This document discusses resilience and vulnerability in smart urban systems from two perspectives: spatial economics and transport. It provides background on definitions of smart cities and outlines research questions around whether smart cities can evolve in complex and resilient ways. Key points covered include different definitions of resilience from engineering and ecological perspectives, the use of complex network and dynamic models to study resilience, and different interpretations of resilience in spatial economic studies.
Aspects of Urban resilience.
Presented as part of the Nature Addicts workshop, in the context of Eleusis Cultural Capital of Europe 2021 in Eleusis May 23, 2017
The document discusses the EPA's systems approach called Triple Value (3V) which provides an integrative framework for systems thinking. The 3V approach addresses sustainability and resilience issues in communities by understanding the interactions between economic, social, and environmental systems. EPA has applied the 3V approach successfully to pilot projects in different regions to identify unintended consequences of decisions and achieve sustainable solutions. The document provides an overview of the 3V framework and examples of its application to issues like nutrient pollution management.
Just as cities are hubs for innovations and investments that expand opportunities, they are also living laboratories forced to confront challenges of increasing complexity. What, and who, makes a city resilient—and not just livable in the short-term—has become an increasingly critical question, one we set out to answer in late 2012 with our partners at Arup through the creation of a City Resilience Index.
Shocks and stresses are growing in frequency, impact and scale, with the ability to ripple across systems
and geographies. But cities are largely unprepared to respond, withstand, and rebound when disaster
strikes. The greatest burden of these increasing shocks, such as the impacts of climate change or public
health threats, often falls on poor and vulnerable people who have limited resources to cope with disaster
and who take longer to recover from it, disrupting livelihoods and increasing inequality.
The document discusses the concept of "smart cities" and argues they have flawed thinking. While smart cities aim to use technology to make cities more efficient, connected, and enjoyable, they fail to address deeper issues. The document notes that past attempts at progress through increased efficiency, like during the industrial revolution, ultimately led to new global problems in the long run. It questions whether smart cities will exacerbate issues or create new problems by adding complex new layers without solving the root causes of the existing challenges faced by urban areas.
The City Resilience Framework provides a lens through which the complexity of cities and the drivers that contribute to a city’s resilience can be understood. The 12 capacities in the 100RC City Resilience Framework collectively determine its ability a city’s resilience to a wide range of shocks and stresses.
Culture plays an important role in sustainable development through various aspects. Different cultures have beliefs, practices, and knowledge that shape how people interact with nature and use environmental resources. Traditional ecological knowledge passed down over generations has often led to sustainable management of lands and resources. Cultural values, norms, and institutions also influence sustainability by governing resource use and access. For a sustainable future, it is important to understand and appreciate the diverse relationships between cultures and nature.
Aspects of Urban resilience.
Presented as part of the Nature Addicts workshop, in the context of Eleusis Cultural Capital of Europe 2021 in Eleusis May 23, 2017
The document discusses the EPA's systems approach called Triple Value (3V) which provides an integrative framework for systems thinking. The 3V approach addresses sustainability and resilience issues in communities by understanding the interactions between economic, social, and environmental systems. EPA has applied the 3V approach successfully to pilot projects in different regions to identify unintended consequences of decisions and achieve sustainable solutions. The document provides an overview of the 3V framework and examples of its application to issues like nutrient pollution management.
Just as cities are hubs for innovations and investments that expand opportunities, they are also living laboratories forced to confront challenges of increasing complexity. What, and who, makes a city resilient—and not just livable in the short-term—has become an increasingly critical question, one we set out to answer in late 2012 with our partners at Arup through the creation of a City Resilience Index.
Shocks and stresses are growing in frequency, impact and scale, with the ability to ripple across systems
and geographies. But cities are largely unprepared to respond, withstand, and rebound when disaster
strikes. The greatest burden of these increasing shocks, such as the impacts of climate change or public
health threats, often falls on poor and vulnerable people who have limited resources to cope with disaster
and who take longer to recover from it, disrupting livelihoods and increasing inequality.
The document discusses the concept of "smart cities" and argues they have flawed thinking. While smart cities aim to use technology to make cities more efficient, connected, and enjoyable, they fail to address deeper issues. The document notes that past attempts at progress through increased efficiency, like during the industrial revolution, ultimately led to new global problems in the long run. It questions whether smart cities will exacerbate issues or create new problems by adding complex new layers without solving the root causes of the existing challenges faced by urban areas.
The City Resilience Framework provides a lens through which the complexity of cities and the drivers that contribute to a city’s resilience can be understood. The 12 capacities in the 100RC City Resilience Framework collectively determine its ability a city’s resilience to a wide range of shocks and stresses.
Culture plays an important role in sustainable development through various aspects. Different cultures have beliefs, practices, and knowledge that shape how people interact with nature and use environmental resources. Traditional ecological knowledge passed down over generations has often led to sustainable management of lands and resources. Cultural values, norms, and institutions also influence sustainability by governing resource use and access. For a sustainable future, it is important to understand and appreciate the diverse relationships between cultures and nature.
This document discusses how architects are increasingly focusing on issues of social justice and inclusion in their work. It argues that to adequately address climate change, architecture needs to engage both locally and globally. The document examines the concept of "insurgent citizenship" and alternative practices by marginalized groups. It suggests that to respond to climate change, architects need a reflexive approach that accounts for its complex multiscalar impacts and involves diverse actors across levels of governance. Architects should draw from both ethnographic understanding of local contexts and transformative visions that avoid the failures of past utopian plans.
Presentation defines Sustainability, Sustainability Management, and presents some basic tools the Sustainability Professional can use to design and implement a Sustainability strategy.
The document discusses frameworks for sustainable development. It addresses economic, social, environmental, and governance issues. Specifically, it examines three areas of focus: natural resource governance, urbanization and urban governance, and environmental governance. It emphasizes that democratic governance with inclusive institutions is indispensable for sustainable development by allowing for debate, accommodation of conflicting interests, and social consensus building. Key elements discussed include programmatic politics, evidence-based policymaking, and commitment to human development outcomes.
The promise and pitfalls of new sustainable communitiesarmandogo92
This document analyzes 29 award-winning new community developments marketed as sustainable or smart growth. It finds that while developers emphasize features that increase attractiveness to buyers, they do not always incorporate a full range of attributes to enhance environmental and socio-economic sustainability. This suggests the importance of uniform sustainability rating systems to provide comprehensive evaluations. The complexities of designing, building, and assessing sustainable communities are also highlighted.
The document discusses factors that contribute to intelligent, sustainable, and livable cities. It covers the following key points in 3 sentences:
Letchworth Garden City in the UK and the work of planners Ebenezer Howard and Patrick Geddes are discussed as early examples of planned communities that integrated urban and rural amenities. Modern examples like Masdar City aim to be carbon and waste neutral through traditional design and advanced technologies. As urban populations grow rapidly, challenges include traffic, pollution, inequality and ensuring prosperity for future generations through sustainable planning of large cities and regions.
This paper describes how communities can contribute to the sustainability cause
1. Communities, communication and sustainability: what’s the purpose of this paper?
2. Online communities, why are they relevant?
3. How to communicate to achieve political goals?
4. What can politics learn from commercial communication?
5. What’s the proposed solution?
ASSE - The Sustainability Professional, Taking EHS To The Next LevelHector Rodriguez
The document discusses sustainability and sustainability management. It defines sustainability as managing the impacts of human activity on vital capital stocks to ensure human well-being. Sustainability management involves studying and managing organizational impacts on environmental, economic, and social capital wherever it operates. The document argues that environmental, health, and safety professionals are well-positioned to take responsibility for developing and implementing sustainability strategies due to their experience managing capital impacts, which could enhance their careers and performance.
The document provides an executive summary of Tulsa's initial findings report from its participation in the 100 Resilient Cities program. Key activities included compiling an inventory of 68 current city actions, identifying 534 stakeholders across sectors, conducting a community survey of 557 residents within a 60 mile radius of downtown Tulsa, and holding roundtable discussions. Preliminary priority areas identified from these initiatives are mobility and transit, social stability and justice, and public health. The report establishes a foundation for developing Tulsa's resilience strategy in 2017.
