Presentation at the 5th Global Science Conference on Climate-Smart Agriculture. Title: Food System Resilience in the context of CSA Speaker: John Ingram & Bill Bellotti

1. Food System
Resilience in the
context of CSA
John Ingram & Bill Bellotti

2. Introduction [John Ingram]
Invited papers:
The ‘missing middle’
[Susannah Sallu]
Decision-making across the
whole food system [Angela
Hansen]
Discussion

3. What are Food System functions?
FOOD
UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
Food Security
Other Societal Interests
• Health
• Income
• Profit
• Rural development
• Employment
• Environment
• Landscape
• Ecosystem services
• Animal welfare
• …STABILITY

4. “The capacity over time of a food system and its units
at multiple levels, to provide sufficient, adequate and
accessible food to all, in the face of various and even
unforeseen disturbances.” – just relates to Food Security
So what is
‘Food System Resilience’?
Enhanced understanding needed to:
 accommodate different perspectives looking at a
common problem (esp. concerning multiple societal
goals)
 be based on use of evidence in a value-laden debate

5. Defining Resilience
4 Questions
1. Of what?
2. To what?
3. For whom?
4. Over what time period?
Adapted from: Helfgott, European Journal of Operational Research, 2017

6. Food System OUTCOMES
Food
Utilisation
Food
Access
Food
Availability
Food SecuritySocial Welfare
• Income
• Employment
• Health
• Social capital
• Political capital
• Ethics
• …
Environment
• Climate change
• Water availability
• Water quality
• Biodiversity
• Biogeochemistry
• Soil degradation
• …
Food System
Functioning
(Activities)
1. Of what?
Adapted from: Ingram, Food Security, 2011
Food
System
Function
(Outcomes)
OR

7. “Stream Trains” “Black Swans”
Easily perceived drivers and
trends that will influence
change - direct and indirect
Unimagined, rare and/or
unpredictable events that
have a big impact
2. To what?
Food System Stresses and Shocks

8. 2. To what?
Food System Stresses and Shocks
Stress
pressure or tension
exerted on a system
[Steam Trains]
Shock
sudden surprising event
affecting a system
[Black Swans]
Demography
Social & cultural norms
Natural resource degradation
Climate change
Urbanisation
Automation
Science & technology
Geopolitics

9. 2. To what?
Food System Stresses and Shocks
Stress
pressure or tension
exerted on a system
[Steam Trains]
Shock
sudden surprising event
affecting a system
[Grey Swans]
Demography Trade wars
Social & cultural norms Election and Referenda results
Natural resource degradation Food scares
Climate change Extreme weather
Urbanisation Conflict
Automation Geophysical events
Science & technology
Geopolitics

10. 3. For whom?
Food system ‘actors’
Input
industry
Farmers,
fishermen
Con-
summers
Waste
process,
sewage
Subsistence farmers
Retailers,
food service
Food
industry
Traders,
processors
Noting they are all influenced by a range of ‘drivers’
(policy, economic, social, env, S&T, …)
.... and all have a range of motives

11. 4. Over what time period?
• Short-term interruptions (usually due to shocks) to e.g.:
• Fishing or agricultural activities (due to e.g. extreme weather)
• Critical ingredient shortfall (due to e.g. disease outbreak)
• Just in time groceries delivery (due to e.g. IT malfunction)
• Consumer shopping patterns (due to e.g. food scares)
• Longer-term disruptions (usually due to stresses) to e.g.:
• Natural resource degradation
• Energy price
• Low-carbon emission regulations
• Change in dietary preferences

12. To help policymakers and practitioners optimise
the resilience of the UK’s food system to
environmental, biological, economic, social and
geopolitical shocks.
£14.5m: 5-year programme 2016-2021
Resilience of the UK Food
System in a Global Context

13. 13 Research Projects
range of commodities and systems
1. Fresh fruit and vegetables
2. Global shocks
3. Pig industry
4. Food chains
5. Bananas
6. Dairy systems
7. Grazing systems
8. Phosphorus use
9. Pollinators
10. Livestock in remote, upland regions
11. Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA)
12. Rural-Urban interfaces
13. Regional food systems

14. Strategies for Resilience of
Food System Outcomes
1. Robustness Aim to resist disruption to existing FS outcomes
2. Recovery Aim to return to existing FS outcomes after
disruption [bounce back]
3. Reorientation Aim to accept alternative FS outcomes before or
after disruption [bounce forward]
(transformation)
All involve
Reorganisation Making changes to the system activities
(adaptation) either directly or via ‘environments’