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NewBase Energy News 15 April 2024 No. 1716 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE: Masdar’s Green Hydrogen Summit Tomorrow in Abu Dhabi
(WAM)
Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company PJSC – Masdar has announced a stellar international lineup
for its Green Hydrogen Summit including former UK Prime Minister Rt Hon Boris Johnson,
ministerial speakers from the UAE, Azerbaijan, Japan and the Netherlands, industry leaders and
global adventurer Dr. Bertrand Piccard.
Masdar’s second Green Hydrogen Summit, taking place on 16th April at the World Future Energy
Summit (WFES) in Abu Dhabi, will be held under the theme “Building the Hydrogen Economy: From
Dialogue to Reality". It will convene hydrogen players worldwide for in-depth discussions to
accelerate the green hydrogen economy in support of the energy transition.
Keynote speaker Boris Johnson brings significant international experience of advancing clean
energy initiatives. During his leadership as UK Prime Minister, Johnson laid out plans to develop a
thriving low-carbon hydrogen sector as a key part of the country’s transition to net zero. Dr. Bertrand
Piccard, Chairman of Climate Impulse, will also be speaking at the Summit.
ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/
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During his session he will outline progress on his aim for the first hydrogen-powered flight to
circumnavigate the planet. Dr. Piccard’s record-breaking adventures include the first non-stop
balloon flight around the world, as well as Solar Impulse, the first flight around the world in a solar-
powered aircraft.
Hosted by the UAE’s clean energy champion Masdar, the Green Hydrogen Summit will feature a
high-level ministerial panel focusing on national strategies and policies to accelerate green
hydrogen economies. Ministers taking part in the panel include:
Parviz Shahbazov, Minister of Energy, Azerbaijan;
Yoshida Nobuhiro, Parliamentary Vice-Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan; and
Frederik Wisselink, Energy Special Envoy, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, Netherlands.
Abu Dhabi’s Low Carbon Hydrogen Policy, and its impact on crucial industries, will be the subject
of another panel. Speakers in this session will include Ahmed Mohammed Al Rumaithi,
Undersecretary, Abu Dhabi Department of Energy and Mohammad Abdelqader El-Ramahi, Chief
Green Hydrogen Officer, Masdar, alongside other high-level Abu Dhabi stakeholders.
The Green Hydrogen Summit will bring
together the public and private sector,
from policymakers and industry leaders to
forward-thinking investors and pioneering
entrepreneurs. A conversation on
‘Financing the Transition’ will focus on
factors needed to make green hydrogen
projects bankable, and will feature Lina
Osman, Managing Director & Head -
Sustainable Finance, Standard Chartered
Bank and Dr. Michael Whiteley, Global
Head Clean Hydrogen, HSBC, amongst
other global finance leaders.
There will also be a pan-regional focus
looking at the development of green
hydrogen economies in Asia, the US and
Europe. Speakers include Daria
Nochevnik, Director for Policy and
Partnerships, Hydrogen Council; Joaquin Rodriguez Jadraque, Director of Hydrogen and Clean
Energies, Cepsa; and Alicia Eastman, Host of Everything About Hydrogen and Board Member,
InterContinental Energy.
Other panels will spotlight hard-to-abate industries including aviation, shipping and heavy industry,
with a key conversation on decarbonising the steel sector featuring industry leaders such as Micheal
Rion, Chief Commercial Officer, Emirates Steel Arkan.
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Alec JV wins design-build contract for Abu Dhabi W-t-E plant
TradeArabia News Service
UAE-based Alec Engineering and Contracting has announced that its integrated joint venture with
Lebanese builder Butec has secured the design-and-build contract for the first waste-to-energy
(WtE) plant coming up in Abu Dhabi.
A part of the Investment Corporate of Dubai (ICD), Alec is a leading construction Group operating
in the GCC and Africa, while Butec, which is partially owned by the International Finance
Corporation (a member of the World Bank Group), has a strong presence in 20 countries in Middle
East and Africa.
The Alec-Butec JV will be teaming up
with the Swiss-based Hitachi Zosen
Innova (HZI), a company renowned for
its expertise in waste-to-energy
technology, to collaborate on the
construction of this project.
Alec said the scope of work for the JV
includes overseeing the engineering,
procurement and construction of all
non-process-related activities,
encompassing tasks such as civil
engineering, concrete and structural
steel work, installation of mechanical,
electrical, and plumbing (MEP)
systems, as well as building services. Additionally, the duo will manage external works and site
infrastructure development, it stated. According to Alec, the ultra-large waste incineration facility,
situated near the Al Dhafra landfill, will process 900,000 tonnes of non-recyclable waste annually
over the next 30 years.
The aim of the project is to prevent the release of nearly 1.1 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent
emissions per annum. Furthermore, the plant will add 80MW of power generation capacity from a
non-fossil fuel source, it stated.
On the contract win, Sean McQue, the Managing Director (Construction) at Alec, said: "We are
pleased to have been selected for this crucial project, highlighting our commitment to sustainable
progress within the region."
"This W-t-E facility marks a significant milestone in Abu Dhabi's endeavours to tackle waste
management issues and diminish greenhouse gas emissions. Alec's proficiency, combined with
Butec's established excellence in design-build ventures, guarantees the successful execution of this
landmark initiative," noted MCQue.
Butec’s Country General Manager Hani Houalla said: "Our design-build expertise coupled with
Alec’s distinguished construction capability positions us as a strong team ready to deliver impactful
infrastructure projects like Abu Dhabi’s Waste-to-Energy facility."
"We are proud to contribute to the UAE’s decarbonisation agenda and to this significant
development," he added.-
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South Africa’s blackouts are driving a solar boom
Bloomberg - Tim McDonnell
Installations of solar panels are surging in South Africa as a growing number of households and
businesses tire of recurrent power cuts. According to new data from the state-owned utility Eskom,
the country added more than one gigawatt of solar in just the last two months, a 31% increase and
more than it added in the preceding six months.
“What you’re seeing in these numbers is households and the private sector taking matters in their
own hands,” said Wikus Kruger, director of the Power Futures Lab at the University of Cape Town.
“It’s being driven not by government policy per se, but by desperation.”
Tim’s view
South Africa’s solar boom shows how the falling costs of renewables have made them more viable
as solutions to dysfunctional electric grids — for those who can afford them.
