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CH11:
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
ABDULLAH ALKHADRAWY, PMP
Course Instructor:
 BSc. Civil Engineering 2006 (V.Good HD).
 Graduation Project (Project Management)
2006.(Excellent graded)
 Certified from PMI® as PMP® April2011
 Certified from Primavera Inc. ® : Advanced user for
Primavera P6 (2008).
 Certified from Primavera Inc. ® : Advanced user for
primavera Contract Manager 12 (2009).
 Attended courses (PMP, CCE, FIDIC, Project
Management, Arbitration for Engineering Contracts)
[2007-2013]
 Working as: Sr. Planning Engineer
Abdullah Ahmed Al-Khadrawy
11.1 Plan Risk
Management
11.2 Identify
Risks
11.3 Perform
Qualitative Risk
Analysis
11.4 Perform
Quantitative
Risk Analysis
11.5 Plan Risk
Responses
conducting risk management planning, identification, analysis, response planning,
and controlling risk on a project. The objectives of project risk management are to
increase the likelihood and impact of positive events, and decrease the likelihood and
impact of negative events in the project
11.
Project Risk
Management
11.6 Control Risks
Riskappetite
the degree of uncertainty an entity is willing to take on, in anticipation of a reward
Risktolerance
the degree, amount, or volume of risk that an organization or individual will withstand
Riskthreshold
measures along the level of uncertainty or the level of impact at which a stakeholder
may have a specific interest. Below that risk threshold, the organization will accept the
risk. Above that risk threshold, the organization will not tolerate the risk.
RISK AT TITUDE
RISK Through the Project Lifecycle
11.1 Plan Risk Management Planning
.1 Project management plan
.2 Project charter
.3 Stakeholder register
.4 Enterprise environmental factors
.5 Organizational process assets
.1 Analytical techniques
.2 Expert judgment
.3 Meetings
.1 Risk management plan
defining how to conduct risk management activities for a project
11.1 Plan Risk Management
1. Project management plan
2. Project charter
3. Stakeholder register
4. Enterprise environmental factors
5. Organizational process assets
11.1 Plan Risk Management
4. Enterprise environmental factors
• risk attitudes, thresholds, and tolerances that describe
the degree of risk that an organization will withstand.
5. Organizational process assets
• Risk categories, Common definitions of concepts and
terms, Risk statement formats, Standard templates, Roles
and responsibilities, Authority levels for decision
making, and Lessons learned.
11.1 Plan Risk Management
1. Analytical techniques
2. Expert judgment
3. Meetings
11.1 Plan Risk Management
1. Analytical techniques
• used to understand and define the overall risk management context of the project.
• Risk management context is a combination of stakeholder risk attitudes and the strategic risk exposure of a given project based on the
overall project context.
• For example, a stakeholder risk profile analysis may be performed to grade and qualify the project stakeholder risk appetite and
tolerance. Other techniques, such as the use of strategic risk scoring sheets, are used to provide a high-level assessment
• Depending on these assessments, the project team can allocate appropriate resources and focus on the risk management activities
11.1 Plan Risk Management
2. Expert judgment
• Senior management,
• Project stakeholders,
• Project managers who have worked on projects in the same area (directly or
through lessons learned),
• Subject matter experts (SMEs) in business or project area,
• Industry groups and consultants, and
• Professional and technical associations.
11.1 Plan Risk Management
3. Meetings
• Project teams hold planning meetings to develop the risk management
plan.
• Attendees: the project manager, selected project team members and
stakeholders, anyone in the organization with responsibility to manage
the risk planning and execution activities, and others, as needed.
11.1 Plan Risk Management
1. Risk Management Plan
• Methodology.
• Roles and responsibilities.
• Budgeting.
• Timing.
• Risk categories.
• Definitions of risk probability and impact.
• Probability and impact matrix.
• Revised stakeholders’ tolerances.
• Reporting formats.
• Tracking.
11.1 Plan Risk Management
1. Risk Management Plan
• Methodology: the approaches, tools, and data sources that will be used to perform
risk management on the project
• Roles and responsibilities: the lead, support, and risk management team members for
each type of activity in the risk management plan, and clarifies their responsibilities.
11.1 Plan Risk Management
1. Risk Management Plan
• Budgeting: Estimates * funds needed, based on assigned resources, for inclusion in the cost
baseline and establishes * protocols for application of contingency and management reserves
• Timing: the lead, support, and risk management team members for
each type of activity in the risk management plan, and clarifies their responsibilities.
11.1 Plan Risk Management
1. Risk Management Plan
• Risk categories : means for grouping potential causes of risk
• May be a simple list or RBS (Risk Breakdown Structure)
Example of a Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS)
11.1 Plan Risk Management
1. Risk Management Plan
• Definitions of risk probability and impact. :
- The quality and credibility of the risk analysis requires that different levels of risk probability and impact be
defined that are specific to the project context.
- May be applied for positive and/or negative risks
- General definitions of probability levels and impact levels are tailored to the individual project
11.1 Plan Risk Management
1. Risk Management Plan
• Probability and impact matrix. :
11.1 Plan Risk Management
1. Risk Management Plan
• Reporting formats:
(1) how the outcomes of the risk management process will be documented, analysed, and
distributed
(2) describes the content and format of the risk register .
• Tracking:
• how risk activities will be (1) recorded. (2) audited.
11.2 Identify Risks Planning
.1 Risk management plan
.2 Cost management plan
.3 Schedule management plan
.4 Quality management plan
.5 Human resource management plan
.6 Scope baseline
.7 Activity cost estimates
.8 Activity duration estimates
.9 Stakeholder register
.10 Project documents
.11 Procurement documents
.12 Enterprise environmental factors
.13 Organizational process assets
.1 Documentation reviews
.2 Information gathering techniques
.3 Checklist analysis
.4 Assumptions analysis
.5 Diagramming techniques
.6 SWOT analysis
.7 Expert judgment
.1 Risk register
determining which risks may affect the project and
documenting their characteristics
11.2 Identify Risks
• Iterative process, i.e. new risks may evolve or become known as the project
progresses through its life cycle.
• The format of the risk statements should be consistent to ensure that each risk is
understood clearly and unambiguously.
