Fundamentalsof Crime Mapping 1


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Fundamentalsof Crime Mapping 1

  1. 1. Instructor name here
  2. 2. General class instructions here 
  3. 3. ArcGIS  ◦ ―GIS Tutorial‖  ESRI (  180 day copy of ArcGIS  Alternative: ―Getting to Know ArcGIS for Version 9‖  n=display&websiteID=144&moduleID=0 ◦ Get 60 day Evaluation copy from ESRI Website (order early) ◦ aluate.html ◦ Get 1 year Student license from ESRI for $100.00 ◦ sitelic.html#individual
  4. 4. CrimeStat III  ◦ ◦ Manual is also very good reference manual for spatial statistics
  5. 5. The more you desire to learn, the more you learn   Practice, practice, practice Develop a thick skin  ◦ Your first maps are going to be awful, listen to constructive criticism and don‘t take it too personally Don‘t give away this new skill  ◦ Practice and keep up to date with it ◦ Will reward you in many professions as an additional skill that is marketable
  6. 6. Victims  Suspects  Environment  Time  ◦ Who, What, When, Where, Why and How?
  7. 7. The study of crime and criminal behavior  ◦ No generally accepted single theory that explains the existence of crime in a society ◦ Consensus perspectives  Approach crime as a normal and healthy part of any society ◦ Conflict perspectives  Argue that crime is the result of group conflict and unequal distributions of power
  8. 8. Macro  ◦ Make assumptions about societal-level variables, including the structure of government and the economy and how these variables impact crime rates within a society Micro  ◦ Make assumptions about individual characteristics (IQ, mental state, temperament, biological characteristics, and personal finances, for example) and how they influence a person‘s decision to commit a crime
  9. 9. Environment/Place Victim Suspect Time
  10. 10. Economic composition of a community contributes to  crime by affecting neighborhood order Higher juvenile delinquency rates tended to cluster in  certain neighborhoods within urban areas Poverty and residential instability,  ◦ Impacted both the physical appearance and the social structure of the neighborhood itself High population density  High population mobility  Higher numbers of suitable targets  Motivated offenders coexisted with little or no  guardianship Produces higher rates of crime  Higher rates of crime regardless of who lived there  The area, not the people, is criminogenic 
  11. 11. Three very basic premises  ◦ Environmental Criminology  Environment can affect crime  Target rich environments ◦ Routine Activity Theory  We all have routines, in our down time, we commit crime  Mental maps and nodes, paths, awareness space ◦ Rational Choice Theory  Suspects plan to some degree their crimes  If we understand the reason for the choices, we can understand and forecast where the offender goes next Crime Pattern Theory is a combination of all of  these
  12. 12. Two Good Web References  ◦ bib1.html ◦
  13. 13. Certain locations can be crime attractors (Crime  pattern theory) ◦ Bank ATM ◦ Sports Venues (Coyotes Stadium, etc)  More potential victims Security  ◦ Design of building or path through makes cover and concealment available to suspect and disadvantage to victim Ease of escape  ◦ Ability to commit crime and leave the scene without detection ◦ Darkness ◦ Closeness of a freeway, etc.
  14. 14. Motivated offender  Suitable target  Absence of a capable guardian 
  15. 15. Mental Maps  ◦ If you had to draw your world right now, what would it look like? ◦ Where do you live, work, play? (nodes) ◦ How do you get back and forth between these places? (Paths) ◦ The areas between nodes and paths that are known to you because of your routine activities, are your ―awareness spaces‖ ◦ I drive to work everyday and see construction and say, ―Wow, it sure is growing out this way‖  The person with a criminal intent says, ―Wow, look at all the construction equipment that isn‘t locked up around here!‖ ◦ Can be a great interview technique, because all maps are ―true!‖
  16. 16. Routine Activities Theory Analysis Triangle Family, Home Owners, Probation Officer Teachers Police, Private Security
  17. 17. Nodes  Paths  Awareness Space  Escape Routes  Geography of  Victimology • What does this offender‘s nodes maybe tell you about him/her?
