Climate change poses a serious threat to sustainable development in the Caribbean according to observations and projections. The IPCC reports unequivocal warming globally and in the Caribbean, with increasing temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and rising sea levels. This will have severe consequences for economic activities like tourism and agriculture, infrastructure, livelihoods, and achievement of development goals. Urgent global cooperation is needed to mitigate and help countries adapt to climate change impacts like more intense hurricanes and droughts. The costs of inaction are very high.

1. Climate ChangeClimate Change
&
The CaribbeanThe Caribbean
- An OverviewAn Overview
Dr. John Charlery – University of the West Indies
john charlery@cavehill uwi edujohn.charlery@cavehill.uwi.edu

2. Question…
Does Climate Change pose a threat to
future sustainable development in the
Caribbean?Caribbean?

3. Key Observations from the IPCC’s AR4Key Observations from the IPCC s AR4
Temperature trend from actual observations:p
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal."
Changing rainfall patterns:
Increases of both drought and heavy precipitation
tevents.
S l l iSea level rise:
Sea level rose at an average rate of about 1.8 mm/year
during the years 1961-2003. The rise in sea level duringg y g
1993-2003 was at an average rate of 3.1 mm/year.

4. Key Observations from the IPCC’s AR4Key Observations from the IPCC s AR4
Hurricane Activities
There has been an increase in hurricane intensity in the
North Atlantic since the 1970s, and that increaseNorth Atlantic since the 1970s, and that increase
correlates with increases in sea surface temperature.
Th b d i i h i i t it i lThe observed increase in hurricane intensity is larger
than climate models predict for the sea surface
temperature changes we have experienced.
Cause
Unmistakable evidence that the earth’s temperature is
rising and attributable to anthropogenic activities –
Green House GasesGreen House Gases

5. Direct Regional EvidenceDirect Regional Evidence
• Temperature trend BARBADOS TRINIDAD0 6
0.8
1 0
1.5
Trinidad
– Records have shown an
increase in the last century,
with the 1990s being the -0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
Barbados
Trinidad
g
warmest decade of the
20th century.
SAINT LUCIA
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-1.5
-1.0
0 8
1.0 1.0
– 1998 also appears as the
warmest year on record.
SAINT LUCIA
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
973
976
979
982
985
988
991
994
997
2000
1 5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
Saint Lucia
• Rainfall trend
– Records have shown Period: 1973 to 2000
DOMINICA
Period: 1973 to 2000
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
Dominica
changing patterns.
– Floods in some areas and
Variations of air temperature in the
Eastern Caribbean
oods so e a eas a d
droughts in other areas

6. Th Gl b l Cli t P j tiThe Global Climate Projections
P j t d t d th h 2100 (AR4)Projected trends through 2100 (AR4)
rise in global temperatures of between 2 – 4.5oC
Sea level rise of between 11 - 77 cm
Changed weather patternsChanged weather patterns
More intense weather extremes – drought, floods
M i h iMore intense hurricanes

7. Future Projected % Changes In Precipitationj g p

8. Model Projection Of Future Increases In Thej
Regional Temperatures

9. E t T t h th E CExtreme Temperature change over the E.C.
Tropical Days ( Days MaxTemp ≥ 30º Celsius)Tropical Days ( Days MaxTemp ≥ 30 Celsius)
Present FuturePresent Future

10. Extreme Temperature change over the E CExtreme Temperature change over the E.C.
Very Hot Days ( Days MaxTemp ≥ 35º Celsius)Very Hot Days ( Days MaxTemp ≥ 35 Celsius)
Present FuturePresent Future

11. Caribbean Sea Temperature Much WarmerCaribbean Sea Temperature Much Warmer
• Warmer sea temperatures• Warmer sea temperatures
support:
– Development of stronger
hurricanes at lower latitudes
– More rapid transition to
category 4 and 5
– Increases the likelihood of
coral bleaching
April sea temperature near
80oF/27oC

