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NewBase Energy News 26 April 2016 - Issue No. 838 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Saudi Arabia economic transformation as Drop in
oil prices force reforms for after oil era
News Agencies + NewBase
the country unveiled a raft of economic targets that the deputy crown prince said will allow the
country to wean itself off a reliance on oil by 2020.
The Tadawul, which had been in the red, rallied to finish up 2.5 per cent at the close after Prince
Mohammed bin Salman spoke of the country’s vision for 2030 in an interview with Dubai-based Al
Arabiya.
Vision 2030’s ambitious targets include selling up to 5 per cent of Saudi Aramco, creating a
sovereign wealth fund with 7 trillion Saudi riyals (Dh6.85tn) in assets, and generating 97 billion
riyals from the mining industry by 2020, the prince told Al Arabiya.
“This obviously is set to restore confidence and optimism in the general economy and this will be
reflected of course in the stock market," said Rami Sidani, the head of frontier investments at the
asset manager Schroders. “But we look for the long-term impact of this plan, which is said to
trickle down to across the different sectors of the economy, especially given the increase in
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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efficiency as you reduce dependency on subsidies and government spending and the increased
involvement of the private sector."
The plan also envisions boosting private-sector contribution to GDP to 65 per cent and boosting
non-oil exports to 50 per cent of GDP by 2030, Al Arabiya reported. Non-oil revenue will also be
boosted from 136bn riyals to 1tn riyals by 2030, the channel said. The vision also projects
lowering the unemployment rate to 7 per cent from 12 per cent.
“I think that the targets are far more reasonable than markets initially expected," said John
Sfakianakis, the director of economic research at the Riyadh-based Gulf Research Centre. “I think
the targets are realistic as long as the commitments and sustainability are there from the
government side and of course from also the private sector."
Saudi Arabia began reforms late last year, which the prince called “a quick fix", that will continue
this year to help steer the economy through the low oil price era. These reforms included raising
prices of energy products, water and electricity and trimming spending to clamp down on a fiscal
deficit that had reached 367bn riyals.
But these quick fixes will be accompanied by medium-term programmes aimed at lowering the
fiscal deficit, which is projected to fall this year to 326.2bn riyals.
The programme also included incentives for the private sector to fill the gap created by reductions
in government spending, currently the main driver for economic growth.Already the IMF has
lowered the country’s growth forecast to 1.2 per cent this year from 3.4 per cent last year, as the
oil price plunge takes its toll on the economy.
“While reforms could accelerate growth through increased foreign investment, it will take some
time for this to materialise," said Giyas Gokkent, the senior economist for the Middle East and
Africa at the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
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“Privatisation could be key to attracting foreign investment inflows and be a significant source for
one-off revenues, which could amount to more than 30 per cent of GDP over the medium to long
term. However, the pace at which privatisation will be executed remains to be seen."
“A number of measures could involve fiscal headwinds which may create political challenges."
The IIF is forecasting a growth rate of 1.4 per cent for Saudi Arabia and a fiscal deficit reaching
14.2 per cent of GDP for this year.
Almost eight decades after oil was first found in Saudi Arabia, the government has unveiled a
blueprint for an economy less reliant on crude sales to fuel growth and fund infrastructure. Four
charts show the challenges the kingdom faces and the probable impact of the new policy.
Initial Pain
The government has cut spending to shore up its public finances while seeking an alternative
source of revenue. Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman says authorities want to
generate$100 billion per year in additional non-oil revenue by 2020. Reducing subsidies for
gasoline, electricity and water will account for $30 billion of that amount, while a new value-added
tax will generate $10 billion a year.
But while investors are likely to welcome the plan, Saudi Arabia won’t be able to escape some
pain as it’s implemented. Economists in a Bloomberg survey predict growth will slow this year as
cuts to government spending -- the engine of growth in recent years -- take a toll on the private
sector.
Non-oil growth will slow to 1.6 percent this year from 3.6 percent in 2015, according to
International Monetary Fund forecasts.
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Budget Scrutiny
Even with $100 dollar oil filling public coffers, Saudi Arabia typically overspent by an average of 25
to 30 percent a year as budget planners looked first at revenue before deciding how much to
spend, Minister of State Mohammad Al-Sheikh said in an interview last month.
Future budgets will face more scrutiny and the process has been revamped to consider actual
spending needs before funds are allocated, he said. As a result, Saudi Arabia will be able to
sustain spending growth of 3 to 5 percent a year, with the budget balanced by 2020.
Debt Financing
The country’s ratio of debt to economic output, the world’s lowest in 2014, is expected to increase
to over 25 percent by 2017, according to the International Monetary Fund, which said in October
that the kingdom risked wiping out its financial reserves in five years. In fact, the situation was
much worse.
"They were going to be wiped out in less than two years if we continued at the same spending
level," Minister of State Mohammad Al-Sheikh said in an interview last month.
Saudi Arabia’s cost of borrowing is rising just as it prepares an international bond sale to reduce
pressure on reserves. Its rating was lowered one level to AA-, the fourth-highest investment
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grade, by Fitch Ratings earlier this month, following cuts by Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s this
year.
Oil Prices Key
While spending cuts mean the kingdom will no longer need $100 oil to balance the budget, the
nation’s dependency will be hard to shake. Oil accounted for more than 70 percent of state
revenue in 2015, and the IMF predicts a budget break-even price of $67 this year -- still well
above current levels.
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Outsized Offering
A key part of Saudi Arabia’s plan is to sell less than 5 percent of state-run oil company Saudi
Aramco, potentially the world’s biggest initial public offering. Even a small stake would dominate
the tightly regulated Saudi stock market, the Tadawul, which has a capitalization of about $409
billion.
Prince Mohammed told Bloomberg this month that the kingdom is considering a dual listing as a
way to reach investors beyond the local stock market. While Aramco’s valuation hasn’t been
completed, the company is expected to be worth more than $2 trillion, the prince told Al Arabiya
television on Monday.
In the long run, the new measures announced by the government will benefit the economy, expert
says
The record drop in oil prices from more than $110 per barrel in 2014 to less than $40 per barrel
this year has forced the Saudi government to reform its economy and look beyond oil, analysts
said on Monday.
