Presented by Charlotte MacAlister (IWMI) at the Africa Rising Quick Water Early Win Project Final Workshop, Addis Ababa, 14 September 2012.

1. Quick Water: Update on the water related indicators
for sustainable crop-livestock intensification planning
in Ethiopia ‘early win’ project
Charlotte MacAlister (IWMI)
Africa Rising Quick Water Early Win Project
Final Workshop, Addis Ababa, 14 September 2012

2. • Introduction to Africa Rising
• Introduction to Quick Water approach: scope and objectives
• Methodology for development of intensification trajectories in Ethiopia
• Ethiopian context: development and intensification planning and policy
background from food for work/MERIT to FEWsnet
• Selection of trajectories and indicators for Ethiopia
• Roundtable discussion and feedback
• Mapping trajectories-indicators and development of toolbox
• Demonstration of tool
• Roundtable testing of toolbox
• Feedback and future development

4. Management Structure
Program Research Framework Program Coordination Team
Task Force (IITA, ILRI, IFPRI, USAID)
Information/data Systems Team Communications Team
(IFPRI) (ILRI, USAID)
West Africa Project
Ethiopian Highlands Project E&SA Project
Steering Committee
Steering Committee (ILRI) Steering Committee (IITA)
(IITA)
FY2012 Activities
1. Program design 2. Quick Win projects

5. Africa RISING
Program Purpose and Objectives
Provide pathways out of hunger and poverty for small holder families,
particularly for women and children, through sustainably intensified farming
systems that sufficiently improve food, nutrition, and income security and
conserve or enhance the natural resource base.
• Identify demand-driven sustainable intensification options that are socially
acceptable, economically feasible, and environmentally sound
• Combine and adapt these options to address constraints and exploit
opportunities.
• Evaluate their effectiveness at multiple scales.
• Catalyze ongoing sustainable farm intensification.

6. Africa RISING
Program Outcomes
• Whole farm productivity
• Natural resource management
• Connect to markets & input suppliers
• Nutrition and poverty, especially women and
children
• Economic & environmental resilience

8. Africa RISING
Beyond tradeoffs?
• Increase above- and below-ground biomass to improve soil
health & system productivity (e.g., fertilizer trees, legumes, N/P
fertilization)
• Diversification (crop & enterprise) for greater resilience,
productivity, and nutrition
• Integrating livestock and mechanization into conservation
agriculture
• Improve water productivity to reduce risk & enhance investment

9. Africa RISING
Quick Wins in the Ethiopian Highlands:
• Improving the evidence for targeting agricultural management interventions
in Ethiopia
• Targeting research design for technology integration at farm scale
• Sustainable tree-crop-livestock intensification as a pillar for the Ethiopian
climate resilient green economy
• Regionalizing fertilizer rate recommendation for wheat-teff production
systems
• Fodder and feed as a key opportunity for driving sustainable intensification of
crop-livestock systems
• Improving productivity and rural livelihoods of smallholder farmers in the
Bale highlands by integrating pulses in crop-livestock production systems

10. Why Agricultural Intensification in Ethiopia?
6
5
4
3
T/ha
2
1
0
Malawi Ethiopia Nigeria Uganda Mali Mozambique
Average national yield Average yield from on-farm demonstration

11. Objective: to provide a tool which can be used to support the spatial
targeting of agricultural intensification practices to areas where the
biophysical and livelihood conditions are likely to sustain long term
development. Water is the entry point.
Project scope and limitations: proof of concept/demonstration of what is
possible; short term project with limited time/resources
Team: Economist/policy – Gebre; Crop specialist – Teklu; Livestock – Amare;
Water – Charlotte; Spatial – Catherine/Yenenesh/An/Abisalom
Process: identification of trajectories and indicators; consultation with line
agencies at regional level– feedback on both
Development of simple tool which produces national maps of selected
trajectories and targets

12. Some key challenges to making intensification sustainable:
• Do agricultural intensification initiatives account for water
centered issues?
• Is there consistency across different initiatives / policies
locally and nationally?
• Are the indicators for agricultural intensification planning
strategies based on local and global experience?
• Are ongoing intensification efforts embedded in the
livelihood of local communities?

13. Identifying Development Trajectories for Ethiopia:
Principles

14. Identifying Development Trajectories for Ethiopia:
Process

15. Identifying Development Trajectories for Ethiopia:
Process

16. Global Development of Land Use Planning
Approaches Key indicators Comments
Land capability Soil, landscape, land use/land cover, hydrology, Lacks social & environmental
assessment climate dimensions
Agro-ecological Mainly climatic parameters & associated
zones agricultural practices
Land suitability Land cover, climate, soil, topography, land uses, Target certain use types
analysis distance to village, streams & springs, cost-benefit
analysis
Land suitability Based on geography, production & markets, i.e. Includes some social dimensions
& livelihood includes livelihood assets & land suitability
zoning
Vulnerability & Indicators related to exposure, sensitivity & Similar to land suitability &
resilience to adaptive capacity livelihood but incorporates global
climate change CC phenomena
Development Agricultural potential, access to markets, Includes socio-economic
domains population density indicators; Targeting broad,
generic development strategies

