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Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
# 11 Observations, Experiments & Causality
Arthur Charpentier (Universit´e du Qu´ebec `a Montr´eal)
Machine Learning & Econometrics
SIDE Summer School - July 2019
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 1
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Causal Inference
“Social scientists know that large amounts
of data will not overcome the selection
problems that make causal inference so dif-
ficult”, Grimmer (2015, We Are All Social
Scientists Now: How Big Data, Machine
Learning, and Causal Inference Work To-
gether)
(source Pearl & Mackenzie (2018, The
Book of Why))
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 2
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Causality and Counterfactuals
“we may define a cause to be an object, followed by another, and where all the
objects similar to the first are followed by objects similar to the second. Or in
other words where, if the first object had not been, the second never had existed”,
Hume (1748, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding)
Classical conditional : if X occurred, then Y occurred
Counterfactual : if X had not occurred, then Y would not have occurred
“no causation without manipulation”, Holland (1986, Statis-
tics and Causal Inference)
Importance of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) to describe
causal effects between variables
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 3
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Berkeley Gender Bias
Graduate admissions data from Berkeley, 1973
• men : 8442 applications, 44% admission rate
• women : 4321 applications, 35% admission rate
Discrimination towards women ?
A B C D E F
applied 825 560 325 417 191 373
M
admitted 62% 63% 37% 33% 28% 6%
applied 108 25 593 375 393 341
F
admitted 82% 68% 34% 35% 24% 7%
see Bickel et al. (1975, Sex bias in graduate admissions)
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 4
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Simpson’s Paradox & Ecological Fallacy
hosp. hosp.
A B
total 1000 1000
survivors 800 900
deads 200 100
rate (%) 80% 90%
hosp. hosp.
A B
total 600 900
survivors 590 870
deads 10 30
rate (%) 98% 97%
hosp. hosp.
A B
total 400 100
survivors 210 30
deads 190 70
rate (%) 53% 30%
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 5
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Simpson’s Paradox & Ecological Fallacy
Heuristically, it is possible to have
a
A
≤
b
B
and
c
C
≤
d
D
and at the same time
a + c
A + C
≥
b + d
B + D
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−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3−2024
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 6
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Simpson’s Paradox & Ecological Fallacy
Heuristically, it is possible to have
a
A
≤
b
B
and
c
C
≤
d
D
and at the same time
a + c
A + C
≥
b + d
B + D
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−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3−2024
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 7
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Simpson’s Paradox & Ecological Fallacy
Heuristically, it is possible to have
a
A
≤
b
B
and
c
C
≤
d
D
and at the same time
a + c
A + C
≥
b + d
B + D
q
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−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3−2024
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 8
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Simpson’s Paradox & Ecological Fallacy
Very important concept in political science
see Gelman (1986, Red State, Blue State, Rich State,
Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do)
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 9
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Conditional Independence or could a machine create a DAG ?
Conditional Independence
X ⊥⊥ Y |Z if and only if
• f(x, y|z) = f(x|z) · f(y|z)
• f(x, y, z) · f(z) = f(x, z) · f(y, z)
• f(y|x, z) = f(y|z)
i.e. once we know Z, learning the value of x does not provide additional
information about X
Partial Correlation
ρxy|z =
ρxy − ρxz · ρyz
(1 − ρ2
xz) · (1 − ρ2
yz)
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 10
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Conditional Independence or could a machine create a DAG ?
as X ⊥⊥ Y =⇒ ρxy = 0, X ⊥⊥ Y |Z =⇒ ρxy|z = 0
and if (X, Y, Z) is Gaussian, the converse is true
as ρxy = 0 =⇒ X ⊥⊥ Y, ρxy|z = 0 =⇒ X ⊥⊥ Y |Z
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 11
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Conditional Independence or could a machine create a DAG ?
Consider variables X1, X2, X3 and Y
We have
• X1 ⊥⊥ X2
• X1 ⊥⊥ X3
• X2 ⊥⊥ Y |X3
Using conditional independence tests,
remove edges, identify colliders and chains
(might not be a unique solution...)
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 12
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Conditional Independence or could a machine create a DAG ?
