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NewBase 03 January 2016 - Issue No. 760 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE: Dewa opens doors for private investment on renewable energy
The national LeAnne Graves
The floodgates for private investment in Dubai’s renewable energy sector will open this year as
the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) looks to private companies to pick up a tab worth
billions as budgets tighten amid low oil prices.
Dewa announced yesterday it would tender renewable energy projects worth more than Dh27
billion based on an independent power producer (IPP) model. While the utility would increase this
year’s budget to Dh23.6bn, up slightly by more than 3 per cent from last year, Dewa said that
using an IPP system would “leverage public-private partnerships and build new capacity in
renewable energy”.
Saeed Al Tayer, the managing director and chief executive of Dewa, said this year’s budget would
“meet all the requirements of Dewa’s projects”, with 60 per cent going towards operational
spending such as maintenance.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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About 37 per cent of the budget would go towards capital expenditure and projects.
“The 2016 budget includes a number of key projects including Dh2.9bn in generation, Dh3.4bn in
power transmission, Dh1.2bn in power distribution and Dh1.04bn in water and civil [works] in
addition to other amounts totalling Dh95 million,” Mr Al Tayer said.
While the budget follows a similar breakdown as last year, it is only a minimal increase given that
more projects than ever are planned. The shift to private financing comes as less capital is
available as a result of low oil prices that have persisted for more than a year.
The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, has dropped by about 65 per cent since the
market rout began in June 2014. Although oil sales only make up 4 per cent of Dubai’s revenue,
the emirate depends on the sector for indirect capital.
Dubai established a new public-private partnership (PPP) law that came into effect on November
19 to offset lower revenue, although it excluded the power and water sector as it has separate
legislation.
Dewa will need further support from the private
sector to meet the ambitious renewable energy
targets set forth by the Dubai Supreme Council.
At the end of November, Dubai said that not
only would it have 7 per cent of its energy mix
derive from renewable energy sources, but also
by 2030 that amount would total 25 per cent
and 75 per cent by 2050.
At the beginning of last year, Dewa launched
the five-prong Smart Initiative, with the first
installment, Shams Dubai, looking to equip
residential and commercial buildings with solar panels.
“By setting up the conditions for growth through these key legislative, funding, infrastructure and
skills development mechanisms, Dewa is looking to the market to respond,” said Ridah Sabouni,
the Middle East North Africa
managing director of the US
consultancy Energetics. “It
will take at least a couple of
years to get things going, but
eventually you will see a
robust market develop here.”
Before Shams Dubai, there
lacked incentive for solar
companies to invest a great
deal in the emirate.
“With Shams Dubai coming
into place now, you could see
more solar PV companies come to town or expand their already existing – and perhaps small –
operations,” Mr Sabouni said.
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UAE: Abu Dhabi (ADWEA) hikes water, electricity tariffs, 2016
Gulf News
Five months after the UAE’s Ministry of Energy deregulated fuel prices across the country,
residents in Abu Dhabi can expect even further hikes in their energy bills, with new tariffs for water
and electricity.
The new rates, which come into effect starting this month, aim to encourage residents to
rationalise their energy consumption, and contribute to efforts to sustain natural resources,
according to Abu Dhabi Distribution Company (ADDC).
While the water tariff for expatriates will remain unchanged at Dh5.95 for 1,000 litres, those who
exceed the daily limit of 700 litres in flats and 5,000 litres in villas will be charged Dh10.55 per
1,000 litres. The figure is an increase from the Dh9.9 rate last year.
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The tariff for expatriates living in villas using up to 200 kilowatts of electricity per day will also
remain flat, but those exceeding the limit will be charged 31.8 fils per kilowatt — up from 21 fils in
2015.
Expatriates living in apartments will have a daily limit of 20 kilowatts, and will be charged the same
rates for exceeding the limit.
Falling oil prices
The rise in tariffs in Abu Dhabi comes at a time when various GCC countries are cutting energy
subsidies to counter the effects of falling oil prices that are now at around $37. Last week, Saudi
Arabia announced it would hike petrol and electricity prices after announcing an $87 billion (Dh319
billion) deficit in its 2016 budget.
In the past week, Oman also said it would amend the price of petrol to meet global prices starting
January 15, while Bahrain’s cabinet approved a new pricing system for diesel and kerosene.
Oman: fuel cost increase not exceed 40 baiza per litre,
Gulf News -Fahad Al Mukrashi, Correspondent
Adjusting the prices of Oman’s petroleum products doesn’t mean the deregulation of all fuel
prices. Instead the goals is to bring them in line with global prices, Salim Al Aufi, Undersecretary
of Oil and Gas said on Thursday.
Al Aufi told Al Shabiba daily that the new petrol prices will not exceed 160 baisas (Dh1.52),
compared to the current 120 baisas per litre.
Al Aufi added that there is no reason of that the price of goods in Oman should increase, since the
increase in diesel price will be limited and similar to global prices. Steep increases in diesel prices
are often a major contributor to inflation due to increased shipping costs. Al Aufi said the additional
cost of transporting goods will not exceed 5 to 7 per cent of the total value, which means the effect
will be minimal.
Al Aufi said the Ministry of Oil and Gas conducted a study that showed that the fuel consumption
for each individual doesn’t exceed 20 riyals per month. After adjusting the fuel prices, the increase
will be only 5.5 riyals per person.
Al Aufi added that a committee has been formed to monitor the sale of the petroleum products in
the local market.
The minister’s comments came the day after Oman’s cabinet approved a series of spending cuts
and tax hikes to mitigate with decreased revenues the state in receiving following the drop in oil
prices. In July 2014, oil per barrel was selling at $115, but today’s prices are about $36.
The Cabinet agreed to reduce government spending as well as develop non-oil revenues by
raising taxes on companies’ profits. It will also raise fees on government services and adjusting
the prices of the petroleum products to be in line with the global prices.
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Darwish Al Beloushi, the Minister Financial Affairs, said that the government decision to amend
the fuel prices will come into effect from January 15, 2016.
