An introductory lecture on risk-based adaptation and why it is used in the Adapting to Climate Change in China project. http://www.ccadaptation.org.cn/

1. Risk-based Adaptation

2. IPCC Framing Risk and Vulnerabilities

3. Risk-based Approach
Considers the risks, (climate change and other risk drivers of change e.g.socio-
economic, environmental, demographic, technological, etc.) to the natural or
human system that have been identified as priority areas of concern. ,–
A Risk –based approach identifies the important risk factors and considers the
uncertainty associated with each;
and provides a basis for identifying a broad range of adaptation options to
address the identified risks; and
Assesses the adaptation
options relative to
identified objectives 1 and
success criteria 2, and on
considering the risks and
opportunities (potential
synergies) associated with
their implementation

4. Advantages
• Consistent with effective decision-making practices in IM/China – improved
management of risks and supporting socio-economic development and
growth
• Recognises and integrates uncertainty – changes in climate, impacts,
vulnerability and adaptation options and their implementation
• Allows for different and evolving knowledge and data – review towards
continuous improving
• Structured framing that
can promote good
decision-making
• Evidence-based
providing the basis for
effective
communication of
decisions and informing
subsequent planning
cycles

5. Advantages
• Supports review and evaluation of progress – establishing a monitoring
and evaluation programme, supported by objectives and success criteria
• Supports identification and prioritisation of research, data generation and
knowledge gaps
• Supports consultation –
transparent information
based on credible and
tractable evidence

6. Challenges
Data and information to support the approach
• Understanding what data and information are available and how it can
support the process – qualitative and quantitative
Knowledge sharing and dialogue are critical – engagement
Adopting a learning and
continuous improvement
approach to adaptation
planning (consistent with the
5-year planning process); and
Communicating that approach
to gain the support of those
needed to implement and to
be involved in subsequent
planning cycles

7. Adaptation Plans
International Examples

8. Plan Structure
Scope – understanding the consequences of a changing climate;
adaptation actions, including skills, tools and specific actions
Reference to timescale for when action needed
• Short-term (next 5-10 years)
• Medium-term (next 10-25 years)
• Long-term (next 30-40 years)
Actions normally are identified with reference to an agreed set of
principles
• Actions informed by monitoring and evaluation
• Actions integrated into existing development and implementation
practices
• Actions at the appropriate scale
• Actions developed in partnership with interested parties and should
avoid restricting actions by others
• Actions should build broader resilience and consider potential links
(conflicts and synergies) with other objectives (e.g., mitigation)

9. Adaptation Planning at Different Levels
Adaptation plans can and do exist a different levels (e.g., national,
provincial/autonomous region and cities), and at the sector level
Although adaptation is delivered local
• Dependent on actions at other scales
• Local action can have cascading
consequences at higher spatial scales
with implications being felt immediately
or years later
• Mal-adaptation is possible and likely if ill-
informed, signals are not present or
contradictive or done in isolation
The nature and scope of these plans reflect the specific circumstances (including
capacity and maturity of adaptation planning and context
There are similarities in their structure: vision, context, challenges, drivers of
change, key impacts and actions
Purposes and roles at different levels reflect responsibilities and capacity to act

10. Adaptation Planning at Different Levels
National adaptation planning
• Focus on coordination and enabling actions, including those required for
adaptation action at the subnational and local levels of government (and
the private sector)
– Provision of information, policy frameworks to guide decisions, to enable and
promote action in sectors and resources for national development, protect
vulnerable groups and provide and facilitate coordination of budgets and
financial mechanisms
– Actions for national government ministries/departments – national policy,
procurement
Subnational (provincial/autonomous region) adaptation planning
• Complementary role to that at the national level
• More strongly reflects the specific context, including subnational
priorities and a focus on adaptation actions in the context of specific
socio-economic and environmental priorities and needs
Sector planning
• Focus is on adaptation and resilience of sector as a system rather than a
political geographic area
• Draws from (and can influence) the national and subnational adaptation
plans, as well as plans at the local level

11. Example: Subnational Level
Purpose – clear statement of the purpose, vision and intention of the
plan
Challenges addressed (scope) – priority areas for action and
government commitments
Reasons for concern – expected changes in climate and implications
for the priority areas
Framework for planning – decision-making principles and roles and
responsibilities
Strategic directions for managing key risks – strategies for future
action across government and for engaging others (e.g., local
government, businesses, industry and communities)
Actions for managing key risks – actions to be taken throughout the
subnational region and in key sectors
Next steps – implementation, reviewing actions and plan renewal

12. Example: Sector Adaptation
Description of the sector – what is covered and the links
to other sectors
Challenges – those that the sector are facing such as the
nature of the sector and operational challenges
Key policies and drivers – identify opportunities and
challenges these provide for action
Impacts of climate change – identify threats and
opportunities as a result of current climate and projected
changes
Actions – identify the action, whose responsible for
delivery, timescales and the specifics of the deliverable

13. Challenges
Planning
• Need for integrated land-use and whole system planning
• Balancing competing demands within and across plans
Finance
• Increasing resilience can be costly and need to look at other
options (co-benefits and synergistic in terms of meeting
other socio-economic goals)
Competing demand for land
• Other demands for development and flood and drought
protection, mitigation, biodiversity and soil conservation
Soil management
• Water logging, erosion and soil management practices not
consistent with existing and projected climate

14. Policies and Drivers
National climate change adaptation strategy and plan
• Relevant elements within the national adaptation strategy and plan
Land use policies
• Existing land-use policies and there expected developments
Rural land use study and requirement for a land use strategy
• Study to provide integrated evidence base on the potential
contributions of Scotland’s rural land to delivering sustainable
economic growth and addressing other societal challenges
• Need for a sustainable land-use strategy
Related policies
• Waste plan – affecting location, choice and design of related
infrastructure

15. Impacts of Climate Change
Increased flooding, coastal erosion, warmer temperatures and changes
in precipitation intensity and timing
• Wide ranging impacts on land and how it is and can be used
• Direct impacts – erosion of soils, increase in incidents of land
instability and landslips, loss of organic matter and changes in
patterns of nutrient recycling
• Competition for land and increase tensions between land use
objectives
• Changes in land management practices
• Implications for biodiversity, risk of damage and loss of cultural
heritage sites
• Implications for infrastructure will impact on where future
developments can occur
• Implications for meeting mitigation targets (e.g., potential release
of carbon through changing land use

16. Relevance of this Structure for NX
Considering this type of structure:
• Description of area/sector of interest
• Challenges
• Key policies and drivers
• Impacts of climate change (current and future)
• Actions
From your perspectives, what are the:
• Strengths of this structure?
• Weaknesses of this structure?
• Gaps that would need to be reflected in the plan?