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NewBase 16 March 2015 - Issue No. 561 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Qatar: Energy exports term sales to help Qatar ‘partially shield’
its budget from price fall, says IIF
Gulf Times + NewBase
Term sales in energy exports will help Qatar “partially shield” its nine-month budget for 2015 from
the collapse in prices, Institute of International Finance (IIF) has said in a report. Qatar’s budget
year has been changed from April-March to a calendar year, starting from 2016.
Nevertheless, the authorities have indicated there will be some fiscal consolidation. In particular,
current expenditures are expected to be reviewed, which IIF assumes will grow at about 3%, down
from an average of about 18% a year since 2000.
The country’s capital expenditures are expected to be maintained at high levels, although some
“non-core projects could be deferred”. Revenues will inevitably be impacted by lower oil/gas prices
flowing to the budget, with the full impact being felt with a delay of about six months because of
term sales.
Moreover, since a portion of other fiscal income is based on receipts from entities with interests in
the hydrocarbon sector, ostensibly non-hydrocarbon revenues are expected to be adversely
affected as well.
Taking the lead in the GCC, Qatar has been successful in raising corporate income tax revenues
by widening the tax base from about 9% of revenues in 2011 to about 19% in 2013, IIF said.
“However, there is scope for additional fiscal measures,” the Institute of International Finance said.
This could help achieve further revenue diversification through, for example, the introduction of
Qatar is the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the world, and the country's exports of
LNG, crude oil, and petroleum products provide a significant portion of government revenues.
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real estate transaction fees, and mitigate the risks of boom/bust episodes. Higher energy and
utility prices could be used to control growth in demand.
“It remains to be seen to what extent, if at all, these measures are implemented,” IIF said. Despite
Qatar’s large net foreign assets, IIF said the gross public debt including major government-related
entities, but excluding banks, has risen in recent years to about 67% of GDP, of which external
debt is equivalent to about 25% of GDP.
These obligations are partially offset by large public sector deposits with domestic banks
equivalent to 18% of GDP. Gross central government debt is low at about 25% of GDP and net
central government debt is even lower, estimated at 17% of GDP.
Government interest debt service is estimated at about 4% of GDP, of which 67% are interest
payments on domestic debt. Gross debt of the country’s champions in aviation, petroleum,
telecom, and real estate sectors amounts to about 42% of GDP, of which about 55% is external
debt. The debt service is spread over the long term and manageable.
Nevertheless, the Ministry of Finance has been overseeing all external and domestic borrowing by
state entities other than Qatar Petroleum since 2013 as part of a deleveraging strategy.
Gross foreign liabilities of the banking system are at about 30% of GDP, but these are offset by
equally large foreign assets, resulting in net foreign liabilities of a mere 4% of GDP in 2014.
‘Inflation expected to remain low’
Inflation in Qatar is expected to remain low due to muted global price pressure and a strong dollar,
which maintains fixed exchange parity with the riyal; even as pressures exist in the housing
sector, according to Institute of International Finance (IIF).
Inflation is expected to decline to an average of 2.4% in 2015 from 3% in 2014 and remains close
to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) average, IIF said. The housing category, with still the
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largest weight in the consumer price index, is the main source of inflation despite the introduction
of new properties, suggesting demand may outstrip supply, it said.
While there have also been price pressures in the education and healthcare sectors, these have
eased, although price control measures whereby fee increases require authorities’ approval are
“keeping a lid” on measured inflation, while efforts are being made to increase the supply of such
services.
With inflation to remain low, IIF said monetary policy would remain “accommodative” in the context
of the peg to the dollar. “The potential increase in interest rates in the US are expected to be
matched, albeit with a delay of possibility of several months given some differential in the policy
rates, with the central bank deposit rate at 0.75%, while the repo and lending rates at 4.5%,” it
said.
The rise in interest rates could work through multiple channels such as a weakening in credit
quality, particularly since most lending is based on floating rates and mark-to-market impact on
securities, it added.
“There could also be a contagion due to global financial volatility during the US monetary policy
normalisation process. The expected relative tightening in credit conditions and increase in
interest rates from record-low levels could lead to a drag on the economic activity,” IIF said.
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redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
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UAE :DEWA announces Shams Dubai to regulate generation of solar
energy in buildings and connection to its grid. WAM + NewBase
Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD and CEO of Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, DEWA has
announced the start of DEWA’s first smart initiative, Shams Dubai, to regulate the generation of
solar energy in buildings and their connection to DEWA’s grid.
The move supports the
Smart Dubai initiative and
the vision of Vice President
and Prime Minister and
Ruler of Dubai, His
Highness Sheikh
Mohammed bin Rashid Al
Maktoum, to transform
Dubai into the smartest city
in the world in three years
through 100 initiatives and
1,000 smart services that
enhance the quality of life in
the emirate and achieve its
sustainable development.
The press conference was
attended by Ahmed bin Byat, Member of the Higher Committee to Transform Dubai into a Smart
City, Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Smart Dubai Initiative, Dr. Aisha bin Bishr,
Assistant Director-General of the Executive Office, Member of the Smart Dubai Executive
Committee and Team Leader of the Smart City Taskforce, Ahmed Buti Al Muhairbi, Secretary-
General of the Dubai Supreme Council of Energy, Abdul Aziz Abdulla Al Midfa, Chairman of the
Middle East Solar Industry Association, senior officials from the Dubai Supreme Council of
Energy, DEWA’s Executive Vice Presidents, Vice Presidents, corporate representatives and
members of the press.
Shams Dubai encourages tenants and building owners to install photovoltaic solar panels to
generate electricity. DEWA will connect the system to its network. The electricity will be used
onsite and the surplus is exported to DEWA’s grid. This encourages the use of renewable energy,
increases its share in electricity production and diversifies the energy mix.
"To support the Smart Dubai initiative, launched by His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid,
to make Dubai the smartest city on earth, and make life easier through the efficient, integrated,
seamless and sustainable use of resources, we today have begun the implementation phase of
the first smart initiative, Shams Dubai.
This is one of the three initiatives we launched last year to significantly improve the services
provided to partners and customers, and make Dubai the smartest city in the world during the next
three years. This will enable the city’s facilities and services to be managed using smart and
connected systems that enhance living standards for all of Dubai’s residents and visitors," said Al
Tayer.
"Shams Dubai supports the Green Economy for Sustainable Development economic initiative
launched by His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, and implements Council
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Resolution Number 46 of 2014, issued by H.H. Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al
Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai and Chairman of Dubai Executive Council, to enable customers
to install photovoltaic panels to generate electricity from solar power in buildings, and connect
them to DEWA’s grid.
