Power systems reliability assessment in prospective analyses: the case of France under ambitious renewable energy penetration scenarios

1. Power systems reliability assessment
in prospective analyses: the case of
France under ambitious renewable
energy penetration scenarios
Vincent KRAKOWSKI, Nadia Maïzi, Edi Assoumou, Vincent Mazauric
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University,
Center for Applied Mathematics (CMA)
Chair modeling for sustainable development
Sophia Antipolis, France
ETSAP Workshop
October 22-23, 2015
Sophia-Antipolis, France

2. European power production by fuels in 2014
Increasing role of renewable energy in power production
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 2 / 20
1. Context of the study
Global power production by fuels in 2014
Source: REN 21 – Global Status Report 2015
Share of renewable energy in power
production per European country in 2014
Source: ENTSOE– Electricity in Europe 2014
20%
2020: 27%
2030: 40%

3. OUTLINE
1. Introduction
2. A TIMES model for French power sector
3. Scenarios and results
4. Conclusion and perspectives
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 3 / 20

4. Reference Energy System of TIMES-FR-ELEC
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 4 / 20
A TIMES MODEL FOR FRENCH POWER SECTOR
Time description:
• 2012  2050: 13 « annual » periods
• Each annual period divided into 84 « infra-annual » sub-periods
Ressources Power plants and
storage technologies
Power grid
DemandEmissions

5. Modeling VRE in TIMES
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 5 / 20
A TIMES MODEL FOR FRENCH POWER SECTOR
Non-dispatchable
No inherent inertia
Lower predictability
Variability Load curves (wind, PV)
No contribution to peak load and
reserves
Low production events time-slices
No contribution to power system
reliability
Dispersed Work in progress
Variable renewable
characteristics
Modeling technics𝑱𝝎 𝒎
𝒅𝝎 𝒎
𝒅𝒕
= 𝑷 𝒎 − 𝑷 𝒆 − 𝑷𝒍
Y. Rebours, A comprehensive assessment of markets for frequency and voltage control ancillary services. PhD thesis (2008)

6. General assumptions used in this study
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 6 / 20
A TIMES MODEL FOR FRENCH POWER SECTOR
COSTS ASSUMPTIONS
• Ressources prices (WEO, 2013)
• Investment and operational
costs of power plants, storage
capacities and new lines
POTENTIALS ASSUMPTIONS
• RES potentials (ADEME, 2012)
• New Interconnections: RTE
scenarios
• Rhythms of installation for new
technologies
• Extension of current nuclear
power plants (40 ans --> 60 ans)
DEMAND ASSUMPTIONS
• Reference scenario BP RTE
(2012: 495 --> 2050: 519 TWh)
• Demand elasticity: per sector
(- 8% in 2050)
• Demand-Response: EV (50%),
commercial & residential (10%)
POWER CURVES
• Wind and solar production (RTE,
2012 data)
• Hydropower: seasonal curves
• Nuclear power: Availability
factor min and max (45% - 95%)
CO2 emissions
< 2012 value
(39 Mt)

7. OUTLINE
1. Introduction
2. A TIMES model for French power sector
3. Scenarios and results
4. Conclusion and perspectives
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 7 / 20

8. Description of the 5 studied scenarios
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 8 / 20
SCENARIOS AND RESULTS
Scenarios Years BAU 2020-2030
objectives
60RES
2050
80RES
2050
100RES
2050
Nuclear production
constraint
2025 and
after
NA 50% 50% 50% 50%
RES penetration
objectives
2020 NA 27% 27% 27% 27%
2030 NA 40% 40% 40% 40%
2035 NA 40% 40% 40% 55%
2040 NA 40% 40% 50% 70%
2045 NA 40% 45% 65% 85%
2050 NA 40% 60% 80% 100%
Law on energy transition
(2015/08/18)
More ambitious targets
for RES penetration

9. Evolution of the power mix in the 5 scenarios
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 9 / 20
SCENARIOS AND RESULTS
Exports / Demand Elasticity

10. Installed capacity in the 5 scenarios
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 10 / 20
SCENARIOS AND RESULTS
x 3
x 2
34 GW 49 GW
54 GW

11. Profitability issue for fossil-based power plants
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 11 / 20
SCENARIOS AND RESULTS

12. A completely new power production profile
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 12 / 20
SCENARIOS AND RESULTS

