NewBase 07 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1705 by Khaled Al Awadi_compressed (1).pdf

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NewBase Energy News 07 March 2024 No. 1705 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE's ADNOC, Saudi Aramco talks to invest in US LNG projects
Reuters - Marwa Rashad
Gulf oil giants Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company
(ADNOC) (ADNOC.UL) are in talks to invest in U.S. liquefied natural gas projects, as they step up
competition with oil majors and regional rival Qatar in the booming super-chilled gas market, sources
aware of the matter said.
The two energy giants are trying to exploit their fossil fuel resources while they can and with demand
for the chilled fuel expected to grow by 50% by 2030, they are tapping opportunities in the United
States which has become the world's biggest exporter of LNG as it sends record volumes to Europe.
Saudi Aramco is in talks to invest in phase 2 of Sempra Infrastructure's Port Arthur LNG project in
Texas, which represents a proposed expansion to the already producing first phase, the sources
said, declining to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Meanwhile, state-owned ADNOC is in talks with the U.S. LNG firm NextDecade for an offtake from
a proposed fourth processing unit at its $18 billion Rio Grande LNG export facility, they added.
Aramco and ADNOC declined to comment when contacted by Reuters. Sempra Infrastructure, a
subsidiary of Sempra (SRE.N), opens new tab, said it does not comment on commercial matters
ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/

related to projects under development, while NextDecade said it does not comment on market
speculation.
U.S. LNG capacity is set to almost double over the next four years, but several U.S. LNG projects
developers have faced financial hurdles to get their proposed export terminals off the ground as
investors become more demanding and amid increasing regulatory pressures on banks to focus on
environmental, social and governance (ESG).
"The message is: If ESG focussed banks won't finance U.S. projects, someone will," Kaushal
Ramesh, Rystad Energy's vice president for LNG research said.
Following pressure from climate activists, U.S. President Joe Biden in January paused approvals
pending and future applications to export LNG from new projects.
It is not yet clear if the talks with the Gulf oil giants are around equity stakes or sale and purchase
agreements (SPA), or both.
One of the sources said Aramco is in talks to purchase some or all volumes from one of the two
liquefaction units at Port Arthur's second phase, both capable of producing up to 13.5 million tonnes
per annum (mtpa).
GULF LNG RACE
Saudi Aramco is trying to kickstart its global LNG business. ADNOC is already a player in the LNG
market. Both compete with neighbouring Qatar, one of the world's largest exporters of the seaborne
fuel.
QatarEnergy has recently revealed expansion plans that will see it control a global LNG market
share of nearly 25% by 2030, analysts say.
"Both Aramco and ADNOC are the oil heavyweights who could have always done more in LNG...It
wouldn't be a surprise that they will happily unlock their wallet for the right project," Rystad's Ramesh
said.
On Tuesday, sources told Reuters that Aramco has been shortlisted along with Shell (SHEL.L),
opens new tab and a few other companies to purchase most of the assets of LNG trading firm
Pavilion Energy, what could kickstart its LNG business.
"This transaction would underpin the demand side of the equation to build a global LNG portfolio,
likely linked to U.S. Gulf Coast supply purchases in the near future," said Felix Booth, head of LNG
at energy intelligence firm Vortexa.

