The document discusses several key aspects of the natural and human sciences: 1) The scientific method involves making observations, formulating hypotheses, conducting experiments to test hypotheses, and establishing laws or theories based on experimental results. 2) Observation in science can be influenced by relevance, expectations, equipment, and the observer effect. Testing hypotheses is complicated by confirmation bias. 3) Thomas Kuhn's paradigm theory holds that normal science operates within accepted paradigms, while scientific revolutions introduce new paradigms, though paradigms cannot be rationally decided between. 4) The human sciences face additional challenges in observation, establishing laws from human behavior, and making predictions in complex real-world situations.

1. The Natural Sciences
Introduction
17th century: Galileo Gaillei, Isaac Newton, Robert Boyle
fundamental laws of physics, 92 elements periodic table, DNA
the dominant cognitive paradigm = model of knowledge
science is the only road to knowledge
o if you cannot prove something scientifically then you don’t really know it at all
limitation: certainty [ history and belief change over time]
science is “out of control”, scientist are “playing gold”
o nuclear war or harmful effect of cloning
Scientific method
method distinguishes science from non-science
Inductivism: traditional picture of scientific method
o Observation
o hypothesis
o Experiment
o Law
o Theory
observing and classifying relevant data → pattern in the data → formulate a hypothesis
→ make prediction → test by experiment
Good experiment
o Controllability
 one factor at a time → can determine its effect
o Measurability
 relevant variables → add precision
o Repeatability
 can be repeat by other people → confirm your result
o result confirm hypothesis → scientific law
Problem with Observation
Relevance
o began with idea of what relevant → prevent from flood of observation
o selective nature of perception → overlooked a factor that later turns out to be
relevant
Expectation
o Our expectation can influence what we see
 ex: astronomer - undiscovered Vulcan → other astronomer claim to see
them → truth: Vulcan does not exist
 Theory of relativist
Expert Seeing
o Scientific equiment: [microscopes and telescopes]
 make obsevation further complicats things
The observer effect
o act of observation can sometimes affect what we observe

2. Testing Hypotheses
Confirmation bias
o people tends to look for evidence that confirms their beliefs and overlook
evidence that goes against them
o need to look for evidcne that might falsity it
o good scientist wil be aware of the danger of cnofirmation bias and seek to combat
it
o Charles Darwin (1809 -82)“I followed a golden rules, namely that whenever a
new observation or thouht come across me, which was opposed to my general
results, I make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by
experienece that much facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from the
memory than favourable ones”
o Dismiss results they don’t expect as “experimental error”
o want to show their result in their best possible light →
o strong expectation about the way an experiment should turn out
Science and Society
Thomas Kuhn (1922 - 96) - paradigm
o make sense of some aspect of reality
Normal science
o the vast majority of scientist are busy solving problems within a paradigm while
taking the paradigm itself for granted
o ex;love the problem within the framework of Newtonian mechanics isntead of
questioning newtonian machanics
o goign to get anyhting done, you cannot endlesslyh question your assumption
Scientific Revolutions
o scientists become dissatisfied with the prevailing paradigm, and put forward a
completely new way of looking at things
o idea triumph → new paradigm replace the old one ---<> inaugurate another
period of normal science
o ex: shift from geocentric to heliocentric model of universe
How rational is science?
progress of science is not rational → theory can never be conclusivelt verified or falsified
factor: personal amibition and social pressure
Charles Nicolle (1866 - 1936)
o priority disputes: without ambition and without vanity no one would enter a
profession so contrary to our natural appetites
o priority disputes: dispute about who was the firs to discover a particular law or
come up with a particulr theory
o concerned with their social status and public recognition
o social context: military’s desire for power and big business’s desire for profit
Assessment of Kuhn’s position

3. normal science: do not question the paradigm in which theyare operating and focus
instead of solving problems
sciecne goes through a series of revolutionary jumps
no purely rational ways of deciding between rival paradigms
The Human Sciences
Introduction
o studying human behaviour in systematic way
o psychology, economics, anthropology and sociology
o theory of evolution: descended from the apes [99% genes]
o same basic ingerdient - 63% hydrogen, 25.5 oxygen, 9.5 carbon etc.
o human = self-conscious animals [mirror test]
o language, reason, free-will and creativity
Observation
o problem: cannot directly observe their mind
o method: questionnaires, opinion polls and interviews
o we overestimate our strengths and underestimate our weaknesses
Loaded questions
o hidden assumption → encourage peopel to answer one way rather than another
The observer effect
o become nervous ro embarrassed by hsi attention → change their behaviour
o habituation: be there for a long time, get used to the presense and ignore them
o hidden cameras: don’t know you are beign observed
o awy in which a prediction can affect what is predicted
Laws
Human free will - conflict → law like regularities in human behaviour
behaviour of inconsistent, wilful and unpredictable human being
Newton’s : “I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of
crowds
generalisation about human being
The law of large numbers
prediction : number of births, marriages and deahts in the coutnry
large popular random variation tend to cancle out
predict large group rather than individual behaviour
Trends and laws
. prediciton fo human scientist turn out to be wrong
human scientist simply uncovered treands rather than genuine laws
trend shows irection in which a variable is moving, no explanation for movement
Philips curve in economic: two things are correlated does not follow that the frist is the
cause of the second
o fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc
The complexity of real world sitations

4. untangle a complicated web of causal relationship to determind which one is decisive
Summary
law of large number
o based on treands reather than law → consufse a correlation with causal
conenction
o complexity of real world situation, difficult to unearth simple laws of “if, then”
Bias & prediction
begin with prejudcies about the nature of individuals and society
difficult to be open minded about controversial topic
look for evidcne that confrim pre-existing prejudce
emotional attrachment--> over identify
Predictions
deal with extremely complex sitaution → not possible to run controlled experiments
prediciton made by social scientist are valuable → give us an incentive to change
purpose of human scinece = describe and understand