Multi-hour blackouts are still a daily reality for most South Africans, as Eskom’s aging power
network, which is heavily dependent on coal, drowns in debt and mismanagement, and can’t keep
pace with demand. There were more hours of “load shedding” in the first six months of 2023 than
in all of 2022, according to research firm Rystad Energy. The traditional alternative for households,
diesel-fuel generators, are extremely expensive, not to mention noisy and polluting. The country’s
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solar market, on the other hand, has been boosted by record low prices offered by Chinese
exporters, new tax credits, and regulatory reforms that made it easier for developers of large solar
farms to sell power into the grid. Imports of home batteries are also soaring.
But the solar boom is also a story of inequality. Solar is still unaffordable for a majority of South
African households, which means uptake is likely to level off soon, Kruger said. “What we’re seeing
now is the low-hanging fruit,” he said. “But I’m concerned about how sustainable this is.”
At the same time, the mass abandonment of Eskom by higher-income households could subvert
the utility’s traditional business model in a way that effectively causes low-income households to
subsidize higher-income ones. Electricity bills include variable charges for power consumed, and
fixed charges that pay for the use of grid infrastructure. A rich household that installs rooftop solar
isn’t “off the grid” (they still need grid power at night, for example). But because solar-equipped
households pay less overall, low-income households are stuck paying for a higher proportion of the
fixed infrastructure costs.
The upshot, Kruger said, is that the government needs to do more to make solar accessible to all
households — potentially via higher taxes on fossil energy sales — in addition to the longstanding
need to resolve Eskom’s litany of problems.
For now, the solar boom is actually helping Eskom, which needs to generate that much less power
as a result: “They need more generation on the grid, and this way they don’t have to pay for it,”
Kruger said. But longer-term, the loss of revenue will only exacerbate the utility’s financial woes,
leading to more blackouts and more defections — what experts call a utility “death spiral.”
In the big picture of South Africa’s climate targets, all this new solar is still just a drop in the bucket.
By 2030, the country is aiming to get 41% of its power from renewables, up from 11% today. But
because total consumption is rising quickly, and because Eskom is still constructing massive new
coal-fired power plants, the share from renewables will likely fall short of the 2030 target, according
to Rystad. “The coal and gas South Africa is building will nullify a lot of the renewable energy
growth,” Rystad analyst Nivedh Thaikoottathil said.
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China accounted for two-thirds of new global coal plant capacity
CNBC - Dylan Butts@IN/DYLAN-B-7A451A107
The world added more coal power capacity last year than any year since 2016, with China driving
most growth and future planned capacity, according to new research.
A report by Global Energy Monitor released Thursday found that net annual coal capacity grew by
48.4 GW, representing a 2% year-over-year increase. China alone accounted for about two-thirds
of new coal plant capacity.
Other countries that brought new coal plants online included Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Japan,
Bangladesh, Pakistan, South Korea, Greece and Zimbabwe.
Meanwhile, other countries such as the U.S. and U.K., slowed their rate of plant closures, with only
about 22.1 GW retired last year — the smallest amount since 2011.
The authors of the GEM report recommended countries commit to shutting down coal plants at a
faster pace, and for nations like China to adopt stricter controls on the development and usage of
new plants.
“Otherwise we can forget about meeting our goals in the Paris agreement and reaping the benefits
that a swift transition to clean energy will bring,” said Flora Champenois, a Global Energy Monitor
analyst.
The Paris Climate agreement, signed by most global governments in 2015, set long-term goals for
substantially reducing greenhouse gas emissions, caused by fossil fuels like coal. Coal power
capacity, however, continues to steadily grow.
China has separately set a goal of reaching net-zero by 2060. President Xi Jinping said in 2021 that
China would “strictly control coal consumption” up to 2025 and “phase down coal consumption”
thereafter.
A report by Global Energy Monitor found that net coal capacity grew by 48.4 GW in
2023, with China accounting for about two-thirds of new coal plant capacity.
China started construction on 70.2 GW of new coal-power capacity last year, almost
20 times the rest of the world’s 3.7 GW.
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Yet, according to data from GEM, China started construction on 70.2 GW of new coal-power
capacity last year, nearly 20 times as much as the rest of the world’s 3.7 GW. The country also only
retired about 3.7 GW of its coal capacity in 2023.
Despite this, GEM said that with “immediate and determined action,” China can still meet its climate
targets, including a goal set by the National Energy Administration in 2022 to retire 30 GW of coal
power by 2025.
While low retirement rates contributed to coal’s blockbuster 2023, they are expected to accelerate
in the U.S. and Europe, according to the report. That could offset some of the new capacity in China.
“Coal’s fortunes this year are an anomaly, as all signs point to reversing course from this accelerated
expansion,” said Champenois.
Green energy addition, not transition?
While China has been a major coal user, accounting for more than half of consumption since 2011,
it also helped expand global renewable energy capacity.
According to a report from the IEA, global
renewable capacity additions increased by
almost 50% to nearly 510 GW in 2023, the
fastest growth rate in two decades.
“While the increases in renewable capacity
in Europe, the United States and Brazil hit
all-time highs, China’s acceleration was
extraordinary,” the report said.
China commissioned as much solar
capacity as the entire world did in 2022,
while wind additions also soared 66%
year-on-year, the IEA said.
However, experts have argued that
China’s rapid economic growth, combined
with the unreliable and intermittent nature
of renewable energy sources has kept coal as a critical fallback option for the manufacturing focused
economy. China also ranks among the top five countries in terms of global coal reserves, but not
other, less pollutant options like oil and natural gas, according to Rob Thummel, managing director
at energy value chain investment company Tortoise.
“In China, coal is the largest domestic energy resource, so China continues to tap it in order to
maintain energy security,” Thummel added. The IEA estimates that all global coal generation needs
to cease by 2040 to limit temperature rises within the key threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
According to GEM, meeting this 2040 phase-out goal would require an average of 126 GW in coal
plant capacity to be shutdown annually for the next 17 years — equivalent to about two coal plants
per week.
The required cuts are even deeper when accounting for the 578 GW of coal capacity under
construction and in pre-construction, it added. As per GEM’s data, global coal capacity retirements
still have not ever outpaced additions.
