SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Earth Systems Engineering and Management
CEE 400
Week 5: Complex Systems
Earth Systems Engineering and Management
*
Complex Systems: TermsSystems are groups of interacting,
interdependent parts linked together by exchanges of energy,
matter and informationComplex systems are characterized
by:Strong (usually non-linear) interactions between the
partsComplex feedback loops that make it difficult to
distinguish cause from effectSignificant time and space lags,
discontinuities, thresholds, and limitsOperation far from
equilibrium in a state of constant adaptation to changing
conditions (at the edge of deterministic chaos)
Adapted from R. Costanza, L. Wainger, C folk, and K. Maler,
“Modeling Complex Ecological Economic,” BioScience 43(8):
545-55
Four Types of ComplexityStatic complexity (or just
complicated): many nodes and links (a 747 sitting on the
ground)Dynamic complexity: system operating through time
(747 in flight, controlled by air traffic control)Wicked
complexity: integrates human systems (global air transport as a
system)Earth systems complexity: integrated
built/natural/human systems at regional and global scale (e.g.,
effect of 747 on disease patterns, and on eco-touorism)
Evolution of Complex Adaptive Systems All complex systems
evolve in response to changing boundary conditions and internal
dynamics – so known as “Complex Adaptive Systems”.
Evolution occurs as the result of three mechanisms linked in
complicated ways:
Information storage and transmission Mutation (generation of
new alternatives for system agents Selection among alternative
based on performance given internal states and external
boundary conditions
Where Complex Adaptive Systems LiveIf too many strong
linkages among parts of a system, it cannot adapt; any mutation
is rapidly damped out.If not enough linkages, also cannot adapt;
mutation can’t be preserved in new system state.Therefore,
CASs live between stasis and randomness
Human Systems vs. Non-Human Systems
(The “Wicked” vs. The “Tame”)
Wicked Systems:
1. Policy problems cannot be definitively described
2. There is nothing like an indisputable public good
3. There are no objective definitions of equity
4. Policies for social problems cannot be meaningfully
correct or false
5. There are no “solutions”in the sense of definitive,
objective answers
6. There is no optimality
Source: H.W.J. Rittel and M. M.Webber, “Dilemmas in a
General Theory Planning,” Policy Scenes 4 (1973), pp. 155-169
Policy Implications
of Simple (S) vs Complex (C) Systems
Function as Displayed by System
Information
Centralized command-and-control feasible
System management by adjusting forcing behavior; command-
and-control contraindicated
Causality
Centralized command-and-control to endpoint (effect) feasible
Function
Type
Policy Implication
S
Centralized; system is “knowable”
C
Information diffused throughout the system; some embedded in
system structure; system too complex to be “known”
S
Linear; cause and effect east to determine
C
Causes and effects cannot be linked in most cases
Cannot be sure of actual impact on system of any policy
initiative
Policy Implications
of Simple (S) vs Complex (C) Systems (Cont)
Function
Type
Policy Implication
S
Predictable and relatively linear
C
Highly non-linear and may be discontinuous; not predictable a
priori
S
Rational centralized control is possible and effective
C
Causes and effects cannot be linked in most cases
Single, fully responsible entity with authoritarian power can
control system (e.g., U.S. EPA)
Response to Forcing
Rigid regulatory structures both o.k. (because out come
predictable) and politically preferable (because can’t be gamed)
Policy once in place must be very flexible, so can be changed as
systems response dictates: arbitrariness and gaming avoided by
adherence to appropriate set of metrics
Responsible management entity adjusts forcing functions (e.g.,
taxes or fees) and monitor results; direct control of system
towards endpoint eschewed metrics
Function as Displayed by System
Control Mechanisms
Policy Implications
of Simple (S) vs Complex (C) Systems (Cont)
S
May not be necessary because performance measured by
attaining endpoint, not system state
C
Defined in process or performance terms, and not fixed because
the constantly evolving nature of the system
Endpoints are metrics
Manage process to improve performance against metrics;
metrics critical to public/political acceptance of management
process; choice of appropriate set of metrics essential to policy
evaluate and subject to improvement as well
Metrics
Function
Type
Policy Implication
S
Defined as static terms, and achievable, not path dependent
C
Defined in process or performance terms, and not fixed because
of constantly evolving nature of systems
Endpoint
Command-and-control management to endpoint o.k.
No defined endpoint; manage system to achieve desired
emergent behavior
Function as Displayed by System
Policy Implications
of Simple (S) vs Complex (C) Systems (Cont)
Function
Type
Policy Implication
S
Produce endpoint
C
Maintain system stability and integrity over time
Existence
Can minimize specific insult (e.g., lead dispersion from use in
gasoline); cannot lead to or support achievability of
sustainability
Policy focus as a whole must be on system, not arbitrary
components; metrics focus on stability and systems dynamics,
not throughput
Function as Displayed by System
Complex System Case Study:
Water
Water as Earth System:
What is it?It is a materialIt is a commodity (a material that can
be owned)It is a legal construct – “water rights”It is a cultural
construct – “water as human right”It is a technological construct
(technology makes “potable water” from “sewage”)
*
Water as Earth SystemIt is transport (in Roman empire,
estimates that moving a given load 1 mile by oxcart = 5.7 miles
by river = 57 miles by sea) Development economics theorizes
that inland countries are disadvantaged because of lack of
access to ocean shippingThe railroad made up for this later in
some countries It is energyIt is political power (cf. water wars)
Essential for life (critical environmentally)
Dada from A. Beattie, 2009, False Economy, London: Penguin))
*
Water as Earth SystemIt is something that can be used, but not
used up (form and quality matter)
Availability in a particular circumstance is a matter of
pricepoint, infrastructure and power, not “natural” constraints.
Distribution challenges arise from transitional regimes (e.g.,
climate change, technology and infrastructure design and
construction) and cultural regimes (e.g., water as “human right”
must be economically free)
Traditional definitions fail (e.g., factory beef from stem cells as
“water technology”)
*
Water as Earth SystemLike all critical earth systems, it can be
weaponized (cf: food as weapon in Darfur)
It is provided, traded, and sold both as a material (“water”) and
as embedded in other products (“virtual water”)
*
Embedded Water Content of Selected Items
Based on Gradel and Allenby, Industrial Ecology and
Sustainable Engineering, 2010, Prentice-Hall; A.Y. Hoekstra
and A.K. Chapagain, Water footprints of nations: Water use by
people as a function of their consumption pattern, Water
Resources Management, 21, 35–48, 2007ProductEmbedded
water content (liters)1 microchip (2 g) 321 sheet of A4-size
paper (80 g/m2) 101 slice of bread (30 g)401 potato
(100 g)251 cup of coffee (125 ml)1401 bag of potato crisps
(190 g)1851 hamburger (150 g)2,400Embedded Water Content,
liters per gram16.125 (liters/m2)1.33.251.12 (l/ml).9716
*
Embedded Water80% of embedded water in global trade is in
agricultural goods¾ in crops¼ in animal productsBut beef is
single largest component of virtual water flow at 13% of global
VW, compared with 11% for soybeans and 9% for wheat,
because . . .To produce:1 ton of vegetables requires about 1,000
cubic meters of water1 ton of wheat requires about 1,450 cubic
meters1 ton of beef requires 42,500 cubic meters
*
Water as Earth System
WATER SYSTEMS
Production Technologies
Nitrogen Cycle
Carbon Cycle
Phosphorous Cycle
Biodiversity
Recycling Technologies
Treatment Technologies
Efficient Use Options
Agriculture
Global Trade
WATER ECONOMICS
Culture/Law
OTHER TECHNOLOGY SYSTEMS
EARTH SYSTEMS
USUAL
FOCUS
OF
WATER
POLICY
Human Health
*
Institutional Time/Population Space
(log/log scales)
0
3
-1
1
2
-1
-2
Time
1
10
5
15
20
Small Group or Individual Decisions
Policy, Contract
Law
Constitution
Culture
Religion-Technology Systems (coupled vs uncoupled)
Traditions and Values
Fads
Population Involved
Source: Based on L.H. Gunderson, C. S. Holling, and S. S.
Light, “Barriers broken and bridges built”, in L. H. Gunderson,
C.S. Holling, and S. S. Light, eds., Barriers and Bridges (New
York, Columbia University Press: 1995), p. 521
Human Psychology and Natural Systems Scale
102
104
106
108
1010
1012
10-1
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
1 hour
1 day
1 month
1 year
1 century
1 millennium
Wind Velocity
Human Transportation
Person
House
Livermore
United States
Circ of earth
Personal garbage
Tornados
The Tides
Thunderstorms
Dump
Faults
Aquifers
Ponds, Lakes
Storms
Jet streams
Meters
Seconds
Human psychological horizon
System Structure Over Different Time Scales
Time Scale
Endogenous
Exogenous
Principal Implementation Mechanism
Principal R&D Component
Integration of Natural and Artifactual Systems
Short Term (ca. 5 years)
Medium Term (ca. 5-10 years)
Long Term (ca. 10-100 years)
Incremental technology evolution within existing major
technology systems
Evolution of product and process technology systems, marginal
cultural change
Significant evolution of major technology systems; link between
quality of life and material consumption; population levels;
most aspects of culture
Population level, cultural change
Population level, significant cultural change
Almost nothing
Policy
Changes in legal structures, disciplinary assumptions, based on
industrial ecology
Metrics, changes in fundamental conservative cultural systems
(e.g., religion)
Short term industrial ecology R&D (e.g., Design for
Environment, Integrated Pest Management)
Industrial ecology infrastructure (e.g., environmentally
preferable materials database)
Industrial ecology systems (e.g., resource and energy
maps of communities and regions)
Experimental stage involving small systems (e.g., bioreactors,
drug production in genetically engineered sheep)
Partial integration of biological and engineered systems (e.g.,
commercial energy from biomass; engineered wetlands for
flood, pollution control, and waste processing)
Management of integrated regional and global systems (e.g.,
water cycles in Yellow River watershed or Southwestern United
States); Earth Systems Engineering
Earth Systems Engineering and ManagementCEE 400Week 5.docx