The 2015 Catchment Based Approach Conference was held on June 8th at Fishmonger's Hall in London. The focus of the day was the sharing of best practice between partnerships. Nick Paling from the Westcountry Rivers Trust gave a presentation entitled, 'Ecosystem Service benefits in the Urban Environment: Developing a common framework for delivery & communication' as part of the 'Delivery in the Urban Environment' session.
The document discusses the concept of urban resilience from the perspective of Irma Wilson.
Urban resilience is defined as the ability of a city to adapt to sudden or gradual changes in circumstances from structural, systemic, and cultural standpoints. It involves promoting resilience in areas like food, water, energy, transportation, communication, production, and education.
Irma Wilson argues that we must promote urban resilience not just in cities but also in rural and semi-urban areas. Beyond just promoting resilience, we should build experiential spaces to transition to a thriving world. The most adaptive cities and systems will survive, not just the strongest. Applying resilience involves retrofitting existing cities, redefining land use
This document discusses the role of "greening" or environmental stewardship activities in building resilience after disasters or conflicts. It provides examples of how tree planting, memorial gardens, and fisheries management helped communities recover from events like 9/11 and wars in Iraq. The document argues that including local communities in greening activities can help social-ecological systems withstand disturbances by providing feedback and strengthening connections between people and nature. Policymakers are encouraged to support such efforts through funding, research, and integrating greening into emergency response plans to facilitate long-term adaptation to climate change impacts.
This document discusses sustainability from multiple perspectives. It begins by defining sustainability as the ability to continue a behavior indefinitely. It then presents four scenarios related to sustainability: (1) individual actions like raising independent children; (2) social projects around issues like rare diseases; (3) creating a sustainability model for the Amazon forest that balances various stakeholders; and (4) a cultural perspective about creating a culture capable of sustainability solutions. The document emphasizes that sustainability requires creative, multi-disciplinary solutions that consider environmental, economic, and social dimensions.
1) The document discusses the need for a new "land ethical" approach to city design that focuses on environmental sustainability, social justice, and economic prosperity over the long term.
2) It contrasts the post-World War II suburban development model of William Levitt with the "land ethic" philosophy of Aldo Leopold, arguing Leopold's approach should instead guide modern city planning.
3) The land ethic values preserving the integrity of natural systems and considers human communities as integral parts of the larger biotic community.
The document discusses sustainable transport and development. It defines sustainability as meeting present needs without compromising future generations' ability to meet their own needs. Sustainable transport considers environmental, economic, and social impacts. Freight transport is important but road freight causes negative environmental and social impacts. Sustainable freight aims to balance efficient logistics with sustainable development. Spatial planning can help bridge economic development and environmental protection to achieve sustainable urban development.
The document discusses approaches to environmental services research in the CGIAR. It begins by noting the importance of environmental services for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals related to ending poverty and hunger. It then examines where environmental services fit within the CGIAR's Strategic Results Framework. The document presents a conceptual framework for analyzing the interactions between people, their land use decisions, and resulting environmental consequences. It discusses various options for addressing negative environmental externalities, including payments for environmental services. Finally, it argues that creating shared identities and moral standards can help internalize externalities of land use decisions.
Isabelle Anguelovski, UAB-ICTA Urban dimensions of environmental and spatial ...environmentalconflicts
The document discusses traditional understandings of environmental injustice, which focus on disproportionate exposure of poor and minority groups to environmental hazards. It notes that environmental justice movements have demanded environmental equality. However, the document argues that there are missing pieces in traditional environmental justice frameworks, including a broader conception of livability, the role of place attachment and identity in community initiatives, and how political contexts shape neighborhood strategies for environmental revitalization.
The document discusses challenges with building urban climate change resilience in inclusive ways. It notes that resilience efforts often overlook issues of power and politics. True resilience must benefit the most vulnerable and have pro-poor outcomes. Mainstreaming resilience can overlook rapid urbanization drivers like private sector expansion that weaken governance. Research must engage more with political economies and the forces shaping urban planning outcomes. Making impact requires addressing knowledge and power imbalances.
Environmental implications of Kuznet curveswtnspicyaqua
The document discusses the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. It begins by providing background on how environmental issues came to be more widely debated in the 1980s. This led to a shift from focusing on natural resource availability to the environment's ability to absorb waste. The Brundtland Report in 1987 embraced economic growth as a way to reduce poverty and environmental degradation. The relationship between economic growth and the environment then came under increased scrutiny. In the 1990s, the empirical literature on this link "exploded" as many studies tested the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. This hypothesis proposes that various indicators of environmental degradation initially increase with economic growth but then improve after a certain income threshold is reached, similar to Kuznets' original curve
Citizen science in disaster and conflict resilience esa 2010Keith G. Tidball
This document discusses how citizen science could help build resilience after disasters or conflicts. It provides examples of citizen science in post-disaster contexts, like monitoring after a coal ash spill, that helped increase accountability. The document hypothesizes that citizen science could reinforce positive feedback loops and build capacity by convening knowledge over large areas. However, more examples are needed of citizen science specifically in post-disaster or conflict recovery. The document concludes that citizen science has potential to build resilience through facilitating local knowledge and participation, initiating desirable feedbacks, and combining data over broad areas.
This document outlines UN-Habitat's new Urban Resilience Indexing Programme. The program aims to [1] develop tools and standards to measure and strengthen urban resilience, [2] create a framework to assess resilience across different urban systems, and [3] engage cities directly to build ownership. Key outputs will include indicators to evaluate resilience, global standards, and monitoring tools to help cities strengthen infrastructure and plan for future crises. The program sees urban resilience as critical for sustainable development and will work with city networks to build capacity and pilot initiatives in 10 cities.
This document discusses how architects are increasingly focusing on issues of social justice and inclusion in their work. It argues that to adequately address climate change, architecture needs to engage both locally and globally. The document examines the concept of "insurgent citizenship" and alternative practices by marginalized groups. It suggests that to respond to climate change, architects need a reflexive approach that accounts for its complex multiscalar impacts and involves diverse actors across levels of governance. Architects should draw from both ethnographic understanding of local contexts and transformative visions that avoid the failures of past utopian plans.
Presentation defines Sustainability, Sustainability Management, and presents some basic tools the Sustainability Professional can use to design and implement a Sustainability strategy.
The document discusses frameworks for sustainable development. It addresses economic, social, environmental, and governance issues. Specifically, it examines three areas of focus: natural resource governance, urbanization and urban governance, and environmental governance. It emphasizes that democratic governance with inclusive institutions is indispensable for sustainable development by allowing for debate, accommodation of conflicting interests, and social consensus building. Key elements discussed include programmatic politics, evidence-based policymaking, and commitment to human development outcomes.
The promise and pitfalls of new sustainable communitiesarmandogo92
This document analyzes 29 award-winning new community developments marketed as sustainable or smart growth. It finds that while developers emphasize features that increase attractiveness to buyers, they do not always incorporate a full range of attributes to enhance environmental and socio-economic sustainability. This suggests the importance of uniform sustainability rating systems to provide comprehensive evaluations. The complexities of designing, building, and assessing sustainable communities are also highlighted.
The document discusses factors that contribute to intelligent, sustainable, and livable cities. It covers the following key points in 3 sentences:
Letchworth Garden City in the UK and the work of planners Ebenezer Howard and Patrick Geddes are discussed as early examples of planned communities that integrated urban and rural amenities. Modern examples like Masdar City aim to be carbon and waste neutral through traditional design and advanced technologies. As urban populations grow rapidly, challenges include traffic, pollution, inequality and ensuring prosperity for future generations through sustainable planning of large cities and regions.
This paper describes how communities can contribute to the sustainability cause
1. Communities, communication and sustainability: what’s the purpose of this paper?
2. Online communities, why are they relevant?
3. How to communicate to achieve political goals?
4. What can politics learn from commercial communication?
5. What’s the proposed solution?
ASSE - The Sustainability Professional, Taking EHS To The Next LevelHector Rodriguez
The document discusses sustainability and sustainability management. It defines sustainability as managing the impacts of human activity on vital capital stocks to ensure human well-being. Sustainability management involves studying and managing organizational impacts on environmental, economic, and social capital wherever it operates. The document argues that environmental, health, and safety professionals are well-positioned to take responsibility for developing and implementing sustainability strategies due to their experience managing capital impacts, which could enhance their careers and performance.