“There is no doubt that low oil prices is the main reason why Saudi Arabia is undertaking reforms
to diversify its economy. In the long run, the new measures announced by the government will
benefit the economy,” said Edward Bell, commodity analyst from Emirates NBD.
As part of the new reforms announced on Monday, tourism will be encouraged and new industries
will be set up.
“We have developed a case of oil addiction in Saudi Arabia,” Saudi Deputy Crown Prince
Mohammad Bin Salman said in an interview to Al Arabiya Television. “I think by 2020, if oil stops
we can survive,” he added.
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The government is undertaking reforms as oil prices slump due to over production and weak
demand. In a landmark decision in December, the Saudi government cut subsidies and raised fuel
prices by 50 per cent.
“Being dependent of just one source of income makes an economy incredible vulnerable to price
shocks and makes forward planning very difficult,” said Ole Hansen, an analyst from Saxo Bank.
He said using the oil wealth to diversify is the only way forward for the economy to survive in the
long term.
“A fast growing population and no history of paying tax and jobs making little or no meaning,
requires changes in order to compete in the global market place.”
According to a report issued by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in
December it may take many years for oil prices to recover and reach the level of more than $110
per barrel witnessed in June 2014,
The oil producers group expects the price of its basket of crudes to rise to $70 a barrel in 2020
and $95 a barrel in 2040.
Analysts predicted an average price of $40 in 2016 and $45 in 2017. Brent, the global benchmark
was trading at less than $45 per barrel on Monday.
“The price of oil will bounce further as we move towards the end of 2016 and into 2017. Billions of
dollars of capex cut will eventually change the focus in the market from oversupply to the potential
lack of supply,” Hansen added.
In 2015, Saudi Arabia registered a budget deficit of 16 per cent of GDP and with government
reforms announced December 2015, Saudi Arabia is expected to register a budget deficit of 13
per cent of GDP.
3 Month Inter Bank Rate ( R1)
Brent oil prices ( L1 )
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What’s In Saudi Arabia’s Blueprint for Life After Oil?
Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman unveiled his “Saudi Vision 2030” to
reduce the kingdom’s reliance on oil.
The blueprint, approved by King Salman, includes plans to sell less than 5 percent of Saudi
Arabian Oil Co., or Aramco, the creation of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund and raising
non-oil revenue.
Here’s a guide to the main elements of the plan, announced on Monday in Riyadh and during
Prince Mohammed’s interview with Saudi-owned Arabiya television. The prince had disclosed
some of the proposals in two interviews with Bloomberg News.
Aramco IPO:
* While Aramco’s valuation hasn’t been completed, the company is expected to be worth more
than $2 trillion, the prince said, making the planned initial public offering the world’s biggest.
* “Aramco’s IPO would have several benefits, the most important of which is transparency,” he
said. “Aramco would have to announce its earnings every quarter. It will be observed by all Saudi
banks, all analysts and Saudi thinkers as well as all international banks and think tanks. You’ll
have great supervision overnight.”
Public Investment Fund:
* Saudi Arabia will create the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund to hold state assets, including
Aramco and real-estate, said the prince. Land will be developed and companies owning these
projects listed. The fund will be headquartered in King Abdullah Financial District.
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The $2 Trillion Project to Get Saudi Arabia’s Economy Off Oil Saudi $10 Billion Financial District Is
Missing One Thing: Banks Biggest Ever Saudi Overhaul Targets $100 Billion of Revenue
Military Industry:
* Saudi Arabia plans to set up a holding company by the end of next year for defense industries as
it seeks to meet more of its military needs domestically. The kingdom will also restructure several
contracts and tackle wasteful spending in the defense industry.
* “Our aim is to localize over 50 percent of military equipment spending. We have already begun
developing less complex industries such as those providing spare parts, armored vehicles and
basic ammunition,” according to the vision’s document. “We will expand this initiative to higher
value and more complex equipment such as military aircraft.”
* “We have a problem with military spending,” the prince told Al Arabiya. “When I enter a Saudi
military base, the floor is tiled with marble, the walls are decorated and the finishing is five stars. I
enter a base in the U.S., you can see the pipes in the ceiling, the floor is bare, no marble and no
carpets. It’s made of cement. Practical.”
Non-oil Economy
* The kingdom aims to generate 35 percent of the economy from small and medium enterprises,
up from 20 percent, according to the plan. It’s also plans to raise non-oil revenue to 1 trillion riyals
($266.6 billion) from 163 billion riyals.
* The kingdom also wants to reduce unemployment among Saudis to 7 percent from 11.6 percent,
according to the document.
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* Plan includes allowing expatriates to own property in selected areas, and simplifying visa
processes. The kingdom also aims to raise home-ownership rate to 52 percent by 2020 from 47
percent currently.
* “The demand for housing is extremely large. You are talking about 70 percent of Saudis below
30 years old. If we maintained 47-percent ownership rate that would be an achievement,” the
prince said. The housing ministry is working on plans to restructure sectors related to housing,
such as land taxes, advance sales, banking and finance lending procedures, he said.
Subsidies
* Seventy percent subsidies in 2015 benefited the rich, while low- and middle-income people
received only 30 percent, the prince said. “Rich man’s consumption of water and electricity equals
that of 10 or 20 families.”
*“There won’t be any major liberalization of energy prices unless there is a program that covers”
those who rely on subsidies, he said.
Government Restructuring
* Saudi Arabia has started to enhance government performance by “eliminating supreme councils
and establishing the Council of Political and Security Affairs as well as the Council of Economic
and Development Affairs,” according to a document released outlining the kingdom’s vision.
* The kingdom plans to continue restructuring the government “comprehensively and gradually,
based on our clear priorities.”
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Qatar Shell sees big potential for gas-to-liquids from Qatar
Gulf times
Europe's new specifications for paraffinic diesel fuels hold out promising potential for gas-to-
liquids (GTL) from Qatar, according to Shell.