Saudi Arabia: Inmarsat Maritime partners with Aramco to trial
world-first over water 5G mesh network…. Source: Inmarsat
The 5G 'mesh' technology aims to enable high-speed connectivity in challenging conditions, with
trials planned to demonstrate range far beyond what was previously possible.
Inmarsat Maritime, a Viasat company, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)
with Aramco, a global integrated energy and chemicals company, to undertake a 5G 'mesh' network
trial that aims to provide high-bandwidth connectivity for Aramco’s offshore work in the Arabian Gulf.
The technology is designed to provide high-speed communication capabilities while meeting the
demands of the region’s climate – including extreme heat, sandstorms, wind and water evaporation
– thanks to 5G’s improved reliability in challenging weather conditions
The MoU follows successful outdoor network testing in Rutland Water, UK, in February 2024, which
demonstrated reliable and high throughput millimeter Wave (mmWave) signal propagation over water.
Further testing of the 5G mobile Integrated Access and Backhaul (mIAB) network and of Inmarsat
Maritime’s specific developments will be conducted under the extreme weather conditions of the
Arabian Gulf later this year. The testing of Inmarsat Maritime’s 5G mesh in the Arabian Gulf with
Aramco aims to showcase world-first long-range, high-throughput mIAB deployment over the sea –
far beyond the maximum 1km range previously possible.
The technology has the potential to allow Aramco to optimize its offshore operations via the 5G
mesh and enable capabilities such as intelligent remote maintenance and remote operations. This
will include monitoring and metering with IoT sensors, assisted operations for staff equipped with
augmented reality headsets, novel safety and security features and potential for cost saving and
efficient energy use.
Inmarsat Maritime’s advanced ground infrastructure offers inbuilt cybersecurity and data protection.
Ships operating further from the shore will be able to supplement ground-based 5G with satellite
coverage, thanks to Inmarsat Maritime’s bonded network solution, which is already onboard more
than 14,000 vessels worldwide.

U.S More productive wells spur U.S. crude oil production higher
source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2024
U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in December 2023, following
sustained productivity increases at new wells, according to our latest Petroleum Supply
Monthly (PSM). U.S. crude oil production has increased to record highs since 2010 and has risen
even more quickly in recent months. These record highs have come despite declining U.S. drilling
activity because the new wells are more efficient.
Since first surpassing the previous record in August 2023, U.S. crude oil production has increased
another 2%, exceeding the pre-pandemic November 2019 peak by 0.3 million b/d. The number of
new wells brought on line by drilling activity has historically been the key determinant of whether
crude oil production increases or decreases.
However, advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies have increased well
productivity, enabling U.S. producers to extract more crude oil from new wells drilled while
maintaining production from legacy wells.

Our Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) shows more production from a combination of increasing new
well production and higher sustained legacy well production. We define new well production as
crude oil extracted during the first 12 months of production, while legacy production is crude oil
extracted after the initial 12 months. The share of legacy production since 2021 has remained stable,
and production from new wells has continued to increase
The rig count is the number of active oil rigs in the United States as published by Baker Hughes.
Traditionally, the number of active oil-directed rigs is a leading indicator of future crude oil production
because more active rigs can drill more new wells. Recently, U.S. crude oil production has increased
because of technological advancements and efficiency gains despite a 69% decrease in the number
of active rigs since 2014.
The number of new wells added every year in the United States has fluctuated over the past decade.
Although the number of new wells notably peaked at 13,745 in 2014, subsequent activity dipped
before showing signs of returning in June 2016. The number of new wells fell by nearly 40% (4,829
wells) in 2020 to 7,147 because of the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then,
the number of new crude oil wells has increased in every year at a slower pace compared with pre-
pandemic rates. In 2022, the number of new crude oil wells was the same as in 2017. In the first
half of 2023, drillers increased the number of new wells by 12% (624 wells) compared with the same
period in 2022. This growth in the number of new wells indicates that growth in production is
supported increasingly by increased productivity despite fewer operating drilling rigs compared with
the past.
The United States became the global leader in crude oil production in 2018, surpassing Russia and
Saudi Arabia, because of the substantial increase in crude oil output before 2016. By October 2023,
after the economic disruptions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States accounted
for 16% of global crude oil production, the most recent month for which data are available in
our International Energy Statistics.
In our February Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast a dip in production in early 2024 because
winter weather caused some operators to shut in production. We forecast production will continue
to decline through the second and third quarters of 2024. We forecast crude oil production to climb
again in 2025, and we expect it to exceed the November 2023 peak in February 2025.

