪɭɸɳɟɣ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡɵ [67, 18, 19].
ȼɨɡɪɚɫɬ [Myr]
Ⱦɢɚɦɟɬɪɤɪɚɬɟɪɚ[ɤɦ]
51. ɟɞɢɧɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɱɺɬɤɢɦ ɫɥɟɞɨɦ, ɨɬɪɚɠɚɸɳɟɦ ɤɪɚɬɟɪ ɑɢɤɫɭɥɭɛ 65 Myr ɧɚɡɚɞ ± ɩɨɞɬɜɟɪɠɞɺɧɧɵɣ ɫɥɭɱɚɣ
ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ.
5. Ʉɚɤɢɟ ɭɝɪɨɡɵ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɸ ɩɨɞɜɟɪɠɟɧɵ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɣ
ɬɟɧɢ?
ɂɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟɶ ɨɬ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɵɯ ɬɟɧɟɣ ɜɥɢɹɟɬ ɧɚ ɨɰɟɧɤɭ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɭɝɪɨɡ (ɩɨ ɧɢɫɯɨɞɹɳɟɣ): (1)
ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɭɧɢɱɬɨɠɢɬɶ ɧɚɲ ɜɢɞ ɢɥɢ ɢɯ ɩɪɟɞɤɨɜ, (2) ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɜ ɞɨɫɬɚɬɨɱɧɨɣ ɦɟɪɟ
ɧɟɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɧɵ ɢ (3) ɞɥɹ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɜɵɱɢɫɥɟɧɢɟ ɱɚɫɬɨɬɵ ɛɨɥɶɲɟɣ ɱɚɫɬɶɸ ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɨ ɧɚ
ɧɚɡɟɦɧɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ. ɗɬɢɦ ɤɪɢɬɟɪɢɹɦ ɭɞɨɜɥɟɬɜɨɪɹɸɬ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɨ ɭɝɪɨɡ, ɜɤɥɸɱɚɹ:
(i) ɋɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɹ ɫ ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɚɦɢ ɢɥɢ ɤɨɦɟɬɚɦɢ (ɤɚɥɢɛɪɚɰɢɹ ɬɹɠɟɫɬɢ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɣ
ɩɪɨɜɟɞɟɧɚ ɩɨ Ɍɭɪɢɧɫɤɨɣ ɲɤɚɥɟ ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɧɨɣ ɨɩɚɫɧɨɫɬɢ ɢɥɢ ɩɨ ɪɚɡɦɟɪɭ
ɨɫɬɚɜɲɟɝɨɫɹ ɩɨɫɥɟ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɹ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɚ).
(ii) ɂɡɜɟɪɠɟɧɢɹ ɫɭɩɟɪɜɭɥɤɚɧɨɜ (ɤɚɥɢɛɪɚɰɢɹ ɬɹɠɟɫɬɢ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɣ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɟɞɟɧɚ ɩɨ
ɲɤɚɥɟ ɜɭɥɤɚɧɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢɡɜɟɪɠɟɧɢɣ ɢɥɢ ɫɯɨɠɢɦ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɦ).
(iii) ȼɡɪɵɜ ɫɜɟɪɯɧɨɜɨɣ ɡɜɟɡɞɵ ɢɥɢ ɝɚɦɦɚ-ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤ (ɤɚɥɢɛɪɚɰɢɹ ɬɹɠɟɫɬɢ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɣ
ɩɪɨɢɡɜɟɞɟɧɚ ɩɨ ɪɚɫɫɬɨɹɧɢɸ ɞɨ ɢɫɬɨɱɧɢɤɚ ɢ ɦɨɳɧɨɫɬɢ ɷɬɨɝɨ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹ).
(iv) ɋɜɟɪɯɦɨɳɧɵɟ ɫɨɥɧɟɱɧɵɟ ɜɫɩɵɲɤɢ (ɤɚɥɢɛɪɚɰɢɹ ɬɹɠɟɫɬɢ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɣ
ɩɪɨɢɡɜɟɞɟɧɚ ɩɨ ɦɨɳɧɨɫɬɢ ɷɥɟɤɬɪɨɦɚɝɧɢɬɧɨɣ ɢ ɤɨɪɩɭɫɤɭɥɹɪɧɨɣ ɷɦɢɫɫɢɢ).
Ɇɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɨ ɭɝɪɨɡ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɨɛɧɚɪɭɠɟɧɨ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɷɬɢɯ ɤɪɢɬɟɪɢɟɜ. ɇɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ,
ɬɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢ, ɢɫɬɨɪɢɸ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ ɫ ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɚɦɢ ɢ ɤɨɦɟɬɚɦɢ ɜ ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɟ
ɩɪɨɳɟ ɜɫɟɝɨ ɢɡɭɱɢɬɶ ɧɚ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɟ Ʌɭɧɵ, ɝɞɟ ɷɪɨɡɢɹ ɧɚ ɧɟɫɤɨɥɶɤɨ ɩɨɪɹɞɤɨɜ ɫɥɚɛɟɟ ɡɟɦɧɨɣ6
.
ȼ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ, ɬɨɱɧɵɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɨ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɹɯ ɩɨɤɚ ɧɟɥɶɡɹ ɩɨɥɭɱɢɬɶ, ɜ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɦ
ɩɨɬɨɦɭ ɱɬɨ: (1) ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɢɟ ɬɨɱɧɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɨ ɛɨɥɶɲɨɦ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɥɭɧɧɵɯ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɨɜ ɩɨɤɚ
ɧɚɯɨɞɹɬɫɹ ɡɚ ɩɪɟɞɟɥɚɦɢ ɧɚɲɢɯ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɟɣ 7
ɢ (2) ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɨ ɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɵɯ ɛɨɥɶɲɢɯ
ɥɭɧɧɵɯ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɨɜ ɨɬɧɨɫɢɬɫɹ ɤ ɨɱɟɧɶ ɫɩɟɰɢɮɢɱɧɨɣ ɷɩɨɯɟ, ɧɚɡɵɜɚɟɦɨɣ ɩɨɡɞɧɟɣ ɬɹɠɺɥɨɣ
ɛɨɦɛɚɪɞɢɪɨɜɤɨɣ [15, 16], ɞɥɢɜɲɟɣɫɹ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɧɨ 4.0 ± 3.8 ɦɢɥɥɢɚɪɞɨɜ ɥɟɬ ɧɚɡɚɞ, ɱɬɨ ɫɢɥɶɧɨ
ɦɟɲɚɟɬ ɥɸɛɵɦ ɩɨɩɵɬɤɚɦ ɝɪɚɮɢɱɟɫɤɢ ɨɬɨɛɪɚɡɢɬɶ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɸ ɷɦɩɢɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ
ɞɥɹ «ɧɨɪɦɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ» ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ. ȼ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ, ɜ ɧɵɧɟɲɧɢɯ ɞɟɛɚɬɚɯ ɨ ɱɚɫɬɨɬɟ
ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ ɫ ɤɨɦɟɬɚɦɢ ɢɥɢ ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɚɦɢ, ɨɛɵɱɧɨ ɩɪɢɜɨɞɹɬ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɨɜ ɧɚ
Ɂɟɦɥɟ ɜ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɚɪɝɭɦɟɧɬɨɜ «ɡɚ» ɢɥɢ «ɩɪɨɬɢɜ» ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɫɤɪɵɬɵɯ ɢɦɩɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ [17-
21], ɢ ɬɚɤɢɦ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɦ ɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹ ɯɨɪɨɲɢɦ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɨɦ, ɧɚ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɦ, ɩɨ ɤɪɚɣɧɟɣ ɦɟɪɟ
ɩɨɬɟɧɰɢɚɥɶɧɨ, ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɩɪɨɜɟɪɟɧɚ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɣ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟɢ8
. ȼ ɩɪɢɧɰɢɩɟ, ɦɟɪɚ
ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɹ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ ɨ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɚɯ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɭɦɟɧɶɲɟɧɚ ɱɟɪɟɡ ɷɤɫɬɪɚɩɨɥɹɰɢɸ ɱɢɫɥɚ
6
Ɉɧɚ ɧɟ ɨɬɫɭɬɫɬɜɭɟɬ ɩɨɥɧɨɫɬɶɸ, ɤɚɤ ɱɚɫɬɨ ɭɩɨɦɢɧɚɟɬɫɹ ɜ ɩɨɩɭɥɹɪɧɨɣ ɥɢɬɟɪɚɬɭɪɟ: ɦɢɤɪɨɦɟɬɢɚɪɢɬɵ ɢ
ɤɨɫɦɱɟɫɤɨɟ ɢɡɥɭɱɟɧɢɟ ɩɪɢɜɨɞɹɬ ɤ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɨɣ ɩɨɬɟɪɟ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ.
