NewBase 26 January 2024 Energy News issue - 1702 by Khaled Al Awadi_compressed.pdf

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NewBase Energy News 26 February 2024 No. 1702 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Qatar to Build New LNG Project as US Stalls on Export Push
Bloomberg + NewBase
Qatar plans to expand exports of liquefied natural gas amid rising demand and a pause on growth
projects in the US, a key rival supplier.
The nation, which vies with the US and Australia as the biggest shipper of the fuel, will develop a
new 16 million tons a year project before the end of this decade, lifting annual production capacity
to 142 million tons by 2030, the country’s Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi said Sunday.
The expansion opens the way for the Middle Eastern country to secure a dominant long-term role
in global exports.
It has already signed a succession of deals to sell supply from its current expansion to 126 million
tons, including a 27-year pact with China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. and with European
companies such as Eni SpA, TotalEnergies SE and Shell Plc. Demand for LNG is forecast to rise
more than 50% by 2040, driven by rising consumption in Asia, according to Shell.
The expansion follows the discovery of 250 trillion cubic feet of new gas deposits in the North Field,
taking overall reserves to about 2,000 trillion, Al-Kaabi said. The country is still appraising new wells
in the field and will produce more if there are additional gas finds, he said.
Qatar hasn’t yet decided if it will bring in partners for the new project, Al-Kaabi said.
ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/

US Pause
The US imposed a temporary halt on new LNG export licenses in January while it studies the impact
of higher shipments on climate change, the economy and national security. A pause on approvals
could last as long as 14 months, according to White House energy adviser Amos Hochstein.
The American pause comes as producers and other advocates insist natural gas is a lower-
emissions alternative to coal or oil and can complement rising adoption of renewable sources. Al-
Kaabi expects a global shortage of gas despite new projects.
“The only thing that would stop us announcing more projects is if we don’t believe there is a market
for gas,” he said.
Most of that demand is likely to come from Asia, with Europe also continuing to use gas for a long
time even though the pace of growth will be slower, Al-Kaabi said.

Europe's Carmakers squeeze suppliers on costs Facing Chinese EV
Reuters + NewBase
Europe's automakers and their already-stretched suppliers face a tough year as they race to cut
costs for electric models to counter leaner Chinese rivals which are bringing cheaper vehicles to
challenge them on their home turf.
A big question is how much more Europe's automakers can squeeze out of suppliers that have
already started laying off workers, with many smaller companies hard hit by supply chain issues
during the pandemic.
Models pose next to Chinese automobile manufacturer BYD's BYD SEAL during the Japan
Mobility Show 2023 at Tokyo Big Sight in Tokyo, Japan,
The difference between Europe's legacy automakers and more EV-focused Chinese manufacturers
will be on stark display this week at the Geneva car show, which is returning after a four-year hiatus
due to the pandemic.
The only major companies holding media events are France's Renault (RENA.PA), opens new tab,
and China's SAIC (600104.SS), opens new tab and BYD (002594.SZ), opens new tab - two of a
number of the country's automakers that have set their sights on Europe.
Renault is launching its electric R5 and SAIC's MG brand will unveil its M3 hybrid. Meanwhile, BYD's
Seal sedan is shortlisted for the Car of the Year award. If it wins, it would be the first Chinese model
to get the prestigious award.

"They really are like chalk and cheese," Nick Parker, a partner and managing director at consulting
firm AlixPartners, said of the legacy European automakers and their Chinese rivals.
Unlike European automakers that are reliant on external suppliers with separate supply chains for
fossil-fuel and electric, their Chinese rivals are highly vertically integrated, producing almost
everything in-house and keeping costs down.
That helps them undercut their European rivals. In Britain, BYD's electric Dolphin hatchback starts
at 25,490 pounds ($32,300), about 27% less than Volkswagen's (VOWG_p.DE), opens new
tab equivalent ID.3 model. Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab works in the same way.
Chasing those rivals means European automakers' profit margins could be "heavily challenged"
moving forward because there is only so much they can squeeze out of external suppliers,
AlixPartners' Parker said.
The challenge has been made more difficult by a slower-than-expected shift to EVs, leaving legacy
automakers stuck with their dual supply chains. Data this week showed EU fully-electric car sales
in January fell 42.3% from December.
Both Renault and Stellantis have stressed their EV cost-cutting efforts this month while
Mercedes (MBGn.DE), opens new tab toned down expectations for EV demand and said it will
update its traditional lineup well into the next decade.
Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares has gone further, telling suppliers that with 85% of EV costs related
to purchased materials, they need to bear a proportionate burden in reducing costs.