The document provides an executive summary of Tulsa's initial findings report from its participation in the 100 Resilient Cities program. Key activities included compiling an inventory of 68 current city actions, identifying 534 stakeholders across sectors, conducting a community survey of 557 residents within a 60 mile radius of downtown Tulsa, and holding roundtable discussions. Preliminary priority areas identified from these initiatives are mobility and transit, social stability and justice, and public health. The report establishes a foundation for developing Tulsa's resilience strategy in 2017.
The 2015 Catchment Based Approach Conference was held on June 8th at Fishmonger's Hall in London. The focus of the day was the sharing of best practice between partnerships. Nick Paling from the Westcountry Rivers Trust gave a presentation entitled, 'Ecosystem Service benefits in the Urban Environment: Developing a common framework for delivery & communication' as part of the 'Delivery in the Urban Environment' session.
The document discusses the concept of urban resilience from the perspective of Irma Wilson.
Urban resilience is defined as the ability of a city to adapt to sudden or gradual changes in circumstances from structural, systemic, and cultural standpoints. It involves promoting resilience in areas like food, water, energy, transportation, communication, production, and education.
Irma Wilson argues that we must promote urban resilience not just in cities but also in rural and semi-urban areas. Beyond just promoting resilience, we should build experiential spaces to transition to a thriving world. The most adaptive cities and systems will survive, not just the strongest. Applying resilience involves retrofitting existing cities, redefining land use
This document discusses the role of "greening" or environmental stewardship activities in building resilience after disasters or conflicts. It provides examples of how tree planting, memorial gardens, and fisheries management helped communities recover from events like 9/11 and wars in Iraq. The document argues that including local communities in greening activities can help social-ecological systems withstand disturbances by providing feedback and strengthening connections between people and nature. Policymakers are encouraged to support such efforts through funding, research, and integrating greening into emergency response plans to facilitate long-term adaptation to climate change impacts.
This document discusses sustainability from multiple perspectives. It begins by defining sustainability as the ability to continue a behavior indefinitely. It then presents four scenarios related to sustainability: (1) individual actions like raising independent children; (2) social projects around issues like rare diseases; (3) creating a sustainability model for the Amazon forest that balances various stakeholders; and (4) a cultural perspective about creating a culture capable of sustainability solutions. The document emphasizes that sustainability requires creative, multi-disciplinary solutions that consider environmental, economic, and social dimensions.
1) The document discusses the need for a new "land ethical" approach to city design that focuses on environmental sustainability, social justice, and economic prosperity over the long term.
2) It contrasts the post-World War II suburban development model of William Levitt with the "land ethic" philosophy of Aldo Leopold, arguing Leopold's approach should instead guide modern city planning.
3) The land ethic values preserving the integrity of natural systems and considers human communities as integral parts of the larger biotic community.
The document discusses sustainable transport and development. It defines sustainability as meeting present needs without compromising future generations' ability to meet their own needs. Sustainable transport considers environmental, economic, and social impacts. Freight transport is important but road freight causes negative environmental and social impacts. Sustainable freight aims to balance efficient logistics with sustainable development. Spatial planning can help bridge economic development and environmental protection to achieve sustainable urban development.
The document discusses approaches to environmental services research in the CGIAR. It begins by noting the importance of environmental services for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals related to ending poverty and hunger. It then examines where environmental services fit within the CGIAR's Strategic Results Framework. The document presents a conceptual framework for analyzing the interactions between people, their land use decisions, and resulting environmental consequences. It discusses various options for addressing negative environmental externalities, including payments for environmental services. Finally, it argues that creating shared identities and moral standards can help internalize externalities of land use decisions.
Isabelle Anguelovski, UAB-ICTA Urban dimensions of environmental and spatial ...environmentalconflicts
The document discusses traditional understandings of environmental injustice, which focus on disproportionate exposure of poor and minority groups to environmental hazards. It notes that environmental justice movements have demanded environmental equality. However, the document argues that there are missing pieces in traditional environmental justice frameworks, including a broader conception of livability, the role of place attachment and identity in community initiatives, and how political contexts shape neighborhood strategies for environmental revitalization.
The document discusses challenges with building urban climate change resilience in inclusive ways. It notes that resilience efforts often overlook issues of power and politics. True resilience must benefit the most vulnerable and have pro-poor outcomes. Mainstreaming resilience can overlook rapid urbanization drivers like private sector expansion that weaken governance. Research must engage more with political economies and the forces shaping urban planning outcomes. Making impact requires addressing knowledge and power imbalances.
Environmental implications of Kuznet curveswtnspicyaqua
The document discusses the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. It begins by providing background on how environmental issues came to be more widely debated in the 1980s. This led to a shift from focusing on natural resource availability to the environment's ability to absorb waste. The Brundtland Report in 1987 embraced economic growth as a way to reduce poverty and environmental degradation. The relationship between economic growth and the environment then came under increased scrutiny. In the 1990s, the empirical literature on this link "exploded" as many studies tested the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. This hypothesis proposes that various indicators of environmental degradation initially increase with economic growth but then improve after a certain income threshold is reached, similar to Kuznets' original curve
Citizen science in disaster and conflict resilience esa 2010Keith G. Tidball
This document discusses how citizen science could help build resilience after disasters or conflicts. It provides examples of citizen science in post-disaster contexts, like monitoring after a coal ash spill, that helped increase accountability. The document hypothesizes that citizen science could reinforce positive feedback loops and build capacity by convening knowledge over large areas. However, more examples are needed of citizen science specifically in post-disaster or conflict recovery. The document concludes that citizen science has potential to build resilience through facilitating local knowledge and participation, initiating desirable feedbacks, and combining data over broad areas.
This document outlines UN-Habitat's new Urban Resilience Indexing Programme. The program aims to [1] develop tools and standards to measure and strengthen urban resilience, [2] create a framework to assess resilience across different urban systems, and [3] engage cities directly to build ownership. Key outputs will include indicators to evaluate resilience, global standards, and monitoring tools to help cities strengthen infrastructure and plan for future crises. The program sees urban resilience as critical for sustainable development and will work with city networks to build capacity and pilot initiatives in 10 cities.
URBAN LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT : a RESEARCH PROGRAM FOR SMART GOVERNMENT OF SMAR...Université Paris-Dauphine
This document outlines a research program for developing smart urban governance models. It proposes a three step approach: 1) Conduct a strategic analysis of city goals, functions, stakeholders. 2) Inventory "building blocks" like issues, resources, capabilities. 3) Integrate the building blocks into a smart city ecosystem model. The key is granting citizens equal control over the urban system while autonomously coordinating innovation. Data collection is critical to understand a city's evolution and improve social capital. The goal is developing resilient system architectures using standardized "Lego" blocks without utopian visions of perfect control.
Smart city, related to urban vitality and social capitalBNSP
1) Urban vitality is an essential precondition for socio-economic value capturing and social capital in smart cities. It derives from facilitating effective interactions between spatial, economic, and social urban systems through networks of flows and places.
2) Maintaining parallel networks of urban flows and places is important for urban vitality. This provides variation that supports socioeconomic encounters and a strong basis of social and economic support.
3) Understanding urban systems, including the hierarchies and connections between networks of flows and places ("stepping stones") that link urban anchor points, is key to facilitating urban vitality.
The document discusses rebuilding Kamaishi City after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in the context of Japan's shrinking and aging population. It describes how the disaster devastated East Kamaishi and left main issues of depopulation and elderly needs. The thesis aims to propose a successful socio-economic recovery for East Kamaishi through a compact urban development formed by small independent communities, using a place-based participatory planning process led by a community-based organization similar to machizukuri groups in Kobe. This approach combines the benefits of planning models like "Urban Islands" and "Smart Shrinking" analyzed in the document.