7
ɗɬɨ ɜ ɛɨɥɶɲɟɣ ɫɬɟɩɟɧɢ ɨɬɧɨɫɢɬɫɹ ɤ ɡɚɩɢɫɹɦ ɨ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɚɯ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ ɬɟɥ ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ, ɧɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, Ɇɚɪɫɚ.
8
ȼ ɞɨɩɨɥɧɟɧɢɟ ɤ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɚɦ ɨɬ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ, ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɭɟɬ ɬɚɤ ɠɟ ɪɹɞ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ ɫɥɟɞɨɜ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɫɩɨɫɨɛɫɬɜɭɸɬ
ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɢɸ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɢ ɷɦɩɢɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ ɞɥɹ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ ± ɜ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɦ, ɯɢɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɚɧɨɦɚɥɢɢ
ɢɥɢ ɢɦɩɚɤɬɢɬɵ [68].
52. ɤɪɚɬɟɪɨɜ ɦɟɧɶɲɢɯ ɪɚɡɦɟɪɨɜ ɢ ɫɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɹ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɨɜ ɷɤɫɬɪɚɩɨɥɹɰɢɢ ɫ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟɦ
ɪɚɡɦɟɪɚ-ɱɚɫɬɨɬɵ ɧɚ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ ɬɟɥɚɯ ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɵ ɛɟɡ
ɬɟɯɧɢɱɟɫɤɢ ɧɟɜɵɩɨɥɧɢɦɵɯ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɨɜ ɜɨɡɪɚɫɬɚ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɨɜ. ȼ ɪɟɚɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ, ɧɚɱɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɬɨɱɤɚ
ɷɤɫɬɪɚɩɨɥɹɰɢɢ ɧɟ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɧɟ ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɚ ± ɬɚɤ ɤɚɤ ɦɚɥɨ ɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɨ ɨ ɫɥɭɱɚɣɧɵɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹɯ
ɛɢɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɩɪɢɜɟɥɢ ɤ ɩɨɹɜɥɟɧɢɸ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ, ± ɧɨ ɷɬɢ
ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ ɪɚɡɦɟɪɚ-ɱɚɫɬɨɬɵ ɨɬɪɚɠɚɸɬ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɟ ɭɫɪɟɞɧɟɧɢɹ ɜɚɠɧɵɯ
ɜɡɚɢɦɨɫɜɹɡɟɣ (ɦɟɠɞɭ ɱɚɫɬɨɬɚɦɢ, ɭɝɥɚɦɢ, ɪɚɡɦɟɪɚɦɢ, ɩɥɨɬɧɨɫɬɶɸ ɚɝɟɧɬɨɜ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ ɢ
ɫɪɚɜɧɢɜɚɹ ɫ ɪɚɡɦɟɪɨɦ ɤɪɚɬɟɪɚ). ɉɨɬɟɪɹ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ ɩɪɢ ɭɫɪɟɞɧɟɧɢɢ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɜɚɠɧɨɣ,
ɟɫɥɢ ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɧɚɹ ɩɨɩɭɥɹɰɢɹ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɢɡɦɟɧɹɬɶɫɹ ɫ ɬɟɱɟɧɢɟɦ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ.
Ɋɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɱɚɫɬɨɬɵ ɛɨɥɶɲɢɯ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɜɡɪɵɜɨɜ (ɫɜɟɪɯɧɨɜɵɟ ɡɜɺɡɞɵ ɢɥɢ ɝɚɦɦɚ-
ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɢ), ɯɨɬɹ ɢ ɫ ɦɟɧɶɲɟɣ ɫɬɟɩɟɧɶɸ ɞɨɫɬɨɜɟɪɧɨɫɬɢ, ɛɟɪɭɬɫɹ ɢɡ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɡɚ
ɨɬɞɚɥɺɧɧɵɦɢ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɚɦɢ: ɩɨɯɨɠɢɦɢ ɧɚ Ɇɥɟɱɧɵɣ ɉɭɬɶ ɝɚɥɚɤɬɢɤɚɦɢ. ɗɬɚ ɜɧɟɲɧɹɹ
ɩɪɨɜɟɪɤɚ ɭɦɟɧɶɲɚɟɬ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɟ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟ, ɤɨɬɨɪɨɟ ɜɥɢɹɟɬ ɧɚ ɜɵɱɢɫɥɟɧɢɟ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɟɣ
ɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ, ɫɩɨɫɨɛɧɵɯ ɩɪɢɜɟɫɬɢ ɤ ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɸ, ɜɡɪɵɜɨɜ ɫɜɟɪɯɧɨɜɵɯ ɡɜɺɡɞ ɢ ɝɚɦɦɚ-
ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɨɜ. ɋɬɟɩɟɧɶ ɜɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɷɬɢɯ ɜɡɪɵɜɨɜ ɞɥɹ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɡɚɪɨɠɞɟɧɢɹ ɢ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɠɢɡɧɢ
ɛɵɥɚ ɩɪɟɞɦɟɬɨɦ ɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɣ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɧɢɯ ɞɟɫɹɬɢɥɟɬɢɣ [22-32].
Ɏɪɚɝɦɟɧɬɚɪɧɵɟ ɝɟɨɯɢɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɫɥɟɞɵ ɩɪɨɲɥɵɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɧɚɣɞɟɧɵ ɜ ɧɚɡɟɦɧɵɯ
ɡɚɩɢɫɹɯ, ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨ ɤɟɪɧɚɯ ɥɶɞɚ [33]. ɗɬɨ ɠɟ, ɩɭɫɬɶ ɢ ɜ ɦɟɧɶɲɟɣ ɫɬɟɩɟɧɢ, ɩɪɢɦɟɧɢɦɨ ɤ
ɝɢɝɚɧɬɫɤɢɦ ɫɨɥɧɟɱɧɵɦ ɜɫɩɵɲɤɚɦ [34].