"This smart initiative also supports Dubai Plan 2021 and the Dubai Integrated Energy Strategy
2030, to develop sustainable energy projects in Dubai
by increasing the targets for renewable energy in the
emirate’s energy mix to 7 percent by 2020 and 15
percent by 2030.
"DEWA supports the vision of our wise leadership,
which outlines the roadmap for our work and initiatives
to enhance the competitiveness of the UAE and Dubai.
We are fully-prepared to effectively and positively
contribute to building Smart Dubai and add to the
happiness of citizens and residents," he added.
"Last week, we announced the first project under the first smart initiative, in collaboration with
Dubai Airports, to supply Dubai World Central - Al Maktoum International Airport in Jebel Ali with
solar energy. The first step in implementing the initiative was installing photovoltaic panels to
produce 30kW of electricity there.
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redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 6
Iraq: Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation Farms Into Block 9
Egypt’s national energy firm Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) has signed an
agreement to farm into Block 9 in Iraq.
Kuwait Energy and Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation on Sunday jointly announced signing
of an agreement whereby EGPC has farmed in a 10 percent participating interest in Block 9,
which is located in the Iraq's Basra region.
With this agreement, EGPC has become a partner with Dragon Oil Holdings Limited and Kuwait
Energy, in the Block 9 license, where Kuwait Energy is the operator.
Tarek El Molla, EGPC CEO stated: “We are pleased to announce EGPC’s first international
investment. The merit of this investment is its contribution to building an economic relationship
between Iraq and Egypt.”
The Exploration, Development & Production Service Contract (EDPSC) pertaining to Block 9 was
signed in January 2013 after the award in 2012.
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Iraq: Oil majors companies offer to cut 2015 spending
Reuters + NewBase
Oil companies have proposed millions of dollars of cuts in development spending in Iraq, a senior
oil ministry official said, after Baghdad told them low oil prices and its fight against Islamic State
had made payments difficult.
In a series of letters sent to companies such as Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Exxon Mobil since
January, seen by Reuters , the oil ministry set out the need for change in response to "the rapid
drastic decrease in crude oil prices."
The slump in crude prices to below $60 a barrel from $115 in June has slashed government
revenues in Iraq, OPEC's second biggest exporter, just as it faces economic crisis triggered by
Islamic State's seizure of north and western provinces and surging expenditure to fund a military
counter-offensive.
In view of the fact that a significant proportion of development costs are passed on to Iraq, the oil
ministry called on firms to revise their oilfield development plans by considering postponing new
projects and delaying already committed projects as long as no additional costs were incurred.
They should cut development budgets "by a certain percentage" and request subcontractors to
reduce costs in order to match "the new oil prices world," the ministry said. Those cuts should be
made against a backdrop of maintaining or even increasing current oil production levels, the
February letter added, requesting a response by the end of that month.
Most companies have replied, a senior oil ministry official said, with the largest offered cut in
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redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 8
spending coming from Shell, which proposed slashing investment spending this year by more than
a third to $1.5 billion from $2.4 billion.
BP proposed a cut to $3.25 billion from $3.50 billion, Lukoil to $2.1 billion from $2.3 billion, while
Exxon Mobil said it planned to maintain development spending at $1.8 billion and Eni had yet to
reply, he said.
"No direct meetings have been held with any of the foreign companies. We are now only testing
waters with them via correspondence," said the official, who declined to be named because of the
confidential nature of the correspondence.
A BP spokesman said the company held regular, confidential discussions with Baghdad about the
development of the Rumaila field, which was operating normally. A spokesman for Lukoil said the
firm had received a letter from Iraq asking to postpone all new developments or reduce works in
2015, adding: "We are studying it." The
West Qurna project was developing on
schedule and unchanged so far.
Exxon, the lead contractor to rehabilitate
West Qurna, declined to comment. Chief
Executive Officer Rex Tillerson said last
week it was talking with Baghdad on
restructuring oil agreements to help the
government meet its near term cash
needs. Eni and Shell were not
immediately available for comment.
SHARING RISKS
International firms operate in Iraq's southern oilfields under service contracts, currently based on a
fixed dollar fee for additional volumes produced - a formula which has seen Baghdad's bills
ballooning just as its oil revenues collapse.
"The oil ministry has irreversibly taken the decision to amend its service contracts with foreign
firms, due to the cash crisis brought by oil prices drop," the ministry official said. "We have to
acknowledge that current contracts were hastily drafted and short-sighted in failing to take into
consideration the impact of a potential oil price crash."
A letter sent to oil firms last month asked them to propose amendments to their contracts "based
on the linkage between oil prices and cost recovery and due remuneration as a sliding scale," so
that both sides "take the risk and enjoy the reward."
The proposed amendment did not mean Baghdad was planning a formal move to production
sharing contracts, but finding a middle ground between that and the current arrangements. "We
should fix these flaws to save our economy from collapsing," the official said.
A source at one of the oil majors said such discussions were not unusual: "For the past five years
we had cost inflation in the industry as oil prices rose. Now we have cost deflation as prices fall.
We renegotiate contracts with service and engineering companies all over the world to achieve
lower costs without impacting production."
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Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mehdi said 10 days ago that Iraq was renegotiating the contracts with a
view to restoring Iraq's state share to around 20 to 25 percent, after it was reduced in recent
amendments to around 5 percent.
He said that under current contract terms, Iraq's payments due to international companies in 2015
would reach $18 billion. It has already accumulated debts from last year and 2013. The
government says it has started work on issuing a Treasury bond, and may resort to seeking
forward payment for exports to address its growing debts to the firms, Finance Minister Hoshiyar
Zebari said.
For now, sources say, Iraq is not providing the service companies with the repayment volumes
they are due and is instead sometimes assigning more cargoes to companies who purchase its
crude for cash under term contracts in monthly export schedules.
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China’s plan to grow cleaner, but economical difficulties a head
The National + NewBase
Even as research done for the Wall Street Journal suggested that air quality in Beijing improved
slightly last year, Chinese authorities were so disturbed by a TV documentary on pollution in the
country that they removed it from websites.
Nevertheless, carbon dioxide emissions dropped last year, a remarkable feat for this coal-
dependent nation. Slowing energy demand is good news for the environment, but not so much for
those countries who have founded their economic success on supplying China with raw materials.
The Middle Kingdom’s voracious appetite has upturned global energy markets over the past
decade. It accounted for nearly half of oil demand growth from 2000 to 2013. Since the early
1990s, its coal consumption rose by more than threefold, oil consumption quadrupled and gas use
grew by more than a factor of 10.
Chinese oil executives turned up first in Khartoum and Astana, then Houston, Calgary and
Moscow, to strike deals. Prices for oil, gas, coal and a host of other commodities – copper,
aluminium, wheat – reached record highs in 2008.
