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Dr Mike Pedley
EMEX 22 November 2018
Agenda
 Introductions
 Economics for on site renewables
 Costs, benefits and subsidies (or lack of them)
 Technologies
 Single technologies e.g. Solar PV, Wind, Hydro, AD
 Multi-renewables
 Storage & flexibility
 Commercial arrangements & options
 Solar PV
 Wind
 Hydro
 Anaerobic
Digestion
On Site Renewables: Introduction
On Site Renewables: Introduction
 Generation supplied “behind the meter”
 …or behind the substation
 Usually connected to load by private network
Grid Private (i.e. on-site)
Economics: Electricity Prices
 Wholesale: ‘static’ (2010-2017)
 Retail: rising steadily
 Within day volatility
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Electricity Wholesale v Retail costs (£/MWh)
W'sale
Retail
(industrial)
Economics: Electricity Prices
 Wholesale: ‘static’ (2010-2017)
 Retail: rising steadily
 Within day volatility
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Electricity Wholesale v Retail costs (£/MWh)
W'sale
Retail
(industrial)
-80.00
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
0:30
2:00
3:30
5:00
6:30
8:00
9:30
11:00
12:30
14:00
15:30
17:00
18:30
20:00
21:30
23:00
Half Hourly system prices: 28 Jul 2018
£/MWh
-100.00
-50.00
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
0:30
2:30
4:30
6:30
8:30
10:30
12:30
14:30
16:30
18:30
20:30
22:30
0:30
2:30
4:30
6:30
8:30
10:30
Half Hourly prices: 11-12 Oct 2018
£/MWh
Economics: Costs
 Wind and Solar costs falling
 e.g. BEIS Solar PV
 e.g. IRENA (International Renewable Energy Association)
 2015-2025 forecasts
 Offshore wind -35% £/MWh
 Solar PV – 59% £/MWh
 Hydro & AD: static or rising
 …very dependent upon site
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Solar PV Costs (4-50kW)
£/kW
Source: BEIS
Economics: Subsidies
 ROCs: closed (to new entrants)
 Feed in Tariff’s: going…
 …but not yet gone (end 31/3/19)
 NB Quotas full for Wind >100kW & standalone PV
 RHI (Renewable Heat Incentive): available for biogas (i.e. AD)
FiT tariffs (p/kWh)
To 31
Mar 19 2011
Solar PV < 50 kW (EPC D or better) 4.03 32.9
Solar PV 50 - 249 kW (EPC D or better) 1.69 30.7
Wind < 50 kW 8.24 25.3
Wind 50 - 99 kW 4.87 19.7
Hydro < 100 kW 8.03 18.7
Hydro 100 - 1999 kW 6.46 11.5
AD < 250 kW 4.50 14.0
AD 250-499 kW 4.27 13.0
Solar PV
 Quick to consent & install
 Low maintenance
 Costs falling
 Viable if there is an on site load (& economies of scale &/or storage)
Wind
 Slow (& risky) to develop
 Costs falling
 Economic without subsidy
 depending on scale & load
Hydro
 Well established (150+ years!)