The document summarizes information about the city of Piacenza, Italy as the location for a proposed summer school project. It provides background on Piacenza's history dating back to Roman times, its population of over 100,000 which includes 17,165 foreign residents, and key infrastructure as an intersection of major highways. The document also includes maps showing Piacenza's urban development over time from its origins as a Roman city to the present day.
This document proposes a framework for defining resilient communities. It defines resiliency as a system's ability to absorb disturbances and reorganize while maintaining structure and function. Vulnerability is the lack of resilience that makes systems susceptible to harm from exposure to hazards. The framework includes social, economic, cultural, physical, political, geographical, environmental, and historical dimensions to analyze a community's resilience. The authors developed this comprehensive framework to measure resilience in communities across different dimensions and identify strengths and weaknesses to improve overall resilience.
Neural Networks Models for Large Social SystemsSSA KPI
AACIMP 2010 Summer School lecture by Alexander Makarenko. "Applied Mathematics" stream. "General Tasks and Problems of Modelling of Social Systems. Problems and Models in Sustainable Development" course. Part 3.
More info at http://summerschool.ssa.org.ua
This document proposes conceptual models for developing disaster resilient communities. It defines resiliency as a system's ability to absorb disturbances and reorganize while maintaining structure and function. Vulnerability is the flip side, occurring when resilience is lost. The document reviews several existing frameworks that measure resilience based on factors like social systems, built environments, and hazard mitigation. It then suggests applying indicators to measure dimensions of resilience in communities, identifying strengths and weaknesses to develop more resilient settlements.
This editorial provides an overview and introduction to a special issue of the International Journal of Critical Infrastructures on enhancing resilience in critical infrastructure systems. It summarizes key concepts discussed in the issue such as infrastructure dependency, interdependency, resilience, and risk governance for interconnected infrastructure systems. The editorial also previews the 10 papers in the special issue, which contribute to understanding how resilience can be applied to address challenges in different critical infrastructure systems and engineering systems more broadly. The papers evaluate approaches for assessing, enhancing, and modeling resilience in areas like transportation, dams, nuclear power plants, and buildings to help infrastructure systems withstand, recover from, and adapt to disruptions.
This document discusses methods for planning climate neutrality actions and transforming cities to be more sustainable. It addresses modeling complex urban systems and processes. Key topics covered include:
1. Non-linear transformation approaches are needed over linear ones.
2. Cities need specific agendas and implementation plans to become smart and low-carbon, addressing resilience, sustainability, and self-organization.
3. Modeling must consider cities' internal structures and dynamics occurring at different scales like districts.
Energy Awareness and the Role of “Critical Mass” In Smart Citiesirjes
This document proposes a novel analytical model to define a new concept of critical mass in the context of spreading energy awareness in smart cities. The model incorporates centrality measures in both single-layer and multilayer social networks. Simulation results show that including centrality measures and a multilayer approach lowers the critical mass needed to trigger and spread good consumer habits. Specifically, the model calculates critical mass values using eigenvector centrality in single layers and a heterogeneous eigenvector-like centrality in multilayers. Considering network structure and central nodes' influence allows a smaller critical mass to foster diffusion compared to models that do not account for centrality. Extending the analysis to multilayers further reduces critical mass by increasing tie strength between nodes.
About Frances Brazier
Frances Brazier is a full professor in Engineering Systems Foundations at the Delft University of Technology, as of September 2009, before which she chaired the Intelligent Interactive Distributed Systems Group for 10 years within the Department of Computer Science at the VU University Amsterdam. She holds a MSc in Mathematics and a doctorate in Cognitive Ergonomics from the VU Amsterdam. Parallel to her academic career she co-founded the first ISP in the Netherlands: NLnet and later NLnet Labs. She is currently a board member of the NLnetLabs Foundation.
This document reviews artificial intelligence techniques for modeling systems' sustainability. It discusses different approaches to sustainability modeling including pictorial visualizations, physical models, conceptual models, and standardizing models. It also categorizes quantitative sustainability models into macro-econometric models, computable general equilibrium models, optimization models, system dynamics models, and multi-agent simulation models. The document concludes that influence diagrams can provide an intuitive way to model sustainability and its uncertainties, and that Analytica is a tool that can be used to create influence diagrams and model complex sustainability systems.
Earth Systems Engineering and ManagementCEE 400Week 5.docxsagarlesley
Earth Systems Engineering and Management
CEE 400
Week 5: Complex Systems
Earth Systems Engineering and Management
*
Complex Systems: TermsSystems are groups of interacting, interdependent parts linked together by exchanges of energy, matter and informationComplex systems are characterized by:Strong (usually non-linear) interactions between the partsComplex feedback loops that make it difficult to distinguish cause from effectSignificant time and space lags, discontinuities, thresholds, and limitsOperation far from equilibrium in a state of constant adaptation to changing conditions (at the edge of deterministic chaos)
Adapted from R. Costanza, L. Wainger, C folk, and K. Maler, “Modeling Complex Ecological Economic,” BioScience 43(8): 545-55
Four Types of ComplexityStatic complexity (or just complicated): many nodes and links (a 747 sitting on the ground)Dynamic complexity: system operating through time (747 in flight, controlled by air traffic control)Wicked complexity: integrates human systems (global air transport as a system)Earth systems complexity: integrated built/natural/human systems at regional and global scale (e.g., effect of 747 on disease patterns, and on eco-touorism)
Evolution of Complex Adaptive Systems All complex systems evolve in response to changing boundary conditions and internal dynamics – so known as “Complex Adaptive Systems”. Evolution occurs as the result of three mechanisms linked in complicated ways:
Information storage and transmission Mutation (generation of new alternatives for system agents Selection among alternative based on performance given internal states and external boundary conditions
Where Complex Adaptive Systems LiveIf too many strong linkages among parts of a system, it cannot adapt; any mutation is rapidly damped out.If not enough linkages, also cannot adapt; mutation can’t be preserved in new system state.Therefore, CASs live between stasis and randomness
Human Systems vs. Non-Human Systems
(The “Wicked” vs. The “Tame”)
Wicked Systems:
1. Policy problems cannot be definitively described
2. There is nothing like an indisputable public good
3. There are no objective definitions of equity
4. Policies for social problems cannot be meaningfully correct or false
5. There are no “solutions”in the sense of definitive, objective answers
6. There is no optimality
Source: H.W.J. Rittel and M. M.Webber, “Dilemmas in a General Theory Planning,” Policy Scenes 4 (1973), pp. 155-169
Policy Implications
of Simple (S) vs Complex (C) Systems
Function as Displayed by System
Information
Centralized command-and-control feasible
System management by adjusting forcing behavior; command-and-control contraindicated
Causality
Centralized command-and-control to endpoint (effect) feasible
Function
Type
Policy Implication
S
Centralized; system is “knowable”
C
Information diffused throughout the system; some embedded in system structure; system too complex to be “known”
S
Linea ...
This document discusses transport resilience, which refers to the impact of and recovery from disruptions to transport systems. It examines challenges in understanding and improving resilience due to increasing complexity, uncertainty, and disruption probabilities in transport systems. The goal is to develop methods to resiliently design, plan and operate urban transport systems by applying principles like containment, adaptiveness and recourse. Experiments observe how behavior, coping strategies and system impacts vary greatly during disruptions. Tools are being developed for predictive modeling and real-time decision support to optimize multi-modal transport operations during disruptions. Trade-offs between efficiency and resilience must also be considered.
Direct democracy as the keystone of smart city governance as a complex systemUniversité Paris-Dauphine
We consider the smart city not as an addition of « smarties » (technological devices) but as system capable of evolution all along its lifecycle. This cycle has been described as Urban Lifecycle Management (Rochet 2015) since a city never dies and must be able to reconfigure itself while its internal and external environment changes.
Literature on cities as evolving ecosystems (Batty 2015) considers this evolutionary process can’t be steered in top down way, either by a supra rational actor, or on a self regulating basis as claimed by the authors of the first order cybernetics.
Integrating all the components of this evolution in the context of iconomics (economics of the III° industrial revolution)we examine why direct democracy appears to be the best drivers for this regulation and what could be its process.