But now Chinese energy demand faces two headwinds – the economy will grow more slowly, and
that growth will be less energy-intensive. Commodity producers need to take warning. The sharp
fall in oil prices last summer has introduced a world where resources are more abundant than
demand.
If China is to continue its dramatic ascent of the past three decades, it faces some daunting
challenges: to transform its political system and sources of popular legitimacy; rebalance its
economy from heavy industry towards knowledge and services; meet its still-growing energy
needs in a more diverse and secure way; and clean up its clouded skies and waters.
All these endeavours will weigh heavily on energy demand. We might discount the possibility of
the fall of the country’s Communist party and a period of political upheaval, raised by the United
States academic David Shambaugh in a recent Wall Street Journal article. An economic crisis
triggered by a build-up of bad debt and overinvestment has been repeatedly predicted, but so far
avoided. The economy, however, has already shifted on to a slower track – after regularly
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in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 11
recording double-digit growth up to the financial crisis, expansion from now on is more likely to be
about 7 per cent or less annually.
The president Xi Jinping’s new growth strategy advocates a shift away from infrastructure and
heavy industry towards higher value-added manufacturing and services. The government has
already acted to reduce overcapacity in steel making, cement and coal mining, with coal
consumption planned to be capped by 2020 just 10.5 per cent above today’s level.
Energy efficiency is being stepped up, with car mileage standards more stringent than that of the
US, and higher taxes on fuel use. Less coal use means less diesel consumed to haul it around the
country. Natural gas, renewables and nuclear power are slowing the growth of coal-fired power.
Might other countries take up the slack? India, now the fastest-growing large economy, is the
obvious candidate. But its oil consumption is now only where China’s was in 1996. For a host of
reasons – a more open political system, less industrialised economy, and higher population
density – it seems unlikely that India will record the relentless economic and energy demand
growth that China did.
Africa, which uses about as much oil as India, is even further behind in the phase of resource-
intensive industrialisation, and with growth very unevenly distributed. Slower growth in China’s use
of resources is bad news for miners of coal and iron in Australia, Indonesia and Brazil, and oil
producers in the Middle East, Russia, the Caspian Sea area and Venezuela.
Of course China will continue to be a major – probably the major – influence on world oil demand.
But it will no longer be the global energy consumer of last resort. Indeed, there no longer is such a
consumer.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 12
Oil Price Drop Special Coverage
Oil prices drop again and countries build up inventories
Oil prices look set to remain under pressure as supply chugs along while inventories in major
economies continue their relentless rise.
The steepest decline so far this year was registered in the past week, with world benchmark North
Sea Brent crude falling by more than 4 per cent on Friday alone to end at US$54.67 per barrel,
reversing some of the gains of nearly 20 per cent made during the recovery in January and
February, when Brent pushed above $60.
Yesterday, Ibrahim Al
Muhanna, a former
spokesman for Ali Al
Naimi, Saudi
Arabia’s oil minister, and
still an adviser to the
ministry, offered some
soothing words about the
outlook for oil prices.
Speaking in Doha, Qatar,
he said that “demand is
and will be stronger” and
suggested that “Saudi
Arabia has never been in
a price war with anyone”.
That is not the perception of the market, however. Just over a week ago, Mohsen Qamsari, the
head of international affairs at the National Iranian Oil Company, said that “the Islamic Republic is
set to inject more oil into the world market in an attempt to raise market share”, according to Iran’s
state Fars News Agency.
Saudi Arabia and Iran – and other suppliers from the Arabian Gulf – have been competing fiercely
for market share and lowering their prices for Chinese, Indian and other major customers in Asia,
since last summer.
Last month, Irna, another official Iranian news agency, quoted Seyyid Muhsin Kemseri, Iranian
National Petrol Company international relations director, as saying of Saudi Arabia’s deep
discounting for Asian customers: “There is extremely fierce competition in the market and if we
were in Saudi Arabia’s shoes, we would have done the same”.
In its latest monthly market report on Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the rich
countries’ main energy think tank, warned: “Behind the facade of stability, the rebalancing
triggered by the price collapse has yet to run its course, and it might be overly optimistic to expect
it to proceed smoothly”.
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Demand has recovered over the past year but has been outstripped by supply, the IEA reported.
Global supply in February was an estimated 94 million barrels per day, up 1.3 million bpd year on
year, with almost all the extra supply coming from North America. Declines in the number of oil
rigs operated in the US “have yet to dent North American output growth”, according to the IEA,
which added that the sector’s resilience even in the face of lower oil prices meant it would be
raising its forecast for North American output for this year.
Higher output from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Angola offset some losses from troubled Libya and
Iraq, which meant that overall output from Opec was little changed last month at just more than 30
million bpd.
The IEA said that oil refineries are starting to increase their run rates after a period of
maintenance, which should help to slow the rate of inventory building over the next few weeks.
But it added that “stocks may soon test storage capacity limits [and] that would inevitably lead to
renewed price weakness, which in turn could trigger the supply cuts that have so far remained
elusive”.
The think tank does not expect relief any time soon from demand, concluding: “There are still few
firm signs at this stage that lower prices are giving the economy a real boost”.
Oil Falls to 6-Year Low as Dollar Holds Gain; China Shares Rally
Bloomberg + NewBase
Oil touched its lowest level since 2009 amid increased projections for U.S. production, while the
dollar weakened from its strongest level in more than a decade before this week’s Federal
Reserve meeting. Chinese shares rose as the government vowed to support economic expansion.
West Texas
Intermediate crude
dropped 1.1 percent
to $44.37 a barrel by
12:43 p.m. in Tokyo,
after earlier falling to
as low as $43.57. The
Bloomberg Dollar
Spot Index declined
0.2 percent as the
greenback weakened
0.3 percent to $1.0525
per euro. The
Shanghai Composite
Index advanced 1.8 percent after China’s Premier Li Keqiang pledged to take action if slowing
growth threatens job creation or wages. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed.
U.S. oil dropped 9.6 percent last week and speculators cut bullish wagers to the lowest in more
than two years as falling rig counts fail to cool a supply glut. The Fed may remove the word
“patient” from its statement this week, giving it more flexibility on the timing of interest-rate
increases as U.S. monetary policy diverges from efforts by European and Asia-Pacific policy
makers to shore up growth.
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“Crude has performed even worse with the strong dollar as it’s been having its own demand and
supply issues,” said Hong Sung Ki, a commodities analyst at Samsung Futures Inc. in Seoul. “We
are seeing diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and other major central
banks, especially the ECB. Investors are curious whether the Fed will raise rates in June.”
Brent Slide
West Texas Intermediate crude lost 4.7 percent on Friday, and capped a fourth straight weekly
retreat. Brent, the benchmark contract for more than half of global oil, fell 0.8 percent to $54.26
per barrel following Friday’s 4.2 percent retreat.