  18. 18. Theory should power all mapping and analysis  projects ◦ Think about  Suspect‘s search patterns  Least effort  Mixed scanning  Find an area then find a target  Bank ATM, Sports Arena, Big Event, Mall  Awareness spaces  Knowledge  Comfort Routines and rhythms  Obligatory time (work etc.)  Discretionary time (Crimes occur now)
  19. 19. Commuter Focus on Crime Or Hunter Marauder or Theory: Poacher . . . Marauder Vs. . . . . . Commuter .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
  20. 20. We are all human beings and each of us  uses some thought process to make decisions Criminals and ―normal‖ people are  fundamentally the same We make decisions on where to commit our  crime through: What is the benefit I receive? ◦ Is it relatively safe? ◦ Can I escape easily? ◦ Number of potential witnesses to my crime? ◦  Identification of myself by police and others
  21. 21. Hypothesis testing should be an everyday part of crime analysis
  22. 22. Crime analysis  ◦ Focus on events  Administrative  Operational or Police Operations Analysis  Strategic  Tactical Criminal intelligence analysis  ◦ Focus on people ◦ Organized criminal activity and seeks to link people, events, and property Investigative analysis  ◦ Focus on investigation of specific crimes ◦ Victim characteristics and elements of crime scenes are studied to discover patterns that link related crimes together ◦ Investigative support
  23. 23. ―is the systematic study of crime and disorder  problems as well as other police-related issues— including sociodemographic, spatial, and temporal factors—to assist the police in criminal apprehension, crime and disorder reduction, crime prevention, and evaluation‖ (Boba, 2005, p. 6) ―focused on the study of criminal incidents; the  identification of patterns, trends, and problems; and the dissemination of information that helps a police agency develop tactics and strategies to solve patterns, trends, and problems‖ (Bruce, 2004, p. 15)
  24. 24. Provide information that is fast, reliable  and accurate (data quality) Improve administrative reports where  needed Improve strategic analysis efforts for  better decision making Begin proactive analysis of several crime  types that can be impacted by crime analysis efforts
  25. 25. Involves the presentation of key findings of  crime research and analysis to audiences within law enforcement, local government, and citizenry based on legal, political, and practical concerns including: ◦ A report on demographic changes in the jurisdiction ◦ Miscellaneous crime statistics to support grant applications ◦ Preparation of Uniform Crime Report (UCR) or Incident-Based Reporting System ◦ Hotspot, pin, or reference maps for the jurisdiction
  26. 26. Assist in general reporting  Improve UCR coding processes by  reviewing coded reports for accuracy Suggest improvements to the  management system when needed Produce reports and data in a timely  manner Provide general hot spot and crime  distribution maps and reports on an ad- hoc basis Do staffing studies 
  27. 27. Administrative (bean counting)  Reference maps ◦ Hot spot or hot area maps ◦ Graduated symbol maps ◦ Pin maps ◦ Larger geography area  Longer time periods  Less specific focus  Multi-layer geoprocessing (thematic  mapping) Using several layers of data to make one final map ◦ Redistricting is an example ◦
  28. 28. Involves the study of crime and other law  enforcement issues to identify long-standing patterns of crime and other problems and to assess police responses to these problems (Boba, 2005) Typically, this analysis involves collecting a great  deal of information about criminal events. In addition, ―helping agencies to identify root causes of crime problems and develop creative problem-solving strategies to reduce crime‖ is a key goal in strategic crime analysis (IACA)
  29. 29. Create hot spot maps by various geographic  areas and boundaries ◦ Do time comparison studies Create reports that are easily read and explain  general date, time, and day of week distributions of crime in specific geographic areas identified in the administrative process Find ―thresholds‖ of activity in specific  geographic areas to provide weekly or monthly strategic battle plans to all units of the department Create new reports and processes needed to  support this function throughout the department Database support 
  30. 30. Strategic  Hotspot maps ◦ Graduated symbol maps ◦ Pin maps (limited) ◦ Multi-layer, thematic, geoprocessing ◦ Recurring or significant problem you are trying to  find or isolate Smaller geographic area  Shorter time period  More specific focus  Problem-solving or intelligence-led policing  workhorse
  31. 31. Examines recent criminal events and potential  criminal activity by analyzing how, when, and where the events occur to establish patterns and series, identify leads or suspects, and to clear cases (Boba, 2005)
  32. 32. Find trends, clusters, patterns, sprees and  series of criminal activity through proactive review of reports. ◦ Identify the next day of week, time of day, and likely date of a new crime by the same offender (s) (Statistical Analysis) ◦ Provide additional investigative data from police files and resources on similar crimes or M.O. (Database Searches) ◦ Identify the likely location of a new crime in a series or trend (like, ellipses, rectangles, probability grid analysis) ◦ Identify the likely home address location or anchor point for an offender and provide person information to investigative units for consideration (journey to crime) ◦ Repeat as needed
  33. 33. Tactical  Hot spot maps ◦ Graduated point maps ◦ Pin Maps ◦ Thematic mapping ◦ Waiting for the next incident to happen  Predictions for new hit  Journey to crime analysis  Very specific focus ◦ Short time spans analyzed ◦ Very limited to some range of geography ◦
  34. 34. More data is available to you  ◦ Become ―intimate‖ with the data Data problems can be identified and corrected  Excellent tool for goal planning and  completion and applying the SARA model to problems: ◦ Collect, collate, analyze, disseminate, and EVALUATE vs. S.A.R.A.