Presentation by Prof John Grin given at the ESRC-funded seminar on Sustainability Transitions held at the University of Liverpool on 30 June 2011. See http://sustainabilitytransitions.info/ for further details
Evaluating Platforms for Community Sensemaking: Using the Case of the Kenyan ...COMRADES project
This document describes a study that evaluated how platforms can support community sensemaking during disruptive events. The researchers conducted a scenario-based evaluation using data from Kenya's 2017 elections. Twelve students participated in the evaluation. They were given the task of mapping reports of voting incidents and irregularities from Kenya's Uchaguzi platform to assess the validity of the elections and support security forces. The goal was to examine how such a platform could aid non-mandated responders' situational understanding. Data was collected on the participants' sensemaking process to identify requirements for resilience platforms and inform future research.
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Chapter wise All Notes of First year Basic Civil Engineering.pptxDenish Jangid
Chapter wise All Notes of First year Basic Civil Engineering
Syllabus
Chapter-1
Introduction to objective, scope and outcome the subject
Chapter 2
Introduction: Scope and Specialization of Civil Engineering, Role of civil Engineer in Society, Impact of infrastructural development on economy of country.
Chapter 3
Surveying: Object Principles & Types of Surveying; Site Plans, Plans & Maps; Scales & Unit of different Measurements.
Linear Measurements: Instruments used. Linear Measurement by Tape, Ranging out Survey Lines and overcoming Obstructions; Measurements on sloping ground; Tape corrections, conventional symbols. Angular Measurements: Instruments used; Introduction to Compass Surveying, Bearings and Longitude & Latitude of a Line, Introduction to total station.
Levelling: Instrument used Object of levelling, Methods of levelling in brief, and Contour maps.
Chapter 4
Buildings: Selection of site for Buildings, Layout of Building Plan, Types of buildings, Plinth area, carpet area, floor space index, Introduction to building byelaws, concept of sun light & ventilation. Components of Buildings & their functions, Basic concept of R.C.C., Introduction to types of foundation
Chapter 5
Transportation: Introduction to Transportation Engineering; Traffic and Road Safety: Types and Characteristics of Various Modes of Transportation; Various Road Traffic Signs, Causes of Accidents and Road Safety Measures.
Chapter 6
Environmental Engineering: Environmental Pollution, Environmental Acts and Regulations, Functional Concepts of Ecology, Basics of Species, Biodiversity, Ecosystem, Hydrological Cycle; Chemical Cycles: Carbon, Nitrogen & Phosphorus; Energy Flow in Ecosystems.
Water Pollution: Water Quality standards, Introduction to Treatment & Disposal of Waste Water. Reuse and Saving of Water, Rain Water Harvesting. Solid Waste Management: Classification of Solid Waste, Collection, Transportation and Disposal of Solid. Recycling of Solid Waste: Energy Recovery, Sanitary Landfill, On-Site Sanitation. Air & Noise Pollution: Primary and Secondary air pollutants, Harmful effects of Air Pollution, Control of Air Pollution. . Noise Pollution Harmful Effects of noise pollution, control of noise pollution, Global warming & Climate Change, Ozone depletion, Greenhouse effect
Text Books:
1. Palancharmy, Basic Civil Engineering, McGraw Hill publishers.
2. Satheesh Gopi, Basic Civil Engineering, Pearson Publishers.
3. Ketki Rangwala Dalal, Essentials of Civil Engineering, Charotar Publishing House.
4. BCP, Surveying volume 1
1. Resilience
in Spatial and Urban Systems
Aura Reggiani (University of Bologna, Italy)
INTERNATIONAL ABC WORKSHOP ON
“SMART PEOPLE IN SMART CITIES”
Banská Bystrica (Slovakia), 28-30 August 2016
Overview and Reflections on:
Resilience & Vulnerability in (Smart)Urban
Systems
Two Perspectives: Spatial Economics and Transport
2. Smart Cities and Resilience
Reflections on:
Complex evolution of smart cities
(multidimensional network perspective)
Positive and negative network externalities
Role of resilience/vulnerability vs accessibility
Two main perspectives: Spatial and Transport
Economics
3. Background (1)
Smart city: no universally accepted definition
(Albino et al., 2015 in JUT): “The concept of smart
city is far from being limited to the application of
technologies to cities”
“We believe a city to be smart when investments in
human and social capital and traditional(transport)
and modern(ICT)communication infrastructure fuel
sustainable economic growth and a high
quality of life, with a wise management of natural
resources, through a participated governance”
(Caragliu, Del Bo and Nijkamp, 2011)
4. Background (2)
The conceptualization of smart cities varies from city to city
and from country to country, depending on the level of
development, willingness to change and resources and
aspirations of the city residents:
e.g: Different connotations in India than in Europe, but also
different connotations in Europe! (Nijkamp, 2016)
Different concepts -> different measures-> different no of
indicators (60, 18, 9, 6, etc).
The spatial level of smart city: medium-size (m-s) (pop.
between 100,000-500,000 inhabitants) -> after megacities
“These m-s cities which have to cope with the larger
metropolitan areas, appear to be less equipped in terms of
critical mass, resources and organizational capacity” (TU-Wien)
5. Smart Cities: Research Questions
Can smart cities be the core of the economy (after
megacities)?
Evolution of smart cities? Strong urbanization
trends? Unexpected – even chaotic – shocks?
Sustainability? (three main perspectives:
economics/environment/social equity)
Are smart cities complex networks?
Complex (non-linear) evolution: are smart cities
also resilient?
Role of Connectivity and Accessibility?
6. Smart Cities: RoadMap
Where are we?
State of the art: how to measure a smart city?
multidimensional analyses/interdisciplinary
approaches and links with players/actors
Volume: ‘Measuring the Unmeasurable’ (Nijkamp et
al., 1987)
Where are the main problems?
- The understanding of the complex evolution of
smart cities: ‘ability to transform’ -> the role of
resilience and accessibility
What are the most promising perspectives?
Methodological/empirical/policy reflections: novel
directions
7. Smart City:
Unifying Multidimensional Perspectives
http://www.smart-cities.eu/
TU-Wien: six main dimensions
The dynamics of these dimensions: some
can be chaotic or vulnerable in their evolution
-> (un)stable impact on the whole smart
city?
How to elaborate and test this?
Synthesis Analysis: two fundamental pillars:
resilience vs accessibility
8.
9. TU-Vienna: The Emerging Smart Cities
Question: are the emerging smart cities also
resilient (able to absorb shocks)?
Sweden:
UMEAA, JOENKOEPING, ESKILSTUNA (res &acc)
Germany: ERFURT, GOETTINGEN
KIEL, MAGDEBURG, REGENSBURG, TRIER (res)
Slovakia: BANSKA BYSTRICA, KOSICE, NITRA
(res)
10. Why Resilience and Vulnerability?
Growing popularity in research
Uncertainty due the interconnections between
economic and ecological crises
Batabyal (1998): “the concept of resilience itself
appears to have been rather resilient”
Other fields:
David Whythe (philosopher) (2014): “Robust
vulnerability” (A’dam, 26 Sept., 2014)
Andrew Zolli (2010) (entrepreneur) “Resilience: Why
things bounce back”
11. Resilience and Vulnerability:
Research Questions
1. Definitions of the two terms?
2. Several indicators of resilience and vulnerability co-exist;
are these differences related to specific fields of research in
urban systems? And also: are resilience and vulnerability
complementary or conflicting concepts? (Miller et al, 2010)
3. Is a complex urban network, such the smart city, a
necessary condition for the emergence or presence of
resilience and vulnerability?-> Are smart cities resilient?
4. Can connectivity/accessibility be considered as a useful
complementary framework for better understanding and
interpreting the evolution of the smart cities – and thus their
resilience and/or vulnerability?
12. 1. Definitions
Resilience concept is stemming from ecology: clear
definition(s)
↓
Several applications in urban economics; rare
applications in transport/communication systems
Vulnerability concept is more ambiguous from the
theoretical viewpoint
↓
Rare applications in urban economics; several
applications in transport/communication systems
↓
Myriad of interpretations!