The EU’s climate change monitoring service said on Tuesday that the world experienced its
warmest March on record, marking the tenth month in a row of new temperature records.
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United States exported a record volume of natural gas in 2023
source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Monthly
The United States exported 10% more natural gas in 2023 than in 2022, a record of 20.9 billion
cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), according to our Natural Gas Monthly. U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG)
exports accounted for more than half of all U.S. natural gas exports, and natural gas exports by
pipeline to Canada and Mexico accounted for the remainder.
LNG exports: LNG exports continued to drive the growth in total U.S. natural gas exports last year,
increasing 12% (1.3 Bcf/d) from 2022. U.S. LNG exports averaged a record 13.6 Bcf/d in December
2023. The United States began exporting LNG from the Lower 48 states in 2016 when Sabine Pass
LNG—the first LNG export terminal in the Lower 48 states—began operations. The United States
supplied nearly half of Europe’s LNG imports last year.
Exports by pipeline: U.S. natural gas exports by pipeline also increased last year. Exports to Canada
increased 7% to 2.8 Bcf/d, and exports to Mexico increased 8% to 6.1 Bcf/d. In 2023, natural gas
exports from the Northeast rose by more than 15% (0.2 Bcf/d), accounting for most of the increase
in total natural gas exports to Canada. Most pipeline exports from the United States to Canada exit
through New York in the Northeast and Michigan in the Midwest.
Pipeline exports to Mexico from Texas increased 9% to 5.6 Bcf/d in 2023, with most of the growth
coming from exports from West Texas, which increased by 20% (1.6 Bcf/d) compared with
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2022. Natural gas pipeline exports from West Texas to Mexico have grown steadily since 2017 as
more connecting pipelines in Central and Southwest Mexico have entered service.
Since 2017, the United States has exported more natural gas than it has imported. Prior to 2017,
the last time U.S. natural gas exports exceeded natural gas imports was in 1956. Even as a net
natural gas exporter in 2023, the United States imported 8.0 Bcf/d of natural gas, primarily by
pipeline from Canada.
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Monthly
Imports by pipeline: U.S. natural gas imports by pipeline, which come primarily from Canada,
decreased by 3% last year compared with 2022 to 8.0 Bcf/d. Natural gas imports from Canada,
which exceed U.S. natural gas exports to Canada, help support seasonal fluctuations in natural gas
consumption in the United States and generally peak in January or February.
Imports from Canada in January and February 2023 fell by 6% from the same period in 2022, in
part because of milder winter weather and less natural gas consumption in the U.S. residential and
commercial sectors. Wildfires in western Canada in April and May 2023 also disrupted deliveries
from Canada, and imports from Canada in those months averaged 9% less than in the same period
in 2022.
LNG imports: U.S. LNG imports are much smaller than natural gas imports by pipeline, and the
United States imported less than 0.1 Bcf/d of LNG during the last two years. Almost all LNG imports
are delivered to the New England market, where natural gas imports have been an important source
of supply during periods of high demand, particularly in the winter. Warmer-than-average
temperatures in the Northeast at the beginning and end of 2023 reduced natural gas demand,
resulting in lower LNG imports compared with 2022.
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NewBase April 15 -2024 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil slips as risk premium eases after Iran attack
Reuters + NewBae
Oil prices drifted lower on Monday, with the market downplaying the risk of broader regional
conflagration after Iran's weekend attack on Israel.
Brent futures for June delivery fell 81 cents, or about 0.9%, to $89.64 a barrel by 1335 GMT while
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May delivery were down 69 cents, or about 0.8%, at
$84.97.
Oil benchmarks had risen on Friday in anticipation of Iran's retaliatory attack, with prices touching
their highest since October.
Iran's attack involved more than 300 missiles and drones, and was the first on Israel by another
country in more than three decades, raising fears of a broader regional conflict affecting oil traffic
through the Middle East.
Iran saying it considers its retaliation to be over has lowered the geopolitical temperature, said Kpler
analyst Viktor Katona, while John Evans at oil broker PVM said the Iranian drone and missile attack
was "about as telegraphed a world event that people can remember".
Oil price special
coverage
 Iran says it considers retaliation against Israel to be over
 Benchmarks had risen in anticipation of Iran's attack
 Uncertainty remains over Israeli response
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"They might as well have had big disco lights on them and towed banners with ‘come on ladies and
gentlemen, please shoot me down’."
The attack, which Iran called retaliation for an air strike on its Damascus consulate, caused only
modest damage, with missiles shot down by Israel's Iron Dome defence system.
"An attack was largely priced in over the days leading up to it. Also the limited damage and the fact
that there was no loss of life means that maybe Israel's response will be more measured," said
Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING.
Oil demand to grow by 2.25m bpd, says Opec
NewBase + Arabian Business
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) said on Thursday that world oil
demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in
2025, Reuters reported.
In its monthly report, Opec predicted robust fuel use in the summer months and stuck to its forecast
for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024, highlighting an unusually large gap between
predictions of oil demand strength.
Opec has indicated that it is more optimistic on the challenge of mitigating non-Opec supply growth
in the coming months, with downward revisions to expected production growth outside the bloc in
2024 and 2025, reported S&P Global ratings.
The recent uptick in prices - supported by the overlapping cuts by the wider Opec+ alliance and
conflict in the Middle East and Europe - has led some analysts to forecast that the group may move
to wind down some of its cuts in the second half of the year.
Opec said in its closely watched monthly oil market report that it will remain vigilant and is prepared
to act alongside its allies if necessary. "The robust oil demand outlook for the summer months
warrants careful market monitoring, amid ongoing uncertainties, to ensure a sound and sustainable
market balance," Opec said.
It sees non-OECD regions, mainly China, the Middle East and other countries in Asia driving
demand. The group next plans to discuss policy on June 1, but its agreements include the option
to convene earlier, if market conditions warrant.
Opec has forecast that non-Opec supply will grow by 1 million b/d in 2024 - revised down by 100,000
b/d from its previous report released in early March. It also revised down its estimate of non-Opec
supply growth in 2025 by 100,000 b/d to 1.3 million b/d, the report said.
Opec sees the bulk of this growth coming from the US, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and
Norway. The bloc did not change its forecasts for global demand growth, or the call on its own
crude in 2024 and 2025, according to S&P Global ratings.
