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Assessing the impact of electricity trades restriction in achieving the carbon neutrality of the EU power system

IEA-ETSAP
IEA-ETSAP

Assessing the impact of electricity trades restriction in achieving the carbon neutrality of the EU power system Gildas Siggini, MINES PARISTECH

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Assessing the impact of electricity trades
restriction in achieving the carbon neutrality of
the EU power system
Gildas SIGGINI1, Edi ASSOUMOU1, Sophie DEMASSEY1
78th Semi-annual ETSAP workshop
16th -17th Dec. 2020
1 Centre de MathématiquesAppliquées, France,
2
The European power system
There is a need to think about the evolution of European electric systems as a whole:
➢ Highly interconnected grid with strong interdependencies
➢ Increased flexiliblity and adequacy concerns due to highVRES penetration
➢ Common environmental targets: the burden sharing issue
➢ Long term climate incertitudes
The Clim2Power project
Center for Applied Mathematics - MINES ParisTech3
Long term climate models → planning and future investment
needs
The eTIMES-EU model
Center for Applied Mathematics - MINES ParisTech4
▪ Spatial resolution
The eTIMES-EU model
Center for Applied Mathematics - MINES ParisTech5
▪ Temporal resolution
➢ Conservation of the intra-daily and weekly
dynamics
➢ 64 times slices per region (before further
extensions)
Some results of Clim2Power project
Center for Applied Mathematics - MINES ParisTech6
Impact of climate variability on VRES share
22 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 EURO-CORDEX long-term
projections

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Assessing the impact of electricity trades restriction in achieving the carbon neutrality of the EU power system

  • 1. Assessing the impact of electricity trades restriction in achieving the carbon neutrality of the EU power system Gildas SIGGINI1, Edi ASSOUMOU1, Sophie DEMASSEY1 78th Semi-annual ETSAP workshop 16th -17th Dec. 2020 1 Centre de MathématiquesAppliquées, France,
  • 2. 2 The European power system There is a need to think about the evolution of European electric systems as a whole: ➢ Highly interconnected grid with strong interdependencies ➢ Increased flexiliblity and adequacy concerns due to highVRES penetration ➢ Common environmental targets: the burden sharing issue ➢ Long term climate incertitudes
  • 3. The Clim2Power project Center for Applied Mathematics - MINES ParisTech3 Long term climate models → planning and future investment needs
  • 4. The eTIMES-EU model Center for Applied Mathematics - MINES ParisTech4 ▪ Spatial resolution
  • 5. The eTIMES-EU model Center for Applied Mathematics - MINES ParisTech5 ▪ Temporal resolution ➢ Conservation of the intra-daily and weekly dynamics ➢ 64 times slices per region (before further extensions)
  • 6. Some results of Clim2Power project Center for Applied Mathematics - MINES ParisTech6 Impact of climate variability on VRES share 22 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 EURO-CORDEX long-term projections
  • 7. 7 22 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 EURO-CORDEX long-term projections Min. Max. More on www.clim2power.com Impact of climate variability on electricity trades Some results of Clim2Power project
  • 8. 8 The evolution of trades Increase of Import/Load ratio in exporting regions today How restrictions on trades impact the decarbonisation?
  • 9. 9 Scenarii description Default hypotheses: - Demand from EU Reference Scenario - Country specific development rhythms calibrated with historical values - Announced coal phase outs arrive at planned date - No targets on France nuclear activity - Renewable potentials calibrated with JRC-ENSPRESO - Fuel and technology costs calibrated with IRENA andWEO2016 Evaluating 2050 carbon neutrality pathways for different trade scenarios Scenario Free trade: No limitation on the imported volume in each country Scenario Conservative: The current ratio Import/Load is kept throughout the horizon Scenario UP-{x}%: Imported volume ceils to {x}% of the demand from 2030 to 2050 in countries where lower. (Cases for x ∈ {5, 15, 25, 35}) Scenario UP-50%: Imported volume ceils to 50% of the demand from 2030 to 2050 in all countries
  • 10. Results Center for Applied Mathematics - MINES ParisTech10 Electricity flows comparision in 2050 -50%
  • 11. Results 11 FREE TRADE CONSERVATIVE Electricity flows comparision in 2050- Germany Center for Applied Mathematics - MINES ParisTech
  • 12. Conclusions & future work 12 Conclusions - A conservative scenario would drive to 50% less electricity traded on the grid - More investment burden supported by specific countries (6 times higher in SI) - Increased overall total system discounted costs of 15 billion euros Future work - Assess current policy orientations - Use long term climate projections with the conservative scenario Thank you for your attention