• Participants from the project members (project manager, project team members, risk
management team (if assigned), customers)
• Participants from outside the project:- other project managers, stakeholders, and risk
management experts.
11.2 Identify Risks
1. Risk management plan
2. Cost management plan
3. Schedule management plan
4. Quality management plan
5. Human resource management
plan
6. Scope baseline
7. Activity cost estimates
8. Activity duration estimates
9. Stakeholder register
10.Project documents
11.Procurement documents
12.Enterprise environmental
factors
13.Organizational process assets
11.2 Identify Risks
10. Project documents
• Project charter
• Project schedule
• Schedule network diagrams
• Issue log
• Quality checklist
• Other information proven to be valuable in identifying
risks
11.2 Identify Risks
12. Enterprise environmental factors
• Published information, including commercial databases
• Academic studies
• Published checklists
• Benchmarking
• Industry studies
• Risk attitudes
11.2 Identify Risks
13. Organizational process assets
• Project files, including actual data
• Organizational and project process controls
• Risk statement formats or templates
• Lessons learned.
11.2 Identify Risks
1. Documentation reviews
2. Information gathering techniques
3. Checklist analysis
4. Assumptions analysis
5. Diagramming techniques
6. SWOT analysis
7. Expert judgment
11.2 Identify Risks
2. Information Gathering Techniques
• Brainstorming
• The goal of brainstorming is to obtain a comprehensive list of project risks.
• The project team brainstorm, with a multidisciplinary experts who are not part of the team.
• Ideas about project risk are generated under the leadership of a facilitator.
• Categories of risk in a risk breakdown structure, can be used as a framework.
• Risks are then identified and categorized by type of risk and their definitions are refined.
11.2 Identify Risks
2. Information Gathering Techniques
• Delphi technique
• The Delphi technique is a way to reach a consensus of experts.
• Project risk experts participate in this technique anonymously.
• A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas about the important
project risks.
• The responses are summarized and are then recirculated to the experts for
further comment.
• Consensus may be reached in a few rounds of this process.
• The Delphi technique helps reduce bias in the data and keeps any one
person from having undue influence on the outcome.
Facilitator
Expert 2Expert 1
11.2 Identify Risks
2. Information Gathering Techniques
• Root cause analysis
• identify a problem, discover the underlying causes that lead to it, and develop
preventive action..
11.2 Identify Risks
5. Diagramming Techniques
• Cause and effect diagrams (Ishikawa – Fishbone )
11.2 Identify Risks
5. Diagramming Techniques
• System or process flow charts
• various elements of a system interrelate and the mechanism of causation.
11.2 Identify Risks
5. Diagramming Techniques
• Influence diagrams
• Causal influences,
• Time ordering of events,
• Other relationships among variables and outcomes
11.2 Identify Risks
6. (SWOT) analysis
11.2 Identify Risks
7. Expert Judgment
11.2 Identify Risks
1. Risk Register (First Entry)
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Planning
.1 Risk management plan
.2 Scope baseline
.3 Risk register
.4 Enterprise environmental factors
.5 Organizational process assets
.1 Risk probability and impact
assessment
.2 Probability and impact matrix
.3 Risk data quality assessment
.4 Risk categorization
.5 Risk urgency assessment
.6 Expert judgment
.1 Project documents updates
prioritizing risks for further analysis or action by assessing and
combining their probability of occurrence and impact
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
1. Risk management plan
2. Scope baseline
3. Risk register
4. Enterprise environmental factors
5. Organizational process assets
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
1. Risk probability and impact assessment
2. Probability and impact matrix
3. Risk data quality assessment
4. Risk categorization
5. Risk urgency assessment
6. Expert judgment
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
1. Risk probability and impact assessment
For each specified RISK:
* Risk probability assessment = the likelihood
* Risk impact assessment = the potential effect on a project objective
 such as schedule, cost, quality, or performance, including both
negative effects for threats and positive effects for opportunities.
** Project team members and knowledgeable persons external to
the project are included.
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
2. Probability and Impact Matrix
o Risk Rating, is typically conducted using a look-up table or a probability and impact matrix.
o Descriptive terms or numeric values can be used depending on organizational preference.
o The organization should determine the rating classification (high risk, moderate risk, and low risk).
o Risk rating rules can be tailored in the Plan Risk Management process.
o Risks with low ratings will be included within the risk register as part of the watch list for future monitoring.
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
2. Probability and Impact Matrix
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
3. Risk Data Quality Assessment
The use of low-quality risk data may lead to a qualitative
risk analysis of little use to the project.
o If data quality is unacceptable, it may be necessary to
gather better data.
o Often, the collection of information about risks is
difficult, and consumes more time and resources than
originally planned.
oThe numbers of steps in the scale are usually established
when defining the risk attitude of the organization.
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
4. Risk Categorization
Some of proposed Categorization Bases
WBS RBS useful categories
(e.g., project phase) root causes
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
5. Risk Urgency Assessment
o Risks requiring near-term responses may be considered more urgent to address.
o Indicators of priority may include probability of detecting the risk, time to affect
a risk response, symptoms and warning signs, and the risk rating.
o In some qualitative analyses, the assessment of risk urgency is combined with the
risk ranking
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
1. Project Documents Updates
1. Risk register updates.
1) assessments of probability and impacts for each risk,
2) risk ranking or scores,
3) risk urgency information
4) risk categorization, and
5) a watch list for low probability risks
6) risks requiring further analysis.
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
1. Project Documents Updates
2. Assumptions log updates.
1) The assumptions log needs to be revisited to accommodate the new
information.
2) Assumptions may be incorporated into the project scope statement
or in a separate assumptions log.
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Planning
.1 Risk management plan
.2 Cost management plan
.3 Schedule management plan
.4 Risk register
.5 Enterprise environmental factors
.6 Organizational process assets
.1 Data gathering and representation
techniques
.2 Quantitative risk analysis and modelling
techniques
.3 Expert judgment
.1 Project documents updates
numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall
project objectives
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
1. Risk management plan
2. Cost management plan
3. Schedule management plan
4. Risk register
5. Enterprise environmental factors
6. Organizational process assets
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
1. Data gathering and representation techniques
2. Quantitative risk analysis and modelling techniques
3. Expert judgment
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
1. Data gathering and representation techniques
1. Interviewing
- Based on experience and historical data to quantify the probability
and impact of risks on project objectives.