More Related Content

Similar to Earth Systems Engineering and ManagementCEE 400Week 5.docx

Pursuing sustainability
Pursuing sustainabilityPursuing sustainability
Pursuing sustainability
Nele Schmitz
 
Akashdeepsinghjandu6 environment
Akashdeepsinghjandu6 environmentAkashdeepsinghjandu6 environment
Akashdeepsinghjandu6 environment
Akashdeep Singh Jandu
 
Elisabeth Shrimpton
Elisabeth ShrimptonElisabeth Shrimpton
Elisabeth Shrimpton
RuthMcIlmoyleUKCRIC
 
Environmental sciencesjun01
Environmental sciencesjun01Environmental sciencesjun01
Environmental sciencesjun01
Clifford Stone
 
Melissa Leach: Pathways to Sustainability: Environmental social science and ...
Melissa Leach: Pathways to Sustainability: Environmental social science and ...Melissa Leach: Pathways to Sustainability: Environmental social science and ...
Melissa Leach: Pathways to Sustainability: Environmental social science and ...
STEPS Centre
 
Scope of Sustainable Development
Scope of Sustainable DevelopmentScope of Sustainable Development
Scope of Sustainable Development
Preeti Sikder
 
You Want The Future
You Want The FutureYou Want The Future
You Want The Future
LincolnCenterASU
 
System approach in Geography
System approach in GeographySystem approach in Geography
System approach in Geography
Himangshu Bailung
 
Resilience Topic Working Group Meeting IFWF3
Resilience Topic Working Group Meeting IFWF3Resilience Topic Working Group Meeting IFWF3
Resilience Topic Working Group Meeting IFWF3
International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
 
Resilience Topic Working Group IFWF3
Resilience Topic Working Group IFWF3Resilience Topic Working Group IFWF3
Resilience Topic Working Group IFWF3
International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
 