He added that a governmental committee, comprising the Undersecretaries of the Ministries of Oil
and Gas, Finance and Commerce and Industry, along with the CEO of Oman Refineries and
Petroleum Industries Company (Orpic), is in charge of deciding the prices monthly to ensure that it
is linked to global prices. The price will be announced three days before the date of
implementation at the next month.
He explained that the committee has also the power to supervise and follow up the actual
implementation of the decision. It will also ensure that all petrol stations are in full compliance with
the new prices specified by the Committee. Moreover, the Committee will address the difficulties
that may face implementation.
The funds formerly used to subsidise petrol will be used to for Oman’s general budget, especially
to finance the projects that contribute to economic diversification, add value to Omani economy
and generate job opportunities and bring benefits to both the economy and Omani citizens.
Al Beloushi said that the decision may lead to greater efficiency of energy consumption.
Subsidies on petroleum products, including petrol and diesel, are estimated to have cost Oman an
estimated 900 million riyals (Dh8.56 billion) in 2015, compared to 840 million riyals in 2014.
The country’s Shura (advisory) Council members said that they were not consulted by the Cabinet
on the decisions that were made on Wednesday, nor was there any discussion on the issue.
Mohammad Al Busaidi, Shura member, who represents Bausher province, said that the news
needs to be explained.
The finance ministry is expected to announce the 2016 budget next week.
Omani government posted a budget deficit of 3.26 billion riyals in the first 10 months of this year,
swinging from a 189.6 million riyals surplus a year earlier, finance ministry data show.
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publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6
Qatar Slashes Price of LNG it Sells to India, to $6/MMBTU
Press Trust of India
Qatar will now charge a much lower price for the LNG it supplies to India on a long term basis.
Press Trust of India reported Thursday that the new price will be $6-7 per million British thermal
unit (mmBtu) as against $12-13 per mmBtu currently. New price regime will come into effect from
Jan 1, 2016.
Qatar has also waived off a $1.5 billion penalty against India for lifting less gas than agreed, Press
Trust reported. India’s oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan said the reworked formula will apply to
7.5 million tons a year of LNG India buys from RasGas on a long-term contract ending in April
2028.
The revised contract was signed between Petronet LNG and RasGas on Thursday. The revised
formula will base the price on a three-month average figure of Brent crude oil, replacing a five-
year average of a basket of crude imported by Japan, with a rider that Petronet buys an additional
1 million tonnes of LNG annually, according to Press Trust.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7
Russian Oil Output Hits Post-Soviet Record Amid Lower Price
Bloomberg - Elena Mazneva
Russia’s crude output set another post-Soviet record in December, according to Energy Ministry
data, as the nation’s producers seek to withstand the slump in oil prices.
The country’s crude and gas condensate production increased to 10.825 million barrels a day last
month, beating the previous record set in November by 0.4 percent, Bloomberg calculations
based on the data show. Output for the year increased 1.4 percent compared with 2014,
exceeding 534 million metric tons, or almost 10.726 million barrels a day, according to
the preliminary information e-mailed from Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit.
Russian crude producers have been setting post-Soviet records even amid plunging prices and
U.S. and European Union sanctions that cut access to foreign financing and technology. The
companies have managed to squeeze more crude out of some aging fields in West Siberia and
brought a few mid-sized new projects on line.
Russia’s crude export rose to 5.25 million barrels a day in 2015, according to the data, with
supplies to countries outside the former Soviet Union jumping 11 percent to more than 4.42 million
barrels.
The Russian government, which relies on oil for about 40 percent of its budget revenue, doesn’t
expect a drop in production this year. Investments made two to three years ago have been
supporting output in 2015 and will do so in 2016, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Dec. 22.
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Still, production may decline next year if Russia has to increase the tax burden on the industry to
narrow the budget gap given the plunging oil price, he said.
Natural gas output in Russia is declining as the main producer, the state-controlled Gazprom
PJSC, faces stronger competition from its domestic rivals and lower sales in former Soviet
republics. The nation’s total production decreased 1 percent to 635 billion cubic meters, the lowest
level since 2009, according to the data.
The ministry hasn’t been disclosing Gazprom data since the start of last year, although the
company predicted its 2015 output would fall to the record low of about 420 billion cubic meters.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9
Finland :green light $8.7bn Russian nuclear plant order
Russian Times RT
Finland has approved plans for a nuclear power plant to be built by Russia’s Rusatom Overseas
with an $8.7 billion price tag, even though there are worsening economic relations between
Russia and the rest of Europe.
The reactor will be built in northern Finland for the Fennovoima power company, and financed by
Russia’s state-controlled Rusatom. It is scheduled to begin operation in 2024 .
An undated handout provided by Finnish nuclear power company Fennovoima shows an
illustration of the planned nuclear plant by Russia's State Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom on
the design of an AES-2006 NNP, at Hanhikivi site, Pyhaejoki, Finland. (AFP Photo / Lehtikuva /
FennovoimaA) / AFP
Finland has approved plans for a nuclear power plant to be built by Russia’s Rusatom Overseas
with an $8.7 billion price tag, even though there are worsening economic relations between
Russia and the rest of Europe.
The reactor will be built in northern Finland for the Fennovoima power company, and financed by
Russia’s state-controlled Rusatom. It is scheduled to begin operation in 2024.
Fennovoima said in a statement that the decision to go ahead is important to the Finnish
economy.
“I want to thank parliament for the trust they have shown in this important project. The Hanhikivi 1
nuclear power plant will generate emission-free electricity for Fennovoima’s owners at a
predictable and reasonable price for decades to come. This large-scale investment will create jobs
and give a much-needed boost to the economy”, said Toni Hemminki, CEO of Fennovoima.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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The parliamentary vote on the project was supported by 115 lawmakers with 74 against, and ends
years of speculation if the nuclear plant would go ahead; it first won backing in 2010.
Some investors had dropped out because of concerns about profitability, and the Finnish
government had insisted that local companies hold at least a 60 percent share in it. A recent
decision by the state owned energy company Fortum to take a 15 percent stake should meet this
requirement.
The project had a number of detractors because of the worsening political and economic relations
between Russia and the West over the crisis in Ukraine.
