Every single project, in fact, will face unexpected conditions during execution phase. These conditions have different impacts, improving or reducing project performance. If those conditions, especially the “bad” ones – risks, are not well identified up front, they may potentially destroy the overall project execution. Project Risk Management is a world class process in identifying, assessing and developing plans to reduce or eliminate the risk impacts. In term of cost and schedule, this process prevents significant cost overrun and schedule slip by applying adequate contingency. This technique will help project team to specify, identify, examine and encompass overall risks and uncertainties aspects which potentially impact to project outcomes and support management decision in determining adequate contingency requirement. This presentation shows how Schedule Risk Analysis support project team in preparing commitment and support decision making process.

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Gd Suryawan, CCE
Project Consultant

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 Provide appropriate project outcome, certain range for strategic
planning and investment decision
 Improve project team alignment and understanding on project
uncertainties and risks that may potentially impact the project
outcome
 Improve project schedule predictability
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Daily trip from Home to Office  5.7 km (3.5 miles)
 Start: 7AM
 Route: Wika – Pemda – BB – Guntur – Nusantara – Sentosa – Pasir
Ridge
 Time Record: D to P
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Date Duration Weather
March 29 21 mins Normal
March 30 23 mins Normal
March 31 35 mins Raining
April 1 24 mins Normal

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 How many projects met commitment?
 How many projects got delayed?

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 Better planning by identifying uncertainties and potential risks that
may impact the project
 Risks and uncertainties are translated as appropriate contingency
 Quantitative risk analysis is one of proven risk management
methodologies to identify, assess and determine appropriate
contingency

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 Every single project, in fact, will face unexpected conditions during
execution phase  improving or reducing project performance
 An estimate is a prediction of the expected final duration of a
proposed project  by nature, it is associated with uncertainty 
probability of delay or early completion
 Accurate estimates to support Management investment decision
and planning
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Provide insights to maximize the value of the project opportunity by
capturing risks (interdependencies), magnitude of uncertainties and
understand both impacts in delivering the project as committed.
 Identify and quantify significant risks to the project schedule
 Share and understand major risks driving the project
 Identify and set priorities for risk management and value realization
 Communicate risks and uncertainties to stakeholders
 Determine appropriate levels of contingency
 Bottom line: improve schedule predictability
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1 AACE International. Total Cost Management Framework

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 Range Estimating – RP41R-08
Determining uncertainties range – best and worst cases
 Identify and examine project uncertainties on each project schedule
task durations
 Expected Value – RP 44R-08
Expected Value = Probability of Risk Occurring x Impact if It Occurs
 Identify and examine project specific risks (risk events)
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 Deterministic or baseline schedule
 Documented and understood assumption and baseline schedule
 Completed schedule assurance – review and validate schedule
 Preliminary risk register (if any)
 Integrated project team and resources with relevant and related
project experience
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 Develop Schedule Model  select high level, critical and near
critical tasks
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 Translate the Schedule Model into a spreadsheet
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 Team discusses scenario/comments on selected schedule task
and determine uncertainties range of each task schedule (Min/P10
& Max/P90)
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 Determine specific risks (events) and build-in to related tasks
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Expected Value = Probability of Risk Occurring x Impact if It Occurs
Likelihood
Impact

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 Run the simulation  S-Curve and Tornado
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 Probabilistic project schedule – finish date or selected milestones.
 Contingency level
Each company has own expectation on level of acceptable risk
tolerance (Confidence Level). Contingency is determined by the
difference between the acceptable confidence level and project
schedule baseline
 Sensitivity/Tornado Chart
Represent prioritized risk drivers  project team need to develop
appropriate moving forward plan to reduce amount of risks impact
or likelihood of respected risk drivers
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 Schedule slip potentially impact to cost increase
 It is recommended to perform Cost Risk Analysis with built-in
schedule duration uncertainties into cost model
 Over time, some risks will be realized, other will be retired and
some will be discovered: Risk Management never ends2. Realizing
this condition, the quantitative risk analysis should be conducted
periodically to ensure the validity of all risks information and
effectiveness of mitigation plan.
 Effective Risk Management plan will improve the likelihood of the
project achieving its goals
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2 United States Government Accountability Office, GAO-09-3SP

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“We do what we said we’ll do”
Plan your Work, Work your Plan

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gsuryawan@gmail.com