13. 2. Resilience and Vulnerability
Indicators
Many different approaches and indicators exist:
Multidisciplinary nature of these two concepts (economic,
environmental, energy, digital systems connected to
transport)
Context-specific characteristics, aims, etc. (Carlson et al.,
2012)
Even though urban resilience and vulnerability are two
states of complex networks – it is difficult to observe and
measure them in unambiguous operational terms
14. 3. Complex Networks, Resilience &
Vulnerability
Complex networks – and thus connectivity – a sine qua non for
the development of resilience and vulnerability in smart cities
Relevance of topological structures of urban/inter-urban
networks (proximity to large hubs; hubs not only as
attractors, but also as most critical nodes: Barabási,2013;
O’Kelly, 2014)
Large amount of unknown interconnectivity in and between
networks (connected smart city)
Outcome of these connectivity patterns can be heavily
negative, whether a disruption occurs
↓
1step: Identification of the type of topological configuration- As
this may suggest a tendency towards a resilient or a
vulnerable urban network (network analysis)
15. 4. Connectivity and Accessibility
Connectivity might be a core element
in the recognition of the evolution of resilience/vulnerability
states, as well as in the consequent policy actions towards
either the assessment and enhancement of resilience, or
the reduction of vulnerability:
Accessibility more complete indicator (weighting
connectivity by means of socio-economic indicators)
Accessibility as complementary framework
(Non) linear relationship between accessibility and resilience
↓
Basic definitions of resilience and vulnerability
16. Resilience: Basic Definitions
Engineering Resilience: it refers to the properties of the
system near some stable equilibrium. This definition, due to
Pimm (1984), takes the resilience of a system to be a
measure of the speed of its return to equilibrium
Ecological Resilience: it refers to the perturbation/shock that
can be absorbed before the system is displaced from one
state to another. This definition, due to Holling (1973, 1986,
1992), does not depend on whether a system is at or near
some equilibrium (e.g. chaos systems can be resilient)
(see, among others, Gibson, Ostrom, Ahn, 2000; Reggiani et
al., 2002)
↓
Connectivity not so explicit in the definition of resilience
17. Engineering Resilience vs.
Ecological Resilience (1)
The 2 Faces of
Resilience
(Holling 1996)
Attributes
(Holling
1973)
Focus
(Holling
1996)
Methodological
Nature
(Reggiani et al.
2002)
Measures
Engineering
Resilience
Efficiency,
constancy,
predictabilit
y, single
equilibrium
Efficiency
of function
Strength of the
perturbation
Resistance to
disturbance and speed
of return to equilibrium
(O'Neill et al. 1986; Pimm
1984)
Ecological
Resilience
Persistence,
change,
unpredictab
ility, multiple
locally stable
equilibria
Maintenance
of function
Size of the
attractor or
stability domain
Magnitude of
disturbance that can be
absorbed before the
system changes its
structure to new
equilibria (Walker et al.
1969)
18. Engineering Resilience vs.
Ecological Resilience (2)
Engineering resilience: more feasible under a physical
and mathematical point of view compared to ecological
resilience
The assessment of a single equilibrium – when dealing
with simple dynamic systems – can be achieved by means
of differential/difference equations
Ecological resilience refers to extent of shock that a local
stable domain is able to absorb before it is induced into
some other equilibrium (adaptivity) (for the adaptivity
concept: Levins et al., 1998; Martin, 2012)
Some elements in: Arthur (1990): multiple states among
competing technologies; in prey-predator models, etc.
19. Ecological Resilience
Ecological resilience: More revolutionary concept!
(Holling, 1973)
Computational difficulties may emerge in the presence of multiple
equilibria (more than two steady states), or in the presence of a
complex network (prey-predator systems; chaos systems (May,
1976); accelerator/multiplier by Samuelson’s business cycle, 1939)
Ecological resilience (and not engineering resilience) can be a
property even of a chaotic regime (Reggiani et al., 2002)
↓
The equilibrium/stability notions reinforce the concept of
engineering resilience
The uncertainty and unpredictability of the current network
phenomena call for the investigation of ecological resilience
(more theory is necessary here!)
20. Dynamic Complexity and Models
Multiple-chains of dynamic logistic-models (e.g. competition
/symbiosis/prey-predator models):
x(t+1) = x(t) (K1 - b x(t) –(+)c y(t)) (income)
(1)
y(t+1) = y(t) (K2 –(+)e x(t) – f y(t)) (inflows)
If system (2) is expressed in discrete time: unstable,
vulnerable and chaotic/unpredictable trajectories may
emerge, depending on the parameters’ values and initial
conditions, according to the Poincaré-Bendixson Theorem!
System (1) has frequently been utilized in spatial economic
analysis as an ‘epidemic’ model for describing technological
innovation diffusion, urban growth (e.g., Batty, 2005, Haag, 2005)
↓
Connectivity is ‘hidden’ in the interaction parameters c and e!
21. Dynamic Models: First Remarks
Chaos models worth to be ‘revisited’
Chaos models can embed both vulnerability and ‘ecological’
resilience elements:
Strange attractors (limited domain) can absorb extreme
waves of fluctuations
In chaos models small uncertainties grow exponentially,
but these ‘erratic’ and often ‘disruptive’ patterns can lead
to new equilibria (ecological resilience): relevance of
parameters’ values!
↓
Chaos models can be revisited by means of ‘ecological
resilience’
22. Resilience in Urban/Spatial Systems
Resilience linked to the evolution of spatial economic
entities, such as smart cities
Spatial economic is concerned with “the spatial pattern and
interaction of systems of production, distribution or
consumption (or more generally, human activities) in a spatial
context, including the management, planning and forecasting
of spatial development” (Nijkamp and Ratajczak, 2013)
Relevance of space as action container, as well as the
result of human action (social interactions)
Review of about 40 studies (Modica and Reggiani, 2015):
Different resilience interpretations
Different resilience indicators!
23. Table 3. Different interpretations for spatial economic resilience
Author(s) Year Main Field Definition
Kind of
Resilience
Adger 2000 Community
‘the ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses
and disturbances as a result of social, political and environmental
change’ (p. 347)
Ecological
resilience
Ashby et al. 2008 Local places
‘the extent to which local places and local government are capable
of riding the global economic punches, working within
environmental limits, dealing with external changes, bouncing back
quickly, and having high levels of social inclusion’
Both kinds of
resilience
Bristow 2010 Places
‘Resilience emphasises the importance of healthy, dynamic local
businesses—businesses which are ‘competitive’ and successful—
and yet it does so in a manner which sees virtuous
interrelationships between competition, environment and
distribution’ (p.156)
Ecological
resilience
Bruneau et
al.
2003 Community
‘the ability of social units […]to mitigate hazards, contain the
effects of disasters when they occur, and carry out recovery
activities in ways that minimize social disruption and mitigate the
effects of future earthquakes’ (p. 735)
Engineering
resilience
Coles and
Buckle
2004 Community
‘the total of the individual elements that thorough capacities, skills,
and knowledge are able to participate fully in recovery from
disasters and to cope with wider social, economic and political
communities’ (p. 6)
Engineering
resilience
Davies 2011 Region
‘the capacity of a regional economy to withstand change or to
retain its core functions despite external upheaval’, (p.370)
Both kinds of
resilience
Foster 2007 Region
‘the ability of a region to anticipate, prepare for, respond to and
recover from a disturbance’ (p.14)
Both kinds of
resilience
Hill et al. 2011 Region
‘[regional resilience] is the ability of a regional economy to
maintain or return to a pre-existing state (typically assumed to be
an equilibrium state) in the presence of some type of exogenous
(i.e., externally generated) shock’ (p. 1)
Engineering
resilience
Martin 2012 Region
‘the capacity of a regional economy to reconfigure, that is adapt, its
structure (firms, industries, technologies and institutions) so as to
maintain an acceptable growth path in output, employment and
wealth over time’ (p.10)
Ecological
(adaptive)
resilience
Paton and
Johnston
2001 Community
‘the capability to “bounce back” and to use physical and economic
resources effectively to aid recovery following exposure to hazard
activity’ (p. 158)
Engineering
resilience
Pendall et
al.