“This project carries a foreign policy risk, and under the current circumstances it should have been
put on ice. EU-Russia relations are in their worst shape in ages,” Antto Vihma, a senior analyst at
the Finnish Institute of international Affairs told Reuters, adding that the project would not
violate EU sanctionsagainst Russia. Local energy concerns and economic woes at the end of the
day were clearly more important than political considerations.
"It is clear that this is not the best time for this decision from the international politics point of view.
But we must make decisions when the issues come to our table," centre-right economy minister
Jan Vapaavuori said before the vote.
But the plant’s future profitability is still in question, as a decline in energy-intensive industries
such as pulp and paper have led to a decrease in power consumption across the Nordic region.
Fennovoima said that at less than €50 per megawatt-hour (MWh), the plant will offer a good deal
for years to come.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Philipines: Malampaya Gas Field Offshore Philippines to be Productive
for a Long Time
Malampaya gas field offshore Philippines will remain highly productive for several more years.
Howe ver, a senior member of the House of Representatives has said that concerned agencies
should plan ahead and identify possible uses for the two massive oil rigs in the West Philippine
Sea once supply runs out, reported Philippines News Agency (PNA) on Saturday.
Once vacated, he said, the rigs could be converted by the Philippine Navy into an outpost.
The Malampaya gas field was discovered in 1991 and commercial
production commenced in 2002. The gas from the field is used to drive
three power plants with a combined 2,700 megawatts in full
generating capacity. The field has proven reserves of about 3.2 trillion
cubic feet, which is expected to last until 2024.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12
US:EIA improves monthly reporting of crude oil production
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production
With the release of the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) later today, EIA is incorporating the first
survey-based reporting of monthly crude oil production based on an expansion of its survey
program earlier this year. Today's PSM includes EIA's first reporting of June crude oil production.
EIA also begins using new survey data from multiple states and regions within the United States,
and revises figures previously reported for January through May 2015.
EIA estimates U.S. crude oil production in June 2015 at 9.3 million barrels per day (b/d), a
decrease of approximately 100,000 b/d from the revised May 2015 figure. Production estimates
released in the PSM for January through May were revised downward by 40,000 b/d to 130,000
b/d. The largest revisions in volume include decreases of oil production in Texas (ranging from
about 100,000 b/d to 150,000 b/d) and increases in the federal Gulf of Mexico (ranging from about
10,000 b/d to 50,000 b/d). U.S. crude oil production for the first six months of 2015 averaged 9.4
million b/d.
The expanded survey collects monthly oil production data from a sample of operators of oil and
natural gas wells in 15 individual states and the federal Gulf of Mexico; production from all
remaining states and the federal Pacific is reported collectively in an "other states" category. The
states and regions individually surveyed include Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kansas,
Louisiana, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah,
West Virginia, Wyoming, and the federal Gulf of Mexico.
The survey-based approach improves estimates by representing more than 90% of oil production
in the United States. A detailed comparison of estimates using the expanded survey data with the
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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previous methodology will be provided on the Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production web
page later today.
Domestic oil production has grown rapidly in recent years. More recently, with major changes in oil
prices over the past year, policymakers and markets are closely watching how domestic
production responds. These new data series provide a better way to assess production trends.
EIA's past estimates of U.S. oil production have been based on tax information and other
production data obtained directly from state agencies. Given the timetable for EIA's data products,
much of that information is lagged and incomplete at the time of publication.
For several states, the time from a particular month's originally reported production volume to the
time when that same month's reporting could be considered final (i.e., with no revisions or very
minimal further revisions) is several months to more than a year. A recent Today in
Energy article detailed the challenges these data lags created in states with rapid changes in
crude oil production growth, such as Texas.
Crude oil production data collected on the expanded survey are used as inputs to several EIA
products, including the Petroleum Supply Monthly and forecasts such as the Short-Term Energy
Outlook and the Annual Energy Outlook. Crude oil production data continue to be available in its
previous locations on EIA's data pages and will also be presented on EIA's Monthly Crude Oil and
Natural Gas Production web page, along with natural gas data from the new expanded survey.
Later in 2015, EIA will include estimates of monthly crude oil production by density, as measured
by API gravity, for the individually surveyed states and the federal Gulf of Mexico.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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NewBase 03 January 2016 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil prices could hit record lows in 2016
AFP
Struggling oil producers could suffer even more pain in 2016 with further plunges in already
record-low prices, BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley warned Saturday.
“A low point could be in the first quarter,” Dudley told BBC radio.
Oil prices fell by 34 percent in 2015, battered by prolonged global
oversupply and a slowdown in energy-hungry China’s economy.
Dudley predicted that prices could stabilize towards the end of the year,
but would remain low for the foreseeable future.
“Prices are going to stay lower for longer, we have said it and I think we
are in this for a couple of years. For sure, there is a boom-and-bust cycle
here,” Dudley said.
Prices have particularly slumped since December 4 when the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decided against limiting production as
members fight to keep market share.
Potentially adding to the supply worries was action by the US Congress last month to end the 40-
year-old ban on exports of crude oil produced in the country.
Oil prices pared losses Thursday but ended 2015 sharply lower as the “black gold” was battered
by prolonged global oversupply and a slowdown in energy-hungry China’s economy.
North Sea Brent, the European benchmark for oil, dropped almost 35 percent over the year, while
the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 30 percent.
“With Brent crude oil hovering near 11-year lows and WTI not faring all that much better, the
markets are ending the year on a somber note, consistent with what we see as ongoing physical
oversupply,” said Tim Evans of Citi Futures.
The key futures contracts finished Thursday with modest daily gains. WTI for delivery in February
rose 44 cents to close at $37.04 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Oil price special
coverage
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In London, Brent for February delivery rose 82 cents to $37.28 a barrel.
The modest rebound Thursday may stem from investors trying to minimize risks after betting on
prices to fall ahead of the long New Year’s weekend, said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates.
Markets are closed Friday.
“It could be simply end-of-year short-covering because the market has been so bearish,” he said,
“and people squaring their positions.”
Crude futures have dived from more than $100 a barrel in mid-2014 as abundant supplies were
exacerbated by strong output by OPEC and the United States.
Prices have particularly slumped since Dec. 4 when OPEC decided against limiting production as
members fight to keep market share.