17. Identifying Development Trajectories for Ethiopia:
Process

18. Introduction:
• The history of planned agricultural development in Ethiopia goes back to
the late 19th century with the introduction of agricultural innovation
systems of better farming practices and new tree species.
• Since then, agricultural modernization undergone several stages with
some disruptions (such as the Italian occupation).
• During the 1960s, the modernization process was mainly based on elites’
(landlord) commercial farms followed by the command economy that
discouraged private investment during the 1970s and 1980s.
• Following the change of government in 1991, most strategies focused on
the balance between poverty reduction, economic development and
equity.
• As stipulated in the PASDEP, the agricultural development strategy
revolves around the intensification of marketable farm products.
• In line with the development strategies, different programs and projects
have been initiated which some of them are reviewed as follows.

19. MERET: Land Regeneration In Ethiopia
• Response to the drought and famine of 1973/74 in the northern part of
the country.
• Gradually shifted to development program with the objective of linking
short-term food assistance with long-term development opportunities and
sustainable livelihoods.
• Supports more than 50 activities and technical packages implemented in
chronically food-insecure areas
• Participants are from food-insecure households.
• The project provides opportunities through long-term food security
measures, but is limited to a specified range of livelihood systems.

20. Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development
to End Poverty - PASDEP (1)
Main objectives of PASDEP:
• Accelerate the transformation of the subsistence smallholder
agriculture.
• Increased productivity and share of marketed production.
• Support to pro-poor basic agriculture within the framework of the
national food security program.
• Smallholder capacity building through training, development and
adoption of a high yielding technology.

21. PASDEP (2)
• Strengthened agricultural research and extension service delivery
mechanisms
• Promotion of increased diversification of agriculture through high value
added commodities
• Promotion of commercialization of agriculture and establishment of a
marketing system
• Development of small-scale irrigation and water harvesting technologies
and sustainable use/management of natural resources.

22. PASDEP (3)
Recognized three main agro-ecological zones based on rainfall, land type and
altitude to respond to the particular conditions:
Zone 1: High rainfall areas
• Efficient utilization of available rainwater for improved agricultural
production with a special emphasis on high value crops for export.
• Natural resources conservation, agro-forestry and livestock
development.
Zone 2: Moisture stress areas
• Food security measures and increased off-farm income opportunities.
• Soil and water conservation livestock resources development (small
ruminants) and small-scale irrigation.
Zone 3: Pastoral areas
• Livestock production and marketing was given importance.

23. Agricultural Growth Program (AGP)
• Food security and poverty reduction remains at the heart of agriculture
and water resources development.
• Gradual shift to high-value crops, promoting niche high-value export
crops.
• Facilitates the commercialization of agriculture where it is feasible .
• Integrates farmers with both local and global markets.
• Although AGP uses relatively comprehensive indicators (both bio-physical
and socio-economic), focus is given to selected high-potential areas.

24. Sustainable Land Management (SLM)
• Parallel to the AGP, the Sustainable Land Management (SLM) program was
crafted to ensure sustainability of the natural resource base focusing on
the high potential less degraded areas.
• Unlike the MERET project that operates in degraded and food insecure
areas, SLM targets the food secured and less degraded areas, but food
security is still the major objective

25. Growth Corridors
Regional focus, based largely on resource endowment.
For example:
• Tigray Region has delineated the Raya Valley-Humera lowland growth
corridors based on their ground and surface water potentials.
• Oromia regional state acknowledge that the lowland parts of the region
are vulnerable to recurrent droughts but supposed to have sufficient
surface/ground water and good development potential .
• Amhara followed different approach to classify the region into six growth
corridors/poles (namely Central, Eastern, North-West, South-West, Tana-
Beles and Tekeze catchments) .
• In general the growth corridor approach was based on water and water
based investment potentials.

26. AgWater Solutions Project
• Water as the entry point.
• Addresses pro-poor needs rather than on the development of
potentially suitable areas/resources.
• Different people in different places have different needs.
• Demand for investment in water likened to availability of water
and needs.
• Livelihood mapping was essentially based on three criteria, hence
it is likely to reach at different livelihood settings if other criteria
are considered.

27. Gap Analysis (1)
The gap analysis is based on the following principles:
• Whether agricultural intensification initiatives in Ethiopia are planned with
the perception of water centered problems and sustainable intensification
trajectories
• Whether there is consistencies across different initiatives in terms of
indicators used to plan and monitor the intensification process and paths
to make the exchange of information between projects simpler
• Whether these indicators for agricultural intensification planning and post
implementation monitoring are drawn based on global experiences
• Whether the ongoing efforts of intensification embedded the livelihood
of local community into agricultural intensification process.