China: Crude oil processing in China hit a record high in 2023
source: China National Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg L.P.
Crude oil processing, or refinery runs, in China averaged 14.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023,
an all-time high. The record processing came as the economy and refinery capacity grew in China
following the country’s COVID-19 pandemic responses in 2022.
China has increased refinery capacity more than any other country in recent years, partially to meet
the country’s transportation fuel needs but also to produce feedstocks for its petrochemical industry.
Petrochemicals are the essential building blocks to produce plastics, resins, and fibers widely used
in consumer goods, packaging, and textiles.

In recent years, capacity additions in China have been integrated with petrochemical facilities,
increasing production of petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha and liquefied petroleum gases
(LPG), which include propane and butane.
Naphtha is a light hydrocarbon that is further processed to blend into motor gasoline in essentially
all U.S. refineries. Much of the petrochemical feedstock for U.S. petrochemical producers comes
from ethane and LPG, which can be separated and sold from natural gas processing plants.
In contrast, many petrochemical producers in Europe and Asia use mostly naphtha (rather than
ethane) and LPG as petrochemical feedstocks. Naphtha, LPG, and ethane are used to produce
industrial chemicals such as ethylene, propylene, and paraxylene, which are ultimately converted
into intermediate or end-use products.
Developing integrated refining and petrochemical complexes provides flexibility for these facilities
to shift production toward either transportation fuels or petrochemical feedstocks, depending on
market conditions.
China’s growing petrochemical sector has made the country one of the world’s largest
petrochemical producers. As a result, China’s petrochemical manufacturers need the increased
naphtha and LPG produced from China’s refineries, even as China continues to import the two
feedstocks.
According to trade press, Chinese companies plan to add more capacity, including the 400,000-b/d
Yulong refining and petrochemical complex, which was supposed to open in 2024 but is now
delayed to 2025.
The relative prices of crude oil, motor gasoline, petrochemical products, and petrochemical
feedstocks can influence naphtha and LPG pricing. Petrochemical margins in Asia have been low
or negative since 2022, based on data from Bloomberg, L.P., because petrochemical manufacturing
has expanded rapidly in China at a time when high inflation and slower GDP growth has slowed
demand.

U.S.A : The Long-Range EV Boom Has Arrived
Bloomberg
American car buyers demand more range from electric vehicles than drivers in any other country.
For years, a few models made by Tesla were the only long-range game in town, but the era of
scarcity is suddenly over.
In the US, the number of EV options that can go 300 miles or more on a single charge, which many
consider the threshold for a long-range vehicle, jumped to 30 models at the beginning of 2024, a
500% increase in three years. An additional 20 are set to go on sale later in the year, according to
a new analysis by Bloomberg Green. Long-range EVs now come in all shapes and sizes, from the
swoopy Hyundai Ioniq 6 sedan that offers 361 miles per charge to the armor-clad Tesla Cybertruck
with 340 miles.
Improvements in range and affordability helped boost sales of fully electric vehicles in the US, which
accounted for 8% of all new cars in the US last year. Growth in sales is expected to slow in 2024,
partly because of the time it takes to scale up production of all the new flagship EVs.
The meager batteries in early electric cars weren’t a match for American car culture, which was
slower to adopt them than Europe and China. It wasn’t until Tesla introduced longer-range vehicles
and nationwide faster chargers that the US market took off. The Tesla Model S sedan was the first
EV to top 300 miles, in 2016. It was quickly followed by the Model X, Model 3 and Model Y. Those
first four range champs still account for half of the US market for EVs.

The number of vehicles with more than 300 miles of range can be seen as a rough gauge of
automaker ambitions in the US. Vehicles with much smaller ranges are perfectly suitable for millions
of people with at-home charging and consistent commutes. But given lingering range anxiety and
US preference for excess, any carmaker that wants to reach mass-market sales that rival their gas-
powered equivalents can’t hope to do so without offering long-range options.
Thirteen of the 15 best-selling EVs in the US last year offered a battery option with more than 300
miles between charges. Of the two exceptions, the Chevrolet Bolt was discontinued for 2024 while
the company works on a longer-range version, leaving only the Volkswagen ID.4, which was
upgraded to 291 miles for 2024. The average range of an EV sold in the US in 2023 rose to a record
294 miles.
Eight years ago, there wasn’t a production EV in the world that could drive as far as the average EV
sold today. Now, the 300-mile threshold has become a new standard in the US, seen as roughly
equivalent to the convenience and flexibility of a gas-powered car.

