This document discusses future foresight and trends. It begins by noting how much has changed in just 20 years and some predictions for the next 10 years, including advances in areas like biotechnology, nanotechnology, and renewable energy. It then discusses concepts like megatrends, weak signals, scenarios, and different levels of foresight from macro to micro. Various tools for futures work are presented, along with sources for finding weak signals and trends. Population aging and its economic impacts are highlighted. The importance of foresight for strategic management is stressed, and motivations of future employees are considered.
Webinar: Intro to Strategic Foresight & Futures ThinkingMad*Pow
Presented by Mad*Pow Experience Strategist, Liz Possee Corthell.
When the future is uncertain, how can organizations design and innovate boldly but responsibly? Futures thinking is an approach to strategic design that considers what is likely to change and what is likely to stay the same in the future, as a means to be more reflective in strategic planning. Considered by some to be more of an art, and by others to be a science, futures thinking gives us a framework to talk about our current world, and how the world may look in the future.
To quote futurist Dr. Sohail Inayatullah, “With futures thinking, we use the future to change the present. “
In this webinar, you’ll learn that futures thinking is not an effort to predict the future, but rather a means to illuminate unexpected implications of present-day issues that empower individuals and organizations to actively design desirable futures. The emphasis isn’t on what will happen, but on what could happen, given various observed drivers.
It’s a way of gaining new perspectives and context for present-day decisions, as well as for navigating the dilemma at the heart of all strategic thinking: the future can’t be predicted, yet we have to make choices based on what is to come.
This presentation will include a few tools you can start using right away, as well as a few activities to get us thinking about the future.
IFF Three Horizons Framing Transformative Innovationgrahamiff
Core set of slides explaining Three Horizons framework as three perspectives on the future potential of the present moment, plus how these perspectives interact in service of systems transition and 'transformative innovation'.
Last call: FUTURES, STRATEGIC DESIGN & INNOVATION, 23-26 October
(www.idefe.pt/cursos/fsdi
- Help people and organizations to develop the capacity to anticipate trends and explore scenarios and how this can improve your approach to strategy and innovation processes.
- Give firsthand access to the "SCANNING, SENSING AND ACTING" framework, used to anticipate and explore the future, identify new opportunities and build innovative strategies to solve strategic challenges.
- Create and embed a Future strategy and culture in your organization.
- Skills and Tools to become a Chief Futurist Officer or Future Manager.
- Understand and explore emergent and exponential technologies, its global challenges and opportunities.
- Identify critical uncertainties and build Strategic Scenarios.
- Improve strategy making and review how your organization carries out scenario work Analysis of impacts, threats and opportunities for the business.
- Understand the value and impact of Design to business strategy, differentiation and competitive advantage.
- Exploration of Design Thinking and Strategic Design tools to move from consumer and market insight to actionable solutions.
Webinar: Intro to Strategic Foresight & Futures ThinkingMad*Pow
Presented by Mad*Pow Experience Strategist, Liz Possee Corthell.
When the future is uncertain, how can organizations design and innovate boldly but responsibly? Futures thinking is an approach to strategic design that considers what is likely to change and what is likely to stay the same in the future, as a means to be more reflective in strategic planning. Considered by some to be more of an art, and by others to be a science, futures thinking gives us a framework to talk about our current world, and how the world may look in the future.
To quote futurist Dr. Sohail Inayatullah, “With futures thinking, we use the future to change the present. “
In this webinar, you’ll learn that futures thinking is not an effort to predict the future, but rather a means to illuminate unexpected implications of present-day issues that empower individuals and organizations to actively design desirable futures. The emphasis isn’t on what will happen, but on what could happen, given various observed drivers.
It’s a way of gaining new perspectives and context for present-day decisions, as well as for navigating the dilemma at the heart of all strategic thinking: the future can’t be predicted, yet we have to make choices based on what is to come.
This presentation will include a few tools you can start using right away, as well as a few activities to get us thinking about the future.
IFF Three Horizons Framing Transformative Innovationgrahamiff
Core set of slides explaining Three Horizons framework as three perspectives on the future potential of the present moment, plus how these perspectives interact in service of systems transition and 'transformative innovation'.