Opec expects global oil demand to grow by 2.2 million b/d in 2024, with slight upward revisions to
OECD Europe demand estimates offset by downward revisions to Africa and the Middle East.
It forecasts global demand growth of 1.8 million b/d in 2025. Opec's demand forecasts for its own
crude were also unchanged at 28.5 million b/d in 2024, and 29 million b/d in 2025.
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The 2024 forecast is 1.9 million b/d above current production, which would give Opec significant
influence over oil prices this year if it came to pass. Opec said that its March crude output was up
3,000 b/d month on month at 26.6 million b/d, according to secondary sources, including S&P Global
analysts.
On March 3, Opec+ countries with voluntary production cuts extended them until the end of the
second quarter. Most countries' quotas will remain the same, but Russia will transition to a reduction
rather than a supply cut, bringing its crude production levels in line with Saudi Arabia's in June,
stated S&P Global ratings.
Opec estimated OECD commercial oil stocks at 2.733 billion barrels as of February, down 25.7
million barrels month on month. That included an increase in crude stocks of 19.6 million barrels,
and a fall of 45.3 million barrels in products stocks, it added.
 Hawk Energy Sees Oil at $85-$100 This Year With Strong Demand Growth
 That’s a ‘ foreseeable & sensible range,’ Hawk Energy CEO M. Al Shihabi says
 Demand set to grow by 2.0 million barrels a day in 2024: Al Awadhi says
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NewBase Specual Coverage
The Energy world –April 15 -2024
CLEAN ENERGY
Oil demand growing at a slower pace as post-Covid rebound
runs its course
Toril Bosoni, Head of Oil Industry and Markets Division
Ciarán Healy, Oil Market AnalystCommentary — 12 April 2024
Global oil demand growth returns to historical trend
Global oil demand growth is currently in the midst of a slowdown and is expected to ease to 1.2
million barrels a day (mb/d) this year and 1.1 mb/d in 2025 – bringing a peak in consumption into
view this decade. This is primarily the result of a normalisation of growth following the disruptions
of 2020-2023, when oil markets were shaken by the Covid-19 pandemic and then the global energy
crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Despite the deceleration that is forecast, this level of oil demand growth remains largely in line with
the pre-Covid trend, even amid muted expectations for global economic growth this year and
increased deployment of clean energy technologies.
In both 2022 and 2023, global oil consumption rose by more than 2 mb/d as economies continued
their recoveries from the Covid-19 shock and saw spikes in personal mobility, along with exceptional
releases of pent-up demand for travel and tourism.
While there are reasonable grounds for uncertainty about how complete the global recovery is, both
oil demand data and mobility indicators suggest that its pace has slowed sharply and that the period
of demand growth above the historical average is coming to an end.
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China’s post-Covid rebound is running out of steam
Without a steep fall in oil prices, a sudden resurgence in the post-pandemic recovery or an
acceleration in economic activity, it is unlikely that global oil demand growth will approach the levels
seen in 2022 and 2023. Indeed, the pace of gains slowed substantially in the second half of 2023,
and the latest data shows that the trend continued at the beginning of 2024.
Oil use increased by an estimated 1.6 mb/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, down from 1.9
mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2023 and more than 3 mb/d during the middle of last year. Given that
China was the last major economy to lift public health restrictions related to the pandemic and saw
an abrupt economic recovery in mid-2023, this easing of year-on-year demand growth is likely to
continue during 2024.
Indeed, because the timing of Chinese lockdowns was quite different from the rest of the world,
global oil demand growth in 2023 was extremely dependent on the country. With the explosive
phase of the pandemic rebound largely complete elsewhere, China contributed to more than three-
quarters of the global increase in demand (1.7 mb/d out of 2.3 mb/d).
The world’s second largest economy will remain the mainstay of global expansion this year.
However, gains are projected to fall to 540 kb/d. In the absence of a dramatic acceleration in other
countries, this will result in a wider global slowdown.
In the decade up to 2023, almost two-thirds of all oil demand growth came from China. Over this
period, the nation’s GDP grew at an annual average rate of 6%. An expected slackening in economic
growth, to a rate of between 4% and 5% in 2024 and 2025 – combined with the rapid domestic
uptake of oil-substituting technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs) and high-speed rail – means
that in 2024 and 2025, only a little over one-third of oil demand growth is expected to come from
China.
Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15
Demand for aviation fuel is easing as air traffic stabilises
The other major driver of rising oil consumption in 2022 and 2023 was a steady recovery in air traffic
as pandemic-era travel restrictions were relaxed. Demand for jet fuel/kerosene, primarily from the
aviation sector, grew by more than 1 mb/d in both years and contributed almost half of the increase
in global oil demand.
However, gains have moderated since the first half of 2023, according to Airportia data. As a result,
the increase in demand for jet fuel/kerosene in 2024 is forecast to be far smaller, at 230 kb/d. In
addition to a stabilisation in air traffic, there have also been large gains in the fuel efficiency of
aircraft since 2019.
This has meant that, despite roughly equivalent activity, fuel demand from the sector was more than
6% lower in the second half of 2023 than in the same period in 2019. This trend is set to continue
as more new planes with vastly improved fuel economy enter the global fleet, helping to restrain the
impact of increasing demand for air travel on oil use during the medium term.
Global consumption of oil is set to peak, but its centrality remains
While we expect growth in oil consumption in 2024 (1.2 mb/d) and 2025 (1.1 mb/d) to remain robust
by historical standards, structural factors will lead to a gradual easing of oil demand growth over the
rest of this decade.
Continued rapid gains in the market share of EVs, particularly in China; steady improvements in
vehicle fuel economies; and, notably, efforts by Middle Eastern economies, especially Saudi Arabia,
to reduce the quantity of oil used in power generation are together expected to generate an overall
peak in demand by the turn of the decade.
Oil remains extremely important to the global economy, and across some of its key applications,
alternatives still cannot easily be substituted. In the absence of additional energy and climate
policies and an increased investment push into clean energy technologies, the decline in global oil
demand following the peak will not be a steep one, leaving demand close to current levels for some
time. Nevertheless, cooling Chinese demand growth and considerable progress on the deployment
of clean energy transition technologies mean that the oil market is set to enter a new and
consequential period of transformation.
Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16
NewBase Energy News 15- April - Issue No. 1716 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscriptions, please email us.
About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the
GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of
the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant,
advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks,
waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection
and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas
compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes.
Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation &
maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities.
Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has
participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and
panelist.
Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over
1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable
energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the
world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program
broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see
contact details above.
Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17

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NewBase 15 April 2024 Energy News issue - 1716 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf

  • 1. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 15 April 2024 No. 1716 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE: Masdar’s Green Hydrogen Summit Tomorrow in Abu Dhabi (WAM) Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company PJSC – Masdar has announced a stellar international lineup for its Green Hydrogen Summit including former UK Prime Minister Rt Hon Boris Johnson, ministerial speakers from the UAE, Azerbaijan, Japan and the Netherlands, industry leaders and global adventurer Dr. Bertrand Piccard. Masdar’s second Green Hydrogen Summit, taking place on 16th April at the World Future Energy Summit (WFES) in Abu Dhabi, will be held under the theme “Building the Hydrogen Economy: From Dialogue to Reality". It will convene hydrogen players worldwide for in-depth discussions to accelerate the green hydrogen economy in support of the energy transition. Keynote speaker Boris Johnson brings significant international experience of advancing clean energy initiatives. During his leadership as UK Prime Minister, Johnson laid out plans to develop a thriving low-carbon hydrogen sector as a key part of the country’s transition to net zero. Dr. Bertrand Piccard, Chairman of Climate Impulse, will also be speaking at the Summit. ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/
  • 2. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 During his session he will outline progress on his aim for the first hydrogen-powered flight to circumnavigate the planet. Dr. Piccard’s record-breaking adventures include the first non-stop balloon flight around the world, as well as Solar Impulse, the first flight around the world in a solar- powered aircraft. Hosted by the UAE’s clean energy champion Masdar, the Green Hydrogen Summit will feature a high-level ministerial panel focusing on national strategies and policies to accelerate green hydrogen economies. Ministers taking part in the panel include: Parviz Shahbazov, Minister of Energy, Azerbaijan; Yoshida Nobuhiro, Parliamentary Vice-Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan; and Frederik Wisselink, Energy Special Envoy, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, Netherlands. Abu Dhabi’s Low Carbon Hydrogen Policy, and its impact on crucial industries, will be the subject of another panel. Speakers in this session will include Ahmed Mohammed Al Rumaithi, Undersecretary, Abu Dhabi Department of Energy and Mohammad Abdelqader El-Ramahi, Chief Green Hydrogen Officer, Masdar, alongside other high-level Abu Dhabi stakeholders. The Green Hydrogen Summit will bring together the public and private sector, from policymakers and industry leaders to forward-thinking investors and pioneering entrepreneurs. A conversation on ‘Financing the Transition’ will focus on factors needed to make green hydrogen projects bankable, and will feature Lina Osman, Managing Director & Head - Sustainable Finance, Standard Chartered Bank and Dr. Michael Whiteley, Global Head Clean Hydrogen, HSBC, amongst other global finance leaders. There will also be a pan-regional focus looking at the development of green hydrogen economies in Asia, the US and Europe. Speakers include Daria Nochevnik, Director for Policy and Partnerships, Hydrogen Council; Joaquin Rodriguez Jadraque, Director of Hydrogen and Clean Energies, Cepsa; and Alicia Eastman, Host of Everything About Hydrogen and Board Member, InterContinental Energy. Other panels will spotlight hard-to-abate industries including aviation, shipping and heavy industry, with a key conversation on decarbonising the steel sector featuring industry leaders such as Micheal Rion, Chief Commercial Officer, Emirates Steel Arkan.
  • 3. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 Alec JV wins design-build contract for Abu Dhabi W-t-E plant TradeArabia News Service UAE-based Alec Engineering and Contracting has announced that its integrated joint venture with Lebanese builder Butec has secured the design-and-build contract for the first waste-to-energy (WtE) plant coming up in Abu Dhabi. A part of the Investment Corporate of Dubai (ICD), Alec is a leading construction Group operating in the GCC and Africa, while Butec, which is partially owned by the International Finance Corporation (a member of the World Bank Group), has a strong presence in 20 countries in Middle East and Africa. The Alec-Butec JV will be teaming up with the Swiss-based Hitachi Zosen Innova (HZI), a company renowned for its expertise in waste-to-energy technology, to collaborate on the construction of this project. Alec said the scope of work for the JV includes overseeing the engineering, procurement and construction of all non-process-related activities, encompassing tasks such as civil engineering, concrete and structural steel work, installation of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) systems, as well as building services. Additionally, the duo will manage external works and site infrastructure development, it stated. According to Alec, the ultra-large waste incineration facility, situated near the Al Dhafra landfill, will process 900,000 tonnes of non-recyclable waste annually over the next 30 years. The aim of the project is to prevent the release of nearly 1.1 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions per annum. Furthermore, the plant will add 80MW of power generation capacity from a non-fossil fuel source, it stated. On the contract win, Sean McQue, the Managing Director (Construction) at Alec, said: "We are pleased to have been selected for this crucial project, highlighting our commitment to sustainable progress within the region." "This W-t-E facility marks a significant milestone in Abu Dhabi's endeavours to tackle waste management issues and diminish greenhouse gas emissions. Alec's proficiency, combined with Butec's established excellence in design-build ventures, guarantees the successful execution of this landmark initiative," noted MCQue. Butec’s Country General Manager Hani Houalla said: "Our design-build expertise coupled with Alec’s distinguished construction capability positions us as a strong team ready to deliver impactful infrastructure projects like Abu Dhabi’s Waste-to-Energy facility." "We are proud to contribute to the UAE’s decarbonisation agenda and to this significant development," he added.-