The U.S. surplus may soon strain the country’s
storage capacity, renewing the slump in oil prices,
the International Energy Agency said Friday. U.S.
production will expand this year by about 750,000
barrels a day to 12.56 million a day, the IEA said.
Hedge funds and other money managers reduced
their net-long position in WTI by 2.5 percent in the
seven days ended March 10, U.S. Commodity
Futures Trading Commission data show.
A gauge of energy producers dropped the most among the 10 industries on the MSCI Asia Pacific
Index. South Korea’s S-Oil Corp. tumbled 4.1 percent and Japan’s Inpex Corp. retreated 4
percent. Santos Ltd., Australia’s No. 3 producer, fell 2.1 percent while BHP Billiton Ltd., the
world’s biggest miner, decreased 1.3 percent for a 10th straight drop, the longest losing streak
since 1998.
Dollar, Won
Anger over alleged bribes and kickbacks at Brazil’s state-run oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA
brought more than 1 million people to the streets Sunday demanding President Dilma Rousseff’s
impeachment. The Next Funds Ibovespa Linked Exchange Traded Fund, which tracks Brazilian
shares, dropped 1.2 percent in Tokyo.
The Bloomberg dollar gauge, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, climbed 0.8
percent on Friday to its highest level in data going back to the end of 2004.
The euro is heading for its biggest ever quarterly loss versus the dollar after the region’s central
bank took deposit rates below zero and began buying bonds as tries to stave off deflation. The
dollar touched $1.0458 to the euro today, the strongest versus the joint currency since January
2003.
The won slipped a sixth day, losing 0.6 percent to 1,134.96 per dollar and touching its weakest
level since July 2013. Korea’s currency retreated 2.7 percent last week, the most since 2011, as
the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. Malaysia’s ringgit dropped 0.6 percent to 3.7058
a dollar.
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Aussie Bears
The Australian dollar added 0.1 percent to 76.43 U.S. cents, after sliding 0.9 percent on Friday.
Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March 3 meeting, when the key rate was held at 2.25
percent after a cut in February, are due Tuesday.
Investors raised their bearish bets on the Australian dollar to a record as BlackRock Inc., the
world’s largest money manager, expects the currency to plunge to levels well below what the RBA
prefers. Traders wager there’s a 50 percent change the RBA will reduce borrowing costs again
within six months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from swap contracts.
Policy makers will take action if China’s growth, which the government targeted at about 7 percent
this year, drifts toward the lower limit of its range and cuts into employment or wages, Premier Li
told reporters. While stripping the government of some of its role in the world’s second-largest
economy may face resistance from vested interests, it is crucial, he said.
The Shanghai Composite, the world’s best-performing benchmark stock gauge last year, is up 6
percent this year and is heading for a fourth straight advance. The number of new mainland stock
accounts surged in the two weeks through March 6. A gauge of mainland companies listed in
Hong Kong advanced 0.6 percent and the Hang Seng Index increased 0.4 percent.
U.S. Seeks More Crude for Strategic Reserve After 2014 Sale
Bloomberg + NewBase
The U.S. government wants to buy up to 5 million barrels of crude to store in its strategic reserve
on the Gulf Coast.
The Energy Department wants the crude
delivered to its Bryan Mound storage cavern
near Freeport, Texas, in June or July,
according to a pre-solicitation notice posted on
federal websites today. The purchase follows
a 5 million-barrel test sale last spring, when oil
prices were nearly double what they are now.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve purchase
comes as booming shale oil production has
pushed private oil inventories in the U.S. to
449 million barrels, the most in records dating
back to 1982. The reserve has 691 million barrels and 36 million barrels of empty space.
“Commercial storage is filling up,” said David Hackett, president of Stillwater Associates, an
energy consulting firm in Irvine, California. “If they buy domestic oil and put it in the SPR, that
creates 5 million more barrels of space in commercial storage.”
The law requires the Energy Department to use the funds from last year’s test sale to purchase
replacement crude, Robert Dillon, spokesman for Senate Energy and Natural Resources
Committee Chairman Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, said in an e-mail.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 16
The government plans to officially post its tender offer on its websites about March 23, according
to the notice.
Peak Inventory
The purchase will be the first for the reserve since it reached its peak inventory level of about 727
million barrels in December
2009. It released 31 million
barrels in 2011 to help offset
supply disruptions caused by
upheaval in the Middle East
and North Africa, and
exchanged 1 million with
Marathon Petroleum Corp. after
Hurricane Isaac blocked
tankers from delivering crude to
the company’s Garyville
refinery in Louisiana.
The SPR, which was created in
the 1970s in response to the
Arab oil embargo, has four
underground storage caverns
in Texas and Louisiana. The
Bryan Mound site has 241
million barrels in storage now.
When the reserve finished
filling in 2009, it held the
equivalent of 80 days worth of
crude imports to the U.S.
Booming domestic oil
production from shale wells has
cut inbound shipments since
then, and the reserve now
holds 94 days of imports based
on 2014 data.
“This is all happening at the
same time that a debate is
going on about whether we
really need 700 million barrels
in the SPR given the increase
in production in the U.S., so it is
surprising,” said Andy Lipow,
president of Lipow Oil
Associates LLC in Houston.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 17
IEA Sees China, India Filling Strategic Reserves With Cheap Oil
Bloomberg + NewBase
China and India are set to fill up their strategic petroleum reserves this year, taking advantage of
lower oil prices, according to the International Energy Agency.
The two nations are building emergency stockpiles with millions of barrels of crude that mirror the
reserves of oil and refined products that the U.S. and its western allies amassed after the first oil
crisis of 1973 to 1974. “Cheaper oil facilitates the building of strategic reserves,” the Paris-based
IEA said on Friday in its monthly oil market report.
The purchases, if confirmed, will add to global oil consumption growth, the IEA said, offsetting
“current weak fundamentals” of supply and demand and potentially boosting prices. Brent crude, a
global oil benchmark, has fallen 47 percent over the past year to trade at $57.03 a barrel at 8:53
a.m. in London.
“Since oil prices began their rapid retreat last June, the import bills of oil-importing economies
have declined,” the IEA said. “This has assisted governments in many of these countries in either
adding to their strategic reserves or putting in place firm budgetary provisions to increase oil
holdings.”
The energy watchdog said China was “expected to again stockpile crude in 2015” as it completes
new tanking capacity. Beijing in November for the first time revealed details of its oil stockpiling
program, saying it held about 91 million barrels in four different locations. The U.S. holds 696
millions barrels of oil in its emergency reserve, the largest in the world.
Indian Storage
India has yet to start storing crude oil, but the IEA said the government has approved a $338
million budget to cover the filling of its first emergency tanks this year. At current prices, that would
amount to 6.5 million to 7 million barrels of crude. The Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd.,
the company in charge of the stockpile, has already built a tank farm in eastern India capable of
holding 10 million barrels of crude. Another two facilities in western India are expected to be
completed by the end of the year, adding a combined 28 million barrels of capacity.