Last call: FUTURES, STRATEGIC DESIGN & INNOVATION, 23-26 October
(www.idefe.pt/cursos/fsdi
- Help people and organizations to develop the capacity to anticipate trends and explore scenarios and how this can improve your approach to strategy and innovation processes.
- Give firsthand access to the "SCANNING, SENSING AND ACTING" framework, used to anticipate and explore the future, identify new opportunities and build innovative strategies to solve strategic challenges.
- Create and embed a Future strategy and culture in your organization.
- Skills and Tools to become a Chief Futurist Officer or Future Manager.
- Understand and explore emergent and exponential technologies, its global challenges and opportunities.
- Identify critical uncertainties and build Strategic Scenarios.
- Improve strategy making and review how your organization carries out scenario work Analysis of impacts, threats and opportunities for the business.
- Understand the value and impact of Design to business strategy, differentiation and competitive advantage.
- Exploration of Design Thinking and Strategic Design tools to move from consumer and market insight to actionable solutions.
How can creative and concerned citizens tell more effective stories about the future? Make them different, deep, and diverse.
This talk by design futurist Stuart Candy from Carnegie Mellon University was given in April 2020 during the covid-19 pandemic to help launch the online collaborative storytelling experiment #FromTheFutures, hosted by Lance Weiler and the Digital Storytelling Lab at Columbia University.
Reinventing the Last Mile: Win the Race to the Top (AU)accenture
A pivotal moment has arrived for traditional postal organisations. As retailers race to the top to win customer loyalty and market share, they are transforming their supply chains to enable the fast and free shipping that customers not only want, but expect. However, traditional postal organisations have not responded accordingly, and are now putting their future survival at risk. But by joining the race to the top—and taking advantage of their enviable position to offer the solutions retailers are looking for—they can transform their networks and win the last mile for decades to come.
Our Morgenbooster: Designing for Possible Futures.
Get a sneak-peak into how to apply futures thinking to your design processes to help create reactive and proactive brands, businesses, and products.
A hands-on approach to applying foresight by Andy Hines, Principal at Hinesite and Lecturer/Executive-in-Residence in Futures Studies at University of Houston.
BCG’s 2018 global challengers—100 rapidly globalizing companies from emerging markets—are getting ahead of the competition by using digital technologies.
Presentation based on Harvard Business Review article: "What is Disruptive Innovation?", by Clayton M. Cristensen, Michael E. Raynor, and Rory McDonald – December, 2015 issue.
The theory of disruptive Innovation was introduced in the article: "Disruptive Technologies: Catching the Wave", by Joseph L. Bower and Clayton M. Christensen from the HBR january–february 1995 issue.
The Circular Economy Handbook shows how companies are taking transformative steps toward circularity, creating new opportunities for competitiveness. Read more. (https://www.accenture.com/us-en/about/events/the-circular-economy-handbook?c=acn_glb_purposeslideshare_11151809&n=otc_0220)
Presentaion on Megatrends for the Future by Oilver Riebartsch during the 6th International Benchmarking Conference organized by Dubai Quality Group from 6-7 March 2012 at Al Bustan Rotana Dubai
How can creative and concerned citizens tell more effective stories about the future? Make them different, deep, and diverse.
This talk by design futurist Stuart Candy from Carnegie Mellon University was given in April 2020 during the covid-19 pandemic to help launch the online collaborative storytelling experiment #FromTheFutures, hosted by Lance Weiler and the Digital Storytelling Lab at Columbia University.
Reinventing the Last Mile: Win the Race to the Top (AU)accenture
A pivotal moment has arrived for traditional postal organisations. As retailers race to the top to win customer loyalty and market share, they are transforming their supply chains to enable the fast and free shipping that customers not only want, but expect. However, traditional postal organisations have not responded accordingly, and are now putting their future survival at risk. But by joining the race to the top—and taking advantage of their enviable position to offer the solutions retailers are looking for—they can transform their networks and win the last mile for decades to come.
Our Morgenbooster: Designing for Possible Futures.
Get a sneak-peak into how to apply futures thinking to your design processes to help create reactive and proactive brands, businesses, and products.