Assuming a Gaussian setting, Spirtes et al. (2000, Causation, Prediction, and
Search) suggested to test ρxy|z = 0 using
zn =
1
2
n − dim[z] − 3 log
|1 + ρxy|z|
|1 − ρxy|z|
One can also consider a non-parametric test, based on the distance
d(x, y, z) = f(x, y, z) · f(z) − f(x, z) · f(y, z)
(main issue here: curse of dimensionality)
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 13
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
From DAG to Structural Econometric Equations
There is a one-to-one mapping between a system of structural
equations and a graphical model
• X2 = β23X3 + β21X1 + η2
• X3 = β31X1 + η3
• Y = β3X3 + ε
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 14
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Observation and Experiment
Can we use observational data ?
Consider the following dataset (from Imai (2222) - resume.csv)
1 firstname
2 sex
3 race
4 callback
first name of the fictitious job applicant
sex of applicant, sex ∈ {female,male}
race of applicant, race ∈ {black,white}
whether a call back was made, call ∈ {0, 1}
See
1 firstname sex race callback
2 1 Allison female white 0
3 2 Kristen female white 0
4 3 Lakisha female black 0
5 4 Latonya female black 0
6 5 Carrie female white 0
7 6 Jay male white 0
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 15
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Observation and Experiment
It is experimental data, collected from an experimental research design, in which
a treatment variable is manipulated in order to examine its causal effects on an
outcome variable.
The treatment refers to the race of a fictitious applicant, implied by the name
given on the r´esum´e.
The outcome variable is whether the applicant receives a callback.
We are interested in examining whether or not the r´esum´es with different names
yield varying callback rates.
no call call total
black 2278 157 2435
white 2200 235 2435
total 4478 392 4870
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 16
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Observation and Experiment
Conditional probabilities
no call call total
black 50.87% 40.05% 50.00%
white 49.13% 59.95% 50.00%
total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
no call call total
black 93.55% 6.45% 100.00%
white 90.35% 9.65% 100.00%
total 91.95% 8.05% 100.00%
3.2% points difference...
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 17
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Observation and ExperimentAisha
Rasheed
Keisha
Tremayne
Kareem
Darnell
Tyrone
Hakim
Tamika
Lakisha
Tanisha
Todd
Jamal
Neil
Brett
Geoffrey
Brendan
Greg
Emily
Anne
Jill
Latoya
Kenya
Matthew
Latonya
Leroy
Allison
Ebony
Jermaine
Laurie
Sarah
Meredith
Carrie
Kristen
Jay
Brad
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
Aisha
Rasheed
Keisha
Tremayne
Kareem
Darnell
Tyrone
Hakim
Tamika
Lakisha
Tanisha
Todd
Jamal
Neil
Brett
Geoffrey
Brendan
Greg
Emily
Anne
Jill
Latoya
Kenya
Matthew
Latonya
Leroy
Allison
Ebony
Jermaine
Laurie
Sarah
Meredith
Carrie
Kristen
Jay
Brad
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 18
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Looking for a Conterfactual
1 firstname sex race callback
2 1 Allison female white 0
Would the same employer would have called back if the applicant’s name were
instead a stereotypically African-American.
Unfortunately, we would never observe this counterfactual outcome, because the
researchers who conducted this experiment did not send out the same r´esum´e to
the same employer using Lakisha as the first name.
Let t denote the treatment (the first name0) which sound African-American
(t = 1) or not (t = 0). Let y(t) denote the response (call back) as a function of
the treatment t. We do observe various covariate x = (x1, x2, · · · , xk) such as the
age, the education, etc.
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 19
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Looking for a Conterfactual
The dataset is here
black-sounding callback age education
i name t y(t = 1) y(t = 0) x1 x2
1 1 1 ? 20 college
2 0 ? 0 55 high school
3 0 ? 1 40 graduate school
We would like to quantify ceteris paribus y(1) − y(0) (called causal effect)
Fundamental problem of causal inference : we cannot observe the counterfactual
outcomes
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 20
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Looking for a Conterfactual
In observational studies, researchers do not conduct an intervention.
But they still want to quantify the impact of a policy. For instance the impact of
an increase of minimum wage on unemployment (see Card & Krueger (1994),
minwage.csv) )
In 1992, New Jersey (NJ) raised the minimum wage from 4.25to5.05 (per hour).