2010 City
‘Resilient city would be one that resumed its previous
[economic/population/built form] growth trajectory after a lag’ (p.
73)
Engineering
resilience
Pendall et
al.
2012 Region
‘A resilient region, is one whose governance decisions identify and
anticipate stresses, avoid those that can be avoided, and mitigate
those that cannot, thereby protecting individuals and households
from many harms and helping them recover from others’ (p. 272)
Both kinds of
resilience
Pfefferbaum
et al.
2005 Community
‘the ability of community members to take meaningful, deliberate,
collective action to remedy the effect of a problem, including the
ability to interpret the environment, intervene, and move on’ (p.
349)
Ecological
resilience
Rose and
Liao
2005
Firm and
region
‘inherent ability and adaptive response that enables firms and
regions to avoid maximum potential losses’ (p.76)
Engineering
resilience
Swanstrom 2008 Region
‘a resilient region would be one in which markets and local
political structures continually adapt to changing environmental
conditions and only when these processes fail, often due to
misguided intervention by higher level authorities which stifle their
ability to innovate, is the system forced to alter the big structures’
(p. 10)
Ecological
resilience
Wolfe 2010 Region
‘how a particular economy gets locked into a specific pattern of
growth through a cumulative series of decisions over time. This
perspective is also concerned with how new paths are launched and
regions alter their trajectory of development’ (p.140)
Ecological
resilience
24. Authors, year Sub-division
No. of
vars.
Variables Weighting
Graziano,
2013
Infrastructure
Innovation and technology
Socio-economic
19
Broadband services
Electrical network
Energy networks
Rail infrastructure
Application of designs
Application of models
European application of designs
European application of models
Patents
Bank deposits
Business density
Housing
Liquidity ratio
Loans to firms
Non food consumption/total
consumption
Pensions per capita
Population growth rate
Return on equity
Value added per capita
Factor
analysis
Martin,
2012
Socio-economic 1 Employment -
Resilience
Alliance,
2009
Infrastructure
Natural environment
Socio-economic
10
Water table depth
Water table equilibrium
Biodiversity measure
River condition
Riverine ecosystem condition
Soil acidity
Water infrastructure
Balance among values held
Farm income
Presence of high multiplier economic
sectors
Equal
weight
University at
Buffalo
Regional
Institute,
2011
Community
Socio-economic
12
Civic infrastructure
Home ownership
Without disability
Business environment
Economic diversification
Educational attainment
Health insured
Income equality
Metropolitan stability
Regional affordability
Out of poverty
Voter participation
Equal
weight
25. Spatial Economic Resilience: Summary
(Review Paper by Modica and Reggiani, 2015)
Recessionary, industry and disaster shocks
Both engineering and ecological/adaptivity resilience of a
region/community/urban area
Multeplicity of applications in USA, UK and EU: mostly
at regional level, despite a few exceptions…;-)
Role of the scale of analysis: local/urban vs region
Different socio-economic indicators (mobility
factors ara rarely present)
Different methods and measures (econometric models,
regression analyses, performance indices)
Rare connectivity considerations ->
26. Spatial Economic Vulnerability (1)
No clear definition (origins from political ecology)
Vulnerability: more negative connotation, as the overall
reduction of a system’s performance as a consequence of
dynamic factors stressing the system
↓
“It is an oversimplification to treat resilience as the
converse of vulnerability” (Seeliger and Turok, 2013)
↓
Vulnerability is more about the susceptibility of the
urban system or any of its constituents to harmful external
pressures;
Resilience concerns more the response of the urban
system: “its elasticity or capacity to rebound after a shock,
indicated by the degree of flexibility, persistence of key functions,
or ability to transform (Seeliger and Turok, 2013)
27. Spatial Economic Vulnerability (2)
Vulnerability – analogously to resilience – depends on
factors such as nature of the system, and type of
shock, which vary for different spatial and socio-
economic contexts
Developmental factors including poverty, health status,
economic inequality, and types of governance may
constitute vulnerability (Brooks et al., 2005)
These factors are also included in various resilience
indicators…
↓
Links and differences between resilience and
vulnerability in urban economics appear to be
ambiguous
28. Resilience in Spatial Economics:
Follow-up
As anticipated, the majority of the applications in spatial
economics do not take into account dynamics and
connectivity
But (smart) cities are connected (virtually, physically, intra-,
inter-)!
↓
Zipf’s Law Coeff., Rank-size Rule and Gibrat’s law (based on
population) are linked to connectivity structures (Reggiani
and Nijkamp, EPB, 2015)
↓
New theoretical steps: More Efforts on the Role of the
Parameters’ Values, also by means of dynamic models
What about Transport (Communication)
Resilience/Vulnerability in urban systems?
29. Transport Resilience & Vulnerability
Transport & communication’s evolution has strong
feedback effects on spatial economic
developments (positive and negative externalities)
Our modern society strongly depends on large scale
infrastructure networks: “Recent disasters have vividly
demonstrated the importance and vulnerability of our
transportation and critical infrastructure systems -
local disturbance has led to the global failure or
interruption of systems” (Nagurney, 2011)
Relevance of the identification of the potential ‘risk
areas’ in a early stage
Relevance not only of shock entities, but also of
propagation of shocks -> Vulnerability!
30. Transport Resilience:
Interpretations
SURVEY OF 33 ARTICLES (Reggiani et al., TRA, 2015):
↓
Adoption of similar concepts :
Robustness (Engineering resilience):
“The system will retain its systems structure (function)
intact (remain unchanged or nearly unchanged) when
exposed to perturbations” (Holmgren, 2007)
A network is “robust if the network performance stays close
to the original level” (Nagurney and Qiang, 2012)
Reliability (Ecological resilience):
Operability of the network under strenuous conditions
Ability to continue to function after shocks (Husdal, 2005)
Demand side: user’s behavioural response (Van Exel and
Rietveld, 2001)
31. Transport Resilience:
Applications/Simulations
Rare empirical applications of resilience in transport:
Change in modal split after terrorist attack on the London
subway and bus bombing in 2005 (Cox et al., 2011)
Use of network equilibrium /traffic assignment models
Several simulations of network robustness/reliability:
Hub reliability of telecommunication networks in the USA
(Kim and O’Kelly, 2009)
Robustness of the Dutch road network (Knoop et al., 2012)
and Snelder et al., 2012 )
Reliability of the Dutch railway system (Vromans et al.,
2006)
Network robustness and performance models, in the context
of financial (merger and acquisitions) and logistic networks
(Nagurney and Qiang, 2012)
32. Transport Vulnerability:
Interpretations
From network reliability to the impact of variability in the factors
that affect the urban system (Clark and Watling, 2005)
Vulnerability of reliability: vulnerability of connectivity/capacity
reliability (Watling and Balijepalli, 2012)
Reliability focuses on transport network performance, in terms
of probability; vulnerability focuses on network weaknesses or
failure, irrespective of the probability of failure (Taylor, 2008)
“Vulnerability is primarily a pre-disaster condition; resilience is
the outcome of a post-disaster response” (Rose, 2009)
Vulnerability as attention to potential weak points (susceptibility to
shocks)
33. Transport Vulnerability:
Applications/Simulations (1)
More empirical works in transport vulnerability than
in transport resilience
Vulnerability studies concern mainly road infrastructure
networks, given the extensive road coverage (Berdica, 20012;
Jenelius et al., 2006 – Swedish School by Lars-Goran Mattsson)
Network vulnerability measured as: reduction in road
network serviceability, function of recovery time (Cats &
Jenelius, 2014; Jenelius et al., 2006; Jenelius & Mattsson, 2012)
Network vulnerability as ‘reduced accessibility’ (Berdica
2002; Kondo et al., 2012; Taylor et al., 2006)
34. Transport Vulnerability:
Applications/Simulations (2)
Applications/Simulations on real case studies:
Montpellier’s road network (Appert and Chapelon,2013)
Stockholm public transport sytems (Cats and Jenelius, 2014)
Road network of Northern Sweden (Jenelius et al., 2006)
Swedish Road network (Jenelius and Mattsson, 2012
Delft and Rotterdam road network (Knoop et al., 2012)
Ohio interstate highway (Maticziw and Murray, 2007)
Kobe urban area road network (Nagae et al., 2012)
Supply chain (Qiang and Nagurney, 2012)
Rural locations in south East Australia (Taylor and Susilawati,
2012
Chinese railyway network (Ip and Wang, 2011)
Swedish commuting network (Osth and Reggiani, 2014)
Emilia Romagna-network (Rupi et al., 2014)
35. Transport Vulnerability:
First Remarks
Transport vulnerability: richer analysis than transport
resilience
Different interpretations (decrease of network performance, etc.)
