1. The Natural Sciences
Introduction
17th century: Galileo Gaillei, Isaac Newton, Robert Boyle
fundamental laws of physics, 92 elements periodic table, DNA
the dominant cognitive paradigm = model of knowledge
science is the only road to knowledge
o if you cannot prove something scientifically then you don’t really know it at all
limitation: certainty [ history and belief change over time]
science is “out of control”, scientist are “playing gold”
o nuclear war or harmful effect of cloning
Scientific method
method distinguishes science from non-science
Inductivism: traditional picture of scientific method
o Observation
o hypothesis
o Experiment
o Law
o Theory
observing and classifying relevant data → pattern in the data → formulate a hypothesis
→ make prediction → test by experiment
Good experiment
o Controllability
 one factor at a time → can determine its effect
o Measurability
 relevant variables → add precision
o Repeatability
 can be repeat by other people → confirm your result
o result confirm hypothesis → scientific law
Problem with Observation
Relevance
o began with idea of what relevant → prevent from flood of observation
o selective nature of perception → overlooked a factor that later turns out to be
relevant
Expectation
o Our expectation can influence what we see
 ex: astronomer - undiscovered Vulcan → other astronomer claim to see
them → truth: Vulcan does not exist
 Theory of relativist
Expert Seeing
o Scientific equiment: [microscopes and telescopes]
 make obsevation further complicats things
The observer effect
o act of observation can sometimes affect what we observe

2. Testing Hypotheses
Confirmation bias
o people tends to look for evidence that confirms their beliefs and overlook
evidence that goes against them
o need to look for evidcne that might falsity it
o good scientist wil be aware of the danger of cnofirmation bias and seek to combat
it
o Charles Darwin (1809 -82)“I followed a golden rules, namely that whenever a
new observation or thouht come across me, which was opposed to my general
results, I make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by
experienece that much facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from the
memory than favourable ones”
o Dismiss results they don’t expect as “experimental error”
o want to show their result in their best possible light →
o strong expectation about the way an experiment should turn out
Science and Society
Thomas Kuhn (1922 - 96) - paradigm
o make sense of some aspect of reality
Normal science
o the vast majority of scientist are busy solving problems within a paradigm while
taking the paradigm itself for granted
o ex;love the problem within the framework of Newtonian mechanics isntead of
questioning newtonian machanics
o goign to get anyhting done, you cannot endlesslyh question your assumption
Scientific Revolutions
o scientists become dissatisfied with the prevailing paradigm, and put forward a
completely new way of looking at things
o idea triumph → new paradigm replace the old one ---<> inaugurate another
period of normal science
o ex: shift from geocentric to heliocentric model of universe
How rational is science?
progress of science is not rational → theory can never be conclusivelt verified or falsified
factor: personal amibition and social pressure
Charles Nicolle (1866 - 1936)
o priority disputes: without ambition and without vanity no one would enter a
profession so contrary to our natural appetites
o priority disputes: dispute about who was the firs to discover a particular law or
come up with a particulr theory
o concerned with their social status and public recognition
o social context: military’s desire for power and big business’s desire for profit
Assessment of Kuhn’s position

3. normal science: do not question the paradigm in which theyare operating and focus
instead of solving problems
sciecne goes through a series of revolutionary jumps
no purely rational ways of deciding between rival paradigms
The Human Sciences
Introduction
o studying human behaviour in systematic way
o psychology, economics, anthropology and sociology
o theory of evolution: descended from the apes [99% genes]
o same basic ingerdient - 63% hydrogen, 25.5 oxygen, 9.5 carbon etc.
o human = self-conscious animals [mirror test]
o language, reason, free-will and creativity
Observation
o problem: cannot directly observe their mind
o method: questionnaires, opinion polls and interviews
o we overestimate our strengths and underestimate our weaknesses
Loaded questions
o hidden assumption → encourage peopel to answer one way rather than another
The observer effect
o become nervous ro embarrassed by hsi attention → change their behaviour
o habituation: be there for a long time, get used to the presense and ignore them
o hidden cameras: don’t know you are beign observed
o awy in which a prediction can affect what is predicted
Laws
Human free will - conflict → law like regularities in human behaviour
behaviour of inconsistent, wilful and unpredictable human being
Newton’s : “I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of
crowds
generalisation about human being
The law of large numbers
prediction : number of births, marriages and deahts in the coutnry
large popular random variation tend to cancle out
predict large group rather than individual behaviour
Trends and laws
. prediciton fo human scientist turn out to be wrong
human scientist simply uncovered treands rather than genuine laws
trend shows irection in which a variable is moving, no explanation for movement
Philips curve in economic: two things are correlated does not follow that the frist is the
cause of the second
o fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc
The complexity of real world sitations

4. untangle a complicated web of causal relationship to determind which one is decisive
Summary
law of large number
o based on treands reather than law → consufse a correlation with causal
conenction
o complexity of real world situation, difficult to unearth simple laws of “if, then”
Bias & prediction
begin with prejudcies about the nature of individuals and society
difficult to be open minded about controversial topic
look for evidcne that confrim pre-existing prejudce
emotional attrachment--> over identify
Predictions
deal with extremely complex sitaution → not possible to run controlled experiments
prediciton made by social scientist are valuable → give us an incentive to change
purpose of human scinece = describe and understand