1 chain
2 location
3 wage_before
4 wage_after
5 full_before
6 full_after
7 part_before
8 part_after
name of fast-food restaurant chain
location of restaurants (centralNJ, northNJ, PA, shoreNJ, southNJ)
wage before minimum-wage increase
wage after minimum-wage increase
number of full-time employees
(before and after)
number of part-time employees
(before and after)
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 21
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Looking for a Conterfactual
One can look at a counterfactual, with a neighboring state - Pennsylvania (PA) -
that will be our control group
This would be a cross-section comparison design
NJ PA
below below
mean $5.5 mean $5.5
before $4.61 91.06% $4.65 94.03%
after $5.08 0.34% $4.61 95.52%
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 22
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Looking for a Conterfactual
NJ PA
partial full proportion partial full proportion
before 5423 2319 29.9% 1291 714 35.6%
after 5351 2446 31.4% 1339 547 29.0%
Difference-in-differences estimate,
DID = yafter
t=1 − ybefore
t=1
difference in the treatment group
− yafter
t=0 − ybefore
t=0
difference in the control group
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 23
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Observation and Experiment
q
q
q
q
Averageproportionofsalariesbelow$5.5(%)
q
q
q q
q q
020406080100
averagecausaleffect
NJ
PA
BEFORE AFTER
q
q
q
q
Averageproportionoffull...timeemployees(%)
q
q
q
q
q
q
20253035
averagecausaleffect
NJ
PA
BEFORE AFTER
(the counterfactual outcome for the treatment group has a time trend parallel to
that of the control group)
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 24
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Randomized Experiments
n individuals, that are either treated (ti = 1) or not (ti = 0). We observe
outcome yi for covariates xi.
We want to study potential outcomes yi(1) and yi(0)
turnout
yi(1) yi(0) ti x1,i x2,i
1 y1 ? 1 x1,1 x2,1
2 ? y2 0 x1,2 x2,2
...
...
...
...
...
...
n yn ? 1 x1,n x2,n
The causal effect is yi(1) − yi(0)
Assume no simultaneity, no interference between individuals and same treatment
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 25
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Randomized Experiments
ATE - Average Treatment Effect
Average Treatment Effect E Y (1) − Y (0)
Sample Average Treatment Effect
1
n
n
i=1
yi(1) − yi(0)
Assume randomization of the treatment assignment, n1 treated, n0 non treated
Assumption : (Y (1), Y (0)) ⊥⊥ T
Crude estimator (difference in means), τ =
1
n1 i:ti=1
yi −
1
n0 i:ti=0
yi, or
τ =
n
i=1
tiyi
n1
−
(1 − ti)yi
n0
Then E τ = E Y (1) − Y (0)
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 26
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Randomized Experiments
Intuition with a simple regression, yi(ti) = α + βti + εi, where E ε = 0.
Causal effect is measured by yi(1) − yi(0) = β
More generally, assume that ε is ε(t) - with E ε(T) = 0, then
yi(1) − yi(0) = β + εi(1) − εi(0). Thus β = E[Yi(1) − Yi(0)] (and β = E[Yi(1))
and α = E[Yi(0)]
One can consider a more general model, with yi(ti) = α + βti + ε(ti) where
E[ε(t)] = 0.
Then β = E[Yi(1) − Yi(0)] and α = E[Yi(0)] (as previously)
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 27
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Randomized Experiments
In this model - introduced in Neyman (1923, Sur les applications de la th´eorie des
probabilit´es aux exp´eriences agricoles) - (called Rubin-Neyman) let σ2
t = Var[ε(t)]
Since τ =
1
n1 i:ti=1
yi −
1
n0 i:ti=0
yi =
1
n1
n
i=1
ti · yi −
1
n0
n
i=1
(1 − ti) · yi
The variance estimate of τ is usually biased
E
σ2
(ti − t)2
−
σ2
0
n0
+
σ2
1
n1
=
(n1 − n0)(n − 1)
n1n0(n − 2)
σ2
1 − σ2
0
so bias is null when either n1 = n0 or σ2
1 = σ2
0.
But generally biased (even asymptotically).
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 28
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
(Cluster) Randomized Experiments
One can also consider some cluster randomized experiments : treatment is at
cluster level, see Bland (2004, Cluster randomised trials in the medical literature) or
Boruch et al. (2004, Estimating the effects of interventions that are deployed in
many places: place-randomized trials)
Consider clusters j = 1, · · · , m, outcome is yi,j, with treatment tj ∈ {0, 1}.
Assume random assignment, i.e. (Yi,j(1), Yi,j(0)) ⊥⊥ Tj.
And for convenience, assume that nj’s are equal...
