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Myanmar
Bart Minten
Program leader, Myanmar country program
International Food Policy Research Institute
25/03/2022
Background Myanmar
▪ One of the poorest countries in South-East Asia
▪ Country’s economy hit hard over last year by twin crises:
1. covid-19
2. political turmoil
▪ 14.4 million people in humanitarian need (out of 55 million) (UN)
▪ Rice main staple: 1. About 60% of the calories of people
2. Half of cropland (in monsoon season)
▪ A rice exporting country
Rice prices
Over the last 12 months:
▪ Internationally: prices down (Thai
rice decrease of 19%)
▪ In Myanmar:
1/ Large increases at retail
(difference secure and conflict-
affected areas)
2/ Small increases at the farm level
3/ Increase in marketing costs (more
in secure areas)
0
5
10
15
20
Conflict-affected Secure National
%
Rice price changes (%)
Change 02/03-2022 versus 02/03-2021
Retail Farm
Fertilizer prices
▪ Biggest commercial input for farms
▪ Two years ago: 400 million usd imports;
prices now 3.3 times as much
▪ Most fertilizer for rice but farm prices
changed little -> less use of fertilizer
-> contraction rice (and ag.) sector
▪ If reduction of fertilizer to half its normal
level, agricultural output declines by 9-
12%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
1000
MMK/bag
of
urea
Local fertilizer prices
(approximate)

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Myanmar

  • 1. Myanmar Bart Minten Program leader, Myanmar country program International Food Policy Research Institute 25/03/2022
  • 2. Background Myanmar ▪ One of the poorest countries in South-East Asia ▪ Country’s economy hit hard over last year by twin crises: 1. covid-19 2. political turmoil ▪ 14.4 million people in humanitarian need (out of 55 million) (UN) ▪ Rice main staple: 1. About 60% of the calories of people 2. Half of cropland (in monsoon season) ▪ A rice exporting country
  • 3. Rice prices Over the last 12 months: ▪ Internationally: prices down (Thai rice decrease of 19%) ▪ In Myanmar: 1/ Large increases at retail (difference secure and conflict- affected areas) 2/ Small increases at the farm level 3/ Increase in marketing costs (more in secure areas) 0 5 10 15 20 Conflict-affected Secure National % Rice price changes (%) Change 02/03-2022 versus 02/03-2021 Retail Farm
  • 4. Fertilizer prices ▪ Biggest commercial input for farms ▪ Two years ago: 400 million usd imports; prices now 3.3 times as much ▪ Most fertilizer for rice but farm prices changed little -> less use of fertilizer -> contraction rice (and ag.) sector ▪ If reduction of fertilizer to half its normal level, agricultural output declines by 9- 12% 0 20 40 60 80 100 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 1000 MMK/bag of urea Local fertilizer prices (approximate)