ȼɨɡɦɨɠɧɨ, ɢɡɜɟɪɠɟɧɢɹ ɫɜɟɪɯɜɭɥɤɚɧɨɜ ɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹ ɧɚɢɥɭɱɲɢɦɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɚɦɢ ɡɟɦɧɵɯ
ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ. Ɉɧɢ ɢɧɬɟɪɟɫɧɵ ɩɨ ɞɜɭɦ ɧɟɞɚɜɧɨ ɨɛɧɚɪɭɠɟɧɧɵɦ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɚɦ: (1)
ɫɜɟɪɯɜɭɥɤɚɧɢɡɦ, ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɨɠɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ, ɜɵɡɜɚɥ ɦɚɫɫɨɜɨɟ ɉɟɪɦɫɤɨɟ ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɟ (251.4 0.7
Myr ɧɚɡɚɞ), ɭɛɢɜɲɟɟ 96% ɨɬ ɜɫɟɯ ɡɟɦɧɵɯ ɜɢɞɨɜ ɦɧɨɝɨɤɥɟɬɨɱɧɵɯ [35, 36]. (2)
ɋɭɩɟɪɜɭɥɤɚɧɢɡɦ, ɩɨɠɚɥɭɣ, ɟɞɢɧɫɬɜɟɧɧɚɹ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɚ, ɩɪɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɢ ɩɪɢɜɟɞɲɚɹ ɤ
ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɸ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɬɜɚ: ɫɭɩɟɪɢɡɜɟɪɠɟɧɢɟ Ɍɨɛɚ (ɋɭɦɚɬɪɚ, ɂɧɞɨɧɟɡɢɹ, 74000 ɥɟɬ ɧɚɡɚɞ),
ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɨɠɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɭɦɟɧɶɲɢɥɚ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɤɭɸ ɩɨɩɭɥɹɰɢɸ ɞɨ ~1000 ɢɧɞɢɜɢɞɨɜ [9, 37]. ȼ
ɫɜɟɬɟ ɱɟɝɨ ɦɵ ɞɨɥɠɧɵ ɫɟɪɶɺɡɧɨ ɩɨɞɨɣɬɢ ɤ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɸ ɷɬɨɣ ɭɝɪɨɡɵ, ɤɨɬɨɪɚɹ, ɧɟɫɦɨɬɪɹ
ɧɚ ɲɢɪɨɤɨ ɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɵɟ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ, ɧɚɩɨɞɨɛɢɟ ɢɡɜɟɪɠɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɋɚɧɬɨɪɢɧɢ, ɉɨɦɩɟɢ ɢ Ɍɚɦɛɨɪɚ,
ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɧɟɞɚɜɧɨ ɫɬɚɥɚ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɨɦ ɢɧɬɟɪɟɫɚ [38, 39, 3].
ȿɳɺ ɨɞɧɚ ɪɟɞɤɚ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɚ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɜɵɡɜɚɧɚ ɩɪɨɯɨɠɞɟɧɢɟɦ ɧɟɩɨɞɚɥɺɤɭ ɨɬ Ɂɟɦɥɢ
ɨɛɵɱɧɵɯ ɡɜɺɡɞ [11] ɢɥɢ ɷɤɡɨɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɨɜ, ɧɚɩɨɞɨɛɢɟ ɧɟɣɬɪɨɧɧɵɯ ɡɜɺɡɞ ɢɥɢ ɱɺɪɧɵɯ
ɞɵɪ. Ⱦɚɠɟ ɟɫɥɢ ɛɵ ɦɵ ɨɛɥɚɞɚɥɢ ɜɫɟɣ ɩɨɥɧɨɬɨɣ ɡɧɚɧɢɣ ɨ ɡɟɦɧɨɣ ɢɫɬɨɪɢɢ, ɧɨ ɧɢɱɟɝɨ ɛɵ ɧɟ
ɡɧɚɥɢ ɨɛ ɚɫɬɪɨɧɨɦɢɢ, ɦɵ ɛɵ ɧɟ ɫɦɨɝɥɢ ɬɨɱɧɨ ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɚɬɶ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɭɧɢɱɬɨɠɟɧɢɹ Ɂɟɦɥɢ
ɩɪɢ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɢ ɫ ɱɺɪɧɨɣ ɞɵɪɨɣ. ɇɨ ɢɡ-ɡɚ ɬɨɝɨ, ɱɬɨ ɦɵ ɨɛɥɚɞɚɟɦ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɦɢ ɡɧɚɧɢɹɦɢ
ɨɛ ɨɤɪɭɠɟɧɢɢ ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ ɜ Ɇɥɟɱɧɨɦ ɉɭɬɢ ɢ ɡɧɚɟɦ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɦɚɫɫ ɡɜɺɡɞ, ɢ
ɩɨɫɤɨɥɶɤɭ ɷɬɨ ɡɧɚɧɢɟ ɧɟ ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɨ ɧɚ ɡɟɦɧɨɣ ɢɫɬɨɪɢɢ, ɧɚɲɢ ɩɪɟɞɫɤɚɡɚɧɢɹ ɷɬɢɯ ɪɢɫɤɨɜ ɧɟ
ɛɭɞɟɬ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɵ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɵɦ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟɦ.
ȼ ɨɬɥɢɱɢɟ ɨɬ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɭɝɪɨɡ, ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɸ ɨɛ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɨɝɟɧɧɵɯ ɭɝɪɨɡɚɯ
ɬɪɭɞɧɨ ɩɨɥɭɱɢɬɶ ɫ ɩɨɦɨɳɶɸ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɞɨɢɫɬɨɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ.
ȿɞɢɧɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɦ ɢɫɤɥɸɱɟɧɢɟɦ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɶ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɜ
ɤɜɚɧɬɨɜɨɦ ɩɨɥɟ, ɤɨɬɨɪɚɹ ɦɨɠɟɬ (ɫɩɟɤɭɥɹɬɢɜɧɨ) ɩɪɨɢɡɨɣɬɢ ɩɨ ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɦ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɚɦ, ɧɨ
53. ɝɨɪɚɡɞɨ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɟɣ ɩɪɨɢɡɨɣɞɺɬ ɢɡ-ɡɚ ɷɤɫɩɟɪɢɦɟɧɬɨɜ ɜ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɮɢɡɢɤɢ ɜɵɫɨɤɢɯ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɣ,
ɧɚɩɨɞɨɛɢɟ ɩɪɨɜɨɞɢɦɵɯ ɜ ɭɫɤɨɪɢɬɟɥɹɯ ɱɚɫɬɢɰ. ɗɬɚ ɭɝɪɨɡɚ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɚ ɧɢɠɟ.
6. Ⱥɧɬɪɨɩɧɵɟ ɬɟɧɢ ɢ ɪɢɫɤɢ ɮɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɷɤɫɩɟɪɢɦɟɧɬɨɜ
ɉɪɢɦɟɪɚɦɢ par excellence ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ Q=0 ɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹ ɮɚɡɨɜɵɣ ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞ ɜɚɤɭɭɦɚ ɢɥɢ ɪɚɫɩɚɞ
ɤɜɚɧɬɨɜɨɝɨ ɩɨɥɹ. ɉɨɞɨɛɧɵɟ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹ ɩɪɢɜɟɞɭɬ ɧɟ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɤ ɢɫɱɟɡɧɨɜɟɧɢɸ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɬɜɚ, ɧɨ
ɬɚɤɠɟ ɩɨɥɧɨɫɬɶɸ ɢ ɧɚɜɫɟɝɞɚ ɭɧɢɱɬɨɠɚɬ ɡɟɦɧɭɸ ɛɢɨɫɮɟɪɭ. Ʉɨɥɦɚɧ ɢ Ⱦɟ Ʌɭɫɢɚ (Coleman
and De Luccia) ɜɩɟɪɜɵɟ ɭɩɨɦɹɧɭɥɢ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɶ ɬɨɝɨ, ɱɬɨ ɭɫɤɨɪɢɬɟɥɢ ɷɥɟɦɟɧɬɚɪɧɵɯ
ɱɚɫɬɢɰ, ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɭɟɦɵɯ ɜ ɮɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɷɤɫɩɟɪɢɦɟɧɬɚɯ, ɦɨɝɭɬ ɩɪɢɜɟɫɬɢ ɤ ɬɚɤɨɣ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɟ.
