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NewBase 29 December 2015 - Issue No. 757 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE fuel prices fall for fifth month in a row in January-2016
The National - LeAnne Graves
Motorists will once again pay less for petrol and diesel next month. From January 1, petrol
products will be 6 per cent lower compared with this month, while diesel will be 12 per cent
cheaper.
This means that Super will cost Dh1.69 a litre
compared with Dh1.79 in December, Special will
be Dh1.58 compared to Dh1.68, diesel Dh1.61
compared to Dh1.83, and E Plus is to fall to
Dh1.51 from Dh1.61.
Since August the price of Super has decreased
over 24 per cent, Special has dropped by 26 per
cent, E Plus is down 27 per cent and diesel has
fallen more than 21 per cent. Four months ago,
the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark,
was near US$50, but now it has fallen to around
$37. Brent has fallen 16 per cent alone since the
start of the month.
When the Energy Ministry announced that it
would liberalise the pricing of fuel from August,
which has led to a reduction in fuel subsidies,
fears grew that fuel costs would increase.
However, the exact opposite has happened in
line with the falling oil prices.
Abu Dhabi resident Maddelyn Bal, 25, of the United States, arrived to the UAE on August 1, the
day that the new pricing structure was implemented. And while she fills up on Super at least once
a week, spending between Dh80-90, she hasn’t noticed the change. “I don’t necessarily see a
change,” she said.
For Dubai-based Qmega Energy Innovations, an energy solutions provider, transportation costs
have noticeably declined. “Transportation costs have definitely come down. While it is a small
percentage of our overall cost structure, it is reduced,” said Omer Ghani, chief executive of
Qmega. “It’s not down 27 per cent, but definitely a portion of that.”
Matar Al Neyadi, undersecretary of the Energy Ministry, said last week in Abu Dhabi that fuel
prices were connected to other market elements such as the time of year – winter versus summer
– as well as the price in Brent crude. “So a lot of importance has come in to determine the price of
gasoline,” he said.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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Bahrain cabinet approves new diesel, kerosene pricing system — BNA
Reuters + NewBase
Bahrain’s cabinet has approved a new pricing system for diesel and kerosene that is set to begin
in January, state news agency BNA reported on Monday. The new pricing system is expected to
result in a “gradual increase” in the cost of both fuels to domestic customers in the coming years,
as Bahrain adjusts its prices to reflect expected rises in other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
states.
“Bahrain continues to preserve its
competitiveness with the GCC even after the
adjustment of prices in diesel and kerosene
and will observe the gradual increase in diesel
fuel and kerosene over the coming years,”
said the statement, attributed to the kingdom’s
energy minister, Abdul Hussein Bin Ali Mirza.
The pricing system comes after a detailed
study with the relevant authorities and
parliamentary committees in the kingdom
“tasked with looking at subsidies and growing
government revenues”, said the statement.
The decision will benefit Bahrain’s national
economy and, at the same time, preserve the
interest of citizens, the statement added.
Bahrain’s government expects its budget
deficit to climb to $3.9 billion this year,
equivalent to 11.2 per cent of the country’s
GDP. The government expects to run a deficit
of 12.4 per cent of GDP in 2016. Some $2bn
of spending on energy subsidies is included in
the government’s estimates. Bahrain needs
the oil price to return to $82 per barrel to break
even, according to data from Deutsche Bank.
Both Bahrain has less than two years’ worth of cash reserves left at current levels of spending,
according to Deutsche Bank estimates. The IMF has repeatedly called on Gulf states to cut
spending on energy subsidies, and estimates that Middle East governments spend $250bn on
reducing fuel prices for consumers. But the IMF says that fuel subsidies mainly benefit the better
off, and are unaffordable when Gulf states are running significant deficits.
Masood Ahmed, the director of the Middle East at the IMF, said last month that the fall in oil prices
had led to “a shift in the sense of urgency” with which Gulf states need to begin cutting fuel
subsidies.
“Even before the fall in oil prices, a number of Gulf countries were spending more than would be
the optimal level, in terms of leaving enough resources for future generations,” he said. The
region’s governments have introduced measures to curtail spending on energy subsidies, but they
are likely to remain major budget line items for some time to come, analysts said.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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Saudis Plan Unprecedented Subsidy Cuts to Counter Oil Plunge
Bloomberg - Vivian Nereim
Confronting a drop in oil prices and mounting regional turmoil, Saudi Arabia reduced energy
subsidies and allocated the biggest part of government spending in next year’s budget to defense
and security.
Authorities announced increases to the
prices of fuel, electricity and water as part of
a plan to restructure subsidies within five
years. The government intends to cut
spending next year and gradually privatize
some state-owned entities and introduce
value-added taxation as well as a levy on
tobacco.
The biggest shake-up of Saudi economic
policy in recent history coincides with
growing regional unrest, including a war in
Yemen, where a Saudi-led coalition is battling pro-Iranian Shiite rebels. In attempting to reduce its
reliance on oil, the kingdom is seeking to put an end to the population’s dependence on
government handouts, a move that political analysts had considered risky after the 2011 revolts
that swept parts of the Middle East.
“This is the beginning of the end of the era of free money,” said Ghanem Nuseibeh, founder of
London-based consulting firm Cornerstone Global Associates. “Saudi society will have to get used
to a new way of working with the government. This is a wake-up call for both Saudi society and
the government that things are changing.”
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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Swift Changes
This is the first budget under King Salman, who ascended to the throne in January, and for an
economic council dominated by his increasingly powerful son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman. In its first months in power, the new administration brought swift change to the
traditionally slow-moving kingdom, overhauling the cabinet, merging ministries and realigning the
royal succession.
The new measures are the beginning of a “big program that the economic council will launch,”
Economy and Planning Minister Adel Fakeih told reporters in Riyadh. The subsidy cuts won’t have
a “large effect” on people with low or middle income, he said.
Shares in Saudi Electricity Co., the dominant electricity provider in the Arab world’s biggest
economy, surged 9.9 percent at the close in Riyadh before the subsidy measures were
announced. The benchmark Tadawul All Share Index gained 0.7 percent.
Bond Sales
The collapse in oil prices has slashed government revenue, forcing officials to draw on reserves
and issue bonds for the first time in nearly a decade. The government recorded a budget deficit of
367 billion riyals ($98 billion) in 2015. That’s about 16 percent of gross domestic product,
according to the National Bank of Abu Dhabi, but below the 20 percent forecast by the
International Monetary Fund.