Connecting USDA and NSF Terrestrial Observation Network to Science Policy
Connecting USDA and NSF Terrestrial Observation Network to Science PolicyConnecting USDA and NSF Terrestrial Observation Network to Science Policy
Connecting USDA and NSF Terrestrial Observation Network to Science Policy
Brian Wee
 
Identifying Key Factors Driving Platform Ecosystem to Collapse
Identifying Key Factors Driving Platform Ecosystem to CollapseIdentifying Key Factors Driving Platform Ecosystem to Collapse
Identifying Key Factors Driving Platform Ecosystem to Collapse
ijtsrd
 
Fisher Data Standards For Living Capital
Fisher Data Standards For Living CapitalFisher Data Standards For Living Capital
Fisher Data Standards For Living Capital
wpfisherjr
 
Green Infrastructure 101 - DR
Green Infrastructure 101 - DRGreen Infrastructure 101 - DR
Green Infrastructure 101 - DR
Park Pride
 
F O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docx
F O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docxF O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docx
F O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docx
lmelaine
 
F O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docx
F O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docxF O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docx
F O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docx
mecklenburgstrelitzh
 
Reversing Global Warming
Reversing Global WarmingReversing Global Warming
Reversing Global Warming
Bob Prieto
 
Utility Policies
Utility PoliciesUtility Policies
Utility Policies
Ravenskirk Llp
 
Transitions for IHDP international Workshop, Delhi, India
Transitions for IHDP international Workshop, Delhi, IndiaTransitions for IHDP international Workshop, Delhi, India
Transitions for IHDP international Workshop, Delhi, India
DRIFT - Erasmus University Rotterdam
 
City_politics_and_the_environment_g2[1].pptx
City_politics_and_the_environment_g2[1].pptxCity_politics_and_the_environment_g2[1].pptx
City_politics_and_the_environment_g2[1].pptx
RoxanneMendez2
 

Similar to Earth Systems Engineering and ManagementCEE 400Week 5.docx (20)

Pursuing sustainability
Pursuing sustainabilityPursuing sustainability
Pursuing sustainability
 
Akashdeepsinghjandu6 environment
Akashdeepsinghjandu6 environmentAkashdeepsinghjandu6 environment
Akashdeepsinghjandu6 environment
 
Elisabeth Shrimpton
Elisabeth ShrimptonElisabeth Shrimpton
Elisabeth Shrimpton
 
Environmental sciencesjun01
Environmental sciencesjun01Environmental sciencesjun01
Environmental sciencesjun01
 
Melissa Leach: Pathways to Sustainability: Environmental social science and ...
Melissa Leach: Pathways to Sustainability: Environmental social science and ...Melissa Leach: Pathways to Sustainability: Environmental social science and ...
Melissa Leach: Pathways to Sustainability: Environmental social science and ...
 
Scope of Sustainable Development
Scope of Sustainable DevelopmentScope of Sustainable Development
Scope of Sustainable Development
 
You Want The Future
You Want The FutureYou Want The Future
You Want The Future
 
System approach in Geography
System approach in GeographySystem approach in Geography
System approach in Geography
 
Resilience Topic Working Group Meeting IFWF3
Resilience Topic Working Group Meeting IFWF3Resilience Topic Working Group Meeting IFWF3
Resilience Topic Working Group Meeting IFWF3
 
Resilience Topic Working Group IFWF3
Resilience Topic Working Group IFWF3Resilience Topic Working Group IFWF3
Resilience Topic Working Group IFWF3
 
Connecting USDA and NSF Terrestrial Observation Network to Science Policy
Connecting USDA and NSF Terrestrial Observation Network to Science PolicyConnecting USDA and NSF Terrestrial Observation Network to Science Policy
Connecting USDA and NSF Terrestrial Observation Network to Science Policy
 
Identifying Key Factors Driving Platform Ecosystem to Collapse
Identifying Key Factors Driving Platform Ecosystem to CollapseIdentifying Key Factors Driving Platform Ecosystem to Collapse
Identifying Key Factors Driving Platform Ecosystem to Collapse
 
Fisher Data Standards For Living Capital
Fisher Data Standards For Living CapitalFisher Data Standards For Living Capital
Fisher Data Standards For Living Capital
 
Green Infrastructure 101 - DR
Green Infrastructure 101 - DRGreen Infrastructure 101 - DR
Green Infrastructure 101 - DR
 
F O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docx
F O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docxF O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docx
F O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docx
 
F O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docx
F O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docxF O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docx
F O R U MComplexity and TransitionManagementJan Rotman.docx
 
Reversing Global Warming
Reversing Global WarmingReversing Global Warming
Reversing Global Warming
 
Utility Policies
Utility PoliciesUtility Policies
Utility Policies
 
Transitions for IHDP international Workshop, Delhi, India
Transitions for IHDP international Workshop, Delhi, IndiaTransitions for IHDP international Workshop, Delhi, India
Transitions for IHDP international Workshop, Delhi, India
 
City_politics_and_the_environment_g2[1].pptx
City_politics_and_the_environment_g2[1].pptxCity_politics_and_the_environment_g2[1].pptx
City_politics_and_the_environment_g2[1].pptx
 

More from sagarlesley

Eating DisordersTOPIC OVERVIEWAnorexia NervosaThe Clinic.docx
Eating DisordersTOPIC OVERVIEWAnorexia NervosaThe Clinic.docxEating DisordersTOPIC OVERVIEWAnorexia NervosaThe Clinic.docx
Eating DisordersTOPIC OVERVIEWAnorexia NervosaThe Clinic.docx
sagarlesley
 
Earning Your Place in the Investment WorldThe CFA Program.docx
Earning Your Place in the Investment WorldThe CFA Program.docxEarning Your Place in the Investment WorldThe CFA Program.docx
Earning Your Place in the Investment WorldThe CFA Program.docx
sagarlesley
 
Earned value management is only as good as the supporting systems .docx
Earned value management is only as good as the supporting systems .docxEarned value management is only as good as the supporting systems .docx
Earned value management is only as good as the supporting systems .docx
sagarlesley
 