[40]. ɗɬɚ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɶ ɛɵɥɚ ɲɢɪɨɤɨ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɚ [10, 41-46] ɢ ɢɧɢɰɢɢɪɨɜɚɥɚ ɩɪɨɬɟɫɬ
ɩɪɨɬɢɜ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɭɫɤɨɪɢɬɟɥɟɣ ɱɚɫɬɢɰ, ɜɤɥɸɱɚɹ ɧɟɞɚɜɧɢɣ Ȼɨɥɶɲɨɣ Ⱥɞɪɨɧɧɵɣ
Ʉɨɥɥɚɣɞɟɪ [46, 47].
ȼɚɠɧɵ ɬɪɢ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬɧɵɟ ɭɝɪɨɡɵ: (1) ɡɚɩɭɫɤ ɮɚɡɨɜɨɝɨ ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞɚ ɜɚɤɭɭɦɚ ɱɟɪɟɡ ɫɨɡɞɚɧɢɟ
ɪɚɫɲɢɪɹɸɳɟɝɨɫɹ ɩɭɡɵɪɹ «ɧɨɜɨɝɨ» ɜɚɤɭɭɦɧɨɝɨ ɫɨɫɬɨɹɧɢɹ, (2) ɫɥɭɱɚɣɧɨɟ ɫɨɡɞɚɧɢɟ
ɫɬɪɚɩɟɥɶɤɢ, ɫɩɨɫɨɛɧɨɣ ɬɪɚɧɫɮɨɪɦɢɪɨɜɚɬɶ ɜɫɸ ɡɟɦɧɭɸ ɦɚɫɫɭ ɜ ɫɬɪɚɧɧɭɸ ɦɚɬɟɪɢɸ ɢ (3)
ɫɥɭɱɚɣɧɨɟ ɫɨɡɞɚɧɢɟ ɦɢɧɢ-ɱɺɪɧɨɣ ɞɵɪɵ, ɤɨɬɨɪɚɹ, ɩɪɨɫɨɱɢɜɲɢɫɶ ɜ ɰɟɧɬɪ Ɂɟɦɥɢ,
ɩɨɫɬɟɩɟɧɧɨ ɭɧɢɱɬɨɠɢɬ ɧɚɲɭ ɩɥɚɧɟɬɭ. ɇɟɫɦɨɬɪɹ ɧɚ ɧɚɭɱɧɭɸ ɮɚɧɬɚɫɬɢɤɭ, ɢɫɬɪɟɩɚɜɲɭɸ
ɷɬɢ ɢɞɟɢ, ɨɧɢ ɛɵɥɢ ɫɟɪɶɺɡɧɨ ɜɨɫɩɪɢɧɹɬɵ ɞɚɠɟ ɜɵɫɲɟɣ ɚɞɦɢɧɢɫɬɪɚɰɢɟɣ ɫɨɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ
ɥɚɛɨɪɚɬɨɪɢɣ ɭɫɤɨɪɢɬɟɥɟɣ ɱɚɫɬɢɰ [48]. ɗɬɨ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɧɟ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɷɫɯɚɬɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ
ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɨɣ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɬɜɚ: ɮɚɡɨɜɵɣ ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞ ɜɚɤɭɭɦɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɭɧɢɱɬɨɠɢɬ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɹ ɞɥɹ
ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɜɫɟɯ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɵɯ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ ɜ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɦ ɧɚɲɟɝɨ ɫɜɟɬɨɜɨɝɨ ɤɨɧɭɫɚ. Ⱦɚɠɟ
ɟɫɥɢ ɲɚɧɫ ɷɬɨɝɨ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɹ ɧɟɜɟɥɢɤ, ɟɝɨ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɢɱɟɫɤɨɟ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɟ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɧɚɫɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɜɟɥɢɤɨ,
ɱɬɨ ɨɧɨ ɞɨɫɬɨɣɧɨ ɛɥɢɡɤɨɝɨ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɢɹ.
ɏɚɬ ɢ Ɋɢɫ (Hut and Rees) ɩɪɨɜɟɥɢ ɜɚɠɧɨɟ ɧɨɜɚɬɨɪɫɤɨɟ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɵ ɭɝɪɨɡ
ɮɢɡɢɤɢ ɜɵɫɨɤɢɯ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɣ, ɩɪɟɞɥɨɠɢɜ, ɱɬɨ ɧɟɬ ɪɚɰɢɨɧɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɩɪɢɱɢɧ ɤ ɛɟɫɩɨɤɨɣɫɬɜɭ
ɧɚɫɱɺɬ ɭɫɤɨɪɢɬɟɥɟɣ ɱɚɫɬɢɰ: ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɹ ɜɵɫɨɤɨɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɱɚɫɬɢɰ ɜɫɬɪɟɱɚɸɬɫɹ ɜ
ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɫɪɟɞɟ, ɧɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɹ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɥɭɱɟɣ ɢ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ Ɂɟɦɥɢ ɢɥɢ
ɬɜɺɪɞɨɣ ɦɚɫɫɵ Ʌɭɧɵ, ɛɨɥɟɟ ɬɨɝɨ, ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ ɷɬɢɯ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ ɧɚ ɩɨɪɹɞɤɢ ɩɪɟɜɵɲɚɟɬ ɬɟ,
ɱɬɨ ɦɨɠɧɨ ɩɨɥɭɱɢɬɶ ɜ ɥɚɛɨɪɚɬɨɪɧɵɯ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɹɯ ɜ ɛɥɢɠɚɣɲɟɦ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɦ [10]. ɉɪɢɧɢɦɚɹ
ɩɪɚɜɞɨɩɨɞɨɛɧɵɟ ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɢɹ ɨɛ ɨɰɟɧɤɟ ɩɨɩɟɪɟɱɧɨɝɨ ɫɟɱɟɧɢɹ ɜɚɠɧɵɯ ɪɟɚɤɰɢɣ, ɏɚɬ ɢ
Ɋɢɫ ɡɚɤɥɸɱɢɥɢ, ɱɬɨ ɮɚɤɬ ɜɵɠɢɜɚɧɢɹ Ɂɟɦɥɢ (ɢ Ʌɭɧɵ) ɩɨɫɥɟ ɛɨɦɛɚɪɞɢɪɨɜɤɢ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɦɢ
ɥɭɱɚɦɢ ɜ ɬɟɱɟɧɢɢ 4.5 ɦɥɪɞ. ɥɟɬ ɩɨɞɪɚɡɭɦɟɜɚɟɬ, ɱɬɨ ɜ ɩɪɟɞɜɢɞɢɦɨɦ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɦ ɦɵ
ɧɚɯɨɞɢɦɫɹ ɜ ɛɟɡɨɩɚɫɧɨɫɬɢ. ɇɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɟɫɥɢ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ ɢɡ-ɡɚ ɷɤɫɩɟɪɢɦɟɧɬɨɜ
ɮɢɡɢɤɢ ɜɵɫɨɤɢɯ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɣ ɪɚɜɧɚ 10-50
, ɬɨ ɭɞɜɨɟɧɢɟ ɢɥɢ ɞɚɠɟ ɭɞɟɫɹɬɢɪɟɧɢɟ ɪɢɫɤɚ, ɢɡ-ɡɚ
ɚɤɬɢɜɢɡɚɰɢɢ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɣ, ɜɟɫɶɦɚ ɧɢɱɬɨɠɧɨ.