For 2016, the government expects the deficit to narrow to 326 billion riyals. Spending, which
reached 975 billion riyals this year, is projected to drop to 840 billion riyals. Revenue is forecast to
decline to 513.8 billion riyals from 608 billion riyals.
Foreign Reserves
Oil made up 73 percent of this year’s revenue, according to the Finance Ministry. Non-oil income
rose 29 percent to 163.5 billion riyals.
Brent crude prices have plunged more than 35 percent over the past year, straining the public
finances of producers from Venezuela to Iraq. The foreign reserve assets of the Saudi central
bank dropped more than $95 billion in the first 11 months of this year to $627.7 billion.
Significant progress in economic diversification relies largely on policies put in place before the
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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price shock, according to an International Monetary Fund study released in December 2014. It
cited Dubai, the business hub of the United Arab Emirates, as the main successful example
among Gulf Arab monarchies.
Fiscal Reforms
“Next year will see continued administrative and fiscal reforms,” Fakeih, the economy minister,
said. He said that 20 billion riyals of this year’s spending overshoot was due to increase military
and security spending related to the operation in
Yemen.
For 2016, the government allocated 213 billion
riyals for military and security spending, the largest
component of the budget as the kingdom fights a
war in Yemen against Shiite rebels. Monica Malik,
chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank,
said she believes “that the actual fall in expenditure
will be sharper than implied in the budget.”
“We believe that lower government spending will be
the key driver narrowing the fiscal deficit in 2016,
though further fiscal reforms are expected,” she
wrote in a note, forecasting a shortfall of 10.8 percent of gross domestic product in 2016.
The outlook for 2016 relies on a number of “unknowns,” Nasser Saidi, president of Nasser Saidi &
Associates, said by phone, listing the war in Yemen, the direction of oil prices and the scale of
subsidy reductions as key factors.
A Breakdown of the 2016 Saudi Budget and Its Implications
Saudi Arabia released a more tightfisted budget for 2016, reflecting scaled-back revenue
expectations and lower spending on subsidies because of sinking oil prices and its involvement in
the war in neighboring Yemen. Here are some key points in the first spending plan under King
Salman, released on Monday by the Ministry of Finance:
DEFICIT
The government forecasts the deficit will narrow to 326.2 billion riyals ($87 billion) in 2016, from
367 billion riyals this year.
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The 2015 deficit is about 16 percent of gross domestic product, according to Alp Eke, senior
economist at National Bank of Abu Dhabi. The median estimate of 10 economists forecast a
shortfall of 20 percent of GDP this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
REVENUE
Seventy-three percent of this year’s 608 billion riyals in revenue came from oil, down 23 percent
from 2014 and below the 715 billion riyal target. The government says it may resort to local and
foreign borrowing to bridge the budget deficit.
For 2016, the government estimates revenue of 513.8 billion riyals. It allocated 183 billion riyals in
provisions for low oil prices in 2016.
SPENDING
The government plans to spend 840 billion riyals in 2016 compared with 975
billion riyals this year. The biggest ticket in the budget was 213 billion riyals
allocated for military and security services.
Economy Minister Adel Fakeih said Monday that 20 billion riyals of this year’s spending overshoot
was due to increased military and security spending related to the military operation against Shiite
Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The Ministry of Finance said its 2016 budget is based on “extremely low oil prices” that prompted
Gulf states to cut spending.
SHORING UP FINANCES
The government, headed by King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, pledged to take action to shore
up public finances, including the possible sale of government entities and the revision of fuel,
water and power subsidies over the next five years.
It immediately rolled out the first batch of revisions after the budget announcement, raising the
prices of water and electricity supplied to households and the cost of gasoline, ethane and gas.
The revisions focused on “directing subsidies to those who really deserve it,” Fakeih said.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Saudi Arabia Plans Subsidy Cuts as King Unveils 2016 Budget
Saudi Arabia said it plans to gradually cut subsidies and sell stakes in government entities as it
seeks to counter a slump in oil revenue.
The government expects the 2016 budget deficit to narrow to 326 billion riyals ($87 billion) from
367 billion in 2015. Spending, which reached 975 billion riyals this year, is projected to drop to 840
billion. Revenue is forecast to decline to 513.8 billion riyals from 608 billion riyals.
The budget is the first under King Salman, who ascended to the throne in January, and an
economic council dominated by his increasingly powerful son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman. The collapse in oil prices has slashed government revenue, forcing officials to draw
on reserves and issue bonds for the first time in nearly a decade.
“The budget was approved amid challenging economic and financial circumstances in the region
and the world,” the Finance Ministry said in a statement. “The deficit will be financed through a
plan that considers the best available options, including domestic and external borrowing.”
Below Estimates
The 2015 deficit is about 16 percent of gross domestic product, according to Alp Eke, senior
economist at National Bank of Abu Dhabi. The median estimate of 10 economists in a Bloomberg
survey was a shortfall of 20 percent. Oil made up 73 percent of this year’s revenue, according to
the Finance Ministry. Non-oil income rose 29 percent to 163.5 billion riyals.
The government has managed to reign in “some spending in the second half of the year,” Monica
Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, said by phone. “With the further fiscal
retrenchment that we expect in 2016, we think that the fiscal deficit should narrow to about 10.8%
of GDP.”
For 2016, the government allocated 213 billion riyals for military and security spending, the largest
component of the budget as the kingdom fights a war in Yemen against Shiite rebels.
“In terms of defense expenditure in particular there’s the burden of the war in Yemen,” Nasser
Saidi, president of Nasser Saidi & Associates, said by phone. The outcome for 2016 depends on
“the course of the war in Yemen, oil prices, how much will subsidies actually get reduced, how
effective are they in reigning in public spending and rationalizing some of the spending on large
projects, and finally how good are they at reigning in current spending,” he said.
Swift Changes
In its first months in power, King Salman’s administration brought swift change to the traditionally
slow-moving kingdom, overhauling the cabinet, merging ministries and realigning the royal
succession.