These bigger batteries come with tradeoffs. They make a vehicle heavier and more expensive, and
they increase the environmental footprint of building it. In many cases, they offer little benefit, when
the typical daily commute is 30 to 40 miles.
Reasons to go long
Many new EV owners quickly realize that a car’s official battery range can greatly overstate the
distance it actually travels on a charge. Most batteries, for example, aren’t meant to be charged to
the max every day or run down to zero. Range also drops when you turn on the heater or air
conditioning, drive in the rain or against a strong wind, travel over 60 miles per hour, load the car
with passengers or luggage, or use a bike rack. In the worst conditions, the usable range of a mid-
tier 250-mile battery can easily drop to 90 miles.
Then, too, there’s the issue of charging. For people who frequently rely on public chargers — either
on long trips or because they don’t have a regular charging spot — bigger batteries come with
advantages. They require less frequent stops, and when it’s time to charge, they can add miles of
range more quickly. Some EVs can add 100 miles of driving in less than a quarter of the time it
takes others.
A quirk of EV charging is that adding 100 miles of charge to a big battery is much faster than a
smaller one. That’s because longer-range batteries are typically made with materials better suited
to fast charging. Also, once a battery is half full, the charging rate begins to slow, so smaller batteries
spend less time adding miles at their maximum charge rate.
Poll after poll of American car buyers show four interrelated concerns behind EV reluctance: price,
range, time it takes to charge and access to charging stations. Range can help compensate for
charging issues — but it comes at a cost. Battery prices declined by 14% last year to a record low,
according to BloombergNEF, but they remain the most expensive component of an EV.
Over the past decade, the average battery range in the US increased almost 13% a year, though
that rate may be slowing considerably, as steady improvements in chargers are reducing pressure
for ever-longer ranges. This year, Tesla is opening 15,000 of its fastest chargers to other auto
brands in the US, effectively doubling the high-speed public charging options for non-Tesla drivers.
For now, at least, the 300-mile sweet spot just might be enough.

NewBase March 07 -2024 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil prices edge higher after US stocks build less than expected
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices ticked higher on Thursday after U.S. crude inventories rose less than expected last week
and fuel stocks saw large draws.
Brent crude futures rose 2 cents to $82.98 a barrel by 0421 GMT, while U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude futures rose 5 cents to $79.08 a barrel.
The benchmarks edged up about 1% on Wednesday after crude inventories rose for a sixth week
in a row, building by 1.4 million barrels, about two-thirds of the 2.1 million-barrel rise analysts had
forecast in a Reuters poll.
Gasoline and distillate stocks fell more-than-expected, the EIA data also showed.
A strong U.S. dollar will maintain the status quo in the near term, as markets brace for a risk the
U.S. Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut gets delayed to the second half of this year, according
to a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists.
Oil price special
coverage

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said continued progress on inflation "is not assured", though the U.S.
central bank still expects to reduce its benchmark interest rate this year.
Markets also awaited Chinese trade data. Beijing this week said it is again aiming for GDP
growth this year of around 5%. Many analysts are sceptical, though, and the performance of imports
and exports in recent months suggests trade will not be a major driver of the economy.
In a sign of supply tightness, top oil exporter Saudi Arabia raised the prices for flagship Arab Light
crude it sells to Asia in April to $1.70 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, trade sources said.