τ =
1
m1 j:tj =1
yj −
1
m0 j:tj =0
yj where yj =
1
nj
nj
i=1
yi,j
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 29
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
(Cluster) Randomized Experiments
As before, E τ = E Y (1) − Y (0)
Exact variance is Var[τ] =
Var[Y (1)]
m1
+
Var[Y (0)]
m0
,
where Var[Y (t)] =
σ2
t
n
[1 + (n − 1)ρt] ≤ σ2
t
(due to (possible) intracluster correlation ρt)
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 30
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Observational Studies & Propensity Score
In the regression discontinuity design, we want to find an (arbitrary) cutoff point
c that determines the treatment assignment, i.e. ti = 1xi≥c.
We want to estimate E[Yi(1) − Yi(0)|Xi = c]
Identification of the Average Treatment Effect :
Assumption 1: Overlap, ∀x, P[T = 1|X = x] ∈ (0, 1)
Assumption 2: Ignorability (Y (1), Y (0)) ⊥⊥ T|X = x, ∀x
Set µ(t, x) = E[Yi(t)|T = t, X = x]
Crude estimator (difference in means),
τ =
1
n
n
i=1
µ(1, x) − µ(0, x)
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 31
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Observational Studies & Regression Discontinuity
See Imbens & Lemieux (2008, Regression Discontinuity Designs).
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 32
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Observational Studies & Regression Discontinuity
Consider the dataset from Lee (2008, Randomized ex-
periments from non-random selection in U.S. House
elections) - “How would the Democratic party have
performed in period 2, had they not held the seat (i.e.
had the Democrats lost the election in period 1)”
1 > library(RDDtools)
2 > data(Lee2008)
We want to test if there is a discontinuity
(in 0, x was rescaled here)
• with parametric tools
• with nonparametric tools
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−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
0.00.20.40.60.81.0
x
y
−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
0.00.20.40.60.81.0
x
y
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 33
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Observational Studies & Regression Discontinuity
Use some 4th order polynomial, on each part
1 > idx1 = (Lee2008$x >0)
2 > reg1 = lm(y˜poly(x ,4) ,data=Lee2008[idx1 ,])
3 > idx2 = (Lee2008$x <0)
4 > reg2 = lm(y˜poly(x ,4) ,data=Lee2008[idx2 ,])
5 > s1=predict(reg1 ,newdata=data.frame(x=0))
6 > s2=predict(reg2 ,newdata=data.frame(x=0))
7 > abs(s1 -s2)
8 1
9 0.07659014
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−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
0.00.20.40.60.81.0
x
y
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 34
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Observational Studies & Regression Discontinuity
1 > reg_para <- RDDreg_lm(RDDdata(y =
Lee2008$y, x = Lee2008$x, cutpoint
= 0), order = 4)
2 > reg_para
3 ### RDD regression: parametric ###
4 Polynomial order: 4
5 Slopes: separate
6 Number of obs: 6558 (left: 2740 ,
right: 3818)
7
8 Coefficient :
9 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
10 D 0.076590 0.013239 5.7851 7.582e -09
***
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−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
0.00.20.40.60.81.0
x
y
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 35
Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019
Observational Studies & Regression Discon-
tinuity
or use a simple local regression, see Imbens &
Kalyanaraman (2012).