The IEA, adviser to 29 oil-consuming nations, said Vietnam has also used lower oil prices to boost its
commercial stockpiles held at refineries. China and India have said in the past they need to build strategic
reserves to offset the risk of a disruption in supplies, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa. Western
countries have used their strategic reserves only three times over the past 35 years, during the first Gulf
War in Iraq in 1991, after hurricane Katrina in 2005 and in 2011, after the start of the war in Libya.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 18
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile : +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years , he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations
and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 16 March 2015 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 19
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 20

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Qatar Energy Exports

  • 1. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 1 NewBase 16 March 2015 - Issue No. 561 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Qatar: Energy exports term sales to help Qatar ‘partially shield’ its budget from price fall, says IIF Gulf Times + NewBase Term sales in energy exports will help Qatar “partially shield” its nine-month budget for 2015 from the collapse in prices, Institute of International Finance (IIF) has said in a report. Qatar’s budget year has been changed from April-March to a calendar year, starting from 2016. Nevertheless, the authorities have indicated there will be some fiscal consolidation. In particular, current expenditures are expected to be reviewed, which IIF assumes will grow at about 3%, down from an average of about 18% a year since 2000. The country’s capital expenditures are expected to be maintained at high levels, although some “non-core projects could be deferred”. Revenues will inevitably be impacted by lower oil/gas prices flowing to the budget, with the full impact being felt with a delay of about six months because of term sales. Moreover, since a portion of other fiscal income is based on receipts from entities with interests in the hydrocarbon sector, ostensibly non-hydrocarbon revenues are expected to be adversely affected as well. Taking the lead in the GCC, Qatar has been successful in raising corporate income tax revenues by widening the tax base from about 9% of revenues in 2011 to about 19% in 2013, IIF said. “However, there is scope for additional fiscal measures,” the Institute of International Finance said. This could help achieve further revenue diversification through, for example, the introduction of Qatar is the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the world, and the country's exports of LNG, crude oil, and petroleum products provide a significant portion of government revenues.
  • 2. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 2 real estate transaction fees, and mitigate the risks of boom/bust episodes. Higher energy and utility prices could be used to control growth in demand. “It remains to be seen to what extent, if at all, these measures are implemented,” IIF said. Despite Qatar’s large net foreign assets, IIF said the gross public debt including major government-related entities, but excluding banks, has risen in recent years to about 67% of GDP, of which external debt is equivalent to about 25% of GDP. These obligations are partially offset by large public sector deposits with domestic banks equivalent to 18% of GDP. Gross central government debt is low at about 25% of GDP and net central government debt is even lower, estimated at 17% of GDP. Government interest debt service is estimated at about 4% of GDP, of which 67% are interest payments on domestic debt. Gross debt of the country’s champions in aviation, petroleum, telecom, and real estate sectors amounts to about 42% of GDP, of which about 55% is external debt. The debt service is spread over the long term and manageable. Nevertheless, the Ministry of Finance has been overseeing all external and domestic borrowing by state entities other than Qatar Petroleum since 2013 as part of a deleveraging strategy. Gross foreign liabilities of the banking system are at about 30% of GDP, but these are offset by equally large foreign assets, resulting in net foreign liabilities of a mere 4% of GDP in 2014. ‘Inflation expected to remain low’ Inflation in Qatar is expected to remain low due to muted global price pressure and a strong dollar, which maintains fixed exchange parity with the riyal; even as pressures exist in the housing sector, according to Institute of International Finance (IIF). Inflation is expected to decline to an average of 2.4% in 2015 from 3% in 2014 and remains close to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) average, IIF said. The housing category, with still the
  • 3. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 3 largest weight in the consumer price index, is the main source of inflation despite the introduction of new properties, suggesting demand may outstrip supply, it said. While there have also been price pressures in the education and healthcare sectors, these have eased, although price control measures whereby fee increases require authorities’ approval are “keeping a lid” on measured inflation, while efforts are being made to increase the supply of such services. With inflation to remain low, IIF said monetary policy would remain “accommodative” in the context of the peg to the dollar. “The potential increase in interest rates in the US are expected to be matched, albeit with a delay of possibility of several months given some differential in the policy rates, with the central bank deposit rate at 0.75%, while the repo and lending rates at 4.5%,” it said. The rise in interest rates could work through multiple channels such as a weakening in credit quality, particularly since most lending is based on floating rates and mark-to-market impact on securities, it added. “There could also be a contagion due to global financial volatility during the US monetary policy normalisation process. The expected relative tightening in credit conditions and increase in interest rates from record-low levels could lead to a drag on the economic activity,” IIF said.
  • 4. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 4 UAE :DEWA announces Shams Dubai to regulate generation of solar energy in buildings and connection to its grid. WAM + NewBase Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD and CEO of Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, DEWA has announced the start of DEWA’s first smart initiative, Shams Dubai, to regulate the generation of solar energy in buildings and their connection to DEWA’s grid. The move supports the Smart Dubai initiative and the vision of Vice President and Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, to transform Dubai into the smartest city in the world in three years through 100 initiatives and 1,000 smart services that enhance the quality of life in the emirate and achieve its sustainable development. The press conference was attended by Ahmed bin Byat, Member of the Higher Committee to Transform Dubai into a Smart City, Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Smart Dubai Initiative, Dr. Aisha bin Bishr, Assistant Director-General of the Executive Office, Member of the Smart Dubai Executive Committee and Team Leader of the Smart City Taskforce, Ahmed Buti Al Muhairbi, Secretary- General of the Dubai Supreme Council of Energy, Abdul Aziz Abdulla Al Midfa, Chairman of the Middle East Solar Industry Association, senior officials from the Dubai Supreme Council of Energy, DEWA’s Executive Vice Presidents, Vice Presidents, corporate representatives and members of the press. Shams Dubai encourages tenants and building owners to install photovoltaic solar panels to generate electricity. DEWA will connect the system to its network. The electricity will be used onsite and the surplus is exported to DEWA’s grid. This encourages the use of renewable energy, increases its share in electricity production and diversifies the energy mix. "To support the Smart Dubai initiative, launched by His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, to make Dubai the smartest city on earth, and make life easier through the efficient, integrated, seamless and sustainable use of resources, we today have begun the implementation phase of the first smart initiative, Shams Dubai. This is one of the three initiatives we launched last year to significantly improve the services provided to partners and customers, and make Dubai the smartest city in the world during the next three years. This will enable the city’s facilities and services to be managed using smart and connected systems that enhance living standards for all of Dubai’s residents and visitors," said Al Tayer. "Shams Dubai supports the Green Economy for Sustainable Development economic initiative launched by His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, and implements Council
  • 5. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 5 Resolution Number 46 of 2014, issued by H.H. Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai and Chairman of Dubai Executive Council, to enable customers to install photovoltaic panels to generate electricity from solar power in buildings, and connect them to DEWA’s grid. "This smart initiative also supports Dubai Plan 2021 and the Dubai Integrated Energy Strategy 2030, to develop sustainable energy projects in Dubai by increasing the targets for renewable energy in the emirate’s energy mix to 7 percent by 2020 and 15 percent by 2030. "DEWA supports the vision of our wise leadership, which outlines the roadmap for our work and initiatives to enhance the competitiveness of the UAE and Dubai. We are fully-prepared to effectively and positively contribute to building Smart Dubai and add to the happiness of citizens and residents," he added. "Last week, we announced the first project under the first smart initiative, in collaboration with Dubai Airports, to supply Dubai World Central - Al Maktoum International Airport in Jebel Ali with solar energy. The first step in implementing the initiative was installing photovoltaic panels to produce 30kW of electricity there.