The European Committee for Standardisation (CEN) announced that the ‘EN15940’ standard for
paraffinic diesel fuels, such as Shell Gas-to-Liquid (GTL) Fuel, was ratified on April 15, 2016.
Paraffinic diesel fuels are liquid fuels that can be synthetically manufactured from feed-stocks
such as natural gas (GTL), biomass (biomass-to-liquid), coal (coal-to-liquid) or from hydro-treating
vegetable oil (HVO).
Shell was involved in the nine-year consultation process, having first proposed the creation of a
specification in 2007, before the largest GTL facility, Pearl GTL, came on stream in Qatar.
‘EN15940’ will now create a standardised platform for markets to develop around paraffinic fuels.
These 100% finished fuels can be used as drop-in fuels and have the potential to improve local air
quality without the need for engine modifications or changes in existing fuel infrastructure,
according to a Shell spokesman.
“This is a significant milestone for our Shell GTL fuel business. EN15940 will now become the fuel
standard that is referred to when manufacturers and legislators stipulate conditions specifically
concerning use of paraffinic fuels," Michael Flynn, general manager for GTL Products at Shell,
said.
Manufacturers may now consider adding EN15940 to a list of approved fuels in their equipment
user manuals, he said, adding this will also bring quality and safety assurances to customers.
“Shell believes GTL Fuel will play an increasingly important role in the fuel mix for heavy duty
transport, be it road or marine, and machinery, especially in regions where governments are keen
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to improve local air emissions immediately. This new European standard opens more doors for
the use of cleaner burning Shell GTL fuel today,” Flynn added.
Shell GTL Fuel is part of the emerging paraffinic fuel market, offering a cleaner-burning alternative
fuel produced at Pearl GTL in Ras Laffan, Qatar, a partnership with Qatar Petroleum. This world-
scale plant produces 140,000 barrels per day of GTL products including Shell GTL Fuel.
Shell GTL Fuel can be used as a drop-in fuel in diesel engines without the need for engine
modifications, new infrastructure or vehicle investment. It is virtually sulphur-and aromatics free,
readily biodegradable and non-toxic.
It also helps reduce local emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter. It is commercially
available to customers in Europe, primarily in The Netherlands, Germany, United Kingdom,
Denmark and France.
Paraffinic fuels do not fully meet the EN590 specification because they have slightly lower density.
However, paraffinic fuels now offer significantly improved and favourable fuel properties. They
compensate for their low density with higher energy content and cetane number, and the higher
consistency of the fuel molecules mean they combust more uniformly in diesel engines compared
with conventional refinery diesel, resulting in lower emissions.
Shell has conducted several field trials on Shell GTL fuel in major cities around the world over the
past decade, covering over 1mn kilometres. Key market segments for Shell GTL fuel include city
utility vehicles and public transport, inland and seagoing marine vessels, construction machinery
and vehicles, power generation equipment, aviation ground fleets and rail.
It is currently being used by heavy-lifting and transport specialist, Mammoet and the City of
Groningen’s utility vehicles, both in the Netherlands; luxury river cruise operators on the Seine in
France; and the first GTL-fuelled offshore vessel, Kroonborg, in the North Sea, among many other
customers.
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Egypt: Energean completes 2D seismic survey onshore ahead of drilling
Source: Energean Oil & Gas
Energean Oil & Gas has completed a new 2D seismic survey over the West Baliana interior rift
basin at the North of West Komombo-Block 3 concession area, onshore Egypt. The survey
lasted 3 months and was conducted by Africa Geophysical Services. Energean acquired a total
of 389 km of 2D seismic data,
bringing the total coverage on the
block to 2,000 km. The survey was
conducted ahead of the two
exploration wells that are planned for
drilling within 2016. Preliminary
processing results and interpretation
on Line 50001 showed well
pronounced prospective structure
developments within the well
identified interior rift system at the
northern part of the Concession.
The new integrated study over the Sin
El Kaddab interior / Lacustrinal Rift
System at the southern part of the
concession, showed a well-developed
thick sedimentary sequence, partially
deeper than the adjacent oil
producing Komombo rift system. One
large prospective structure was seismically mapped over a deep seated/ well pronounced paleo-
Magnetic 4-ways dip closure. The mapped drilling location is surrounded by deeper depositional
area and is in direct drainage patterns of potential mature late Paleozoic-Jurassic source rocks.
Additional 16 sizeable HC structural Leads within reach to paleo Magnetic depositional
depocenters / Potential mature kitchen area were also, identified within Sin El Kaddab
sedimentary basin to be matured to prospective drilling locations upon reprocessing of previously
acquired seismic data by previous operators.
The West Komombo block is located in the South Central Desert in Upper Egypt; it covers an
area of 20,948 km2 and has a geological structure similar to the neighboring Al Baraka oil field,
where international oil companies have been producing hydrocarbons for several years.
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Turkmenistan Adding More Infrastructure to Increase Gas Supply to China
Asia Times
Turkmenistan will be able to increase export of natural gas to China after a new gas booster
station becomes operational, country’s oil ministry said. The facility with the capacity of 30 bcm
per year is being constructed at Turkmenistan's Malai gas field.
The field is located in Lebap Province of Turkmenistan, on the left bank of Amu Darya river. The
field is currently operated by Türkmengaz. Production from Malai field contributes to the overall
volume of gas transported via Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline.
State owned Turkmen nebit gazgurlushyk is building the booster station, the ministry said
Monday. The facility is designed to improve the technical and economic indicators of the initial
section of the main gas pipeline. It will help increase gas production at a reduced pressure in the
field.
According to the agreement signed between Turkmengaz and China National Petroleum
Corporation (CNPC) by the end of 2021, Turkmenistan will annually supply China with 65 bcm of
gas.
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Canada's Oil Rebound Elusive as Rig Count Drops to Record Low
Bloomberg - Josh Wingrove
Rig activity in Canada’s oil fields has reached a record low, weekly industry data show, a sign that
rebounding prices have yet to put an end to the industry’s woes.
The number of active rigs drilling in Canada fell to 37 this week, the lowest count ever according
to historical data provided by the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors, which dates
back to 1984. Only 6 percent of the country’s 671 oil rigs are currently in use.