1 > reg1 = ksmooth(Lee2008$x[idx1],
Lee2008$y[idx1], kernel = "normal",
bandwidth = 0.1)
2 > reg2 = ksmooth(Lee2008$x[idx2],
Lee2008$y[idx2], kernel = "normal",
bandwidth = 0.1)
3 > s1 = reg1$y[1]
4 > s2 = reg2$y[length(reg2$y)]
5 > abs(s1 -s2)
6 [1] 0.09883813
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−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
0.00.20.40.60.81.0
x
y
@freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 36
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11
Side 2019 #11

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Side 2019 #11

  • 1. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 # 11 Observations, Experiments & Causality Arthur Charpentier (Universit´e du Qu´ebec `a Montr´eal) Machine Learning & Econometrics SIDE Summer School - July 2019 @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 1
  • 2. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Causal Inference “Social scientists know that large amounts of data will not overcome the selection problems that make causal inference so dif- ficult”, Grimmer (2015, We Are All Social Scientists Now: How Big Data, Machine Learning, and Causal Inference Work To- gether) (source Pearl & Mackenzie (2018, The Book of Why)) @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 2
  • 3. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Causality and Counterfactuals “we may define a cause to be an object, followed by another, and where all the objects similar to the first are followed by objects similar to the second. Or in other words where, if the first object had not been, the second never had existed”, Hume (1748, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding) Classical conditional : if X occurred, then Y occurred Counterfactual : if X had not occurred, then Y would not have occurred “no causation without manipulation”, Holland (1986, Statis- tics and Causal Inference) Importance of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) to describe causal effects between variables @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 3
  • 4. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Berkeley Gender Bias Graduate admissions data from Berkeley, 1973 • men : 8442 applications, 44% admission rate • women : 4321 applications, 35% admission rate Discrimination towards women ? A B C D E F applied 825 560 325 417 191 373 M admitted 62% 63% 37% 33% 28% 6% applied 108 25 593 375 393 341 F admitted 82% 68% 34% 35% 24% 7% see Bickel et al. (1975, Sex bias in graduate admissions) @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 4
  • 5. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Simpson’s Paradox & Ecological Fallacy hosp. hosp. A B total 1000 1000 survivors 800 900 deads 200 100 rate (%) 80% 90% hosp. hosp. A B total 600 900 survivors 590 870 deads 10 30 rate (%) 98% 97% hosp. hosp. A B total 400 100 survivors 210 30 deads 190 70 rate (%) 53% 30% @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 5
  • 6. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Simpson’s Paradox & Ecological Fallacy Heuristically, it is possible to have a A ≤ b B and c C ≤ d D and at the same time a + c A + C ≥ b + d B + D q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3−2024 @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 6
  • 7. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Simpson’s Paradox & Ecological Fallacy Heuristically, it is possible to have a A ≤ b B and c C ≤ d D and at the same time a + c A + C ≥ b + d B + D q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3−2024 @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 7
  • 8. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Simpson’s Paradox & Ecological Fallacy Heuristically, it is possible to have a A ≤ b B and c C ≤ d D and at the same time a + c A + C ≥ b + d B + D q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3−2024 @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 8
  • 9. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Simpson’s Paradox & Ecological Fallacy Very important concept in political science see Gelman (1986, Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do) @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 9
  • 10. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Conditional Independence or could a machine create a DAG ? Conditional Independence X ⊥⊥ Y |Z if and only if • f(x, y|z) = f(x|z) · f(y|z) • f(x, y, z) · f(z) = f(x, z) · f(y, z) • f(y|x, z) = f(y|z) i.e. once we know Z, learning the value of x does not provide additional information about X Partial Correlation ρxy|z = ρxy − ρxz · ρyz (1 − ρ2 xz) · (1 − ρ2 yz) @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 10
  • 11. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Conditional Independence or could a machine create a DAG ? as X ⊥⊥ Y =⇒ ρxy = 0, X ⊥⊥ Y |Z =⇒ ρxy|z = 0 and if (X, Y, Z) is Gaussian, the converse is true as ρxy = 0 =⇒ X ⊥⊥ Y, ρxy|z = 0 =⇒ X ⊥⊥ Y |Z @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 11
  • 12. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Conditional Independence or could a machine create a DAG ? Consider variables X1, X2, X3 and Y We have • X1 ⊥⊥ X2 • X1 ⊥⊥ X3 • X2 ⊥⊥ Y |X3 Using conditional independence tests, remove edges, identify colliders and chains (might not be a unique solution...) @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 12