Different approaches (generalized travel costs, optimization
models, risk analysis, weighted multi-criteria decision approach,
network weakeness indicators, etc.)
Analogously to resilience in economics, applications are rather
recent
Relevance of ‘Propagation of shocks’ in a network
36. First Concluding Remarks
Vulnerability: richer analysis in transport than in
spatial economics!
Resilience: richer analysis in spatial economics than
in transport!
↓
More studies on the links between these two concepts and
fields are necessary
Again: Measuring the Unmeasurable...
Multi-disciplinary approaches, for example..:
Chaos models linked to network analysis and contagion
models
37. Theoretical and Empirical Perspectives:
Theoretically: Chaos models/properties might be
revisited in a positive perspective, by means of ecological
resilience
- Small changes -> higher effects which are not
necessarily negative (as we considered in the past)
- The new equilibria - eventhough arising on the
distruction of the previous ones – can create new
opportunities (‘Old concept’ from Socrates: Chaos as the
Divinity…)
- New theoretical efforts
Empirically: (Dynamics of) Resilience vs Accessibility in
smart cities
38. Accessibility
Accessibility more complete than connectivity (economic weight)!
Accessibility: Σj Dj f(cij) (1)
f(cij) = impedance/deterrence (cost) function, which embeds the
aggregate behaviour (by means of the cost-sensitivity parameters) and
the connectivity structure ; Dj is the economic weight (e.g. workplaces)
Accessibility can identify the potential “risk areas” (least accessible)
(Berdica, 2002; Jenelius and Mattsson, 2012; Taylor et al, 2006)
Accessibility might be an instrument for enhancing resilience
↓
Application to Municipalities in Sweden
(Osth, Reggiani and Galiazzo, 2015, CEUS)
39. Measuring Resilience vs Accessibility
in Urban Areas in Sweden
(Osth, Reggiani, Galiazzo, 2015)
RCI (Resilience Capacity Index) (Kathryn A.
Foster; Cowell, 2013): http://brr.berkeley.edu/rci/
12 Socio-economic (not mobility) indicators
Three components (at municipality level in Sweden)
• Economic Capacity (4 indicators)
• income equality (income distr. Gini), economic diversity
(deviation from national industrial mix), affordability (housing
market – related to income in SE), and business environment
(ranking of local business climate)
• Socio-demographic capacity (4 indicators)
• Educational attainment (% 25+ with bachelor’s degree),
’Without disability’ (share of pop without need of care), ’out of
poverty’ (% pop above the poverty-line) and health insured
(sick leave in Sweden)
• Community connectivity capacity (4 indicators)
• Civic infrastructure (share of ‘NGO’ workers), metropolitan
stability (Stability of pop), Homeownership (residing in owned
home), and Voter participation (share voting)
40. Measuring Accessibility in Sweden
Accessibility as potential of opportunity for
interaction:
Ai = Σj Dj f (γ, dij) (Hansen, 1959)
Accessibility at location i = the sum of surrounding
opportunities/workplaces j, under influence of
cost/time/distance for reaching j
Use of a power-decay in a doubly-constrained spatial
interaction model, which has proven to be good for the
analysis of accessibility in the 290 Swedish
municipalities (Osth, Reggiani and Galiazzo, 2015)
All statistics are computed at a municipality level
43. Concluding Remarks (1)
Experiments in Sweden show that socio-economic
resilience and accessibility are linked:
Resilient smart centres are the most accessible
Suburb and commuting municipalities often have poor
resilience ranks – but high accessibility (!)
Probably accessibility will enhance resilience of these
locations in the future
Dynamics: analyses in the coming years/different countries
such as Slovakia (how is accessibility)?
44. Regional GDP per capita in the EU-2011
SLOVAKIA 12 800
Bratislavský kraj 31 500
Západné Slovensko 12 200
Stredné Slovensko 10 000
Východné Slovensko 8 700
SWEDEN 40 800
Stockholm 56 200
……
Norra Mellansverige 34 400
(Italy: Lombardia -> 33 900)
45. Concluding Remarks (2)
Socio-economic resilience – in conjunction with
accessibility analyses – might provide ‘stability results’
on (smart) cities evolution
Policy implications
Some locations are worse of than others:
• Low socio-economic resilience is less of a problem in
locations with high accessibility
• Low socio-economic resilience and low accessibility can
be a lethal combination
• High resilience and low accessibility might be
problematic in the future
Preventive action should be targeting urban areas
with low socio-economic resilience and low
accessibility
46. Conclusions: From Resilience to
Vulnerability to Reality....
(Smart) Cities as Evolutionary Accessible Networks
Two joint (Synthetic) pillars in the smart cities evolution:
resilience and accessibility
Different indicators at different spatial levels -> need for more
reflections on the measurement of resilience/vulnerability:
multidimensional analysis
For more operability, more theoretical efforts on the formalization
of these concepts are also necessary:
- e.g. Entropy vs Zipf/Gibrat’s law vs. Dynamic/Chaos models,
in the light of resilience
- Role of parameters’ values/behavioural patterns
Multi-disciplinary approaches: Spatial/Urban Economics vs
Transport Economics vs Network & Social Sciences...
47. Special Issues
Different perspectives on Resilience & Vulnerability:
Caschili, Reggiani, Medda (2015), Special Issue on “Resilience and
Vulnerability in Spatial Economic Networks”, Networks and
Spatial Economics.
Caschili, Medda, Reggiani (2015), Special Issue on “Resilience and
Vulnerability in Transport Networks”, Transport Research A.↓
Unifying framework necessary, also jointly with
accessibility:
Reggiani, Thill, Martin (2016) Special issue on “Resilience,
Vulnerability and Accessibility”, Transportation
48. Thank you,
for your ‘resilient’ attention!
Questions and comments
are welcome
49. Complexity
“Complexity has turned out to be very difficult to define”
(‘From Complexity to Perplexity’: Heylighen, 1996)
31 Definitions of complexity and associated concepts
From Latin: Complexus means ‘entwined’, ‘twisted together’
Oxford Dictionary: ‘Complex’ if it is ‘made of (usually several)
closely connected parts’
The term ‘complexity’ embeds both the assemblage of
different units in a system and their intertwined
dynamics
↓
In other words, the term ‘complexity’ is strictly related
to the concept of networks
50. Spatial Economic Networks
Net-works: ‘operations via nets’: NECTAR (1990)
Spatial (economic) networks: ordered connectivity structure
for spatial communication and transportation which is characterized
by the existence of main nodes which act as receivers or senders
(push and pull centres), and which are connected by means of
corridors and edges (Nijkamp and Reggiani, 1998)
↓
The relevance of the dynamic function of the (spatial) networks
via organized linkage patterns is embedded in this
definition
Spatial networks are networks for which the nodes are located in a
space equipped with a metric (Barthélemy, 2010)
51. Complexity and Spatial Networks
Complexity of Space-Time Phenomena
“Large number of parts that interact in a nonsimple way” (Simon,1962)
“The primary idea of complexity concerns the mapping of a system’s
non-intuitive behaviour, particularly the evolutionary patterns of
connections among interacting components of a system whose long-
run behaviour is hard to predict” (Casti, 1979)
Static vs. Dynamic Complexity
Static Complexity: network configuration, where the components are put
together in an interrelated and intricate way (high dimension of the network,
high no. of hierarchical subsystems, type of the connectivity patterns etc.)
Dynamic Complexity: dynamic (random) network behaviour governed by
non-linearities in the interacting components (computational complexity and
the evolutionary complexity; for the latter measure: chaos and evolutionary
models)