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Dr. Mark Constas, Cornell University, #2021ReSAKSS - Plenary Session IV–Measurement Issues
This document discusses measuring progress toward goals in the Malabo Declaration in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. It proposes a health systems sensitive resilience index to supplement existing indicators. The approach develops a resilience capacities index considering health systems capacity and economic/country factors. Results show regional differences and rank country resilience. Incorporating this index with an existing Malabo indicator shifts some country rankings. The author concludes replicating high-resilience models and early identification of vulnerable countries could help direct resources to avert crises.
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Dr. Mark Constas, Cornell University, #2021ReSAKSS - Plenary Session IV–Measurement Issues
- 1. Mark A. Constas AssociateProfessor of Applied Economics & Policy Cornell University
- 2. Measuring Progress Towardthe Malabo Declaration Goals in the Midst of COVID-19 A Measurement Approach for a Health Systems Sensitive Resilience Index Mark A. Constas Cornell University Max Wohlgemuth Cornell University & the World Food Programme John Ulimwengu International Food Policy Research Institute November 16, 2021 Presented to the 2021 ReSAKSS conference
- 3. Graphic Preface: Focuson Vaccine Rates* G7 Countries Sub-Saharan Africa by Region *Based on data from theWorld HealthOrganization’s Global HealthObservatory,July 2021 “The lowest rate of vaccine administration in a G7 country is nearly ten time greater than the vaccine rate in the highest region of Africa”
- 4. Presentation Overview • Introduction •Framing the chapter & presentation • Context, motivation, & purpose • Basic empirical approach • Conceptual model & data • Results • Region and by country • Conclusions • Next steps +
- 5. Framing of thePresentation & Chapter • Context: Malabo Declaration Goals - Focus on Resilience • Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development (CAADP) Results Framework • Limited use of health-focused indicators (e.g., food safety) • Broad Motivation • How might reporting on the progress made toward the Malabo Declaration better reflect the effects of a global health shock such as COVID-19? • Purpose • Explore how indicators related to reporting on country-level progress toward the resilience component of the Malabo Declaration goals may be supplemented by metrics that reflect sensitivity to COVID-19 Resilience Ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt, or transform in the face of shocks Theoretical Perspective
- 6. Basic Empirical Approach ConceptualModel & Data Sources Health Systems Resilience Capacity (HSC) Economic & Country Resilience Capacity (ECRC) • Trade Dependency • Supply chain efficiency • Country fragility • Vaccine rate • Hospital bed density • Medical professionals density Stage 1 Develop a resilience capacities index in the context of global heath shock (RCIGHS ) RCIGHS = f (HSC, ECRC) Stage 2 Combine RCIGHS with a Malabo indicator to examine distribution of a Malabo referenced index MRCIGHS African Agriculture Transformation Scorecard (AATS)
- 7. Brief Results COVID-19 &AATS • Part I: Using RCIGHS = f (HSC, ECRC) • Regional results • Based on composite score • Country level results • Based on individual distributions • Part II: Using RCIGHS = f (HSC, ECRC) with Malabo-based (M) indicator • Country ranking results with and without Malabo/AATS climate investment indicator • Rank order switching between RCIGHS and MRCIGHS Resilience Ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt, or transform in the face of shocks
- 8. Results Part I: HealthSystems Capacity and Economic & Country Resilience Regional Focus Country Focus
- 9. Results Part II ResilienceCapacities Index to Global Health Shocks Presented by Cumulative Ranking
- 10. Resilience Capacities Index& Climate Change Investment Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 With AATS Climate Indicator • Ghana • Rwanda • Namibia • Uganda • Burkina Faso Without AATS Climate Indicator • South Africa • Namibia • Botswana • Gabon • Kenya Malabo Referenced Resilience Capacities Index to Global Health Shocks (MRCIGHS)Presented by Cumulative Ranking MRCI GHS Tentative resilience threshold
- 11. Conclusions Implications of theExploratory Study • Replicating Effective Resilience Capacities • Understanding the ability of countries with higher resilience capacities to respond to COVID-19 may provide models that can be replicated in other countries in the continent. • Early Warning Potential • The early identification of countries with the lowest capacity to respond to global health shocks may help formulate policies and direct investments to avert humanitarian disasters • Future Work • There is potential value in a broad, sustained program of research that examines how the impacts of global health shocks may be incorporated into reporting on agricultural productivity and reporting the Malabo Declaration goals and more broadly on resilience “The protracted nature of the global pandemic highlights the importance of including indicators that are sensitive to global health shocks as part of the Malabo Declaration’s monitoring and evaluation system.”