"I am translating that reality to my partners: If you don’t do your part of the job, then you exclude
yourself," he said.
Nickel and aluminium prices have also risen this week as Western countries expanded sanctions
lists against Moscow, highlighting the lingering risks to raw materials prices even though there was
no mention of the two metals.
JOB CUTS
Many legacy suppliers are already feeling the strain of cost cuts with Forvia (FRVIA.PA), opens new
tab, Continental (CONG.DE), opens new tab and Bosch all recently announcing or warning of
layoffs, with more expected.
To preserve their profits, automakers focused production on higher-margin models during the recent
semi-conductor shortage, but that meant less revenue and less upside for their suppliers.
Now industry experts say well-capitalised larger suppliers can adapt to the new reality but warn that
plenty of smaller ones are teetering on the edge, like Germany's Allgaier which filed for insolvency
in July.
That means Europe's automakers face a delicate balancing act between cutting costs to fend off
Chinese rivals and avoiding pushing their suppliers too far. Philip Nothard, insight director at dealer
services firm Cox Automotive, says automakers may even have to step in to bailout struggling
suppliers.
"The risk is if (European automakers) try and screw those suppliers down too much, they'll either
push them into administration or they'll push them into seeking different markets," he said.

Aramco announces big Gas & condensate find in Saudi Arabia
TradeArabia News Service
Saudi oil giant Aramco has announced that there has been a major jump in the volume of proven
reserves of gas and condensate in its Jafurah unconventional field which has soared to 15 trillion
standard cu ft of gas and two billion barrels of condensate.
With this find, the resources at Jafurah are now estimated at 229 trillion standard cu ft of gas and
75 billion barrels of condensates, reported SPA citing the energy minister.
This landmark achievement is a result of Aramco's dedication and applying of the highest
international standards in estimating and developing hydrocarbon resources," said Prince Abdulaziz
bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, Minister of
Energy.
Jafurah is the kingdom's largest
unconventional non-oil associated
gas field and it is potentially the
biggest shale gas development
outside of the US.
In 2020, the Jafurah field was
estimated to require investments of
$110 billion.-

Egypt: Dragon Oil signs marketing agreement with EGPC
WAM
Dragon Oil Company, wholly owned by the Government of Dubai, signed a commercial marketing
agreement with the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) , for quantities of production
from the North Safa and Al-Wasl fields in the Gulf of Suez to export their shares of the additional
crude oil produced from the two fields, which represents one of the components of the Gulf of Suez
mixture. For the first time, the two sides are in the global market together, reported WAM.
This comes after the successful start of production from the two fields, with an additional average
production expected to reach 10 thousand barrels per day during the coming period, which will
achieve many economic interests for both parties and enhance the value and presence of Egyptian
crude in the global market.
It also comes within the framework of the company’s keenness to strengthen its presence in the
Egyptian market to increase investments, raise production rates, and cooperate to face the global
challenges and changes.
Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Dragon Oil Company, said, “The
commercial marketing agreement signed at EGYPS 2024 is the result of the fruitful partnership
between Dragon Oil Company and the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, and it is also an
introduction to the upcoming investment projects that benefit both countries.”
Al Tayer added, “EGYPS 2024 is a global platform that enables us, through our permanent
participation, to enhance communication with various partners and exchange opinions with our
counterparts from other companies about the reality of the global market and about the latest