Also weighing on market sentiment was China as growth slowed in the economy of the world’s
largest energy consumer. And OPEC member Iran was poised to boost crude exports after
sanctions are lifted, part of its landmark nuclear agreement with major powers.
“We know the market is oversupplied and as we go into 2016 the market will await the return of
Iranian oil,” Lipow said.
Potentially adding to the supply worries was action by the US Congress earlier this month to end
the 40-year-old US ban on exports of crude oil produced in the country.
NuStar Energy and ConocoPhillips announced Wednesday they were loading “what they believe
to be the nation’s first export cargo of US-produced light crude oil” since the ban was lifted. —
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NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 03 January 2016
Hope lingers despite gloom on the horizon
Syed Rashid Husain
The global energy landscape has changed significantly – and for good – some insist. Gloom
continues to hover over the crude markets as New Year began. Both the Brent and WTI futures
finished 2015 down by more than 30 percent, as glut continued to haunt the markets. And 2016
may not be too different!
How low could crude go further – in 2016? Pundits seem divided.
Goldman Sachs has been betting on $20 oil for some time now. A few others seem to be joining in
the chorus. Again Capital founding partner John Kilduff now says US crude oil could fall to as low
as $18 per barrel in 2016. “I think it’s going to have to get that painful for the global industry to
finally respond and that includes Saudi Arabia, OPEC and Russia,” he told CNBC’s ” Closing Bell,”
on Thursday.
“We believe that the weakness in crude oil prices reflects a combination of fundamental factors
and financial flows. Fundamentally, there is simply too much oil,” states Canada’s Bank of
Montreal. The supply-demand imbalance could force oil down an uncontrollable chute, such that
prices could “drop to $25, $20 or even $15, as some aggressive put buyers are speculating,” it
added.
Trader Steve Grasso, Stuart Frankel’s Director of Institutional Sales too isn’t ruling out $20 oil. “I
think everyone who is looking at oil now, they should think about $20s. They should think about
maybe even the teens because at $110 no one thought it was going to trade at $80,” he said.
“Headwinds (are) growing for 2016 oil,” Morgan Stanley said in its outlook for 2016. “The hope for
a rebalancing in 2016 continues to suffer serious setbacks,” the bank added.
Tom Kloza, founder and global head of energy analysis at Oil Price Information Service, too is
offering a pretty dour outlook. But he doesn’t expect the market to hit $20 a barrel. Yet even he
thinks, the outlook for crude as “very much a slog” for 2016. Kloza is predicting the WTI to hit $32
a barrel this year. “I think next year is very similar to this year and I think there’s good chance oil is
going back to numbers reached back in December 2008,” Kloza told MarketWatch.
However, he doesn’t totally rule out further weakening of the crude markets. “I would think that we
are going to retest the lows…the market will be most severely tested in February, March and April
when we get Iranian crude and we have refinery maintenance,” Kloza emphasized. “On balance,
about $5 lower on average in 2016 than 2015 so very, very much a slog,” he concluded.
Others too are not far off.
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The first half of 2016 is looking “pretty ugly” for hammered oil prices that are poised for even more
losses, John Kingston of McGraw Hill Financial Global Institute’s told the press last Thursday.
While some recovery in prices – perhaps at $60 a barrel – may take place at the end of 2016,
“You would hit a price in the 20s before you would certainly get there, Kingston added.
“The party is over, at least for the next two to three years,” said Oystein Berentsen, of Strong
Petroleum in Singapore pointed out.
There are indeed reasons for this gloom.
After dropping down from the peak of 9.6 million bpd in April to 9.1 million bpd, US crude
production reportedly rose by 23,000 barrels a day last week to 9.2 million barrels a day.
“Production is up again, it’s defying all odds,” said Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the Energy
Management Institute. “We still just have a robust amount of supply. […] I just don’t see anything
that excites me to want to buy the market.”
Crude supplies in Cushing, Okla., a key storage hub and the delivery point for Nymex futures,
rose to 63 million barrels, a record in weekly data going back to April 2004. Concerns earlier in the
year that Cushing could run out of room to store oil is also now weighing heavily on prices.
US crude inventories too rose by 2.6 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 25, the US Energy
Information Administration said. Last month, the United States also took a historic move in
repealing a 40-year ban on US crude exports to countries outside Canada, acknowledging the
industry’s growth.
In the meantime, Russia’s oil output is touched a post-Soviet record of 10.86 million bpd last
week. Russia’s December output was boosted by the OAO Novatek-led Yargeo venture’s
Yarudeyskoye field, which started producing on the first day of the month. Output from the deposit
will rapidly reach 70,000 barrels a day, the company said Dec. 1.
A new tax regime in Russia could pave the way to a further increase in oil production from fields in
Western Siberia, the Russian energy minister is now asserting. Energy Minister Alexander Novak
said oil production in Western Siberia, once a major contributor to overall output, was declining at
an average rate of around 1 percent per year. Changes in a tax system, where so-called excess
profits will be taxed at 70 percent, will make Western Siberia commercially viable. Under the
current tax regime, Novak said about 73 billion barrels of oil are not economic.
“Changes in the tax system are to create conditions to make production of this oil commercially
viable,” he said in an interview.
While most OPEC members continue to produce at elevated levels, Iran too is gearing up to flood
the market with 500,000 bpd within weeks of sanctions being lifted while the ceasefire in Libya
may also add extra barrels, writes Ole Hansen, head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank.
And global economy is not in the best of the health too, dampening the demand growth scenario.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde is now asserting that global economic growth would be
“disappointing” in 2016, with the prospect of rising US interest rates and a slowdown in China
contributing to a higher risk of vulnerability.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18
Weak data from major oil buyers China and Japan is also contributing to market woes. Chinese
industrial profits reportedly declined 1.4 percent in November, and in Japan, industrial production
fell 1.0 percent in November from a month earlier. This was a considerable bigger slowdown than
expected.
Brimming oil inventories in Europe is a cause of concern to the market too. ” Bjarne Schieldrop,
chief commodity analyst at SEB in Oslo, believes, “oil inventories in Asia are going to get closer to
saturation in the first quarter.”
