Rural Electrification Models and Costs
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This session is part of the Clean Energy Regulators Initiative Webinar Programme. Theme 9 - Energy Access Module 2: Rural Electrification Models and Costs The economics of rural electrification has dramatically changed in the last few years. Fuel prices remain volatile and the technology has improved. In the past, the only economically viable options were grid extension and diesel generators. Now there is a wide range of renewable and hybrid options that are not only technically mature and reliable, but also cost-effective. This webinar will use results from NREL’s HOMER® modeling software to illustrate the conditions under which different electrification models are most appropriate. In addition to diesel generators and grid extension, the webinar will discuss business models distributing individual systems, such as solar home systems and solar lanterns. The main focus will be on hybrid renewable mini-grids that can range from a few kWs to tens of MWs. It will compare the economics of solar and wind and the impact of different penetrations rates.
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Rural Electrification Models and Costs
- 1. Optimizing Clean Power Everywhere 1790 30th St, Suite 100, Boulder, Colorado 80301, USA http://www.homerenergy.com ● +1-720-565-4046 Rural Electrification Models and Costs Dr. Peter Lilienthal peter@homerenergy.com
- 2. Too Many Choices Hydro Geothermal Demand Response Smart grids Micro-grids http://www.homerenergy.com
- 3. What is best? • Depends on the application –Resources –Loads –Equipment prices –Equipment performance • A confused mind says “No!” • HOMER fits the pieces together http://www.homerenergy.com
- 4. Modeling Challenge • Solar and wind are variable – Chronology is important – Needs integration with dispatchable resources • Smaller projects need simpler tools http://www.homerenergy.com
- 5. HOMER • Industry standard for hybrid micro-grids – Conventional resources – Renewable resources – Storage – Load Management http://www.homerenergy.com
- 6. HOMER • NREL: 1992-2009 • Original developers now at HOMER Energy • 122,000+ users in 193 countries 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000 New users per month http://www.homerenergy.com
- 7. HOMER Analysis Layers • Simulation – Accurate analysis of time varying loads and resources require an hour- by-hour analysis for entire year • Optimization – Find the least cost solution • Sensitivity Analysis – The data is never “good enough”. – What if….? Simulation Optimization Sensitivity Analysis Energy Balance http://www.homerenergy.com
- 8. HOMER bridges different worlds Renewable Advocates Utility Operators HOMER Model Power Engineers Financiers HOMER as a communication tool http://www.homerenergy.com
- 9. Flexible Data Requirements • Rough estimated inputs for general analysis – Annual averages for resources and loads – Cost per kW or unit for equipment • Detailed inputs for system design – Measured hourly data – Detailed cost curves – Create your own wind turbine, battery, fuels http://www.homerenergy.com
- 10. Answers from HOMER • Optimal System Design • Cost Breakdowns and Comparisons • Resource Analysis • Technology Development Targets • Policy Analysis • Operational Analysis http://www.homerenergy.com
- 11. Policy Analysis • Cost of emission constraints 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 LevelizedCostofEnergy($/kWh) Levelized Cost of Energy vs. Max. CO2 Emissions Max. CO2 Emissions (kg/yr) http://www.homerenergy.com
- 12. Operational Analysis • When is backup power needed? Jul 10 Jul 11 -5 0 5 Power(kW) AC Primary Load PV Pow er Diesel Pow er Battery Pow er http://www.homerenergy.com
- 13. Rural Electrification Models and Costs • Individual Systems – Solar Lanterns – Solar Home Systems – Renewable Power for Micro-enterprise • Microgrids – Part-time diesels – Small 100% renewable systems – Fully integrated hybrid systems http://www.homerenergy.com
- 14. Paths to Full Electrification http://www.homerenergy.com Kerosene & Batteries Individual solar systems Part-time diesels Fully integrated hybrids
- 15. Part-time Diesels • Low capital cost – Popular with funders • High fuel costs – Questionable sustainability • Poor part-load efficiency – Without batteries, only supply evening power – Little economic development potential • Little incentive for energy efficiency http://www.homerenergy.com
- 16. Individual Solar Systems • Simple, typically DC • Have become inexpensive • Can provide 24 hour power • Without backup genset – Only supply limited quantities – Battery management is the challenge • Temptation to over-discharge • Difficult to equalize battery cells http://www.homerenergy.com
- 17. Fully integrated Hybrids • 24 hour AC power – Often better than the central grid • Batteries for off-peak loads • Diesel for peak loads • Solar to minimize diesel usage • Basically a mini-utility – Metering, tariff collection, admin. challenges – Pre-pay meters http://www.homerenergy.com
- 18. When is grid extension better? http://www.homerenergy.com
- 19. Hybrid Design Tradeoff More Diesel More Storage Solar Home Systems Multi-megawatt scale systems Small Systems Large Systems High Penetration Low – Med. Penetration http://www.homerenergy.com
- 20. Size Makes a Difference • Battery based systems – < 1 kW, no backup genset – 1-100 kW, single genset, infrequently used • Diesel based systems: > 100 kW – Multiple gensets should be optimized – Role of batteries evolving rapidly • Stabilization • Spinning reserve • Diesel off during off-peak hours http://www.homerenergy.com
- 21. For small systems, PV is cost-effective, almost everywhere. http://www.homerenergy.com PV is cost-effective Not cost-effective
- 22. Community Systems with Optimized Diesel http://www.homerenergy.com PV is cost-effective Not cost-effective
- 23. HOMER’s Economic Outputs http://www.homerenergy.com Community System in Southern Africa
- 24. Diesel grid parity $0,00 $0,10 $0,20 $0,30 $0,40 $0,50 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 CostofPower($/kWh) PV Diesel http://www.homerenergy.com
- 25. Different Definitions of Penetration • Instantaneous Penetration – High winds in the middle of the night – Most useful measure for integration analysis • Factor of five difference from energy metric From: High Penetrations of Renewable Energy for Island Grids in Lilienthal, Power Engineering, November, 2007 http://www.homerenergy.com
- 26. Levels of renewable regimes • More renewables requires: • More intelligent controls • Storage, electric or thermal • Load management Low No Special Controls Medium Control excess renewables High Re-dispatch diesels Very high Operate diesel off St. Paul, Alaska http://www.homerenergy.com
- 27. Penetration Analysis from HOMER http://www.homerenergy.com
- 28. Lessons from the Remote Market • What to do when the wind blows too strongly – Secondary loads • What to do when it stops too abruptly – Load management as “spinning” reserve • What to do with storage – Not just for load shifting – Small grids need stabilization – Technology is changing rapidly http://www.homerenergy.com
- 29. Clean Power Evolution • Large utilities – Security obstacles – Regulatory obstacles • Smaller systems – Liquid fuels from oil – High renewable penetrations Micro-grids with distributed controls for reliability and efficiency http://www.homerenergy.com
- 30. Military Bases Developing Country On- Grid Forward Operating Bases Developing Country Off- Grid Fuel Savings Reduced Emission s Renewable Energy & Electric Vehicle Grid Integration Campuses without CHPEcotourism Campuses with CHP Islands Mines Emergency Services Reliability Microgrid Value Proposition http://www.homerenergy.com
- 31. Conclusions • Too many choices • Doing nothing is the worst choice • Fully integrated hybrids provide high quality power • Storage technology and costs are improving rapidly – Still requires careful analysis http://www.homerenergy.com