  • 4. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 South Africa’s blackouts are driving a solar boom Bloomberg - Tim McDonnell Installations of solar panels are surging in South Africa as a growing number of households and businesses tire of recurrent power cuts. According to new data from the state-owned utility Eskom, the country added more than one gigawatt of solar in just the last two months, a 31% increase and more than it added in the preceding six months. “What you’re seeing in these numbers is households and the private sector taking matters in their own hands,” said Wikus Kruger, director of the Power Futures Lab at the University of Cape Town. “It’s being driven not by government policy per se, but by desperation.” Tim’s view South Africa’s solar boom shows how the falling costs of renewables have made them more viable as solutions to dysfunctional electric grids — for those who can afford them. Multi-hour blackouts are still a daily reality for most South Africans, as Eskom’s aging power network, which is heavily dependent on coal, drowns in debt and mismanagement, and can’t keep pace with demand. There were more hours of “load shedding” in the first six months of 2023 than in all of 2022, according to research firm Rystad Energy. The traditional alternative for households, diesel-fuel generators, are extremely expensive, not to mention noisy and polluting. The country’s
  • 5. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 solar market, on the other hand, has been boosted by record low prices offered by Chinese exporters, new tax credits, and regulatory reforms that made it easier for developers of large solar farms to sell power into the grid. Imports of home batteries are also soaring. But the solar boom is also a story of inequality. Solar is still unaffordable for a majority of South African households, which means uptake is likely to level off soon, Kruger said. “What we’re seeing now is the low-hanging fruit,” he said. “But I’m concerned about how sustainable this is.” At the same time, the mass abandonment of Eskom by higher-income households could subvert the utility’s traditional business model in a way that effectively causes low-income households to subsidize higher-income ones. Electricity bills include variable charges for power consumed, and fixed charges that pay for the use of grid infrastructure. A rich household that installs rooftop solar isn’t “off the grid” (they still need grid power at night, for example). But because solar-equipped households pay less overall, low-income households are stuck paying for a higher proportion of the fixed infrastructure costs. The upshot, Kruger said, is that the government needs to do more to make solar accessible to all households — potentially via higher taxes on fossil energy sales — in addition to the longstanding need to resolve Eskom’s litany of problems. For now, the solar boom is actually helping Eskom, which needs to generate that much less power as a result: “They need more generation on the grid, and this way they don’t have to pay for it,” Kruger said. But longer-term, the loss of revenue will only exacerbate the utility’s financial woes, leading to more blackouts and more defections — what experts call a utility “death spiral.” In the big picture of South Africa’s climate targets, all this new solar is still just a drop in the bucket. By 2030, the country is aiming to get 41% of its power from renewables, up from 11% today. But because total consumption is rising quickly, and because Eskom is still constructing massive new coal-fired power plants, the share from renewables will likely fall short of the 2030 target, according to Rystad. “The coal and gas South Africa is building will nullify a lot of the renewable energy growth,” Rystad analyst Nivedh Thaikoottathil said.
  • 6. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 China accounted for two-thirds of new global coal plant capacity CNBC - Dylan Butts@IN/DYLAN-B-7A451A107 The world added more coal power capacity last year than any year since 2016, with China driving most growth and future planned capacity, according to new research. A report by Global Energy Monitor released Thursday found that net annual coal capacity grew by 48.4 GW, representing a 2% year-over-year increase. China alone accounted for about two-thirds of new coal plant capacity. Other countries that brought new coal plants online included Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Japan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, South Korea, Greece and Zimbabwe. Meanwhile, other countries such as the U.S. and U.K., slowed their rate of plant closures, with only about 22.1 GW retired last year — the smallest amount since 2011. The authors of the GEM report recommended countries commit to shutting down coal plants at a faster pace, and for nations like China to adopt stricter controls on the development and usage of new plants. “Otherwise we can forget about meeting our goals in the Paris agreement and reaping the benefits that a swift transition to clean energy will bring,” said Flora Champenois, a Global Energy Monitor analyst. The Paris Climate agreement, signed by most global governments in 2015, set long-term goals for substantially reducing greenhouse gas emissions, caused by fossil fuels like coal. Coal power capacity, however, continues to steadily grow. China has separately set a goal of reaching net-zero by 2060. President Xi Jinping said in 2021 that China would “strictly control coal consumption” up to 2025 and “phase down coal consumption” thereafter. A report by Global Energy Monitor found that net coal capacity grew by 48.4 GW in 2023, with China accounting for about two-thirds of new coal plant capacity. China started construction on 70.2 GW of new coal-power capacity last year, almost 20 times the rest of the world’s 3.7 GW.
  • 7. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Yet, according to data from GEM, China started construction on 70.2 GW of new coal-power capacity last year, nearly 20 times as much as the rest of the world’s 3.7 GW. The country also only retired about 3.7 GW of its coal capacity in 2023. Despite this, GEM said that with “immediate and determined action,” China can still meet its climate targets, including a goal set by the National Energy Administration in 2022 to retire 30 GW of coal power by 2025. While low retirement rates contributed to coal’s blockbuster 2023, they are expected to accelerate in the U.S. and Europe, according to the report. That could offset some of the new capacity in China. “Coal’s fortunes this year are an anomaly, as all signs point to reversing course from this accelerated expansion,” said Champenois. Green energy addition, not transition? While China has been a major coal user, accounting for more than half of consumption since 2011, it also helped expand global renewable energy capacity. According to a report from the IEA, global renewable capacity additions increased by almost 50% to nearly 510 GW in 2023, the fastest growth rate in two decades. “While the increases in renewable capacity in Europe, the United States and Brazil hit all-time highs, China’s acceleration was extraordinary,” the report said. China commissioned as much solar capacity as the entire world did in 2022, while wind additions also soared 66% year-on-year, the IEA said. However, experts have argued that China’s rapid economic growth, combined with the unreliable and intermittent nature of renewable energy sources has kept coal as a critical fallback option for the manufacturing focused economy. China also ranks among the top five countries in terms of global coal reserves, but not other, less pollutant options like oil and natural gas, according to Rob Thummel, managing director at energy value chain investment company Tortoise. “In China, coal is the largest domestic energy resource, so China continues to tap it in order to maintain energy security,” Thummel added. The IEA estimates that all global coal generation needs to cease by 2040 to limit temperature rises within the key threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius. According to GEM, meeting this 2040 phase-out goal would require an average of 126 GW in coal plant capacity to be shutdown annually for the next 17 years — equivalent to about two coal plants per week. The required cuts are even deeper when accounting for the 578 GW of coal capacity under construction and in pre-construction, it added. As per GEM’s data, global coal capacity retirements still have not ever outpaced additions. The EU’s climate change monitoring service said on Tuesday that the world experienced its warmest March on record, marking the tenth month in a row of new temperature records.