The figures underscore the barriers to a turnaround in Canada’s oil patch, the one-time economic
engine whose slump has lowered growth projections in the country.
“It’s bad,” said John Bayko, vice president of communications for the Calgary-based association.
“Companies have had low cash flow or no cash flow for a long period of time. They’re in second,
third, fourth, fifth waves of consolidation and layoffs. They’re cutting and really there’s no more to
cut.”
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s budget last month was based on a forecast that West
Texas Intermediate crude would average $40 per barrel in 2016. WTI traded around $43 on
Monday and has averaged $35 so far this year. Even a sustained rebound, or a leveling-off, of
crude prices would not mean Canada’s conventional oil wells -- as opposed to its oil sands --
would turn around again, Bayko said.
“With our members, the momentum is going so hard in the other directions that a quick turnaround
in WTI prices isn’t going to reflect good things for drilling and service contractors right away,” he
said. The number of active rigs hit a record high of 741 in 2006. It touched a 2016 high of 214 rigs
in January. Of the 37 active rigs, 27 are in Alberta, eight are in British Columbia and two are in
Saskatchewan.
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NewBase 26 April 2016 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil futures stable with Brent at 44.84 and WTI at 42.85 U$/B
Crude oil futures rose early on Tuesday, pushed up by a weaker dollar and a flood of new cash
into the market, but analysts warned that fundamentals remain weak as a producer race for
customers heats up in the Middle East.
Front-month Brent crude futures were trading at $44.84 per barrel at 0054 GMT, up 36 cents from
their last settlement, and U.S. crudefutures gained 39 cents at $43.03.
Futures traders said prices had been lifted by a weaker dollar overnight, which potentially spurs
demand from fuel importers using other currencies than the greenback, in which crude is traded.
A rush of new investment into crude futures was also pushing up prices as speculators raised their
holdings of Brent futures to a record high.
Yet in physical markets, analysts warned of more supply as Saudi Arabia and Iran seemingly
ramp up output in a race for customers, further flooding the market with supplies that already
stand at 1 million to 2 million barrels of crude a day in excess of demand.
"Saudi Arabia announced that it will complete an expansion of its Shaybah oil field by June,
pushing capacity to 12 million barrels per day (bpd). Iran oil production has now increased by 1
million bpd since the beginning of the year, while Kuwait is expecting output to reach 3.15 million
bpd by June after the end of a workers strike," ANZ bank said on Tuesday.
Iran wants to get back to pre-sanction production of 4 million bpd.
Oil price special
coverage
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"The biggest bear risk to the oil market right now is that Iran's ramp-up accelerates and then that
Saudi Arabia does the same," Citi said.
Citi said the Saudis would not sit idle and watch Iran snap-up market share in hotly contested
Asia.
"If anyone had a doubt about Saudi Aramco's ability to use its logistical system and spot sales to
increase market share, its recent 730,000 barrel sale of a cargo to a Chinese teapot refiner in
Shandong should lay any doubts to rest," the bank said.
The cargo will be lifted in June from Aramco's storage in Japan's Okinawa prefecture and shipped
to China's eastern province of Shandong, Reuters reported on Monday.
"It looks increasingly likely that the Kingdom is targeting another 0.5 million bpd of sales, bringing
its production up to a steadier 11 million bpd or higher," Citi said.
Traders said that a looming gasoline glut in Asia also threatened the recent rise in crude prices as
refiners flood the market with unwanted products.
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NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 26 April 2016
$390bn fall in exports for Mena oil producers
Gulf Times - Pratap John
Export receipts in Middle East and North Africa (Mena) oil exporters have declined by $390bn last
year, which represents 17.5% of their GDP in 2015, an IMF report yesterday showed.
Despite a partial offset from reduced imports owing to subdued prices of non-oil commodities, the
combined current account of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) and Algeria has reversed from a
comfortable surplus to a projected deficit of about 8% of GDP in 2016.
The deficit of other Mena oil exporters is projected to be 4.75% of GDP this year, the International
Monetary Fund said.
The current account is expected to improve only gradually over the medium term, as the oil price
recovers somewhat and fiscal adjustment unfolds. Mirroring the large loss in export receipts, fiscal
balances have deteriorated considerably. The ample surpluses of the GCC countries and Algeria
have turned into significant deficits, projected to average 12.75% of GDP (Gross Domestic
Product) in 2016 and remain at 7% over the medium term, despite the implementation of sizeable
deficit-reduction measures.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20
For other Mena oil exporters - those generally less reliant on oil but with smaller fiscal buffers - the
combined deficit is projected to average 7.75% of GDP in 2016, and gradually close by the end of
the decade as oil output increases and conflicts are assumed to ease.
“The outlook for lower oil prices implies weak oil revenues for years to come, dramatically
reducing the capacity of governments to spend,” the IMF said.
Oil prices have shed some 70% from their mid-2014 peak value to $40 a barrel. The IMF said
markets expect prices to recover modestly to $50 by the end of this decade.
Over the past decade, Mena oil exporters enjoyed large external and fiscal surpluses and rapid
economic expansion on the back of booming oil prices. However, with oil prices plunging in recent
years, surpluses have turned into deficits and growth has slowed, raising concerns about
unemployment and financial risks.
The oil price drop since mid-2014 has been spectacular: Prices have fallen nearly 70% to about
$40 a barrel. Futures markets anticipate oil prices to recover only modestly to $50 a barrel by the
end of this decade, though much uncertainty surrounds this forecast.
The weak price prospects reflect the expectation that global oil supply growth will moderate only
slowly as Iran boosts its exports and other Mena oil exporters maintain high output, at a time of
sluggish global growth.
“For most Mena oil exporters, the fiscal adjustment needed to absorb the oil price shock is
unprecedented,” the IMF said.
Last year, many countries adopted significant deficit reduction measures, while drawing down
financial buffers, where available, or borrowing to smooth the adjustment to lower oil prices.
