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Weekly market report

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Qatar stock exchange - weekly market report

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Weekly market report

  1. 1. ` Page 1 of 6 Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index gained 505.86 points, or 4.46% during the week, to close at 11,347.15. Market capitalization increased by 4.15% to reach QR623.8 billion (bn) as compared to QR598.9bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 43 listed companies, 33 companies ended the week higher, while 10 fell. Ooredoo (ORDS)was the best performing stock for the week, with a gain of 10.16% on 871,424 shares traded. On the other hand, Doha Insurance Co. (DOHI) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 5.32% on 41,603 shares traded. QNB Group (QNBK), Industries Qatar (IQCD) and Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) were the primary contributors to the weekly index gain. QNBK was the biggest contributor to the Index’s weekly gain, adding 127.26 points to the Index. IQCD tacked on 65.88 points to the Index while QIBK contributed 55.80 points. On the other hand, Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK) and Doha Bank (DHBK) contributed negatively to the Index. CBQK and DHBK erased 2.55 and 0.64 points from the Index, respectively. Trading value during the week decreased by 14.78% to reach QR1.99bn vs. QR2.34bn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 37.81% of the total trading value. The Industrial sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for 23.08% of the total trading value. QNBK was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR197.7mn. Trading volume decreased by 19.50% to reach 46.57mn shares vs. 57.9mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions decreased by 4.86% to reach 27,037 transactions versus 28,419 transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting for 34.42%, followed by the Banks and Financial Services sector, which accounted for 23.34% of the overall trading volume. Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development Co. (MRDS) was the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 6.3mn shares. Foreign institutions remained bullish during the week with net buying of QR308.8mn vs. net buying of QR384.9mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bearish with net selling of QR107.7mn vs net selling of QR211.7mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR78.4mn vs. net selling of QR20.4mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bearish with net selling of QR122.6mn vs. net selling of QR152.5mn the week before. In 2015 YTD, foreign institutions bought (on a net basis) ~$615mn worth of Qatari equities. Market Indicators Week ended Sept. 10, 2015 Week ended Sept. 03, 2015 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 1,993.7 2,339.6 (14.8) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 623,779.2 598,911.7 4.2 Volume (mn) 46.6 57.9 (19.5) Number of Transactions 27,037 28,419 (4.9) Companies Traded 43 43 0.0 Market Breadth 33:10 10:32 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 18,423.80 4.5 2.5 0.5 All Share Index 3,138.51 4.0 2.1 (0.4) Banks/Financial Svcs. 3,222.88 4.8 4.5 0.6 Industrials 3,590.71 4.0 0.7 (11.1) Transportation 2,490.14 6.1 4.6 7.4 Real Estate 2,688.85 2.3 (0.7) 19.8 Insurance 4,659.74 1.4 (1.2) 17.7 Telecoms 1,011.76 7.6 5.0 (31.9) Consumer 6,784.49 1.3 (1.0) (1.8) Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,492.00 4.2 1.6 9.5 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QSE)* 11,853.01 4.5 2.5 (3.5) 547.50 171,352.1 12.2 1.8 4.3 Dubai 3,621.25 1.4 (1.1) (4.0) 489.85 94,439.7# 11.7 1.1 7.2 Abu Dhabi 4,537.56 3.6 1.0 0.2 252.92 123,402.7 12.1 1.4 5.0 Saudi Arabia# 7,748.92 4.9 3.0 (7.0) 6,869.54 462,758.3 16.6 1.8 3.4 Kuwait 5,764.92 0.1 (1.0) (11.8) 229.30 89,124.8 14.7 1.0 4.5 Oman 5,800.99 0.9 (1.2) (8.5) 46.00 23,590.1 10.6 1.4 4.5 Bahrain 1,290.90 (0.7) (0.6) (9.5) 127.37 20,191.4 8.2 0.8 5.3 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any; # Data as of September 09, 2015) 11,277.66 11,319.98 11,430.47 11,659.42 11,853.01 0 8,000,000 16,000,000 10,900 11,400 11,900 6-Sep 7-Sep 8-Sep 9-Sep 10-Sep Volume QSEIndex 4.9% 4.5% 3.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% (0.7%) (1.0%) 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% SaudiArabia Qatar(QSE)* AbuDhabi Dubai Oman Kuwait Bahrain
