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VERTROUWELIJK
2019 October
Decarbonization of industry –
Impact on energy
Pallas Agterberg, director of Strategy Alliander
2
Industry is facing a decarbonisation challenge
• Climate Agreement and EU policy have set
targets:
− 80-95% less CO2 in 2050
− 40% reduction in 2030
• Investors are warned about risks of fossil
investments
− Bank of England as the first to warn for
fossil legacy, in 2015
− Blackrock institute in 2016 outline the
market change
− Nederlandse Bank 2018: energy transition is
a risk, start now changing your investments
step by step
The new game for investors:
shares with revenue will
suddenly loose value. When to
sell? Who will buy?
12%
45%
1%
4%
25%
12%
McKinsey scenario 60% reduction CO2 in
2040 NL
Energy efficiency
Electrification
Feedstock
Recycle
Change steel production
CCS/CCU
Source: McKinsey 2018:
Energy transition : Mission (im)possible for industry? A Dutch example
The investment in efficiency,
electrification, CCS, hydrogen and
new production processes demand
much capital. Will it be earned
back?
Can we double the
grid in 20 years?
3
In 2030: flexibility has more value then volume (selling energy will no longer be a business model)
The residential market will be smart homes trading on a real time exchange – and the
industry will follow
Distributed assets will be a major part of energy systems in 2030
EVs and smart charging will be prevalent will the automotive
industry shifting mass production to electric vehicles.
Demand-side management will be widespread, driven by
connectivity in sensors, devices, assets and buildings. The
rise of machine learning and artificial intelligence will
process and analyse data, enabling demand-side
management without significant impacts on customers.
Batteries will be in large proportion of new vehicles and will
be prevalent in homes and the distribution network.
Installed cost of distributed generation such as
solar PV will continue to fall.
Heat will be increasingly decarbonised. The form
of decarbonisation will vary by market. Generally,
more and more heat will be electrified. Heat
networks will grow in urban applications. Green
gases will grow as an energy vector for heat and
a critical enabler of ever increasing intermittent
renewable generation.
4
Distributed assets for industry need a digitally organized interaction
Distributed Asset Trend Digital Challenge and Opportunity
Demand-side management will be widespread, driven by
connectivity in sensors, devices, assets and buildings.
Batteries will be in large proportion of new vehicles and will be
prevalent in homes and the distribution network. Industrial
storage can be batteries, hydrogen, chemical, thermal etc.
Installed cost of distributed generation such as solar PV will
continue to fall.
Small scale chemical plants, steel production, greenhouses,
assembling facilities etcetera
Heat management integrating actual prices of different sources,
heat demand of different users and optimizing on result and
price.
Ensuring data/signal accuracy is important to harmonize demand-
side with supply. Measurement & verification (M&V) of demand
side performance paramount to ROI (based on mega-watts; energy
saved)
Storage on hourly basis, days, months and seasonal level will be
part of the industrial decision making process, driven by ROI
and scheduling demands
Extreme surplus of solar on certain moments will change cost
models for hydrogen, alternating means of heating and
production processes that fluctuate with the actual price
Production facilities will be more loosely coupled from the specific
product it was meant for. The ability for instant change of
production creates new market
Heat will be locally produced, geothermal, industrial heat
pumps and cascaded with neighbouring industrial or residential
demand
5
Decarbonisation combined with digital and circular create the new business
model
In order to meet investors
demands, industries must have a
decarbonisation plan.
At the same time, there is a
challenge on:
• Digital transformation
(integration throughout the
value chain, AI, 3D printing)
• Circular economy (raw
materials)
• Local integration of systems: hydrogen, CO2,
heat crossing the borders of a single plant
• Redesign production processes, modular
products, rethinking geography
• The price of energy will be part of the design
of the production process. The flexibility in
changing the time of usage will lead to
significant lower energy cost
The industrial production processes will be dynamic in a digital controlled
interaction with its environment
The sudden growth will push investments beyond doable range
Example of the province of Noord-Holland
• The use of electricity will grow with 100-400% in the period
until 2050
• This means doubling the capacity network in 15 years and
again between 2030-2050. Power grid will have many
bottlenecks at high, medium and low voltage.
• Current policies will create bottlenecks in 2050 at
• 90-95% of the 150kV-stations and some of the HV connections.
These issues are in 85% on the demand site
• 35-50% of the substations
• 60-80% of the medium voltage rooms
7
The energy market will shift to platforms that manage local balance for power,
gas, heat and hydrogen
Taking full advantage of the system
• Increased communication and cooperation between all market
parties is necessary; optimised systems will require cross-
sector and cross-vector integration
• Platforms can provide a place for all to communicate with each
other, engage in new business activities and optimize on a
system level through (price) incentives.
• Market parties can use the available data to offer more choice
to end consumers and to optimise the energy system.
The physical limits of the energy system in handling
all the energy flows will become more critical to
manage.
• Shift in value to the timing and location of
energy demand and production.
• Optimizing energy at local, regional and national
levels to ensure the overall stability of the
energy system.