Early World Literature4 VIRTUE Page 4.2 The Buddha’s Birth.docx
Early World Literature4 VIRTUE  Page 4.2 The Buddha’s Birth.docxEarly World Literature4 VIRTUE  Page 4.2 The Buddha’s Birth.docx
Early World Literature4 VIRTUE Page 4.2 The Buddha’s Birth.docx
sagarlesley
 
Early Warning Memo for the United States Governmen.docx
Early Warning Memo for the United States Governmen.docxEarly Warning Memo for the United States Governmen.docx
Early Warning Memo for the United States Governmen.docx
sagarlesley
 
Early Learning Center PortfolioSPED 293C Assignment Outline.docx
Early Learning Center PortfolioSPED 293C Assignment Outline.docxEarly Learning Center PortfolioSPED 293C Assignment Outline.docx
Early Learning Center PortfolioSPED 293C Assignment Outline.docx
sagarlesley
 
Early Intervention Research Paper CriteriaExemplary Proficie.docx
Early Intervention Research Paper CriteriaExemplary Proficie.docxEarly Intervention Research Paper CriteriaExemplary Proficie.docx
Early Intervention Research Paper CriteriaExemplary Proficie.docx
sagarlesley
 
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA4Early immigrant in Mi.docx
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA4Early immigrant in Mi.docxEARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA4Early immigrant in Mi.docx
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA4Early immigrant in Mi.docx
sagarlesley
 
Earned Value AnalysisTracking Project ProgressWh.docx
Earned Value AnalysisTracking Project ProgressWh.docxEarned Value AnalysisTracking Project ProgressWh.docx
Earned Value AnalysisTracking Project ProgressWh.docx
sagarlesley
 
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA2Early immigrant in Mi.docx
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA2Early immigrant in Mi.docxEARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA2Early immigrant in Mi.docx
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA2Early immigrant in Mi.docx
sagarlesley
 
Eastman Kodak CompanyHaley Duell5122016.docx
Eastman Kodak CompanyHaley Duell5122016.docxEastman Kodak CompanyHaley Duell5122016.docx
Eastman Kodak CompanyHaley Duell5122016.docx
sagarlesley
 
EASY Note CardsStudents need an easy” way to keep their stu.docx
EASY Note CardsStudents need an easy” way to keep their stu.docxEASY Note CardsStudents need an easy” way to keep their stu.docx
EASY Note CardsStudents need an easy” way to keep their stu.docx
sagarlesley
 
Earthquake Activity San Francisco AreaComplete the activity o.docx
Earthquake Activity San Francisco AreaComplete the activity o.docxEarthquake Activity San Francisco AreaComplete the activity o.docx
Earthquake Activity San Francisco AreaComplete the activity o.docx
sagarlesley
 
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA10Early immigrant in M.docx
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA10Early immigrant in M.docxEARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA10Early immigrant in M.docx
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA10Early immigrant in M.docx
sagarlesley
 
Earthquake PreparednessWork individually and in groups t.docx
Earthquake PreparednessWork individually and in groups t.docxEarthquake PreparednessWork individually and in groups t.docx
Earthquake PreparednessWork individually and in groups t.docx
sagarlesley
 
Early Head Start Relationships Associationwith Program Outc.docx
Early Head Start Relationships Associationwith Program Outc.docxEarly Head Start Relationships Associationwith Program Outc.docx
Early Head Start Relationships Associationwith Program Outc.docx
sagarlesley
 
Each [art is its own paper and should be written as such- its o.docx
Each [art is its own paper and should be written as such- its o.docxEach [art is its own paper and should be written as such- its o.docx
Each [art is its own paper and should be written as such- its o.docx
sagarlesley
 
Early Adopters Who needs Those…As technology spreads faster and.docx
Early Adopters Who needs Those…As technology spreads faster and.docxEarly Adopters Who needs Those…As technology spreads faster and.docx
Early Adopters Who needs Those…As technology spreads faster and.docx
sagarlesley
 
Each topic should be summarized in your own words; why it was impo.docx
Each topic should be summarized in your own words; why it was impo.docxEach topic should be summarized in your own words; why it was impo.docx
Each topic should be summarized in your own words; why it was impo.docx
sagarlesley
 
Each text in this unit brings a unique perspective to the discussi.docx
Each text in this unit brings a unique perspective to the discussi.docxEach text in this unit brings a unique perspective to the discussi.docx
Each text in this unit brings a unique perspective to the discussi.docx
sagarlesley
 

More from sagarlesley (20)

Eating DisordersTOPIC OVERVIEWAnorexia NervosaThe Clinic.docx
Eating DisordersTOPIC OVERVIEWAnorexia NervosaThe Clinic.docxEating DisordersTOPIC OVERVIEWAnorexia NervosaThe Clinic.docx
Eating DisordersTOPIC OVERVIEWAnorexia NervosaThe Clinic.docx
 
Earning Your Place in the Investment WorldThe CFA Program.docx
Earning Your Place in the Investment WorldThe CFA Program.docxEarning Your Place in the Investment WorldThe CFA Program.docx
Earning Your Place in the Investment WorldThe CFA Program.docx
 
Earned value management is only as good as the supporting systems .docx
Earned value management is only as good as the supporting systems .docxEarned value management is only as good as the supporting systems .docx
Earned value management is only as good as the supporting systems .docx
 
Early World Literature4 VIRTUE Page 4.2 The Buddha’s Birth.docx
Early World Literature4 VIRTUE  Page 4.2 The Buddha’s Birth.docxEarly World Literature4 VIRTUE  Page 4.2 The Buddha’s Birth.docx
Early World Literature4 VIRTUE Page 4.2 The Buddha’s Birth.docx
 
Early Warning Memo for the United States Governmen.docx
Early Warning Memo for the United States Governmen.docxEarly Warning Memo for the United States Governmen.docx
Early Warning Memo for the United States Governmen.docx
 
