1. Market Review and Outlook
QE Index and Volume
The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index lost 17.64 points, or 0.17%, during
the shortened trading week, to close at 10,468.59 points. Market
capitalization decreased by 0.02% to reach QR559.4 billion (bn) as
compared to QR559.5bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 42
listed companies, 16 companies ended the week higher while 20 fell
and 6 remained unchanged. Qatar National Cement (QNCD) was the
best performing stock with a gain of 3.72%; the stock is up 4.21% yearto-date (YTD). We believe the stock offers a compelling long-term
growth story and our 12-month price target stands at QR116.25. On
the other hand, Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Company (QCFS)
was the worst performing stock with a decline of 7.53% on only 61
shares traded; the stock is down 28.82% YTD.
10,540
Gulf Drilling International (GDI) an associate of Gulf
International Services (GISS) announced it has signed a
contract with JX Nippon to utilize GDI’s ‘hi-spec premium’ jackup rig Al Khor to drill an exploratory well in 2014. We believe the
news acted as a catalyst and GISS was the biggest contributor to the
QE Index‟s weekly gain. The stock contributed 10.1 points to the
index‟s weekly gain; GISS is up 3.03% week-over-week (WoW) and
104.0% YTD. Ooredoo (ORDS) was the second biggest contributor
adding 7.82 points; the stock has gained 0.88% WoW.
Value Traded (QR mn)
Regional Indices
Qatar (QE)*
Dubai
Abu Dhabi
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Oman
Bahrain
Close
10,468.59
3,144.04
4,103.59
8,412.32
7,609.17
6,794.92
1,207.49
WTD%
MTD%
YTD%
(0.2)
(0.4)
2.6
0.3
(1.2)
0.7
0.1
0.9
6.7
6.6
1.0
(2.3)
1.0
(0.1)
25.2
93.8
56.0
23.7
28.2
18.0
13.3
10,468.59
QE closed on
December 18 and 19
10,430
0
15-Dec
16-Dec
17-Dec
18-Dec
Volume
19-Dec
QE Index
Week ended
Dec 17, 2013
944.8
Week ended
Dec 12, 2013
2,016.7
559,363.7
559,458.1
(0.0)
25.1
63.2
(60.2)
13,668
25,891
(47.2)
40
42
(4.8)
16:20
Market Indicators
24:15
–
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn)
Volume (mn)
Number of Transactions
Companies Traded
Market Breadth
Market Indices
Close
Total Return
14,957.22
All Share Index
2,610.23
Banks/Financial Svcs.
2,485.34
Industrials
3,441.08
Transportation
1,941.44
Real Estate
1,996.41
Insurance
2,361.26
Telecoms
1,470.95
Consumer
5,998.78
Al Rayan Islamic Index
3,066.43
Market Indices
Weekly Index Performance
WTD%
(0.2)
0.0
(0.0)
0.1
0.4
(1.5)
(0.4)
0.6
0.2
(0.4)
Chg. %
(53.2)
MTD%
0.9
1.1
1.6
1.1
(0.1)
0.1
(0.2)
1.1
0.3
1.1
YTD%
32.2
29.6
27.5
31.0
44.8
23.9
20.3
38.1
28.4
23.2
5.0%
2.6%
2.5%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn)
280.09
787.03
548.13
4,346.32
223.46
118.38
2.18
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
153,657.2
69,881.19
115,512.2
458,008.0#
108,766.9
24,406.4
49,767.0##
Kuwait
Dubai
(0.4%) (1.2%)
Qatar
Bahrain
(0.2%)
(2.5%)
Saudi Arabia
The GCC markets remained mixed during the week. Abu Dhabi‟s
benchmark index was the top performer, gaining by 2.6% WoW. The
index registered a 2013 high on Tuesday and is the second best
performer among the GCC indices with a gain of 56.0% YTD. Dubai‟s
benchmark index remains the best performing index with a gain of
93.8% YTD. On the other hand, Kuwait‟s index was the worst
performing, retreating by 1.2% WoW. However, it is still up 28.2%
YTD
6,000,000
10,475.39
Oman
Trading value during the week decreased by 53.15% to reach
QR0.9bn vs. QR2.0bn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial
Services led the trading value during the week, accounting for
31.09% of the total equity trading value. Trading volume decreased
by 60.24% to reach 25.1mn shares vs. 63.2mn shares in the prior
week. The number of transaction fell by 47.21% to reach 13,668
transactions versus 25,891 transactions in the prior week. The Real
Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting for 29.42% of the
total. The significant decline in trading value, trading volume and
number of transactions is due to the shortened trading week.