NewBase Specual Coverage
The Energy world –March 07 -2024
CLEAN ENERGY
CO2 emissions , Major growth of clean energy limited the rise
in global emissions in 2023
IEA
Emissions grew in 2023, but clean energy is limiting the growth
Emissions increased in 2023
Total energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 1.1% in 2023. Far from falling rapidly - as is
required to meet the global climate goals set out in the Paris
Agreement - CO2 emissions reached a new record high of 37.4
Gt in 2023.1 This estimate is based on the IEA’s detailed, cutting-
edge region-by-region and fuel- by-fuel analysis of the latest
official national energy data, supplemented by data on economic
and weather conditions.
Understanding the various drivers behind this emissions growth
provides insights into the progress and prospects for the energy
transition. This report provides a timely analysis of both the latest
emissions trends and the underlying energy sector drivers in
2023. It represents a companion piece to our first ever Clean
Energy Market Monitor, released in parallel.

but clean energy is making a difference
The 1.1% increase in emissions in 2023 represented an increase of around 410 million tonnes (Mt
CO2). The percentage growth of emissions was substantially slower than global GDP growth, which
was around 3% in 2023. Last year therefore continued the recent trend of CO2 growing more slowly
than global economic activity.
Over the ten years ending with 2023, global CO2 emissions have grown by slightly more than 0.5%
per year. This is not just due to the Covid- 19 pandemic: although emissions fell precipitously in
2020, by the following year they had already rebounded to the pre-pandemic level.
It was also not caused by slow global GDP growth, which averaged a robust 3% per year across
the course of the previous decade, in line with the annual average over the last 50 years.
The rate of emissions growth seen over the last decade is slower than that seen during the 1970s
and 1980s, which saw major disruptions with the two energy shocks of 1973-4 and 1979-80, and a
macroeconomic shock of global significance with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989-90.
When the last ten years are put in a broader historical context, a comparably slow rate of CO2
emissions growth only occurred in the extremely disruptive decades of World War I and the Great
Depression. Global CO2 emissions are therefore undergoing a structural slowdown even as global
prosperity grows.
Clean energy is at the heart of this slowdown in emissions. Global capacity additions of wind and
solar PV reached a record almost 540 GW in 2023, up 75% on the level of 2022. Global sales of

electric cars climbed to around 14 million, an increase of 35% on the level of 2022. Clean energy is
having a significant impact on the trajectory of global CO2 emissions.
On the back of Covid-19 stimulus packages, there has been a significant acceleration in clean
energy deployment since 2019. Between 2019 and 2023, total energy-related emissions increased
around 900 Mt. Without the growing deployment of five key clean energy technologies since 2019 -
solar PV, wind power, nuclear power, heat pumps, and electric cars - the emissions growth would
have been three times larger.
Weather and continued Covid-19 reopeningeffects played an important role in the emissions
increase
The following sections outline a series of factors - both positive and negative - thatshaped the change
in CO2 emissions between 2022 and 2023. In summary, the cumulative net impact of these effects
accounts for nearly two-thirds of the overallincrease in emissions, or around 255 Mt CO2 of the 410
Mt of observed increase.
Temperature
Temperatures have significant impacts on energy sector emissions, by affecting energy demand for
heating and cooling. 2023 was the hottest year on record. However, 2022 was also marked by
extremely high temperatures in major regions with high ownership rates of air conditioning. 2023
was hot globally, but 2022 was hotter or just as hot in the regions accounting for a large share of
global energy demand for air conditioning. The increase in emissions from more cooling demand
globally in 2023 was therefore relatively small, at around 50 Mt CO2.

