- overview of the world's energy system - future energy system modelling for the uK - preliminary future energy system analysis for Taiwan

1. ENERGY SYSTEMS TRANSITION TO
NET ZERO:
FROM UK’S PATHWAYS TO SEE THE CHALLENGES AND
OPPORTUNITIES FOR TAIWAN
1st July 2022
Dr. Barton (Yi-Chung) Chen
Postdoctoral Research Fellow
Future Earth Taipei - Early Career Researchers

2. Outline
• Overview of the energy system
• Future energy system modelling – UK
• Preliminary future energy system analysis for Taiwan

3. Energy and global warming

4. Whole system approach: UK’s energy flow (2020)
Source: National Grid; Future Energy Scenarios (2021)

6. How to achieve net-zero: Key pillars of
decarbonisation
Source: Net Zero by 2050 – A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector; IEA 2021

7. Future Energy Scenario: Leading the way
Source: National Grid; Future Energy Scenarios (2021)

8. Key factors for future energy system simulation
• Energy demand:
– Changes with economic activities
– Energy efficiency improvement
– Use of low-carbon energy/technology (e.g. EVs, heat pumps, hydrogen …)
• Energy generation:
– Estimate the future energy generation mix by considering the potential installed
capacity of low-carbon energy sources (e.g. wind, solar, nuclear…)
• Balancing:
– Estimate the deployment supply/demand balancing systems (e.g. interconnector,
energy storage, demand side response…)
– Simulate the operation of balancing systems

9. Today & future energy demand profiles (daily)
Source: energy service demand analysis (Barton and Jonathan)
Heating: gas, electric, heat pump, hydrogen boiler
Transport: fossil fuel based vehicle, EV, fuel cell vehicle

10. Future electricity demand and energy
generation (wind, solar, nuclear)
• Wind, solar, and nuclear have low marginal cost and not suitable for
fast-response and power reserve.

11. Electricity residual load analysis
• Residual load = (electricity demand) – (wind/solar/nuclear generation)
• Highest positive residual load: minimum capacity for power reserve (e.g. CCGT, coal,
energy storage, interconnector, DSR, hydrogen turbine…)
• Negative residual load: surplus energy generation to be export, stored in storage,
power-to-X, curtailment…

12. Energy system simulation –
Python for Power System Analysis (open-modelling)

13. Taiwan’s energy flow diagram

14. Simple Taiwan energy demand/supply analysis (hourly)
Taiwan 2030 (demand x 1.2) solar 30 GW, wind 14 GW
Taiwan 2050 (demand x 1.8) solar 60 GW, wind 48 GW
Taiwan 2020 solar 7.7 GW, wind 0.9 GW
Demand Solar
wind

15. Net-zero energy challenges: UK vs. Taiwan
UK Taiwan
Main low-carbon
energy source
Wind power (60-80%) in 2050 60-70% from wind and solar (around 1:1) in 2050
Peak energy
demand season
Winter; 2-3 times higher than summer Summer; 1.5 times higher than winter
Key decarbonisation
challenges
Decarbonise heating; long distance transport Renewable energy not enough to meet demand in
2050; Duck curve (high residual load after sunset)
Demand change due
to climate change
Heating demand may reduce; energy for
cooling may increase in summer
Increase of cooling demand
Energy balancing
requirement
Seasonal; wind power intermittency Less seasonal variation; high solar generation
variation within a day or days
Opportunity for Taiwan:
• Most energy consumption in the form of electricity
• Less seasonal demand difference
• Demand is lower in winter while global energy demand is high
• Potential to export energy (green hydrogen) in winter

16. Key messages for energy system modelling
• Energy system modelling can provide evidence in the decision making
process and therefore reduce the time and costs in the transition to net-
zero.
• One the key challenge in (future) energy system modelling is get the
right inputs and realistic assumptions.
• No single model is perfect; diversity in energy system modelling can
help us to understand the whole system better.

17. Barton (Yi-Chung) Chen 陳奕仲
E-mail: y.chen7@exeter.ac.uk
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bartonchen/
Twitter: @BartonChenTW

18. Societal change vs. decarbonisation speed
Source: National Grid; Future
Energy Scenarios (2021)

19. Example of energy system simulation tool

20. National Grid: FES 2021
consumer
transformation
(2050)
system
transformation
(2050)
leading the way
(2050)
low-temperature heat gas 0% 0% 0%
electric heating 10% 5% 5%
heat pump 85% 45% 70%
hydrogen 5% 50% 25%
high-temperature gas 5% 5% 5%
electric heating 90% 35% 65%
hydrogen 5% 60% 30%
transport petro 0% 0% 0%
electricity 80% 65% 75%
hydrogen 20% 35% 25%
transport heat electric heating 50% 50% 50%
heat pump 50% 50% 50%
National Grid: FES 2021
consumer
transformation
(2030)
system
transformation
(2030)
leading the way
(2030)
low-temperature heat gas 81% 83% 73%
electric heating 5% 5% 5%
heat pump 6% 3% 11%
hydrogen 0% 0% 2%
high-temperature gas 90% 89% 90%
electric heating 10% 10% 10%
hydrogen 0% 1% 0%
transport petro 87% 94% 87%
electricity 12% 6% 13%
hydrogen 0% 0% 0%
transport heat electric heating 50% 50% 50%
heat pump 50% 50% 50%

21. How to make energy system become net-zero?
Source: Net Zero by 2050 – A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector; IEA 2021
Total energy supply in the scenario of “Net-Zero Emissions by 2050”, IEA (2021)

22. Future Energy Scenario: System Transformation
Source: National Grid; Future Energy Scenarios (2021)