Saudi oil movers and shakers are hence realistic. Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi Aramco chairman is not
anticipating any immediate rebalancing of the markets in 2016. “Supply has plateaued in North
America and (is) declining by significant amounts. We expect that to continue and perhaps
accelerate in 2016,” he said, stressing that crude oil markets are likely to balance, but only “some
time in 2016.”
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, &
compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the
local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the
UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 03 January 2016 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20

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New base 760 special 03 january 2016

  • 1. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 03 January 2016 - Issue No. 760 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE: Dewa opens doors for private investment on renewable energy The national LeAnne Graves The floodgates for private investment in Dubai’s renewable energy sector will open this year as the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) looks to private companies to pick up a tab worth billions as budgets tighten amid low oil prices. Dewa announced yesterday it would tender renewable energy projects worth more than Dh27 billion based on an independent power producer (IPP) model. While the utility would increase this year’s budget to Dh23.6bn, up slightly by more than 3 per cent from last year, Dewa said that using an IPP system would “leverage public-private partnerships and build new capacity in renewable energy”. Saeed Al Tayer, the managing director and chief executive of Dewa, said this year’s budget would “meet all the requirements of Dewa’s projects”, with 60 per cent going towards operational spending such as maintenance.
  • 2. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 About 37 per cent of the budget would go towards capital expenditure and projects. “The 2016 budget includes a number of key projects including Dh2.9bn in generation, Dh3.4bn in power transmission, Dh1.2bn in power distribution and Dh1.04bn in water and civil [works] in addition to other amounts totalling Dh95 million,” Mr Al Tayer said. While the budget follows a similar breakdown as last year, it is only a minimal increase given that more projects than ever are planned. The shift to private financing comes as less capital is available as a result of low oil prices that have persisted for more than a year. The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, has dropped by about 65 per cent since the market rout began in June 2014. Although oil sales only make up 4 per cent of Dubai’s revenue, the emirate depends on the sector for indirect capital. Dubai established a new public-private partnership (PPP) law that came into effect on November 19 to offset lower revenue, although it excluded the power and water sector as it has separate legislation. Dewa will need further support from the private sector to meet the ambitious renewable energy targets set forth by the Dubai Supreme Council. At the end of November, Dubai said that not only would it have 7 per cent of its energy mix derive from renewable energy sources, but also by 2030 that amount would total 25 per cent and 75 per cent by 2050. At the beginning of last year, Dewa launched the five-prong Smart Initiative, with the first installment, Shams Dubai, looking to equip residential and commercial buildings with solar panels. “By setting up the conditions for growth through these key legislative, funding, infrastructure and skills development mechanisms, Dewa is looking to the market to respond,” said Ridah Sabouni, the Middle East North Africa managing director of the US consultancy Energetics. “It will take at least a couple of years to get things going, but eventually you will see a robust market develop here.” Before Shams Dubai, there lacked incentive for solar companies to invest a great deal in the emirate. “With Shams Dubai coming into place now, you could see more solar PV companies come to town or expand their already existing – and perhaps small – operations,” Mr Sabouni said.
  • 3. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 UAE: Abu Dhabi (ADWEA) hikes water, electricity tariffs, 2016 Gulf News Five months after the UAE’s Ministry of Energy deregulated fuel prices across the country, residents in Abu Dhabi can expect even further hikes in their energy bills, with new tariffs for water and electricity. The new rates, which come into effect starting this month, aim to encourage residents to rationalise their energy consumption, and contribute to efforts to sustain natural resources, according to Abu Dhabi Distribution Company (ADDC). While the water tariff for expatriates will remain unchanged at Dh5.95 for 1,000 litres, those who exceed the daily limit of 700 litres in flats and 5,000 litres in villas will be charged Dh10.55 per 1,000 litres. The figure is an increase from the Dh9.9 rate last year.
  • 4. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 The tariff for expatriates living in villas using up to 200 kilowatts of electricity per day will also remain flat, but those exceeding the limit will be charged 31.8 fils per kilowatt — up from 21 fils in 2015. Expatriates living in apartments will have a daily limit of 20 kilowatts, and will be charged the same rates for exceeding the limit. Falling oil prices The rise in tariffs in Abu Dhabi comes at a time when various GCC countries are cutting energy subsidies to counter the effects of falling oil prices that are now at around $37. Last week, Saudi Arabia announced it would hike petrol and electricity prices after announcing an $87 billion (Dh319 billion) deficit in its 2016 budget. In the past week, Oman also said it would amend the price of petrol to meet global prices starting January 15, while Bahrain’s cabinet approved a new pricing system for diesel and kerosene. Oman: fuel cost increase not exceed 40 baiza per litre, Gulf News -Fahad Al Mukrashi, Correspondent Adjusting the prices of Oman’s petroleum products doesn’t mean the deregulation of all fuel prices. Instead the goals is to bring them in line with global prices, Salim Al Aufi, Undersecretary of Oil and Gas said on Thursday. Al Aufi told Al Shabiba daily that the new petrol prices will not exceed 160 baisas (Dh1.52), compared to the current 120 baisas per litre. Al Aufi added that there is no reason of that the price of goods in Oman should increase, since the increase in diesel price will be limited and similar to global prices. Steep increases in diesel prices are often a major contributor to inflation due to increased shipping costs. Al Aufi said the additional cost of transporting goods will not exceed 5 to 7 per cent of the total value, which means the effect will be minimal. Al Aufi said the Ministry of Oil and Gas conducted a study that showed that the fuel consumption for each individual doesn’t exceed 20 riyals per month. After adjusting the fuel prices, the increase will be only 5.5 riyals per person. Al Aufi added that a committee has been formed to monitor the sale of the petroleum products in the local market. The minister’s comments came the day after Oman’s cabinet approved a series of spending cuts and tax hikes to mitigate with decreased revenues the state in receiving following the drop in oil prices. In July 2014, oil per barrel was selling at $115, but today’s prices are about $36. The Cabinet agreed to reduce government spending as well as develop non-oil revenues by raising taxes on companies’ profits. It will also raise fees on government services and adjusting the prices of the petroleum products to be in line with the global prices.