  2. 2. Page 2 of 6 News Economic News  NB Group: Non-hydrocarbon investments to drive Qatar real GDP growth – QNB Group (QNBK) in its Qatar Economic Insight has said that Qatar’s real GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 4.7% in 2015 and 6.4% in both 2016 and 2017 as the government expands its investment spending program in the non- hydrocarbon sector. According to the report, Qatar is well- positioned to withstand lower oil prices thanks to its strong macroeconomic fundamentals, including relatively low fiscal breakeven price, accumulation of significant savings from the past and low levels of public debt. Oil prices are also expected to stay lower for longer, averaging $55 per barrel in 2015-16 on oversupplied markets, before rising to $60 in 2017 as US shale output growth weakens. Inflation is expected to remain subdued in 2015 as international food prices continue to fall due to slowing demand growth and the build-up in stocks after good global harvests. Domestic inflation is expected to remain weak in 2015, despite strong population growth, as additional housing units are lowering housing inflation. Overall inflation is projected to pick up in 2016 and 2017 owing to the expected recovery in food prices in 2016 and higher oil prices in 2017. Meanwhile, QNBK said that Qatar’s international reserves rose to $43.8bn in July 2015 from $42bn in June. In terms of months of prospective import cover, international reserves rose to 7.8 months of imports from 7.5 months in June. QNBK expects accumulation of international reserves to continue, reaching $46bn, or eight months of import cover at the end of 2015. The overall balance of payments recorded a small deficit of $3.3bn in 1Q2015, leading to a decrease in international reserves. The current account surplus narrowed to $6.1bn (12.8% of GDP) in 1Q2015 on lower hydrocarbon exports, the capital & financial account recorded a deficit of $9.1bn in 1Q2015. QNBK expects Qatar’s current account surplus to shrink in 2015, before stabilizing in 2016-17. (Gulf-Times.com)  Qatar vows to go ahead with major infrastructure projects – HE the Finance Minister Ali Shareef Al-Emadi said Qatar is backed by a strong national budget and cash reserves and it will not scale back major infrastructure projects or cut food and fuel subsidies despite declining oil prices. The Finance Minister stressed that many of the government’s $200bn infrastructure projects are already in the execution stage. On slashing fuel and other subsidies, the Finance Minister said Qatar’s financial situation is healthy and the country does not need to initiate extra measures. Given the current fluctuation in global prices, which makes it difficult to predict future oil prices, Al-Emadi said Qatar will continue its conservative fiscal policies on maximizing utilization of available financial resources; increase efficiency in public expenditure, and ensure the implementation of the budget as planned. In addition, he also said the government will continue to implement capital expenditure plans on major health, education, and infrastructure projects, the implementation of 2022 FIFA World Cup related-projects, support growth in non-oil sectors and expand private sector participation in different economic activities. The Finance Minister added that Qatar’s private sector will be the key driver of the country’s future growth. Qatar will continue to see growth and the country will rely more on the private sector. (Gulf-Times.com, Peninsula Qatar) Market & Corporate News  Nakilat raises foreign ownership limit to 49% – Qatar Gas Transport Co. (Nakilat) announced its decision to raise foreign ownership limit to 49%, from the existing 25%. An extraordinary general meeting (EGM) of