- The information needed depends upon the type of probability
distributions that will be used.
- E.g. Three points estimation
11-13 Three points estimation
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
1. Data gathering and representation techniques
2. Probability distributions
- Extensively used in modeling and simulation.
- Uniform distributions can be used if all the data are at the same
degree of likelihood.
* E.g. the early concept stage of design.
The two commonly used Probability distribution
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques
1. Sensitivity analysis
- Determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project.
- It shows how the variations in project’s objectives correlate with variations in
different uncertainties.
- It can show the extent limit for each risk, when it individually occurs.
- E.G. Tornado Diagram:
* a special type of bar chart used for comparing the relative importance of the
variables.
* In this figure, each uncertainty has a horizontal bar and is ordered vertically to
show uncertainties with a decreasing spread from the base values.
Example of Tornado Diagram
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques
2. Expected monetary value (EMV) analysis
- calculates the average outcome of the proposed scenarios.
- It gives (+) values for the benefits, while the threats take (-) ones.
- It can show the extent limit for each risk, when it individually occurs.
- EMV requires a risk-neutral assumption— neither risk averse nor risk seeking.
- Decision Tree: - Most important tool, for comparing the EMV for different proposals to validate the choices.
- Can be used to compare: e.g.(Vendor selection, Make or Buy analysis, Project selection,
Decision Tree:
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques
3. Modeling and simulation
- Translates the uncertainties of the project into their potential impact on project objectives.
- Simulations are typically performed using the Monte Carlo technique.
- The project model is computed many times (iterated), with the input values (e.g., cost estimates or activity
durations) chosen at random for each iteration from the probability distributions of these variables.
- A histogram is calculated from the iterations(e.g., total cost or completion date) .
- For a cost risk analysis, a simulation uses 1) cost estimates.
- For a schedule risk analysis,1) the schedule network diagram and 2) duration estimates are used.
Monte Carlo simulation technique
Figure 11-17. Cost Risk Simulation Results
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
3. Expert Judgment
** Identify potential cost and schedule impacts, to evaluate probability, and to define inputs
such as probability distributions into the tools.
** Interpretation of the data.
** Identify the weaknesses and strengths of the tools.
** Experts may determine when a specific tool may or may not be more appropriate given the
organization’s capabilities and culture.
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
1. Project Documents Updates
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
1. Project Documents Updates
1. Assumptions log updates.
2. Probability of achieving cost and time objectives.
3. Prioritized list of quantified risks.
4. Trends in quantitative risk analysis results.
11.5 Plan Risk Responses Planning
.1 Risk management plan
.2 Risk register
.1 Strategies for negative risks or threats
.2 Strategies for positive risks or
opportunities
.3 Contingent response strategies
.4 Expert judgment
.1 Project management plan updates
.2 Project documents updates
developing options and actions to enhance opportunities and to
reduce threats to project objectives
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
-- The aim of Risk Response plan ,
1) Risk Trigger : probable events that –if they happens- raises the probability of each
risk (positive or negative).
2) Risk Owner: the person or the team, who will be responsible for risk monitoring,
and ensuring that the risk response is carried out.
3) Risk Response: which was decided for each risk, to be applied for.
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
-- The common Risk Response Strategies,
OPPORTUNITIS
(+ve risks)
THREATS
(-ve risks)
ACCEPT
TRANSFER
MITIGATE
AVOID
ACCEPT
SHARE
ENHANCE
EXPLOIT
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
-- Risk Response Strategies
- The strategy or mix of strategies most likely to be effective should be selected for each risk.
- Risk analysis tools, such as decision tree, can be used to choose the responses.
- A fallback plan (plan B): can be developed for:
1) implementation if the selected strategy turns out not to be fully effective.
2) or if an accepted risk occurs.
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
1. Risk management plan
2. Risk register
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
1. Strategies for negative risks or threats
2. Strategies for positive risks or opportunities
3. Contingent response strategies
4. Expert judgment
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
1. Strategies for negative risks or threats
- Avoid, Mitigate, Transfer, or Accept the negative risk (the threat).
- Avoidance and mitigation are good for critical risks with high impact, while
transference and acceptance are good for threats that are less critical and with low overall impact.
 Avoid.
(-) Eliminate the threat or protect the project from its impact.
(-) It involves changing the project management plan to eliminate the threat entirely.
(-) The project manager isolates the project objectives from the risk’s impact or change the objective that is in jeopardy.
(-) E.g.: extending the schedule, changing the strategy, or reducing scope.
(-) The most radical avoidance strategy is to shut down the project entirely.
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
1. Strategies for negative risks or threats
 Mitigate.
(-) Reduce the probability of occurrence or impact of a risk, to be within acceptable
threshold limits.
(-) Mitigation may require prototype development to reduce the risk
(-) E.g.: Adopting less complex processes, conducting more tests, or choosing a more
stable supplier.
(-) a mitigation might address the risk impact by targeting linkages that determine the
severity. For example, designing redundancy into a system.
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
1. Strategies for negative risks or threats
 Transfer.
(-) The project team shifts the impact of a threat to a third party.
(-) Gives another party responsibility for its management— it does not eliminate it.
(-) Transferring liability for risk is most effective in dealing with financial risk exposure.
(-) E.g. insurance, performance bonds, warranties, guarantees, etc.
(-) The use Contracts or agreements may be used to transfer liability for specified risks to
another party.
E.g. use of a cost-plus contract transfers the cost risk to the buyer (Owner),
while a fixed-price contract transfers risk to the seller (Applicator or Contractor).
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
1. Strategies for negative risks or threats
 Accept.
(-) acknowledge the risk and not take any action unless the risk occurs.
(-) This strategy is adopted where it is not possible or cost-effective to address a specific risk
in any other way.
(-) Passive acceptance requires no action except to document the strategy, the
project team deal with the risks as they occur, and to periodically review the threat.
(-) Active acceptance strategy is to establish a contingency reserve, including amounts
of time, money, or resources to handle the risks.