10,485
Abu Dhabi
On the other hand, Industries Qatar (IQCD) dragged the index
down by 12.50 points during the week. The stock is up 18.79%
YTD. Barwa Real Estate Company (BRES) shaved 8.99 points off the
index during the week. The stock is up 10.56% YTD.
12,000,000
10,526.95
TTM P/E**
P/B**
Dividend Yield
13.4
18.6
11.5
17.2
16.4
10.7
8.1
1.8
1.2
1.4
2.1
1.2
1.6
0.9
4.4
2.8
4.4
3.5
3.7
3.8
4.0
#
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( Data as of Dec. 16, 2013)
Page 1 of 5
2. News
Economic News
the council discussed a draft JV agreement on the Laffan
Refinery 2 and approved a request from Qatar Petroleum in this
regard. (Gulf-Times.com)
MDPS: Qatar’s economy forecasted to grow 6% in 2013 –
According to the report released by the Ministry of Development
Planning & Statistics (MDPS), Qatar's economy is likely to grow
by 6% in 2013, slightly faster than previously forecasted, partly
because of higher gas production. However, Qatar‟s GDP
growth is forecast to ease to 4.6% in 2014 as output from
maturing oil fields contracts and gas production levels out.
However, vigorous investment spending, an expansionary fiscal
stance and a continuing influx of workers will sustain the strong
domestic demand. The report also showed that the government
spending is forecast to rise 10.8% in 2013, 11.6% in 2014 and
reach 30.7% of GDP. (GulfTimes.com)
QCB framing rules for ETF listing – The Qatar Central Bank
(QCB) said it is framing rules to list exchange traded funds
(ETFs) on the local bourse. The rules are being developed in
close coordination with the Qatar Financial Markets Authority
(QFMA), the regulatory body for Qatar Exchange. Meanwhile,
the QCB said it will launch the second phase of the Credit
Bureau project for telecommunication companies and connect
the banking risks system to the justice ministry‟s Real Estate
Registration Department and QE to verify the guarantees
provided. (Peninsula Qatar)
MDPS: Qatar capable of shielding economy from external
shocks – According to the Ministry of Development Planning &
Statistics, Qatar is capable of shielding its economy against any
external risks. Similar to 2012, the main risks to the short and
medium-term outlook come from outside the domestic
economy. The Qatar Central Bank‟s foreign currency reserves,
which stood at QR143bn at the end of September 2013, can
provide ample coverage for the country‟s import needs. The
rising reserves partly reflect the use of hydrocarbon receipts to
fund various investment projects domestically. (GulfTimes.com)
IQCD: Plans for new LDPE facility in early stages –
Industries Qatar (IQCD) confirmed that contrary to reports in
sections of the media, plans for a new LDPE facility in the
group's petrochemical joint venture, Qatar Petrochemical
Company (Qapco), are still in a very early stage of assessment
and that the project is subject to material change, or
cancellation. Furthermore, IQCD confirms that if the project is
approved by the Board of Directors a statement regarding the
expected cost, capacity and commercial launch date will be
provided to the market. (IQCD Press Release)
Ashghal to construct iconic bridges in Doha – The Public
Works Authority (Ashghal) announced that the work on a 12-km
long ambitious infrastructure project comprising three iconic
bridges interconnected by eight-km long subsea tunnels will
begin in 2015 and is expected to be completed by 2021, before
the FIFA World Cup. The project, called Sharq Crossing, will
connect Doha‟s new Hamad International Airport, Katara
Cultural Village in the north and the downtown central business
district of West Bay. (GulfBase.com)
CBQK open to tie-up with local financial firms – The
Commercial Bank of Qatar‟s (CBQK) CEO Abdulla Saleh Al
Raisi said the bank is open for a tie-up with any quality financial
institution operating in Qatar. Al Raisi said, as part of its plan to
establish itself as the country‟s leading financial institution, the
bank has various expansion plans in the local market, including
tying up with local financial institutions. Al Raisi said that the
bank will issue bonds to raise its capital for funding various
mega projects in the coming years. (Qatar Tribune)
Market & Corporate News
Qatari banking sector’s monthly update for November 2013
– Loans declined by 0.1% month-over-month (MoM) but are up
11.9% year to date (YTD). Deposits also dipped by 0.2% MoM
(+16.4% YTD) in the month of November 2013. The banking
sector‟s loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) remained at 107% at the
end of November 2013 vs. 107% in October 2013. Public sector
deposits retreated by 5.0% MoM (+28.1% YTD), while private
sector deposits gained by 3.7% MoM (+15.1% YTD). On the
other hand, the overall loan book exhibited flattish performance
in the month of November. Total domestic public sector loans
declined by 1.1% MoM after a robust performance in October.