The financial crunch imposed by cheaper oil means the focus is now shifting to economic reforms
that the kingdom will carry out over the next five years. The government plans to privatize “several
sectors” and “amend the programs of oil, water and electricity subsidies through re-pricing them
gradually over the coming five years,” the ministry said.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Iraq lures Exxon, Petrochina for southern energy projects
Reuters + NewBase
Iraq, Opec’s second-largest producer, has approached PetroChina and ExxonMobil about
investing in a multibillion-dollar project to boost output from its smaller southern oilfields, a senior
Iraqi oil official said.
State-run South Oil Co (SOC) is seeking
investment from either or both of the
companies to build infrastructure needed
to raise output at fields it operates, SOC
deputy chairman Basim Abdul Kareem told
Reuters.
A sharp fall in crude oil prices since mid-
2014 has hurt Baghdad’s ability to fund
oilfield development and foreign
investments are needed, he said. The
enhanced recovery project targets the
Luhais, Nassiriya, Tuba, Nahr Bin Umar
and Artawi oilfields, he said.
They are producing about 240,000 bpd
currently and SOC’s initial plan calls for
raising that to about 350,000 bpd in 2016.
The “Integrated South Project” consists of building oil pipelines, storage facilities and a seawater
supply project to inject water from the Gulf to maintain pressure and enhance oil recovery, he
said.
The seawater project will also be used to overcome declining production rates at larger fields such
as West Qurna, Majnoon, Zubair and Rumaila, operated by oil majors such as BP, Royal Dutch
Shell, Eni and Lukoil.
“Due to the current financial crisis caused by the falling oil prices, we established the ‘Integrated
South Project’ to attract financiers and investors to help us increase our production and complete
these vital energy projects,” Abdul Kareem said. “We are still discussing technical aspects of the
project which will be followed by studying financial and contractual issues.”
The contract model will be discussed with the companies and the oil ministry in Baghdad after the
technical talks, he said.
“Definitely, it will not be a service contract” where the companies would get a fixed dollar fee per
barrel, he said. “We prefer a contract that could be profitable for all parties even under low oil
prices,” he added, declining to say whether production-sharing contracts would be considered.
Companies favour production-sharing deals where they recoup their investment with oil produced,
as this model allows them to book their share in the oilfield on their balance sheets, increasing
their assets.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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“We are seeking both companies or either one to accept the project,” said Abdul Kareem,
declining to say how advanced the talks were. Petrochina has shown more interest than Exxon in
the project, another SOC official said, declining to be identified.
The two companies were approached because they are developing the West Qurna phase 1
oilfield that needs water injection to halt a decline in production, said the official. Oil sales
generate 95% of Iraq’s revenue and a price fall to less than $40 per barrel from $115 in mid-2014
has hit hard.
Iraq’s production stagnated for years due to wars and sanctions but started to rise in 2010 after
Baghdad secured service contracts with companies including BP Plc, Exxon Mobil, Eni and Royal
Dutch Shell.
They are paid a fixed-dollar fee for production, a formula that has became difficult for Iraq with oil
prices so low. Exports rose to a decades-high average of 3.37mn bpd in November with output at
3.66mn bpd, ministry data showed.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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India: GAIL India May Pick Up 5% Stake in TAPI Consortium
Press Trust India + NewBase
GAIL India Ltd is expected to pick up 5 percent stake in the consortium that is building the
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline, Press Trust of India reported
Sunday.
The much delayed TAPI gas pipeline project was formally inaugurated on December 13.
The ground breaking ceremony,
which was held in Mary in the
southeastern part of
Turkmenistan, was attended by
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani
along with Turkmenistan
President Gurbanguly Berdy
muhamedov, Pakistan Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif and Indian
Vice President Muhammad
Hamid Ansari.
TurkmenGaz will be the leader of
the consortium and shall take 85
percent equity. Along with GAIL
India, ISGS of Pakistan and
Afghan Gas Enterprise (AGE) will
also take 5 percent stake each, Press Trust reported.
A government official told Press Trust that Kabul is now willing to take only 1.5-4 mmscmd of gas
so the share of India and Pakistan will go up to 43-44.25 mmscmd each . As per the original deal,
India and Pakistan were to get 38 mmscmd each while the remaining 14 mmscmd was to be
supplied to Afghanistan.
An inter-government Joint Security Task Force (JSTF) will be raised which will serve as nucleus of
the pipeline’s security programme, the official said. The international consortium building the USD
8.7 billion Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline.
The four nations building the pipeline had in August agreed to co-own the project and a joint
venture company with participation of each country is to be set up to build and operate the 1,814-
kilometre line.
“Turkmenistan’s state-owned TurkmenGaz will be the leader of the consortium and shall take 85
per cent equity. India will be represented by GAIL which will take a 5 per cent interest”, a senior
government official said. ISGS of Pakistan and Afghan Gas Enterprise (AGE) will also take 5 per
cent stake each.
The TAPI pipeline will have a capacity to carry 90 million standard cubic metres a day (mmscmd)
gas for 30 years and is planned to become operational in 2018. India and Pakistan were originally
to get 38 mmscmd each while the remaining 14 mmscmd was to be supplied to Afghanistan.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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But Kabul is now willing to take only 1.5-4 mmscmd so the share of India and Pakistan will go up
to 43-44.25 mmscmd each, he said. TAPI will carry gas from Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh field,
better known by its previous name South Yolotan Osman, that holds gas reserves of 16 trillion
cubic feet.
From the field, the pipeline will run to Herat and Kandahar province of Afghanistan, before
entering Pakistan. In Pakistan, it will reach Multan via Quetta before ending at Fazilka (Punjab) in
India.
Turkmenistan on December 13 began work on the 214 km section of the pipeline in its territory.
The pipeline will travel 773 km in Afghanistan and 827 km in Pakistan before touching Indian
border.
For the security of the pipeline, the official said an inter-government Joint Security Task Force
(JSTF) will be raised which will serve as nucleus of the security programme.
Exact role and responsibilities in each host country are being worked out, he said adding a team
would also be established to ensure operational continuity and which is capable of rapid repair of
critical facilities and equipment in case of sabotage or accident.
The four nation consortium was stitched as no reputed international firm was willing to take lead in
construction and operation of the pipeline.
French giant Total SA had initially shown interest in leading a consortium of national oil companies
of the four nations in the TAPI project. It, however, backed off after Turkmenistan refused to
accept its condition of a stake in the gas field that will feed the pipeline.