  • 5. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Darwish Al Beloushi, the Minister Financial Affairs, said that the government decision to amend the fuel prices will come into effect from January 15, 2016. He added that a governmental committee, comprising the Undersecretaries of the Ministries of Oil and Gas, Finance and Commerce and Industry, along with the CEO of Oman Refineries and Petroleum Industries Company (Orpic), is in charge of deciding the prices monthly to ensure that it is linked to global prices. The price will be announced three days before the date of implementation at the next month. He explained that the committee has also the power to supervise and follow up the actual implementation of the decision. It will also ensure that all petrol stations are in full compliance with the new prices specified by the Committee. Moreover, the Committee will address the difficulties that may face implementation. The funds formerly used to subsidise petrol will be used to for Oman’s general budget, especially to finance the projects that contribute to economic diversification, add value to Omani economy and generate job opportunities and bring benefits to both the economy and Omani citizens. Al Beloushi said that the decision may lead to greater efficiency of energy consumption. Subsidies on petroleum products, including petrol and diesel, are estimated to have cost Oman an estimated 900 million riyals (Dh8.56 billion) in 2015, compared to 840 million riyals in 2014. The country’s Shura (advisory) Council members said that they were not consulted by the Cabinet on the decisions that were made on Wednesday, nor was there any discussion on the issue. Mohammad Al Busaidi, Shura member, who represents Bausher province, said that the news needs to be explained. The finance ministry is expected to announce the 2016 budget next week. Omani government posted a budget deficit of 3.26 billion riyals in the first 10 months of this year, swinging from a 189.6 million riyals surplus a year earlier, finance ministry data show.
  • 6. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Qatar Slashes Price of LNG it Sells to India, to $6/MMBTU Press Trust of India Qatar will now charge a much lower price for the LNG it supplies to India on a long term basis. Press Trust of India reported Thursday that the new price will be $6-7 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu) as against $12-13 per mmBtu currently. New price regime will come into effect from Jan 1, 2016. Qatar has also waived off a $1.5 billion penalty against India for lifting less gas than agreed, Press Trust reported. India’s oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan said the reworked formula will apply to 7.5 million tons a year of LNG India buys from RasGas on a long-term contract ending in April 2028. The revised contract was signed between Petronet LNG and RasGas on Thursday. The revised formula will base the price on a three-month average figure of Brent crude oil, replacing a five- year average of a basket of crude imported by Japan, with a rider that Petronet buys an additional 1 million tonnes of LNG annually, according to Press Trust.
  • 7. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Russian Oil Output Hits Post-Soviet Record Amid Lower Price Bloomberg - Elena Mazneva Russia’s crude output set another post-Soviet record in December, according to Energy Ministry data, as the nation’s producers seek to withstand the slump in oil prices. The country’s crude and gas condensate production increased to 10.825 million barrels a day last month, beating the previous record set in November by 0.4 percent, Bloomberg calculations based on the data show. Output for the year increased 1.4 percent compared with 2014, exceeding 534 million metric tons, or almost 10.726 million barrels a day, according to the preliminary information e-mailed from Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit. Russian crude producers have been setting post-Soviet records even amid plunging prices and U.S. and European Union sanctions that cut access to foreign financing and technology. The companies have managed to squeeze more crude out of some aging fields in West Siberia and brought a few mid-sized new projects on line. Russia’s crude export rose to 5.25 million barrels a day in 2015, according to the data, with supplies to countries outside the former Soviet Union jumping 11 percent to more than 4.42 million barrels. The Russian government, which relies on oil for about 40 percent of its budget revenue, doesn’t expect a drop in production this year. Investments made two to three years ago have been supporting output in 2015 and will do so in 2016, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Dec. 22.
  • 8. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 Still, production may decline next year if Russia has to increase the tax burden on the industry to narrow the budget gap given the plunging oil price, he said. Natural gas output in Russia is declining as the main producer, the state-controlled Gazprom PJSC, faces stronger competition from its domestic rivals and lower sales in former Soviet republics. The nation’s total production decreased 1 percent to 635 billion cubic meters, the lowest level since 2009, according to the data. The ministry hasn’t been disclosing Gazprom data since the start of last year, although the company predicted its 2015 output would fall to the record low of about 420 billion cubic meters.
  • 9. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 Finland :green light $8.7bn Russian nuclear plant order Russian Times RT Finland has approved plans for a nuclear power plant to be built by Russia’s Rusatom Overseas with an $8.7 billion price tag, even though there are worsening economic relations between Russia and the rest of Europe. The reactor will be built in northern Finland for the Fennovoima power company, and financed by Russia’s state-controlled Rusatom. It is scheduled to begin operation in 2024 . An undated handout provided by Finnish nuclear power company Fennovoima shows an illustration of the planned nuclear plant by Russia's State Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom on the design of an AES-2006 NNP, at Hanhikivi site, Pyhaejoki, Finland. (AFP Photo / Lehtikuva / FennovoimaA) / AFP Finland has approved plans for a nuclear power plant to be built by Russia’s Rusatom Overseas with an $8.7 billion price tag, even though there are worsening economic relations between Russia and the rest of Europe. The reactor will be built in northern Finland for the Fennovoima power company, and financed by Russia’s state-controlled Rusatom. It is scheduled to begin operation in 2024. Fennovoima said in a statement that the decision to go ahead is important to the Finnish economy. “I want to thank parliament for the trust they have shown in this important project. The Hanhikivi 1 nuclear power plant will generate emission-free electricity for Fennovoima’s owners at a predictable and reasonable price for decades to come. This large-scale investment will create jobs and give a much-needed boost to the economy”, said Toni Hemminki, CEO of Fennovoima.