the Qatari marine transport company agreed to raise its non-Qatari ownership limit, among a number of amendments to the company’s Articles of Association. According to the decision, Qatari governmental institutions, Qatari non-for- profit organizations, Qatari governmental pension and investments funds can own a percentage of share capital up to five percent of the company’s total shares. (Peninsula Qatar)  Boeing, QNB Group facilitate growth of Qatar aircraft financing sector – Aircraft manufacturer Boeing and Qatar National Bank (QNB Group) hosted an aircraft financier and investor roundtable in Doha, bringing together a number of representatives from financial institutions in Qatar and the region to discuss the current aircraft finance market, forecast airplane deliveries and to learn more about aircraft financing. Boeing's latest commercial aviation market outlook forecasts demand for 3,180 new airplanes for the Middle East region over the next 20 years, worth around $730bn. QNB Group has been leading the way in aircraft financing in the GCC region. QNB group has been instrumental in arranging financing for a number of airlines in the GCC and EU with the partnership of banks across the globe. (Peninsula Qatar)  AHCS expands into maritime transportation with AMTS – Aamal Company (AHCS) has established a new subsidiary – Aamal for Maritime Transportation Services (AMTS). AMTS will take ownership of vessels initially to transport aggregates from Al Fujairah in the UAE to Mesaieed Industrial City in Qatar. AMTS will ensure security of supply for AHCS-owned subsidiary Gulf Rocks. In addition to meeting AHCS’ transportation requirements, AMTS will make capacity available to third party operators to optimize the vessels’ utilization rates and profitability. The vessels are capable of shipping non-industrial commodities such as grains as well as aggregates and similar industrial raw materials. The commercial operations will start immediately as the acquisition of the first vessel, a bulk carrier with a capacity of 56,726 tons, has been completed. AMTS will have an initial share capital of QR0.2mn, which will be internally funded through cash, and without any debt financing. AHCS will hold 1% of the shares directly, with the remaining 99% held by Gulf Rocks. AHCS will have an overall effective interest of 74.75% in AMTS. (QSE, Press Release)  New sponsorship law gets Cabinet approval – Qatar News Agency (QNA) has reported that the Cabinet gave its nod for a law regulating the entry, exit and residency of expatriates, popularly known as the new sponsorship law, after reviewing the recommendations of the Advisory Council on a draft law in this regard. The bill includes provisions to regulate the procedures and conditions of expatriates’ entry, exit, residency, recruitment as well as changing of jobs from one employer to another. It also refers to the responsibilities of the employer and the expatriate worker. The Minister of Interior has been empowered to issue residency permits to investors under the jurisdiction of the new law. This step aims at regulating investment of non-Qatari capital in the economic activity in the country. Owners and beneficiaries of properties and residential buildings, in line with the law, are entitled to residency permit without a sponsor. The Minister may also grant residency permits to other categories based on a Cabinet decision. (Gulf-Times.com)
  3. 3. Page 3 of 6 Qatar Stock Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) 10.2% 9.4% 8.0% 7.9% 7.2% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% Ooredoo Gulf Warehousing Qatar Islamic Bank Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Qatari Investors Group -5.3% -1.8% -1.4% -1.1% -1.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% Doha Insurance National Leasing MannaiCorp. Al Ahli Bank Qatar National Cement 197.7 180.2 168.5 160.1 133.7 0.0 70.0 140.0 210.0 QNB Group Barwa Real Estate Gulf International Services Qatar Islamic Bank Masraf Al Rayan 6.3 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.4 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 Mazaya Qatar Ezdan Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Vodafone Qatar 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 35.10% 41.25% 16.27% 21.67% 11.77% 15.70% 36.87% 21.38% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 1,024 970 1,254 739 (230) 230 (500) - 500 1,000 1,500 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  4. 