Early Learning Center PortfolioSPED 293C Assignment Outline.docx
Early Learning Center PortfolioSPED 293C Assignment Outline.docxEarly Learning Center PortfolioSPED 293C Assignment Outline.docx
Early Learning Center PortfolioSPED 293C Assignment Outline.docx
 
Early Intervention Research Paper CriteriaExemplary Proficie.docx
Early Intervention Research Paper CriteriaExemplary Proficie.docxEarly Intervention Research Paper CriteriaExemplary Proficie.docx
Early Intervention Research Paper CriteriaExemplary Proficie.docx
 
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA4Early immigrant in Mi.docx
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA4Early immigrant in Mi.docxEARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA4Early immigrant in Mi.docx
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA4Early immigrant in Mi.docx
 
Earned Value AnalysisTracking Project ProgressWh.docx
Earned Value AnalysisTracking Project ProgressWh.docxEarned Value AnalysisTracking Project ProgressWh.docx
Earned Value AnalysisTracking Project ProgressWh.docx
 
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA2Early immigrant in Mi.docx
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA2Early immigrant in Mi.docxEARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA2Early immigrant in Mi.docx
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA2Early immigrant in Mi.docx
 
Eastman Kodak CompanyHaley Duell5122016.docx
Eastman Kodak CompanyHaley Duell5122016.docxEastman Kodak CompanyHaley Duell5122016.docx
Eastman Kodak CompanyHaley Duell5122016.docx
 
EASY Note CardsStudents need an easy” way to keep their stu.docx
EASY Note CardsStudents need an easy” way to keep their stu.docxEASY Note CardsStudents need an easy” way to keep their stu.docx
EASY Note CardsStudents need an easy” way to keep their stu.docx
 
Earthquake Activity San Francisco AreaComplete the activity o.docx
Earthquake Activity San Francisco AreaComplete the activity o.docxEarthquake Activity San Francisco AreaComplete the activity o.docx
Earthquake Activity San Francisco AreaComplete the activity o.docx
 
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA10Early immigrant in M.docx
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA10Early immigrant in M.docxEARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA10Early immigrant in M.docx
EARLY IMMIGRANT IN MINNESOTA10Early immigrant in M.docx
 
Earthquake PreparednessWork individually and in groups t.docx
Earthquake PreparednessWork individually and in groups t.docxEarthquake PreparednessWork individually and in groups t.docx
Earthquake PreparednessWork individually and in groups t.docx
 
Early Head Start Relationships Associationwith Program Outc.docx
Early Head Start Relationships Associationwith Program Outc.docxEarly Head Start Relationships Associationwith Program Outc.docx
Early Head Start Relationships Associationwith Program Outc.docx
 
Each [art is its own paper and should be written as such- its o.docx
Each [art is its own paper and should be written as such- its o.docxEach [art is its own paper and should be written as such- its o.docx
Each [art is its own paper and should be written as such- its o.docx
 
Early Adopters Who needs Those…As technology spreads faster and.docx
Early Adopters Who needs Those…As technology spreads faster and.docxEarly Adopters Who needs Those…As technology spreads faster and.docx
Early Adopters Who needs Those…As technology spreads faster and.docx
 
Each topic should be summarized in your own words; why it was impo.docx
Each topic should be summarized in your own words; why it was impo.docxEach topic should be summarized in your own words; why it was impo.docx
Each topic should be summarized in your own words; why it was impo.docx
 
Each text in this unit brings a unique perspective to the discussi.docx
Each text in this unit brings a unique perspective to the discussi.docxEach text in this unit brings a unique perspective to the discussi.docx
Each text in this unit brings a unique perspective to the discussi.docx
 

Recently uploaded

How To Sell Hamster Kombat Coin In Pre-market
How To Sell Hamster Kombat Coin In Pre-marketHow To Sell Hamster Kombat Coin In Pre-market
How To Sell Hamster Kombat Coin In Pre-market
Sikandar Ali
 
Parkinson Disease & Anti-Parkinsonian Drugs.pptx
Parkinson Disease & Anti-Parkinsonian Drugs.pptxParkinson Disease & Anti-Parkinsonian Drugs.pptx
Parkinson Disease & Anti-Parkinsonian Drugs.pptx
AnujVishwakarma34
 
React Interview Question PDF By ScholarHat
React Interview Question PDF By ScholarHatReact Interview Question PDF By ScholarHat
React Interview Question PDF By ScholarHat
Scholarhat
 
SD_Integrating 21st Century Skills in Classroom-based Assessment.pptx
SD_Integrating 21st Century Skills in Classroom-based Assessment.pptxSD_Integrating 21st Century Skills in Classroom-based Assessment.pptx
SD_Integrating 21st Century Skills in Classroom-based Assessment.pptx
elwoodprias1
 
Brigada Eskwela 2024 PowerPoint Update for SY 2024-2025
Brigada Eskwela 2024 PowerPoint Update for SY 2024-2025Brigada Eskwela 2024 PowerPoint Update for SY 2024-2025
Brigada Eskwela 2024 PowerPoint Update for SY 2024-2025
ALBERTHISOLER1
 
2024 Winter SWAYAM NPTEL & A Student.pptx
2024 Winter SWAYAM NPTEL & A Student.pptx2024 Winter SWAYAM NPTEL & A Student.pptx
2024 Winter SWAYAM NPTEL & A Student.pptx
Utsav Yagnik
 
MVC Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat
MVC Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHatMVC Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat
MVC Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat
Scholarhat
 
Introduction to Banking System in India.ppt
Introduction to Banking System in India.pptIntroduction to Banking System in India.ppt
Introduction to Banking System in India.ppt
Dr. S. Bulomine Regi
 
MathematicsGrade7-Presentation-July-12024.pptx
MathematicsGrade7-Presentation-July-12024.pptxMathematicsGrade7-Presentation-July-12024.pptx
MathematicsGrade7-Presentation-July-12024.pptx
nolicaliso1
 