• Distributed and central assets will be connected,
in front of and behind the meter.

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Decarbonization of industry - impact on energy

  • 1. VERTROUWELIJK 2019 October Decarbonization of industry – Impact on energy Pallas Agterberg, director of Strategy Alliander
  • 2. 2 Industry is facing a decarbonisation challenge • Climate Agreement and EU policy have set targets: − 80-95% less CO2 in 2050 − 40% reduction in 2030 • Investors are warned about risks of fossil investments − Bank of England as the first to warn for fossil legacy, in 2015 − Blackrock institute in 2016 outline the market change − Nederlandse Bank 2018: energy transition is a risk, start now changing your investments step by step The new game for investors: shares with revenue will suddenly loose value. When to sell? Who will buy? 12% 45% 1% 4% 25% 12% McKinsey scenario 60% reduction CO2 in 2040 NL Energy efficiency Electrification Feedstock Recycle Change steel production CCS/CCU Source: McKinsey 2018: Energy transition : Mission (im)possible for industry? A Dutch example The investment in efficiency, electrification, CCS, hydrogen and new production processes demand much capital. Will it be earned back? Can we double the grid in 20 years?
  • 3. 3 In 2030: flexibility has more value then volume (selling energy will no longer be a business model) The residential market will be smart homes trading on a real time exchange – and the industry will follow Distributed assets will be a major part of energy systems in 2030 EVs and smart charging will be prevalent will the automotive industry shifting mass production to electric vehicles. Demand-side management will be widespread, driven by connectivity in sensors, devices, assets and buildings. The rise of machine learning and artificial intelligence will process and analyse data, enabling demand-side management without significant impacts on customers. Batteries will be in large proportion of new vehicles and will be prevalent in homes and the distribution network. Installed cost of distributed generation such as solar PV will continue to fall. Heat will be increasingly decarbonised. The form of decarbonisation will vary by market. Generally, more and more heat will be electrified. Heat networks will grow in urban applications. Green gases will grow as an energy vector for heat and a critical enabler of ever increasing intermittent renewable generation.
  • 4. 4 Distributed assets for industry need a digitally organized interaction Distributed Asset Trend Digital Challenge and Opportunity Demand-side management will be widespread, driven by connectivity in sensors, devices, assets and buildings. Batteries will be in large proportion of new vehicles and will be prevalent in homes and the distribution network. Industrial storage can be batteries, hydrogen, chemical, thermal etc. Installed cost of distributed generation such as solar PV will continue to fall. Small scale chemical plants, steel production, greenhouses, assembling facilities etcetera Heat management integrating actual prices of different sources, heat demand of different users and optimizing on result and price. Ensuring data/signal accuracy is important to harmonize demand- side with supply. Measurement & verification (M&V) of demand side performance paramount to ROI (based on mega-watts; energy saved) Storage on hourly basis, days, months and seasonal level will be part of the industrial decision making process, driven by ROI and scheduling demands Extreme surplus of solar on certain moments will change cost models for hydrogen, alternating means of heating and production processes that fluctuate with the actual price Production facilities will be more loosely coupled from the specific product it was meant for. The ability for instant change of production creates new market Heat will be locally produced, geothermal, industrial heat pumps and cascaded with neighbouring industrial or residential demand
  • 5. 5 Decarbonisation combined with digital and circular create the new business model In order to meet investors demands, industries must have a decarbonisation plan. At the same time, there is a challenge on: • Digital transformation (integration throughout the value chain, AI, 3D printing) • Circular economy (raw materials) • Local integration of systems: hydrogen, CO2, heat crossing the borders of a single plant • Redesign production processes, modular products, rethinking geography • The price of energy will be part of the design of the production process. The flexibility in changing the time of usage will lead to significant lower energy cost The industrial production processes will be dynamic in a digital controlled interaction with its environment
  • 6. The sudden growth will push investments beyond doable range Example of the province of Noord-Holland • The use of electricity will grow with 100-400% in the period until 2050 • This means doubling the capacity network in 15 years and again between 2030-2050. Power grid will have many bottlenecks at high, medium and low voltage. • Current policies will create bottlenecks in 2050 at • 90-95% of the 150kV-stations and some of the HV connections. These issues are in 85% on the demand site • 35-50% of the substations • 60-80% of the medium voltage rooms
  • 7. 7 The energy market will shift to platforms that manage local balance for power, gas, heat and hydrogen Taking full advantage of the system • Increased communication and cooperation between all market parties is necessary; optimised systems will require cross- sector and cross-vector integration • Platforms can provide a place for all to communicate with each other, engage in new business activities and optimize on a system level through (price) incentives. • Market parties can use the available data to offer more choice to end consumers and to optimise the energy system. The physical limits of the energy system in handling all the energy flows will become more critical to manage. • Shift in value to the timing and location of energy demand and production. • Optimizing energy at local, regional and national levels to ensure the overall stability of the energy system. • Distributed and central assets will be connected, in front of and behind the meter.