28. Gap Analysis (2)
• Almost all programs and projects have targeted agricultural production
and poverty reduction.
• Water as entry point has been given due emphasis in all
projects/programs
• They lack consistency in terms of livelihood systems.
• PASDEP: indicators used to characterize livelihood zones were mainly bio-
physical characteristics with little consideration to socio-economic
characteristics.
• PASDEP and Agwater solution project were more comprehensive to
address all production/livelihood systems
• Livestock as livelihood system did not come bold except in PASDEP

29. Gap Analysis (3)
In terms of trajectories:
• MERET project targets degraded and chronically food insecure areas
where soil and water conservation is the main intervention.
• AGP aims to transform the agricultural sector from subsistance to
surplus production.
• AGP overlooks the individual potential of different areas given a
limited investment capacity implying that priority must be given to
high return investments.
• Unlike MERET, SLM targets less fragile areas.
• AgWater Solutions project identified different trajectories based on
which of the 17 livelihood systems were suggested.

30. Identifying Development Trajectories for Ethiopia:
Process

31. Description of the selected trajectories and key indicators: 1-4
Trajectories Description Some key indicators
Integrated Natural Resources Soil erosion and nutrient depletion Soil erosion rate and extent of
Conservation based crop- is the major focus area affected
livestock systems Crop, livestock and trees are Human and livestock population
intensification system components with a
number of sub trajectories
Small-Scale Irrigation Based Highly populated area with access Potential suitable areas
Crop-Livestock Intensification to surface or ground water for Market access
irrigation with access to market
Large-Scale Irrigation Based Areas with large irrigable land Potential suitable areas
Crop-Livestock Intensification (>3000 hectares), with high value Market access and roads
commercial or industrial crops,
where crops and livestock are
major components
Agro-Pastoral Rainfed Based Receives sufficient rainfall, soil is Amount of rainfall, human and
Crop-Livestock Intensification relatively deep and fertile, crop, livestock population, land use
livestock and trees are major land cover
components

32. Description of the selected trajectories and key indicators: 5-8
Trajectories Description Some key indicators
Pastoral Livestock Based Livestock are the major components Aridity index, LGP, availability of
Intensification where feed, water, veterinary surface water
services and market are major issues Human and livestock population
Peri-Urban Dairy Based Crop- Dairy, fattening and vegetable Access to market
Livestock Intensification farming on small plots are the major
components; poultry may also be
integrated
Vertisol Management Based Water logged vertisol areas receiving Area covered by vertisols and
Intensification high rainfall, especially where annual precipitation
temperature is mild to induce high
evaporation. Crop and livestock are
both major components.
Rainfed commercial farming Extensive arable land sparsely Rainfall, human population
intensification in crop- populated and receiving sufficient density, and land use land cover
livestock systems rainfall, where commercial/high value (protected areas)
and industrial crops are suitable

33. Description and reason for selection of indicators / proxies
Trajectory Indicator / proxy Simplified reason for selection
Soil & water conservation erosion rate Major process of land degradation
in crop livestock systems population density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demand
livestock density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demand
Small-medium scale irrigable area OR Area suitable for irrigation (potential for small/ medium)
irrigation in crop livestock presence of shallow ground water (15-20m) Based on geological data
systems protected forest area Avoid protected forest areas
access to market Necessary for sale of cash crop and access to inputs
Rainfed smallholder minimum annual rainfall Sufficient rainfall present
intensification in crop- maximum annual rainfall Sufficient rainfall present
livestock systems or agro- protected forest area Avoid protected forest areas
pastoralist systems population density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demand
Large scale irrigation potential large scale irrigation Area suitable for large scale irrigation (>3000ha)
all-weather roads Necessary for sale of cash crop and access to inputs
Livestock based minimum aridity index Not suitable for crop
intensification maximum aridity index Not suitable for crop
population density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demand
livestock density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demand
Difference: current & potential capacity Difference between current stocking rate and potential capacity
Peri-urban dairy access to market OR Necessary for sale of milk
Addis neighbourhood Largest milk market potential
Vertisol management Vertisol / soil map Vertisol area present
minimum annual rainfall Amount of rainfall above which waterlogging occurs
Rainfed commercial minimum annual rainfall Sufficient rainfall present
farming intensification in maximum annual rainfall Sufficient rainfall present
crop-livestock /agro- protected forest area Avoid protected forest areas
pastoralist systems population density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demand

34. Background to the tool – how
trajectories and indicators can be
turned into maps

35. Transforming indicators into maps
For each indicator spatial
data (geographical layer) is
identified
1 indicator = 1 map
=> Mapping tool box

36. Mapping toolbox
Combines indicator maps into trajectories
Livelihood scale
– Units of observation are livelihood zones
– Links trajectories to livelihoods
– FEWSNET livelihood zone map (180 zones):
Areas within which households (on average) share
similar livelihood patterns
i.e. they have access to the same set of food and
cash income sources and to the same markets

37. The mapping toolbox
Trajectories
Indicator 1 (I1) Indicator 2 (I2) Indicator 3 (I3)
Excel sheet
I1zj> x1 I2zj> x2 I3zj> x3
Spatial processing
1. Aggregates indicator maps to livelihood maps (by zonal statistic)
2. Selects livelihood zones where all of conditions of the indicators are met
Arc GIS
Suitable livelihood zone for a given intensification trajectory

38. Live demonstration of tool

39. Thank-you very much for
your attention!
Let’s work together to make this a
useful product with a whole range of
potential applications

40. http://africa-rising.wikispaces.com/