12. Consequences Of Climate Change.Consequences Of Climate Change.
Change in rainfall regimes
• adverse effect on agriculture
Decrease in precipitationDecrease in precipitation
• less available water
I i t tIncrease in temperatures
• increased evaporation
• increased evapo-transpiration (soil moisture)increased evapo-transpiration (soil moisture)
• implications for:
Agriculture
Health
Coral reefs
Increase in extreme events – droughts, floods

13. Consequences Of Climate Change.Consequences Of Climate Change.
Increased sea level rise
salt water intrusion
coastal inundation
/ i ibeach/coastline erosion
storm surge exaggeration
Increased intensity of heavy rain events
rapid run off
flash floods
accelerated soil erosion
l t d ff f t i taccelerated run off of contaminants
Adverse effects on coastal water

14. Consequences Of Climate Change.Consequences Of Climate Change.
Greater intensity of hurricanes
Implications for:
human settlements
itourism
infrastructure
livelihoodslivelihoods

15. IMPACTSIMPACTS
Dire consequences for:q
Economic activities
• Tourism
• Agriculture
• Financial sector
Property and infrastructure
Human welfare
Livelihoods
Regional natural resource baseg
Attainment of MDGs in prescribed time frame.
Realization of sustainable development goals.p g

16. Warmer Sea Temperatures Result In Coral
Bl hi A d M liBleaching And Mortality
• In 1998 coral reefs around the world suffered the mostIn 1998 coral reefs around the world suffered the most
extensive and severe bleaching and subsequent mortality in
modern record.
• In the same year, tropical sea surface temperatures were
the highest in modern record, topping off a fifty year trend
for some tropical oceans.for some tropical oceans.
• The repercussions of the 1998 mass bleaching and
mortality events will continue to be far reaching in time
and space.

17. Impact of 1oC Further Rise In Sea Temperature
On The Dolphin Fish
Dolphin fish Habitat becomes lessDolphin fish Habitat becomes less
favourable
+1+1°°CC

18. Likely Impact of a 2oC rise on AgricultureLikely Impact of a 2oC rise on Agriculture
Preliminary studies on the impact on the staples -corn,
beans and rice for 2oC warmer and +/- 20% change in
precipitation
Crop Scenario
Name
Season
Length
(days)
Temperature
Change (o
C)
% Change
in
precipitation
Yield
(kg/ha)
% change
in Yield
(days) precipitation
Dry beans
C3
Baseline
Carib A
87
85
85
0
+2
+2
0
+20
-20
1353.6
1163.7
1092.6
-14%
-19%
Rice Baseline 124 0 0 3355 5Rice
C3
Baseline
Carib A
124
113
113
0
+2
+2
0
+20
-20
3355.5
3014.4
2887.5
-10%
-14%
Maize
C4
Baseline
C ib A
104
97
0
2
0
20
4510.6
3736 6 22%C4 Carib A 97
97
+2
+2
+20
-20
3736.6
3759.4
-22%
-17%

19. Hurricane Ivan over Grenada

21. 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Tropical Storm Arthur caused the season to start twop
days early. – 9 deaths, US$78M damage in Belize.
Third most costly season on record, behind only the
2004 and 2005 seasons with up to $45 billion in2004 and 2005 seasons, with up to $45 billion in
damage.
The only year on record in which a major hurricane
existed in every month from July through November in
the North Atlantic.

22. 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Particularly devastating for Haiti, where over 800 peopley g , p p
were killed by four consecutive tropical cyclones (Fay,
Gustav, Hanna, and Ike) in August and September., , ) g p

23. Insured LossesInsured Losses
Estimated Estimated 1990 Insured Losses
Storm Class Year 1990
Insured
Losses
if Maximum Wind Speed Increases
by
Losses
(000’s)
5% 10% 15%
Hugo 4 1989 $3,658,887 $4,902,705
34%
$6,514,172
78%
$8,542,428
133%
Ali i 3 1983 $2 435 589 $3 382 775 $4 312 884 $5 685 853Alicia 3 1983 $2,435,589 $3,382,775
39%
$4,312,884
77%
$5,685,853
133%
Camille 5 1969 $3 086 201 $4 120 733 $5 438 332 $7 095 008Camille 5 1969 $3,086,201 $4,120,733
34%
$5,438,332
76%
$7,095,008
130%
Source: Clark, 1997.