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NewBase 29 December - 2015 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil prices edge down as slowing demand adds to high output
Reuters + NewBase
Crude oil futures came under renewed pressure early on Tuesday as fears of slowing demand
added to near-record global production levels, which have already slashed prices by two-thirds
since the middle of last year.
Front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were trading at $36.75 per barrel at
0105 GMT, down 6 cents from Monday's close. The international benchmark Brent was at $36.59
per barrel, down 3 cents from their last close and less than a dollar away from 11-year lows
reached earlier in December.
Both contracts are down by two-
thirds since prices started
tumbling in June 2014.
While output from exporters like
Russia, the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) and U.S. shale drillers
has been at or near record highs,
demand has so far held up strong,
preventing oil prices from falling
even lower.
Oil analysts JBC Energy said that refined oil "product demand growth in Europe turned negative in
October (-170,000 barrels per day year-on-year)" for the first time in 10 months and that diesel
and gasoline demand growth in China, one of the strongest price supporters of the past year, was
also slowing.
"The demand situation does not support a return to a higher price environment," derivatives
exchange CME Group said.
"China is still decelerating. Growth in emerging markets is slow. Europe may grow 1 percent to 2
percent in real GDP terms, the U.S. a little better, and Japan a little less.
No major demand surges here," it said, adding that demand was also sagging due to improving
transport efficiency.
One change in oil trading has been that WTI flipped to a premium versus Brent this month after
the United States lifted a decades-old ban on exporting U.S. crude oil.
Oil price special
coverage
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Analysts expect this price structure to stay in place, especially should global markets suffer from
slowing demand and ongoing high supplies while the United States tightens.
U.S. shale drillers have piled up huge amounts of debt and are struggling to stay in business as
low prices hit their revenues and ability to pay down loans.
"The ongoing low oil-price environment points furiously towards a rough 2016 for U.S. producers,"
oil analysis firm ClipperData said, with some estimates pointing to a 500,000 barrels per day (bpd)
fall in U.S. production in 2016.
However, with most analysts estimating global production exceeding demand by at least that
amount and perhaps even more than 2 million bpd, even such a cut in the U.S. would unlikely be
enough to fully rebalance world oil supply and demand.
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NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 01 Dec.. 2015
Iran Adding to Global Oil Glut Dims Hopes for Recovery Next Year
Bloomberg - Mark Shenk
Investors are losing faith in an oil-price recovery next year as Iran prepares to add more crude to a
global glut. That’s good news for American drivers who have enjoyed the lowest gasoline prices in
six years.
Hedge funds reduced bets on rising prices to a three-month low and kept bearish wagers near a
record high in the week ended Dec. 22, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading
Commission show.
Oil fell to the lowest level in more than six years on Dec. 21 amid speculation suppliers from the
Middle East to the U.S. will exacerbate a glut as they fight for market share. Iran, which expects
sanctions over its nuclear program to be lifted by the first week of January, has secured
customers for its planned supply expansion, an Iranian oil official said this month. U.S. pump
prices have followed crude lower, giving consumers extra money to spend during the holidays.
“There’s every reason to be bearish,” said Tom Finlon, Jupiter, Florida-based director of Energy
Analytics Group LLC. “As we approach the end of December, there’s more attention being paid to
the expected return of Iranian barrels adding to the glut in supply.” WTI fell 3.2 percent to $36.14 a
barrel in the report week on the New York Mercantile Exchange and traded at $36.85 a barrel as
of 12:05 p.m. in Singapore on Tuesday.
The average price of regular U.S. gasoline slipped to 1.998 a gallon on Dec. 20, the first time
below $2 since 2009, according to Heathrow, Florida-based AAA.
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Iranian Priority
Iran’s priority is to boost shipments to pre-sanction levels, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh
said, according to the state-backed IRNA news agency. The nation sees the potential for further
oil-price declines as it plans to boost supply amid a lack of OPEC cooperation, said Rokneddin
Javadi, head of National Iranian Oil Co., according to the Shana news agency.
The Iranian government plans to add 500,000 barrels a day of exports within a week of the
removal of sanctions and 1 million within six month, said Javadi, who is also the country’s deputy
oil minister.
“There are fundamental elements that will put downward pressure on the market during the new
year,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that
focuses on energy. “The supply and demand outlook is negative.”
Speculators’ long positions in WTI fell by 3,198 contracts to 259,181 futures and options, CFTC
data show. Shorts rose 3.4 percent to 172,258, just short of the all-time high reached earlier this
month. Net-long positions fell 9.2 percent to 86,923.
Brent Crude
Money managers cut their bullish bets on Brent crude during the period. Speculators reduced net-
longs 3.4 percent to 166,034 contracts, according to data from ICE Futures Europe.
In other markets, net bearish wagers on U.S. ultra low sulfur diesel decreased 5.3 percent to
39,172 contracts. Diesel futures slipped 5.2 percent in the period. Net bullish bets on Nymex
gasoline slipped 9.7 percent to 21,385 contracts as futures declined 5.6 percent.
WTI climbed to a three-week high on Dec. 24 after U.S. crude inventories declined and drillers
idled rigs. Stockpiles should move higher in January because Gulf Coast refiners curb deliveries
at the end of the year to reduce local taxes, Kilduff said.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we start the year with an initial run to $40 before running out of steam,”
Kilduff said. “The first half of the year will be tough. I think we should make new lows and drop
below $30 when the refinery maintenance season begins.”
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16
Sinopec Plans to Double Fuling Shale Gas Capacity By 2017
Bloomberg - Winnie Zhu
China Petrochemical Corp., China’s second-biggest oil and gas producer, plans to double annual
shale gas production capacity at its Fuling project in southwest China in the next two years to 10
billion cubic meters.
The Beijing-based company known as Sinopec Group has steadily produced 15 million cubic
meters of shale gas a day at the site for more than a month, it said in an e-mailed statement on
Tuesday. Current gas production could meet daily gas demand of 30 million families, it said.
“The Fuling shale gas development model could be easily applied to similar projects in China, and
support the country’s large-scale exploration of the fuel,” deputy general manager Jiao Fangzheng
said in the statement.
The combined shale gas output from Sinopec Group and PetroChina Co., the country’s biggest oil
and gas producer, may reach 5.1 billion cubic meters this year, lagging China’s output target of
6.5 billion cubic meters, Bloomberg reported Dec. 9, citing people with direct knowledge of the
matter.