 Long life & low maintenance (& compact)
 Energy recovery options
 E.g. Pump-As-Turbine
 Economics vary hugely
– assess case by case
AD
 Multiple fuel sources
 Food waste, farm waste, crops (e.g. maize), sewage biosolids
 Multiple output options
 Heat, gas, electricity
MaizeFood
Sewage
Combining Renewables
Gas
clean
upDigester
G
A
S
G
R
I
D
Thermal
Hydrolysis
Plant
E
L
E
C
T
R
I
C
I
T
Y
G
R
I
D
Gas
injection
Bio-
methane
300
l/s
Rawsewage(300l/s)
River Dee
propane
Boiler
2.5 MW Solar PV
CHP
FIVE
FORDS
WWTW
Sludge
imports
Heat
Combining Renewables
Gas
clean
upDigester
G
A
S
G
R
I
D
Thermal
Hydrolysis
Plant
E
L
E
C
T
R
I
C
I
T
Y
G
R
I
D
Gas
injection
Bio-
methane
300
l/s
Rawsewage(300l/s)
River Dee
propane
300
l/s
Boiler
0.5 – 1 MW
Wind
2.5 MW Solar PV
CHP
FIVE
FORDS
WWTW
Sludge
imports
Heat
Battery?30kW
hydro
Biogas Clean-up
(membrane plant)
Grid Entry Unit
Propane
Plant
Gas holder
Digesters
CHP
Combining Renewables
 Flexibility
 Matching generation
to load
10,000 solar panels
Flexibility & Storage
 Design for flexibility
 fuel storage, energy storage, load mgt
 Various Income streams
 Products
 National Grid; Supplier; DNO products
 e.g. frequency response
 Prices / HH trading
-80.00
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
0:30
2:00
3:30
5:00
6:30
8:00
9:30
11:00
12:30
14:00
15:30
17:00
18:30
20:00
21:30
23:00
Half Hourly system prices: 28 Jul 2018
£/MWh
-100.00
-50.00
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
0:30
2:30
4:30
6:30
8:30
10:30
12:30
14:30
16:30
18:30
20:30
22:30
0:30
2:30
4:30
6:30
8:30
10:30
Half Hourly prices: 11-12 Oct 2018
£/MWh
Commercials & Options
 Self invest or 3rd party funded?
 Maintenance & Asset life
 Build or Acquire?
 Private wire PPAs
Private (i.e. on-site)
On site Renewables:
Are they still worth the effort?
 ‘Matching’ technology & generation to load
 Flexibility enhances value
 Subsidy opportunities may still be available
 …for Feed in Tariffs sites must be live by 31 March 2019
 Consider alternative commercial arrangements
FiT tariffs (p/kWh)
To 31
Mar 19 2011
Solar PV < 50 kW (EPC D or better) 4.03 32.9
Solar PV 50 - 249 kW (EPC D or better) 1.69 30.7
Wind < 50 kW 8.24 25.3
Wind 50 - 99 kW 4.87 19.7
Hydro < 100 kW 8.03 18.7
Hydro 100 - 1999 kW 6.46 11.5
AD < 250 kW 4.50 14.0
AD 250-499 kW 4.27 13.0
-80.00
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
0:30
2:00
3:30
5:00
6:30
8:00
9:30
11:00
12:30
14:00
15:30
17:00
18:30
20:00
21:30
23:00
Half Hourly system prices: 28 Jul 2018
£/MWh
Dr Mike Pedley
EMEX 22 November 2018

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On-Site Renewables in a Post-Subsidy Landscape

  • 1. Dr Mike Pedley EMEX 22 November 2018
  • 2. Agenda  Introductions  Economics for on site renewables  Costs, benefits and subsidies (or lack of them)  Technologies  Single technologies e.g. Solar PV, Wind, Hydro, AD  Multi-renewables  Storage & flexibility  Commercial arrangements & options
  • 3.  Solar PV  Wind  Hydro  Anaerobic Digestion On Site Renewables: Introduction
  • 4. On Site Renewables: Introduction  Generation supplied “behind the meter”  …or behind the substation  Usually connected to load by private network Grid Private (i.e. on-site)
  • 5. Economics: Electricity Prices  Wholesale: ‘static’ (2010-2017)  Retail: rising steadily  Within day volatility 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Electricity Wholesale v Retail costs (£/MWh) W'sale Retail (industrial)
