Managing Today's Complex Crises: Lessons From the Past
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1) Complex disasters are increasing due to factors like climate change, technology, and interconnected infrastructure and systems. Lessons must be learned from past events to reduce future risks. 2) Cascading failures across critical infrastructure like energy, water, and communications can severely impact health, emergency response, and other sectors. Contingency plans need to account for impacts across multiple domains. 3) Disaster governance requires participatory approaches, clear communication, and applying lessons learned to continually improve civil protection systems for future complex challenges.
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Managing Today's Complex Crises: Lessons From the Past
- 1. Prof. David Alexander MANAGING TODAY'S COMPLEX CRISES: LESSONS FROM THE PAST
- 3. Analysis • registered • archived • forgotten • ignored Vulnerability maintained - • utilised • adopted • learned Disaster risk reduced + Lessons Past events If lessons are learned there will be measurable positive change
- 4. LESSONS TO BE LEARNED Are the lessons sustainable? What lessons? In the public interest? Whose interests: public or private? Culturally acceptable? Effect of uncertainty, unpredictability?
- 5. Rev. Dr Samuel Henry Prince "Sammy the Prince"
- 6. 1920
- 7. Will the disasters--and the disaster risk reduction--of the future be anything like what happened in the past?
- 8. COMPLEXITY
- 11. Knock-on effects of electricity failure:- • water: no pumping, wastewater discharge or treatment • energy: heat and air conditioning down, gas unusable • food: no refrigeration; quick contamination • health: reliance on hospital generators • transport: no traffic control, no fuel pumping • communications: no mass-communications at all • finance: no money supply • government: cannot communicate with the people • emergency services: hampered and over-stretched.
- 12. RISK cascading risk tightly-coupled systems and critical infrastructure compound risk multiple extreme events interacting risk environmental drivers interconnected risk interdependent natural, human and technological systems composite risk any and all? COMPLEXITY
- 13. Climate change Terrorism Displacement and migration Pandemics and epidemics Population increase Environmental change Conflict Technological disasters and major incidents Natural hazard impacts
- 15. Covid-19: the most complex and pervasive disaster for three quarters of a century.
- 16. Performance of health system [or care at home] Performance of governmental system for making and implementing decisions [or ad hoc decisions] Performance of organisations and their BCM units [or improvisation and reliance on other assets] Performance of the mass media [or informal social networks] Performance of family economy [or kinship networks] Public fear and anxiety Loss of earnings and financial security Provision of medical assistance Measures and policing functions Business continuity and viability COVID-19 elements
- 17. Disease and infection • transmissibility • infection rate Exposure • front line workers • Lock-down, shielding, isolation Morbidity and mortality • vulnerable categories • environmental factors Economic effects • reduced commerce • loss of employment • business failure • reduction in tax revenue Social effects • solidarity and voluntarism • social tension • protest, crime, 'deviant' behaviour • social polarisation Psychological effects • increased mental illness • depression • family conflict Policies, legislation, communication Recovery • a new normal • legacy The environment in which a pandemic occurs
- 18. Theory is our roadmap. It helps make complex situations clear. Towards a renewal of theory for the 21st century: we cannot afford to allow theory to lag behind events and developments.
- 19. CAUSES
- 21. The "egg hypothesis" Disaster • vulnerabilities • prima facie causes • dynamic pressures • root causes Context • general vulnerability • poverty • deprivation • marginalisation • discrimination
- 22. HAZARD or THREAT SPECIFIC VULNERABILITY HUMAN CONSEQUENCES The 'hazardscape' or the 'risk landscape' WEAKENING of the SOCIAL FABRIC GENERAL VULNERABILITY HUMAN CONSEQUENCES The 'wreckage economy' Health Employment Services • reduced • rationed • overpriced
- 24. CONSEQUENCES
- 25. HAZARD/THREAT DISASTER VULNERABILITY WEAKENING OF SOCIAL FABRIC GENERAL VULNERABILITY HUMAN CONSEQUENCES The 'hazardscape' or 'risk landscape' The 'wreckage economy'
- 26. Escalation Vulnerability scenarios Risk scenario Primary impact Secondary impacts Cascade path Cascade path Hazard event(s) After Nones & Pescaroli 2016, Pescaroli & Nones 2016 Interaction between vulnerabilities Legislation Management Time-space transitions
- 27. Primary cause of disaster Impact on critical infrastructure Impact on housing Impact on productive capacity Direct impacts Indirect impacts Impact on activities Secondary impacts Impact on activities Impact on revenue Secondary cause of disaster Impact on well-being Impact on safety Impact on recovery Cascade Escalation
- 28. Lesson: in cascading disasters, contingencies have to be managed (and planned for) in many different sectors.