Proved shale gas reserves at Fuling more than tripled to 380.6 billion cubic meters making it the
world’s second-largest shale gas field outside North America, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.,
or Sinopec said Oct. 15. The project sits in mountainous rural Chongqing and has produced 3.9
billion cubic meters of the fuel since starting production, according to the Tuesday statement.
China’s total proven shale gas reserves are estimated at 500 billion cubic meters, according to the
Chinese Academy of Engineering.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, &
compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the
local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the
UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 29 December 2015 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18

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New base 757 special 29 december 2015

  • 1. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 29 December 2015 - Issue No. 757 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE fuel prices fall for fifth month in a row in January-2016 The National - LeAnne Graves Motorists will once again pay less for petrol and diesel next month. From January 1, petrol products will be 6 per cent lower compared with this month, while diesel will be 12 per cent cheaper. This means that Super will cost Dh1.69 a litre compared with Dh1.79 in December, Special will be Dh1.58 compared to Dh1.68, diesel Dh1.61 compared to Dh1.83, and E Plus is to fall to Dh1.51 from Dh1.61. Since August the price of Super has decreased over 24 per cent, Special has dropped by 26 per cent, E Plus is down 27 per cent and diesel has fallen more than 21 per cent. Four months ago, the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, was near US$50, but now it has fallen to around $37. Brent has fallen 16 per cent alone since the start of the month. When the Energy Ministry announced that it would liberalise the pricing of fuel from August, which has led to a reduction in fuel subsidies, fears grew that fuel costs would increase. However, the exact opposite has happened in line with the falling oil prices. Abu Dhabi resident Maddelyn Bal, 25, of the United States, arrived to the UAE on August 1, the day that the new pricing structure was implemented. And while she fills up on Super at least once a week, spending between Dh80-90, she hasn’t noticed the change. “I don’t necessarily see a change,” she said. For Dubai-based Qmega Energy Innovations, an energy solutions provider, transportation costs have noticeably declined. “Transportation costs have definitely come down. While it is a small percentage of our overall cost structure, it is reduced,” said Omer Ghani, chief executive of Qmega. “It’s not down 27 per cent, but definitely a portion of that.” Matar Al Neyadi, undersecretary of the Energy Ministry, said last week in Abu Dhabi that fuel prices were connected to other market elements such as the time of year – winter versus summer – as well as the price in Brent crude. “So a lot of importance has come in to determine the price of gasoline,” he said.
  • 2. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 Bahrain cabinet approves new diesel, kerosene pricing system — BNA Reuters + NewBase Bahrain’s cabinet has approved a new pricing system for diesel and kerosene that is set to begin in January, state news agency BNA reported on Monday. The new pricing system is expected to result in a “gradual increase” in the cost of both fuels to domestic customers in the coming years, as Bahrain adjusts its prices to reflect expected rises in other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. “Bahrain continues to preserve its competitiveness with the GCC even after the adjustment of prices in diesel and kerosene and will observe the gradual increase in diesel fuel and kerosene over the coming years,” said the statement, attributed to the kingdom’s energy minister, Abdul Hussein Bin Ali Mirza. The pricing system comes after a detailed study with the relevant authorities and parliamentary committees in the kingdom “tasked with looking at subsidies and growing government revenues”, said the statement. The decision will benefit Bahrain’s national economy and, at the same time, preserve the interest of citizens, the statement added. Bahrain’s government expects its budget deficit to climb to $3.9 billion this year, equivalent to 11.2 per cent of the country’s GDP. The government expects to run a deficit of 12.4 per cent of GDP in 2016. Some $2bn of spending on energy subsidies is included in the government’s estimates. Bahrain needs the oil price to return to $82 per barrel to break even, according to data from Deutsche Bank. Both Bahrain has less than two years’ worth of cash reserves left at current levels of spending, according to Deutsche Bank estimates. The IMF has repeatedly called on Gulf states to cut spending on energy subsidies, and estimates that Middle East governments spend $250bn on reducing fuel prices for consumers. But the IMF says that fuel subsidies mainly benefit the better off, and are unaffordable when Gulf states are running significant deficits. Masood Ahmed, the director of the Middle East at the IMF, said last month that the fall in oil prices had led to “a shift in the sense of urgency” with which Gulf states need to begin cutting fuel subsidies. “Even before the fall in oil prices, a number of Gulf countries were spending more than would be the optimal level, in terms of leaving enough resources for future generations,” he said. The region’s governments have introduced measures to curtail spending on energy subsidies, but they are likely to remain major budget line items for some time to come, analysts said.
  • 3. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 Saudis Plan Unprecedented Subsidy Cuts to Counter Oil Plunge Bloomberg - Vivian Nereim Confronting a drop in oil prices and mounting regional turmoil, Saudi Arabia reduced energy subsidies and allocated the biggest part of government spending in next year’s budget to defense and security. Authorities announced increases to the prices of fuel, electricity and water as part of a plan to restructure subsidies within five years. The government intends to cut spending next year and gradually privatize some state-owned entities and introduce value-added taxation as well as a levy on tobacco. The biggest shake-up of Saudi economic policy in recent history coincides with growing regional unrest, including a war in Yemen, where a Saudi-led coalition is battling pro-Iranian Shiite rebels. In attempting to reduce its reliance on oil, the kingdom is seeking to put an end to the population’s dependence on government handouts, a move that political analysts had considered risky after the 2011 revolts that swept parts of the Middle East. “This is the beginning of the end of the era of free money,” said Ghanem Nuseibeh, founder of London-based consulting firm Cornerstone Global Associates. “Saudi society will have to get used to a new way of working with the government. This is a wake-up call for both Saudi society and the government that things are changing.”