  35. 35. Geographic Information Systems have developed  over the past 30 years First crime map in early 1900‘s in New York ◦ First computerized crime map in 1960‘s ◦ Canada led the way  More common use in late 1980‘s, early 90‘s ◦ GIS use has increased dramatically in the past 5-  10 years, however may still be underused in some police departments 2002 ACJC study, only 15% of AZ agencies using  it ACJC Crime Mapping in Arizona 2002.pdf
  36. 36. The ―SYSTEM‖ part of GIS could be used to  describe all of the diverse assortment of data that a normal police department collects during day to day operations Geographic data (incident locations, home addresses, etc) ◦ Data that can be tied to the geographic data (person‘s ◦ DOB, Vehicle make, property, M.O., etc.) A GIS can assist police with  optimizing limited resources ◦ directing enforcement activities to needed areas ◦ streamlining and improving business processes ◦ identifying critical information problems within datasets ◦ collected and maintained. Quality control ◦ With this increase in the amount of data  available to decision makers, we have to be able to make sense of all of this data.
  37. 37. In the business community this is often  described as ―business intelligence‖ or the process of taking the bits and pieces of data we collect everyday, Ordering it and organizing it so that it  makes sense and provides information, to assist other analysts, administrators, detectives, and patrol officers To develop knowledge to prevent  crimes, catch criminals, or enhance public safety.
  38. 38.  My audience determines what type of map I produce and that you will have many different people and purposes within the audiences you will address as a crime analyst
  39. 39. Has increased (or can increase) efficiency in the  data collection processes Easy to do, so more data is used ◦ When you are mapping data, you often find the ―big‖ ◦ accuracy or reliability problems with your data collection systems and can make recommendations to improve them Quality assurance measures can be identified ◦ Promotes by it‘s sheer nature – DATA SHARING  GIS the common language ◦
  40. 40. Saves time for your agency when used  correctly Saves money by understanding the  processes or the work flow of the data you will use
  41. 41. You will learn more information about crime  in your jurisdiction faster and become the resident ―expert‖ in data, software, and often hardware
  42. 42. You will develop new partnerships with people  Your own city (IT ◦ staff, Engineering, Utilities, Planning, etc.) In our county (IT Staff, GIS ◦ section, Elections, Association of Governments, etc.) Between other law enforcement agencies ◦ Data sharing projects and cooperative grant processes  In your state and with the federal government ◦ Homeland security  Grants  Geospatial One-stop web sites 
  43. 43. With GIS, we deal with several different types of  data. In the ArcMap application we deal mostly with 4 basic data formats: ◦ Vector  Points  Lines (sometimes called Arcs)  Polygons ◦ Raster  Image
  44. 44. Points ◦ incidents or events  Radio calls  Crimes ◦ physical features  Police stations  Schools  Evidence found
  45. 45. Lines (sometimes called Arcs) Streets ◦ Knows start and end ◦ Can be used for routing ◦ Distances between things (length) ◦ Knows what‘s on the right or left ◦ Boundary lines ◦
  46. 46. Polygons  Are bounded by limits of box ◦ Knows what is within and what borders itself ◦ Aggregation container ◦ Knows it‘s AREA ◦
  47. 47. Raster vs. Vector data  ◦ Points, lines and polygons are Vector data with aggregation or not  Discrete data (a line stitched on to a blanket) ◦ Raster data is like a weather map  Satellite photos, radar, aerial images  Continuous data (the entire blanket)
  48. 48. ―A computerized mapping system that allows a  police department to analyze geographic and related data collected during the course of police activities, to provide insight into better crime fighting strategies, community based policing program evaluation, administrative, strategic, and tactical planning and intervention activities, predicting suspect behavior and patterns in active investigations, and to utilize the data more effectively through graphic display of data in a easy to understand ―map‖ format, as well as develop strategies to guarantee accurate data collection to achieve sound analysis products for decision making processes, across all units within a police department.‖
  49. 49. IACA Vendor List  ◦ Crime Mapping (NIJ Maps)  ◦ IACA (International Association of Crime Analysts)  ◦ AACA (Arizona Association of Crime Analysts)  ◦ And many many more listed in the textbook 
  50. 50. The method used to transfer locations on the  Earth‘s surface to a flat map is called projection.