In contrast, 2023 saw much milder winter conditions compared to 2022 in countries with large
energy demand for heating, notably the United States and the People’s Republic of China
(hereinafter China).
This significantly reduced energy demand for heating, saving emissions equivalent to 170 Mt CO2.
Globally, considering the net effects of moderately higher energy demand for cooling and much
lower energy demand for heating, temperatures reduced emissions byaround 120 Mt CO2 in 2023.
Precipitation
Global hydropower capacity increased by around 20 GW in 2023. Despite this increase, the global
generation of hydropower saw a record decline in 2023. This was primarily driven by severe and

prolonged droughts that impacted major hydropower regions, exacerbated by the influence of El
Niño.
Had the availability of the hydropower plant fleet in 2023 remained consistent with 2022 levels, an
additional 200 TWh of electricity would have been generated globally. This would have avoided the
emission of around 170 million Mt CO2 from fossil fuel-based power plants. It would also have
meant that electricity sector emissions would have fallen globally in 2023, instead of rising
moderately.
China experienced a challenging period of 12 consecutive months of below- average rainfall from
the middle of 2022 to the middle of 2023; the deficit was particularly severe during the second half
of 2022.
Even as rainfall gradually recovered over the course of 2023, additional water inflow was primarily
utilised to refill hydro reservoirs rather than for electricity production. This meant that although the
worst of the precipitation deficit was seen in the second half of 2022, the impact on hydropower
output was only seen in 2023.
In 2023, China’s hydropower generation fell around 4.9%, the worst decline in the last twenty years.
China’s hydropower generation would have been 125 TWh higher in 2023 if its hydropower fleet
availability had been the same as in 2022. China's hydropower shortfall accounted for nearly two-
thirds of the global deficit in hydropower generation in 2023.
Southeast Asia and India grappled with warm and dry conditions throughout 2023, a probable
consequence of the simultaneous occurrence of El Niño and the positive phase of the Indian Ocean
Dipole - the Indian Ocean's counterpart to El Niño – in the second part of the year. India experienced
a weakened monsoon season, with August the driest in at least 45 years.

North America also faced significant drought conditions. The influence of El Niño brought about
warmer and drier conditions in Canada and the North-West of the United States, where half of the
national hydropower capacity is situated.
Additionally, unusually warm temperatures in spring accelerated snowmelt in these regions,
resulting in a considerable depletion of hydropower resources. As a result, much of Canada
grappled with drought conditions, with British Columbia, the second-largest hydropower province in
the country, particularly hard-hit by severe drought. In Mexico, severe and prolonged droughts led
to a hydro generation shortfall of almost 50% compared to 2022.
In contrast to other regions, 2023 proved to be a robust year for hydropower electricity generation
in Europe. The hydropower sector recovered from the drought experienced in 2022, with the water
level of hydropower reservoirs back to historical averages in key regions. This recovery enabled
European hydropower plants to produce around 45 TWh more electricity compared to 2022.
Reopening in China and continued reopening in globalaviation
The effects of Covid-19 on the energy sector are still unwinding, and this processof cyclical recovery
back to pre-pandemic levels of transport activity played an important role in driving up emissions in
2023. This is evident in the global aviationsector and in China’s road passenger transport sector.
Total global aviation traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), soared by more
than 35% in 2023 compared to 2022. Despite this increase, globalaviation traffic was still around 6%
lower than the pre-pandemic level, due to the persistence of lower levels of international travel. This
continued cyclical recoveryof global aviation demand resulted in around 140 Mt of extra emissions
in 2023.
China relaxed its stringent lockdowns at the beginning of 2023, which led to a huge rebound in
passenger transport demand. Highway passenger kilometres surged by around 50% compared to
2022, although they remained substantially below the 2019 level.
Total gasoline consumption rose by around 10% in China in 2023 compared to 2022. In contrast to
passenger transport, road freight transport activity levels were never as affected by the Covid-19
lockdowns compared to passenger transport. Considering therefore the cyclical recovery of road
passenger transport, the reopening in China accounted for around 50 Mt of additional emissions.
Weaker industrial output in advanced economies
In 2022, as the world reeled from the effects of the energy shock, the decrease in energy-intensive
industrial production contributed significantly to avoiding emissions. In 2023, this effect was more
muted.
The output of key energy- intensive goods declined modestly in advanced economies in the
aggregate, although there were differences depending on the industrial commodity and regions. We
estimate that this pushed down emissions by around 25 Mt.
Emissions in advanced economies fell to their level of 50 years ago
After falling by around 4.5% in 2023, emissions in advanced economies were lower than they were
fifty years ago in 1973. Although emissions in this group of countries have plumbed similar lows in
2020, 1974-75 and 1982-83, there are two important differences.
Firstly, in contrast with the previous temporary declines in 1974-75 and 1982-83, advanced
economy emissions have been in a structural decline since 2007.