2 Post harvest Physiology of Horticulture produce.pptx
2 Post harvest Physiology of Horticulture  produce.pptx2 Post harvest Physiology of Horticulture  produce.pptx
2 Post harvest Physiology of Horticulture produce.pptx
UmeshTimilsina1
 
Odoo 17 Events - Attendees List Scanning
Odoo 17 Events - Attendees List ScanningOdoo 17 Events - Attendees List Scanning
Odoo 17 Events - Attendees List Scanning
Celine George
 
Codeavour 5.0 International Impact Report - The Biggest International AI, Cod...
Codeavour 5.0 International Impact Report - The Biggest International AI, Cod...Codeavour 5.0 International Impact Report - The Biggest International AI, Cod...
Codeavour 5.0 International Impact Report - The Biggest International AI, Cod...
Codeavour International
 
SQL Server Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat
SQL Server Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHatSQL Server Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat
SQL Server Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat
Scholarhat
 
Lecture Notes Unit4 Chapter13 users , roles and privileges
Lecture Notes Unit4 Chapter13 users , roles and privilegesLecture Notes Unit4 Chapter13 users , roles and privileges
Lecture Notes Unit4 Chapter13 users , roles and privileges
Murugan146644
 
3. Maturity_indices_of_fruits_and_vegetable.pptx
3. Maturity_indices_of_fruits_and_vegetable.pptx3. Maturity_indices_of_fruits_and_vegetable.pptx
3. Maturity_indices_of_fruits_and_vegetable.pptx
UmeshTimilsina1
 
Open and Critical Perspectives on AI in Education
Open and Critical Perspectives on AI in EducationOpen and Critical Perspectives on AI in Education
Open and Critical Perspectives on AI in Education
Robert Farrow
 
5. Postharvest deterioration of fruits and vegetables.pptx
5. Postharvest deterioration of fruits and vegetables.pptx5. Postharvest deterioration of fruits and vegetables.pptx
5. Postharvest deterioration of fruits and vegetables.pptx
UmeshTimilsina1
 
FIRST AID PRESENTATION ON INDUSTRIAL SAFETY by dr lal.ppt
FIRST AID PRESENTATION ON INDUSTRIAL SAFETY by dr lal.pptFIRST AID PRESENTATION ON INDUSTRIAL SAFETY by dr lal.ppt
FIRST AID PRESENTATION ON INDUSTRIAL SAFETY by dr lal.ppt
ashutoshklal29
 
BỘ ĐỀ THI HỌC SINH GIỎI CÁC TỈNH MÔN TIẾNG ANH LỚP 9 NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 (CÓ FI...
BỘ ĐỀ THI HỌC SINH GIỎI CÁC TỈNH MÔN TIẾNG ANH LỚP 9 NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 (CÓ FI...BỘ ĐỀ THI HỌC SINH GIỎI CÁC TỈNH MÔN TIẾNG ANH LỚP 9 NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 (CÓ FI...
BỘ ĐỀ THI HỌC SINH GIỎI CÁC TỈNH MÔN TIẾNG ANH LỚP 9 NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 (CÓ FI...
Nguyen Thanh Tu Collection
 
ASP.NET Core Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat.pdf
ASP.NET Core Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat.pdfASP.NET Core Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat.pdf
ASP.NET Core Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat.pdf
Scholarhat
 

Recently uploaded (20)

How To Sell Hamster Kombat Coin In Pre-market
How To Sell Hamster Kombat Coin In Pre-marketHow To Sell Hamster Kombat Coin In Pre-market
How To Sell Hamster Kombat Coin In Pre-market
 
Parkinson Disease & Anti-Parkinsonian Drugs.pptx
Parkinson Disease & Anti-Parkinsonian Drugs.pptxParkinson Disease & Anti-Parkinsonian Drugs.pptx
Parkinson Disease & Anti-Parkinsonian Drugs.pptx
 
React Interview Question PDF By ScholarHat
React Interview Question PDF By ScholarHatReact Interview Question PDF By ScholarHat
React Interview Question PDF By ScholarHat
 
SD_Integrating 21st Century Skills in Classroom-based Assessment.pptx
SD_Integrating 21st Century Skills in Classroom-based Assessment.pptxSD_Integrating 21st Century Skills in Classroom-based Assessment.pptx
SD_Integrating 21st Century Skills in Classroom-based Assessment.pptx
 
Brigada Eskwela 2024 PowerPoint Update for SY 2024-2025
Brigada Eskwela 2024 PowerPoint Update for SY 2024-2025Brigada Eskwela 2024 PowerPoint Update for SY 2024-2025
Brigada Eskwela 2024 PowerPoint Update for SY 2024-2025
 
2024 Winter SWAYAM NPTEL & A Student.pptx
2024 Winter SWAYAM NPTEL & A Student.pptx2024 Winter SWAYAM NPTEL & A Student.pptx
2024 Winter SWAYAM NPTEL & A Student.pptx
 
MVC Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat
MVC Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHatMVC Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat
MVC Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat
 
Introduction to Banking System in India.ppt
Introduction to Banking System in India.pptIntroduction to Banking System in India.ppt
Introduction to Banking System in India.ppt
 
MathematicsGrade7-Presentation-July-12024.pptx
MathematicsGrade7-Presentation-July-12024.pptxMathematicsGrade7-Presentation-July-12024.pptx
MathematicsGrade7-Presentation-July-12024.pptx
 
2 Post harvest Physiology of Horticulture produce.pptx
2 Post harvest Physiology of Horticulture  produce.pptx2 Post harvest Physiology of Horticulture  produce.pptx
2 Post harvest Physiology of Horticulture produce.pptx
 
Odoo 17 Events - Attendees List Scanning
Odoo 17 Events - Attendees List ScanningOdoo 17 Events - Attendees List Scanning
Odoo 17 Events - Attendees List Scanning
 
Codeavour 5.0 International Impact Report - The Biggest International AI, Cod...
Codeavour 5.0 International Impact Report - The Biggest International AI, Cod...Codeavour 5.0 International Impact Report - The Biggest International AI, Cod...
Codeavour 5.0 International Impact Report - The Biggest International AI, Cod...
 