A hands-on approach to applying foresight by Andy Hines, Principal at Hinesite and Lecturer/Executive-in-Residence in Futures Studies at University of Houston.
BCG’s 2018 global challengers—100 rapidly globalizing companies from emerging markets—are getting ahead of the competition by using digital technologies.
Presentation based on Harvard Business Review article: "What is Disruptive Innovation?", by Clayton M. Cristensen, Michael E. Raynor, and Rory McDonald – December, 2015 issue.
The theory of disruptive Innovation was introduced in the article: "Disruptive Technologies: Catching the Wave", by Joseph L. Bower and Clayton M. Christensen from the HBR january–february 1995 issue.
The Circular Economy Handbook shows how companies are taking transformative steps toward circularity, creating new opportunities for competitiveness. Read more. (https://www.accenture.com/us-en/about/events/the-circular-economy-handbook?c=acn_glb_purposeslideshare_11151809&n=otc_0220)
Presentaion on Megatrends for the Future by Oilver Riebartsch during the 6th International Benchmarking Conference organized by Dubai Quality Group from 6-7 March 2012 at Al Bustan Rotana Dubai
A core challenge over the time been will be to attract and retain a skilled work force as the labor market continues to tighten, technology continues to evolve, and fewer foreign students immigrate to America for job opportunities. This situation is exacerbated as companies find themselves managing four generations of American workers:
1- Silents (Born between 1925 and 1946)
2- Baby Boomers (Born between 1946 and 1964)
3- Generation Xers (Born between 1965 and 1980)
4- Generation Ys or Millennials (born after 1980)
Understanding the New IAB MMA Mobile Web Ad Measurement GuidelinesIABmembership
In February 2011, the IAB and the MMA jointly released the mobile web ad measurement guidelines, establishing standard definitions and methodology for counting ad impressions on the mobile Web. Positioned as a giant step forward for the mobile advertising industry, the guidelines will help create more confidence in the metrics that make the market run.
This Webinar, included speakers from the MMA, IAB, and MRC, and helped to explain what the guidelines cover, and allowed for numerout attendee questions. It will also feature a brief roundtable discussion with a group of auditors, explaining the process and procedures behind third party audits against these guidelines.
Speakers:
Joe Laszlo, Deputy Director, Mobile Marketing Center of Excellence, IAB
Leo Scullin, Industry Initiatives, Mobile Marketing Association
George Ivie, CEO and Executive Director, Media Rating Council
Spain work tech 2050 scenarios and national workshopsJerome Glenn
Intro to The Millennium Project, inevitability of new economics, global study on future work/technology 2050, three global work/tech 2050 scenarios, and workshops to explore national long-range strategies to address issue raised in the scenarios.
Technology & Human Development - A Capability ApproachIlse Oosterlaken
This is a lecture about my book Technology & Human Development (2015), in which well-being, agency and justice are the core values – as a powerful normative lens to examine technology and its role in development. This approach attaches central moral importance to individual human capabilities, understood as effective opportunities people have to lead the kind of lives they have reason to value. The book examines the strengths, limitations and versatility of the capability approach when applied to technology, and shows the need to supplement it with other approaches in order to deal with the challenges that technology raises.
The first chapter places the capability approach within the context of broader debates about technology and human development – discussing amongst others the appropriate technology movement. The middle part then draws on philosophy and ethics of technology in order to deepen our understanding of the relation between technical artefacts and human capabilities, arguing that we must simultaneously ‘zoom in’ on the details of technological design and ‘zoom out’ to see the broader socio-technical embedding of a technology. The book examines whether technology is merely a neutral instrument that expands what people can do and be in life, or whether technology transfers may also impose certain views of what it means to lead a good life. The final chapter examines the capability approach in relation to contemporary debates about ‘ICT for Development’ (ICT4D), as the technology domain where the approach has been most extensively applied so far.
Estado Futuro fue una conferencia internacional, organizada en conjunto con la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos (OECD) el 30 y 31 de Marzo en el GAM, que abordo temáticas de innovación en el sector público, donde más de 300 expertos y actores – como Ministros, Jefes de servicio, funcionarios, académicos e innovadores públicos – compartieron experiencias sobre los desafíos que enfrentan hoy los gobiernos para diseñar e implementar sus agendas de innovación pública.