  • 6. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 6 Iraq: Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation Farms Into Block 9 Egypt’s national energy firm Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) has signed an agreement to farm into Block 9 in Iraq. Kuwait Energy and Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation on Sunday jointly announced signing of an agreement whereby EGPC has farmed in a 10 percent participating interest in Block 9, which is located in the Iraq's Basra region. With this agreement, EGPC has become a partner with Dragon Oil Holdings Limited and Kuwait Energy, in the Block 9 license, where Kuwait Energy is the operator. Tarek El Molla, EGPC CEO stated: “We are pleased to announce EGPC’s first international investment. The merit of this investment is its contribution to building an economic relationship between Iraq and Egypt.” The Exploration, Development & Production Service Contract (EDPSC) pertaining to Block 9 was signed in January 2013 after the award in 2012.
  • 7. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 7 Iraq: Oil majors companies offer to cut 2015 spending Reuters + NewBase Oil companies have proposed millions of dollars of cuts in development spending in Iraq, a senior oil ministry official said, after Baghdad told them low oil prices and its fight against Islamic State had made payments difficult. In a series of letters sent to companies such as Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Exxon Mobil since January, seen by Reuters , the oil ministry set out the need for change in response to "the rapid drastic decrease in crude oil prices." The slump in crude prices to below $60 a barrel from $115 in June has slashed government revenues in Iraq, OPEC's second biggest exporter, just as it faces economic crisis triggered by Islamic State's seizure of north and western provinces and surging expenditure to fund a military counter-offensive. In view of the fact that a significant proportion of development costs are passed on to Iraq, the oil ministry called on firms to revise their oilfield development plans by considering postponing new projects and delaying already committed projects as long as no additional costs were incurred. They should cut development budgets "by a certain percentage" and request subcontractors to reduce costs in order to match "the new oil prices world," the ministry said. Those cuts should be made against a backdrop of maintaining or even increasing current oil production levels, the February letter added, requesting a response by the end of that month. Most companies have replied, a senior oil ministry official said, with the largest offered cut in
  • 8. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 8 spending coming from Shell, which proposed slashing investment spending this year by more than a third to $1.5 billion from $2.4 billion. BP proposed a cut to $3.25 billion from $3.50 billion, Lukoil to $2.1 billion from $2.3 billion, while Exxon Mobil said it planned to maintain development spending at $1.8 billion and Eni had yet to reply, he said. "No direct meetings have been held with any of the foreign companies. We are now only testing waters with them via correspondence," said the official, who declined to be named because of the confidential nature of the correspondence. A BP spokesman said the company held regular, confidential discussions with Baghdad about the development of the Rumaila field, which was operating normally. A spokesman for Lukoil said the firm had received a letter from Iraq asking to postpone all new developments or reduce works in 2015, adding: "We are studying it." The West Qurna project was developing on schedule and unchanged so far. Exxon, the lead contractor to rehabilitate West Qurna, declined to comment. Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson said last week it was talking with Baghdad on restructuring oil agreements to help the government meet its near term cash needs. Eni and Shell were not immediately available for comment. SHARING RISKS International firms operate in Iraq's southern oilfields under service contracts, currently based on a fixed dollar fee for additional volumes produced - a formula which has seen Baghdad's bills ballooning just as its oil revenues collapse. "The oil ministry has irreversibly taken the decision to amend its service contracts with foreign firms, due to the cash crisis brought by oil prices drop," the ministry official said. "We have to acknowledge that current contracts were hastily drafted and short-sighted in failing to take into consideration the impact of a potential oil price crash." A letter sent to oil firms last month asked them to propose amendments to their contracts "based on the linkage between oil prices and cost recovery and due remuneration as a sliding scale," so that both sides "take the risk and enjoy the reward." The proposed amendment did not mean Baghdad was planning a formal move to production sharing contracts, but finding a middle ground between that and the current arrangements. "We should fix these flaws to save our economy from collapsing," the official said. A source at one of the oil majors said such discussions were not unusual: "For the past five years we had cost inflation in the industry as oil prices rose. Now we have cost deflation as prices fall. We renegotiate contracts with service and engineering companies all over the world to achieve lower costs without impacting production."
  • 9. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 9 Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mehdi said 10 days ago that Iraq was renegotiating the contracts with a view to restoring Iraq's state share to around 20 to 25 percent, after it was reduced in recent amendments to around 5 percent. He said that under current contract terms, Iraq's payments due to international companies in 2015 would reach $18 billion. It has already accumulated debts from last year and 2013. The government says it has started work on issuing a Treasury bond, and may resort to seeking forward payment for exports to address its growing debts to the firms, Finance Minister Hoshiyar Zebari said. For now, sources say, Iraq is not providing the service companies with the repayment volumes they are due and is instead sometimes assigning more cargoes to companies who purchase its crude for cash under term contracts in monthly export schedules.