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
2. Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities
 Exploit: Ensure that the opportunity is realized.
(-) E.g.: (1)assigning talented resources to reduce the time , or
(2) using new technologies to reduce cost and/or duration required to realize project
objectives.
 Enhance: increase the probability and/or the positive impacts.
(-) E.g.: adding more resources to an activity to finish early.
 Share: allocating some or all of the ownership of the opportunity to a third party who is best
able to capture the opportunity .
(-) E.g.: risk-sharing partnerships, teams, special-purpose companies, or joint ventures.
 Accept: willing to take advantage of the opportunity if it arises, but not actively pursuing it.
(-) E.g.: Accepting achievement bonus, was not originally stated in the contract.
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
3. Contingent Response Strategies
(-) Some responses are designed for use only if certain events occur..
(-) . Events that trigger the contingency response, such as missing intermediate milestones or
gaining higher priority with a supplier, should be defined and tracked.
(-) Risk responses identified using this technique are often called contingency plans or
fallback plans
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
1. Project Management Plan Updates
2. Project Documents Updates
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
1. Project Management Plan Updates
1. Schedule management plan.
2. Cost management plan.
3. Quality management plan.
4. Procurement management plan.
5. Human resource management plan.
6. Scope baseline.
7. Schedule baseline.
8. Cost baseline.
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
2. Project Documents Updates
1. Risk Register Updates :
a) Risk owners and assigned responsibilities; Agreed-upon response strategies;
b) Specific actions to implement the chosen response strategy;
c) Trigger conditions, symptoms, and warning signs of a risk occurrence; Budget and schedule activities required to implement the
chosen responses; Contingency plans and triggers that call for their execution;
d) Fallback plans for use as a reaction to a risk that has occurred and the primary response proves to be inadequate;
e) Residual risks that are expected to remain after planned responses have been taken, as well as those that have been deliberately
accepted;
f) Secondary risks that arise as a direct outcome of implementing a risk response;
g) Contingency reserves that are calculated based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project and the organization’s risk
thresholds.
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
- Residual risks (Less Important)
that are expected to remain after planned responses have been taken, as well as
those that have been deliberately accepted
- Secondary risks (Generated from Risk Responses)
that arise as a direct outcome of implementing a risk response.
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
2. Project Documents Updates
2. Assumptions’ log updates
3. Technical documentation updates
4. Change requests
11.6 Control Risks Monitoring&Controlling
.1 Project management plan
.2 Risk register
.3 Work performance data
.4 Work performance reports
.1 Risk reassessment
.2 Risk audits
.3 Variance and trend analysis
.4 Technical performance measurement
.5 Reserve analysis
.6 Meetings
.1 Work performance information
.2 Change requests
.3 Project management plan updates
.4 Project documents updates
.5 Organizational process assets updates
implementing risk response plans, tracking identified risks,
monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks, and evaluating risk
process effectiveness throughout the project
11.6 Control Risks
1. Project management plan
2. Risk register
3. Work performance data
4. Work performance reports
11.6 Control Risks
1. Risk reassessment
2. Risk audits
3. Variance and trend analysis
4. Technical performance measurement
5. Reserve analysis
6. Meetings
11.6 Control Risks
1.Risk reassessment
ϕ Identification of new risks.
ϕ Reassessment of current risks.
ϕ The closing of risks that are outdated.
ϕ Should be regularly scheduled.
11.6 Control Risks
2. Risk audits
ϕ Examine and document the effectiveness of risk responses in dealing with
identified risks and their root causes, as well as the effectiveness of the risk
management process.
ϕ The project manager is responsible for ensuring that risk audits are
performed at an appropriate frequency, as defined in the project’s risk
management plan.
ϕ Risk audits may be included during routine project review meetings, or the
team may choose to hold separate risk audit meetings.
11.6 Control Risks
3. Variance and Trend Analysis
ϕ Compare the planned results to the actual results.
ϕ Trends in the project’s execution should be reviewed using performance
information.
ϕ Earned value analysis used for monitoring overall project performance.
11.6 Control Risks
4. Technical Performance Measurement
ϕ Compares technical accomplishments during project execution to the schedule of technical
achievement.
ϕ It requires the definition of objective, quantifiable measures of technical performance,
which can be used to compare actual results against targets.
ϕ Such technical performance measures may include weight, transaction times, number of
delivered defects, storage capacity, etc.
ϕ Deviation, such as demonstrating more or less functionality than planned at a milestone,
can help to forecast the degree of success in achieving the project’s scope.
11.6 Control Risks
5. Reserve Analysis
ϕ Compares the amount of the contingency reserves remaining to the amount of risk
remaining at any time in the project in order to determine if the remaining reserve is
adequate.
6. Meetings
ϕ Project risk management should be an agenda item at periodic status meetings.
ϕ The amount of time required for that item will vary, depending upon the identified risks, their
priority, and difficulty of response.
ϕ The more often risk management is practiced, the easier it becomes.
ϕ Frequent discussions about risk make it more likely that people will identify risks and
opportunities.
11.6 Control Risks
1. Work performance information
2. Change requests
3. Project management plan updates
4. Project documents updates
5. Organizational process assets updates
11.6 Control Risks
1. Work performance information
ϕ Work performance information, as a Control Risks output, provides a mechanism to
communicate and support project decision making.
11.6 Control Risks
2. Change requests
Implementing contingency plans or workarounds sometimes results in a change request.
ϕ Recommended corrective actions.
- These are activities that realign the performance of the project work with the project management plan.
- They include contingency plans and workarounds.
- The latter are responses that were not initially planned, but are required to deal with emerging risks that
were previously unidentified or accepted passively.
ϕ Recommended preventive actions
- These are activities that ensure that future performance of the project work is aligned with the project
management plan.
11.6 Control Risks
5. Organizational Process Assets Updates
The risk management processes produce information that may be used for future projects
ϕ Templates for the risk management plan, including the probability and impact matrix and risk
register.
ϕ Risk breakdown structure, and
ϕ Lessons learned from the project risk management activities.
ϕ These documents should be updated as needed and at project closure.
ϕ Final versions of the risk register and the risk management plan templates, checklists, and risk
breakdown structure are included.