Para saber más de Estado Futuro, ingresa a www.estadofuturo.cl
Presentation given by Alain-Michel Boudet from University of Toulouse III, Paul Sabatier in the framework of the Emergence Forum Barcelona
Biocat organized the Barcelona Emergence Forum (April 10-11th, 2014, Congress Palace, Montjuïc) supported by the TRANSBIO SUDOE, a translational cooperation project dedicated to innovation in life sciences in South-West Europe. The Barcelona Emergence Forum contributed to bringing together Academics, Companies, Investment Entities, Technology Platforms and Technology Transfer Offices from Spain, France and Portugal to set up collaborative projects on Human Health & Agro-food Innovation.
More information at: http://www.b2match.eu/emergenceforum2014
This report analyzes key drivers that will reshape the landscape of work and identifies key work skills needed in the next 10 years.
Credits:
Author: Anna Davies, Devin Fidler, Marina Gorbis
Creative Direction: Jean Hagan
Production Editor: Lisa Mumbach
Design and Production: Karin Lubeck, Jody Radzik
This is the topic-Title Remote SurgeryThesis (also known as te.docxMARK547399
This is the topic-
Title: Remote Surgery
Thesis: (also known as telesurgery) is the ability for a doctor to perform surgery on a patient even though they are not physically in the same location. It is a form of telepresence.
I also have a few references you can use I research I just need the final paper done
Nichols, G. (2016, January 16). Remote Robotic Surgery is both Practical and Safe. Retrieved from
http://www.zdnet.com/article/remote-robotic-surgery-is-both-practical-and-safe/
KAKSI, M., BASARAN, R., BOLUKBASI, F. H., BALKUV, E., & BALAK, N. (2015). Remote Cerebral and Cerebellar Hemorrhage after Spinal Surgery: A Case Report and Literature Review.
Journal Of Neurological Sciences
,
32
(1), 220-230.
Lanfranco, A. (2004, January 2). Robotic Surgery. Retrieved from
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1356187/
Pinkerton, S. (2013, November 17). The Pros and Cons of Robotic Surgery. Retrieved from
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304655104579163430371597334
This is what needs to be included in the paper
You might want to explore the connections that comprise that discipline:
Pure Sciences
: How does this technology work? Try to avoid the “How Things Work” website as your resource for this portion of the paper. Instead cite real scientists and fundamental scientific laws (e.g. laws of gravitation, Boyle’s law, laws of thermodynamics, etc.) underpinning the technology. Cite technical manuals, using scientific explanations, but work to express the scientific concepts in lay terms. Use physics, chemistry, biosciences, mathematics, etc. Try to sound “nerdy” but clear. If you need to provide a glossary at the end of your paper, that’s okay.
History
: Trace the major events along the path to where we are today with the technology. You have to include a timeline as part of your discussion or in the Appendix. You also have to discuss in detail the most recent developments while trying to give a macro perspective. What happened sequentially, chronologically, and what led to the innovations that we see today? Who were the major players? What issues presented themselves as obstacles, and what were opportunities that advanced the technology? What factors (economic, scientific, etc) drove the technology. Tell us the story of how “blank” came to be.
Political Causes/Effects
: Look at government policy, government intervention, government involvement (support or lack of support, funding), both nationally and internationally. Consider Congress, the President, the Supreme Court (decisions), the rate of change, liberalism, conservatism, legislation, litigation, etc. What political factors are at work in the progression or regression of the technology (e.g. lobbyists, special interest groups, partisan views, vocal advocates or spokespersons)? For example: The Americans with Disabilities Act was designed to prevent discrimination and encourage accessibility to public facilities; it impacted architect ...
Dr. Totti Könnölä from Impetu Solutions waas invited to give a keynote speech on 'Opening Horizons: What kind of new approaches are available?' in the COST Foresight on Future Demand for Forest-based Products and Services: Dissemination Conference on September 13, 2011, in Sekocin Stary (Near Warsaw)/Poland.