developments in the world of the oil industry, especially in terms of implementing the outcomes of
the COP28 Conference of the Parties related to the removal of carbon from the oil and gas industry
to reduce carbon emissions and achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 2030."
Engineer Ali Rashid Al-Jarwan, CEO of Dragon Oil, signed the agreement on the Emirati side, while
Alaa Al-Batal, CEO of the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, signed on the Egyptian side.
The second day of Dragon Oil's participation in the EGYPS 2024 exhibition was full of activities,
meetings, and bilateral discussions that dealt with the realities of the oil industry, prices, and the
hydrogen industry.
The various meetings
demonstrated the high position
that Dragon Oil now enjoys in
the regional and global oil
markets. The meetings were
also an opportunity to present
projects. Different companies
are especially interested in
sustainable development.
In the same context, Saeed Al
Tayer met with Hayyan Abdul
Ghani, Iraq’s Deputy Prime
Minister for Energy Affairs and
Minister of Oil, and his
accompanying delegation, and
they reviewed the company’s
projects in Iraq and ways to
develop them and enhance
Dragon Oil’s presence in the
Iraqi oil market in a way that
serves both parties.
In continuation of the
company’s activity in the
Republic of Egypt, Saeed Al
Tayer, along with Engineer
Tariq Al Mulla, Egyptian
Minister of Petroleum and
Mineral Resources, inaugurated
the CSR Charity Exhibition,
supported by Dragon Oil
Company, in the presence of a
large number of officials from both parties.
The Government of Dubai wholly owns Dragon Oil-Egypt, one of Egypt's pioneering joint companies
in petroleum production. The company focuses on the field of research, exploration, and petroleum
production in the Gulf of Suez, with comprehensive and sustainable implementation strategies,
ambitious plans, training programmes, and programmes for continuous development to reach the
desired goals according to a vision capable of meeting the company’s aspirations for its activities in
Egypt.

Libya Protests Halt Wafa Oil Exports, Gas Pipeline to Italy
Bloomberg - Hatem Mohareb
Exports from an oil field in western Libya and a subsea natural gas link to Italy were closed following
protests, according to a person familiar with the matter, the latest disruptions to the North African
country’s energy infrastructure.
The Wafa field’s output of 40,000 to 45,000 barrels a day won’t reach the port of Mellitah for exports
after a valve was closed on Sunday, the person said, asking not to be named because the
information isn’t public. The oil is being stored at the field’s site, where tanks can hold about seven
days of production, they said.
The pipeline to Italy carries about 200 million cubic meters of gas per day, or about 20% of the total
output of the fuel of Mellitah Oil & Gas Co., according to the person.
Protesters shut the Mellitah complex earlier Sunday in a dispute primarily over wages, according to
a spokesman for the demonstrators. The group said it also closed access to the El Feel field and
Al-Zawiya refinery, where production is still underway.
If the protests continue, these projects could fully halt and result in a force majeure, a clause in
contracts allowing deliveries to be suspended, according to a letter to the government signed by a
board member of the state-run National Oil Corp., seen by Bloomberg.
Protests have regularly disrupted output in Libya, including a force majeure last month at the biggest
oil field, Sharara.

NewBase February 26 -2024 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil extends losses after dollar strengthens on interest rate outlook
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices fell on Monday, extending losses from the previous session after the dollar rose amid
market concerns that higher-than-expected inflation could delay cuts to high U.S. interest rates that
have been capping global fuel demand growth.
Brent crude futures fell 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $81.27 a barrel by 0419 GMT, while U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude futures (WTI) declined 35 cents, or 0.5%, to $76.14 a barrel as the U.S.
dollar (.DXY), opens new tab strengthened. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders
of other currencies.
The dip built on losses last week, when Brent declined about 2% and WTI fell more than 3% on
indications that U.S. interest rate cuts could be delayed by two months due to an uptick in inflation.
"The risk-on sentiment seems to be in a retreat after the Nvidia-led market rally last week as higher-
for-longer rate expectations lifted the U.S. dollar, pressuring commodity prices," Auckland-based
independent analyst Tina Teng said.
Oil price special
coverage