  • 13. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Conditional Independence or could a machine create a DAG ? Assuming a Gaussian setting, Spirtes et al. (2000, Causation, Prediction, and Search) suggested to test ρxy|z = 0 using zn = 1 2 n − dim[z] − 3 log |1 + ρxy|z| |1 − ρxy|z| One can also consider a non-parametric test, based on the distance d(x, y, z) = f(x, y, z) · f(z) − f(x, z) · f(y, z) (main issue here: curse of dimensionality) @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 13
  • 14. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 From DAG to Structural Econometric Equations There is a one-to-one mapping between a system of structural equations and a graphical model • X2 = β23X3 + β21X1 + η2 • X3 = β31X1 + η3 • Y = β3X3 + ε @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 14
  • 15. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Observation and Experiment Can we use observational data ? Consider the following dataset (from Imai (2222) - resume.csv) 1 firstname 2 sex 3 race 4 callback first name of the fictitious job applicant sex of applicant, sex ∈ {female,male} race of applicant, race ∈ {black,white} whether a call back was made, call ∈ {0, 1} See 1 firstname sex race callback 2 1 Allison female white 0 3 2 Kristen female white 0 4 3 Lakisha female black 0 5 4 Latonya female black 0 6 5 Carrie female white 0 7 6 Jay male white 0 @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 15
  • 16. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Observation and Experiment It is experimental data, collected from an experimental research design, in which a treatment variable is manipulated in order to examine its causal effects on an outcome variable. The treatment refers to the race of a fictitious applicant, implied by the name given on the r´esum´e. The outcome variable is whether the applicant receives a callback. We are interested in examining whether or not the r´esum´es with different names yield varying callback rates. no call call total black 2278 157 2435 white 2200 235 2435 total 4478 392 4870 @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 16
  • 17. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Observation and Experiment Conditional probabilities no call call total black 50.87% 40.05% 50.00% white 49.13% 59.95% 50.00% total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% no call call total black 93.55% 6.45% 100.00% white 90.35% 9.65% 100.00% total 91.95% 8.05% 100.00% 3.2% points difference... @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 17
  • 18. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Observation and ExperimentAisha Rasheed Keisha Tremayne Kareem Darnell Tyrone Hakim Tamika Lakisha Tanisha Todd Jamal Neil Brett Geoffrey Brendan Greg Emily Anne Jill Latoya Kenya Matthew Latonya Leroy Allison Ebony Jermaine Laurie Sarah Meredith Carrie Kristen Jay Brad 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 Aisha Rasheed Keisha Tremayne Kareem Darnell Tyrone Hakim Tamika Lakisha Tanisha Todd Jamal Neil Brett Geoffrey Brendan Greg Emily Anne Jill Latoya Kenya Matthew Latonya Leroy Allison Ebony Jermaine Laurie Sarah Meredith Carrie Kristen Jay Brad 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 18
  • 19. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Looking for a Conterfactual 1 firstname sex race callback 2 1 Allison female white 0 Would the same employer would have called back if the applicant’s name were instead a stereotypically African-American. Unfortunately, we would never observe this counterfactual outcome, because the researchers who conducted this experiment did not send out the same r´esum´e to the same employer using Lakisha as the first name. Let t denote the treatment (the first name0) which sound African-American (t = 1) or not (t = 0). Let y(t) denote the response (call back) as a function of the treatment t. We do observe various covariate x = (x1, x2, · · · , xk) such as the age, the education, etc. @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 19
  • 20. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Looking for a Conterfactual The dataset is here black-sounding callback age education i name t y(t = 1) y(t = 0) x1 x2 1 1 1 ? 20 college 2 0 ? 0 55 high school 3 0 ? 1 40 graduate school We would like to quantify ceteris paribus y(1) − y(0) (called causal effect) Fundamental problem of causal inference : we cannot observe the counterfactual outcomes @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 20
  • 21. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Looking for a Conterfactual In observational studies, researchers do not conduct an intervention. But they still want to quantify the impact of a policy. For instance the impact of an increase of minimum wage on unemployment (see Card & Krueger (1994), minwage.csv) ) In 1992, New Jersey (NJ) raised the minimum wage from 4.25to5.05 (per hour). 1 chain 2 location 3 wage_before 4 wage_after 5 full_before 6 full_after 7 part_before 8 part_after name of fast-food restaurant chain location of restaurants (centralNJ, northNJ, PA, shoreNJ, southNJ) wage before minimum-wage increase wage after minimum-wage increase number of full-time employees (before and after) number of part-time employees (before and after) @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 21
  • 22. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Looking for a Conterfactual One can look at a counterfactual, with a neighboring state - Pennsylvania (PA) - that will be our control group This would be a cross-section comparison design NJ PA below below mean $5.5 mean $5.5 before $4.61 91.06% $4.65 94.03% after $5.08 0.34% $4.61 95.52% @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 22
