The document discusses project management and impact evaluation. It defines a project, outlines the project cycle which includes identification, preparation, appraisal, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. It discusses why projects fail and types of projects. Logical framework analysis and cost-benefit analysis are presented as tools for project planning, implementation and evaluation. Impact evaluation aims to determine if a project achieved its intended effects by estimating what would have occurred without the project.

1. Project Management
John Mburu
Department of Agricultural Economics,
University of Nairobi

2. THE PROJECT CONCEPT
• A project represents a particular set of choices
(or interventions) over time to move from a
present situation to an envisaged future
situation
• In essence a project is an instrument of change

3. DEFINITION OF A PROJECT
• “A proposal for capital investments where a
cost stream results in a certain flow of
benefits over a specified period” (FAO)
• “An investment asset from which we can
expect to realize benefits over an extended
period of time”- (Gittinger, 1982)
• “A proposal for capital investments to create
opportunities for producing goods and
services.”

4. GENERAL TYPES OF PROJECTS
• Privately financed projects,
including private businesses
• Government (public) projects
(initiatives)

5. CLASSIFICATION OF DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS
Functional classification:
•Projects aimed at technical innovation
•Expanding the natural resource base
•Improvement in the living conditions of
previously disadvantaged groups
• Improved market infrastructure
•Institutional capacity development
•Multifunctional investment projects
•Policy and institutional reforms

6. WHY DO PROJECTS FAIL?
• A lack of ownership and responsibility
• Problems of project design and implementation
• The use of inappropriate technology
• Inadequate or inappropriate infrastructure
• Failure to appreciate the social and political
environment
• Administrative problems
• Changing economic situations and market
conditions
• Externally driven project initiatives
• Problems related to poor analysis
• Unrealistic expectations
• Unsupportive policy environment

7. PROJECT CYCLE

8. Project Cycle
Identification – conceptualization
Preparation – objectives and activities required to
achieve objectives
Appraisal – evaluation of alternative options and
actions (ex-ante analysis)
Approval/rejection (decision making)
Implementation
Investment period
Development period
Monitoring
Completion
Evaluation (ex-post analysis) including impact
assessment

9. •
RESEARCH PROJECTS VS DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS
•Research project
DIAGNOSIS
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
Policy & Planning
Institutional (screening ex- On-station
issues ante) experimentation
Assessment
On-farm
experimentation Modification/re-
(on-going) planning
Assessment (ex-post)
Modification/re-
planning
Recommendations
Wider dissemination

10. •Development Project
Identification
Preparation and Analysis
Appraisal
Implementation
Evaluation and Impact

11. IDENTIFICATION

12. IDENTIFICATION (DIAGNOSIS)
Finding potentially fundable projects
Sources
Technical specialists
Local leaders
Politicians
Existing projects
Sector studies
Communities

13. Aspects To Consider in Project
Planning & Assessment
Technical aspects (physical input-output of
goods and services)
Institutional - Organizational - Managerial
aspects (including customs, tenure, local
organizations, cultural setting)
Social aspects (Broader social implications -
resource and income distribution, employment
opportunities)
Commercial and Business aspects (securing
supplies, market demand)

14. Aspects To Consider in Project
Planning & Assessment (Cont.)
Financial aspects
Economic aspects (Economic
efficiency, deals with costs and
benefits)
Environmental aspects
(biological and physical effects)
Socio-cultural aspects

15. Logical Framework
Analysis
(LFA)

16. Logical Framework Analysis
(LFA
• What is LFA?
– A designing approach that can be used for
planning, designing, implementing and
evaluating projects or programmes
• Steps in LFA
– Situation Analysis
– Strategy Analysis
– Project Planning Matrix
– Implementation

17. Situation Analysis
(1) Stakeholder Analysis
(2 ) Problem Analysis
(3 ) Objective Analysis

18. 1) Stakeholder Analysis
– Who are the stakeholders involved in the
project, and how are they affected?
• Consider the following:
– Who will be involved in the log-frame
development?
– Where will the development be
conducted?
– Who will facilitate the development of the
log-frame?
– What background materials, papers and
expertise may be needed?
– What materials and logistics are required?