  51. 51. There are hundreds of mathematical calculations  to make the data at some point on the earth‘s surface the ―most‖ accurate. The earth is not perfectly round (spheroid)  ◦ Hills and valleys, etc All map projections distort the surface in some  fashion Area ◦ Shape ◦ Direction ◦ Bearing ◦ Distance ◦ Scale ◦
  52. 52. Common Projection for USA is Universal  Transverse Mercator ◦ Latitude and Longitude lines ◦ State plane coordinate system derived from this projection for better accuracy  Nad 1983, Fips 0202  Az Central – Maricopa and other counties  Most states have 3 zones (FIPS zones)  International feet  Measurement units
  53. 53. Important to know projection to share data  Important to measure correctly  ArcGIS Shapefile creates a .PRJ file which  stores the projection information so it can be used with other data I sharing data:  ◦ Provide complete projection  State Plane Coordinate System, Nad 1983, Fips 0202, Az Central, Intl Feet (or meters, feet, etc)
  54. 54. ArcGIS –ArcView ArcMap Level Menu Bar or Menu Items Map Display Map Workspace Start-up Dialog Table of Contents ToolBox Toolbars and Menus
  55. 55. GIS Software with 3 levels  ◦ ArcInfo ◦ Arc Editor ◦ ArcMap (what we have) Made by ESRI  ◦ Initial steep learning curve  Can do just about anything and only limited  by your imagination
  56. 56. Menu Bar (Activate by clicking and choosing item) Table of Contents Map Display TOC Tabs (Display, Data Source, and Selected records views)
  57. 57. Checked, or Turned On or Visible in Map Display Highlighted or ―Selected‖ Map Display Display tab – shows you what Table of Contents layers are available in the data frame and can be viewed on the map display area
  58. 58. File Directory Path Map Display Table of Contents Source – gives you the file location for the data in the project
  59. 59. Selectable and records selected Not Selectable Map Display Selection – let‘s you choose which Table of Contents themes can have records selected, and which themes have records selected in them -bolded and number of records in ―()‖
  60. 60. Data Layout Standard Frame toolbar toolbar Themes or layers Map Display View Table of Contents Tools
  61. 61. Right Click on Data frame to get data frame properties menu Map Display Table of Contents
  62. 62. Right click on theme name to get Layer Properties menu Map Display Table of Contents
  63. 63. Symbology Tab Allows us to make changes to how the data is displayed and classified Map Display
  64. 64. Definition query tab allows us to choose what data we see
  65. 65. Label tab let‘s us label just about anything on the map automatically and we have more choices and options than we can shake a stick at
  66. 66. Standard tools active – Layout tools not active Map display View Layout tools active – Standard tools also active layout View You need to make sure you keep the layout tools and the standard tools separate in your mind as they work on the data differently
  67. 67. Add Data Arc Toolbox Table of Contents Map Display
  68. 68. Allows us to add data from a variety of sources: •GIS Layers •Tables •Images •ODBC and OLE DB Connections to databases
  69. 69. Table of Contents Map Display Arc Toolbox
  70. 70. Arc Catalog Button Table of Contents Map Display
  71. 71. New program opens – File Information, data Structure and metadata Library of sorts You can manage your data, search and find data, view data, and add metadata (data about data) in Arc Catalog. You can also create new data and drag and drop data into ArcGIS from Arc Catalog
  72. 72. Be sure to use complete SQL structure:  ◦ [FieldName] = ‗Something‘ ◦ Field, operator, and Value
  73. 73. Useful for  finding data that meet your geographic boundaries or contain some element you need
  74. 74. Use the exercises in class and  practice, practice, practice!
  75. 75. You WILL find the light at the end of the  tunnel
  76. 76. Crime Types  Trend – A crime trend is the occurrence of similar offenses  in a geographic area that have increased or decreased within a given time period and this can be measured. Pattern – A crime pattern is the occurrence of similar  offenses in a geographic area that may or may not be committed by the same suspect or suspects. Cluster – A crime cluster is the occurrence of similar  offenses within close proximity to each other potentially leading to identification of a crime series or not. Series – A crime series is the occurrence of offenses  showing evidence that the same suspect or suspects has committed the crimes. This is verified through similar MO’s or suspect descriptions. Spree – A crime spree is a set of crimes committed  sequentially by the same suspect or suspects over a short period time.
  77. 77. General Terms  Hot Spot – An area that has been identified to have more  crime than another area or has a higher “density” of crimes. Density – Density is a term applied to geographic elements  and their relationship to each other. A location or group of crimes is considered more dense as their numbers increase and the proximity to another location or crime is reduced. Threshold Analysis – A product used as an early warning  system for crimes in a specific geographic area to determine if the total numbers are higher or lower than the a previous, equal, time period. Spatial Analysis (Geoprocessing) – The science of using  geographic elements and their relationship to other geographic elements to analyze crime and crime associations. GIS – Geographic Information Systems. Also known as  computer mapping.
  78. 78. General Terms  Frequency Distribution – A listing of numbers or scores in  ascending or descending order. Mean – The mathematical average of a set of numbers.  Median – The middle score in a distribution.  Mode – The most frequent score in a distribution.  Standard Deviation – This is the average of the differences  between scores in a frequency distribution yielding to a normal distribution (bell-shaped curve). Central Tendency – A term used to describe the proximity of a  score in a distribution to the mean of the same distribution.