  • 4. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Swift Changes This is the first budget under King Salman, who ascended to the throne in January, and for an economic council dominated by his increasingly powerful son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In its first months in power, the new administration brought swift change to the traditionally slow-moving kingdom, overhauling the cabinet, merging ministries and realigning the royal succession. The new measures are the beginning of a “big program that the economic council will launch,” Economy and Planning Minister Adel Fakeih told reporters in Riyadh. The subsidy cuts won’t have a “large effect” on people with low or middle income, he said. Shares in Saudi Electricity Co., the dominant electricity provider in the Arab world’s biggest economy, surged 9.9 percent at the close in Riyadh before the subsidy measures were announced. The benchmark Tadawul All Share Index gained 0.7 percent. Bond Sales The collapse in oil prices has slashed government revenue, forcing officials to draw on reserves and issue bonds for the first time in nearly a decade. The government recorded a budget deficit of 367 billion riyals ($98 billion) in 2015. That’s about 16 percent of gross domestic product, according to the National Bank of Abu Dhabi, but below the 20 percent forecast by the International Monetary Fund. For 2016, the government expects the deficit to narrow to 326 billion riyals. Spending, which reached 975 billion riyals this year, is projected to drop to 840 billion riyals. Revenue is forecast to decline to 513.8 billion riyals from 608 billion riyals. Foreign Reserves Oil made up 73 percent of this year’s revenue, according to the Finance Ministry. Non-oil income rose 29 percent to 163.5 billion riyals. Brent crude prices have plunged more than 35 percent over the past year, straining the public finances of producers from Venezuela to Iraq. The foreign reserve assets of the Saudi central bank dropped more than $95 billion in the first 11 months of this year to $627.7 billion. Significant progress in economic diversification relies largely on policies put in place before the
  • 5. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 price shock, according to an International Monetary Fund study released in December 2014. It cited Dubai, the business hub of the United Arab Emirates, as the main successful example among Gulf Arab monarchies. Fiscal Reforms “Next year will see continued administrative and fiscal reforms,” Fakeih, the economy minister, said. He said that 20 billion riyals of this year’s spending overshoot was due to increase military and security spending related to the operation in Yemen. For 2016, the government allocated 213 billion riyals for military and security spending, the largest component of the budget as the kingdom fights a war in Yemen against Shiite rebels. Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, said she believes “that the actual fall in expenditure will be sharper than implied in the budget.” “We believe that lower government spending will be the key driver narrowing the fiscal deficit in 2016, though further fiscal reforms are expected,” she wrote in a note, forecasting a shortfall of 10.8 percent of gross domestic product in 2016. The outlook for 2016 relies on a number of “unknowns,” Nasser Saidi, president of Nasser Saidi & Associates, said by phone, listing the war in Yemen, the direction of oil prices and the scale of subsidy reductions as key factors. A Breakdown of the 2016 Saudi Budget and Its Implications Saudi Arabia released a more tightfisted budget for 2016, reflecting scaled-back revenue expectations and lower spending on subsidies because of sinking oil prices and its involvement in the war in neighboring Yemen. Here are some key points in the first spending plan under King Salman, released on Monday by the Ministry of Finance: DEFICIT The government forecasts the deficit will narrow to 326.2 billion riyals ($87 billion) in 2016, from 367 billion riyals this year.
  • 6. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 The 2015 deficit is about 16 percent of gross domestic product, according to Alp Eke, senior economist at National Bank of Abu Dhabi. The median estimate of 10 economists forecast a shortfall of 20 percent of GDP this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. REVENUE Seventy-three percent of this year’s 608 billion riyals in revenue came from oil, down 23 percent from 2014 and below the 715 billion riyal target. The government says it may resort to local and foreign borrowing to bridge the budget deficit. For 2016, the government estimates revenue of 513.8 billion riyals. It allocated 183 billion riyals in provisions for low oil prices in 2016. SPENDING The government plans to spend 840 billion riyals in 2016 compared with 975 billion riyals this year. The biggest ticket in the budget was 213 billion riyals allocated for military and security services. Economy Minister Adel Fakeih said Monday that 20 billion riyals of this year’s spending overshoot was due to increased military and security spending related to the military operation against Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Ministry of Finance said its 2016 budget is based on “extremely low oil prices” that prompted Gulf states to cut spending. SHORING UP FINANCES The government, headed by King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, pledged to take action to shore up public finances, including the possible sale of government entities and the revision of fuel, water and power subsidies over the next five years. It immediately rolled out the first batch of revisions after the budget announcement, raising the prices of water and electricity supplied to households and the cost of gasoline, ethane and gas. The revisions focused on “directing subsidies to those who really deserve it,” Fakeih said.
  • 7. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Saudi Arabia Plans Subsidy Cuts as King Unveils 2016 Budget Saudi Arabia said it plans to gradually cut subsidies and sell stakes in government entities as it seeks to counter a slump in oil revenue. The government expects the 2016 budget deficit to narrow to 326 billion riyals ($87 billion) from 367 billion in 2015. Spending, which reached 975 billion riyals this year, is projected to drop to 840 billion. Revenue is forecast to decline to 513.8 billion riyals from 608 billion riyals. The budget is the first under King Salman, who ascended to the throne in January, and an economic council dominated by his increasingly powerful son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The collapse in oil prices has slashed government revenue, forcing officials to draw on reserves and issue bonds for the first time in nearly a decade. “The budget was approved amid challenging economic and financial circumstances in the region and the world,” the Finance Ministry said in a statement. “The deficit will be financed through a plan that considers the best available options, including domestic and external borrowing.” Below Estimates The 2015 deficit is about 16 percent of gross domestic product, according to Alp Eke, senior economist at National Bank of Abu Dhabi. The median estimate of 10 economists in a Bloomberg survey was a shortfall of 20 percent. Oil made up 73 percent of this year’s revenue, according to the Finance Ministry. Non-oil income rose 29 percent to 163.5 billion riyals. The government has managed to reign in “some spending in the second half of the year,” Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, said by phone. “With the further fiscal retrenchment that we expect in 2016, we think that the fiscal deficit should narrow to about 10.8% of GDP.” For 2016, the government allocated 213 billion riyals for military and security spending, the largest component of the budget as the kingdom fights a war in Yemen against Shiite rebels. “In terms of defense expenditure in particular there’s the burden of the war in Yemen,” Nasser Saidi, president of Nasser Saidi & Associates, said by phone. The outcome for 2016 depends on “the course of the war in Yemen, oil prices, how much will subsidies actually get reduced, how effective are they in reigning in public spending and rationalizing some of the spending on large projects, and finally how good are they at reigning in current spending,” he said. Swift Changes In its first months in power, King Salman’s administration brought swift change to the traditionally slow-moving kingdom, overhauling the cabinet, merging ministries and realigning the royal succession. The financial crunch imposed by cheaper oil means the focus is now shifting to economic reforms that the kingdom will carry out over the next five years. The government plans to privatize “several sectors” and “amend the programs of oil, water and electricity subsidies through re-pricing them gradually over the coming five years,” the ministry said.