On a YTD basis, public sector loans are up 8.8%. (QCB)
Qatar plans to offer shares worth QR50bn – The Supreme
Council for Economic Affairs and Investment (SCEA&I) has
discussed a plan to offer shares worth QR50bn in a number of
state-owned companies to Qatari nationals over a period of 10
years. HE the Minister of Finance, Ali Sherif al-Emadi, who is
also the SCEA&I's Secretary General, said the first phase of
this program would begin with the public subscription offering of
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company (MPHC). Al-Emadi
said HH the Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani has
directed that practical measures be taken for MPHC's
privatization and the allocation of MPHC's shares will be
confined to Qataris alone. Meanwhile, the council meeting also
discussed proposals submitted by the Qatar Central Bank on
the money exchange sector. HH the Emir Sheikh Tamim bin
Hamad al-Thani asked QCB to study the issuance of new
licenses for Qataris to conduct money exchange business.
Moreover, HE the Minister of Finance, Ali Sherif al-Emadi said
QFB set to capitalize on its plan to include commercial
banking – Qatar First Bank (QFB) is all set to capitalize on the
available opportunities across various business lines as part of
strengthening its strategy in view of its moves to include
commercial banking to its portfolio. (Gulf-Times.com)
QFMA receives requests for listings and IPOs – The Qatar
Financial Markets Authority (QFMA) said it has received two
requests for new listings and five requests for launching IPOs.
Meanwhile, the QFMA has adopted the new listing & IPO rules,
which cover various chapters related to definitions, IPO and
listing requirements, disclosure rules, suspension, cancellation
and re-listing of companies. (Peninsula Qatar)
CBQK, CBD to raise $500mn each from syndicated loans –
According to sources, the Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK)
and the Commercial Bank of Dubai (CBD) are raising about
$500mn each from syndicated loans. These facilities will have
tenors of three years and will be used to help pay debt maturing
next year. According to the data compiled by Bloomberg, CBD
has a $450mn, three-year syndicated loan maturing in August
2014 that pays interest of 175 basis points above the LIBOR.
Meanwhile, CBQK has a $455mn loan that is due in February.
(Bloomberg)
GDI, JX Nippon sign rig deal for offshore Qatar – Gulf
Drilling International (GDI) has signed a contract with JX
Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration Qatar (JX Nippon) to utilize GDI‟s
“hi-spec premium” jack-up rig “Al Khor” to drill an exploratory
well in 2014. Earlier in May 2011, JX Nippon signed an
exploration & production sharing agreement covering block A
(Pre-Khuff) with Qatar Petroleum. (Gulf-Times.com)
Page 2 of 5
3. Qatar Exchange
Top 5 Gainers
Top 5 Decliners
0.0%
6.0%
-1.8%
4.0%
-1.3%
-1.8%
-1.3%
-4.0%
3.7%
3.0%
2.3%
2.0%
2.0%
1.6%
-8.0%
Zad Holding
-12.0%
-7.5%
0.0%
Qatar National
Gulf
Cement
International
Services
Aamal
Gulf
Warehousing
Qatar Cinema Widam Food
& Film
Co.
Distribution
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Barwa Real
Estate
Qatar
Qatar
International Electricity and
Islamic Bank
Water
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million)
Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
6.0
105.0
83.6
75.6
73.8
70.0
70.7
67.8
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.2
2.2
35.0
2.2
Barwa Real
Estate
Masraf Al
Rayan
2.0
0.0
0.0
United
Development
QNB Group
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Masraf Al
Rayan
Industries
Qatar
Qatar Gas
Transport
(Nakilat)
United
Vodafone Qatar
Development
Qatar Gas
Transport
(Nakilat)
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Page 3 of 5
4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
It was a short trading week for the Qatari market with only three trading days. The QE index after a positive start to the week, surrendered its gains in the
next two trading sessions. The index tagged a new 52-week high during the week, but was unable to move above its resistance level of 10,550, and pulled
back below the 10,500 level, to close the week at 10,468.59. The RSI, which had been consolidating near the overbought zone over the last few days, has
started to move lower. Further, the RSI has given a negative divergence signal, as the index tagged a new high, but the RSI did not, which is a bearish sign.
In addition, the MACD is below the signal line and is trending lower. Thus, both technical indicators suggest that the index may move down from the current
levels. On the downside, the immediate support is seen at 10,445. The second strong support level is the 21-day moving average (currently at 10385.65).
On the flip side, a close above the 10,530 level may indicate a continuation of the uptrend.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates
between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if
the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the
convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the
MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between
the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day
candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
Page 4 of 5
5. Price % Change 5(Dec 17)
Day
Company Name
174.00
Qatar National Bank
% Change
Monthly
Market Cap.