BEST OF LUCK !

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PMP PMBOK 5th Ch 11 Project Risk Management

  • 2. Course Instructor:  BSc. Civil Engineering 2006 (V.Good HD).  Graduation Project (Project Management) 2006.(Excellent graded)  Certified from PMI® as PMP® April2011  Certified from Primavera Inc. ® : Advanced user for Primavera P6 (2008).  Certified from Primavera Inc. ® : Advanced user for primavera Contract Manager 12 (2009).  Attended courses (PMP, CCE, FIDIC, Project Management, Arbitration for Engineering Contracts) [2007-2013]  Working as: Sr. Planning Engineer Abdullah Ahmed Al-Khadrawy
  • 3. 11.1 Plan Risk Management 11.2 Identify Risks 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 11.5 Plan Risk Responses conducting risk management planning, identification, analysis, response planning, and controlling risk on a project. The objectives of project risk management are to increase the likelihood and impact of positive events, and decrease the likelihood and impact of negative events in the project 11. Project Risk Management 11.6 Control Risks
  • 4. Riskappetite the degree of uncertainty an entity is willing to take on, in anticipation of a reward Risktolerance the degree, amount, or volume of risk that an organization or individual will withstand Riskthreshold measures along the level of uncertainty or the level of impact at which a stakeholder may have a specific interest. Below that risk threshold, the organization will accept the risk. Above that risk threshold, the organization will not tolerate the risk. RISK AT TITUDE
  • 5. RISK Through the Project Lifecycle
  • 6.
  • 7. 11.1 Plan Risk Management Planning .1 Project management plan .2 Project charter .3 Stakeholder register .4 Enterprise environmental factors .5 Organizational process assets .1 Analytical techniques .2 Expert judgment .3 Meetings .1 Risk management plan defining how to conduct risk management activities for a project
  • 8. 11.1 Plan Risk Management 1. Project management plan 2. Project charter 3. Stakeholder register 4. Enterprise environmental factors 5. Organizational process assets
  • 9. 11.1 Plan Risk Management 4. Enterprise environmental factors • risk attitudes, thresholds, and tolerances that describe the degree of risk that an organization will withstand. 5. Organizational process assets • Risk categories, Common definitions of concepts and terms, Risk statement formats, Standard templates, Roles and responsibilities, Authority levels for decision making, and Lessons learned.
  • 10. 11.1 Plan Risk Management 1. Analytical techniques 2. Expert judgment 3. Meetings
  • 11. 11.1 Plan Risk Management 1. Analytical techniques • used to understand and define the overall risk management context of the project. • Risk management context is a combination of stakeholder risk attitudes and the strategic risk exposure of a given project based on the overall project context. • For example, a stakeholder risk profile analysis may be performed to grade and qualify the project stakeholder risk appetite and tolerance. Other techniques, such as the use of strategic risk scoring sheets, are used to provide a high-level assessment • Depending on these assessments, the project team can allocate appropriate resources and focus on the risk management activities
  • 12. 11.1 Plan Risk Management 2. Expert judgment • Senior management, • Project stakeholders, • Project managers who have worked on projects in the same area (directly or through lessons learned), • Subject matter experts (SMEs) in business or project area, • Industry groups and consultants, and • Professional and technical associations.
  • 13. 11.1 Plan Risk Management 3. Meetings • Project teams hold planning meetings to develop the risk management plan. • Attendees: the project manager, selected project team members and stakeholders, anyone in the organization with responsibility to manage the risk planning and execution activities, and others, as needed.
  • 14. 11.1 Plan Risk Management 1. Risk Management Plan • Methodology. • Roles and responsibilities. • Budgeting. • Timing. • Risk categories. • Definitions of risk probability and impact. • Probability and impact matrix. • Revised stakeholders’ tolerances. • Reporting formats. • Tracking.
  • 15. 11.1 Plan Risk Management 1. Risk Management Plan • Methodology: the approaches, tools, and data sources that will be used to perform risk management on the project • Roles and responsibilities: the lead, support, and risk management team members for each type of activity in the risk management plan, and clarifies their responsibilities.
  • 16. 11.1 Plan Risk Management 1. Risk Management Plan • Budgeting: Estimates * funds needed, based on assigned resources, for inclusion in the cost baseline and establishes * protocols for application of contingency and management reserves • Timing: the lead, support, and risk management team members for each type of activity in the risk management plan, and clarifies their responsibilities.
  • 17. 11.1 Plan Risk Management 1. Risk Management Plan • Risk categories : means for grouping potential causes of risk • May be a simple list or RBS (Risk Breakdown Structure) Example of a Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS)
  • 18. 11.1 Plan Risk Management 1. Risk Management Plan • Definitions of risk probability and impact. : - The quality and credibility of the risk analysis requires that different levels of risk probability and impact be defined that are specific to the project context. - May be applied for positive and/or negative risks - General definitions of probability levels and impact levels are tailored to the individual project
  • 19. 11.1 Plan Risk Management 1. Risk Management Plan • Probability and impact matrix. :
  • 20. 11.1 Plan Risk Management 1. Risk Management Plan • Reporting formats: (1) how the outcomes of the risk management process will be documented, analysed, and distributed (2) describes the content and format of the risk register . • Tracking: • how risk activities will be (1) recorded. (2) audited.
  • 21. 11.2 Identify Risks Planning .1 Risk management plan .2 Cost management plan .3 Schedule management plan .4 Quality management plan .5 Human resource management plan .6 Scope baseline .7 Activity cost estimates .8 Activity duration estimates .9 Stakeholder register .10 Project documents .11 Procurement documents .12 Enterprise environmental factors .13 Organizational process assets .1 Documentation reviews .2 Information gathering techniques .3 Checklist analysis .4 Assumptions analysis .5 Diagramming techniques .6 SWOT analysis .7 Expert judgment .1 Risk register determining which risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics
  • 22. 11.2 Identify Risks • Iterative process, i.e. new risks may evolve or become known as the project progresses through its life cycle. • The format of the risk statements should be consistent to ensure that each risk is understood clearly and unambiguously. • Participants from the project members (project manager, project team members, risk management team (if assigned), customers) • Participants from outside the project:- other project managers, stakeholders, and risk management experts.