  • 23. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Looking for a Conterfactual NJ PA partial full proportion partial full proportion before 5423 2319 29.9% 1291 714 35.6% after 5351 2446 31.4% 1339 547 29.0% Difference-in-differences estimate, DID = yafter t=1 − ybefore t=1 difference in the treatment group − yafter t=0 − ybefore t=0 difference in the control group @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 23
  • 24. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Observation and Experiment q q q q Averageproportionofsalariesbelow$5.5(%) q q q q q q 020406080100 averagecausaleffect NJ PA BEFORE AFTER q q q q Averageproportionoffull...timeemployees(%) q q q q q q 20253035 averagecausaleffect NJ PA BEFORE AFTER (the counterfactual outcome for the treatment group has a time trend parallel to that of the control group) @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 24
  • 25. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Randomized Experiments n individuals, that are either treated (ti = 1) or not (ti = 0). We observe outcome yi for covariates xi. We want to study potential outcomes yi(1) and yi(0) turnout yi(1) yi(0) ti x1,i x2,i 1 y1 ? 1 x1,1 x2,1 2 ? y2 0 x1,2 x2,2 ... ... ... ... ... ... n yn ? 1 x1,n x2,n The causal effect is yi(1) − yi(0) Assume no simultaneity, no interference between individuals and same treatment @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 25
  • 26. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Randomized Experiments ATE - Average Treatment Effect Average Treatment Effect E Y (1) − Y (0) Sample Average Treatment Effect 1 n n i=1 yi(1) − yi(0) Assume randomization of the treatment assignment, n1 treated, n0 non treated Assumption : (Y (1), Y (0)) ⊥⊥ T Crude estimator (difference in means), τ = 1 n1 i:ti=1 yi − 1 n0 i:ti=0 yi, or τ = n i=1 tiyi n1 − (1 − ti)yi n0 Then E τ = E Y (1) − Y (0) @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 26
  • 27. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Randomized Experiments Intuition with a simple regression, yi(ti) = α + βti + εi, where E ε = 0. Causal effect is measured by yi(1) − yi(0) = β More generally, assume that ε is ε(t) - with E ε(T) = 0, then yi(1) − yi(0) = β + εi(1) − εi(0). Thus β = E[Yi(1) − Yi(0)] (and β = E[Yi(1)) and α = E[Yi(0)] One can consider a more general model, with yi(ti) = α + βti + ε(ti) where E[ε(t)] = 0. Then β = E[Yi(1) − Yi(0)] and α = E[Yi(0)] (as previously) @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 27
  • 28. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Randomized Experiments In this model - introduced in Neyman (1923, Sur les applications de la th´eorie des probabilit´es aux exp´eriences agricoles) - (called Rubin-Neyman) let σ2 t = Var[ε(t)] Since τ = 1 n1 i:ti=1 yi − 1 n0 i:ti=0 yi = 1 n1 n i=1 ti · yi − 1 n0 n i=1 (1 − ti) · yi The variance estimate of τ is usually biased E σ2 (ti − t)2 − σ2 0 n0 + σ2 1 n1 = (n1 − n0)(n − 1) n1n0(n − 2) σ2 1 − σ2 0 so bias is null when either n1 = n0 or σ2 1 = σ2 0. But generally biased (even asymptotically). @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 28
  • 29. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 (Cluster) Randomized Experiments One can also consider some cluster randomized experiments : treatment is at cluster level, see Bland (2004, Cluster randomised trials in the medical literature) or Boruch et al. (2004, Estimating the effects of interventions that are deployed in many places: place-randomized trials) Consider clusters j = 1, · · · , m, outcome is yi,j, with treatment tj ∈ {0, 1}. Assume random assignment, i.e. (Yi,j(1), Yi,j(0)) ⊥⊥ Tj. And for convenience, assume that nj’s are equal... τ = 1 m1 j:tj =1 yj − 1 m0 j:tj =0 yj where yj = 1 nj nj i=1 yi,j @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 29
  • 30. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 (Cluster) Randomized Experiments As before, E τ = E Y (1) − Y (0) Exact variance is Var[τ] = Var[Y (1)] m1 + Var[Y (0)] m0 , where Var[Y (t)] = σ2 t n [1 + (n − 1)ρt] ≤ σ2 t (due to (possible) intracluster correlation ρt) @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 30
  • 31. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Observational Studies & Propensity Score In the regression discontinuity design, we want to find an (arbitrary) cutoff point c that determines the treatment assignment, i.e. ti = 1xi≥c. We want to estimate E[Yi(1) − Yi(0)|Xi = c] Identification of the Average Treatment Effect : Assumption 1: Overlap, ∀x, P[T = 1|X = x] ∈ (0, 1) Assumption 2: Ignorability (Y (1), Y (0)) ⊥⊥ T|X = x, ∀x Set µ(t, x) = E[Yi(t)|T = t, X = x] Crude estimator (difference in means), τ = 1 n n i=1 µ(1, x) − µ(0, x) @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 31
  • 32. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Observational Studies & Regression Discontinuity See Imbens & Lemieux (2008, Regression Discontinuity Designs). @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 32