  • 10. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 The parliamentary vote on the project was supported by 115 lawmakers with 74 against, and ends years of speculation if the nuclear plant would go ahead; it first won backing in 2010. Some investors had dropped out because of concerns about profitability, and the Finnish government had insisted that local companies hold at least a 60 percent share in it. A recent decision by the state owned energy company Fortum to take a 15 percent stake should meet this requirement. The project had a number of detractors because of the worsening political and economic relations between Russia and the West over the crisis in Ukraine. “This project carries a foreign policy risk, and under the current circumstances it should have been put on ice. EU-Russia relations are in their worst shape in ages,” Antto Vihma, a senior analyst at the Finnish Institute of international Affairs told Reuters, adding that the project would not violate EU sanctionsagainst Russia. Local energy concerns and economic woes at the end of the day were clearly more important than political considerations. "It is clear that this is not the best time for this decision from the international politics point of view. But we must make decisions when the issues come to our table," centre-right economy minister Jan Vapaavuori said before the vote. But the plant’s future profitability is still in question, as a decline in energy-intensive industries such as pulp and paper have led to a decrease in power consumption across the Nordic region. Fennovoima said that at less than €50 per megawatt-hour (MWh), the plant will offer a good deal for years to come.
  • 11. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 Philipines: Malampaya Gas Field Offshore Philippines to be Productive for a Long Time Malampaya gas field offshore Philippines will remain highly productive for several more years. Howe ver, a senior member of the House of Representatives has said that concerned agencies should plan ahead and identify possible uses for the two massive oil rigs in the West Philippine Sea once supply runs out, reported Philippines News Agency (PNA) on Saturday. Once vacated, he said, the rigs could be converted by the Philippine Navy into an outpost. The Malampaya gas field was discovered in 1991 and commercial production commenced in 2002. The gas from the field is used to drive three power plants with a combined 2,700 megawatts in full generating capacity. The field has proven reserves of about 3.2 trillion cubic feet, which is expected to last until 2024.
  • 12. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 US:EIA improves monthly reporting of crude oil production Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production With the release of the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) later today, EIA is incorporating the first survey-based reporting of monthly crude oil production based on an expansion of its survey program earlier this year. Today's PSM includes EIA's first reporting of June crude oil production. EIA also begins using new survey data from multiple states and regions within the United States, and revises figures previously reported for January through May 2015. EIA estimates U.S. crude oil production in June 2015 at 9.3 million barrels per day (b/d), a decrease of approximately 100,000 b/d from the revised May 2015 figure. Production estimates released in the PSM for January through May were revised downward by 40,000 b/d to 130,000 b/d. The largest revisions in volume include decreases of oil production in Texas (ranging from about 100,000 b/d to 150,000 b/d) and increases in the federal Gulf of Mexico (ranging from about 10,000 b/d to 50,000 b/d). U.S. crude oil production for the first six months of 2015 averaged 9.4 million b/d. The expanded survey collects monthly oil production data from a sample of operators of oil and natural gas wells in 15 individual states and the federal Gulf of Mexico; production from all remaining states and the federal Pacific is reported collectively in an "other states" category. The states and regions individually surveyed include Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming, and the federal Gulf of Mexico. The survey-based approach improves estimates by representing more than 90% of oil production in the United States. A detailed comparison of estimates using the expanded survey data with the
  • 13. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 previous methodology will be provided on the Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production web page later today. Domestic oil production has grown rapidly in recent years. More recently, with major changes in oil prices over the past year, policymakers and markets are closely watching how domestic production responds. These new data series provide a better way to assess production trends. EIA's past estimates of U.S. oil production have been based on tax information and other production data obtained directly from state agencies. Given the timetable for EIA's data products, much of that information is lagged and incomplete at the time of publication. For several states, the time from a particular month's originally reported production volume to the time when that same month's reporting could be considered final (i.e., with no revisions or very minimal further revisions) is several months to more than a year. A recent Today in Energy article detailed the challenges these data lags created in states with rapid changes in crude oil production growth, such as Texas. Crude oil production data collected on the expanded survey are used as inputs to several EIA products, including the Petroleum Supply Monthly and forecasts such as the Short-Term Energy Outlook and the Annual Energy Outlook. Crude oil production data continue to be available in its previous locations on EIA's data pages and will also be presented on EIA's Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production web page, along with natural gas data from the new expanded survey. Later in 2015, EIA will include estimates of monthly crude oil production by density, as measured by API gravity, for the individually surveyed states and the federal Gulf of Mexico.
  • 14. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 NewBase 03 January 2016 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Oil prices could hit record lows in 2016 AFP Struggling oil producers could suffer even more pain in 2016 with further plunges in already record-low prices, BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley warned Saturday. “A low point could be in the first quarter,” Dudley told BBC radio. Oil prices fell by 34 percent in 2015, battered by prolonged global oversupply and a slowdown in energy-hungry China’s economy. Dudley predicted that prices could stabilize towards the end of the year, but would remain low for the foreseeable future. “Prices are going to stay lower for longer, we have said it and I think we are in this for a couple of years. For sure, there is a boom-and-bust cycle here,” Dudley said. Prices have particularly slumped since December 4 when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decided against limiting production as members fight to keep market share. Potentially adding to the supply worries was action by the US Congress last month to end the 40- year-old ban on exports of crude oil produced in the country. Oil prices pared losses Thursday but ended 2015 sharply lower as the “black gold” was battered by prolonged global oversupply and a slowdown in energy-hungry China’s economy. North Sea Brent, the European benchmark for oil, dropped almost 35 percent over the year, while the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 30 percent. “With Brent crude oil hovering near 11-year lows and WTI not faring all that much better, the markets are ending the year on a somber note, consistent with what we see as ongoing physical oversupply,” said Tim Evans of Citi Futures. The key futures contracts finished Thursday with modest daily gains. WTI for delivery in February rose 44 cents to close at $37.04 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil price special coverage