  • 10. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 10 China’s plan to grow cleaner, but economical difficulties a head The National + NewBase Even as research done for the Wall Street Journal suggested that air quality in Beijing improved slightly last year, Chinese authorities were so disturbed by a TV documentary on pollution in the country that they removed it from websites. Nevertheless, carbon dioxide emissions dropped last year, a remarkable feat for this coal- dependent nation. Slowing energy demand is good news for the environment, but not so much for those countries who have founded their economic success on supplying China with raw materials. The Middle Kingdom’s voracious appetite has upturned global energy markets over the past decade. It accounted for nearly half of oil demand growth from 2000 to 2013. Since the early 1990s, its coal consumption rose by more than threefold, oil consumption quadrupled and gas use grew by more than a factor of 10. Chinese oil executives turned up first in Khartoum and Astana, then Houston, Calgary and Moscow, to strike deals. Prices for oil, gas, coal and a host of other commodities – copper, aluminium, wheat – reached record highs in 2008. But now Chinese energy demand faces two headwinds – the economy will grow more slowly, and that growth will be less energy-intensive. Commodity producers need to take warning. The sharp fall in oil prices last summer has introduced a world where resources are more abundant than demand. If China is to continue its dramatic ascent of the past three decades, it faces some daunting challenges: to transform its political system and sources of popular legitimacy; rebalance its economy from heavy industry towards knowledge and services; meet its still-growing energy needs in a more diverse and secure way; and clean up its clouded skies and waters. All these endeavours will weigh heavily on energy demand. We might discount the possibility of the fall of the country’s Communist party and a period of political upheaval, raised by the United States academic David Shambaugh in a recent Wall Street Journal article. An economic crisis triggered by a build-up of bad debt and overinvestment has been repeatedly predicted, but so far avoided. The economy, however, has already shifted on to a slower track – after regularly
  • 11. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 11 recording double-digit growth up to the financial crisis, expansion from now on is more likely to be about 7 per cent or less annually. The president Xi Jinping’s new growth strategy advocates a shift away from infrastructure and heavy industry towards higher value-added manufacturing and services. The government has already acted to reduce overcapacity in steel making, cement and coal mining, with coal consumption planned to be capped by 2020 just 10.5 per cent above today’s level. Energy efficiency is being stepped up, with car mileage standards more stringent than that of the US, and higher taxes on fuel use. Less coal use means less diesel consumed to haul it around the country. Natural gas, renewables and nuclear power are slowing the growth of coal-fired power. Might other countries take up the slack? India, now the fastest-growing large economy, is the obvious candidate. But its oil consumption is now only where China’s was in 1996. For a host of reasons – a more open political system, less industrialised economy, and higher population density – it seems unlikely that India will record the relentless economic and energy demand growth that China did. Africa, which uses about as much oil as India, is even further behind in the phase of resource- intensive industrialisation, and with growth very unevenly distributed. Slower growth in China’s use of resources is bad news for miners of coal and iron in Australia, Indonesia and Brazil, and oil producers in the Middle East, Russia, the Caspian Sea area and Venezuela. Of course China will continue to be a major – probably the major – influence on world oil demand. But it will no longer be the global energy consumer of last resort. Indeed, there no longer is such a consumer.
  • 12. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 12 Oil Price Drop Special Coverage Oil prices drop again and countries build up inventories Oil prices look set to remain under pressure as supply chugs along while inventories in major economies continue their relentless rise. The steepest decline so far this year was registered in the past week, with world benchmark North Sea Brent crude falling by more than 4 per cent on Friday alone to end at US$54.67 per barrel, reversing some of the gains of nearly 20 per cent made during the recovery in January and February, when Brent pushed above $60. Yesterday, Ibrahim Al Muhanna, a former spokesman for Ali Al Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, and still an adviser to the ministry, offered some soothing words about the outlook for oil prices. Speaking in Doha, Qatar, he said that “demand is and will be stronger” and suggested that “Saudi Arabia has never been in a price war with anyone”. That is not the perception of the market, however. Just over a week ago, Mohsen Qamsari, the head of international affairs at the National Iranian Oil Company, said that “the Islamic Republic is set to inject more oil into the world market in an attempt to raise market share”, according to Iran’s state Fars News Agency. Saudi Arabia and Iran – and other suppliers from the Arabian Gulf – have been competing fiercely for market share and lowering their prices for Chinese, Indian and other major customers in Asia, since last summer. Last month, Irna, another official Iranian news agency, quoted Seyyid Muhsin Kemseri, Iranian National Petrol Company international relations director, as saying of Saudi Arabia’s deep discounting for Asian customers: “There is extremely fierce competition in the market and if we were in Saudi Arabia’s shoes, we would have done the same”. In its latest monthly market report on Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the rich countries’ main energy think tank, warned: “Behind the facade of stability, the rebalancing triggered by the price collapse has yet to run its course, and it might be overly optimistic to expect it to proceed smoothly”.
  • 13. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 13 Demand has recovered over the past year but has been outstripped by supply, the IEA reported. Global supply in February was an estimated 94 million barrels per day, up 1.3 million bpd year on year, with almost all the extra supply coming from North America. Declines in the number of oil rigs operated in the US “have yet to dent North American output growth”, according to the IEA, which added that the sector’s resilience even in the face of lower oil prices meant it would be raising its forecast for North American output for this year. Higher output from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Angola offset some losses from troubled Libya and Iraq, which meant that overall output from Opec was little changed last month at just more than 30 million bpd. The IEA said that oil refineries are starting to increase their run rates after a period of maintenance, which should help to slow the rate of inventory building over the next few weeks. But it added that “stocks may soon test storage capacity limits [and] that would inevitably lead to renewed price weakness, which in turn could trigger the supply cuts that have so far remained elusive”. The think tank does not expect relief any time soon from demand, concluding: “There are still few firm signs at this stage that lower prices are giving the economy a real boost”. Oil Falls to 6-Year Low as Dollar Holds Gain; China Shares Rally Bloomberg + NewBase Oil touched its lowest level since 2009 amid increased projections for U.S. production, while the dollar weakened from its strongest level in more than a decade before this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Chinese shares rose as the government vowed to support economic expansion. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 1.1 percent to $44.37 a barrel by 12:43 p.m. in Tokyo, after earlier falling to as low as $43.57. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.2 percent as the greenback weakened 0.3 percent to $1.0525 per euro. The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 1.8 percent after China’s Premier Li Keqiang pledged to take action if slowing growth threatens job creation or wages. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed. U.S. oil dropped 9.6 percent last week and speculators cut bullish wagers to the lowest in more than two years as falling rig counts fail to cool a supply glut. The Fed may remove the word “patient” from its statement this week, giving it more flexibility on the timing of interest-rate increases as U.S. monetary policy diverges from efforts by European and Asia-Pacific policy makers to shore up growth.