  • 23. 11.2 Identify Risks 1. Risk management plan 2. Cost management plan 3. Schedule management plan 4. Quality management plan 5. Human resource management plan 6. Scope baseline 7. Activity cost estimates 8. Activity duration estimates 9. Stakeholder register 10.Project documents 11.Procurement documents 12.Enterprise environmental factors 13.Organizational process assets
  • 24. 11.2 Identify Risks 10. Project documents • Project charter • Project schedule • Schedule network diagrams • Issue log • Quality checklist • Other information proven to be valuable in identifying risks
  • 25. 11.2 Identify Risks 12. Enterprise environmental factors • Published information, including commercial databases • Academic studies • Published checklists • Benchmarking • Industry studies • Risk attitudes
  • 26. 11.2 Identify Risks 13. Organizational process assets • Project files, including actual data • Organizational and project process controls • Risk statement formats or templates • Lessons learned.
  • 27. 11.2 Identify Risks 1. Documentation reviews 2. Information gathering techniques 3. Checklist analysis 4. Assumptions analysis 5. Diagramming techniques 6. SWOT analysis 7. Expert judgment
  • 28. 11.2 Identify Risks 2. Information Gathering Techniques • Brainstorming • The goal of brainstorming is to obtain a comprehensive list of project risks. • The project team brainstorm, with a multidisciplinary experts who are not part of the team. • Ideas about project risk are generated under the leadership of a facilitator. • Categories of risk in a risk breakdown structure, can be used as a framework. • Risks are then identified and categorized by type of risk and their definitions are refined.
  • 29. 11.2 Identify Risks 2. Information Gathering Techniques • Delphi technique • The Delphi technique is a way to reach a consensus of experts. • Project risk experts participate in this technique anonymously. • A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas about the important project risks. • The responses are summarized and are then recirculated to the experts for further comment. • Consensus may be reached in a few rounds of this process. • The Delphi technique helps reduce bias in the data and keeps any one person from having undue influence on the outcome. Facilitator Expert 2Expert 1
  • 30. 11.2 Identify Risks 2. Information Gathering Techniques • Root cause analysis • identify a problem, discover the underlying causes that lead to it, and develop preventive action..
  • 31. 11.2 Identify Risks 5. Diagramming Techniques • Cause and effect diagrams (Ishikawa – Fishbone )
  • 32. 11.2 Identify Risks 5. Diagramming Techniques • System or process flow charts • various elements of a system interrelate and the mechanism of causation.
  • 33. 11.2 Identify Risks 5. Diagramming Techniques • Influence diagrams • Causal influences, • Time ordering of events, • Other relationships among variables and outcomes
  • 34. 11.2 Identify Risks 6. (SWOT) analysis
  • 35. 11.2 Identify Risks 7. Expert Judgment
  • 36. 11.2 Identify Risks 1. Risk Register (First Entry)
  • 37. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Planning .1 Risk management plan .2 Scope baseline .3 Risk register .4 Enterprise environmental factors .5 Organizational process assets .1 Risk probability and impact assessment .2 Probability and impact matrix .3 Risk data quality assessment .4 Risk categorization .5 Risk urgency assessment .6 Expert judgment .1 Project documents updates prioritizing risks for further analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact
  • 38. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 1. Risk management plan 2. Scope baseline 3. Risk register 4. Enterprise environmental factors 5. Organizational process assets
  • 39. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 1. Risk probability and impact assessment 2. Probability and impact matrix 3. Risk data quality assessment 4. Risk categorization 5. Risk urgency assessment 6. Expert judgment
  • 40. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 1. Risk probability and impact assessment For each specified RISK: * Risk probability assessment = the likelihood * Risk impact assessment = the potential effect on a project objective  such as schedule, cost, quality, or performance, including both negative effects for threats and positive effects for opportunities. ** Project team members and knowledgeable persons external to the project are included.
  • 41. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 2. Probability and Impact Matrix o Risk Rating, is typically conducted using a look-up table or a probability and impact matrix. o Descriptive terms or numeric values can be used depending on organizational preference. o The organization should determine the rating classification (high risk, moderate risk, and low risk). o Risk rating rules can be tailored in the Plan Risk Management process. o Risks with low ratings will be included within the risk register as part of the watch list for future monitoring.
  • 42. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 2. Probability and Impact Matrix
  • 43. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 3. Risk Data Quality Assessment The use of low-quality risk data may lead to a qualitative risk analysis of little use to the project. o If data quality is unacceptable, it may be necessary to gather better data. o Often, the collection of information about risks is difficult, and consumes more time and resources than originally planned. oThe numbers of steps in the scale are usually established when defining the risk attitude of the organization.
  • 44. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 4. Risk Categorization Some of proposed Categorization Bases WBS RBS useful categories (e.g., project phase) root causes
  • 45. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 5. Risk Urgency Assessment o Risks requiring near-term responses may be considered more urgent to address. o Indicators of priority may include probability of detecting the risk, time to affect a risk response, symptoms and warning signs, and the risk rating. o In some qualitative analyses, the assessment of risk urgency is combined with the risk ranking
  • 46. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 1. Project Documents Updates 1. Risk register updates. 1) assessments of probability and impacts for each risk, 2) risk ranking or scores, 3) risk urgency information 4) risk categorization, and 5) a watch list for low probability risks 6) risks requiring further analysis.
  • 47. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 1. Project Documents Updates 2. Assumptions log updates. 1) The assumptions log needs to be revisited to accommodate the new information. 2) Assumptions may be incorporated into the project scope statement or in a separate assumptions log.
  • 48.