  • 8. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 United States exported a record volume of natural gas in 2023 source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Monthly The United States exported 10% more natural gas in 2023 than in 2022, a record of 20.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), according to our Natural Gas Monthly. U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports accounted for more than half of all U.S. natural gas exports, and natural gas exports by pipeline to Canada and Mexico accounted for the remainder. LNG exports: LNG exports continued to drive the growth in total U.S. natural gas exports last year, increasing 12% (1.3 Bcf/d) from 2022. U.S. LNG exports averaged a record 13.6 Bcf/d in December 2023. The United States began exporting LNG from the Lower 48 states in 2016 when Sabine Pass LNG—the first LNG export terminal in the Lower 48 states—began operations. The United States supplied nearly half of Europe’s LNG imports last year. Exports by pipeline: U.S. natural gas exports by pipeline also increased last year. Exports to Canada increased 7% to 2.8 Bcf/d, and exports to Mexico increased 8% to 6.1 Bcf/d. In 2023, natural gas exports from the Northeast rose by more than 15% (0.2 Bcf/d), accounting for most of the increase in total natural gas exports to Canada. Most pipeline exports from the United States to Canada exit through New York in the Northeast and Michigan in the Midwest. Pipeline exports to Mexico from Texas increased 9% to 5.6 Bcf/d in 2023, with most of the growth coming from exports from West Texas, which increased by 20% (1.6 Bcf/d) compared with
  • 9. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 2022. Natural gas pipeline exports from West Texas to Mexico have grown steadily since 2017 as more connecting pipelines in Central and Southwest Mexico have entered service. Since 2017, the United States has exported more natural gas than it has imported. Prior to 2017, the last time U.S. natural gas exports exceeded natural gas imports was in 1956. Even as a net natural gas exporter in 2023, the United States imported 8.0 Bcf/d of natural gas, primarily by pipeline from Canada. Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Monthly Imports by pipeline: U.S. natural gas imports by pipeline, which come primarily from Canada, decreased by 3% last year compared with 2022 to 8.0 Bcf/d. Natural gas imports from Canada, which exceed U.S. natural gas exports to Canada, help support seasonal fluctuations in natural gas consumption in the United States and generally peak in January or February. Imports from Canada in January and February 2023 fell by 6% from the same period in 2022, in part because of milder winter weather and less natural gas consumption in the U.S. residential and commercial sectors. Wildfires in western Canada in April and May 2023 also disrupted deliveries from Canada, and imports from Canada in those months averaged 9% less than in the same period in 2022. LNG imports: U.S. LNG imports are much smaller than natural gas imports by pipeline, and the United States imported less than 0.1 Bcf/d of LNG during the last two years. Almost all LNG imports are delivered to the New England market, where natural gas imports have been an important source of supply during periods of high demand, particularly in the winter. Warmer-than-average temperatures in the Northeast at the beginning and end of 2023 reduced natural gas demand, resulting in lower LNG imports compared with 2022.
  • 10. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 NewBase April 15 -2024 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Oil slips as risk premium eases after Iran attack Reuters + NewBae Oil prices drifted lower on Monday, with the market downplaying the risk of broader regional conflagration after Iran's weekend attack on Israel. Brent futures for June delivery fell 81 cents, or about 0.9%, to $89.64 a barrel by 1335 GMT while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May delivery were down 69 cents, or about 0.8%, at $84.97. Oil benchmarks had risen on Friday in anticipation of Iran's retaliatory attack, with prices touching their highest since October. Iran's attack involved more than 300 missiles and drones, and was the first on Israel by another country in more than three decades, raising fears of a broader regional conflict affecting oil traffic through the Middle East. Iran saying it considers its retaliation to be over has lowered the geopolitical temperature, said Kpler analyst Viktor Katona, while John Evans at oil broker PVM said the Iranian drone and missile attack was "about as telegraphed a world event that people can remember". Oil price special coverage  Iran says it considers retaliation against Israel to be over  Benchmarks had risen in anticipation of Iran's attack  Uncertainty remains over Israeli response
  • 11. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 "They might as well have had big disco lights on them and towed banners with ‘come on ladies and gentlemen, please shoot me down’." The attack, which Iran called retaliation for an air strike on its Damascus consulate, caused only modest damage, with missiles shot down by Israel's Iron Dome defence system. "An attack was largely priced in over the days leading up to it. Also the limited damage and the fact that there was no loss of life means that maybe Israel's response will be more measured," said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING. Oil demand to grow by 2.25m bpd, says Opec NewBase + Arabian Business The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) said on Thursday that world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025, Reuters reported. In its monthly report, Opec predicted robust fuel use in the summer months and stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024, highlighting an unusually large gap between predictions of oil demand strength. Opec has indicated that it is more optimistic on the challenge of mitigating non-Opec supply growth in the coming months, with downward revisions to expected production growth outside the bloc in 2024 and 2025, reported S&P Global ratings. The recent uptick in prices - supported by the overlapping cuts by the wider Opec+ alliance and conflict in the Middle East and Europe - has led some analysts to forecast that the group may move to wind down some of its cuts in the second half of the year. Opec said in its closely watched monthly oil market report that it will remain vigilant and is prepared to act alongside its allies if necessary. "The robust oil demand outlook for the summer months warrants careful market monitoring, amid ongoing uncertainties, to ensure a sound and sustainable market balance," Opec said. It sees non-OECD regions, mainly China, the Middle East and other countries in Asia driving demand. The group next plans to discuss policy on June 1, but its agreements include the option to convene earlier, if market conditions warrant. Opec has forecast that non-Opec supply will grow by 1 million b/d in 2024 - revised down by 100,000 b/d from its previous report released in early March. It also revised down its estimate of non-Opec supply growth in 2025 by 100,000 b/d to 1.3 million b/d, the report said. Opec sees the bulk of this growth coming from the US, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and Norway. The bloc did not change its forecasts for global demand growth, or the call on its own crude in 2024 and 2025, according to S&P Global ratings. Opec expects global oil demand to grow by 2.2 million b/d in 2024, with slight upward revisions to OECD Europe demand estimates offset by downward revisions to Africa and the Middle East. It forecasts global demand growth of 1.8 million b/d in 2025. Opec's demand forecasts for its own crude were also unchanged at 28.5 million b/d in 2024, and 29 million b/d in 2025.