Oil prices have been trading between $70 and $90 a barrel since November, as rising supply in the
U.S. and concerns of weak demand in China offset OPEC+ supply cuts despite two wars raging.
"Crude oil prices declined for want of fresh drivers," ANZ analysts wrote in a note. "Oil has been
caught between bullish factors such as lower OPEC output and elevated geopolitical risks and
bearish concerns about weak demand in China."
The geopolitical risk premium from Yemeni Houthis' attacks on ships in the Red Sea remained
modest at only a $2 a barrel boost to Brent, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
However, the bank has raised its summer peak price to $87 a barrel, up from $85, as Red Sea
disruptions have driven larger-than-expected draws in stocks held by countries that are members
of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Goldman Sachs still expects oil demand to grow by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 but has
cut China's forecast while raising that for the U.S. and India.
"Robust non-OPEC supply growth is likely to nearly keep pace with solid global demand growth,"
the analysts added.
As the Israel-Hamas conflict continues in the Middle East, White House national security adviser
Jake Sullivan told CNN on Sunday that negotiators for the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Israel
had agreed on the basic contours of a hostage deal during talks in Paris but are still in negotiations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was not clear yet whether a deal would
materialise.
Adding to global energy supplies, Qatar will further raise liquefied natural gas production despite a
recent steep drop in global prices.
In the U.S., the ANZ analysts anticipated oil stockpiles could start to fall in the coming weeks as
refineries return from maintenance, which could offer some support to prices.

NewBase Specual Coverage
The Energy world –February 26 -2024
CLEAN ENERGY
Use of natural gas-fired generation differs in the United
States by technology and region
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electricity Power Monthly
Natural gas is the single-largest source of energy used to generate electricity in the United States,
making up 43% of electricity generation in 2023. Natural gas-fired power plants accounted for the
second-most U.S. generating capacity additions in 2023, trailing only solar.
Combined with increasing domestic supply and relatively low natural gas prices, the versatility of
natural gas-fired power plants to meet a wide range of requirements across many U.S. markets is
one of the main reasons for their growth.
However, the dispatchability, efficiency, and broad regional coverage of natural gas-fired power
plants vary significantly. In addition, decades of advancements in natural gas turbine efficiency
mean that the age of natural gas-fired plants affects how those plants are used.
Natural gas-fired generation is versatile to dispatch
Nearly all natural gas-fired power plants are dispatchable, meaning that they can reliably be called
on to meet power demand when needed by the grid. The flexibility of natural gas-fired generation is
supported by the four different technology types used in these plants: -
 combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT), simple-cycle gas turbines (SCGT),
 steam turbines (ST), and internal combustion engines (ICE).

In addition to the type of equipment, plant configurations and operating approaches differ among
the technology types. In 2022, CCGT plants made up the largest part of the natural gas fleet,
followed by SCGT, ST, and ICE.
Note: ST=steam turbine; CCGT=combined-cycle gas turbine; SCGT=simple-cycle gas turbine;
ICE=internal combustion engine
CCGT plants are highly efficient, which allows them to generate low-cost power over extended
periods, and they are configured to provide power to serve base and intermediate load. The three
other plant types (SCGT, ST, and ICE) are used mostly to meet peak demand on the electric grid
and so run less frequently.
These three sources can start and ramp up to full power quickly, which is critical in markets with an
increasing concentration of intermittent renewable generation.
In 2023, operators added 9,274 megawatts (MW) of new natural gas turbine generating capacity to
the power grid in the United States. This total consisted of 7,376 MW of capacity from CCGT plants,
1,756 MW from SCGT plants, and 142 MW from ICE plants. No capacity from ST was added in
2023.
Natural gas consumption varies by plant type
The different types of natural gas-fired power plants technologies lead the plants themselves to
have different operating rates, or capacity factors, among the technologies. A capacity factor is the
ratio between the amount of generation over a period of time and the generating capability of a
power plant.
CCGT plants, with higher efficiency, typically run more than half of the time and had a fleetwide
capacity factor of approximately 56% in 2022. Depending on the age and type of equipment of the
plant, capacity factors among the CCGT fleet can vary.

The newest CCGT plants (those that entered service between 2014 and the end of 2023 and are
using the latest generation of natural gas turbines) recorded the highest average capacity factor in
2022, approximately 66%.
CCGT plants that started operating between 1999 and 2013 with an earlier natural gas turbine
model reported a slightly lower average capacity factor, about 57%, in 2022. Average capacity
factors were lowest, about 36%, for the earliest group of CCGT plants, which began operating in
the 1980s and up until 1998.
SCGT, ST, and ICE natural gas-fired generating facilities all had average capacity factors below
20% in 2022 because they usually are only called on to operate when power demand is at its highest
or when intermittent renewable energy sources need backup. SCGT plants had an average capacity
factor of approximately 13% in 2022, ST plants of about 16%, and ICE plants of 18%.