  • 49. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Planning .1 Risk management plan .2 Cost management plan .3 Schedule management plan .4 Risk register .5 Enterprise environmental factors .6 Organizational process assets .1 Data gathering and representation techniques .2 Quantitative risk analysis and modelling techniques .3 Expert judgment .1 Project documents updates numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives
  • 50. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 1. Risk management plan 2. Cost management plan 3. Schedule management plan 4. Risk register 5. Enterprise environmental factors 6. Organizational process assets
  • 51. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 1. Data gathering and representation techniques 2. Quantitative risk analysis and modelling techniques 3. Expert judgment
  • 52. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 1. Data gathering and representation techniques 1. Interviewing - Based on experience and historical data to quantify the probability and impact of risks on project objectives. - The information needed depends upon the type of probability distributions that will be used. - E.g. Three points estimation 11-13 Three points estimation
  • 53. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 1. Data gathering and representation techniques 2. Probability distributions - Extensively used in modeling and simulation. - Uniform distributions can be used if all the data are at the same degree of likelihood. * E.g. the early concept stage of design. The two commonly used Probability distribution
  • 54. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques 1. Sensitivity analysis - Determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project. - It shows how the variations in project’s objectives correlate with variations in different uncertainties. - It can show the extent limit for each risk, when it individually occurs. - E.G. Tornado Diagram: * a special type of bar chart used for comparing the relative importance of the variables. * In this figure, each uncertainty has a horizontal bar and is ordered vertically to show uncertainties with a decreasing spread from the base values. Example of Tornado Diagram
  • 55. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques 2. Expected monetary value (EMV) analysis - calculates the average outcome of the proposed scenarios. - It gives (+) values for the benefits, while the threats take (-) ones. - It can show the extent limit for each risk, when it individually occurs. - EMV requires a risk-neutral assumption— neither risk averse nor risk seeking. - Decision Tree: - Most important tool, for comparing the EMV for different proposals to validate the choices. - Can be used to compare: e.g.(Vendor selection, Make or Buy analysis, Project selection,
  • 57. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques 3. Modeling and simulation - Translates the uncertainties of the project into their potential impact on project objectives. - Simulations are typically performed using the Monte Carlo technique. - The project model is computed many times (iterated), with the input values (e.g., cost estimates or activity durations) chosen at random for each iteration from the probability distributions of these variables. - A histogram is calculated from the iterations(e.g., total cost or completion date) . - For a cost risk analysis, a simulation uses 1) cost estimates. - For a schedule risk analysis,1) the schedule network diagram and 2) duration estimates are used.
  • 58. Monte Carlo simulation technique Figure 11-17. Cost Risk Simulation Results
  • 59. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 3. Expert Judgment ** Identify potential cost and schedule impacts, to evaluate probability, and to define inputs such as probability distributions into the tools. ** Interpretation of the data. ** Identify the weaknesses and strengths of the tools. ** Experts may determine when a specific tool may or may not be more appropriate given the organization’s capabilities and culture.
  • 60. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 1. Project Documents Updates
  • 61. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 1. Project Documents Updates 1. Assumptions log updates. 2. Probability of achieving cost and time objectives. 3. Prioritized list of quantified risks. 4. Trends in quantitative risk analysis results.
  • 62. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses Planning .1 Risk management plan .2 Risk register .1 Strategies for negative risks or threats .2 Strategies for positive risks or opportunities .3 Contingent response strategies .4 Expert judgment .1 Project management plan updates .2 Project documents updates developing options and actions to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to project objectives
  • 63. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses -- The aim of Risk Response plan , 1) Risk Trigger : probable events that –if they happens- raises the probability of each risk (positive or negative). 2) Risk Owner: the person or the team, who will be responsible for risk monitoring, and ensuring that the risk response is carried out. 3) Risk Response: which was decided for each risk, to be applied for.
  • 64. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses -- The common Risk Response Strategies, OPPORTUNITIS (+ve risks) THREATS (-ve risks) ACCEPT TRANSFER MITIGATE AVOID ACCEPT SHARE ENHANCE EXPLOIT
  • 65. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses -- Risk Response Strategies - The strategy or mix of strategies most likely to be effective should be selected for each risk. - Risk analysis tools, such as decision tree, can be used to choose the responses. - A fallback plan (plan B): can be developed for: 1) implementation if the selected strategy turns out not to be fully effective. 2) or if an accepted risk occurs.
  • 66. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses 1. Risk management plan 2. Risk register
  • 67. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses 1. Strategies for negative risks or threats 2. Strategies for positive risks or opportunities 3. Contingent response strategies 4. Expert judgment
  • 68. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses 1. Strategies for negative risks or threats - Avoid, Mitigate, Transfer, or Accept the negative risk (the threat). - Avoidance and mitigation are good for critical risks with high impact, while transference and acceptance are good for threats that are less critical and with low overall impact.  Avoid. (-) Eliminate the threat or protect the project from its impact. (-) It involves changing the project management plan to eliminate the threat entirely. (-) The project manager isolates the project objectives from the risk’s impact or change the objective that is in jeopardy. (-) E.g.: extending the schedule, changing the strategy, or reducing scope. (-) The most radical avoidance strategy is to shut down the project entirely.
  • 69. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses 1. Strategies for negative risks or threats  Mitigate. (-) Reduce the probability of occurrence or impact of a risk, to be within acceptable threshold limits. (-) Mitigation may require prototype development to reduce the risk (-) E.g.: Adopting less complex processes, conducting more tests, or choosing a more stable supplier. (-) a mitigation might address the risk impact by targeting linkages that determine the severity. For example, designing redundancy into a system.
  • 70. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses 1. Strategies for negative risks or threats  Transfer. (-) The project team shifts the impact of a threat to a third party. (-) Gives another party responsibility for its management— it does not eliminate it. (-) Transferring liability for risk is most effective in dealing with financial risk exposure. (-) E.g. insurance, performance bonds, warranties, guarantees, etc. (-) The use Contracts or agreements may be used to transfer liability for specified risks to another party. E.g. use of a cost-plus contract transfers the cost risk to the buyer (Owner), while a fixed-price contract transfers risk to the seller (Applicator or Contractor).
  • 71. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses 1. Strategies for negative risks or threats  Accept. (-) acknowledge the risk and not take any action unless the risk occurs. (-) This strategy is adopted where it is not possible or cost-effective to address a specific risk in any other way. (-) Passive acceptance requires no action except to document the strategy, the project team deal with the risks as they occur, and to periodically review the threat. (-) Active acceptance strategy is to establish a contingency reserve, including amounts of time, money, or resources to handle the risks.