24. Sea Level Rise & Storm Surge
Coastal Impact of Storm Surge and Wave
Action under a Sea Level Rise Scenario
1997 2020
Wave Action
MSL 1997 MSL 1997
Storm Surge
Wave Action
Storm Surge MSL 2020
MSL 1997 MSL 1997
Response Strategies:Response Strategies:
• Retreat
• Accommodation
• Protection

25. One Of Many Flood Events In Georgetown, Guyanay g , y

26. STERN REPORTSTERN REPORT
Climate change presents very serious global risks andClimate change presents very serious global risks and
demands an urgent global response.
Response demands international cooperation notably in
the following areas:g
Creating price signals and markets for Carbon.
Spurring technological research development andSpurring technological research, development and
deployment.
Promoting adaptation particularly for developingPromoting adaptation particularly for developing
countries

27. STERN REPORTSTERN REPORT
E id h th t i i li t h illEvidence shows that ignoring climate change will
eventually damage economic growth.
Our actions over the coming few decades could
create risks of major disruption to economic andcreate risks of major disruption to economic and
social activity later this century and the next, on a
scale similar to the great wars and the economicscale similar to the great wars and the economic
depression of the 1st half of the 20th century.
The earlier effective action is taken, the less costly it
will bewill be.

28. Costs Of No Action: % GDPCosts Of No Action: % GDP
C t 2050 2100Country 2050 2100
Haiti 61 123Haiti 61 123
Grenada 46 111
St. Kitts & Nevis 36 89
iPuerto Rico 2.8 6
Source: © EcoAméricas - http://www ecoamericas com/Source: © EcoAméricas - http://www.ecoamericas.com/

29. Energy – Caribbean ContextEnergy Caribbean Context
All CARICOM countries except T&T are net energy
iimporters.
Regional scenario of limited resources and very large
cost of energy are putting a severe drain on limited
financial resources
116 Mb in 1985 costing US $ 530 m
160 Mb in 2004 costing US $6.5 B
At 2008 prices, US $15b
i i i t i t d t– in some cases requiring countries to devote
50% of foreign exchange earnings to purchase
fuelfuel

30. Energy – Caribbean ContextEnergy Caribbean Context
Region’s economy is highly Carbon intensive and notg y g y
as competitive as it can be.
Heavy outflow of foreign exchange is required to
meet escalating energy billmeet escalating energy bill.
potential to reverse developmental gains achieved
over the last 2 3 decadesover the last 2-3 decades.
Endogenisation of regional energy sources coupledg g gy p
with effective demand and supply side management
practices regarded as essential part of region’sp g p g
adaptive strategy

31. Energy – Caribbean ContextEnergy Caribbean Context
With respect to Climate Change mitigation, the
region contributes a fraction of 1% to global GHG
budget.
However there is an opportunity to place the regional
energy sector on a more sustainable footing.

32. The CARICOM Climate Change Centreg
• Recognizing the vulnerability to the
impacts of climate change and climateimpacts of climate change and climate
variability on the economic
development and social needs of the
region:
– The Heads of Governments of
CARICOM in July 2002, endorsed
h i f ithe creation of a permanent capacity
in the region to address climate
change issues. Operational sinceOperational since
January 2004January 2004
– The Centre is mandated to
coordinate the regional response to
climate change and its efforts to
January 2004January 2004
Located inLocated in
B l B liB l B li
climate change and its efforts to
manage and adapt to its projected
impacts.
Belmopan, BelizeBelmopan, Belize
32