QR Million
TTM P/E
P/B
Div. Yield
0.00
1.16
121,753
13.2
2.4
3.4
Qatar Islamic Bank
70.00
(0.14)
0.29
16,541
15.3
1.4
5.4
Commercial Bank of Qatar
70.20
(0.71)
2.03
17,371
9.9
1.3
8.5
Doha Bank
57.90
1.58
3.76
14,960
10.1
1.7
7.2
Al Ahli Bank
56.00
0.00
6.67
7,116
13.7
2.1
5.4
Qatar International Islamic Bank
60.40
(1.31)
0.50
9,143
12.8
1.8
5.8
Masraf Al Rayan
33.70
0.00
2.12
25,275
15.1
2.5
3.0
Al Khaliji Bank
19.97
0.35
(0.15)
7,189
13.5
1.3
5.0
National Leasing
30.80
(1.28)
(1.60)
1,524
13.0
1.2
6.5
Dlala Holding
22.30
0.00
3.00
495
N/M
2.2
N/A
Qatar & Oman Investment
12.62
(1.02)
(1.10)
398
26.5
1.2
4.0
Islamic Holding Group
41.70
1.34
5.30
167
22.4
2.9
2.7
221,930
Banking and Financial Services
Zad Holding
69.30
1.61
3.74
907
9.2
0.7
5.8
Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices
14.40
(1.03)
(1.84)
166
N/M
0.9
N/A
Salam International Investment
12.37
(0.08)
(0.72)
1,414
11.0
0.8
5.7
Medicare Group
53.00
(0.19)
(0.93)
1,492
24.3
1.9
3.4
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution
40.50
(7.53)
(8.47)
231
30.9
1.7
4.9
0.70
0.17
18,711
15.6
3.1
3.5
981
16.3
4.0
7.3
2,650
18.2
2.1
6.0
288.00
Qatar Fuel
54.50
Al Meera Consumer Goods
(1.80)
11.68
132.50
Qatar Meat and Livestock
(1.12)
(1.85)
26,552
Consumer Goods and Services
(0.39)
(0.59)
2,000
9.5
1.5
5.9
Qatar National Cement
111.50
50.50
3.72
8.25
5,475
12.9
2.2
5.4
Industries Qatar
167.50
(0.77)
(0.42)
101,338
12.5
3.1
4.6
0.99
3.15
5,085
21.8
2.4
1.8
(1.30)
(1.18)
16,680
11.0
2.9
4.4
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing
40.90
Qatari Investors Group
166.80
Qatar Electricity and Water
Mannai Corp.
87.40
0.11
(0.57)
3,987
8.7
1.7
5.4
Aamal
15.91
2.32
5.93
9,546
15.1
1.5
N/A
Gulf International Services
61.20
3.03
4.44
9,099
15.0
3.2
2.5
153,209
Industrials
Qatar Insurance
66.50
(0.75)
0.00
8,541
10.5
1.8
3.0
Doha Insurance
25.60
1.39
0.39
659
11.7
1.3
3.6
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance
49.50
0.00
(1.00)
2,853
3.3
0.8
1.8
Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance
38.80
(0.51)
(0.51)
663
13.8
1.1
2.1
Qatar Islamic Insurance
58.20
0.69
0.69
873
13.7
3.2
6.0
13,589
Insurance
United Development
23.24
(1.11)
(0.60)
7,837
9.6
0.7
4.3
Barwa Real Estate
30.35
(1.78)
0.66
11,810
17.3
0.9
4.9
Ezdan Real Estate
17.25
0.29
(1.03)
45,756
N/M
1.6
0.8
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development
11.43
(0.78)
(1.47)
1,143
17.3
1.1
5.2
66,546
Real Estate
137.70
0.88
0.95
44,108
16.7
1.8
3.6
11.35
(1.05)
2.25
9,595
N/M
1.6
N/A
Qatar Navigation (Milaha)
86.00
0.00
(3.91)
9,849
10.1
0.8
4.4
Gulf Warehousing
41.50
1.97
1.22
1,974
19.8
2.5
N/A
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat)
Transportation
21.45
0.47
2.88
12,012
15.7
3.4
4.7
Qatar Telecom
Vodafone Qatar
53,703
Telecoms
23,835
Qatar Exchange
559,364
Source: Bloomberg
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar
Ahmed M. Shehada
Keith Whitney
Sahbi Kasraoui
Head of Research
Head of Trading
Head of Sales
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa
ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa
keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa
QNB Financial Services SPC
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar
Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an
offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential
investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be
reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts,
QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right
to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views
and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 5 of 5