SQL Server Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat
SQL Server Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHatSQL Server Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat
SQL Server Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat
 
Lecture Notes Unit4 Chapter13 users , roles and privileges
Lecture Notes Unit4 Chapter13 users , roles and privilegesLecture Notes Unit4 Chapter13 users , roles and privileges
Lecture Notes Unit4 Chapter13 users , roles and privileges
 
3. Maturity_indices_of_fruits_and_vegetable.pptx
3. Maturity_indices_of_fruits_and_vegetable.pptx3. Maturity_indices_of_fruits_and_vegetable.pptx
3. Maturity_indices_of_fruits_and_vegetable.pptx
 
Open and Critical Perspectives on AI in Education
Open and Critical Perspectives on AI in EducationOpen and Critical Perspectives on AI in Education
Open and Critical Perspectives on AI in Education
 
5. Postharvest deterioration of fruits and vegetables.pptx
5. Postharvest deterioration of fruits and vegetables.pptx5. Postharvest deterioration of fruits and vegetables.pptx
5. Postharvest deterioration of fruits and vegetables.pptx
 
FIRST AID PRESENTATION ON INDUSTRIAL SAFETY by dr lal.ppt
FIRST AID PRESENTATION ON INDUSTRIAL SAFETY by dr lal.pptFIRST AID PRESENTATION ON INDUSTRIAL SAFETY by dr lal.ppt
FIRST AID PRESENTATION ON INDUSTRIAL SAFETY by dr lal.ppt
 
BỘ ĐỀ THI HỌC SINH GIỎI CÁC TỈNH MÔN TIẾNG ANH LỚP 9 NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 (CÓ FI...
BỘ ĐỀ THI HỌC SINH GIỎI CÁC TỈNH MÔN TIẾNG ANH LỚP 9 NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 (CÓ FI...BỘ ĐỀ THI HỌC SINH GIỎI CÁC TỈNH MÔN TIẾNG ANH LỚP 9 NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 (CÓ FI...
BỘ ĐỀ THI HỌC SINH GIỎI CÁC TỈNH MÔN TIẾNG ANH LỚP 9 NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 (CÓ FI...
 
ASP.NET Core Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat.pdf
ASP.NET Core Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat.pdfASP.NET Core Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat.pdf
ASP.NET Core Interview Questions PDF By ScholarHat.pdf
 