  • 14. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 14 “Crude has performed even worse with the strong dollar as it’s been having its own demand and supply issues,” said Hong Sung Ki, a commodities analyst at Samsung Futures Inc. in Seoul. “We are seeing diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, especially the ECB. Investors are curious whether the Fed will raise rates in June.” Brent Slide West Texas Intermediate crude lost 4.7 percent on Friday, and capped a fourth straight weekly retreat. Brent, the benchmark contract for more than half of global oil, fell 0.8 percent to $54.26 per barrel following Friday’s 4.2 percent retreat. The U.S. surplus may soon strain the country’s storage capacity, renewing the slump in oil prices, the International Energy Agency said Friday. U.S. production will expand this year by about 750,000 barrels a day to 12.56 million a day, the IEA said. Hedge funds and other money managers reduced their net-long position in WTI by 2.5 percent in the seven days ended March 10, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. A gauge of energy producers dropped the most among the 10 industries on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. South Korea’s S-Oil Corp. tumbled 4.1 percent and Japan’s Inpex Corp. retreated 4 percent. Santos Ltd., Australia’s No. 3 producer, fell 2.1 percent while BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest miner, decreased 1.3 percent for a 10th straight drop, the longest losing streak since 1998. Dollar, Won Anger over alleged bribes and kickbacks at Brazil’s state-run oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA brought more than 1 million people to the streets Sunday demanding President Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment. The Next Funds Ibovespa Linked Exchange Traded Fund, which tracks Brazilian shares, dropped 1.2 percent in Tokyo. The Bloomberg dollar gauge, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, climbed 0.8 percent on Friday to its highest level in data going back to the end of 2004. The euro is heading for its biggest ever quarterly loss versus the dollar after the region’s central bank took deposit rates below zero and began buying bonds as tries to stave off deflation. The dollar touched $1.0458 to the euro today, the strongest versus the joint currency since January 2003. The won slipped a sixth day, losing 0.6 percent to 1,134.96 per dollar and touching its weakest level since July 2013. Korea’s currency retreated 2.7 percent last week, the most since 2011, as the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. Malaysia’s ringgit dropped 0.6 percent to 3.7058 a dollar.
  • 15. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 15 Aussie Bears The Australian dollar added 0.1 percent to 76.43 U.S. cents, after sliding 0.9 percent on Friday. Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March 3 meeting, when the key rate was held at 2.25 percent after a cut in February, are due Tuesday. Investors raised their bearish bets on the Australian dollar to a record as BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest money manager, expects the currency to plunge to levels well below what the RBA prefers. Traders wager there’s a 50 percent change the RBA will reduce borrowing costs again within six months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from swap contracts. Policy makers will take action if China’s growth, which the government targeted at about 7 percent this year, drifts toward the lower limit of its range and cuts into employment or wages, Premier Li told reporters. While stripping the government of some of its role in the world’s second-largest economy may face resistance from vested interests, it is crucial, he said. The Shanghai Composite, the world’s best-performing benchmark stock gauge last year, is up 6 percent this year and is heading for a fourth straight advance. The number of new mainland stock accounts surged in the two weeks through March 6. A gauge of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong advanced 0.6 percent and the Hang Seng Index increased 0.4 percent. U.S. Seeks More Crude for Strategic Reserve After 2014 Sale Bloomberg + NewBase The U.S. government wants to buy up to 5 million barrels of crude to store in its strategic reserve on the Gulf Coast. The Energy Department wants the crude delivered to its Bryan Mound storage cavern near Freeport, Texas, in June or July, according to a pre-solicitation notice posted on federal websites today. The purchase follows a 5 million-barrel test sale last spring, when oil prices were nearly double what they are now. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve purchase comes as booming shale oil production has pushed private oil inventories in the U.S. to 449 million barrels, the most in records dating back to 1982. The reserve has 691 million barrels and 36 million barrels of empty space. “Commercial storage is filling up,” said David Hackett, president of Stillwater Associates, an energy consulting firm in Irvine, California. “If they buy domestic oil and put it in the SPR, that creates 5 million more barrels of space in commercial storage.” The law requires the Energy Department to use the funds from last year’s test sale to purchase replacement crude, Robert Dillon, spokesman for Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, said in an e-mail.
  • 16. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 16 The government plans to officially post its tender offer on its websites about March 23, according to the notice. Peak Inventory The purchase will be the first for the reserve since it reached its peak inventory level of about 727 million barrels in December 2009. It released 31 million barrels in 2011 to help offset supply disruptions caused by upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa, and exchanged 1 million with Marathon Petroleum Corp. after Hurricane Isaac blocked tankers from delivering crude to the company’s Garyville refinery in Louisiana. The SPR, which was created in the 1970s in response to the Arab oil embargo, has four underground storage caverns in Texas and Louisiana. The Bryan Mound site has 241 million barrels in storage now. When the reserve finished filling in 2009, it held the equivalent of 80 days worth of crude imports to the U.S. Booming domestic oil production from shale wells has cut inbound shipments since then, and the reserve now holds 94 days of imports based on 2014 data. “This is all happening at the same time that a debate is going on about whether we really need 700 million barrels in the SPR given the increase in production in the U.S., so it is surprising,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston.
  • 17. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 17 IEA Sees China, India Filling Strategic Reserves With Cheap Oil Bloomberg + NewBase China and India are set to fill up their strategic petroleum reserves this year, taking advantage of lower oil prices, according to the International Energy Agency. The two nations are building emergency stockpiles with millions of barrels of crude that mirror the reserves of oil and refined products that the U.S. and its western allies amassed after the first oil crisis of 1973 to 1974. “Cheaper oil facilitates the building of strategic reserves,” the Paris-based IEA said on Friday in its monthly oil market report. The purchases, if confirmed, will add to global oil consumption growth, the IEA said, offsetting “current weak fundamentals” of supply and demand and potentially boosting prices. Brent crude, a global oil benchmark, has fallen 47 percent over the past year to trade at $57.03 a barrel at 8:53 a.m. in London. “Since oil prices began their rapid retreat last June, the import bills of oil-importing economies have declined,” the IEA said. “This has assisted governments in many of these countries in either adding to their strategic reserves or putting in place firm budgetary provisions to increase oil holdings.” The energy watchdog said China was “expected to again stockpile crude in 2015” as it completes new tanking capacity. Beijing in November for the first time revealed details of its oil stockpiling program, saying it held about 91 million barrels in four different locations. The U.S. holds 696 millions barrels of oil in its emergency reserve, the largest in the world. Indian Storage India has yet to start storing crude oil, but the IEA said the government has approved a $338 million budget to cover the filling of its first emergency tanks this year. At current prices, that would amount to 6.5 million to 7 million barrels of crude. The Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd., the company in charge of the stockpile, has already built a tank farm in eastern India capable of holding 10 million barrels of crude. Another two facilities in western India are expected to be completed by the end of the year, adding a combined 28 million barrels of capacity. The IEA, adviser to 29 oil-consuming nations, said Vietnam has also used lower oil prices to boost its commercial stockpiles held at refineries. China and India have said in the past they need to build strategic reserves to offset the risk of a disruption in supplies, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa. Western countries have used their strategic reserves only three times over the past 35 years, during the first Gulf War in Iraq in 1991, after hurricane Katrina in 2005 and in 2011, after the start of the war in Libya.
  • 18. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 18 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile : +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years , he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 16 March 2015 K. Al Awadi
  • 19. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 19
  • 20. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 20