The bulk of this adjustment has so far comprised spending cuts, however, new sources of revenue
are also being considered. Algeria, Iraq, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and, to a lesser extent, Oman
have focused on capital spending cuts.
Current spending reductions are an important part of the adjustment process in Bahrain, Oman,
and Qatar, the IMF added.
C R E D I T : R E Z A / C O N T R I B U T O R
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 21
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations
and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 26 April 2016 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 22
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 23

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New base energy news issue 838 dated 26 april 2016

  • 1. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 26 April 2016 - Issue No. 838 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Saudi Arabia economic transformation as Drop in oil prices force reforms for after oil era News Agencies + NewBase the country unveiled a raft of economic targets that the deputy crown prince said will allow the country to wean itself off a reliance on oil by 2020. The Tadawul, which had been in the red, rallied to finish up 2.5 per cent at the close after Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke of the country’s vision for 2030 in an interview with Dubai-based Al Arabiya. Vision 2030’s ambitious targets include selling up to 5 per cent of Saudi Aramco, creating a sovereign wealth fund with 7 trillion Saudi riyals (Dh6.85tn) in assets, and generating 97 billion riyals from the mining industry by 2020, the prince told Al Arabiya. “This obviously is set to restore confidence and optimism in the general economy and this will be reflected of course in the stock market," said Rami Sidani, the head of frontier investments at the asset manager Schroders. “But we look for the long-term impact of this plan, which is said to trickle down to across the different sectors of the economy, especially given the increase in
  • 2. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 efficiency as you reduce dependency on subsidies and government spending and the increased involvement of the private sector." The plan also envisions boosting private-sector contribution to GDP to 65 per cent and boosting non-oil exports to 50 per cent of GDP by 2030, Al Arabiya reported. Non-oil revenue will also be boosted from 136bn riyals to 1tn riyals by 2030, the channel said. The vision also projects lowering the unemployment rate to 7 per cent from 12 per cent. “I think that the targets are far more reasonable than markets initially expected," said John Sfakianakis, the director of economic research at the Riyadh-based Gulf Research Centre. “I think the targets are realistic as long as the commitments and sustainability are there from the government side and of course from also the private sector." Saudi Arabia began reforms late last year, which the prince called “a quick fix", that will continue this year to help steer the economy through the low oil price era. These reforms included raising prices of energy products, water and electricity and trimming spending to clamp down on a fiscal deficit that had reached 367bn riyals. But these quick fixes will be accompanied by medium-term programmes aimed at lowering the fiscal deficit, which is projected to fall this year to 326.2bn riyals. The programme also included incentives for the private sector to fill the gap created by reductions in government spending, currently the main driver for economic growth.Already the IMF has lowered the country’s growth forecast to 1.2 per cent this year from 3.4 per cent last year, as the oil price plunge takes its toll on the economy. “While reforms could accelerate growth through increased foreign investment, it will take some time for this to materialise," said Giyas Gokkent, the senior economist for the Middle East and Africa at the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
  • 3. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 “Privatisation could be key to attracting foreign investment inflows and be a significant source for one-off revenues, which could amount to more than 30 per cent of GDP over the medium to long term. However, the pace at which privatisation will be executed remains to be seen." “A number of measures could involve fiscal headwinds which may create political challenges." The IIF is forecasting a growth rate of 1.4 per cent for Saudi Arabia and a fiscal deficit reaching 14.2 per cent of GDP for this year. Almost eight decades after oil was first found in Saudi Arabia, the government has unveiled a blueprint for an economy less reliant on crude sales to fuel growth and fund infrastructure. Four charts show the challenges the kingdom faces and the probable impact of the new policy. Initial Pain The government has cut spending to shore up its public finances while seeking an alternative source of revenue. Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman says authorities want to generate$100 billion per year in additional non-oil revenue by 2020. Reducing subsidies for gasoline, electricity and water will account for $30 billion of that amount, while a new value-added tax will generate $10 billion a year. But while investors are likely to welcome the plan, Saudi Arabia won’t be able to escape some pain as it’s implemented. Economists in a Bloomberg survey predict growth will slow this year as cuts to government spending -- the engine of growth in recent years -- take a toll on the private sector. Non-oil growth will slow to 1.6 percent this year from 3.6 percent in 2015, according to International Monetary Fund forecasts.
  • 4. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Budget Scrutiny Even with $100 dollar oil filling public coffers, Saudi Arabia typically overspent by an average of 25 to 30 percent a year as budget planners looked first at revenue before deciding how much to spend, Minister of State Mohammad Al-Sheikh said in an interview last month. Future budgets will face more scrutiny and the process has been revamped to consider actual spending needs before funds are allocated, he said. As a result, Saudi Arabia will be able to sustain spending growth of 3 to 5 percent a year, with the budget balanced by 2020. Debt Financing The country’s ratio of debt to economic output, the world’s lowest in 2014, is expected to increase to over 25 percent by 2017, according to the International Monetary Fund, which said in October that the kingdom risked wiping out its financial reserves in five years. In fact, the situation was much worse. "They were going to be wiped out in less than two years if we continued at the same spending level," Minister of State Mohammad Al-Sheikh said in an interview last month. Saudi Arabia’s cost of borrowing is rising just as it prepares an international bond sale to reduce pressure on reserves. Its rating was lowered one level to AA-, the fourth-highest investment
  • 5. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 grade, by Fitch Ratings earlier this month, following cuts by Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s this year. Oil Prices Key While spending cuts mean the kingdom will no longer need $100 oil to balance the budget, the nation’s dependency will be hard to shake. Oil accounted for more than 70 percent of state revenue in 2015, and the IMF predicts a budget break-even price of $67 this year -- still well above current levels.