  • 72. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses 2. Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities  Exploit: Ensure that the opportunity is realized. (-) E.g.: (1)assigning talented resources to reduce the time , or (2) using new technologies to reduce cost and/or duration required to realize project objectives.  Enhance: increase the probability and/or the positive impacts. (-) E.g.: adding more resources to an activity to finish early.  Share: allocating some or all of the ownership of the opportunity to a third party who is best able to capture the opportunity . (-) E.g.: risk-sharing partnerships, teams, special-purpose companies, or joint ventures.  Accept: willing to take advantage of the opportunity if it arises, but not actively pursuing it. (-) E.g.: Accepting achievement bonus, was not originally stated in the contract.
  • 73. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses 3. Contingent Response Strategies (-) Some responses are designed for use only if certain events occur.. (-) . Events that trigger the contingency response, such as missing intermediate milestones or gaining higher priority with a supplier, should be defined and tracked. (-) Risk responses identified using this technique are often called contingency plans or fallback plans
  • 74. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses 1. Project Management Plan Updates 2. Project Documents Updates
  • 75. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses 1. Project Management Plan Updates 1. Schedule management plan. 2. Cost management plan. 3. Quality management plan. 4. Procurement management plan. 5. Human resource management plan. 6. Scope baseline. 7. Schedule baseline. 8. Cost baseline.
  • 76. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses 2. Project Documents Updates 1. Risk Register Updates : a) Risk owners and assigned responsibilities; Agreed-upon response strategies; b) Specific actions to implement the chosen response strategy; c) Trigger conditions, symptoms, and warning signs of a risk occurrence; Budget and schedule activities required to implement the chosen responses; Contingency plans and triggers that call for their execution; d) Fallback plans for use as a reaction to a risk that has occurred and the primary response proves to be inadequate; e) Residual risks that are expected to remain after planned responses have been taken, as well as those that have been deliberately accepted; f) Secondary risks that arise as a direct outcome of implementing a risk response; g) Contingency reserves that are calculated based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project and the organization’s risk thresholds.
  • 77. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses - Residual risks (Less Important) that are expected to remain after planned responses have been taken, as well as those that have been deliberately accepted - Secondary risks (Generated from Risk Responses) that arise as a direct outcome of implementing a risk response.
  • 78. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses 2. Project Documents Updates 2. Assumptions’ log updates 3. Technical documentation updates 4. Change requests
  • 79. 11.6 Control Risks Monitoring&Controlling .1 Project management plan .2 Risk register .3 Work performance data .4 Work performance reports .1 Risk reassessment .2 Risk audits .3 Variance and trend analysis .4 Technical performance measurement .5 Reserve analysis .6 Meetings .1 Work performance information .2 Change requests .3 Project management plan updates .4 Project documents updates .5 Organizational process assets updates implementing risk response plans, tracking identified risks, monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks, and evaluating risk process effectiveness throughout the project
  • 80. 11.6 Control Risks 1. Project management plan 2. Risk register 3. Work performance data 4. Work performance reports
  • 81. 11.6 Control Risks 1. Risk reassessment 2. Risk audits 3. Variance and trend analysis 4. Technical performance measurement 5. Reserve analysis 6. Meetings
  • 82. 11.6 Control Risks 1.Risk reassessment ϕ Identification of new risks. ϕ Reassessment of current risks. ϕ The closing of risks that are outdated. ϕ Should be regularly scheduled.
  • 83. 11.6 Control Risks 2. Risk audits ϕ Examine and document the effectiveness of risk responses in dealing with identified risks and their root causes, as well as the effectiveness of the risk management process. ϕ The project manager is responsible for ensuring that risk audits are performed at an appropriate frequency, as defined in the project’s risk management plan. ϕ Risk audits may be included during routine project review meetings, or the team may choose to hold separate risk audit meetings.
  • 84. 11.6 Control Risks 3. Variance and Trend Analysis ϕ Compare the planned results to the actual results. ϕ Trends in the project’s execution should be reviewed using performance information. ϕ Earned value analysis used for monitoring overall project performance.
  • 85. 11.6 Control Risks 4. Technical Performance Measurement ϕ Compares technical accomplishments during project execution to the schedule of technical achievement. ϕ It requires the definition of objective, quantifiable measures of technical performance, which can be used to compare actual results against targets. ϕ Such technical performance measures may include weight, transaction times, number of delivered defects, storage capacity, etc. ϕ Deviation, such as demonstrating more or less functionality than planned at a milestone, can help to forecast the degree of success in achieving the project’s scope.
  • 86. 11.6 Control Risks 5. Reserve Analysis ϕ Compares the amount of the contingency reserves remaining to the amount of risk remaining at any time in the project in order to determine if the remaining reserve is adequate. 6. Meetings ϕ Project risk management should be an agenda item at periodic status meetings. ϕ The amount of time required for that item will vary, depending upon the identified risks, their priority, and difficulty of response. ϕ The more often risk management is practiced, the easier it becomes. ϕ Frequent discussions about risk make it more likely that people will identify risks and opportunities.
  • 87. 11.6 Control Risks 1. Work performance information 2. Change requests 3. Project management plan updates 4. Project documents updates 5. Organizational process assets updates
  • 88. 11.6 Control Risks 1. Work performance information ϕ Work performance information, as a Control Risks output, provides a mechanism to communicate and support project decision making.
  • 89. 11.6 Control Risks 2. Change requests Implementing contingency plans or workarounds sometimes results in a change request. ϕ Recommended corrective actions. - These are activities that realign the performance of the project work with the project management plan. - They include contingency plans and workarounds. - The latter are responses that were not initially planned, but are required to deal with emerging risks that were previously unidentified or accepted passively. ϕ Recommended preventive actions - These are activities that ensure that future performance of the project work is aligned with the project management plan.
  • 90. 11.6 Control Risks 5. Organizational Process Assets Updates The risk management processes produce information that may be used for future projects ϕ Templates for the risk management plan, including the probability and impact matrix and risk register. ϕ Risk breakdown structure, and ϕ Lessons learned from the project risk management activities. ϕ These documents should be updated as needed and at project closure. ϕ Final versions of the risk register and the risk management plan templates, checklists, and risk breakdown structure are included.
  • 91.