- 29. Direct causes: practical problems contributing to disaster Long-term causes (dynamic pressures): predisposition to create disaster Root causes: motivating and underlying factors Local cascading effects National cascading effects International cascading effects Escalation factors Context
- 30. Politics in the service of economics DISASTER POLITICS ECONOMICS SOCIAL CONDITIONS PHYSICAL IMPACT VULNERABILITY Knowledge is ideology Underlying risk drivers Complexity Ideology • extremism • separatism • isolationism • exclusion Conflict Climate change Demographic change • human mobility Culture Technology
- 32. Cyber crime (illegal activity) deception theft Digital terrorism (sabotage) computer viruses ransomware Digital influence (subversion) spreading false information Digital extremism (on-line intervention) conspiracy theories character assassination incitement to violence MISUSE OF THE INTERNET AND SOCIAL MEDIA
- 33. CASCADING DISASTERS The confluence of social and technical factors “Digital authoritarianism”:- • influence not sabotage (i.e., subversion) • dissident groups AND state actors "Digital extremism":- • reality - perception - opinions - action • anomie (Durkheim 1893): a condition of instability resulting from a breakdown of standards and values or from a lack of purpose or ideals
- 34. LOSS OF HUMAN RIGHTS PROXY WAR, CONFLICT & POLARISATION POVERTY & MARGINALISATION 'WRECKAGE ECONOMY' & RISE OF THE PRECARIAT LACK OF DISASTER GOVERNANCE CORRUPTION & LOSS OF TRUST ANOMIE NIHILISM constraints upon life and safety Anomie (Durkheim 1893) is a condition of instability resulting from a breakdown of standards and values or from a lack of purpose or ideals.
- 36. INTERSECTIONALITY SOVEREIGNTY DEMOCRACY MOBILITY IDENTITY HUMAN RIGHTS LEGALITY ENTITLEMENT ANTI- CORRUPTION WELFARE COMPLEX DISASTERS
- 37. Intersectionality - borrowed (with apologies) from studies of race and culture Intersection of: • forms of disaster causality • different kinds of disaster and crisis • disaster and its context • disaster and social circumstances
- 38. welfare mobility sovreignty identity rights proxy wars democracy legality
- 39. The role of welfare:- • define welfare • provide needed support • solve problems of equity • welfare helps stop unrest
- 40. Lesson: we need to plan and prepare for intersectional events that occur concurrently and mutually affect one another.
- 42. Evolutionary approach to emergency management Proxy Participatory Civil defence Civil protection Command and control Vertical chain of command Population excluded Law and order Secrecy Collaboration Task forces Population consulted and included Problem solving Openness
- 43. Lesson: civil protection needs to be participatory and inclusive at all levels of organisation.
- 44. A greater role for emergency plans and planners, risk managers and emergency managers:- • bridge the gulf between plans and their implementation, especially for logistics and communication • find, test, trace, isolate, support • supply chain logistics are paramount at all scales
- 45. Lesson: 'disaster science' needs a seat at the strategy table: planning, logistics, scheduling, communication
- 46. Communication and role models:- • communication must be constant and correct • messages must be clear, consistent, reliable and verifiable • major figures must act as role models
- 47. CONCLUSIONS
- 48. Conclusions:- • participatory democracy is the key to disaster risk reduction and it must be founded on human rights • inequality and inequity often result from poor human rights and may be diagnostic of poor rights • the foundation of rights is shifting as the world goes rapidly through momentous changes
- 49. Lesson: countries need integral, functional civil protection systems. Given the future challenges, these also need to be larger and better than at present.
- 50. Operational Locally generated needs International liaison Locally generated needs Global monitoring and coordination Local response capacity Local response capacity Local response capacity Regional harmonisation Local response capacity Regional harmonisation National coordination CIVIL PROTECTION SYSTEM
- 51. General resilience Disaster mitigation Disaster response Disaster response How it should be How it is Disaster mitigation Disaster resilience
- 52. “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” (George Santayana) ...but we cannot continue to plan for the last disaster instead of the next one.