  • 8. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 Iraq lures Exxon, Petrochina for southern energy projects Reuters + NewBase Iraq, Opec’s second-largest producer, has approached PetroChina and ExxonMobil about investing in a multibillion-dollar project to boost output from its smaller southern oilfields, a senior Iraqi oil official said. State-run South Oil Co (SOC) is seeking investment from either or both of the companies to build infrastructure needed to raise output at fields it operates, SOC deputy chairman Basim Abdul Kareem told Reuters. A sharp fall in crude oil prices since mid- 2014 has hurt Baghdad’s ability to fund oilfield development and foreign investments are needed, he said. The enhanced recovery project targets the Luhais, Nassiriya, Tuba, Nahr Bin Umar and Artawi oilfields, he said. They are producing about 240,000 bpd currently and SOC’s initial plan calls for raising that to about 350,000 bpd in 2016. The “Integrated South Project” consists of building oil pipelines, storage facilities and a seawater supply project to inject water from the Gulf to maintain pressure and enhance oil recovery, he said. The seawater project will also be used to overcome declining production rates at larger fields such as West Qurna, Majnoon, Zubair and Rumaila, operated by oil majors such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Eni and Lukoil. “Due to the current financial crisis caused by the falling oil prices, we established the ‘Integrated South Project’ to attract financiers and investors to help us increase our production and complete these vital energy projects,” Abdul Kareem said. “We are still discussing technical aspects of the project which will be followed by studying financial and contractual issues.” The contract model will be discussed with the companies and the oil ministry in Baghdad after the technical talks, he said. “Definitely, it will not be a service contract” where the companies would get a fixed dollar fee per barrel, he said. “We prefer a contract that could be profitable for all parties even under low oil prices,” he added, declining to say whether production-sharing contracts would be considered. Companies favour production-sharing deals where they recoup their investment with oil produced, as this model allows them to book their share in the oilfield on their balance sheets, increasing their assets.
  • 9. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 “We are seeking both companies or either one to accept the project,” said Abdul Kareem, declining to say how advanced the talks were. Petrochina has shown more interest than Exxon in the project, another SOC official said, declining to be identified. The two companies were approached because they are developing the West Qurna phase 1 oilfield that needs water injection to halt a decline in production, said the official. Oil sales generate 95% of Iraq’s revenue and a price fall to less than $40 per barrel from $115 in mid-2014 has hit hard. Iraq’s production stagnated for years due to wars and sanctions but started to rise in 2010 after Baghdad secured service contracts with companies including BP Plc, Exxon Mobil, Eni and Royal Dutch Shell. They are paid a fixed-dollar fee for production, a formula that has became difficult for Iraq with oil prices so low. Exports rose to a decades-high average of 3.37mn bpd in November with output at 3.66mn bpd, ministry data showed.
  • 10. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 India: GAIL India May Pick Up 5% Stake in TAPI Consortium Press Trust India + NewBase GAIL India Ltd is expected to pick up 5 percent stake in the consortium that is building the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline, Press Trust of India reported Sunday. The much delayed TAPI gas pipeline project was formally inaugurated on December 13. The ground breaking ceremony, which was held in Mary in the southeastern part of Turkmenistan, was attended by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani along with Turkmenistan President Gurbanguly Berdy muhamedov, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Indian Vice President Muhammad Hamid Ansari. TurkmenGaz will be the leader of the consortium and shall take 85 percent equity. Along with GAIL India, ISGS of Pakistan and Afghan Gas Enterprise (AGE) will also take 5 percent stake each, Press Trust reported. A government official told Press Trust that Kabul is now willing to take only 1.5-4 mmscmd of gas so the share of India and Pakistan will go up to 43-44.25 mmscmd each . As per the original deal, India and Pakistan were to get 38 mmscmd each while the remaining 14 mmscmd was to be supplied to Afghanistan. An inter-government Joint Security Task Force (JSTF) will be raised which will serve as nucleus of the pipeline’s security programme, the official said. The international consortium building the USD 8.7 billion Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline. The four nations building the pipeline had in August agreed to co-own the project and a joint venture company with participation of each country is to be set up to build and operate the 1,814- kilometre line. “Turkmenistan’s state-owned TurkmenGaz will be the leader of the consortium and shall take 85 per cent equity. India will be represented by GAIL which will take a 5 per cent interest”, a senior government official said. ISGS of Pakistan and Afghan Gas Enterprise (AGE) will also take 5 per cent stake each. The TAPI pipeline will have a capacity to carry 90 million standard cubic metres a day (mmscmd) gas for 30 years and is planned to become operational in 2018. India and Pakistan were originally to get 38 mmscmd each while the remaining 14 mmscmd was to be supplied to Afghanistan.
  • 11. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 But Kabul is now willing to take only 1.5-4 mmscmd so the share of India and Pakistan will go up to 43-44.25 mmscmd each, he said. TAPI will carry gas from Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh field, better known by its previous name South Yolotan Osman, that holds gas reserves of 16 trillion cubic feet. From the field, the pipeline will run to Herat and Kandahar province of Afghanistan, before entering Pakistan. In Pakistan, it will reach Multan via Quetta before ending at Fazilka (Punjab) in India. Turkmenistan on December 13 began work on the 214 km section of the pipeline in its territory. The pipeline will travel 773 km in Afghanistan and 827 km in Pakistan before touching Indian border. For the security of the pipeline, the official said an inter-government Joint Security Task Force (JSTF) will be raised which will serve as nucleus of the security programme. Exact role and responsibilities in each host country are being worked out, he said adding a team would also be established to ensure operational continuity and which is capable of rapid repair of critical facilities and equipment in case of sabotage or accident. The four nation consortium was stitched as no reputed international firm was willing to take lead in construction and operation of the pipeline. French giant Total SA had initially shown interest in leading a consortium of national oil companies of the four nations in the TAPI project. It, however, backed off after Turkmenistan refused to accept its condition of a stake in the gas field that will feed the pipeline.