  • 6. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Outsized Offering A key part of Saudi Arabia’s plan is to sell less than 5 percent of state-run oil company Saudi Aramco, potentially the world’s biggest initial public offering. Even a small stake would dominate the tightly regulated Saudi stock market, the Tadawul, which has a capitalization of about $409 billion. Prince Mohammed told Bloomberg this month that the kingdom is considering a dual listing as a way to reach investors beyond the local stock market. While Aramco’s valuation hasn’t been completed, the company is expected to be worth more than $2 trillion, the prince told Al Arabiya television on Monday. In the long run, the new measures announced by the government will benefit the economy, expert says The record drop in oil prices from more than $110 per barrel in 2014 to less than $40 per barrel this year has forced the Saudi government to reform its economy and look beyond oil, analysts said on Monday. “There is no doubt that low oil prices is the main reason why Saudi Arabia is undertaking reforms to diversify its economy. In the long run, the new measures announced by the government will benefit the economy,” said Edward Bell, commodity analyst from Emirates NBD. As part of the new reforms announced on Monday, tourism will be encouraged and new industries will be set up. “We have developed a case of oil addiction in Saudi Arabia,” Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman said in an interview to Al Arabiya Television. “I think by 2020, if oil stops we can survive,” he added.
  • 7. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 The government is undertaking reforms as oil prices slump due to over production and weak demand. In a landmark decision in December, the Saudi government cut subsidies and raised fuel prices by 50 per cent. “Being dependent of just one source of income makes an economy incredible vulnerable to price shocks and makes forward planning very difficult,” said Ole Hansen, an analyst from Saxo Bank. He said using the oil wealth to diversify is the only way forward for the economy to survive in the long term. “A fast growing population and no history of paying tax and jobs making little or no meaning, requires changes in order to compete in the global market place.” According to a report issued by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in December it may take many years for oil prices to recover and reach the level of more than $110 per barrel witnessed in June 2014, The oil producers group expects the price of its basket of crudes to rise to $70 a barrel in 2020 and $95 a barrel in 2040. Analysts predicted an average price of $40 in 2016 and $45 in 2017. Brent, the global benchmark was trading at less than $45 per barrel on Monday. “The price of oil will bounce further as we move towards the end of 2016 and into 2017. Billions of dollars of capex cut will eventually change the focus in the market from oversupply to the potential lack of supply,” Hansen added. In 2015, Saudi Arabia registered a budget deficit of 16 per cent of GDP and with government reforms announced December 2015, Saudi Arabia is expected to register a budget deficit of 13 per cent of GDP. 3 Month Inter Bank Rate ( R1) Brent oil prices ( L1 )
  • 8. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 What’s In Saudi Arabia’s Blueprint for Life After Oil? Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman unveiled his “Saudi Vision 2030” to reduce the kingdom’s reliance on oil. The blueprint, approved by King Salman, includes plans to sell less than 5 percent of Saudi Arabian Oil Co., or Aramco, the creation of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund and raising non-oil revenue. Here’s a guide to the main elements of the plan, announced on Monday in Riyadh and during Prince Mohammed’s interview with Saudi-owned Arabiya television. The prince had disclosed some of the proposals in two interviews with Bloomberg News. Aramco IPO: * While Aramco’s valuation hasn’t been completed, the company is expected to be worth more than $2 trillion, the prince said, making the planned initial public offering the world’s biggest. * “Aramco’s IPO would have several benefits, the most important of which is transparency,” he said. “Aramco would have to announce its earnings every quarter. It will be observed by all Saudi banks, all analysts and Saudi thinkers as well as all international banks and think tanks. You’ll have great supervision overnight.” Public Investment Fund: * Saudi Arabia will create the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund to hold state assets, including Aramco and real-estate, said the prince. Land will be developed and companies owning these projects listed. The fund will be headquartered in King Abdullah Financial District.
  • 9. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 The $2 Trillion Project to Get Saudi Arabia’s Economy Off Oil Saudi $10 Billion Financial District Is Missing One Thing: Banks Biggest Ever Saudi Overhaul Targets $100 Billion of Revenue Military Industry: * Saudi Arabia plans to set up a holding company by the end of next year for defense industries as it seeks to meet more of its military needs domestically. The kingdom will also restructure several contracts and tackle wasteful spending in the defense industry. * “Our aim is to localize over 50 percent of military equipment spending. We have already begun developing less complex industries such as those providing spare parts, armored vehicles and basic ammunition,” according to the vision’s document. “We will expand this initiative to higher value and more complex equipment such as military aircraft.” * “We have a problem with military spending,” the prince told Al Arabiya. “When I enter a Saudi military base, the floor is tiled with marble, the walls are decorated and the finishing is five stars. I enter a base in the U.S., you can see the pipes in the ceiling, the floor is bare, no marble and no carpets. It’s made of cement. Practical.” Non-oil Economy * The kingdom aims to generate 35 percent of the economy from small and medium enterprises, up from 20 percent, according to the plan. It’s also plans to raise non-oil revenue to 1 trillion riyals ($266.6 billion) from 163 billion riyals. * The kingdom also wants to reduce unemployment among Saudis to 7 percent from 11.6 percent, according to the document.
  • 10. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 * Plan includes allowing expatriates to own property in selected areas, and simplifying visa processes. The kingdom also aims to raise home-ownership rate to 52 percent by 2020 from 47 percent currently. * “The demand for housing is extremely large. You are talking about 70 percent of Saudis below 30 years old. If we maintained 47-percent ownership rate that would be an achievement,” the prince said. The housing ministry is working on plans to restructure sectors related to housing, such as land taxes, advance sales, banking and finance lending procedures, he said. Subsidies * Seventy percent subsidies in 2015 benefited the rich, while low- and middle-income people received only 30 percent, the prince said. “Rich man’s consumption of water and electricity equals that of 10 or 20 families.” *“There won’t be any major liberalization of energy prices unless there is a program that covers” those who rely on subsidies, he said. Government Restructuring * Saudi Arabia has started to enhance government performance by “eliminating supreme councils and establishing the Council of Political and Security Affairs as well as the Council of Economic and Development Affairs,” according to a document released outlining the kingdom’s vision. * The kingdom plans to continue restructuring the government “comprehensively and gradually, based on our clear priorities.”