Service Research, Innovation, and (Safe) Practice in the Humanity-Centered AI Era
EMAC - https://www.emac-online.org/interest-groups/emac-special-interest-groups
EMAC SIG Service Marketing - https://www.linkedin.com/company/emac-sig-service-marketing/
Service Marketing Seminar - https://sites.google.com/view/service-marketing-seminar/startseite
Kannattaako kansalaisopiston hyödyntää Facebook-mainontaa? Esitys Puulan seutuopiston kokemuksista maksullisesta ja maksuttomasta Facebook-mainonnasta Kansalaisopistojen liiton Tammiseminaarissa 28.1.2017.
Macroeconomics- Movie Location
This will be used as part of your Personal Professional Portfolio once graded.
Objective:
Prepare a presentation or a paper using research, basic comparative analysis, data organization and application of economic information. You will make an informed assessment of an economic climate outside of the United States to accomplish an entertainment industry objective.
The simplified electron and muon model, Oscillating Spacetime: The Foundation...RitikBhardwaj56
Discover the Simplified Electron and Muon Model: A New Wave-Based Approach to Understanding Particles delves into a groundbreaking theory that presents electrons and muons as rotating soliton waves within oscillating spacetime. Geared towards students, researchers, and science buffs, this book breaks down complex ideas into simple explanations. It covers topics such as electron waves, temporal dynamics, and the implications of this model on particle physics. With clear illustrations and easy-to-follow explanations, readers will gain a new outlook on the universe's fundamental nature.
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...Levi Shapiro
Letter from the Congress of the United States regarding Anti-Semitism sent June 3rd to MIT President Sally Kornbluth, MIT Corp Chair, Mark Gorenberg
Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202
Thinking of getting a dog? Be aware that breeds like Pit Bulls, Rottweilers, and German Shepherds can be loyal and dangerous. Proper training and socialization are crucial to preventing aggressive behaviors. Ensure safety by understanding their needs and always supervising interactions. Stay safe, and enjoy your furry friends!
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp NetworkTechSoup
Dive into the world of AI! Experts Jon Hill and Tareq Monaur will guide you through AI's role in enhancing nonprofit websites and basic marketing strategies, making it easy to understand and apply.
Executive Directors Chat Leveraging AI for Diversity, Equity, and InclusionTechSoup
Let’s explore the intersection of technology and equity in the final session of our DEI series. Discover how AI tools, like ChatGPT, can be used to support and enhance your nonprofit's DEI initiatives. Participants will gain insights into practical AI applications and get tips for leveraging technology to advance their DEI goals.
MATATAG CURRICULUM: ASSESSING THE READINESS OF ELEM. PUBLIC SCHOOL TEACHERS I...NelTorrente
In this research, it concludes that while the readiness of teachers in Caloocan City to implement the MATATAG Curriculum is generally positive, targeted efforts in professional development, resource distribution, support networks, and comprehensive preparation can address the existing gaps and ensure successful curriculum implementation.
How to Build a Module in Odoo 17 Using the Scaffold MethodCeline George
Odoo provides an option for creating a module by using a single line command. By using this command the user can make a whole structure of a module. It is very easy for a beginner to make a module. There is no need to make each file manually. This slide will show how to create a module using the scaffold method.
This slide is special for master students (MIBS & MIFB) in UUM. Also useful for readers who are interested in the topic of contemporary Islamic banking.
Advantages and Disadvantages of CMS from an SEO Perspective
Future foresight
1. ”THE CHALLENGE OF
FUTURE FORESIGHT”
21 November 2012
Sari-Maarit Peltola
University Teacher, Lic.Ph.