  • 12. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 NewBase 29 December - 2015 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Oil prices edge down as slowing demand adds to high output Reuters + NewBase Crude oil futures came under renewed pressure early on Tuesday as fears of slowing demand added to near-record global production levels, which have already slashed prices by two-thirds since the middle of last year. Front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were trading at $36.75 per barrel at 0105 GMT, down 6 cents from Monday's close. The international benchmark Brent was at $36.59 per barrel, down 3 cents from their last close and less than a dollar away from 11-year lows reached earlier in December. Both contracts are down by two- thirds since prices started tumbling in June 2014. While output from exporters like Russia, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and U.S. shale drillers has been at or near record highs, demand has so far held up strong, preventing oil prices from falling even lower. Oil analysts JBC Energy said that refined oil "product demand growth in Europe turned negative in October (-170,000 barrels per day year-on-year)" for the first time in 10 months and that diesel and gasoline demand growth in China, one of the strongest price supporters of the past year, was also slowing. "The demand situation does not support a return to a higher price environment," derivatives exchange CME Group said. "China is still decelerating. Growth in emerging markets is slow. Europe may grow 1 percent to 2 percent in real GDP terms, the U.S. a little better, and Japan a little less. No major demand surges here," it said, adding that demand was also sagging due to improving transport efficiency. One change in oil trading has been that WTI flipped to a premium versus Brent this month after the United States lifted a decades-old ban on exporting U.S. crude oil. Oil price special coverage
  • 13. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 Analysts expect this price structure to stay in place, especially should global markets suffer from slowing demand and ongoing high supplies while the United States tightens. U.S. shale drillers have piled up huge amounts of debt and are struggling to stay in business as low prices hit their revenues and ability to pay down loans. "The ongoing low oil-price environment points furiously towards a rough 2016 for U.S. producers," oil analysis firm ClipperData said, with some estimates pointing to a 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) fall in U.S. production in 2016. However, with most analysts estimating global production exceeding demand by at least that amount and perhaps even more than 2 million bpd, even such a cut in the U.S. would unlikely be enough to fully rebalance world oil supply and demand.
  • 14. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release 01 Dec.. 2015 Iran Adding to Global Oil Glut Dims Hopes for Recovery Next Year Bloomberg - Mark Shenk Investors are losing faith in an oil-price recovery next year as Iran prepares to add more crude to a global glut. That’s good news for American drivers who have enjoyed the lowest gasoline prices in six years. Hedge funds reduced bets on rising prices to a three-month low and kept bearish wagers near a record high in the week ended Dec. 22, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. Oil fell to the lowest level in more than six years on Dec. 21 amid speculation suppliers from the Middle East to the U.S. will exacerbate a glut as they fight for market share. Iran, which expects sanctions over its nuclear program to be lifted by the first week of January, has secured customers for its planned supply expansion, an Iranian oil official said this month. U.S. pump prices have followed crude lower, giving consumers extra money to spend during the holidays. “There’s every reason to be bearish,” said Tom Finlon, Jupiter, Florida-based director of Energy Analytics Group LLC. “As we approach the end of December, there’s more attention being paid to the expected return of Iranian barrels adding to the glut in supply.” WTI fell 3.2 percent to $36.14 a barrel in the report week on the New York Mercantile Exchange and traded at $36.85 a barrel as of 12:05 p.m. in Singapore on Tuesday. The average price of regular U.S. gasoline slipped to 1.998 a gallon on Dec. 20, the first time below $2 since 2009, according to Heathrow, Florida-based AAA.
  • 15. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 Iranian Priority Iran’s priority is to boost shipments to pre-sanction levels, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said, according to the state-backed IRNA news agency. The nation sees the potential for further oil-price declines as it plans to boost supply amid a lack of OPEC cooperation, said Rokneddin Javadi, head of National Iranian Oil Co., according to the Shana news agency. The Iranian government plans to add 500,000 barrels a day of exports within a week of the removal of sanctions and 1 million within six month, said Javadi, who is also the country’s deputy oil minister. “There are fundamental elements that will put downward pressure on the market during the new year,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy. “The supply and demand outlook is negative.” Speculators’ long positions in WTI fell by 3,198 contracts to 259,181 futures and options, CFTC data show. Shorts rose 3.4 percent to 172,258, just short of the all-time high reached earlier this month. Net-long positions fell 9.2 percent to 86,923. Brent Crude Money managers cut their bullish bets on Brent crude during the period. Speculators reduced net- longs 3.4 percent to 166,034 contracts, according to data from ICE Futures Europe. In other markets, net bearish wagers on U.S. ultra low sulfur diesel decreased 5.3 percent to 39,172 contracts. Diesel futures slipped 5.2 percent in the period. Net bullish bets on Nymex gasoline slipped 9.7 percent to 21,385 contracts as futures declined 5.6 percent. WTI climbed to a three-week high on Dec. 24 after U.S. crude inventories declined and drillers idled rigs. Stockpiles should move higher in January because Gulf Coast refiners curb deliveries at the end of the year to reduce local taxes, Kilduff said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we start the year with an initial run to $40 before running out of steam,” Kilduff said. “The first half of the year will be tough. I think we should make new lows and drop below $30 when the refinery maintenance season begins.”
  • 16. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 Sinopec Plans to Double Fuling Shale Gas Capacity By 2017 Bloomberg - Winnie Zhu China Petrochemical Corp., China’s second-biggest oil and gas producer, plans to double annual shale gas production capacity at its Fuling project in southwest China in the next two years to 10 billion cubic meters. The Beijing-based company known as Sinopec Group has steadily produced 15 million cubic meters of shale gas a day at the site for more than a month, it said in an e-mailed statement on Tuesday. Current gas production could meet daily gas demand of 30 million families, it said. “The Fuling shale gas development model could be easily applied to similar projects in China, and support the country’s large-scale exploration of the fuel,” deputy general manager Jiao Fangzheng said in the statement. The combined shale gas output from Sinopec Group and PetroChina Co., the country’s biggest oil and gas producer, may reach 5.1 billion cubic meters this year, lagging China’s output target of 6.5 billion cubic meters, Bloomberg reported Dec. 9, citing people with direct knowledge of the matter. Proved shale gas reserves at Fuling more than tripled to 380.6 billion cubic meters making it the world’s second-largest shale gas field outside North America, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec said Oct. 15. The project sits in mountainous rural Chongqing and has produced 3.9 billion cubic meters of the fuel since starting production, according to the Tuesday statement. China’s total proven shale gas reserves are estimated at 500 billion cubic meters, according to the Chinese Academy of Engineering.
  • 17. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 29 December 2015 K. Al Awadi
  • 18. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18