13. Evolution of costs in the different scenarios
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 13 / 20
SCENARIOS AND RESULTS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Totaldiscountedcostofeachscenario
comparedtoBAUtotaldiscountedcost

14. Evolution of kinetik reserves deviation for each scenario relative to
the minimum 2012 value
Renevable Energy penetration causes a serious drop in kinetik reserves
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 14 / 20
SCENARIOS AND RESULTS

15. OUTLINE
1. Introduction
2. A TIMES model for French power sector
3. Scenarios and results
4. Conclusion and perspectives
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 15 / 20

16. Main results
• High renewable energy penetration in the French power system seems
technically feasible (for a slightly reduced demand) BUT with:
 A shift in power exchanges with neighboring countries
 The massive installation of new power plants
 The need for new dispatchable power plants (biomass, fossil) but which
ought to produce very few
 11%-31% cost increase compared to a BAU scenario
 The deterioration of power system’s margins to deal with disturbances
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 16 / 20
CONCLUSION

17. Perspectives: Endogenization of kinetik indicators (1/2)
• We aim at building renewable energy penetration scenarios that enable
maintaining kinetik reserves above a certain level
 Making the calculation of kinetik indicator endogenous in the model
 Discretizing the model: description of each unit of power production
and discret investments (Remark: Hkin varies non-linearly with units
capacity)
 Need a good description of the current power system and the
disaggregation of future power plants according to their size
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 17 / 20
CONCLUSION
Database Platts
(2013) for France
1. Classification
List of power plants by kind of
fuel, kind of power production
and size of the unit
2. Creation of VT file
List of process, their commodities
in and out , their capacity and the
value of Hkin for each
3842 operating units
729 processesFor the BY power system

18. Perspectives: Endogenization of kinetik indicators (2/2)
• Such an endogenization has already been realized in the CMA for the Reunion
Island: It has been showed that intermittent renewable energy share could
reach up to 60% without deteriorating too much kinetik reserves
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 18 / 20
CONCLUSION
Source: S. Bouckaert, PhD thesis,
CMA, Mines ParisTech, 2013
Kinetik indicator in 2030 for teh different hours of the day for 4 typical days in 3 scenarios

19. Perspectives: A new indicator for assessing power systems robustness (1/2)
• The kinetik indicator can be seen as an image of the reliability of a power system
as it assesses how this power system will be able to meet demand when there is a
mismatch between production and consumption.
• But the calculation of this indicator is based on the conservation of synchronism
over the power system: without synchronism, kinetik reserves from the different
power plants could not be aggregated.
• Based on the Kuramoto model which depicts the dynamics of non-linear coupled
oscillators connected through a network (Kuramoto, 1975), and more recent work
(Filatrella et al., 2008, Dörfler and Bullo, 2013) we use a new indicator which
assesses the stability of synchronal states of power systems.
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 19 / 20
CONCLUSION
(1)
𝜟P 𝜺
G
λ2 G
≤1
Where G is the graph representing the power grid, 𝜀G its edges, P the vector
of productions and consumptions and 𝜟P 𝜺
G
a norm on the differences
between adjacent nodes production/consumption.
λ2 G is the algebric connectivity of the graph G.

20. Perspectives: A new indicator for assessing power systems robustness (2/2)
• The condition (1) can be understood as “the power grid connectivity must
dominate the power system heterogenity”. A first analysis using this condition
on the current Reunion power system has been conducted:
ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis 20 / 20
CONCLUSION

21. ETSAP 2015, October, Sophia-Antipolis
Thank you for your attention
Any questions?
Related published or under-publication work:
• Krakowski et al. A prospective analysis of contrasted renewable energy penetration
targets in French power system. Publication under process
• Krakowski et al. Enjeux d’une transition vers une production d’électricité 100%
renouvelable en France. Revue de l’Energie, to be published (French only)
• Drouineau et al. Increasing shares of intermittent sources in Reunion Island: Impacts on
the future reliability of power supply. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (2015)
• Maïzi et al. Future prospects for nuclear power in France. Applied Energy (2014)
• Bouckaert et al. Expanding renewable energy by implementing Demand response and
Expanding renewable energy by implementing dynamic support through storage
technologies Energy Procedia (2014)
• Drouineau et al. Impacts of intermittent sources on the quality of power supply: The key
role of reliability indicators. Applied Energy (2014)
vincent.krakowski@mines-paristech.fr