19. (2) Problem Analysis
Which are the problems the
project is addressing?
What are the root causes of those
problems?
What is the larger picture in
which those problems and their
root causes exist?
-What are the links between the
problems?

20. Problem Analysis (cont’d)
Problem Tree
• Brainstorming techniques can be used
to identify the main problems
• After all of the problems are displayed
they should then be clustered into
groups of similar issues
• The problem tree is developed by:
1. moving problems from the clusters of
problems
2. adding new problems that emerge
3. problems can be moved up or down the
tree as required

21. (2) Problem Analysis:
Example of a Problem Tree: one main problem
(EFFECT) a series of lower order problems
(CAUSE)

22. 3) Objectives Analysis
• ... a procedure for systematically
– 1. identifying
– 2. categorising
– 3. specifying
– 4. balancing out ...objectives of all parties
involved in a specific situation
• Objectives Tree
– 1. Problems are restated as objectives
– 2. Positive mirror image of the problem
tree

23. (3) Objective Analysis:
Example of an Objectives Tree: top of the tree is the
END desired, lower levels are the MEANS to the end
MDS 521 IRUNGU 2011

24. Strategy Analysis
• Searching for and deciding on solutions
• Follows the problems and objectives
analysis
• Prerequisite to designing action strategies
Conducting a Strategy Analysis:
1. Ordering sequence of the problem and
objective trees
2. Clustering objectives
3. Feasibility of different interventions
4. Continuous task in project management

25. The process of strategy formulation
25

26. Strategy Analysis
MDS 521 IRUNGU 2011

27. Project Planning Matrix
(logframe matrix):
• Developed from the strategy analysis
by filling in the columns of the matrix
as shown

28. Narrative Objectively Means of Important
Summary Verifiable Verification Assumptions
(intervention logic) Indicators
GOALS / Measures of goal Various sources of Goal / Purpose
OBJECTIVES achievement information, linkages
methods
used
PROJECT End of project Various sources of Output / Purpose
PURPOSE status information, linkages
methods
used
OUTPUTS / Magnitudes of Various sources of Input / Output
RESULTS outputs, information, linkages
planned completion methods
dates used
INPUTS / Types/levels of Project data, other Initial Assumptions
ACTIVITIES resources, starting sources of regarding the
dates information causality
of the programme

29. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION
• Operational phase of a project to
achieve the expected outputs/results
• Plan of Operations
work plans / work schedules
project budget / resources plans
personnel plans
material and equipment plan /
procurement plan / staff training plans

30. PROJECT MONITORING
AND EVALUATION

31. WHAT IS MONITORING?
Day-to-day follow up of activities during
implementation to measure progress and
identify deviations
Routine follow up to ensure activities are
proceeding as planned and are on schedule
Routine assessment of activities and results
Answers the question, “what are we doing?”

32. TYPES OF MONITORING
• Progress
– How much was achieved?
– When was it achieved?
– How was it achieved?
– At what cost?
• Process
– What happens?
– Why?

33. KEY STEPS IN PROGRESS
MONITORING
1. Establishing the monitoring
unit/system
2. Situation review and selecting key
project process and indicators
3. Observing key processes
4. Reflecting on /analysis of results
5. Follow-up action

34. WHAT IS EVALUATION?
Episodic assessment of overall
achievement and impacts
Systematic way of learning from experience
to IMPROVE current activities and
promote better planning for future
action
Designed specifically with intention to
attribute changes to intervention itself
Answers the question, “what have we
achieved and what impact have we
made”

35. WHY EVALUATE?
Determines program effectiveness ,
efficiency, relevance and
sustainability
Shows impact
Strengthens financial responses and
accountability
Promotes a learning culture focused
on service improvement
Promotes replication of successful
interventions (replicability)

36. MONITORING vs EVALUATION
MONITORING VS EVALUATION
Monitoring Evaluation
Continuous: day-to-day Periodic: important milestones
Documents progress In-depth analysis of achievements
Focuses on inputs and outputs Focuses on outcomes and impacts
Alerts managers to problems Provides managers with strategy
and policy options
Self-assessment External analysis