Ⱥɪɝɭɦɟɧɬɚɰɢɹ ɏɚɬɚ-Ɋɢɫɚ ɧɟ ɞɨɥɠɧɚ ɧɚɫ ɭɫɩɨɤɚɢɜɚɬɶ, ɢɛɨ ɜ ɧɟɣ ɧɟɫɤɨɪɪɟɤɬɢɪɨɜɚɧɨ
ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɟ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟ. Ɏɚɡɨɜɵɣ ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞ ɜɚɤɭɭɦɚ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɟɦ, ɩɪɢ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɦ Q=0.
Ɍɚɤɢɦ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɦ, ɨɰɟɧɤɢ, ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɧɵɟ ɧɚ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɢ Ɂɟɦɥɢ ɢɥɢ Ʌɭɧɵ, ɩɨɥɧɨɫɬɶɸ
ɧɟɞɨɫɬɨɜɟɪɧɵ. Ȼɨɥɟɟ ɬɨɝɨ, ɧɟɞɨɫɬɨɜɟɪɧɨɫɬɶ ɷɬɢɯ ɩɪɟɞɫɤɚɡɚɧɢɣ ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɚ ɧɚ ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ
ɢ ɜɵɡɜɚɧɧɵɯ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɤɨɦ ɮɚɡɨɜɵɯ ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞɚɯ ɜɚɤɭɭɦɚ (ɏɚɬ ɢ Ɋɢɫ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɫɩɪɚɜɟɞɥɢɜɨ
ɡɚɤɥɸɱɚɸɬ, ɱɬɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɩɨɬɟɧɰɢɚɥɶɧɨ ɨɩɚɫɧɵɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ ɜ ɥɸɛɵɯ ɞɨɫɬɭɩɧɵɯ
54. ɱɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɬɜɭ ɭɫɤɨɪɢɬɟɥɹɯ, ɝɨɪɚɡɞɨ ɦɟɧɶɲɟ, ɱɟɦ ɜ ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɥɭɱɚɯ). Ʉ
ɫɨɠɚɥɟɧɢɸ, ɫɯɨɠɚɹ ɨɲɢɛɤɚ ɩɨɜɬɨɪɹɟɬɫɹ ɜ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɛɟɡɨɩɚɫɧɨɫɬɢ Ȼɨɥɶɲɨɝɨ
Ⱥɞɪɨɧɧɨɝɨ Ʉɨɥɥɚɣɞɟɪɚ, ɩɪɢ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɦ, ɜ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɚɪɝɭɦɟɧɬɚɰɢɢ ɛɟɡɨɩɚɫɧɨɫɬɢ ɭɫɤɨɪɢɬɟɥɹ,
ɛɵɥɨ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɨ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ [46].
Ɍɟɝɦɚɪɤ ɢ Ȼɨɫɬɪɨɦ (Tegmark and Bostrom) ɫɦɨɝɥɢ ɩɟɪɟɯɢɬɪɢɬɶ ɷɮɮɟɤɬ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɣ
ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟɦ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɨ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɢ ɩɥɚɧɟɬɚɪɧɨɝɨ ɜɨɡɪɚɫɬɚ ɢ ɨɬɧɨɫɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ
ɧɟɞɚɜɧɟɣ ɞɚɬɨɣ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɜɚɧɢɹ Ɂɟɦɥɢ [12], ɞɥɹ ɬɨɝɨ, ɱɬɨɛɵ ɜɵɜɟɫɬɢ ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɨɟ
ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɭɧɢɱɬɨɠɢɬɶ ɢɥɢ ɩɨɥɧɨɫɬɶɸ
ɫɬɟɪɢɥɢɡɨɜɚɬɶ ɩɥɚɧɟɬɭ [49]. ɇɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɢɯ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɨɜ, ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɮɚɡɨɜɨɝɨ ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞɚ
ɜɚɤɭɭɦɚ ɞɥɹ ɜɫɟɝɨ Ɇɥɟɱɧɨɝɨ ɉɭɬɢ ɦɟɧɶɲɟ 10-9
ɜ ɝɨɞ. ɗɬɨ ɩɨɤɚɡɵɜɚɟɬ, ɱɬɨ
ɨɫɜɟɞɨɦɥɺɧɧɨɫɬɶ ɨɛ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɚɯ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɣ ɬɟɧɢ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɩɪɢɜɟɫɬɢ ɤ ɛɨɥɟɟ ɞɨɫɬɨɜɟɪɧɨɣ
ɨɰɟɧɤɟ ɪɢɫɤɨɜ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ.
7. Ɂɚɤɥɸɱɟɧɢɟ
Ʌɢ ɋɦɨɥɢɧ, ɜ ɱɢɫɥɟ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ, ɡɚɹɜɢɥ, ɱɬɨ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɦɭ ɩɪɢɧɰɢɩɭ ɧɟ ɯɜɚɬɚɟɬ
ɩɪɟɞɫɤɚɡɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɢɥɵ ɢ ɩɪɢɤɥɚɞɧɨɣ ɜɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ [50]. ɇɨ ɧɚɲɢ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ ɩɨɡɜɨɥɹɸɬ
ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɨɠɢɬɶ, ɱɬɨ ɤɨɪɪɟɤɰɢɹ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɹ ɨɬ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɣ ɬɟɧɢ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɢɡɦɟɧɢɬɶ
ɨɰɟɧɤɭ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ, ɧɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɢɡɜɟɪɠɟɧɢɹ ɫɭɩɟɪɜɭɥɤɚɧɚ ɢɥɢ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɹ ɫ
ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɨɦ. Ȼɨɥɟɟ ɬɨɝɨ, ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɷɬɨɣ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟɢ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɧɚɦ ɩɨɦɨɱɶ ɢɡɛɟɝɚɬɶ
ɥɨɜɭɲɟɤ ɢ ɨɲɢɛɨɤ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɭɝɪɨɡ, ɩɨɞɨɛɧɵɯ ɚɪɝɭɦɟɧɬɚɦ ɏɚɬɚ-Ɋɢɫɚ ɢɥɢ Ƚɪɭɩɩɵ ɨɰɟɧɤɢ
ɛɟɡɨɩɚɫɧɨɫɬɢ Ȼɨɥɶɲɨɝɨ Ⱥɞɪɨɧɧɨɝɨ Ʉɨɥɥɚɣɞɟɪɚ (Large Hadron Collider Safety Assessment
Group) ɩɪɢ ɨɰɟɧɤɟ ɪɢɫɤɚ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ ɱɚɫɬɢɰ. ɉɨ ɷɬɨɣ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɟ, ɝɥɚɜɧɵɣ ɭɪɨɤ ɥɟɠɢɬ ɜ
ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɢ ɛɨɥɶɲɟɣ ɨɫɦɨɬɪɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ, ɤɨɬɨɪɭɸ ɦɵ ɞɨɥɠɧɵ ɩɪɢɧɹɬɶ ɩɪɢ ɪɚɛɨɬɟ ɫɨ
ɫɩɟɤɬɪɨɦ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ ɢ ɍɋ. Ʉɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɣ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟɢ ɜ ɍɋ
ɩɪɢɫɤɨɪɛɧɨ, ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨ ɭɱɢɬɵɜɚɹ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɦɵɟ ɡɞɟɫɶ ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɟ ɢ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɵɟ
ɚɧɬɪɨɩɨɝɟɧɧɵɟ ɭɝɪɨɡɵ, ɜɨɡɧɢɤɚɸɳɢɟ ɩɪɢ ɩɨɹɜɥɟɧɢɢ ɦɨɳɧɵɯ ɬɟɯɧɨɥɨɝɢɣ. ȼɪɹɞ ɥɢ ɧɭɠɧɨ
ɩɨɞɱɺɪɤɢɜɚɬɶ, ɱɬɨ ɭɥɭɱɲɟɧɢɟ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɜ ɱɢɫɥɟɧɧɨɣ ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɪɢɫɤɨɜ ɧɚɜɟɪɧɹɤɚ ɩɪɢɜɟɞɭɬ ɤ
ɭɥɭɱɲɟɧɢɸ ɩɪɚɤɬɢɤ ɫɧɢɠɟɧɢɹ ɢ ɭɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɭɝɪɨɡɚɦɢ [6].