Secondly, advanced economy GDP expanded by around 1.7% in 2023, compared to stagnation or
outright recession in these other periods. The decline in 2023 therefore represents the largest
percentage drop in advanced economy emissions outside of a recessionary period.
… with coal demand back to around its 1900 level…
Nearly two-thirds of the decline in
emissions from advanced
economies in 2023 occurred in the
electricity sector.
For the first time in history,
electricity generation from
renewables and nuclear reached
50% of total generation in
advanced economies, with
renewables alone accounting for
an unprecedented 34% share.
Conversely, coal’s share
plummeted to an historic low of
17%.
This transformation in the
electricity sector has pushed
advanced economy coal demand
back to a level that had not been seen – outside of briefly in the Great Depression – since around
1900. Since its peak in 2007, coal demand has nearly halved.
This reduction was driven by the remarkable increase in the share of renewables, which more than
doubled from 16% to 34% of electricity generation during this period. Additionally, there has been
significant coal-to-gas switching, with the share of natural gas in electricity generation rising from
22% to 31%.

on the back of a clean energy boom, but also mildweather and somewhat weaker industrial
production
European Union
Total CO2 emissions from energy combustion in the European Union declined by almost 9% in 2023
(-220 Mt). While this reduction is of similar magnitude to the decline observed in 2020 during the
Covid-19 pandemic, the context in 2023 differs significantly, with the European Union experiencing
– admittedly weak – economic growth of around 0.7%. Clean energy growth accounted for half of
the decline in emissions in 2023, and was the largest driver.
The primary driver behind this decline was the deployment of renewables in the electricity sector.
For the first time, wind power surpassed both natural gas and coal in electricity generation, marking
an historic milestone for the energy transition in the region. Electricity production from coal dropped
by 27% in 2023, while natural gas-based electricity generation declined by 15%. The recovery of
hydroelectric power from the droughts of 2022 and a partial recovery in nuclear power also played
a role in reducing the reliance on fossil fuels in the power sector.
Nuclear power saw an historic fall in 2022 in the European Union, due to forced maintenance
outages. Several of the reactors taken offline in 2022 were gradually reconnected to the grid in the
first part of 2023, and Covid-19 related maintenance delays began to subside. However, the nuclear
power fleet availability did not recover back to its 2021 level. If the EU’s nuclear fleet availability had
achieved the 2021 level, an additional 70 TWh would have been generated, despite capacity
retirements in some countries. This would have resulted in a further reduction of 40 Mt CO2.
High energy prices, interest rates, weak domestic demand and strong international competition
pushed down industrial production in the
European Union. Reductions in the industry
sector account for around 30 percent of the
total annual decrease in emissions. However,
the percentage fall in industry CO2 was
substantially larger than the fall in value
added, and larger than the decline in the
output of heavy industry goods. This indicates
that beyond output declines, energy
efficiency and fuel-switching played a role in
reducing emissions for the industry sector in
the European Union.
A mild winter in 2023 lowered energy demand in the residential and services sectors. However, the
2022 winter was already mild. Temperature variations therefore played a marginal role in emissions
reduction in the region.
Some of the tensions on European energy markets receded in 2023, resulting in a decrease in
wholesale energy prices from the record highs observed in 2022. However, retail energy prices
continued to rise in 2023 following the lifting of some of the financial support mechanisms
implemented in 2022; this effect likely contributed to some of the decline in residential energy
demand.
United States
Total CO2 emissions from energy combustion in the United States declined by 4.1% (-190 Mt), while
the economy grew by 2.5%. Two-thirds of the emissions reduction came from the electricity sector.