37. MONITORING AND EVALUATION
M&E Framework
Level Description Frequency
Inputs Resources that are put into the project. Lead to Continuous
the achievement of the outputs
Outputs Activities or services that the project is providing. Quarterly
Outputs lead to outcomes
Outcomes Changes in behaviors or skills as a result of the (short to medium
implemented project. Outcomes are anticipated term)
to lead to impacts
Impacts Measurable changes e.g. creation of 3-5 years
employment or improved health, in the target (long term)
group and the community in general

38. MONITORING SYSTEM
• In order to carry out monitoring properly,
it is essential to create a system to
control the flow of information
• The system should ensure that they
define the key information needed,
collect it and disseminate to the groups
of people who need it (eg the decision
makers)
• The system should therefore include
procedures for gathering the info and for
feedback

39. Four components of a
monitoring system
Collection of Aggregation
information and analysis
Feedback Decision

40. Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E)
Types of evaluation
Type Purpose
Formative Initial assessment of the target populations and
contextual environment. Determines concept and design
Process Seeks to identify the extent to which planned activities
have been achieved and assesses the quality of the
activities/services
Outcome Examines specific program outcomes and
accomplishments. What changes were observed, what
does it mean, and if changes are a result of the
interventions?
Impact Gauges the program’s overall impact and effectiveness.
Aims to strengthen design and replication of effective
programs and strategies

41. EVALUATION QUESTIONS
• Evaluation questions are usually based on
the evaluation criteria
– Relevance
– Effectiveness
– Efficiency
– Impact
– Sustainability
– Replicability /up scaling (if a pilot project)

42. IMPACT
ANALYSIS/EVALUATION OF
DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS

43. OVERVIEW OF IMPACT ANALYSIS
• The impacts of a project are
positive or negative effects brought
about by the project
• Is there a likelihood of the overall
goal, or the intended positive
results being achieved by the
project?
• The impacts need to be assessed
across a wide range of viewpoints

44. DIMENSIONS OF PROJECT ANALYSIS

45. IMPACT EVALUATION
• Determines if the program had the desired
effects on individuals, households, and
institutions, and if those effects can be
attributed to the program intervention.
• This requires estimating the counterfactual,
what would have happened had the project
never taken place.
• This is done through a comparison or
control group; those who do not participate
in the program, i.e., ‘with’ and ‘without’
project comparisons.

46. IMPACT EVALUATION: with and
without project comparisons

47. COST BNEFIT
ANALYSIS (CBA) AS A
TOOL FOR PROJECT
APPRAISAL/EVALUATI
ON

48. OVERVIEW OF CBA
• Often high magnitudes of different
categories of costs (including transaction
costs) are incurred in projects
• These costs should be quantified and
compared with the potential or actual
gains (benefits)
• This is done in a CBA which could be
conducted ex ante and ex post
• With ‘with’ and ‘without’ project
comparisons ones needs to calculate the
incremental net benefit cash flow

49. STEPS (STRUCTURE) OF A CBA
1. Define the project:
– what kind of resources are being reallocated?
– Who (the population) are gainers and losers over which
costs and benefits are to be aggregated, what is their level
of operation?
2. Which project impacts/consequences are
relevant or economically important, while
considering
3. Identifying positive and negative
impacts/consequences
– Include also unpriced impacts or externalities
– Exclude transfer payments effects- changes of indirect
taxes, additional unemployment benefits becoming
payable, etc. These are merely redistributed in the
government system
– Determine the physical amounts of the impacts and when
in time they occur

50. STEPS OF A CBA (CONT’D)
4. Monetary
valuation of economic benefits and
economic costs
– Predict prices for cash flows extending into the future. A real rate of
discount should be used
– Correct market prices where necessary. Shadow prices may be used
to reflect true resources scarcity. Consider: imperfect competition,
government intervention in the market, and the likelihood of absence
of markets
– Calculate prices (relative values in common units) where none exists
5. Apply the decision criteria

51. 5. Apply the decision criteria (cont’d)
NPV>0; B/C>1; largest IRR above cut-off rate (many projects can
give multiple IRRs from the same data set and cannot decide
among many projects)
Income redistribution issues are not considered. This needs political
processes

52. STEPS OF A CBA (cont’d)
6. Conduct sensitivity analysis
– Mainly due to uncertainty: adjust the predictions and assumptions
made