  • 11. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 Qatar Shell sees big potential for gas-to-liquids from Qatar Gulf times Europe's new specifications for paraffinic diesel fuels hold out promising potential for gas-to- liquids (GTL) from Qatar, according to Shell. The European Committee for Standardisation (CEN) announced that the ‘EN15940’ standard for paraffinic diesel fuels, such as Shell Gas-to-Liquid (GTL) Fuel, was ratified on April 15, 2016. Paraffinic diesel fuels are liquid fuels that can be synthetically manufactured from feed-stocks such as natural gas (GTL), biomass (biomass-to-liquid), coal (coal-to-liquid) or from hydro-treating vegetable oil (HVO). Shell was involved in the nine-year consultation process, having first proposed the creation of a specification in 2007, before the largest GTL facility, Pearl GTL, came on stream in Qatar. ‘EN15940’ will now create a standardised platform for markets to develop around paraffinic fuels. These 100% finished fuels can be used as drop-in fuels and have the potential to improve local air quality without the need for engine modifications or changes in existing fuel infrastructure, according to a Shell spokesman. “This is a significant milestone for our Shell GTL fuel business. EN15940 will now become the fuel standard that is referred to when manufacturers and legislators stipulate conditions specifically concerning use of paraffinic fuels," Michael Flynn, general manager for GTL Products at Shell, said. Manufacturers may now consider adding EN15940 to a list of approved fuels in their equipment user manuals, he said, adding this will also bring quality and safety assurances to customers. “Shell believes GTL Fuel will play an increasingly important role in the fuel mix for heavy duty transport, be it road or marine, and machinery, especially in regions where governments are keen
  • 12. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 to improve local air emissions immediately. This new European standard opens more doors for the use of cleaner burning Shell GTL fuel today,” Flynn added. Shell GTL Fuel is part of the emerging paraffinic fuel market, offering a cleaner-burning alternative fuel produced at Pearl GTL in Ras Laffan, Qatar, a partnership with Qatar Petroleum. This world- scale plant produces 140,000 barrels per day of GTL products including Shell GTL Fuel. Shell GTL Fuel can be used as a drop-in fuel in diesel engines without the need for engine modifications, new infrastructure or vehicle investment. It is virtually sulphur-and aromatics free, readily biodegradable and non-toxic. It also helps reduce local emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter. It is commercially available to customers in Europe, primarily in The Netherlands, Germany, United Kingdom, Denmark and France. Paraffinic fuels do not fully meet the EN590 specification because they have slightly lower density. However, paraffinic fuels now offer significantly improved and favourable fuel properties. They compensate for their low density with higher energy content and cetane number, and the higher consistency of the fuel molecules mean they combust more uniformly in diesel engines compared with conventional refinery diesel, resulting in lower emissions. Shell has conducted several field trials on Shell GTL fuel in major cities around the world over the past decade, covering over 1mn kilometres. Key market segments for Shell GTL fuel include city utility vehicles and public transport, inland and seagoing marine vessels, construction machinery and vehicles, power generation equipment, aviation ground fleets and rail. It is currently being used by heavy-lifting and transport specialist, Mammoet and the City of Groningen’s utility vehicles, both in the Netherlands; luxury river cruise operators on the Seine in France; and the first GTL-fuelled offshore vessel, Kroonborg, in the North Sea, among many other customers.
  • 13. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 Egypt: Energean completes 2D seismic survey onshore ahead of drilling Source: Energean Oil & Gas Energean Oil & Gas has completed a new 2D seismic survey over the West Baliana interior rift basin at the North of West Komombo-Block 3 concession area, onshore Egypt. The survey lasted 3 months and was conducted by Africa Geophysical Services. Energean acquired a total of 389 km of 2D seismic data, bringing the total coverage on the block to 2,000 km. The survey was conducted ahead of the two exploration wells that are planned for drilling within 2016. Preliminary processing results and interpretation on Line 50001 showed well pronounced prospective structure developments within the well identified interior rift system at the northern part of the Concession. The new integrated study over the Sin El Kaddab interior / Lacustrinal Rift System at the southern part of the concession, showed a well-developed thick sedimentary sequence, partially deeper than the adjacent oil producing Komombo rift system. One large prospective structure was seismically mapped over a deep seated/ well pronounced paleo- Magnetic 4-ways dip closure. The mapped drilling location is surrounded by deeper depositional area and is in direct drainage patterns of potential mature late Paleozoic-Jurassic source rocks. Additional 16 sizeable HC structural Leads within reach to paleo Magnetic depositional depocenters / Potential mature kitchen area were also, identified within Sin El Kaddab sedimentary basin to be matured to prospective drilling locations upon reprocessing of previously acquired seismic data by previous operators. The West Komombo block is located in the South Central Desert in Upper Egypt; it covers an area of 20,948 km2 and has a geological structure similar to the neighboring Al Baraka oil field, where international oil companies have been producing hydrocarbons for several years.
  • 14. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 Turkmenistan Adding More Infrastructure to Increase Gas Supply to China Asia Times Turkmenistan will be able to increase export of natural gas to China after a new gas booster station becomes operational, country’s oil ministry said. The facility with the capacity of 30 bcm per year is being constructed at Turkmenistan's Malai gas field. The field is located in Lebap Province of Turkmenistan, on the left bank of Amu Darya river. The field is currently operated by Türkmengaz. Production from Malai field contributes to the overall volume of gas transported via Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline. State owned Turkmen nebit gazgurlushyk is building the booster station, the ministry said Monday. The facility is designed to improve the technical and economic indicators of the initial section of the main gas pipeline. It will help increase gas production at a reduced pressure in the field. According to the agreement signed between Turkmengaz and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) by the end of 2021, Turkmenistan will annually supply China with 65 bcm of gas.