The United States experienced a substantial shortfall in hydropower generation in 2023, which fell
around 6% or 15 TWh. The United States also experienced a shortfall in wind power generation. In
2022, favourable wind conditions prevailed in key regions for wind generation across the United
States. However, in 2023, partly due to El Niño, average daily wind speeds in these regions
plummeted to their lowest levels of the decade. If wind conditions had been the same as 2022, 16
Mt CO2 would have been avoided in the United States in 2023.
Despite the hydro and wind shortfalls that impacted the United States, renewables in the electricity
sector reduced emissions by around 20 Mt. If poor wind conditions and poor hydro conditions had
not occurred, the deployment of renewables would have reduced emissions by around 40 Mt.
Coal-to-gas switching was the largest driver behind emissions reduction in the US electricity sector.
This shift was driven by advantageous gas prices compared to coal since 2022, combined with the
ongoing retirement of coal-fired power plants. While electricity generated from coal decreased by
almost 20% in 2023, electricity generated from natural gas grew by 6%.
The mild winter experienced in the United States in 2023 was also a driver behind emissions
reduction in the country. Milder temperatures compared to 2022 led to a notable decrease in
electricity and fossil fuel demand in the residential and services sectors, contributing to 35% of the
total emissions reductions from the energy sector in the United States.
Coal demand in emerging market and developing economies was the biggest driver in global
emissions growth
Coal has contributed by far the most to the increase of global CO2 emissions in the post-pandemic
era. Global emissions from energy combustion have increased by around 850 Mt since 2019; those
from coal have grown by 900 Mt, gas emissions have increased moderately, and oil emissions are
still slightly below their 2019 level.

Coal accounted for around 70% of the increase in global emissions from energy combustion in 2023
(+270 Mt). China and India saw substantial increases in emissions from coal combustion, only
partially offset by declines in advanced economies. Oil emissions were pushed up by the reopening
in China and in global aviation, increasing by around 95 Mt globally. Natural gas emissions
increased only marginally at the global level.
At the sector level, transport experienced the most pronounced growth in emissions, surging by
nearly 240 Mt globally. The power sector contributed the second largest increase and shows the
highest level of regional disparity, as emissions in advanced economies collapsed while those in
emerging market and developing economies soared.
Industrial emissions saw a slight uptick, as the combination of moderately weaker industrial output,
efficiency gains, and fuel switching in advanced economies was insufficient to counterbalance the

emissions increase from industrial development in emerging market and developing economies.
Buildings was the only sector to see emissions fall at the global level, largely attributable to milder
temperatures experienced in 2023.
The changing landscape of global emissions
The landscape of emissions continues to change. China’s total CO2 emissions exceeded those of
the advanced economies combined in 2020, and in 2023 were 15% higher. India surpassed the
European Union to become the third largest source of global emissions in 2023. Countries in
developing Asia now account for around half of global emissions, up from around two-fifths in 2015
and around one‑quarter in 2000. China alone accounts for 35% of global CO2 emissions.
Advanced economies continue to have relatively high per capita emissions, at about 70% higher
than the global average in 2023. India’s per capita emissions remain less than half of the global
average, at around 2 tonnes.
Per capita emissions in the European Union have fallen strongly and are now only around 15%
higher than the global average and around 40% below those of China. China’s per capita emissions
exceeded those of the advanced economies as a group in 2020 and are now 15% higher; 2023
represented the first time that they surpassed those of Japan, although they remain one-third lower
than those of the United States.

NewBase Energy News 07- March - Issue No. 1704 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscriptions, please email us.
About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the
GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of
the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant,
advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks,
waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection
and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas
compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes.
Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation &
maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities.
Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has
participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and
panelist.
Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over
1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable
energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the
world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program
broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see
contact details above.

NewBase 07 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1705 by Khaled Al Awadi_compressed (1).pdf

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