  • 6. Economics: Electricity Prices  Wholesale: ‘static’ (2010-2017)  Retail: rising steadily  Within day volatility 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Electricity Wholesale v Retail costs (£/MWh) W'sale Retail (industrial) -80.00 -60.00 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 0:30 2:00 3:30 5:00 6:30 8:00 9:30 11:00 12:30 14:00 15:30 17:00 18:30 20:00 21:30 23:00 Half Hourly system prices: 28 Jul 2018 £/MWh -100.00 -50.00 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 0:30 2:30 4:30 6:30 8:30 10:30 12:30 14:30 16:30 18:30 20:30 22:30 0:30 2:30 4:30 6:30 8:30 10:30 Half Hourly prices: 11-12 Oct 2018 £/MWh
  • 7. Economics: Costs  Wind and Solar costs falling  e.g. BEIS Solar PV  e.g. IRENA (International Renewable Energy Association)  2015-2025 forecasts  Offshore wind -35% £/MWh  Solar PV – 59% £/MWh  Hydro & AD: static or rising  …very dependent upon site 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Solar PV Costs (4-50kW) £/kW Source: BEIS
  • 8. Economics: Subsidies  ROCs: closed (to new entrants)  Feed in Tariff’s: going…  …but not yet gone (end 31/3/19)  NB Quotas full for Wind >100kW & standalone PV  RHI (Renewable Heat Incentive): available for biogas (i.e. AD) FiT tariffs (p/kWh) To 31 Mar 19 2011 Solar PV < 50 kW (EPC D or better) 4.03 32.9 Solar PV 50 - 249 kW (EPC D or better) 1.69 30.7 Wind < 50 kW 8.24 25.3 Wind 50 - 99 kW 4.87 19.7 Hydro < 100 kW 8.03 18.7 Hydro 100 - 1999 kW 6.46 11.5 AD < 250 kW 4.50 14.0 AD 250-499 kW 4.27 13.0
  • 9. Solar PV  Quick to consent & install  Low maintenance  Costs falling  Viable if there is an on site load (& economies of scale &/or storage)
  • 10. Wind  Slow (& risky) to develop  Costs falling  Economic without subsidy  depending on scale & load
  • 11. Hydro  Well established (150+ years!)  Long life & low maintenance (& compact)  Energy recovery options  E.g. Pump-As-Turbine  Economics vary hugely – assess case by case
  • 12. AD  Multiple fuel sources  Food waste, farm waste, crops (e.g. maize), sewage biosolids  Multiple output options  Heat, gas, electricity MaizeFood Sewage
  • 15. Biogas Clean-up (membrane plant) Grid Entry Unit Propane Plant Gas holder Digesters CHP Combining Renewables  Flexibility  Matching generation to load 10,000 solar panels
  • 16. Flexibility & Storage  Design for flexibility  fuel storage, energy storage, load mgt  Various Income streams  Products  National Grid; Supplier; DNO products  e.g. frequency response  Prices / HH trading -80.00 -60.00 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 0:30 2:00 3:30 5:00 6:30 8:00 9:30 11:00 12:30 14:00 15:30 17:00 18:30 20:00 21:30 23:00 Half Hourly system prices: 28 Jul 2018 £/MWh -100.00 -50.00 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 0:30 2:30 4:30 6:30 8:30 10:30 12:30 14:30 16:30 18:30 20:30 22:30 0:30 2:30 4:30 6:30 8:30 10:30 Half Hourly prices: 11-12 Oct 2018 £/MWh
  • 17. Commercials & Options  Self invest or 3rd party funded?  Maintenance & Asset life  Build or Acquire?  Private wire PPAs Private (i.e. on-site)
  • 18. On site Renewables: Are they still worth the effort?  ‘Matching’ technology & generation to load  Flexibility enhances value  Subsidy opportunities may still be available  …for Feed in Tariffs sites must be live by 31 March 2019  Consider alternative commercial arrangements FiT tariffs (p/kWh) To 31 Mar 19 2011 Solar PV < 50 kW (EPC D or better) 4.03 32.9 Solar PV 50 - 249 kW (EPC D or better) 1.69 30.7 Wind < 50 kW 8.24 25.3 Wind 50 - 99 kW 4.87 19.7 Hydro < 100 kW 8.03 18.7 Hydro 100 - 1999 kW 6.46 11.5 AD < 250 kW 4.50 14.0 AD 250-499 kW 4.27 13.0 -80.00 -60.00 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 0:30 2:00 3:30 5:00 6:30 8:00 9:30 11:00 12:30 14:00 15:30 17:00 18:30 20:00 21:30 23:00 Half Hourly system prices: 28 Jul 2018 £/MWh
  • 19. Dr Mike Pedley EMEX 22 November 2018