The efficiency of power plants is measured by a ratio of fuel consumed to output in kilowatthours,
referred to as a heat rate. A low heat rate means that a facility is using less fuel to produce the same
amount of electricity as other facilities with the same type of turbines.
The most modern and efficient CCGT plants, those entering service sometime between 2014 and
2023, typically have heat rates less than 7,000 British thermal units per kilowatthour (Btu/kWh).
Older facilities that opened between 1999 and 2013 average around 7,500 Btu/kWh. In contrast,
SCGT and ST natural gas-fired plants typically have heat rates greater than 10,000 Btu/kWh, or at
least one-third higher than a CCGT facility.
Heat rates are an important measure of fuel requirements by the natural gas-fired generating fleet.
For example, the most modern CCGT plants generated approximately 16% of all electric power
from natural gas-fired plants in 2022 while consuming only about 14% of total energy use.
In contrast, the SCGT fleet consumed nearly the same amount of fuel as CCGTs in 2022 but
accounted for about 9.0% of total natural gas-fired generation. Differences in heat rates, especially
when natural gas prices are elevated, can greatly affect the economics of generation using natural
gas.
Capacity factors and efficiency ratings are good predictors of which plant type may be added or
retired from the natural gas-fired generating fleet. As the natural gas-fired power fleet becomes
more efficient in the future, steam boiler plants and older SCGT facilities using natural gas will be
retired, and more CCGT plants using the latest natural gas turbine technology will be added.
Natural gas-fired generation has broad national coverage
All 11 major electricity regions in the United States rely on natural gas to meet a significant share of
their power load. Regions with the largest concentration of natural gas-fired power plants are in the
eastern half of the United States, where natural gas production has increased alongside developing
shale and tight resources.
Natural gas production growth from the Marcellus shale region has boosted natural gas generation
in PJM, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), and parts of SERC. Natural gas-
fired capacity in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) also has been affected by
increased natural gas production in that state.

Based on 2022 data from our Electric Power Annual, regions with the highest capacity factors for
CCGT plants are in the eastern half of the United States. SERC, PJM, FRCC, and MISO all recorded
capacity factors for their respective CCGT fleets at or greater than the national average of 56%.
CCGT plants in the SERC and PJM regions, which are newer and more efficient on average, were
operating more than 60% of the time during 2022. PJM and FRCC are home to some of the most
modern and highest efficiency natural gas turbines in the United States.
In contrast, average capacity factors for CCGT plants in four regions—the Independent System
Operator-New England (ISO-NE), SPP, the Southwest, and the California Independent System
Operator (CAISO)—all were less than 50% during 2022.
Capacity factors in ISO-NE and SPP were especially low at 41% in 2022, and in CAISO, they were
about 47%. The lower percentages mostly were due to more generation from wind and solar sources
in SPP and CAISO and constrained winter natural gas supply in ISO-NE.
Capacity factors for SCGT plants regionally were different than that for the CCGT fleet. The SCGT
fleet in five regions (ERCOT, the New York Independent System Operator, ISO-NE, MISO, and the
Northwest) had average capacity factors greater than the national average of 13% in 2022.
Of special note, the SCGT fleet in ERCOT had an average capacity factor of approximately 27% in
2022. This extremely high rate was due to ERCOT's record-high demand for electricity during both
the summer and winter, as well as intermittent operation from the region’s large wind turbine fleet.
Six regions that had lower peak demand on an hourly basis in 2022 relied less on SCGT output
than the national average. These regions were SPP, CAISO, SERC, PJM, FRCC, and the
Southwest.
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Annual
Note: CCGT=combined-cycle gas turbine; SCGT=simple-cycle gas turbine

NewBase Energy News 25-February - Issue No. 1701 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscriptions, please email us.
About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the
GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of
the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant,
advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks,
waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection
and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas
compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes.
Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation &
maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities.
Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has
participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and
panelist.
Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over
1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable
energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the

world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program
broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see
contact details above.

NewBase 26 January 2024 Energy News issue - 1702 by Khaled Al Awadi_compressed.pdf

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