Six pathways toward a vulnerability science for adaptation

1. Six pathways toward a vulnerability science
for adaptation to climatic hazards
Thomas E. Downing,
Stockholm Environment Institute
www.VulnerabilityNet.org

2. Six pathways
•Frame concepts and define vulnerability
•Link qualitative narratives and quantitative data
•Choose indicators that reflect an agreed
framework
•Depict the multiple attributes of vulnerability
•Link assessment of vulnerability to evaluation
of adaptation
•Represent dynamic vulnerability in coupled
socio-ecological systems

3. I: Conceptual framings
• Is there a common framework?
• Has vulnerability been defined?
• Are frameworks and definitions common among
stakeholders?
– exposure unit
– threat
– consequences

4. I: Example
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
HAZARD
VULNERABILITY

5. I: Example
• Strengths
• Weaknesses

6. I: Example
• Strengths Weaknesses

7. I: Example
• Strengths
• Weaknesses

8. I: On definitions
TV c
s,g
G = Group:
 Smallholder farmers
 Pastoralists
 Urban poor
S = Sector:
 Agriculture
 Urban
 Water
T = Threat:
 Climate change
 Drought
 Flood
 Economic recession
C = Consequence:
 Loss of life
 Health and morbidity
 Economic impacts on production,
assets
Social stress

9. II: Link qualitative narrative and
quantitative assessment
• Understanding the context
• Depicting multiple stresses
• Representing the stories of the vulnerable

10. II: Example
CLIMATIC HAZARDS
Drought Dry spells Floods Warm spells
Smallholders ▲ □ □ ◦
Emerging
farmers
□ ○ ○ ◦
Traders □ ◦ ■ ◦
• Livelihood exposure to climatic hazards
• Relative ranking of priorities

11. II: Example
• Livelihood mapping to frame drought exposure

12. III: Choose indicators that capture the conceptual
understanding of vulnerability
• Agree a conceptual map with stakeholders
• Focus on sequence of drivers and outcomes
Human
Needs:
Nutrition
Human
Wants:
Dietary
preference
Choice of
Means:
Cropping
system
Initiating
Events:
Drought
Intermediate
Events:
Crop failure
Outcome:
Household
food
scarcity
Exposure:
Hunger of
household
members
Consequence:
Morbidity,
Loss of livelihood
Consequence:
Death
Modify
Wants:
Alter choice
of foods
Modify
Means:
Choose
drought
crops
Cope with
Event:
Irrigate
Cope with
Event:
Replant
Cope with
Outcome:
Sell assets,
buy food
Block
Exposure:
Migrate to
find food
Mitigate
Consequence:
Reduce activity
Mitigate
Consequence:
Emergency relief,
recovery,
rehabilitation

13. IV: Depict multiple attributes of
vulnerability
• Stakeholder validation
• Avoid reducing vulnerability to a single dimension
• Elicit formal knowledge to validate expert models
Drought-food security
Climate
Water & Land
Health
Economy
Socio-institutional
Demography

14. IV: Example
Vulnerability Profile, Delanta Dawunt, Ethiopia
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
HH Size
Male laborers
Total Income
Total Expenditure
Crops sales price in bad year
Food Aid
Grazing land
Crop land
Mid Altitude
Road Access
Livestock holdings
Types of dairy
Low income crop (V High)
Middle income crop (High)
Crop/dairy (Mod)
Isolated, middle income crop (Mod)
High income dairy (Mod)

15. V: Link vulnerability and evaluation of
adaptation
• Targeting and priorities
– Those most vulnerable at present
– And in the future?
• Criteria for evaluating adaptation options
– Effect on incomes of the poor
– Reduction is losses from current climatic hazards
– Synergies with poverty reduction strategies

16. VI: Represent dynamic vulnerability
• Elicit responses to a
range of scenarios
• Construct rules for a
decision tree
• Iterate with vulnerable
groups and experts
• Link to dynamic models

17. Vulnerability: Translating global change to
outcomes through actors
GLOBAL CHANGE:
Climate
Economy
Lifestyle
Population
RISK MANAGEMENT:
Objectives
Criteria
Plans
OUTCOME:
Health and Safety
Economic Welfare
Lifestyle and Amenity
Environmental Quality
ACTORS
Local
Global
Individual Corporate
Implementation
Policy
European
Union
WTO
Water
Utilities
Farmers