  • 15. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15
  • 16. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 Canada's Oil Rebound Elusive as Rig Count Drops to Record Low Bloomberg - Josh Wingrove Rig activity in Canada’s oil fields has reached a record low, weekly industry data show, a sign that rebounding prices have yet to put an end to the industry’s woes. The number of active rigs drilling in Canada fell to 37 this week, the lowest count ever according to historical data provided by the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors, which dates back to 1984. Only 6 percent of the country’s 671 oil rigs are currently in use. The figures underscore the barriers to a turnaround in Canada’s oil patch, the one-time economic engine whose slump has lowered growth projections in the country. “It’s bad,” said John Bayko, vice president of communications for the Calgary-based association. “Companies have had low cash flow or no cash flow for a long period of time. They’re in second, third, fourth, fifth waves of consolidation and layoffs. They’re cutting and really there’s no more to cut.” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s budget last month was based on a forecast that West Texas Intermediate crude would average $40 per barrel in 2016. WTI traded around $43 on Monday and has averaged $35 so far this year. Even a sustained rebound, or a leveling-off, of crude prices would not mean Canada’s conventional oil wells -- as opposed to its oil sands -- would turn around again, Bayko said. “With our members, the momentum is going so hard in the other directions that a quick turnaround in WTI prices isn’t going to reflect good things for drilling and service contractors right away,” he said. The number of active rigs hit a record high of 741 in 2006. It touched a 2016 high of 214 rigs in January. Of the 37 active rigs, 27 are in Alberta, eight are in British Columbia and two are in Saskatchewan.
  • 17. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 NewBase 26 April 2016 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Oil futures stable with Brent at 44.84 and WTI at 42.85 U$/B Crude oil futures rose early on Tuesday, pushed up by a weaker dollar and a flood of new cash into the market, but analysts warned that fundamentals remain weak as a producer race for customers heats up in the Middle East. Front-month Brent crude futures were trading at $44.84 per barrel at 0054 GMT, up 36 cents from their last settlement, and U.S. crudefutures gained 39 cents at $43.03. Futures traders said prices had been lifted by a weaker dollar overnight, which potentially spurs demand from fuel importers using other currencies than the greenback, in which crude is traded. A rush of new investment into crude futures was also pushing up prices as speculators raised their holdings of Brent futures to a record high. Yet in physical markets, analysts warned of more supply as Saudi Arabia and Iran seemingly ramp up output in a race for customers, further flooding the market with supplies that already stand at 1 million to 2 million barrels of crude a day in excess of demand. "Saudi Arabia announced that it will complete an expansion of its Shaybah oil field by June, pushing capacity to 12 million barrels per day (bpd). Iran oil production has now increased by 1 million bpd since the beginning of the year, while Kuwait is expecting output to reach 3.15 million bpd by June after the end of a workers strike," ANZ bank said on Tuesday. Iran wants to get back to pre-sanction production of 4 million bpd. Oil price special coverage
  • 18. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18 "The biggest bear risk to the oil market right now is that Iran's ramp-up accelerates and then that Saudi Arabia does the same," Citi said. Citi said the Saudis would not sit idle and watch Iran snap-up market share in hotly contested Asia. "If anyone had a doubt about Saudi Aramco's ability to use its logistical system and spot sales to increase market share, its recent 730,000 barrel sale of a cargo to a Chinese teapot refiner in Shandong should lay any doubts to rest," the bank said. The cargo will be lifted in June from Aramco's storage in Japan's Okinawa prefecture and shipped to China's eastern province of Shandong, Reuters reported on Monday. "It looks increasingly likely that the Kingdom is targeting another 0.5 million bpd of sales, bringing its production up to a steadier 11 million bpd or higher," Citi said. Traders said that a looming gasoline glut in Asia also threatened the recent rise in crude prices as refiners flood the market with unwanted products.
  • 19. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release 26 April 2016 $390bn fall in exports for Mena oil producers Gulf Times - Pratap John Export receipts in Middle East and North Africa (Mena) oil exporters have declined by $390bn last year, which represents 17.5% of their GDP in 2015, an IMF report yesterday showed. Despite a partial offset from reduced imports owing to subdued prices of non-oil commodities, the combined current account of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) and Algeria has reversed from a comfortable surplus to a projected deficit of about 8% of GDP in 2016. The deficit of other Mena oil exporters is projected to be 4.75% of GDP this year, the International Monetary Fund said. The current account is expected to improve only gradually over the medium term, as the oil price recovers somewhat and fiscal adjustment unfolds. Mirroring the large loss in export receipts, fiscal balances have deteriorated considerably. The ample surpluses of the GCC countries and Algeria have turned into significant deficits, projected to average 12.75% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2016 and remain at 7% over the medium term, despite the implementation of sizeable deficit-reduction measures.
  • 20. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20 For other Mena oil exporters - those generally less reliant on oil but with smaller fiscal buffers - the combined deficit is projected to average 7.75% of GDP in 2016, and gradually close by the end of the decade as oil output increases and conflicts are assumed to ease. “The outlook for lower oil prices implies weak oil revenues for years to come, dramatically reducing the capacity of governments to spend,” the IMF said. Oil prices have shed some 70% from their mid-2014 peak value to $40 a barrel. The IMF said markets expect prices to recover modestly to $50 by the end of this decade. Over the past decade, Mena oil exporters enjoyed large external and fiscal surpluses and rapid economic expansion on the back of booming oil prices. However, with oil prices plunging in recent years, surpluses have turned into deficits and growth has slowed, raising concerns about unemployment and financial risks. The oil price drop since mid-2014 has been spectacular: Prices have fallen nearly 70% to about $40 a barrel. Futures markets anticipate oil prices to recover only modestly to $50 a barrel by the end of this decade, though much uncertainty surrounds this forecast. The weak price prospects reflect the expectation that global oil supply growth will moderate only slowly as Iran boosts its exports and other Mena oil exporters maintain high output, at a time of sluggish global growth. “For most Mena oil exporters, the fiscal adjustment needed to absorb the oil price shock is unprecedented,” the IMF said. Last year, many countries adopted significant deficit reduction measures, while drawing down financial buffers, where available, or borrowing to smooth the adjustment to lower oil prices. The bulk of this adjustment has so far comprised spending cuts, however, new sources of revenue are also being considered. Algeria, Iraq, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and, to a lesser extent, Oman have focused on capital spending cuts. Current spending reductions are an important part of the adjustment process in Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar, the IMF added. C R E D I T : R E Z A / C O N T R I B U T O R
  • 21. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 21 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 26 April 2016 K. Al Awadi
  • 22. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 22
  • 23. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 23