4. Page 4 of 6 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The Index continued its recovery we mentioned last week. It gained 4.46% from the week before but on lower volumes. This bounce is expected to be met with high resistance levels, starting from the 11,900 level to the 12,200 level. It should be noted that we are still in a bearish trend until this status quo changes. On a different note, the closest support is going to be around the 11,300 level. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  5. 5. Page 5 of 6 Source: Bloomberg Company Name Price (Sept 10) % Change 5- Day % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 195.80 6.12 (8.03) 137,007 12.5 2.4 3.8 Qatar Islamic Bank 120.00 8.01 17.42 28,355 16.2 2.0 3.5 Commercial Bank of Qatar 55.70 (0.54) (10.55) 18,193 9.7 1.1 5.7 Doha Bank 51.00 (0.20) (10.53) 13,177 9.6 1.0 7.8 Al Ahli Bank 46.60 (1.06) (6.12) 8,468 13.3 2.0 2.9 Qatar International Islamic Bank 79.00 6.18 (3.30) 11,958 13.9 2.3 5.1 Masraf Al Rayan 44.85 5.41 1.47 33,638 16.0 3.4 3.9 Al Khaliji Bank 21.49 2.33 (2.54) 7,736 12.7 1.3 4.7 National Leasing 16.70 (1.76) (16.50) 826 N/A 0.7 5.1 Dlala Holding 20.35 5.06 (39.14) 578 N/A 2.0 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 13.70 1.48 (11.04) 432 6.7 1.2 5.8 Islamic Holding Group 118.20 3.23 (5.06) 473 32.5 7.6 2.5 Banking and Financial Services 260,841 Zad Holding 91.60 0.11 9.05 1,198 10.4 1.5 4.4 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 13.78 1.70 35.76 159 N/A 1.0 N/A Salam International Investment 12.41 0.08 (21.70) 1,419 18.2 0.9 4.8 Medicare Group 168.50 2.12 44.02 4,742 24.1 5.4 1.1 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 39.50 0.51 (1.25) 248 19.1 1.8 2.3 Qatar Fuel 155.90 1.76 (23.69) 13,167 11.5 2.0 5.8 Qatar Meat and Livestock 54.00 2.86 (10.60) 972 15.8 4.1 4.6 Al Meera Consumer Goods 254.20 (0.51) 27.10 5,084 23.7 3.9 3.5 Consumer Goods and Services 26,990 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 43.65 4.43 0.69 2,074 12.5 1.4 6.9 Qatar National Cement 102.00 (0.97) (15.00) 5,509 13.0 2.1 3.6 Industries Qatar 135.00 5.39 (19.64) 81,675 13.8 2.6 5.2 Qatari Investors Group 49.00 7.22 18.36 6,092 26.1 2.6 1.5 Qatar Electricity and Water 218.00 3.81 16.27 23,980 15.0 3.6 3.4 Mannai Corp. 94.40 (1.36) (13.39) 4,306 8.8 2.0 6.4 Aamal 13.84 2.06 (4.33) 8,719 13.8 1.2 6.9 Gulf International Services 62.00 6.35 (36.15) 11,522 7.4 3.1 8.9 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 20.93 (0.76) -29.1 26,295 20.3 1.9 5.3 Industrials 170,173 Qatar Insurance 97.00 1.89 23.12 17,908 19.0 3.1 2.2 Doha Insurance 23.48 (5.32) (19.03) 1,174 13.2 1.1 4.3 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 56.00 1.82 9.15 4,455 4.7 0.8 3.1 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 34.00 1.49 (23.03) 868 16.1 1.4 3.8 Qatar Islamic Insurance 74.50 (0.53) (5.70) 1,118 14.9 3.6 5.4 Insurance 25,523 United Development 23.74 3.99 0.64 8,406 12.3 0.8 5.3 Barw a Real Estate 44.00 3.65 5.01 17,121 2.8 0.9 5.0 Ezdan Real Estate 18.70 1.36 25.34 49,602 34.0 1.7 2.1 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 16.36 5.07 (10.30) 1,718 10.0 1.3 1.7 Real Estate 76,847 Qatar Telecom 74.80 10.16 (39.63) 23,960 16.8 1.1 5.3 Vodafone Qatar 14.00 1.67 (14.89) 11,836 N/M 2.2 1.5 Telecoms 35,796 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 99.50 3.11 0.00 11,395 9.6 0.8 5.5 Gulf Warehousing 70.00 9.38 24.11 3,329 20.8 3.7 2.1 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 23.01 7.93 (0.39) 12,886 13.5 3.2 5.2 Transportation 27,610 Qatar Exchange 623,779
  6. 6. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of HNI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 6 of 6

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