Earth Systems Engineering and ManagementCEE 400Week 5.docx

  • 1. Earth Systems Engineering and Management CEE 400 Week 5: Complex Systems Earth Systems Engineering and Management * Complex Systems: TermsSystems are groups of interacting, interdependent parts linked together by exchanges of energy, matter and informationComplex systems are characterized by:Strong (usually non-linear) interactions between the partsComplex feedback loops that make it difficult to distinguish cause from effectSignificant time and space lags, discontinuities, thresholds, and limitsOperation far from equilibrium in a state of constant adaptation to changing conditions (at the edge of deterministic chaos) Adapted from R. Costanza, L. Wainger, C folk, and K. Maler, “Modeling Complex Ecological Economic,” BioScience 43(8): 545-55 Four Types of ComplexityStatic complexity (or just complicated): many nodes and links (a 747 sitting on the ground)Dynamic complexity: system operating through time
  • 2. (747 in flight, controlled by air traffic control)Wicked complexity: integrates human systems (global air transport as a system)Earth systems complexity: integrated built/natural/human systems at regional and global scale (e.g., effect of 747 on disease patterns, and on eco-touorism) Evolution of Complex Adaptive Systems All complex systems evolve in response to changing boundary conditions and internal dynamics – so known as “Complex Adaptive Systems”. Evolution occurs as the result of three mechanisms linked in complicated ways: Information storage and transmission Mutation (generation of new alternatives for system agents Selection among alternative based on performance given internal states and external boundary conditions Where Complex Adaptive Systems LiveIf too many strong linkages among parts of a system, it cannot adapt; any mutation is rapidly damped out.If not enough linkages, also cannot adapt; mutation can’t be preserved in new system state.Therefore, CASs live between stasis and randomness Human Systems vs. Non-Human Systems (The “Wicked” vs. The “Tame”) Wicked Systems: 1. Policy problems cannot be definitively described 2. There is nothing like an indisputable public good 3. There are no objective definitions of equity
  • 3. 4. Policies for social problems cannot be meaningfully correct or false 5. There are no “solutions”in the sense of definitive, objective answers 6. There is no optimality Source: H.W.J. Rittel and M. M.Webber, “Dilemmas in a General Theory Planning,” Policy Scenes 4 (1973), pp. 155-169 Policy Implications of Simple (S) vs Complex (C) Systems Function as Displayed by System Information Centralized command-and-control feasible System management by adjusting forcing behavior; command- and-control contraindicated Causality Centralized command-and-control to endpoint (effect) feasible Function Type Policy Implication S Centralized; system is “knowable” C Information diffused throughout the system; some embedded in system structure; system too complex to be “known” S Linear; cause and effect east to determine C Causes and effects cannot be linked in most cases Cannot be sure of actual impact on system of any policy initiative
  • 4. Policy Implications of Simple (S) vs Complex (C) Systems (Cont) Function Type Policy Implication S Predictable and relatively linear C Highly non-linear and may be discontinuous; not predictable a priori S Rational centralized control is possible and effective C Causes and effects cannot be linked in most cases Single, fully responsible entity with authoritarian power can control system (e.g., U.S. EPA) Response to Forcing Rigid regulatory structures both o.k. (because out come predictable) and politically preferable (because can’t be gamed) Policy once in place must be very flexible, so can be changed as systems response dictates: arbitrariness and gaming avoided by adherence to appropriate set of metrics Responsible management entity adjusts forcing functions (e.g., taxes or fees) and monitor results; direct control of system towards endpoint eschewed metrics Function as Displayed by System Control Mechanisms Policy Implications of Simple (S) vs Complex (C) Systems (Cont)
  • 5. S May not be necessary because performance measured by attaining endpoint, not system state C Defined in process or performance terms, and not fixed because the constantly evolving nature of the system Endpoints are metrics Manage process to improve performance against metrics; metrics critical to public/political acceptance of management process; choice of appropriate set of metrics essential to policy evaluate and subject to improvement as well Metrics Function Type Policy Implication S Defined as static terms, and achievable, not path dependent C Defined in process or performance terms, and not fixed because of constantly evolving nature of systems Endpoint Command-and-control management to endpoint o.k. No defined endpoint; manage system to achieve desired emergent behavior Function as Displayed by System Policy Implications of Simple (S) vs Complex (C) Systems (Cont) Function Type Policy Implication S
  • 6. Produce endpoint C Maintain system stability and integrity over time Existence Can minimize specific insult (e.g., lead dispersion from use in gasoline); cannot lead to or support achievability of sustainability Policy focus as a whole must be on system, not arbitrary components; metrics focus on stability and systems dynamics, not throughput Function as Displayed by System Complex System Case Study: Water Water as Earth System: What is it?It is a materialIt is a commodity (a material that can be owned)It is a legal construct – “water rights”It is a cultural construct – “water as human right”It is a technological construct (technology makes “potable water” from “sewage”) * Water as Earth SystemIt is transport (in Roman empire, estimates that moving a given load 1 mile by oxcart = 5.7 miles by river = 57 miles by sea) Development economics theorizes
  • 7. that inland countries are disadvantaged because of lack of access to ocean shippingThe railroad made up for this later in some countries It is energyIt is political power (cf. water wars) Essential for life (critical environmentally) Dada from A. Beattie, 2009, False Economy, London: Penguin)) * Water as Earth SystemIt is something that can be used, but not used up (form and quality matter) Availability in a particular circumstance is a matter of pricepoint, infrastructure and power, not “natural” constraints. Distribution challenges arise from transitional regimes (e.g., climate change, technology and infrastructure design and construction) and cultural regimes (e.g., water as “human right” must be economically free) Traditional definitions fail (e.g., factory beef from stem cells as “water technology”) * Water as Earth SystemLike all critical earth systems, it can be weaponized (cf: food as weapon in Darfur) It is provided, traded, and sold both as a material (“water”) and as embedded in other products (“virtual water”)
  • 8. * Embedded Water Content of Selected Items Based on Gradel and Allenby, Industrial Ecology and Sustainable Engineering, 2010, Prentice-Hall; A.Y. Hoekstra and A.K. Chapagain, Water footprints of nations: Water use by people as a function of their consumption pattern, Water Resources Management, 21, 35–48, 2007ProductEmbedded water content (liters)1 microchip (2 g) 321 sheet of A4-size paper (80 g/m2) 101 slice of bread (30 g)401 potato (100 g)251 cup of coffee (125 ml)1401 bag of potato crisps (190 g)1851 hamburger (150 g)2,400Embedded Water Content, liters per gram16.125 (liters/m2)1.33.251.12 (l/ml).9716
  • 9. * Embedded Water80% of embedded water in global trade is in agricultural goods¾ in crops¼ in animal productsBut beef is single largest component of virtual water flow at 13% of global VW, compared with 11% for soybeans and 9% for wheat, because . . .To produce:1 ton of vegetables requires about 1,000 cubic meters of water1 ton of wheat requires about 1,450 cubic meters1 ton of beef requires 42,500 cubic meters * Water as Earth System WATER SYSTEMS Production Technologies Nitrogen Cycle Carbon Cycle
  • 10. Phosphorous Cycle Biodiversity Recycling Technologies Treatment Technologies Efficient Use Options Agriculture Global Trade WATER ECONOMICS Culture/Law OTHER TECHNOLOGY SYSTEMS EARTH SYSTEMS USUAL FOCUS OF WATER POLICY Human Health * Institutional Time/Population Space
  • 11. (log/log scales) 0 3 -1 1 2 -1 -2 Time 1 10 5 15 20 Small Group or Individual Decisions Policy, Contract Law Constitution Culture Religion-Technology Systems (coupled vs uncoupled) Traditions and Values Fads Population Involved Source: Based on L.H. Gunderson, C. S. Holling, and S. S. Light, “Barriers broken and bridges built”, in L. H. Gunderson, C.S. Holling, and S. S. Light, eds., Barriers and Bridges (New York, Columbia University Press: 1995), p. 521
  • 12. Human Psychology and Natural Systems Scale 102 104 106 108 1010 1012 10-1 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 1 hour 1 day 1 month 1 year 1 century 1 millennium Wind Velocity Human Transportation Person House Livermore United States Circ of earth
  • 13. Personal garbage Tornados The Tides Thunderstorms Dump Faults Aquifers Ponds, Lakes Storms Jet streams Meters Seconds Human psychological horizon System Structure Over Different Time Scales Time Scale Endogenous
  • 14. Exogenous Principal Implementation Mechanism Principal R&D Component Integration of Natural and Artifactual Systems Short Term (ca. 5 years) Medium Term (ca. 5-10 years) Long Term (ca. 10-100 years) Incremental technology evolution within existing major technology systems Evolution of product and process technology systems, marginal cultural change Significant evolution of major technology systems; link between quality of life and material consumption; population levels; most aspects of culture Population level, cultural change Population level, significant cultural change Almost nothing Policy Changes in legal structures, disciplinary assumptions, based on industrial ecology Metrics, changes in fundamental conservative cultural systems (e.g., religion) Short term industrial ecology R&D (e.g., Design for Environment, Integrated Pest Management) Industrial ecology infrastructure (e.g., environmentally preferable materials database) Industrial ecology systems (e.g., resource and energy maps of communities and regions) Experimental stage involving small systems (e.g., bioreactors, drug production in genetically engineered sheep) Partial integration of biological and engineered systems (e.g., commercial energy from biomass; engineered wetlands for flood, pollution control, and waste processing) Management of integrated regional and global systems (e.g., water cycles in Yellow River watershed or Southwestern United States); Earth Systems Engineering