2. From Determinism to
Determination
Three Kinds of People:
• People who wonder what happened
• People who watch things happen
• People who make things happen
Four Possible Attitudes:
· Passivity
· Reactivity
· Proactivity
· Foresight
(Aaltonen 2005)
3. 20 years ago there was NO:
• Internet, World Wide Web, PCs, or mobile phones
• European Union, WTO, ICC, or NATO in Eastern Europe
• Talk of globalization, cloned sheep, genetically modified food
and drugs, and stem cells repairing and enhancing the body
• Robots surveying Mars
• Asymmetrical warfare… and most believed that a nuclear
WW III would have destroyed the world by now
• AIDS
(Aaltonen 2005)
4. …in the NEXT 10 years
• IQ becomes the competitive advantage in the global knowledge economy
(personalized food, genetic engineering, computer enhanced learning)
• Stem cells from cows and fish to produce meat
• Nanotechnology reduces pollution, raises living standards of the poor
• Life Extension begins to look like a realistic option while the aging population
increases economic concerns
• Solar Power Satellites for world’s electricity needs without producing
greenhouse gases or nuclear waste
• Genetic engineering and artificial intelligence creates new life forms that
achieve awareness and evolve – with unknown economic consequences
• A global brain emerges from Internet evolving later into
Conscious-Technology
(Aaltonen 2005)
6. WHY FORESIGHT?
If a company is not driven by its vision, strategy and values, it
will be unable effectively to manage and use its potential
competence-based resources.
The company’s future is influnced by both internal and
external factors.
Forecasting changes has become a core element of the
strategic management of organizations.
Idea of foresight is to look for options and opportunities for
change before the business is forced to change.
The main axis of competiton is between pioneers and early
adopters of new business concepts, and reactive and
conformist organizations.
(Wilenius 2008)
9. Ennakoinnin tasot (Becker)
Kokonaisvaltainen: ennakointi kattaa koko spektrin
yhteiskunnasta teknologiaan (esim. Philips, DaimlerChrystler,
Decathlon, Ericsson, EDF)
Makro-tasoinen: ennakointi kattaa monia erilaisia aihealueita
(Aventis, BASF; BT)
Meso-tasoinen: ennakointi keskittyy tiettyyn
tutkimuskenttään, tiedekysymykseen tai tuotealueeseen (DB,
Volvo, Siemens, IBM)
Mikrotasoinen: ennakointi liittyy johonkin määrättyyn
tutkimusprojektiin tai tuotteeseen (P&G, Lufthansa)
(Hiltunen 2012)
17. Väestö iän ja sukupuolen mukaan vuonna 2010
(Tilastokeskuksen väestöennuste, 2009)
18. Väestö iän ja sukupuolen mukaan vuonna 2050, ennuste
(Tilastokeskuksen väestöennuste, 2009)
19. Kulutus ikäryhmittäin
(VATT/Riihelä 2006)
Nuoret käyttävät selvästi enemmän tietoliikennepalveluja kuin
iäkkäämmät
Ruokamenot eivät enää kasva iän myötä ja ruokamenojen
tilanne ovat tulleet palvelumenot.
60+ ikäiset kuluttavat palveluja (esim. matkailu, asuminen)
aiempaa selvästi enemmän ja palvelujen hankkimiseen
kulutetaan selvästi enemmän rahaa kuin tavaroiden hankintaan
60+ ikäiset kuluttavat palvelujen lisäksi muita ikäryhmiä
enemmän alkoholia ja tupakkaa
23. What motivates future
employees?
Motivation is made up of three things:
• Autonomy
• Opportunity to develop own skills
• Human interaction
External motivation will shift to internal
motivation. (Pink)
(Halava & Pantzar 2010)
24. Antitrends
For EVERY big movement there is an ANTI
movement.
For example:
• Megatrend: More from Less – Anti-trend: Less from
Less
• Megatrend: A Personal Touch – Anti-trend: Reducing
Choice
• Megatrend: Divergent Demographics - Anti-trend:
Growing Global Health
• Megatrend: On the move – Anti-trend: Fulfilment
• Megatrend: iWorld – Anti-trend: Opting out
(Harper 2010)
25. WEAK SIGNALS IN ORGANIZATIONAL
FUTURES LEARNING
Organizational Strategic Foresight Weak
learning signals
Theories of organizational Theories of strategy, Theories of
learning and change foresight tools perception,
information
and weak signals
(Hiltunen 2010)
26. Tools in strategy work
Environmental scanning: SWOT-analysis (strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities, threats), PESTEC (political,
economic, social, technological, environmental/ecological,
customers/cultural), etc.