  • 15. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 In London, Brent for February delivery rose 82 cents to $37.28 a barrel. The modest rebound Thursday may stem from investors trying to minimize risks after betting on prices to fall ahead of the long New Year’s weekend, said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates. Markets are closed Friday. “It could be simply end-of-year short-covering because the market has been so bearish,” he said, “and people squaring their positions.” Crude futures have dived from more than $100 a barrel in mid-2014 as abundant supplies were exacerbated by strong output by OPEC and the United States. Prices have particularly slumped since Dec. 4 when OPEC decided against limiting production as members fight to keep market share. Also weighing on market sentiment was China as growth slowed in the economy of the world’s largest energy consumer. And OPEC member Iran was poised to boost crude exports after sanctions are lifted, part of its landmark nuclear agreement with major powers. “We know the market is oversupplied and as we go into 2016 the market will await the return of Iranian oil,” Lipow said. Potentially adding to the supply worries was action by the US Congress earlier this month to end the 40-year-old US ban on exports of crude oil produced in the country. NuStar Energy and ConocoPhillips announced Wednesday they were loading “what they believe to be the nation’s first export cargo of US-produced light crude oil” since the ban was lifted. —
  • 16. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release 03 January 2016 Hope lingers despite gloom on the horizon Syed Rashid Husain The global energy landscape has changed significantly – and for good – some insist. Gloom continues to hover over the crude markets as New Year began. Both the Brent and WTI futures finished 2015 down by more than 30 percent, as glut continued to haunt the markets. And 2016 may not be too different! How low could crude go further – in 2016? Pundits seem divided. Goldman Sachs has been betting on $20 oil for some time now. A few others seem to be joining in the chorus. Again Capital founding partner John Kilduff now says US crude oil could fall to as low as $18 per barrel in 2016. “I think it’s going to have to get that painful for the global industry to finally respond and that includes Saudi Arabia, OPEC and Russia,” he told CNBC’s ” Closing Bell,” on Thursday. “We believe that the weakness in crude oil prices reflects a combination of fundamental factors and financial flows. Fundamentally, there is simply too much oil,” states Canada’s Bank of Montreal. The supply-demand imbalance could force oil down an uncontrollable chute, such that prices could “drop to $25, $20 or even $15, as some aggressive put buyers are speculating,” it added. Trader Steve Grasso, Stuart Frankel’s Director of Institutional Sales too isn’t ruling out $20 oil. “I think everyone who is looking at oil now, they should think about $20s. They should think about maybe even the teens because at $110 no one thought it was going to trade at $80,” he said. “Headwinds (are) growing for 2016 oil,” Morgan Stanley said in its outlook for 2016. “The hope for a rebalancing in 2016 continues to suffer serious setbacks,” the bank added. Tom Kloza, founder and global head of energy analysis at Oil Price Information Service, too is offering a pretty dour outlook. But he doesn’t expect the market to hit $20 a barrel. Yet even he thinks, the outlook for crude as “very much a slog” for 2016. Kloza is predicting the WTI to hit $32 a barrel this year. “I think next year is very similar to this year and I think there’s good chance oil is going back to numbers reached back in December 2008,” Kloza told MarketWatch. However, he doesn’t totally rule out further weakening of the crude markets. “I would think that we are going to retest the lows…the market will be most severely tested in February, March and April when we get Iranian crude and we have refinery maintenance,” Kloza emphasized. “On balance, about $5 lower on average in 2016 than 2015 so very, very much a slog,” he concluded. Others too are not far off.
  • 17. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 The first half of 2016 is looking “pretty ugly” for hammered oil prices that are poised for even more losses, John Kingston of McGraw Hill Financial Global Institute’s told the press last Thursday. While some recovery in prices – perhaps at $60 a barrel – may take place at the end of 2016, “You would hit a price in the 20s before you would certainly get there, Kingston added. “The party is over, at least for the next two to three years,” said Oystein Berentsen, of Strong Petroleum in Singapore pointed out. There are indeed reasons for this gloom. After dropping down from the peak of 9.6 million bpd in April to 9.1 million bpd, US crude production reportedly rose by 23,000 barrels a day last week to 9.2 million barrels a day. “Production is up again, it’s defying all odds,” said Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the Energy Management Institute. “We still just have a robust amount of supply. […] I just don’t see anything that excites me to want to buy the market.” Crude supplies in Cushing, Okla., a key storage hub and the delivery point for Nymex futures, rose to 63 million barrels, a record in weekly data going back to April 2004. Concerns earlier in the year that Cushing could run out of room to store oil is also now weighing heavily on prices. US crude inventories too rose by 2.6 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 25, the US Energy Information Administration said. Last month, the United States also took a historic move in repealing a 40-year ban on US crude exports to countries outside Canada, acknowledging the industry’s growth. In the meantime, Russia’s oil output is touched a post-Soviet record of 10.86 million bpd last week. Russia’s December output was boosted by the OAO Novatek-led Yargeo venture’s Yarudeyskoye field, which started producing on the first day of the month. Output from the deposit will rapidly reach 70,000 barrels a day, the company said Dec. 1. A new tax regime in Russia could pave the way to a further increase in oil production from fields in Western Siberia, the Russian energy minister is now asserting. Energy Minister Alexander Novak said oil production in Western Siberia, once a major contributor to overall output, was declining at an average rate of around 1 percent per year. Changes in a tax system, where so-called excess profits will be taxed at 70 percent, will make Western Siberia commercially viable. Under the current tax regime, Novak said about 73 billion barrels of oil are not economic. “Changes in the tax system are to create conditions to make production of this oil commercially viable,” he said in an interview. While most OPEC members continue to produce at elevated levels, Iran too is gearing up to flood the market with 500,000 bpd within weeks of sanctions being lifted while the ceasefire in Libya may also add extra barrels, writes Ole Hansen, head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank. And global economy is not in the best of the health too, dampening the demand growth scenario. IMF chief Christine Lagarde is now asserting that global economic growth would be “disappointing” in 2016, with the prospect of rising US interest rates and a slowdown in China contributing to a higher risk of vulnerability.
  • 18. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18 Weak data from major oil buyers China and Japan is also contributing to market woes. Chinese industrial profits reportedly declined 1.4 percent in November, and in Japan, industrial production fell 1.0 percent in November from a month earlier. This was a considerable bigger slowdown than expected. Brimming oil inventories in Europe is a cause of concern to the market too. ” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB in Oslo, believes, “oil inventories in Asia are going to get closer to saturation in the first quarter.” Saudi oil movers and shakers are hence realistic. Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi Aramco chairman is not anticipating any immediate rebalancing of the markets in 2016. “Supply has plateaued in North America and (is) declining by significant amounts. We expect that to continue and perhaps accelerate in 2016,” he said, stressing that crude oil markets are likely to balance, but only “some time in 2016.”
  • 19. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 03 January 2016 K. Al Awadi
  • 20. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20