  • 33. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Observational Studies & Regression Discontinuity Consider the dataset from Lee (2008, Randomized ex- periments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections) - “How would the Democratic party have performed in period 2, had they not held the seat (i.e. had the Democrats lost the election in period 1)” 1 > library(RDDtools) 2 > data(Lee2008) We want to test if there is a discontinuity (in 0, x was rescaled here) • with parametric tools • with nonparametric tools q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q qqq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q qq q q q q q q qq qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q qq q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qqq q q q q qq q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq qqqq qq q qqq q q q qq qqq q qqq qqq q q qqqqqqq qqq qqq q q qqq qq qqq q q qqq q q qqqqqqqqq q qqq q q qq qq qqqqq q qqq q q qqqqqq qqq q qqq q q qqqq qq q qq q qqq q q q qqq q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q qq q qqq q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqq q q q q q q q q q q q qqqq q q q q q q q q q q q qqqqq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqqq q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q qqqqqq q qq q q q q q q qqqq q q q q q qq q q q q qqqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqqq q q q q q qq q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqq q q q q q q q q q q q qqqqq q q q q q q q q q q qqqq q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqq qq q q q q q qqqqqqq q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqqq q q q qq q q q q qqqqq qq q qq q q q q qq q q q qq q q q q q qq qqqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qqq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqqq q q qq q q qq qq qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q qqqq q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q qqqqq q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqqq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qqqq qq qq q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q qq q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqq qq q q q q q q q q qqqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q q q qqqqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q qqq q q qqq q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q qq q q q q q q qqqqq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qqq qqq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q qq q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q qqq q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.00.20.40.60.81.0 x y −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.00.20.40.60.81.0 x y @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 33
  • 34. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Observational Studies & Regression Discontinuity Use some 4th order polynomial, on each part 1 > idx1 = (Lee2008$x >0) 2 > reg1 = lm(y˜poly(x ,4) ,data=Lee2008[idx1 ,]) 3 > idx2 = (Lee2008$x <0) 4 > reg2 = lm(y˜poly(x ,4) ,data=Lee2008[idx2 ,]) 5 > s1=predict(reg1 ,newdata=data.frame(x=0)) 6 > s2=predict(reg2 ,newdata=data.frame(x=0)) 7 > abs(s1 -s2) 8 1 9 0.07659014 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q qqq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q 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q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.00.20.40.60.81.0 x y @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 34
  • 35. Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Observational Studies & Regression Discontinuity 1 > reg_para <- RDDreg_lm(RDDdata(y = Lee2008$y, x = Lee2008$x, cutpoint = 0), order = 4) 2 > reg_para 3 ### RDD regression: parametric ### 4 Polynomial order: 4 5 Slopes: separate 6 Number of obs: 6558 (left: 2740 , right: 3818) 7 8 Coefficient : 9 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) 10 D 0.076590 0.013239 5.7851 7.582e -09 *** q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q qqq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q 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q q qqqq qq q q q q q qqqqqqq q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqqq q q q qq q q q q qqqqq qq q qq q q q q qq q q q qq q q q q q qq qqqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qqq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqqq q q qq q q qq qq qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q qqqq q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q qqqqq q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqqq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qqqq qq qq q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q 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q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qqq qqq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q qq q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q qqq q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.00.20.40.60.81.0 x y @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 35
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Arthur Charpentier, SIDE Summer School, July 2019 Observational Studies & Regression Discon- tinuity or use a simple local regression, see Imbens & Kalyanaraman (2012). 1 > reg1 = ksmooth(Lee2008$x[idx1], Lee2008$y[idx1], kernel = "normal", bandwidth = 0.1) 2 > reg2 = ksmooth(Lee2008$x[idx2], Lee2008$y[idx2], kernel = "normal", bandwidth = 0.1) 3 > s1 = reg1$y[1] 4 > s2 = reg2$y[length(reg2$y)] 5 > abs(s1 -s2) 6 [1] 0.09883813 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q qqq q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q 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q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qqq q q q q q −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.00.20.40.60.81.0 x y @freakonometrics freakonometrics freakonometrics.hypotheses.org 36