  • 12. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 The 2024 forecast is 1.9 million b/d above current production, which would give Opec significant influence over oil prices this year if it came to pass. Opec said that its March crude output was up 3,000 b/d month on month at 26.6 million b/d, according to secondary sources, including S&P Global analysts. On March 3, Opec+ countries with voluntary production cuts extended them until the end of the second quarter. Most countries' quotas will remain the same, but Russia will transition to a reduction rather than a supply cut, bringing its crude production levels in line with Saudi Arabia's in June, stated S&P Global ratings. Opec estimated OECD commercial oil stocks at 2.733 billion barrels as of February, down 25.7 million barrels month on month. That included an increase in crude stocks of 19.6 million barrels, and a fall of 45.3 million barrels in products stocks, it added.  Hawk Energy Sees Oil at $85-$100 This Year With Strong Demand Growth  That’s a ‘ foreseeable & sensible range,’ Hawk Energy CEO M. Al Shihabi says  Demand set to grow by 2.0 million barrels a day in 2024: Al Awadhi says
  • 13. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 NewBase Specual Coverage The Energy world –April 15 -2024 CLEAN ENERGY Oil demand growing at a slower pace as post-Covid rebound runs its course Toril Bosoni, Head of Oil Industry and Markets Division Ciarán Healy, Oil Market AnalystCommentary — 12 April 2024 Global oil demand growth returns to historical trend Global oil demand growth is currently in the midst of a slowdown and is expected to ease to 1.2 million barrels a day (mb/d) this year and 1.1 mb/d in 2025 – bringing a peak in consumption into view this decade. This is primarily the result of a normalisation of growth following the disruptions of 2020-2023, when oil markets were shaken by the Covid-19 pandemic and then the global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite the deceleration that is forecast, this level of oil demand growth remains largely in line with the pre-Covid trend, even amid muted expectations for global economic growth this year and increased deployment of clean energy technologies. In both 2022 and 2023, global oil consumption rose by more than 2 mb/d as economies continued their recoveries from the Covid-19 shock and saw spikes in personal mobility, along with exceptional releases of pent-up demand for travel and tourism. While there are reasonable grounds for uncertainty about how complete the global recovery is, both oil demand data and mobility indicators suggest that its pace has slowed sharply and that the period of demand growth above the historical average is coming to an end.
  • 14. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 China’s post-Covid rebound is running out of steam Without a steep fall in oil prices, a sudden resurgence in the post-pandemic recovery or an acceleration in economic activity, it is unlikely that global oil demand growth will approach the levels seen in 2022 and 2023. Indeed, the pace of gains slowed substantially in the second half of 2023, and the latest data shows that the trend continued at the beginning of 2024. Oil use increased by an estimated 1.6 mb/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, down from 1.9 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2023 and more than 3 mb/d during the middle of last year. Given that China was the last major economy to lift public health restrictions related to the pandemic and saw an abrupt economic recovery in mid-2023, this easing of year-on-year demand growth is likely to continue during 2024. Indeed, because the timing of Chinese lockdowns was quite different from the rest of the world, global oil demand growth in 2023 was extremely dependent on the country. With the explosive phase of the pandemic rebound largely complete elsewhere, China contributed to more than three- quarters of the global increase in demand (1.7 mb/d out of 2.3 mb/d). The world’s second largest economy will remain the mainstay of global expansion this year. However, gains are projected to fall to 540 kb/d. In the absence of a dramatic acceleration in other countries, this will result in a wider global slowdown. In the decade up to 2023, almost two-thirds of all oil demand growth came from China. Over this period, the nation’s GDP grew at an annual average rate of 6%. An expected slackening in economic growth, to a rate of between 4% and 5% in 2024 and 2025 – combined with the rapid domestic uptake of oil-substituting technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs) and high-speed rail – means that in 2024 and 2025, only a little over one-third of oil demand growth is expected to come from China.
  • 15. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 Demand for aviation fuel is easing as air traffic stabilises The other major driver of rising oil consumption in 2022 and 2023 was a steady recovery in air traffic as pandemic-era travel restrictions were relaxed. Demand for jet fuel/kerosene, primarily from the aviation sector, grew by more than 1 mb/d in both years and contributed almost half of the increase in global oil demand. However, gains have moderated since the first half of 2023, according to Airportia data. As a result, the increase in demand for jet fuel/kerosene in 2024 is forecast to be far smaller, at 230 kb/d. In addition to a stabilisation in air traffic, there have also been large gains in the fuel efficiency of aircraft since 2019. This has meant that, despite roughly equivalent activity, fuel demand from the sector was more than 6% lower in the second half of 2023 than in the same period in 2019. This trend is set to continue as more new planes with vastly improved fuel economy enter the global fleet, helping to restrain the impact of increasing demand for air travel on oil use during the medium term. Global consumption of oil is set to peak, but its centrality remains While we expect growth in oil consumption in 2024 (1.2 mb/d) and 2025 (1.1 mb/d) to remain robust by historical standards, structural factors will lead to a gradual easing of oil demand growth over the rest of this decade. Continued rapid gains in the market share of EVs, particularly in China; steady improvements in vehicle fuel economies; and, notably, efforts by Middle Eastern economies, especially Saudi Arabia, to reduce the quantity of oil used in power generation are together expected to generate an overall peak in demand by the turn of the decade. Oil remains extremely important to the global economy, and across some of its key applications, alternatives still cannot easily be substituted. In the absence of additional energy and climate policies and an increased investment push into clean energy technologies, the decline in global oil demand following the peak will not be a steep one, leaving demand close to current levels for some time. Nevertheless, cooling Chinese demand growth and considerable progress on the deployment of clean energy transition technologies mean that the oil market is set to enter a new and consequential period of transformation.
  • 16. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 NewBase Energy News 15- April - Issue No. 1716 call on +971504822502, UAE The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscriptions, please email us. About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b Mobile: +971504822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S. Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant, advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks, waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East, Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes. Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation & maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities. Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and panelist. Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over 1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see contact details above.
  • 17. Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17