ɇɟɨɛɯɨɞɢɦɵ ɞɚɥɶɧɟɣɲɢɟ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɮɨɪɦ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɵɯ ɬɟɧɟɣ ɢ ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɹ
ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɝɨ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɹ, ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨ ɩɨ ɨɬɧɨɲɟɧɢɸ ɤ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɸ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɜɵɠɢɜɚɧɢɹ ɫɨ
ɜɪɟɦɟɧɟɦ, ɤ ɫɦɟɲɟɧɢɸ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɯ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɡɦɨɜ ɍɋ ɢ ɤ ɜɟɤɨɜɨɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɣ
ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɵɯ ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɣ. Ɂɚ ɢɫɤɥɸɱɟɧɢɟɦ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ ɫ Q=0, ɧɚɩɨɞɨɛɢɟ ɮɚɡɨɜɵɯ
ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞɨɜ ɜɚɤɭɭɦɚ, ɧɟɨɛɯɨɞɢɦɵ ɛɨɥɟɟ ɫɥɨɠɧɵɟ ɢ ɪɟɚɥɢɫɬɢɱɧɵɟ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɤɨɪɪɟɤɰɢɢ
ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɝɨ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɹ. Ɋɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɟ ɩɨ ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧɟ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɩɨɜɥɢɹɬɶ ɧɚ
ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɭɸ ɰɟɩɨɱɤɭ ɢ ɜɨ ɦɧɨɝɢɯ ɫɥɭɱɚɹɯ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɩɪɢɜɟɫɬɢ ɤ ɧɚɲɟɦɭ ɢɫɱɟɡɧɨɜɟɧɢɸ ɜ
ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɣ. ȼɵɱɟɪɱɢɜɚɧɢɟ ɝɪɚɮɢɤɨɜ ɩɨɞɨɛɧɵɯ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɣ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɫɥɨɠɧɨɣ
ɡɚɞɚɱɟɣ, ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨ ɭɱɢɬɵɜɚɹ, ɱɬɨ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɨɟ ɜɨɡɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɟ ɞɚɠɟ ɟɞɢɧɢɱɧɵɯ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ,
ɧɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ ɩɚɞɟɧɢɹ ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɚ ɜ ɑɢɤɫɭɥɭɛ, ɩɪɢɜɟɥɨ ɤ ɜɟɡɞɟɫɭɳɢɦ ɢ ɧɟɩɪɟɞɜɢɞɟɧɧɵɦ
ɛɢɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɦ ɨɛɫɬɨɹɬɟɥɶɫɬɜɚɦ [5-54]. Ⱦɥɹ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɯ ɷɬɚɩɨɜ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɹ,
ɨɬɞɟɥɺɧɧɵɯ ɞɪɭɝ ɨɬ ɞɪɭɝɚ ɫɥɭɱɚɣɧɵɦɢ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɚɦɢ, ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɧɟɨɛɯɨɞɢɦɨ
ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɜɟɫɶɦɚ ɫɥɨɠɧɨɝɨ ɮɨɪɦɚɥɢɡɦɚ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ, ɧɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɧɵɯ
55. ɤɥɟɬɨɱɧɵɯ ɚɜɬɨɦɚɬɨɜ, ɱɬɨɛɵ ɭɱɟɫɬɶ ɜɫɟ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɵ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɩɪɢɜɨɞɢɬɶ ɤ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɦɭ
ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɸ. [55].
ɉɪɢɥɨɠɟɧɢɟ: ɫɥɨɜɚɪɶ
ɍɋ ± ɭɝɪɨɡɵ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɸ, ɩɨɞɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɨ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ, ɜɪɟɞ ɨɬ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ
ɦɨɠɟɬ ɥɢɛɨ ɭɧɢɱɬɨɠɢɬɶ ɪɚɡɭɦɧɭɸ ɠɢɡɧɶ ɧɚ Ɂɟɦɥɟ, ɥɢɛɨ ɩɨɥɧɨɫɬɶɸ ɢ ɪɚɞɢɤɚɥɶɧɨ
ɫɨɤɪɚɬɢɬɶ ɟɺ ɩɨɬɟɧɰɢɚɥ [7].
Ƚȼ ± ɝɚɦɦɚ-ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɢ, ɜɫɩɵɲɤɢ ɝɚɦɦɚ-ɥɭɱɟɣ, ɞɥɹɳɢɟɫɹ ɧɟɫɤɨɥɶɤɨ ɫɟɤɭɧɞ ɢ
ɚɫɫɨɰɢɢɪɭɸɳɢɟɫɹ ɫ ɜɵɫɨɤɨ-ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɦ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɦ ɢɡɥɭɱɟɧɢɟɦ. ȼɫɟ ɡɚɦɟɱɟɧɧɵɟ
ɝɚɦɦɚ-ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɢ ɩɪɢɲɥɢ ɢɡɜɧɟ Ɇɥɟɱɧɨɝɨ ɉɭɬɢ, ɧɨ ɬɟɦ ɧɟ ɦɟɧɟɟ, ɫɜɹɡɚɧɧɵɣ ɤɥɚɫɫ
ɮɟɧɨɦɟɧɨɜ, ɦɹɝɤɢɟ ɩɨɜɬɨɪɹɸɳɢɟɫɹ ɝɚɦɦɚ-ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɢ, ɨɬɧɨɫɹɬɫɹ ɤ ɦɚɝɧɟɬɚɪɚɦ ɢɡ ɧɚɲɟɣ
ɝɚɥɚɤɬɢɤɢ. Ȼɵɥɨ ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɨ, ɱɬɨ ɝɚɦɦɚ-ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɢ ɜɧɭɬɪɢ Ɇɥɟɱɧɨɝɨ ɉɭɬɢ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɜɵɡɜɚɬɶ
ɧɚ Ɂɟɦɥɟ ɦɚɫɫɨɜɨɟ ɜɵɦɢɪɚɧɢɟ [30].
ȻȺɄ ± Ȼɨɥɶɲɨɣ Ⱥɞɪɨɧɧɵɣ Ʉɨɥɥɚɣɞɟɪ, ɤɪɭɩɧɟɣɲɢɣ ɭɫɤɨɪɢɬɟɥɶ ɱɚɫɬɢɰ, ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɧɵɣ ɜ
27 ɤɦ ɬɭɧɧɟɥɟ ɧɚ 175 ɦɟɬɪɨɜ ɧɢɠɟ ɭɪɨɜɧɹ ɡɟɦɥɢ ɧɚ ɝɪɚɧɢɰɵ ɦɟɠɞɭ Ɏɪɚɧɰɢɟɣ ɢ
ɒɜɟɣɰɚɪɢɟɣ, ɧɟɩɨɞɚɥɺɤɭ ɨɬ ɀɟɧɟɜɵ, ɒɜɟɣɰɚɪɢɹ. ȻȺɄ ɛɵɥ ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧ ɩɨ ɡɚɤɚɡɭ
ȿɜɪɨɩɟɣɫɤɨɝɨ ɫɨɜɟɬɚ ɹɞɟɪɧɵɯ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɣ ɢ ɧɚɱɚɥ ɫɜɨɸ ɪɚɛɨɬɭ ɜ ɤɨɧɰɟ 2009 ɝɨɞɚ.