Scenarios: alternative futures (e.g. Shell)
Scenario approach: the development of what a company can
and want to be in these environments and finally formulating
the strategy of company in the way the information provided
by scenarios is taken into account. (Meristö in Hiltunen 2010)
Futures mapping: description of the present stage,
considering the shared vision, indentifying megatrends,
identifying weak signals, making sceranios, preparing action
strategies for scenarios, planning accions for near future.
Megatrends
Weak signals
31. Villit kortit
Tapahtuma, joka tapahtuu nopeasti ja jolla
on laaja-alaiset vaikutukset. (Hiltunen
2012)
Mustat joutsenet (Taleb), strategiset
yllätykset (Ansoff), odottamattomat
tapahtumat (Lindkvist)
Luonnon ja ihmisen aikaansaamat
Esim. WTC 2001, Eyjafjallajökull-tulivuoren
purkaus 2010…
32. WEAK SIGNAL
A weak signal is something strange, new,
amazing, crazy that exist today and might
foretell about forthcoming changes - or
then not. (Hiltunen)
Weak signals are warnings (external of
internal), events and developments that are
still too incomplete to permit an accurate
estimation of their impact and/or to
determine their complete responses.
(Ansoff)
34. A weak signal test
1. Makes your colleguages to laugh
2. Your collaguages are opposing it: no way, it
will never happen
3. Makes people to wonder
4. No one has heard about it before
5. It is wanted that no-one talks about it
anymore (a tabu)
1-5 ticks and it IS a weak signal!
(Hiltunen 2010)
35. Where Can You Find
Weak Signals?
Surfing in the Internet
Blogs, blogs, blogs
Keeping your eyes and ears open
(Hiltunen 2010)
Hiltunen’s list of sources of weak signals:
http://www.future.vuodatus.net/page/lahteita
36. Futurists’ best sources
for weak signals
1. Scientists/researchers
2. Futurists
3. Colleagues
4. Academic and scientific journals
5. Reports of research institutes
6. Consultants in areas other than futures
7. Popular science and economic magazines
8. Television/radio
9. Educational and scientific books
10. Internet: companies’ or organizations’ web
pages
11. Ordinary people (e.g. observing them)
12. Media people
13. Internet: electronic journals
14. Internet: homepages of individual
people/consultants
15. Email newsletters
16. Science fiction movies, books etc.
17. Government and other public sector reports
18. Internet: discussion groups
19. Internet: Blogs
20. Marginal/underground press
21. Periodicals
22. Local newspapers
23. Internet: electronic databases
24. Govenment officials
25. Email lists
26. Movies
27. Artists
28. Market research studies
29. Politicians
30. Annual reports of companies
31. Family/friends
32. Patents
33. Doctoral dissertations
34. Proposals for laws
35. Other source?
36. Art exhibitions
(Hiltunen 2010)
49. Delfoi-prosessi (delphi method)
Aiheen valinta ja tarkennus
Asiantuntijoiden valinta ja mahdolliset esihaastattelut
Kysymysten kirjaaminen (esihaastattelujen pohjalta)
Asiantuntijat vastaavat kysymyksiin anonyymisti (kierros 1)
Vastausten analysointi ja kysymysten uudelleen muokkaus
Asiantuntijat vastaavat kysymyksiin (kierros 2)
Tarpeen tullen vaiheiden 5-6 toistaminen
Tulosten analysointi ja raportointi
(Hiltunen 2012)
52. Usefull sources
Ahola, E. & Palkamo, A. (eds.) 2009. Megatrendit ja me. Tekesin katsaus
255/2009.
Cornish, E. 2004. Futuring: The Exploration of the Future. World Future
Society. Betsheda.
Hiltunen, E. 2012. Matkaopas tulevaisuuteen. Talentum.
Hiltunen, E. 2010. Weak signals in Organizational Futures Learning.
Academic dissertation. Helsinki School of Economics.
Rantala, O. 2006. Talouden seuranta ja ennustaminen. In Nikinmaa, T. &
Vartia, P. (eds.) Luotettavaa tietoa taloudesta. ETLA 60 vuotta.
Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitos. 113-126.
Wilenius, M. 2008. Taming the dragon: how to tackle the challenge of future
foresight. Business Strategy Series, 9 (2), 65-77.