Myr ± ɦɢɥɥɢɨɧ (106
) ɥɟɬ, ɝɥɚɜɧɟɣɲɚɹ ɟɞɢɧɢɰɚ ɢɡɦɟɪɟɧɢɹ ɝɟɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɢ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɨɣ
ɩɪɟɢɫɬɨɪɢɢ.
ɈɁɈ ± ɨɤɨɥɨɡɟɦɧɨɣ ɨɛɴɟɤɬ, ɨɛɴɟɤɬ ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ, ɨɛɵɱɧɨ ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞ ɢɥɢ ɤɨɦɟɬɚ,
ɨɪɛɢɬɚ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɜɨɞɢɬ ɟɝɨ ɧɟɞɚɥɟɤɨ ɨɬ Ɂɟɦɥɢ, ɬɚɤɢɦ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɦ ɫɨɡɞɚɜɚɹ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɭɸ
ɭɝɪɨɡɭ. (Ɉɱɟɧɶ ɦɚɥɟɧɶɤɢɟ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɵ, ɪɚɡɦɟɪɨɦ ɞɨ 50 ɦɟɬɪɨɜ, ɨɛɵɱɧɨ ɧɚɡɵɜɚɸɬɫɹ
ɦɟɬɟɨɪɧɵɦɢ ɬɟɥɚɦɢ ɢ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɚɦɢ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɨɝɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɢɫɯɨɠɞɟɧɢɹ, ɧɚɩɨɞɨɛɢɟ
ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɚɩɩɚɪɚɬɚ, ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɧɚ ɫɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɨɪɛɢɬɟ).
ɩɫ ± ɩɚɪɫɟɤ (ɨɬ «ɩɚɪɚɥɥɚɤɫɚ ɭɝɥɨɜɨɣ ɫɟɤɭɧɞɵ»), ɝɥɚɜɧɚɹ ɟɞɢɧɢɰɚ ɢɡɦɟɪɟɧɢɹ, ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɭɟɦɚɹ
ɜ ɚɫɬɪɨɧɨɦɢɢ ɢ ɫɜɹɡɚɧɧɵɯ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɹɯ. 1 ɩɫ = 3.085668 × 1016
ɦɟɬɪɨɜ = 3.262 ɫɜɟɬɨɜɵɯ ɝɨɞɚ.
Ȼɥɢɡɥɟɠɚɳɚɹ ɤ ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɟ ɡɜɟɡɞɚ ɧɚɯɨɞɢɬɫɹ ɧɚ ɪɚɫɫɬɨɹɧɢɢ ~1 ɩɫ.
ɋɇ ± ɫɜɟɪɯɧɨɜɚɹ ɡɜɟɡɞɚ, ɜɡɪɵɜ ɥɢɛɨ ɤɪɭɩɧɨɣ ɡɜɟɡɞɵ (ɛɨɥɟɟ ɞɟɜɹɬɢ ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɵɯ ɦɚɫɫ), ɥɢɛɨ
ɛɟɥɨɝɨ ɤɚɪɥɢɤɚ ɜ ɛɢɧɚɪɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɟ.
Ɏɚɧɟɪɨɡɨɣ (ɷɨɧ) ± ɩɪɨɞɨɥɠɚɸɳɢɣɫɹ ɜ ɧɚɲɟ ɜɪɟɦɹ ɷɨɧ, ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɡɭɟɬɫɹ ɨɛɢɥɢɟɦ
ɪɚɫɬɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɣ ɢ ɠɢɜɨɬɧɨɣ ɠɢɡɧɢ. ɋɱɢɬɚɟɬɫɹ, ɱɬɨ ɤɟɦɛɪɢɣɫɤɢɣ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɧɚɱɚɥɨɦ
ɷɬɨɝɨ ɷɨɧɚ (ɩɨɪɹɞɤɚ 545 Myr ɧɚɡɚɞ).
Ȼɥɚɝɨɞɚɪɧɨɫɬɢ
Ɇɵ ɛɥɚɝɨɞɚɪɢɦ ɬɪɺɯ ɚɧɨɧɢɦɧɵɯ ɪɟɰɟɧɡɟɧɬɨɜ ɠɭɪɧɚɥɚ Risk Analysis ɡɚ ɜɞɭɦɱɢɜɵɟ
ɤɨɦɦɟɧɬɚɪɢɢ ɢ ɭɦɟɫɬɧɭɸ ɤɪɢɬɢɤɭ ɩɪɟɞɵɞɭɳɟɣ ɜɟɪɫɢɢ ɫɬɚɬɶɢ. ȼɵɪɚɠɚɟɦ ɨɫɨɛɭɸ
ɛɥɚɝɨɞɚɪɧɨɫɬɶ Gaverick Jason Matheny ɢ Rebecca Roache ɡɚ ɢɯ ɜɧɢɦɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɟ ɩɪɨɱɬɟɧɢɟ ɷɬɨ
ɫɬɚɬɶɢ, ɩɪɢɜɟɞɲɟɟ ɤ ɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɦɭ ɭɥɭɱɲɟɧɢɸ. Ɂɚ ɛɟɫɟɞɵ ɧɚɞ ɬɟɦɚɬɢɤɨɣ ɫɬɚɬɶɢ ɦɵ
ɬɚɤɠɟ ɩɪɢɡɧɚɬɟɥɶɧɵ Jelena Andrejić, Fred C. Adams, Bill Napier, and Zoran Knežević. We
56. thank Richard B. Cathcart, Aleksandar Zorkić, Maja Bulatović, Dušan Inđić, Srdjan Samurović,
Branislav K. Nikolić, Samir Salim, Nikola Milutinović, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɤɨɧɫɨɪɰɢɭɦɭ ɛɢɛɥɢɨɬɟɤ
KoBSON ɡɚ ɢɯ ɜɧɢɦɚɬɟɥɶɧɭɸ ɬɟɯɧɢɱɟɫɤɭɸ ɩɨɦɨɳɶ. Ɉɞɢɧ ɢɡ ɚɜɬɨɪɨɜ (M.M.Ć) ɩɨɥɭɱɢɥ
ɱɚɫɬɢɱɧɭɸ ɩɨɞɞɟɪɠɤɭ ɨɬ Ministry of Science and Technological Development of the Republic
of Serbia, ɝɪɚɧɬ ON146012, ɢ ɛɥɚɝɨɞɚɪɢɬ Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University ɡɚ
ɢɯ ɝɨɫɬɟɩɪɢɢɦɫɬɜɨ ɩɪɢ ɪɚɛɨɬɟ ɧɚɞ ɩɪɨɟɤɬɨɦ.
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![Ʉɥɸɱɟɜɵɟ ɫɥɨɜɚ: ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ, ɭɝɪɨɡɵ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɸ, ɩɪɢɪɨɞɧɵɟ
ɨɩɚɫɧɨɫɬɢ, ɚɫɬɪɨɛɢɨɥɨɝɢɹ, ɷɮɮɟɤɬɵ ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ, ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɵɣ ɩɪɢɧɰɢɩ, ɭɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɟ ɪɢɫɤɚɦɢ,
ɭɝɪɨɡɵ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɣ, ɮɚɡɨɜɵɣ ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞ ɜɚɤɭɭɦɚ.
1. ȼɜɟɞɟɧɢɟ: ɭɝɪɨɡɵ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɸ ɢ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɵ
ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ
ɑɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɫɬɨɢɬ ɩɟɪɟɞ ɪɹɞɨɦ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɭɝɪɨɡ, ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɧɵɯ ɤɚɤ ɜ ɛɥɢɡɤɨɦ, ɬɚɤ ɢ
ɞɚɥɺɤɨɦ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɦ. Ⱦɥɹ ɥɸɛɨɝɨ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɤɚ, ɡɚɢɧɬɟɪɟɫɨɜɚɧɧɨɝɨ ɜ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɦ ɧɚɲɟɝɨ
ɛɢɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɜɢɞɚ, ɷɬɢ ɭɝɪɨɡɵ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɬ ɬɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɢɧɬɟɪɟɫ; ɨɧɢ ɬɚɤɠɟ
ɧɚɩɪɹɦɭɸ ɫɜɹɡɚɧɵ ɫ ɩɪɢɧɢɦɚɟɦɵɦɢ ɫɟɣɱɚɫ ɩɪɢɤɥɚɞɧɵɦɢ ɢ ɫɬɪɚɬɟɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɦɢ ɪɟɲɟɧɢɹɦɢ.
Ɉɛɳɟɟ ɩɨɧɢɦɚɧɢɟ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɵɯ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ ɜɨɡɪɨɫɥɨ ɛɥɚɝɨɞɚɪɹ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɧɢɦ
ɨɬɤɪɵɬɢɹɦ ɜ ɝɟɨɯɢɦɢɢ, ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɱɟɥɨɜɟɤɚ, ɚɫɬɪɨɮɢɡɢɤɢ ɢ ɦɨɥɟɤɭɥɹɪɧɨɣ ɛɢɨɥɨɝɢɢ [1-6].
ɗɬɨ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɬ ɩɨɞɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɨ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ, ɧɚɡɵɜɚɟɦɵɯ ɭɝɪɨɡɚɦɢ
ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɸ (existential risks -ɍɋ), ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɩɪɢɜɟɫɬɢ ɥɢɛɨ ɤ ɭɧɢɱɬɨɠɟɧɢɸ
ɪɚɡɭɦɧɨɣ ɠɢɡɧɢ ɧɚ Ɂɟɦɥɟ, ɥɢɛɨ ɧɚɜɫɟɝɞɚ ɢ ɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɚɬ ɟɺ ɩɨɬɟɧɰɢɚɥ [7]. ȼ
ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɨɜ ɍɋ ɦɨɠɧɨ ɜɡɹɬɶ ɬɨɬɚɥɶɧɭɸ ɹɞɟɪɧɭɸ ɜɨɣɧɭ, ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɢ 10-ɤɦ (ɢɥɢ
ɛɨɥɶɲɟɝɨ) ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɚ ɢɥɢ ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɫ Ɂɟɦɥɺɣ, ɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɟ ɢɥɢ ɫɥɭɱɚɣɧɨɟ
ɡɥɨɭɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɟ ɛɢɨ- ɢɥɢ ɧɚɧɨ ɬɟɯɧɨɥɨɝɢɣ, ɢɥɢ ɧɟɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɟɧɧɨ ɪɚɫɬɭɳɟɟ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɟ
ɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɟ.
ɋɭɳɟɫɬɜɭɟɬ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɨ ɬɚɤɫɨɧɨɦɢɣ ɍɋ [7]. Ɍɚɤɫɨɧɨɦɢɹ, ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɧɚɹ ɧɚ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɧɵɯ
ɮɚɤɬɨɪɚɯ, ɧɚɦ ɩɨɞɯɨɞɢɬ ɛɨɥɶɲɟ ɜɫɟɝɨ. Ɇɵ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɚɟɦ: (1) ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɟ ɍɋ (ɫɬɨɥɤɧɨɜɟɧɢɹ
ɫ ɚɫɬɟɪɨɢɞɚɦɢ ɢ ɤɨɦɟɬɚɦɢ, ɫɭɩɟɪɜɭɥɤɚɧɢɡɦ, ɧɟɚɧɬɪɨɩɨɝɟɧɧɵɟ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ, ɜɡɪɵɜɵ
ɫɜɟɪɯɧɨɜɵɯ ɡɜɺɡɞ, ɝɚɦɦɚ-ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɢ, ɫɥɭɱɚɣɧɵɣ ɮɚɡɨɜɵɣ ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞ ɜɚɤɭɭɦɚ); (2)
ɚɧɬɪɨɩɨɝɟɧɧɵɟ ɍɋ (ɹɞɟɪɧɚɹ ɜɨɣɧɚ, ɛɢɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮɵ, ɢɫɤɭɫɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɣ ɢɧɬɟɥɥɟɤɬ,
ɧɚɧɨɬɟɯɧɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɪɢɫɤɢ); (3) ɩɪɨɦɟɠɭɬɨɱɧɵɟ ɍɋ, ɜɵɡɵɜɚɟɦɵɟ ɜɡɚɢɦɨɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɟɦ
ɱɟɥɨɜɟɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɢ ɩɪɢɪɨɞɵ (ɧɨɜɵɟ ɛɨɥɟɡɧɢ, ɧɟɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɟɧɧɨ ɪɚɫɬɭɳɟɟ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɟ ɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɟ).
Ⱦɚɥɟɟ, ɦɵ ɜ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɦ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɦ ɟɫɬɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɟ ɍɋ [8].
ɐɟɥɶɸ ɞɚɧɧɨɣ ɫɬɚɬɶɢ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɨɜ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ,
ɜɥɢɹɸɳɢɯ ɧɚ ɨɰɟɧɤɭ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɍɋ ɢ ɫɩɨɫɨɛɧɵɯ ɩɪɢɜɧɟɫɬɢ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɟ
ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟ ɜ ɚɧɚɥɢɡ ɪɢɫɤɨɜ1
. Ⱥɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɟ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɨɛɴɹɫɧɟɧɚ ɱɟɪɟɡ ɮɨɪɦɭ
ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟ ɜ ɜɵɛɨɪɤɟ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɨɜ, ɩɪɢ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɣ ɜɵɛɢɪɚɟɬɫɹ ɩɨɞɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɨ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɨɜ,
ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɨ ɫɜɹɡɚɧɧɵɯ ɫ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɟɦ, ɜɦɟɫɬɨ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɚ ɫɨɛɵɬɢɣ, ɩɨɥɧɨɫɬɶɸ
ɨɯɜɚɬɵɜɚɸɳɟɝɨ ɩɪɟɞɦɟɬɧɭɸ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɶ. Ɇɵ ɩɨɤɚɡɵɜɚɟɦ, ɱɬɨ ɷɮɮɟɤɬ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɣ
ɫɟɥɟɤɰɢɢ ɞɟɥɚɟɬ ɧɟɧɚɞɺɠɧɵɦɢ ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɩɪɨɲɥɵɯ ɍɋ. Ɇɵ
ɭɬɜɟɪɠɞɚɟɦ, ɱɬɨ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɟ ɢɫɤɚɠɟɧɢɟ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɩɪɢɜɟɫɬɢ ɤ ɧɟɞɨɨɰɟɧɤɟ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɪɹɞɚ
ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ.
1
Ⱦɥɹ ɨɛɡɨɪɚ ɥɢɬɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɨɛ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɵɯ ɩɪɢɧɰɢɩɚɯ ɢ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɧɨɦ ɦɵɲɥɟɧɢɢ, ɫɦ. Barrow and Tipler; Balashov;
and Bostrom [56-58].](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)